Cook Partisan Voting Index

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Map of 2016-2020 Cook PVI for all voting entities in the upcoming 2024 United States presidential election (states, federal district, congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska)

Map legend:
  State or district has a Cook PVI of D+10 or greater
  State or district has a Cook PVI between D+5 and D+10
  State or district has a Cook PVI between D+2 and D+5
  State or district has a Cook PVI between EVEN and D+2
  State or district has a Cook PVI between EVEN and R+2
  State or district has a Cook PVI between R+2 and R+5
  State or district has a Cook PVI between R+5 and R+10
  State or district has a Cook PVI of R+10 or greater

The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan[1] a United States congressional district or state is. This partisanship[2] is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.[3][4]

History[edit]

The Partisan Voting Index was developed in 1997 by Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report, in conjunction with Clark Bensen and his political statistical analysis firm, Polidata, "as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness".[5][6][7] It is based on the methodology introduced by Rob Richie of the Center for Voting and Democracy (now FairVote for the Center's July 1997 Monopoly Politics report.[8][9]

The Cook Political Report has since released new PVI scores every two years.[10] In 2021, the newsletter ended its relationship with Polidata and instead used Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections to calculate 2020's results.[7] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values.[11]

Calculation and format[edit]

The index looks at how every congressional district voted in the past two presidential elections combined and compares it to the national average.[12] The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number, with the letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) indicating the party that outperformed in the district and the number showing how many percentage points above the national average it received.[10] In 2022, the formula was updated to weigh the most recent presidential election more heavily than the prior election.[11]

By congressional district[edit]

The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[11] With a PVI of R+1, Michigan's 8th congressional district was determined to be the median congressional district, meaning that exactly 217 districts are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than this district.[11] As of 2022, in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[11]

District PVI
Alabama 1 R+16
Alabama 2 R+17
Alabama 3 R+19
Alabama 4 R+33
Alabama 5 R+17
Alabama 6 R+18
Alabama 7 D+14
Alaska at-large R+8
Arizona 1 R+2
Arizona 2 R+6
Arizona 3 D+24
Arizona 4 D+2
Arizona 5 R+11
Arizona 6 R+3
Arizona 7 D+15
Arizona 8 R+10
Arizona 9 R+16
Arkansas 1 R+22
Arkansas 2 R+9
Arkansas 3 R+15
Arkansas 4 R+20
California 1 R+12
California 2 D+23
California 3 R+4
California 4 D+17
California 5 R+9
California 6 D+7
California 7 D+17
California 8 D+26
California 9 D+5
California 10 D+18
California 11 D+37
California 12 D+40
California 13 D+4
California 14 D+22
California 15 D+28
California 16 D+26
California 17 D+23
California 18 D+21
California 19 D+18
California 20 R+16
California 21 D+9
California 22 D+5
California 23 R+8
California 24 D+13
California 25 D+6
California 26 D+8
California 27 D+4
California 28 D+16
California 29 D+26
California 30 D+23
California 31 D+15
California 32 D+20
California 33 D+12
California 34 D+32
California 35 D+13
California 36 D+21
California 37 D+37
California 38 D+14
California 39 D+12
California 40 R+2
California 41 R+3
California 42 D+22
California 43 D+32
California 44 D+24
California 45 D+2
California 46 D+15
California 47 D+3
California 48 R+9
California 49 D+3
California 50 D+14
California 51 D+12
California 52 D+18
Colorado 1 D+29
Colorado 2 D+17
Colorado 3 R+7
Colorado 4 R+13
Colorado 5 R+9
Colorado 6 D+9
Colorado 7 D+4
Colorado 8 EVEN
Connecticut 1 D+12
Connecticut 2 D+3
Connecticut 3 D+7
Connecticut 4 D+13
Connecticut 5 D+3
Delaware at-large D+7
Florida 1 R+19
Florida 2 R+8
Florida 3 R+9
Florida 4 R+6
Florida 5 R+11
Florida 6 R+14
Florida 7 R+5
Florida 8 R+11
Florida 9 D+8
Florida 10 D+14
Florida 11 R+8
Florida 12 R+17
Florida 13 R+6
Florida 14 D+8
Florida 15 R+4
Florida 16 R+7
Florida 17 R+10
Florida 18 R+13
Florida 19 R+13
Florida 20 D+25
Florida 21 R+7
Florida 22 D+7
Florida 23 D+5
Florida 24 D+25
Florida 25 D+9
Florida 26 R+8
Florida 27 EVEN
Florida 28 R+2
Georgia 1 R+9
Georgia 2 D+3
Georgia 3 R+18
Georgia 4 D+27
Georgia 5 D+32
Georgia 6 R+11
Georgia 7 D+10
Georgia 8 R+16
Georgia 9 R+22
Georgia 10 R+15
Georgia 11 R+11
Georgia 12 R+8
Georgia 13 D+28
Georgia 14 R+22
Hawaii 1 D+14
Hawaii 2 D+14
Idaho 1 R+22
Idaho 2 R+14
Illinois 1 D+20
Illinois 2 D+19
Illinois 3 D+20
Illinois 4 D+22
Illinois 5 D+18
Illinois 6 D+3
Illinois 7 D+36
Illinois 8 D+6
Illinois 9 D+19
Illinois 10 D+11
Illinois 11 D+5
Illinois 12 R+24
Illinois 13 D+3
Illinois 14 D+4
Illinois 15 R+22
Illinois 16 R+13
Illinois 17 D+2
Indiana 1 D+3
Indiana 2 R+14
Indiana 3 R+18
Indiana 4 R+18
Indiana 5 R+11
Indiana 6 R+19
Indiana 7 D+19
Indiana 8 R+19
Indiana 9 R+16
Iowa 1 R+3
Iowa 2 R+4
Iowa 3 R+3
Iowa 4 R+16
Kansas 1 R+18
Kansas 2 R+11
Kansas 3 R+1
Kansas 4 R+14
Kentucky 1 R+24
Kentucky 2 R+21
Kentucky 3 D+9
Kentucky 4 R+19
Kentucky 5 R+32
Kentucky 6 R+9
Louisiana 1 R+23
Louisiana 2 D+25
Louisiana 3 R+21
Louisiana 4 R+14
Louisiana 5 R+17
Louisiana 6 R+19
Maine 1 D+9
Maine 2 R+6
Maryland 1 R+11
Maryland 2 D+7
Maryland 3 D+10
Maryland 4 D+40
Maryland 5 D+15
Maryland 6 D+2
Maryland 7 D+30
Maryland 8 D+29
Massachusetts 1 D+9
Massachusetts 2 D+13
Massachusetts 3 D+11
Massachusetts 4 D+12
Massachusetts 5 D+23
Massachusetts 6 D+11
Massachusetts 7 D+35
Massachusetts 8 D+15
Massachusetts 9 D+6
Michigan 1 R+13
Michigan 2 R+16
Michigan 3 D+1
Michigan 4 R+5
Michigan 5 R+15
Michigan 6 D+11
Michigan 7 R+2
Michigan 8 R+1
Michigan 9 R+18
Michigan 10 R+3
Michigan 11 D+7
Michigan 12 D+23
Michigan 13 D+23
Minnesota 1 R+7
Minnesota 2 D+1
Minnesota 3 D+8
Minnesota 4 D+17
Minnesota 5 D+30
Minnesota 6 R+12
Minnesota 7 R+19
Minnesota 8 R+8
Mississippi 1 R+18
Mississippi 2 D+11
Mississippi 3 R+15
Mississippi 4 R+22
Missouri 1 D+27
Missouri 2 R+7
Missouri 3 R+16
Missouri 4 R+23
Missouri 5 D+11
Missouri 6 R+21
Missouri 7 R+24
Missouri 8 R+28
Montana 1 R+6
Montana 2 R+16
Nebraska 1 R+9
Nebraska 2 EVEN
Nebraska 3 R+29
Nevada 1 D+3
Nevada 2 R+8
Nevada 3 D+1
Nevada 4 D+3
New Hampshire 1 EVEN
New Hampshire 2 D+2
New Jersey 1 D+10
New Jersey 2 R+5
New Jersey 3 D+5
New Jersey 4 R+14
New Jersey 5 D+4
New Jersey 6 D+8
New Jersey 7 R+1
New Jersey 8 D+22
New Jersey 9 D+8
New Jersey 10 D+30
New Jersey 11 D+6
New Jersey 12 D+12
New Mexico 1 D+5
New Mexico 2 D+1
New Mexico 3 D+4
New York 1 R+3
New York 2 R+3
New York 3 D+2
New York 4 D+5
New York 5 D+30
New York 6 D+15
New York 7 D+31
New York 8 D+26
New York 9 D+25
New York 10 D+35
New York 11 R+6
New York 12 D+34
New York 13 D+38
New York 14 D+28
New York 15 D+35
New York 16 D+20
New York 17 D+3
New York 18 D+1
New York 19 EVEN
New York 20 D+7
New York 21 R+9
New York 22 D+1
New York 23 R+12
New York 24 R+11
New York 25 D+7
New York 26 D+9
North Carolina 1 D+2
North Carolina 2 D+12
North Carolina 3 R+15
North Carolina 4 D+16
North Carolina 5 R+13
North Carolina 6 D+4
North Carolina 7 R+8
North Carolina 8 R+20
North Carolina 9 R+6
North Carolina 10 R+22
North Carolina 11 R+8
North Carolina 12 D+13
North Carolina 13 R+2
North Carolina 14 D+6
North Dakota at-large R+20
Ohio 1 D+2
Ohio 2 R+25
Ohio 3 D+20
Ohio 4 R+20
Ohio 5 R+15
Ohio 6 R+16
Ohio 7 R+7
Ohio 8 R+14
Ohio 9 R+3
Ohio 10 R+4
Ohio 11 D+28
Ohio 12 R+18
Ohio 13 R+1
Ohio 14 R+9
Ohio 15 R+6
Oklahoma 1 R+14
Oklahoma 2 R+29
Oklahoma 3 R+24
Oklahoma 4 R+19
Oklahoma 5 R+12
Oregon 1 D+18
Oregon 2 R+15
Oregon 3 D+22
Oregon 4 D+4
Oregon 5 D+2
Oregon 6 D+4
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN
Pennsylvania 2 D+20
Pennsylvania 3 D+39
Pennsylvania 4 D+7
Pennsylvania 5 D+14
Pennsylvania 6 D+5
Pennsylvania 7 R+2
Pennsylvania 8 R+4
Pennsylvania 9 R+21
Pennsylvania 10 R+5
Pennsylvania 11 R+13
Pennsylvania 12 D+8
Pennsylvania 13 R+25
Pennsylvania 14 R+18
Pennsylvania 15 R+21
Pennsylvania 16 R+13
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN
Rhode Island 1 D+12
Rhode Island 2 D+4
South Carolina 1 R+7
South Carolina 2 R+8
South Carolina 3 R+21
South Carolina 4 R+12
South Carolina 5 R+12
South Carolina 6 D+14
South Carolina 7 R+11
South Dakota at-large R+16
Tennessee 1 R+30
Tennessee 2 R+18
Tennessee 3 R+19
Tennessee 4 R+22
Tennessee 5 R+9
Tennessee 6 R+17
Tennessee 7 R+10
Tennessee 8 R+21
Tennessee 9 D+22
Texas 1 R+26
Texas 2 R+15
Texas 3 R+11
Texas 4 R+16
Texas 5 R+14
Texas 6 R+15
Texas 7 D+13
Texas 8 R+16
Texas 9 D+26
Texas 10 R+13
Texas 11 R+23
Texas 12 R+12
Texas 13 R+26
Texas 14 R+17
Texas 15 R+1
Texas 16 D+17
Texas 17 R+14
Texas 18 D+23
Texas 19 R+26
Texas 20 D+15
Texas 21 R+13
Texas 22 R+11
Texas 23 R+5
Texas 24 R+10
Texas 25 R+19
Texas 26 R+13
Texas 27 R+13
Texas 28 D+3
Texas 29 D+18
Texas 30 D+27
Texas 31 R+14
Texas 32 D+14
Texas 33 D+24
Texas 34 D+9
Texas 35 D+21
Texas 36 R+18
Texas 37 D+24
Texas 38 R+12
Utah 1 R+12
Utah 2 R+11
Utah 3 R+13
Utah 4 R+16
Vermont at-large D+16
Virginia 1 R+6
Virginia 2 R+2
Virginia 3 D+17
Virginia 4 D+16
Virginia 5 R+7
Virginia 6 R+14
Virginia 7 D+1
Virginia 8 D+26
Virginia 9 R+23
Virginia 10 D+6
Virginia 11 D+18
Washington 1 D+13
Washington 2 D+9
Washington 3 R+5
Washington 4 R+11
Washington 5 R+8
Washington 6 D+6
Washington 7 D+36
Washington 8 D+1
Washington 9 D+21
Washington 10 D+7
West Virginia 1 R+23
West Virginia 2 R+22
Wisconsin 1 R+3
Wisconsin 2 D+19
Wisconsin 3 R+4
Wisconsin 4 D+25
Wisconsin 5 R+14
Wisconsin 6 R+10
Wisconsin 7 R+12
Wisconsin 8 R+10
Wyoming at-large R+25

By state[edit]

The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.[13] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results.

State PVI Party of
governor
Party
in Senate
House
balance
Alabama R+15 Republican Republican 6R, 1D
Alaska R+8 Republican Republican 1D
Arizona R+2 Democratic Democratic* 6R, 3D
Arkansas R+16 Republican Republican 4R
California D+13 Democratic Democratic 40D, 12R
Colorado D+4 Democratic Democratic 5D, 3R
Connecticut D+7 Democratic Democratic 5D
Delaware D+7 Democratic Democratic 1D
Florida R+3 Republican Republican 20R, 8D
Georgia R+3 Republican Democratic 9R, 5D
Hawaii D+14 Democratic Democratic 2D
Idaho R+18 Republican Republican 2R
Illinois D+7 Democratic Democratic 14D, 3R
Indiana R+11 Republican Republican 7R, 2D
Iowa R+6 Republican Republican 4R
Kansas R+10 Democratic Republican 3R, 1D
Kentucky R+16 Democratic Republican 5R, 1D
Louisiana R+12 Republican Republican 5R, 1D
Maine D+2 Democratic Both* 2D
Maryland D+14 Democratic Democratic 7D, 1R
Massachusetts D+15 Democratic Democratic 9D
Michigan R+1 Democratic Democratic 7D, 6R
Minnesota D+1 Democratic Democratic 4D, 4R
Mississippi R+11 Republican Republican 3R, 1D
Missouri R+10 Republican Republican 6R, 2D
Montana R+11 Republican Both 2R
Nebraska R+13 Republican Republican 3R
Nevada R+1 Republican Democratic 3D, 1R
New Hampshire D+1 Republican Democratic 2D
New Jersey D+6 Democratic Democratic 9D, 3R
New Mexico D+3 Democratic Democratic 3D
New York D+10 Democratic Democratic 15D, 11R
North Carolina R+3 Democratic Republican 7D, 7R
North Dakota R+20 Republican Republican 1R
Ohio R+6 Republican Both 10R, 5D
Oklahoma R+20 Republican Republican 5R
Oregon D+6 Democratic Democratic 4D, 2R
Pennsylvania R+2 Democratic Democratic 9D, 8R
Rhode Island D+8 Democratic Democratic 2D
South Carolina R+8 Republican Republican 6R, 1D
South Dakota R+16 Republican Republican 1R
Tennessee R+14 Republican Republican 8R, 1D
Texas R+5 Republican Republican 25R, 13D
Utah R+13 Republican Republican 4R
Vermont D+16 Republican Democratic* 1D
Virginia D+3 Republican Democratic 6D, 5R
Washington D+8 Democratic Democratic 8D, 2R
West Virginia R+22 Republican Both 2R
Wisconsin R+2 Democratic Both 6R, 2D
Wyoming R+25 Republican Republican 1R
* Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Paul, M., Zhang, R., Liu, B. et al. State-level political partisanship strongly correlates with health outcomes for US children. Eur J Pediatr 181, 273–280 (2022).
  2. ^ Cillizza, Chris (April 10, 2017). "A map that shows we really do live in two different Americas". CNN. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  3. ^ Cillizza, Chris (March 14, 2018). "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter". CNN. Retrieved November 29, 2020. Which brings me to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index or PVI. The goal of the PVI is to compare every congressional district to every other congressional district based on how it has performed in each of the last two presidential elections.
  4. ^ Benen, Steve (February 7, 2017). "There are 119 Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today". MSNBC. Retrieved November 29, 2020. To get a sense of a congressional district's political leanings, there's a helpful metric called the Partisan Voter Index, or PVI, created 20 years ago by the Cook Political Report.
  5. ^ Kurtz, Josh (June 8, 2005). "Future House Opportunities Abound (Maybe)". Roll Call. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  6. ^ Daum, Courtenay; Duffy, Robert; Straayer, John, eds. (2011). State of Change. Boulder: University of Colorado Press. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  7. ^ a b "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  8. ^ Cook, Charlie (August 11, 1997). "New Study Identifies 75 Seats That Should Be In Play for '98 Election". Roll Call. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  9. ^ "Monopoly Politics". Center for Voting and Democracy. July 1997. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  10. ^ a b Kane, Paul (April 8, 2023). "New report outlines the deep political polarization's slow and steady march". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  11. ^ a b c d e Wasserman, David (July 13, 2022). "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved July 13, 2022.
  12. ^ Seib, Gerald (December 9, 1998). "GOP Moderates and the Agony Of Their Impeachment Choice". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  13. ^ "2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. July 12, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.

External links[edit]