Causal layered analysis
|Technology assessment and forecasting|
Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a technique used in strategic planning, futures studies and foresight to more effectively shape the future. The technique was pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futures studies researcher.
Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper as well as his TEDx talk identify four levels:
- The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."
- Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
- Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
- Metaphor and myth
History of research
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited. Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.
Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.
Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015. With various authors, they investigate topics such as:
- The Global Financial Crisis
- Terrorism futures
- Global governance
- Ageing and the changing workforce
- Educational and university futures
- Climate change
- Water futures in the Muslim world
- The alternative futures of China
- Agricultural policy in Australia
- The new national narrative in Singapore
- Inayatullah, Sohail (January–February 2014). "Causal Layered Analysis Defined". The Futurist. World Future Society. 48 (1). Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- "Causal Layered Analysis". Scenarios for Sustainability Recipes. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- Inayatullah, Sohail (October 1998). "Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method" (PDF). Futures. 30 (8): 815–829. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00086-X. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 14, 2014. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- Inayatullah, Sohail (May 12, 2013). "Causal Layered Analysis: Sohail Inayatullah at TEDxNoosa". YouTube. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- "The Causal Layered Analysis Reader". Metafuture.org. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- "The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology" (PDF). Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- Ramos, Jose W. (2003). "From critique to cultural recovery: critical futures studies and casual layered analysis". Australian Foresight Institute. Archived from the original on 2014-07-14. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- Riedy, Chris (March 2008). "An Integral extension of causal layered analysis" (PDF). Futures. Elsevier. 40 (2): 150–159. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.11.009. hdl:10453/9782.
- Hampson, Gary P. (March 2010). "Futures of integral futures: An analysis of Richard Slaughter's analysis of Causal Layered Analysis" (PDF). Futures. 42 (2): 134–148. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.09.006. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- "CLA 2.0 Transformative Research in Theory and Practice". 2015.