Copenhagen Diagnosis
The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a report written by twenty-six climate scientists from eight countries.[1][2] It was published in 2009 and was a summary of the peer-reviewed literature to date.[3][4]
The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a follow-up of the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group 1 Report.[5][6] The studies summarized, which date back to the cutoff point of the Working Group 1 Report, are those that authors viewed most relevant to the discussions at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference.[5] The Copenhagen Diagnosis served as the midpoint between IPCC –AR4 and IPCC-AR5.[6]
In total, the Copenhagen Diagnosis contains eight main sections, which are:
- Surging Greenhouse gas emissions
- Since 1990, the combined global emission of carbon dioxide from various origins, such as cement production, deforestation, and fossil fuel burning, has increased 27%.
- Human-induced warming
- Studies conducted by Lee and Rind show that only 10% of global warming over the past century was due to the Sun.
- Acceleration of melting ice caps
- Glaciers and melting ice caps can contribute to about 8/10ths of a meter to global sea level rise.
- Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline
- According to simulations run by NCAR Climate System Model version 3, the Arctic summer is expected to be ice-free by 2040.
- Underestimation of changing sea levels
- In contrast to previous IPCC, the rate of sea level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) has increased around 80% faster than previously predicted.
- Damage due to inaction
- A region of permafrost, called the Yedoma, stores about 500 Gt of CO2 and, once released due to rising global temperatures, will increase global temperatures even more.
- Turning point must come soon
- The largest climate science conference, held in 2009, has stated, “Temperature rises above 2 °C will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.”
- The Future
- By 2100, global mean air-temperature is projected to warm by 2°C – 7°C above pre-industrial levels.
References
- ^ "How the Copenhagen Diagnosis came to be written". The Copenhagen Diagnosis.
- ^ Lee, Mike (2009-11-24). "Climate scientists offer grim 'Diagnosis'". San Diego Union-Tribune.
- ^ Sale, Peter (2011). Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist's View of the Crisis We Face. University of California Press. p. 95. ISBN 978-0-520-26756-5.
- ^ "'Copenhagen Diagnosis' offers a grim update to the IPCC's climate science". The Guardian. London. 25 November 2009. Retrieved 6 September 2011.
- ^ a b "Copenhagen". Real Climate: Climate science from climate scientists. RealClimate.org. Retrieved 12 December 2011.
- ^ a b "'Copenhagen Diagnosis' offers a grim update to the IPCC's climate science". Guardian Environment Network. London: The Guardian. 25 November 2009.
External links
- Official website Copenhagen Diagnosis
- "Copenhagen Diagnosis Report" (PDF). (23.3 MB)
- Copenhagen Diagnosis Report HTML format