Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018

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Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018

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  RMD-Offical-Headshot (cropped).jpg Richard Cordray official portrait (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Mike DeWine Richard Cordray
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jon Husted Betty Sutton
Popular vote 2,231,917 2,067,847
Percentage 50.4% 46.7%

Ohio Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results

DeWine:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%

Cordray:      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

John Kasich
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike DeWine
Republican

The 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Ohio, concurrently with the election of Ohio's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various Ohio and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor John Kasich is term-limited and cannot seek reelection to a third consecutive term.

The Republicans nominated Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine and the Democratic nominee is former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray. This was the second face off for DeWine and Cordray, following the 2010 election for Attorney General where DeWine won by 47.5% to 46.3%.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Mike DeWine
U.S. Presidents
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[8] (For the General Election Only)
U.S. Vice Presidents
  • Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[9] (For the General Election Only)
Notable individuals
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State representatives
County parties
State parties
Organizations
Newspapers
Jim Renacci (withdrawn)
Organizations
  • Asian American GOP Coalition[42]
  • Bikers for Trump[43]
  • Citizens for Trump[43]
Notable individuals
Mary Taylor
U.S. Senators
Governors
Lieutenant Governors
Statewide Officials
Notable Individuals
State Senators
State Representatives
County Parties
Party leaders
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
Mary
Taylor
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 323 52% 24% 25%
Remington Research Group (R-Taylor) April 10, 2018 1,064 ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Fallon Research April 4–7, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 43% 26% 31%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 541 ± 5.8% 50% 18% 31%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) February 17, 2018 1,152 ± 3.0% 61% 39%
35% 16% 15% 33%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 286 54% 14% 32%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  DeWine—70–80%
  DeWine—60–70%
  DeWine—50–60%
  Taylor—50–60%
Republican primary results[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike DeWine 494,766 59.8
Republican Mary Taylor 332,273 40.2
Total votes 827,039 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Failed to qualify for ballot[edit]

  • Jon Heavey, physician[77]
  • Dave Kiefer, former Wayne County Commissioner and Republican candidate for state representative in 2016[78]

Withdrew[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Richard Cordray
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Representatives
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Notable individuals
Newspapers
Dennis Kucinich
Organizations
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
County officials
City Council Members
Notable individuals
Newspapers
Joe Schiavoni
Political organizations
Labor unions
Notable individuals
Connie Pillich (withdrawn)
Governors
  • Ed Rendell, (former) Governor of Pennsylvania and (former) Democratic National Committee Chairman
State Representatives
Mayors
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Betty Sutton (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Nan Whaley (withdrawn)
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Labor unions
  • Dayton Building & Construction Trades Council[121]
  • IUE-CWA - International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers[146]
  • Ohio State Council of Machinists[147]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Cordray
Dennis
Kucinich
Bill
O'Neill
Connie
Pillich
Joe
Schiavoni
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 333 31% 15% 6% 6% 41%
Fallon Research April 4–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 28% 13% 3% 5% 1%[A] 51%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 509 ± 5.3% 21% 21% 4% 5% 3%[B] 46%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 248 23% 16% 3% 2% 4% 52%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Cordray—70–80%
  Cordray—60–70%
  Cordray—50–60%
  Cordray—40–50%
  Schiavoni—40–50%
  Schiavoni—60–70%
Democratic primary results[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Richard Cordray 423,264 62.3
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 155,694 22.9
Democratic Joe Schiavoni 62,315 9.2
Democratic Bill O'Neill 22,196 3.3
Democratic Paul Ray 9,373 1.4
Democratic Larry Ealy 6,896 1.0
Total votes 679,738 100.0

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Travis Irvine, filmmaker and writer[148]
    • Running mate: Todd Grayson[149]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Bruce Jaynes, entreprenuer
  • Stephen Quinn, student

Green primary[edit]

Gadell-Newton

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Constance Gadell-Newton, attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016[150]
    • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

  • Constance Gadell-Newton (Green), attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016
    • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph, attorney, educator and small businessman

Endorsements[edit]

Richard Cordray (D)
Former federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Representatives
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike DeWine (R)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Sentaors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Debates[edit]

The first debate was held on September 19, 2018. It featured only half of the participants in this election. As a result of this a complaint has been filed by the Ohio Libertarian party.[183] The complaint alleges that hosting the September 19 debate amounted to an illegal campaign contribution to DeWine and Cordray from UD.[184]

Host
network/sponsors
Location Date Link(s) Possible Participants
Richard
Cordray (D)
Mike
DeWine (R)
Travis Irvine (L) Constance Gadell-Newton (G)
WHIO-TV University of Dayton September 19, 2018 [185] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
WCMH-TV Marietta College October 1, 2018 [186] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
Ohio Debate Commission Cleveland State University October 8, 2018 [187] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited

[188]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[189] Tossup September 14, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[190] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[191] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[192] Tossup September 14, 2018
Daily Kos[193] Tossup September 5, 2018
Fox News[194][a] Tossup October 10, 2018
Politico[195] Tossup October 9, 2018
Governing[196] Tossup October 2, 2018
The Washington Post[197] Tossup October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[198] Lean D October 17, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
(R)
Richard
Cordray
(D)
Travis
Irvine
(L)
Constance
Gadell-
Newton (G)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 923 43% 48% 5% 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–4, 2018 1,948 ± 2.2% 42% 46% 7% 5%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Cygnal (R) October 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% 9%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 43% 48% 9%
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 566 ± 4.3% 46% 49% 2% 3%
Baldwin Wallace University October 19–27, 2018 1,051 ± 3.8% 39% 39% 4% 2% 16%
41% 42% 17%
Suffolk University October 4–8, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 2% 0% 0%[C] 10%
Baldwin Wallace University September 8 – October 8, 2018 1,017 ± 3.5% 40% 37% 4% 3% 15%
42% 39% 19%
University of Akron September 10 – October 4, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 36% 27%
Ipsos September 13–21, 2018 1,074 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 2% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 18–20, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 8%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 5.0% 44% 44% 3% 3% <1% 6%
47% 47% 1% 6%
796 RV ± 4.2% 42% 43% 4% 4% 1% 6%
47% 47% 1% 6%
Baldwin Wallace University September 5–15, 2018 1,048 ± 3.6% 42% 37% 21%
Morning Consult September 2–11, 2018 1,592 ± 2.0% 39% 38% 23%
Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio) August 31 – September 4, 2018 822 ± 3.0% 45% 43% 6% 3%
43% 43% 14%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) June 30 – July 10, 2018 1,485 ± 3.0% 42% 38% 3% 17%
Marist College June 17–22, 2018 778 ± 4.4% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Quinnipiac University June 7–12, 2018 1,082 ± 3.7% 40% 42% 2% 14%
Suffolk University June 6–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 36% 43% 3% 2% 16%
America First Action (R) May 29–31, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 38% 10%
Fallon Research May 21–25, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 40% 34% 1% 3%[D] 22%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) May 6–7, 2018 618 ± 3.9% 39% 44% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) April 25–26, 2018 770 ± 3.5% 38% 47% 14%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 47% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 45% 44% 11%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 49% 28% 23%
Luntz Global June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 55% 31% 14%

Results[edit]

Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mike DeWine 2,231,917 50.39% -13.25%
Democratic Richard Cordray 2,067,847 46.68% +13.65%
Libertarian Travis Irvine 79,985 1.81% N/A
Green Constance Gadell-Newton 49,475 1.12% -2.21%
Independent Renea Turner (write-in) 185 0.00% N/A
Independent Richard Duncan (write-in) 132 0.00% N/A
Independent Rebecca Ayres (write-in) 41 0.00% N/A
Total votes 4,429,582 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Paul Ray 1%, Larry Ealy 0%
  2. ^ Paul Ray 2%, Larry Ealy 1%
  3. ^ Richard Duncan (write-in), Rebecca Ayers (write-in), and Renea Turner (write-in) with 0%
  4. ^ Colin Hill (I) with 3%

References[edit]

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  155. ^ Sherrod Brown. "Congrats to @RichCordray and @BettySutton on becoming the Democratic nominees to be Ohio's next Governor and Lt. Governor! And thank you to all the candidates who raised their voices for working Ohioans—I look forward to working with you to move our state forward. -SB". Twitter.
  156. ^ Rich Cordray. "Thank you for visiting today, @KamalaHarris! I had a great time with you today talking about the issues that matter most to Ohioans and how we can address them. I appreciate your support and your friendship". Twitter.
  157. ^ Rich Cordray. "Just had a great canvass kickoff event with @BettySutton and my friend @CoryBooker. He reminded all of us that we owe it to each other to fight for our communities and to fight for future generations. And the best way to do that right now is to get out and vote!". Twitter.
  158. ^ Tim Ryan. "The Mahoning Valley is fired up and ready to elect @RichCordray and @BettySutton the next Governor and Lt. Governor of the great state of Ohio. Hardworking families have an ally in them. It's time to end the GOP's one party rule in Columbus". Twitter.
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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites