Sea level rise

This is a good article. Click here for more information.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Current sea level rise)

The global average sea level has risen about 250 millimetres (9.8 in) since 1880.[1]

Between 1901 and 2018, average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), an average of 1–2 mm (0.039–0.079 in) per year.[2] This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[3] Climate change due to human activities is the main cause.[4]: 5, 8  Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise. Melting temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, while polar glaciers in Greenland accounted for 15% and those in Antarctica for 8%.[5]: 1576  Sea level rise lags changes in the Earth's temperature, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.[6] What happens after that depends on human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise may slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it may accelerate. It could rise by 1 m (3+12 ft) or even 2 m (6+12 ft) by then.[4][7] In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[4]: 21 

Rising seas affect every coastal and island population on Earth.[8][9] This can be through flooding, higher storm surges, king tides, and tsunamis. There are many knock-on effects. They lead to loss of coastal ecosystems like mangroves. Crop production falls because of salinization of irrigation water. Damage to ports disrupts sea trade.[10][11][12] The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century.[13] Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be vulnerable to large-scale migration and economic disruption.

Local factors like tidal range or land subsidence will greatly affect the severity of impacts. The varying resilience and adaptive capacity of individual ecosystems, sectors, and countries are also factors.[14] For instance, sea level rise in the United States (particularly along the US East Coast) is already higher than the global average. It is likely to be 2 to 3 times greater than the global average by the end of the century.[15][16] Yet, of the 20 countries with the greatest exposure to sea level rise, 12 are in Asia. Eight of them collectively account for 70% of the global population exposed to sea level rise and land subsidence. These are Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.[17] The greatest impact on human populations in the near term will occur in the low-lying Caribbean and Pacific islands. Sea level rise will make many of them uninhabitable later this century.[18]

Societies can adapt to sea level rise in three ways. Managed retreat, accommodating coastal change, or protecting against sea level rise through hard-construction practices like seawalls[19] are hard approaches. There are also soft approaches such as dune rehabilitation and beach nourishment. Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand. At other times choices must be made among different strategies.[20] A managed retreat strategy is difficult if an area's population is increasing rapidly. This is a particularly acute problem for Africa. There, the population of low-lying coastal areas is likely to increase by around 100 million people within the next 40 years.[21] Poorer nations may also struggle to implement the same approaches to adapt to sea level rise as richer states. Sea level rise at some locations may be compounded by other environmental issues. One example is subsidence in sinking cities.[22] Coastal ecosystems typically adapt to rising sea levels by moving inland. Natural or artificial barriers may make that impossible.[23]

Observations[edit]

Sea surface height change from 1992 to 2019 – NASA
The visualization is based on data collected from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3 satellites. Blue regions are where sea level has gone down, and orange/red regions are where sea level has risen.[24]

Between 1901 and 2018, the global mean sea level rose by about 20 cm (7.9 in).[4] More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements found a rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017 (average of 2.9 mm (0.11 in)/yr).[5] This accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for 2013–2022.[3]

Regional variations[edit]

Sea level rise is not uniform around the globe. Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of subsidence (land sinking or settling) or post-glacial rebound (land rising as melting ice reduces weight). Therefore, local relative sea level rise may be higher or lower than the global average. Changing ice masses also affect the distribution of sea water around the globe through gravity.[25][26]

When a glacier or ice sheet melts, it loses mass. This reduces its gravitational pull. In some places near current and former glaciers and ice sheets, this has caused water levels to drop. At the same time water levels will increase more than average further away from the ice sheet. Thus ice loss in Greenland affects regional sea level differently than the equivalent loss in Antarctica.[27] On the other hand, the Atlantic is warming at a faster pace than the Pacific. This has consequences for Europe and the U.S. East Coast. The East Coast sea level is rising at 3–4 times the global average.[28] Scientists have linked extreme regional sea level rise on the US Northeast Coast to the downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).[29]

Many ports, urban conglomerations, and agricultural regions stand on river deltas. Here land subsidence contributes to much higher relative sea level rise. Unsustainable extraction of groundwater and oil and gas is one cause. Levees and other flood management practices are another. They prevent sediments from accumulating. These would otherwise compensate for the natural settling of deltaic soils.[30]: 638 [31]: 88  Estimates for total human-caused subsidence in the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt delta (Netherlands) are 3–4 m (10–13 ft), over 3 m (10 ft) in urban areas of the Mississippi River Delta (New Orleans), and over 9 m (30 ft) in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta.[31]: 81–90  On the other hand, relative sea level around the Hudson Bay in Canada and the northern Baltic is falling due to post-glacial isostatic rebound.[32]

Projections[edit]

A comparison of SLR in six parts of the US. The Gulf Coast and East Coast see the most SLR, whereas the West Coast the least
NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise through 2050 for several US coastlines.[16]

There are two complementary ways to model sea level rise (SLR) and project the future. The first uses process-based modeling. This combines all relevant and well-understood physical processes in a global physical model. This approach calculates the contributions of ice sheets with an ice-sheet model and computes rising sea temperature and expansion with a general circulation model. The processes are not fully understood. But this approach can predict non-linearities and long delays in the response, which studies of the recent past will miss.

The other approach employs semi-empirical techniques. These use historical geological data to determine likely sea level responses to a warming world, and some basic physical modeling.[33] These semi-empirical sea level models rely on statistical techniques. They use relationships between observed past contributions to global mean sea level and temperature.[34] Scientists developed this type of modeling because most physical models in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) literature assessments had underestimated the amount of sea level rise compared to 20th century observations.[26]

Projections for the 21st century[edit]

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.[35] RCPs are different scenarios for future concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the largest and most influential scientific organization on climate change, and since 1990, it provides several plausible scenarios of 21st century sea level rise in each of its major reports. The differences between scenarios are mainly due to uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions. These depend on future economic developments, and also future political action which is hard to predict. Each scenario provides an estimate for sea level rise as a range with a lower and upper limit to reflect the unknowns. The scenarios in the 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) were called Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs and the scenarios in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) are known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, or SSPs. A large difference between the two was the addition of SSP1-1.9 to AR6, which represents meeting the best Paris climate agreement goal of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). In that case, the likely range of sea level rise by 2100 is 28–55 cm (11–21+12 in).[7]

The lowest scenario in AR5, RCP2.6, would see greenhouse gas emissions low enough to meet the goal of limiting warming by 2100 to 2 °C (36 °F). It shows sea level rise in 2100 of about 44 cm (17 in) with a range of 28–61 cm (11–24 in). The "moderate" scenario, where CO2 emissions take a decade or two to peak and its atmospheric concentration does not plateau until 2070s is called RCP 4.5. Its likely range of sea level rise is 36–71 cm (14–28 in). The highest scenario in RCP8.5 pathway sea level would rise between 52 and 98 cm (20+12 and 38+12 in).[26][36] AR6 had equivalents for both scenarios, but it estimated larger sea level rise under both. In AR6, the SSP1-2.6 pathway results in a range of 32–62 cm (12+1224+12 in) by 2100. The "moderate" SSP2-4.5 results in a 44–76 cm (17+12–30 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 led to 65–101 cm (25+12–40 in).[7]

A set of older (2007-2012) projections of sea level rise. There was a wide range of estimates.
Sea level rise projections for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 from 2007 to 2012

Further, AR5 was criticized by multiple researchers for excluding detailed estimates the impact of "low-confidence" processes like marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instability,[37][38][39] which can substantially accelerate ice loss to potentially add "tens of centimeters" to sea level rise within this century.[26] AR6 includes a version of SSP5-8.5 where these processes take place, and in that case, sea level rise of over 2 m (6+12 ft) by 2100 could not be ruled out.[7] The general increase of projections in AR6 was caused by the observed ice-sheet erosion in Greenland and Antarctica matching the upper-end range of the AR5 projections by 2020,[40][41] and the finding that AR5 projections were likely too slow next to an extrapolation of observed sea level rise trends, while the subsequent reports had improved in this regard.[42]

Notably, some scientists believe that ice sheet processes may accelerate sea level rise even at temperatures below the highest possible scenario, though not as much. For instance, a 2017 study from the University of Melbourne researchers suggested that these processes increase RCP2.6 sea level rise by about one quarter, RCP4.5 sea level rise by one half and practically double RCP8.5 sea level rise.[43][44] A 2016 study led by Jim Hansen hypothesized that vulnerable ice sheet section collapse can lead to near-term exponential sea level rise acceleration, with a doubling time of 10, 20, or 40 years. Such acceleration would lead to multi-meter sea level rise in 50, 100, or 200 years, respectively,[39] but it remains a minority view amongst the scientific community.[45]

For comparison, a major scientific survey of 106 experts in 2020 found that even when accounting for instability processes they had estimated a median sea level rise of 45 cm (17+12 in) by 2100 for RCP2.6, with a 5%-95% range of 21–82 cm (8+1232+12 in). For RCP8.5, the experts estimated a median of 93 cm (36+12 in) by 2100 and a 5%-95% range of 45–165 cm (17+12–65 in).[46] Similarly, NOAA in 2022 had suggested that there is a 50% probability of 0.5 m (19+12 in) sea level rise by 2100 under 2 °C (3.6 °F), which increases to >80% to >99% under 3–5 °C (5.4–9.0 °F).[16] Year 2019 elicitation of 22 ice sheet experts suggested a median SLR of 30 cm (12 in) by 2050 and 70 cm (27+12 in) by 2100 in the low emission scenario and the median of 34 cm (13+12 in) by 2050 and 110 cm (43+12 in) by 2100 in a high emission scenario. They also estimated a small chance of sea levels exceeding 1 meter by 2100 even in the low emission scenario and of going beyond 2 metres in the high emission scenario, with the latter causing the displacement of 187 million people.[47]

Post-2100 sea level rise[edit]

If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), sea level rise by 2100 will be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet).[48] However, in a worst-case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year 2300.[48]
A map showing major SLR impact in south-east Asia, Northern Europe and the East Coast of the US
Map of the Earth with a long-term 6-metre (20 ft) sea level rise represented in red (uniform distribution, actual sea level rise will vary regionally and local adaptation measures will also have an effect on local sea levels).

Even if the temperature stabilizes, significant sea-level rise (SLR) will continue for centuries.[49] This is what models consistent with paleo records of sea level rise.[26]: 1189  After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal expansion alone may have reached only half of its eventual level. Models suggest this may lie within ranges of 0.5–2 m (1+126+12 ft).[50] Additionally, tipping points of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are likely to play a larger role over such timescales.[51] Ice loss from Antarctica is likely to dominate very long-term SLR, especially if the warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F). Continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia. The available fossil fuel on Earth is enough to melt the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 m (190 ft) of sea level rise.[52]

In the next 2,000 years, sea level is predicted to rise by 2–3 m (6+12–10 ft) if the temperature increase peaks at its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), It would rise by 2–6 m (6+1219+12 ft) if it peaks at 2 °C (3.6 °F) and by 19–22 m (62+12–72 ft) if it peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[4]: SPM-28  If the temperature rise stops at 2 °C (3.6 °F) or at 5 °C (9.0 °F), the sea level would still continue to rise for about 10,000 years. In the first case it will reach 8–13 m (26–42+12 ft) above pre-industrial level, and in the second 28–37 m (92–121+12 ft).[53]

With better models and observational records, several studies have attempted to project SLR for the centuries immediately after 2100. This remains largely speculative. An April 2019 expert elicitation asked 22 experts about total sea level rise projections for the years 2200 and 2300 under its high, 5 °C warming scenario. It ended up with 90% confidence intervals of −10 cm (4 in) to 740 cm (24+12 ft) and −9 cm (3+12 in) to 970 cm (32 ft), respectively. Negative values represent the extremely low probability of very large increases in the ice sheet surface mass balance due to climate change-induced increase in precipitation.[47] An elicitation of 106 experts led by Stefan Rahmstorf also included 2300 for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The former had the median of 118 cm (46+12 in), and a 5%-95% range of 24–311 cm (9+12122+12 in). The latter had the median of 329 cm (129+12 in), and a 5%-95% range of 88–783 cm (34+12308+12 in).[46]

By 2021, AR6 was also able to provide estimates for sea level rise in 2150 alongside the 2100 estimates for the first time. This showed that keeping warming at 1.5 °C under the SSP1-1.9 scenario would result in sea level rise in the 17-83% range of 37–86 cm (14+12–34 in). In the SSP1-2.6 pathway the range would be 46–99 cm (18–39 in), for SSP2-4.5 a 66–133 cm (26–52+12 in) range by 2100 and for SSP5-8.5 a rise of 98–188 cm (38+12–74 in). It stated that a "low-confidence" projection of over 2 m (6+12 ft) by 2100, would accelerate further to potentially 5 m (16+12 ft) by 2150. AR6 also provided lower-confidence estimates for year 2300 sea level rise under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. The former had a range between 0.5 m (1+12 ft) and 3.2 m (10+12 ft), while the latter ranged from just under 2 m (6+12 ft) to just under 7 m (23 ft). The low-confidence projections of SSP5-8.5 project sea level rise exceeding 15 m (49 ft) by then.[7]

A 2018 paper estimated that sea level rise in 2300 would increase by a median of 20 cm (8 in) for every five years CO2 emissions increase before peaking. It shows a 5% likelihood of a 1 m (3+12 ft) increase due to the same. The same estimate found that if the temperature stabilized below 2 °C (3.6 °F), 2300 sea level rise would still exceed 1.5 m (5 ft). Early net zero and slowly falling temperatures could limit it to 70–120 cm (27+12–47 in).[54]

Measurements[edit]

Variations in the amount of water in the oceans, changes in its volume, or varying land elevation compared to the sea surface can drive sea level changes. Over a consistent time period, assessments can attribute contributions to sea level rise and provide early indications of change in trajectory. This helps to inform adaptation plans.[55] The different techniques used to measure changes in sea level do not measure exactly the same level. Tide gauges can only measure relative sea level. Satellites can also measure absolute sea level changes.[56] To get precise measurements for sea level, researchers studying the ice and oceans factor in ongoing deformations of the solid Earth. They look in particular at landmasses still rising from past ice masses retreating, and the Earth's gravity and rotation.[5]

Satellites[edit]

Jason-1 continued the sea surface measurements started by TOPEX/Poseidon. It was followed by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission on Jason-2, and by Jason-3.

Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, an overlapping series of altimetric satellites has been continuously recording the sea level and its changes.[57] These satellites can measure the hills and valleys in the sea caused by currents and detect trends in their height. To measure the distance to the sea surface, the satellites send a microwave pulse towards Earth and record the time it takes to return after reflecting off the ocean's surface. Microwave radiometers correct the additional delay caused by water vapor in the atmosphere. Combining these data with the location of the spacecraft determines the sea-surface height to within a few centimetres.[58] These satellite measurements have estimated rates of sea level rise for 1993–2017 at 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (18 ± 164 in) per year.[59]

Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level. An example is the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific. This sharp rise has been linked to increasing trade winds. These occur when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) change from one state to the other.[60] The PDO is a basin-wide climate pattern consisting of two phases, each commonly lasting 10 to 30 years. The ENSO has a shorter period of 2 to 7 years.[61]

Tide gauges[edit]

Between 1993 and 2018, the mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors).[62]

The global network of tide gauges is the other important source of sea-level observations. Compared to the satellite record, this record has major spatial gaps but covers a much longer period.[63] Coverage of tide gauges started mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Data for the Southern Hemisphere remained scarce up to the 1970s.[63] The longest running sea-level measurements, NAP or Amsterdam Ordnance Datum were established in 1675, in Amsterdam.[64] Record collection is also extensive in Australia. They including measurements by an amateur meteorologist beginning in 1837. They also include measurements taken from a sea-level benchmark struck on a small cliff on the Isle of the Dead near the Port Arthur convict settlement in 1841.[65]

Together with satellite data for the period after 1992, this network established that global mean sea level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr. (For the 20th century the average is 1.7 mm/yr.)[66] By 2018, data collected by Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) had shown that the global mean sea level was rising by 3.2 mm (18 in) per year. This was double the average 20th century rate.[67][68] The 2023 World Meteorological Organization report found further acceleration to 4.62 mm/yr over the 2013–2022 period.[3] These observations help to check and verify predictions from climate change simulations.

Regional differences are also visible in the tide gauge data. Some are caused by local sea level differences. Others are due to vertical land movements. In Europe, only some land areas are rising while the others are sinking. Since 1970, most tidal stations have measured higher seas. However sea levels along the northern Baltic Sea have dropped due to post-glacial rebound.[69]

Past sea level rise[edit]

Changes in sea levels since the end of the last glacial episode

An understanding of past sea level is an important guide to where current changes in sea level will end up. In the recent geological past, thermal expansion from increased temperatures and changes in land ice are the dominant reasons of sea level rise. The last time that the Earth was 2 °C (3.6 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures was 120,000 years ago. This was when warming due to Milankovitch cycles (changes in the amount of sunlight due to slow changes in the Earth's orbit) caused the Eemian interglacial. Sea levels during that warmer interglacial were at least 5 m (16 ft) higher than now.[70] The Eemian warming was sustained over a period of thousands of years. The size of the rise in sea level implies a large contribution from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.[26]: 1139  Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide of around 400 parts per million (similar to 2000s) had increased temperature by over 2–3 °C (3.6–5.4 °F) around three million years ago. This temperature increase eventually melted one third of Antarctica's ice sheet, causing sea levels to rise 20 meters above the preindustrial levels.[71]

Since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft). Rates vary from less than 1 mm/year during the pre-industrial era to 40+ mm/year when major ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia melted. Meltwater pulses are periods of fast sea level rise caused by the rapid disintegration of these ice sheets. The rate of sea level rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before today. Sea level was almost constant for the last 2,500 years. The recent trend of rising sea level started at the end of the 19th or beginning of the 20th century.[72]

Causes[edit]

A graph showing ice loss sea ice, ice shelves and land ice. Land ice loss contributetes to SLR
Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017: ice sheets and glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s−from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year.[73]

The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are the expansion of oceans due to heating, water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. Glacier retreat and ocean expansion have dominated sea level rise since the start of the 20th century.[33] Some of the losses from glaciers are offset when precipitation falls as snow, accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge balance each other, sea level remains the same. Because of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface, effects of climate change on the water cycle can even increase ice build-up. However, this effect is not enough to fully offset ice losses, and sea level rise continues to accelerate.[21][74][75][76]

The contributions of the two large ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, are likely to increase in the 21st century.[33] They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of 7.4 m (24 ft 3 in) for Greenland and 58.3 m (191 ft 3 in) for Antarctica.[5] Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about 70 m (229 ft 8 in) of sea level rise,[77] although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to 10 °C (18 °F) of global warming.[78][79]

Ocean heating[edit]

There has been an increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb most of the excess heat created by human-induced global warming.[80]

The oceans store more than 90% of the extra heat added to the climate system by Earth's energy imbalance and act as a buffer against its effects.[81] This means that the same amount of heat that would increase the average world ocean temperature by 0.01 °C (0.018 °F) would increase atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C (18 °F).[82] So a small change in the mean temperature of the ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system. Winds and currents move heat into deeper parts of the ocean. Some of it reaches depths of more than 2,000 m (6,600 ft).[83]

When the ocean gains heat, the water expands and sea level rises. Warmer water and water under great pressure (due to depth) expand more than cooler water and water under less pressure.[26]: 1161  Consequently, cold Arctic Ocean water will expand less than warm tropical water. Different climate models present slightly different patterns of ocean heating. So their projections do not agree fully on how much ocean heating contributes to sea level rise.[84]

Antarctic ice loss[edit]

Processes around an Antarctic ice shelf
The Ross Ice Shelf is Antarctica's largest. It is about the size of France and up to several hundred metres thick.

The large volume of ice on the Antarctic continent stores around 60% of the world's fresh water. Excluding groundwater this is 90%.[85] Antarctica is experiencing ice loss from coastal glaciers in the West Antarctica and some glaciers of East Antarctica. However it is gaining mass from the increased snow build-up inland, particularly in the East. This leads to contradicting trends.[76][86] There are different satellite methods for measuring ice mass and change. Combining them helps to reconcile the differences.[87] However, there can still be variations between the studies. In 2018, a systematic review estimated average annual ice loss of 43 billion tons (Gt) across the entire continent between 1992 and 2002. This tripled to an annual average of 220 Gt from 2012 to 2017.[74][88] However, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems (Envisat, European Remote-Sensing Satellite, GRACE and GRACE-FO and ICESat) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012 to 2016. This was due to greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier.[76]

In the future, it is known that West Antarctica at least will continue to lose mass, and the likely future losses of sea ice and ice shelves, which block warmer currents from direct contact with the ice sheet, can accelerate declines even in the East.[89][90] Altogether, Antarctica is the source of the largest uncertainty for future sea level projections.[91] By 2019, several studies attempted to estimate 2300 sea level rise caused by ice loss in Antarctica alone. They suggest a median rise of 16 cm (6+12 in) and maximum rise of 37 cm (14+12 in) under the low-emission scenario. The highest emission scenario results in a median rise of 1.46 m (5 ft) metres, with a minimum of 60 cm (2 ft) and a maximum of 2.89 m (9+12 ft)).[7]

East Antarctica[edit]

The world's largest potential source of sea level rise is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). It is 2.2 km thick on average and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (174 ft 10 in)[92] Its great thickness and high elevation make it more stable than the other ice sheets.[93] As of the early 2020s, most studies show that it is still gaining mass.[94][74][76][86] Some analyses have suggested it began to lose mass in the 2000s.[95][75][90] However they over-extrapolated some observed losses on to the poorly observed areas. A more complete observational record shows continued mass gain.[76]

Aerial view of ice flows at Denman Glacier, one of the less stable glaciers in the East Antarctica

In spite of the net mass gain, some East Antarctica glaciers have lost ice in recent decades due to ocean warming and declining structural support from the local sea ice,[89] such as Denman Glacier,[96][97] and Totten Glacier.[98][99] Totten Glacier is particularly important because it stabilizes the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Subglacial basins like Aurora and Wilkes Basin are major ice reservoirs together holding as much ice as all of West Antarctica.[100] They are more vulnerable than the rest of East Antarctica.[38] Their collective tipping point probably lies at around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming. It may be as high as 6 °C (11 °F) or as low as 2 °C (3.6 °F). Once this tipping point is crossed, the collapse of these subglacial basins could take place over as little as 500 or as much as 10,000 years. The median timeline is 2000 years.[78][79] Depending on how many subglacial basins are vulnerable, this causes sea level rise of between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in).[101]

On the other hand, the whole EAIS would not definitely collapse until global warming reaches 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). It would take at least 10,000 years to disappear.[78][79] Some scientists have estimated that warming would have to reach at least 6 °C (11 °F) to melt two thirds of its volume.[102]

West Antarctica[edit]

Thwaites Glacier, with its vulnerable bedrock topography visible.

East Antarctica contains the largest potential source of sea level rise. However the West Antarctica ice sheet (WAIS) is substantially more vulnerable. Temperatures on West Antarctica have increased significantly, unlike East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The trend is between 0.08 °C (0.14 °F) and 0.96 °C (1.73 °F) per decade between 1976 and 2012.[103] Satellite observations recorded a substantial increase in WAIS melting from 1992 to 2017. This resulted in 7.6 ± 3.9 mm (1964 ± 532 in) of Antarctica sea level rise. Outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment played a disproportionate role.[104]

Scientists estimated in 2021 that the median increase in sea level rise from Antarctica by 2100 is ~11 cm (5 in). There is no difference between scenarios, because the increased warming would intensify the water cycle and increase snowfall accumulation over the EAIS at about the same rate as it would increase ice loss from WAIS.[7] However, most of the bedrock underlying the WAIS lies well below sea level, and it has to be buttressed by the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. If these glaciers were to collapse, the entire ice sheet would as well.[38] Their disappearance would take at least several centuries, but is considered almost inevitable, as their bedrock topography deepens inland and becomes more vulnerable to meltwater.[105][106][107]

The contribution of these glaciers to global sea levels has already accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century. The Thwaites Glacier now accounts for 4% of global sea level rise.[105][108][109] It could start to lose even more ice if the Thwaites Ice Shelf fails, potentially in mid-2020s.[110] This is due to marine ice sheet instability hypothesis, where warm water enters between the seafloor and the base of the ice sheet once it is no longer heavy enough to displace the flow, causing accelerated melting and collapse.[111] Marine ice cliff instability, when ice cliffs with heights greater than 100 m (330 ft) collapse under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves, may also occur, though it has never been observed, and more detailed modelling has ruled it out.[112]

A graphical representation of how warm waters, and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and Marine Ice Cliff Instability processes are affecting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Other hard-to-model processes include hydrofracturing, where meltwater collects atop the ice sheet, pools into fractures and forces them open.[37] and changes in the ocean circulation at a smaller scale.[113][114][115] A combination of these processes could cause the WAIS to contribute up to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and up to 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one.[7]

The melting of all the ice in West Antarctica would increase the total sea level rise to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in).[116] However, mountain ice caps not in contact with water are less vulnerable than the majority of the ice sheet, which is located below the sea level.[117] Its collapse would cause ~3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise.[118] This collapse is now considered practically inevitable, as it appears to have already occurred during the Eemian period 125,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to the early 21st century.[119][120][121][122][123][115][124] This disappearance would take an estimated 2000 years. The absolute minimum for the loss of West Antarctica ice is 500 years, and the potential maximum is 13,000 years.[78][79]

The only way to stop ice loss from West Antarctica once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[102] Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.[125][126]

Isostatic rebound[edit]

2021 research indicates that isostatic rebound after the loss of the main portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet would ultimately add another 1.02 m (3 ft 4 in) to global sea levels. This effect would start to increase sea levels before 2100. However it would take 1000 years for it to cause 83 cm (2 ft 9 in) of sea level rise. At this point, West Antarctica itself would be 610 m (2,001 ft 4 in) higher than now. Estimates of isostatic rebound after the loss of East Antarctica's subglacial basins suggest increases of between 8 cm (3.1 in) and 57 cm (1 ft 10 in)[101]

Greenland ice sheet loss[edit]

Greenland 2007 melt, measured as the difference between the number of days on which melting occurred in 2007 compared to the average annual melting days from 1988 to 2006[127]

Most ice on Greenland is in the Greenland ice sheet which is 3 km (10,000 ft) at its thickest. The rest of Greenland ice forms isolated glaciers and ice caps. The average annual ice loss in Greenland more than doubled in the early 21st century compared to the 20th century.[128] Its contribution to sea level rise correspondingly increased from 0.07 mm per year between 1992 and 1997 to 0.68 mm per year between 2012 and 2017. Total ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2018 amounted to 3,902 gigatons (Gt) of ice. This is equivalent to a SLR contribution of 10.8 mm.[129] The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was equivalent to 37% of sea level rise from land ice sources (excluding thermal expansion).[130] This observed rate of ice sheet melting is at the higher end of predictions from past IPCC assessment reports.[131][41]

In 2021, AR6 estimated that by 2100, the melting of Greenland ice sheet would most likely add around 6 cm (2+12 in) to sea levels under the low-emission scenario, and 13 cm (5 in) under the high-emission scenario. The first scenario, SSP1-2.6, largely fulfils the Paris Agreement goals, while the other, SSP5-8.5, has the emissions accelerate throughout the century. The uncertainty about ice sheet dynamics can affect both pathways. In the best-case scenario, ice sheet under SSP1-2.6 gains enough mass by 2100 through surface mass balance feedbacks to reduce the sea levels by 2 cm (1 in). In the worst case, it adds 15 cm (6 in). For SSP5-8.5, the best-case scenario is adding 5 cm (2 in) to sea levels, and the worst-case is adding 23 cm (9 in).[7]

Trends of Greenland ice loss between 2002 and 2019[132]

Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997. Sea level rise from their loss is now unstoppable.[133][134][135] However the temperature changes in future, the warming of 2000–2019 had already damaged the ice sheet enough for it to eventually lose ~3.3% of its volume. This is leading to 27 cm (10+12 in) of future sea level rise.[136] At a certain level of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will almost completely melt. Ice cores show this happened at least once during the last million years, when the temperatures have at most been 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) warmer than the preindustrial.[137][138]

2012 research suggested that the tipping point of the ice sheet was between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3.2 °C (5.8 °F).[139] 2023 modelling has narrowed the tipping threshold to a 1.7 °C (3.1 °F)-2.3 °C (4.1 °F) range. If temperatures reach or exceed that level, reducing the global temperature to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial levels or lower would prevent the loss of the entire ice sheet. One way to do this in theory would be large-scale carbon dioxide removal. But it would also cause greater losses and sea level rise from Greenland than if the threshold was not breached in the first place.[140] Otherwise, the ice sheet would take between 10,000 and 15,000 years to disintegrate entirely once the tipping point had been crossed. The most likely estimate is 10,000 years.[78][79] If climate change continues along its worst trajectory and temperatures continue to rise quickly over multiple centuries, it would only take 1,000 years.[141]

Mountain glacier loss[edit]

Based on national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100—causing a sea level rise of 115±40 millimeters.[142]

There are roughly 200,000 glaciers on Earth, which are spread out across all continents.[143] Less than 1% of glacier ice is in mountain glaciers, compared to 99% in Greenland and Antarctica. However, this small size also makes mountain glaciers more vulnerable to melting than the larger ice sheets. This means they have had a disproportionate contribution to historical sea level rise and are set to contribute a smaller, but still significant fraction of sea level rise in the 21st century.[144] Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps show they contribute 0.2-0.4 mm per year to sea level rise, averaged over the 20th century.[145] The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was nearly as large as that of Greenland. It was 0.63 mm of sea level rise per year, equivalent to 34% of sea level rise from land ice sources.[130] Glaciers contributed around 40% to sea level rise during the 20th century, with estimates for the 21st century of around 30%.[5]

In 2023, a Science paper estimated that at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), one quarter of mountain glacier mass would be lost by 2100 and nearly half would be lost at 4 °C (7.2 °F), contributing ~9 cm (3+12 in) and ~15 cm (6 in) to sea level rise, respectively. Glacier mass is disproportionately concentrated in the most resilient glaciers. So in practice this would remove 49-83% of glacier formations. It further estimated that the current likely trajectory of 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) would result in the SLR contribution of ~11 cm (4+12 in) by 2100.[146] Mountain glaciers are even more vulnerable over the longer term. In 2022, another Science paper estimated that almost no mountain glaciers could survive once warming crosses 2 °C (3.6 °F). Their complete loss is largely inevitable around 3 °C (5.4 °F). There is even a possibility of complete loss after 2100 at just 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). This could happen as early as 50 years after the tipping point is crossed, although 200 years is the most likely value, and the maximum is around 1000 years.[78][79]

Sea ice loss[edit]

Sea ice loss contributes very slightly to global sea level rise. If the melt water from ice floating in the sea was exactly the same as sea water then, according to Archimedes' principle, no rise would occur. However melted sea ice contains less dissolved salt than sea water and is therefore less dense, with a slightly greater volume per unit of mass. If all floating ice shelves and icebergs were to melt sea level would only rise by about 4 cm (1+12 in).[147]

Trends in land water storage from GRACE observations in gigatons per year, April 2002 to November 2014 (glaciers and ice sheets are excluded).

Changes to land water storage[edit]

Human activity impacts how much water is stored on land. Dams retain large quantities of water, which is stored on land rather than flowing into the sea, though the total quantity stored will vary from time to time. On the other hand, humans extract water from lakes, wetlands and underground reservoirs for food production. This often causes subsidence. Furthermore, the hydrological cycle is influenced by climate change and deforestation. This can increase or reduce contributions to sea level rise. In the 20th century, these processes roughly balanced, but dam building has slowed down and is expected to stay low for the 21st century.[148][26]: 1155 

Water redistribution caused by irrigation from 1993 to 2010 caused a drift of Earth's rotational pole by 78.48 centimetres (30.90 in). This caused groundwater depletion equivalent to a global sea level rise of 6.24 millimetres (0.246 in).[149]

Impacts[edit]

High tide flooding, also called tidal flooding, has become much more common in the past seven decades.[150]

Sea-level rise has many impacts. They include higher and more frequent high-tide and storm-surge flooding and increased coastal erosion. Other impacts are inhibition of primary production processes, more extensive coastal inundation, and changes in surface water quality and groundwater. These can lead to a greater loss of property and coastal habitats, loss of life during floods and loss of cultural resources. There are also impacts on agriculture and aquaculture. There can also be loss of tourism, recreation, and transport-related functions.[10]: 356  Land use changes such as urbanisation or deforestation of low-lying coastal zones exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. Regions already vulnerable to rising sea level also struggle with coastal flooding. This washes away land and alters the landscape.[151]

Changes in emissions are likely to have only a small effect on the extent of sea level rise by 2050.[6] So projected sea level rise could put tens of millions of people at risk by then. Scientists estimate that 2050 levels of sea level rise would result in about 150 million people under the water line during high tide. About 300 million would be in places flooded every year. This projection is based on the distribution of population in 2010. It does not take into account the effects of population growth and human migration. These figures are 40 million and 50 million more respectively than the numbers at risk in 2010.[13][152] By 2100, there would be another 40 million people under the water line during high tide if sea level rise remains low. This figure would be 80 million for a high estimate of median sea level rise.[13] Ice sheet processes under the highest emission scenario would result in sea level rise of well over one metre (3+14 ft) by 2100. This could be as much as over two metres (6+12 ft),[16][4]: TS-45  This could result in as many as 520 million additional people ending up under the water line during high tide and 640 million in places flooded every year, compared to the 2010 population distribution.[13]

Major cities threatened by sea level rise. The cities indicated are under threat of even a small sea level rise (of 1.6 feet/49 cm) compared to the level in 2010. Even moderate projections indicate that such a rise will have occurred by 2060.[153][154]

Over the longer term, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. They are also vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increased precipitation, and rising ocean temperatures. Ten percent of the world's population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres (33 ft) above sea level. Two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.[155] About 600 million people live directly on the coast around the world.[156] Cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai will be especially vulnerable later in the century under warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F). This is close to the current trajectory.[12][36] LiDAR-based research had established in 2021 that 267 million people worldwide lived on land less than 2 m (6+12 ft) above sea level. With a 1 m (3+12 ft) sea level rise and zero population growth, that could increase to 410 million people.[157][158]

Potential disruption of sea trade and migrations could impact people living further inland. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned in 2023 that sea level rise risks causing human migrations on a "biblical scale".[159] Sea level rise will inevitably affect ports, but there is limited research on this. There is insufficient knowledge about the investments necessary to protect ports currently in use. This includes protecting current facilities before it becomes more reasonable to build new ports elsewhere.[160][161] Some coastal regions are rich agricultural lands. Their loss to the sea could cause food shortages. This is a particularly acute issue for river deltas such as Nile Delta in Egypt and Red River and Mekong Deltas in Vietnam. Saltwater intrusion into the soil and irrigation water has a disproportionate effect on them.[162][163]

Ecosystems[edit]

Bramble Cay melomys, the first known mammal species to go extinct due to sea level rise.

Flooding and soil/water salinization threaten the habitats of coastal plants, birds, and freshwater/estuarine fish when seawater reaches inland.[164] When coastal forest areas become inundated with saltwater to the point no trees can survive the resulting habitats are called ghost forests.[165][166] Starting around 2050, some nesting sites in Florida, Cuba, Ecuador and the island of Sint Eustatius for leatherback, loggerhead, hawksbill, green and olive ridley turtles are expected to be flooded. The proportion will increase over time.[167] In 2016, Bramble Cay islet in the Great Barrier Reef was inundated. This flooded the habitat of a rodent named Bramble Cay melomys.[168] It was officially declared extinct in 2019.[169]

An example of mangrove pneumatophores.

Some ecosystems can move inland with the high-water mark. But natural or artificial barriers prevent many from migrating. This coastal narrowing is sometimes called 'coastal squeeze' when it involves human-made barriers. It could result in the loss of habitats such as mudflats and tidal marshes.[23][170] Mangrove ecosystems on the mudflats of tropical coasts nurture high biodiversity. They are particularly vulnerable due to mangrove plants' reliance on breathing roots or pneumatophores. These will be submerged if the rate is too rapid for them to migrate upward. This would result in the loss of an ecosystem.[171][172][173][174] Both mangroves and tidal marshes protect against storm surges, waves and tsunamis, so their loss makes the effects of sea level rise worse.[175][176] Human activities such as dam building may restrict sediment supplies to wetlands. This would prevent natural adaptation processes. The loss of some tidal marshes is unavoidable as a consequence.[177]

Corals are important for bird and fish life. They need to grow vertically to remain close to the sea surface in order to get enough energy from sunlight. The corals have so far been able to keep up the vertical growth with the rising seas, but might not be able to do so in the future.[178]

Regional impacts[edit]

Africa[edit]

Aerial view of the Tanzanian capital Dar es Salaam

In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.[21]

Abidjan, the economic powerhouse of Ivory Coast
Maputo, the capital of Mozambique
Populations within 100-year floodplains.[21][T1 1]
Country 2000 2030 2060 Growth 2000–2060[T1 2]
Egypt 7.4 13.8 20.7 0.28
Nigeria 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.84
Senegal 0.4 1.1 2.7 0.76
Benin 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.12
Tanzania 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.3
Somalia 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.7
Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.65
Mozambique 0.7 1.4 2.5 0.36
  1. ^ In millions of people. The second and third columns include both the effects of population growth and the increased extent of floodplains by that point.
  2. ^ The increase in area's population and the highest plausible scenario of population growth.
A man looking out over the beach from a building destroyed by high tides in Chorkor, a suburb of Accra. Sunny day flooding caused by sea level rise, increases coastal erosion that destroys housing, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. A number of communities in Coastal Ghana are already experiencing the changing tides.

In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the East Africa region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 by 2050. These cities are Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo. Under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 the damage would amount to US$86.5 billion. The version of the high-emission scenario with additional impacts from high ice sheet instability would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages. The damage from these three scenarios accounting additionally for "low-probability, high-damage events" would rise to US$187 billion, US$206 billion and US$397 billion respectively.[21] In these estimates, the Egyptian city of Alexandria alone accounts for around half of this figure.[21] Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade.[162] Across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.[21]

The remains of Leptis Magna amphitheater, with the sea visible in the background

In the longer term, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. This projection assumes global warming will reach 4 °C by the end of the century. That rise is associated with the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century. These are the Casbah of Algiers, Carthage Archaeological site, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Archaeological site, Medina of Sousse, Medina of Tunis, Sabratha Archaeological site, Robben Island, Island of Saint-Louis and Tipasa. A total of 15 Ramsar sites and other natural heritage sites would face similar risks. These are Bao Bolong Wetland Reserve, Delta du Saloum National Park, Diawling National Park, Golfe de Boughrara, Kalissaye, Lagune de Ghar el Melh et Delta de la Mejerda, Marromeu Game Reserve, Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Provincial Nature Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel et Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d'Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Biosphere Reserve, Tanbi Wetland Complex and Watamu Marine National Park.[21]

Asia[edit]

Matsukawaura Lagoon, located in Fukushima Prefecture of Honshu Island

As of 2022, some 63 million people in East and South Asia were already at risk from a 100-year flood. This is largely due to inadequate coastal protection in many countries. This will get much worse in the future. Asia has the largest population at risk from sea level. Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam alone account for 70% of people exposed to sea level rise during the 21st century.[17][179] This is due to the dense population on the region's coasts. The rate of sea level rise in Asia is generally similar to the global average. One exception is the Indo-Pacific region, where it had been around 10% faster since the 1990s. Another is the coast of China, where globally "extreme" sea level rise has been visible since the 1980s. This may have a disproportionate impact on flood frequency. Future sea level rise on Japan's Honshu Island would be up to 25 cm faster than the global average under RCP8.5, the intense climate change scenario. RCP8.5 would also see the loss of at least one third of Japanese beaches and 57–72% of Thai beaches.[17]

Modeling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$8.5, 24 or 15 billion from population displacement at those levels. China, India, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Russia experience the largest economic losses.[17]

Out of the 20 coastal cities expected to see the highest flood losses by 2050, 13 are in Asia. For nine of these, subsidence would compound sea level rise. These are Bangkok, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Kolkata, Nagoya, Tianjin, Xiamen and Zhanjiang. By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated annual economic losses of US$254 million – the highest in the world. One estimate calculates that in the absence of adaptation, cumulative economic losses caused by sea level rise in Guangzhou under RCP8.5 would reach about US$331 billion by 2050, US$660 billion by 2070 and US$1.4 trillion by 2100. The impact of high-end ice sheet instability would increase these figures to about US$420 billion, US$840 billion and US$1.8 trillion respectively.[17]

In Shanghai, coastal inundation amounts to about 0.03% of local GDP. But this would increase to 0.8% by 2100 even under the "moderate" RCP4.5 scenario in the absence of adaptation. Likewise, failing to adapt to sea level rise in Mumbai would result in damage of US$112–162 billion by 2050, which would nearly triple by 2070. Authorities are carrying out adaptation projects like the Mumbai Coastal Road. But they are likely to affect coastal ecosystems and fishing livelihoods.[17] Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.[180]

Sea level rise in Bangladesh may force the relocation of up to one third of power plants by 2030. A similar proportion would have to deal with increased salinity of their cooling water. Recent search indicates that by 2050 sea-level rise will displace 0.9-2.1 million people. This would require the creation of about 594,000 new jobs and 197,000 housing units in the areas receiving the displaced persons. It would also be necessary to supply an additional 783 billion calories worth of food.[17] Another paper in 2021 estimated that sea-level rise would displace 816,000 people by 2050. This would increase to 1.3 million when indirect effects are taken into account.[181] Both studies assume that most displaced people would travel to the other areas of Bangladesh. They try to estimate population changes in different places.

2010 estimates of population exposure to sea level rise in Bangladesh
Net Variations in the Population Due to Sea Level Rise in 2050 in Selected Districts.[181]
District Net flux (Davis et al., 2018) Net flux (De Lellis et al., 2021) Rank (Davis et al., 2018)[T2 1] Rank (De Lellis et al., 2021)
Dhaka 207,373 −34, 060 1 11
Narayanganj −95,003 −126,694 2 1
Shariatpur −80,916 −124,444 3 3
Barisal −80,669 −64,252 4 6
Munshiganj −77,916 −124,598 5 2
Madaripur 61,791 −937 6 60
Chandpur −37,711 −70,998 7 4
Jhalakati 35,546 9,198 8 36
Satkhira −32,287 −19,603 9 23
Khulna −28,148 −9,982 10 33
Cox's Bazar −25,680 −16,366 11 24
Bagherat 24,860 12,263 12 28
  1. ^ Refers to the magnitude of population change relative to the other districts.

In an attempt to address these challenges, the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 was launched in 2018.[182][183] As of 2020, it was falling short of most of its initial targets.[184] The authorities are monitoring progress.[185]

In 2019, the president of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, said the city of Jakarta is sinking so much that it was necessary to move the capital to another city.[186] A study conducted between 1982 and 2010 found some areas of Jakarta have sunk by up to 28 cm (11 inches) per year.[187] This was due to ground water drilling and the weight of buildings. Sea-level rise is now making this worse. There are concerns that building in a new place will increase the number of trees being cut down.[188][189] Other so-called sinking cities, such as Bangkok or Tokyo, are vulnerable to combination of subsidence and sea level rise.[190]

Australasia[edit]

King's Beach at Caloundra

In Australia, erosion and flooding of Queensland's Sunshine Coast beaches is likely to intensify by 60% by 2030. Without adaptation there would be a big impact on tourism. Adaptation costs for sea level rise would be three times higher under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario than in the low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. Sea level rise of 0.2-0.3 meters is likely by 2050. In these conditions what is currently a 100-year flood would occur every year in the New Zealand cities of Wellington and Christchurch. With 0.5 m sea level rise, a current 100-year flood in Australia would occur several times a year. In New Zealand this would expose buildings with a collective worth of NZ$12.75 billion to new 100-year floods. A meter or so of sea level rise would threaten assets in New Zealand with a worth of NZD$25.5 billion. There would be a disproportionate impact on Maori-owned holdings and cultural heritage objects. Australian assets worth AUS$164–226 billion including many unsealed roads and railway lines would also be at risk. This amounts to a 111% rise in Australia's inundation costs between 2020 and 2100.[191]

Central and South America[edit]

An aerial view of São Paulo's Port of Santos

By 2100, coastal flooding and erosion will affect at least 3-4 million people in South America. Many people live in low-lying areas exposed to sea level rise. This includes 6% of the population of Venezuela, 56% of the population of Guyana and 68% of the population of Suriname. In Guyana much of the capital Georgetown is already below sea level. In Brazil, the coastal ecoregion of Caatinga is responsible for 99% of its shrimp production. A combination of sea level rise, ocean warming and ocean acidification threaten its unique. Extreme wave or wind behavior disrupted the port complex of Santa Catarina 76 times in one 6-year period in the 2010s. There was a US$25,000-50,000 loss for each idle day. In Port of Santos, storm surges were three times more frequent between 2000 and 2016 than between 1928 and 1999.[192]

Europe[edit]

Beach nourishment in progress in Barcelona.

Many sandy coastlines in Europe are vulnerable to erosion due to sea level rise. In Spain, Costa del Maresme is likely to retreat by 16 meters by 2050 relative to 2010. This could amount to 52 meters by 2100 under RCP8.5[193] Other vulnerable coastlines include the Tyrrhenian Sea coast of Italy's Calabria region,[194] the Barra-Vagueira coast in Portugal[195] and Nørlev Strand in Denmark.[196]

In France, it was estimated that 8,000-10,000 people would be forced to migrate away from the coasts by 2080.[197] The Italian city of Venice is located on islands. It is highly vulnerable to flooding and has already spent $6 billion on a barrier system.[198][199] A quarter of the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, inhabited by over 350,000 people, is at low elevation and has been vulnerable to flooding since preindustrial times. Many levees already exist. Because of its complex geography, the authorities chose a flexible mix of hard and soft measures to cope with sea level rise of over 1 meter per century.[200] In the United Kingdom, sea level at the end of the century would increase by 53 to 115 centimeters at the mouth of the River Thames and 30 to 90 centimeters at Edinburgh.[201] The UK has divided its coast into 22 areas, each covered by a Shoreline Management Plan. Those are sub-divided into 2000 management units, working across three periods of 0–20, 20-50 and 50–100 years.[200]

The Netherlands is a country that sits partially below sea level and is subsiding. It has responded by extending its Delta Works program.[202] Drafted in 2008, the Delta Commission report said that the country must plan for a rise in the North Sea up to 1.3 m (4 ft 3 in) by 2100 and plan for a 2–4 m (7–13 ft) rise by 2200.[203] It advised annual spending between €1.0 and €1.5 billion. This would support measures such as broadening coastal dunes and strengthening sea and river dikes. Worst-case evacuation plans were also drawn up.[204]

North America[edit]

Tidal flooding in Miami during a king tide (October 17, 2016). The risk of tidal flooding increases with sea level rise.

As of 2017, around 95 million Americans lived on the coast. The figures for Canada and Mexico were 6.5 million and 19 million. Increased chronic nuisance flooding and king tide flooding is already a problem in the highly vulnerable state of Florida.[205] The US East Coast is also vulnerable.[206] On average, the number of days with tidal flooding in the USA increased 2 times in the years 2000–2020, reaching 3–7 days per year. In some areas the increase was much stronger: 4 times in the Southeast Atlantic and 11 times in the Western Gulf. By the year 2030 the average number is expected to be 7–15 days, reaching 25–75 days by 2050.[207] U.S. coastal cities have responded with beach nourishment or beach replenishment. This trucks in mined sand in addition to other adaptation measures such as zoning, restrictions on state funding, and building code standards.[208][209] Along an estimated some 15% of the US coastline, the majority of local groundwater levels are already below sea level. This places those groundwater reservoirs at risk of sea water intrusion. That would render fresh water unusable once its concentration exceeds 2-3%.[210] Damage is also widespread in Canada. It will affect major cities like Halifax and more remote locations like Lennox Island. The Mi'kmaq community there is already considering relocation due to widespread coastal erosion. In Mexico, damage from SLR to tourism hotspots like Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel could amount to US$1.4–2.3 billion.[211] The increase in storm surge due to sea level rise is also a problem. Due to this effect Hurricane Sandy caused an additional US$8 billion in damage, impacted 36,000 more houses and 71,000 more people.[212][213]

In future, the northern Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Canada and the Pacific coast of Mexico would experience the greatest sea level rise. By 2030, flooding along the US Gulf Coast could cause economic losses of up to US$176 billion. Using nature-based solutions like wetland restoration and oyster reef restoration could avoid around US$50 billion of this.[211] By 2050, coastal flooding in the US is likely to rise tenfold to four "moderate" flooding events per year. That forecast is even without storms or heavy rainfall.[214][215] In New York City, current 100-year flood would occur once in 19–68 years by 2050 and 4–60 years by 2080.[216] By 2050, 20 million people in the greater New York City area would be at risk. This is because 40% of existing water treatment facilities would be compromised and 60% of power plants will need relocation. By 2100, sea level rise of 0.9 m (3 ft) and 1.8 m (6 ft) would threaten 4.2 and 13.1 million people in the US, respectively. In California alone, 2 m (6+12 ft) of SLR could affect 600,000 people and threaten over US$150 billion in property with inundation. This potentially represents over 6% of the state's GDP. In North Carolina, a meter of SLR inundates 42% of the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula, costing up to US$14 billion. In nine southeast US states, the same level of sea level rise would claim up to 13,000 historical and archaeological sites, including over 1000 sites eligible for inclusion in the National Register for Historic Places.[211]

Island nations[edit]

Malé, the capital island of Maldives.

Small island states are nations with populations on atolls and other low islands. Atolls on average reach 0.9–1.8 m (3–6 ft) above sea level.[217] These are the most vulnerable places to coastal erosion, flooding and salt intrusion into soils and freshwater caused by sea level rise. Sea level rise may make an island uninhabitable before it is completely flooded.[218] Already, children in small island states encounter hampered access to food and water. They suffer an increased rate of mental and social disorders due to these stresses.[219] At current rates, sea level rise would be high enough to make the Maldives uninhabitable by 2100.[220][221] Five of the Solomon Islands have already disappeared due to the effects of sea level rise and stronger trade winds pushing water into the Western Pacific.[222]

Surface area change of islands in the Central Pacific and Solomon Islands[223]

Adaptation to sea level rise is costly for small island nations as a large portion of their population lives in areas that are at risk.[224] Nations like Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu already have to consider controlled international migration of their population in response to rising seas.[225] The alternative of uncontrolled migration threatens to worsen the humanitarian crisis of climate refugees.[226] In 2014, Kiribati purchased 20 square kilometers of land (about 2.5% of Kiribati's current area) on the Fijian island of Vanua Levu to relocate its population once their own islands are lost to the sea.[227]

Fiji also suffers from sea level rise.[228] It is in a comparatively safer position. Its residents continue to rely on local adaptation like moving further inland and increasing sediment supply to combat erosion instead of relocating entirely.[225] Fiji has also issued a green bond of $50 million to invest in green initiatives and fund adaptation efforts. It is restoring coral reefs and mangroves to protect against flooding and erosion. It sees this as a more cost-efficient alternative to building sea walls. The nations of Palau and Tonga are taking similar steps.[225][229] Even when an island is not threatened with complete disappearance from flooding, tourism and local economies may end up devastated. For instance, sea level rise of 1.0 m (3 ft 3 in) would cause partial or complete inundation of 29% of coastal resorts in the Caribbean. A further 49–60% of coastal resorts would be at risk from resulting coastal erosion.[230]

Adaptation[edit]

Oosterscheldekering, the largest barrier of the Dutch Delta Works.

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can slow and stabilize the rate of sea level rise after 2050. This would greatly reduce its costs and damages, but cannot stop it outright. So climate change adaptation to sea level rise is inevitable.[231]: 3–127  The simplest approach is to stop development in vulnerable areas and ultimately move people and infrastructure away from them. Such retreat from sea level rise often results in the loss of livelihoods. The displacement of newly impoverished people could burden their new homes and accelerate social tensions.[232]

It is possible to avoid or at least delay the retreat from sea level rise with enhanced protections. These include dams, levees or improved natural defenses.[20] Other options include updating building standards to reduce damage from floods, addition of storm water valves to address more frequent and severe flooding at high tide,[233] or cultivating crops more tolerant of saltwater in the soil, even at an increased cost.[163][20][234] These options divide into hard and soft adaptation. Hard adaptation generally involves large-scale changes to human societies and ecological systems. It often includes the construction of capital-intensive infrastructure. Soft adaptation involves strengthening natural defenses and local community adaptation. This usually involves simple, modular and locally owned technology. The two types of adaptation may be complementary or mutually exclusive.[234][235] Adaptation options often require significant investment. But the costs of doing nothing are far greater. One example would involve adaptation against flooding. Effective adaptation measures could reduce future annual costs of flooding in 136 of the world's largest coastal cities from $1 trillion by 2050 without adaptation to a little over $60 billion annually. The cost would be $50 billion per year.[236][237] Some experts argue that retreat from the coast would have a lower impact on the GDP of India and Southeast Asia then attempting to protect every coastline, in the case of very high sea level rise.[238]

Planning for the future sea level rise used in the United Kingdom.[200]

To be successful, adaptation must anticipate sea level rise well ahead of time. As of 2023, the global state of adaptation planning is mixed. A survey of 253 planners from 49 countries found that 98% are aware of sea level rise projections, but 26% have not yet formally integrated them into their policy documents. Only around a third of respondents from Asian and South American countries have done so. This compares with 50% in Africa, and over 75% in Europe, Australasia and North America. Some 56% of all surveyed planners have plans which account for 2050 and 2100 sea level rise. But 53% use only a single projection rather than a range of two or three projections. Just 14% use four projections, including the one for "extreme" or "high-end" sea level rise.[239] Another study found that over 75% of regional sea level rise assessments from the West and Northeastern United States included at least three estimates. These are usually RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and sometimes include extreme scenarios. But 88% of projections from the American South had only a single estimate. Similarly, no assessment from the South went beyond 2100. By contrast 14 assessments from the West went up to 2150, and three from the Northeast went to 2200. 56% of all localities were also found to underestimate the upper end of sea level rise relative to IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.[240]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Climate Change Indicators: Sea Level / Figure 1. Absolute Sea Level Change". EPA.gov. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). July 2022. Archived from the original on 4 September 2023. Data sources: CSIRO, 2017. NOAA, 2022.
  2. ^ IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, New York, US. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.001.
  3. ^ a b c "WMO annual report highlights continuous advance of climate change". World Meteorological Organization. 21 April 2023. Press Release Number: 21042023
  4. ^ a b c d e f IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
  5. ^ a b c d e WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group (2018). "Global sea-level budget 1993–present". Earth System Science Data. 10 (3): 1551–1590. Bibcode:2018ESSD...10.1551W. doi:10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018. This corresponds to a mean sea-level rise of about 7.5 cm over the whole altimetry period. More importantly, the GMSL curve shows a net acceleration, estimated to be at 0.08mm/yr2.
  6. ^ a b National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2011). "Synopsis". Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. p. 5. doi:10.17226/12877. ISBN 978-0-309-15176-4. Box SYN-1: Sustained warming could lead to severe impacts
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, Helene T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, T. L.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R. E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S. L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). "Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US: 1302.
  8. ^ McMichael, Celia; Dasgupta, Shouro; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Kelman, Ilan (2020-11-27). "A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration". Environmental Research Letters. 15 (12): 123005. Bibcode:2020ERL....15l3005M. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb398. ISSN 1748-9326. PMC 8208600. PMID 34149864.
  9. ^ Bindoff, N. L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; Le Quéré, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Talley, L. D.; Unnikrishnan, A. (2007). "Observations: Ocean Climate Change and Sea Level: §5.5.1: Introductory Remarks". In Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K. B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H. L. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1. Archived from the original on 20 June 2017. Retrieved 25 January 2017.
  10. ^ a b TAR Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (PDF) (Report). International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 2001. ISBN 0521-80767-0. Retrieved 23 July 2021.
  11. ^ "Sea level to increase risk of deadly tsunamis". United Press International. 2018.
  12. ^ a b Holder, Josh; Kommenda, Niko; Watts, Jonathan (3 November 2017). "The three-degree world: cities that will be drowned by global warming". The Guardian. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  13. ^ a b c d Kulp, Scott A.; Strauss, Benjamin H. (29 October 2019). "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 4844. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.4844K. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. PMC 6820795. PMID 31664024.
  14. ^ Mimura, Nobuo (2013). "Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society". Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences. 89 (7): 281–301. Bibcode:2013PJAB...89..281M. doi:10.2183/pjab.89.281. ISSN 0386-2208. PMC 3758961. PMID 23883609.
  15. ^ Choi, Charles Q. (27 June 2012). "Sea Levels Rising Fast on U.S. East Coast". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on May 4, 2021. Retrieved October 22, 2022.
  16. ^ a b c d "2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report". oceanservice.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2022-07-04.
  17. ^ a b c d e f g Shaw, R., Y. Luo, T. S. Cheong, S. Abdul Halim, S. Chaturvedi, M. Hashizume, G. E. Insarov, Y. Ishikawa, M. Jafari, A. Kitoh, J. Pulhin, C. Singh, K. Vasant, and Z. Zhang, 2022: Chapter 10: Asia. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 1457–1579 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.012.
  18. ^ Mycoo, M., M. Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O. Warrick, 2022: Chapter 15: Small islands. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.017.
  19. ^ "IPCC's New Estimates for Increased Sea-Level Rise". Yale University Press. 2013.
  20. ^ a b c Thomsen, Dana C.; Smith, Timothy F.; Keys, Noni (2012). "Adaptation or Manipulation? Unpacking Climate Change Response Strategies". Ecology and Society. 17 (3). doi:10.5751/es-04953-170320. JSTOR 26269087.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h Trisos, C. H., I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N. P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: Chapter 9: Africa. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.011.
  22. ^ Nicholls, Robert J.; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A.; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; Gusmão, Diogo de; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S. J. (2011). "Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C (39.2°F)world' in the twenty-first century". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 369 (1934): 161–181. Bibcode:2011RSPTA.369..161N. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291. ISSN 1364-503X. PMID 21115518. S2CID 8238425.
  23. ^ a b "Sea level rise poses a major threat to coastal ecosystems and the biota they support". birdlife.org. Birdlife International. 2015.
  24. ^ 27-year Sea Level Rise – TOPEX/JASON NASA Visualization Studio, 5 November 2020. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  25. ^ Katsman, Caroline A.; Sterl, A.; Beersma, J. J.; van den Brink, H. W.; Church, J. A.; Hazeleger, W.; Kopp, R. E.; Kroon, D.; Kwadijk, J. (2011). "Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example". Climatic Change. 109 (3–4): 617–645. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5. ISSN 0165-0009. S2CID 2242594.
  26. ^ a b c d e f g h Church, J. A.; Clark, P. U. (2013). "Sea Level Change". In Stocker, T. F.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US: Cambridge University Press.
  27. ^ Rovere, Alessio; Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo (2 August 2016). "Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes". Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4): 221–231. Bibcode:2016CCCR....2..221R. doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0045-7. S2CID 131866367.
  28. ^ "Why the U.S. East Coast could be a major 'hotspot' for rising seas". The Washington Post. 2016.
  29. ^ Jianjun Yin & Stephen Griffies (March 25, 2015). "Extreme sea level rise event linked to AMOC downturn". CLIVAR.
  30. ^ Tessler, Z. D.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Grossberg, M.; Gladkova, I.; Aizenman, H.; Syvitski, J. P. M.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2015-08-07). "Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world" (PDF). Science. 349 (6248): 638–643. Bibcode:2015Sci...349..638T. doi:10.1126/science.aab3574. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 26250684. S2CID 12295500.
  31. ^ a b Bucx, Tom (2010). Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas: synthesis report. Delft, Netherlands: Deltares. ISBN 978-94-90070-39-7. OCLC 768078077.
  32. ^ Cazenave, Anny; Nicholls, Robert J. (2010). "Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones". Science. 328 (5985): 1517–1520. Bibcode:2010Sci...328.1517N. doi:10.1126/science.1185782. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 20558707. S2CID 199393735.
  33. ^ a b c Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda (8 March 2016). "Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 113 (10): 2597–2602. Bibcode:2016PNAS..113.2597M. doi:10.1073/pnas.1500515113. PMC 4791025. PMID 26903648.
  34. ^ Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jacob, Daniela; Taylor, Michael (2018). "Impacts of 1.5 °C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems" (PDF). Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. In Press. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-19. Retrieved 2019-01-18.
  35. ^ "January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States" (PDF).
  36. ^ a b "The CAT Thermometer". Retrieved 8 January 2023.
  37. ^ a b Pattyn, Frank (16 July 2018). "The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 2728. Bibcode:2018NatCo...9.2728P. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z. PMC 6048022. PMID 30013142.
  38. ^ a b c Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert M.; Alley, Richard B. (February 2015). "Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure". Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 412: 112–121. Bibcode:2015E&PSL.412..112P. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035.
  39. ^ a b Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai (22 March 2016). "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 16 (6): 3761–3812. arXiv:1602.01393. Bibcode:2016ACP....16.3761H. doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016. S2CID 9410444.
  40. ^ "Ice sheet melt on track with 'worst-case climate scenario'". www.esa.int. Retrieved 8 September 2020.
  41. ^ a b Slater, Thomas; Hogg, Anna E.; Mottram, Ruth (31 August 2020). "Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections". Nature Climate Change. 10 (10): 879–881. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..879S. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0893-y. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 221381924. Archived from the original on 2 September 2020. Retrieved 8 September 2020.
  42. ^ Grinsted, Aslak; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg (2 February 2021). "The transient sensitivity of sea level rise". Ocean Science. 17 (1): 181–186. Bibcode:2021OcSci..17..181G. doi:10.5194/os-17-181-2021. ISSN 1812-0784. S2CID 234353584.
  43. ^ Chris Mooney (October 26, 2017). "New science suggests the ocean could rise more – and faster – than we thought". The Chicago Tribune. Chicago, Illinois.
  44. ^ Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias (1 November 2017). "Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". Environmental Research Letters. 12 (11): 114002. Bibcode:2017ERL....12k4002N. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6.
  45. ^ "James Hansen's controversial sea level rise paper has now been published online". The Washington Post. 2015. There is no doubt that the sea level rise, within the IPCC, is a very conservative number," says Greg Holland, a climate and hurricane researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who has also reviewed the Hansen study. "So the truth lies somewhere between IPCC and Jim.
  46. ^ a b Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan (2020-05-08). "Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3 (1): 18. Bibcode:2020npCAS...3...18H. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5. S2CID 218541055.
  47. ^ a b L. Bamber, Jonathan; Oppenheimer, Michael; E. Kopp, Robert; P. Aspinall, Willy; M. Cooke, Roger (May 2019). "Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (23): 11195–11200. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11611195B. doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116. PMC 6561295. PMID 31110015.
  48. ^ a b "Anticipating Future Sea Levels". EarthObservatory.NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2021. Archived from the original on 7 July 2021.
  49. ^ National Research Council (2010). "7 Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment". Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. p. 245. doi:10.17226/12782. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. Retrieved 2011-06-17.
  50. ^ Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre (10 February 2009). "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106 (6): 1704–1709. Bibcode:2009PNAS..106.1704S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106. PMC 2632717. PMID 19179281.
  51. ^ Pattyn, Frank; Ritz, Catherine; Hanna, Edward; Asay-Davis, Xylar; DeConto, Rob; Durand, Gaël; Favier, Lionel; Fettweis, Xavier; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.; Robinson, Alexander; Seroussi, Hélène; Trusel, Luke D.; van den Broeke, Michiel (12 November 2018). "The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 8 (12): 1053–1061. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8.1053P. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8. S2CID 91886763.
  52. ^ Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken (11 September 2015). "Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet". Science Advances. 1 (8): e1500589. Bibcode:2015SciA....1E0589W. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500589. PMC 4643791. PMID 26601273.
  53. ^ Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF). IPCC. August 2021. p. TS14. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
  54. ^ Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (20 February 2018). "Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 601. Bibcode:2018NatCo...9..601M. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8. PMC 5820313. PMID 29463787.
  55. ^ "2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report". oceanservice.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  56. ^ Rovere, Alessio; Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo (2 August 2016). "Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes". Current Climate Change Reports. 2 (4): 221–231. Bibcode:2016CCCR....2..221R. doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0045-7. S2CID 131866367.
  57. ^ "Ocean Surface Topography from Space". NASA/JPL. Archived from the original on 2011-07-22.
  58. ^ "Jason-3 Satellite – Mission". www.nesdis.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2018-08-22.
  59. ^ Nerem, R. S.; Beckley, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T.; Hamlington, B. D.; Masters, D.; Mitchum, G. T. (27 February 2018). "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 115 (9): 2022–2025. Bibcode:2018PNAS..115.2022N. doi:10.1073/pnas.1717312115. PMC 5834701. PMID 29440401.
  60. ^ Merrifield, Mark A.; Thompson, Philip R.; Lander, Mark (July 2012). "Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (13): n/a. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..3913602M. doi:10.1029/2012gl052032. S2CID 128907116.
  61. ^ Mantua, Nathan J.; Hare, Steven R.; Zhang, Yuan; Wallace, John M.; Francis, Robert C. (June 1997). "A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78 (6): 1069–1079. Bibcode:1997BAMS...78.1069M. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.
  62. ^ Lindsey, Rebecca (2019) Climate Change: Global Sea Level NOAA Climate, 19 November 2019.
  63. ^ a b Rhein, Monika; Rintoul, Stephan (2013). "Observations: Ocean" (PDF). IPCC AR5 WGI. New York: Cambridge University Press. p. 285. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-06-13. Retrieved 2018-08-26.
  64. ^ "Other Long Records not in the PSMSL Data Set". PSMSL. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  65. ^ Hunter, John; R. Coleman; D. Pugh (2003). "The Sea Level at Port Arthur, Tasmania, from 1841 to the Present". Geophysical Research Letters. 30 (7): 1401. Bibcode:2003GeoRL..30.1401H. doi:10.1029/2002GL016813. S2CID 55384210.
  66. ^ Church, J.A.; White, N.J. (2006). "20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise". Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (1): L01602. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..33.1602C. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.192.1792. doi:10.1029/2005GL024826. S2CID 129887186.
  67. ^ "Historical sea level changes: Last decades". www.cmar.csiro.au. Retrieved 2018-08-26.
  68. ^ Neil, White. "Historical Sea Level Changes". CSIRO. Retrieved 25 April 2013.
  69. ^ "Global and European sea level rise". European Environment Agency. 18 November 2021.
  70. ^ "Scientists discover evidence for past high-level sea rise". phys.org. 2019-08-30. Retrieved 2019-09-07.
  71. ^ "Present CO2 levels caused 20-metre-sea-level rise in the past". Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research.
  72. ^ Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm (28 October 2014). "Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 111 (43): 15296–15303. Bibcode:2014PNAS..11115296L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1411762111. PMC 4217469. PMID 25313072.
  73. ^ Slater, Thomas; Lawrence, Isobel R.; Otosaka, Inès N.; Shepherd, Andrew; et al. (25 January 2021). "Review article: Earth's ice imbalance". The Cryosphere. 15 (1): 233–246. Bibcode:2021TCry...15..233S. doi:10.5194/tc-15-233-2021. ISSN 1994-0416. S2CID 234098716. Fig. 4.
  74. ^ a b c IMBIE team (13 June 2018). "Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017". Nature. 558 (7709): 219–222. Bibcode:2018Natur.558..219I. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y. hdl:2268/225208. PMID 29899482. S2CID 49188002.
  75. ^ a b Rignot, Eric; Mouginot, Jérémie; Scheuchl, Bernd; van den Broeke, Michiel; van Wessem, Melchior J.; Morlighem, Mathieu (22 January 2019). "Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (4): 1095–1103. Bibcode:2019PNAS..116.1095R. doi:10.1073/pnas.1812883116. PMC 6347714. PMID 30642972.
  76. ^ a b c d e Zwally, H. Jay; Robbins, John W.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Rémy, Frédérique (29 March 2021). "Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry". Journal of Glaciology. 67 (263): 533–559. Bibcode:2021JGlac..67..533Z. doi:10.1017/jog.2021.8. Although their methods of interpolation or extrapolation for areas with unobserved output velocities have an insufficient description for the evaluation of associated errors, such errors in previous results (Rignot and others, 2008) caused large overestimates of the mass losses as detailed in Zwally and Giovinetto (Zwally and Giovinetto, 2011).
  77. ^ "How would sea level change if all glaciers melted?". United States Geological Survey. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  78. ^ a b c d e f Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science. 377 (6611): eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950. hdl:10871/131584. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 36074831. S2CID 252161375.
  79. ^ a b c d e f Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  80. ^ Top 700 meters: Lindsey, Rebecca; Dahlman, Luann (6 September 2023). "Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content". climate.gov. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Archived from the original on 29 October 2023.Top 2000 meters: "Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955". NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Archived from the original on 20 October 2023.
  81. ^ Cheng, Lijing; Foster, Grant; Hausfather, Zeke; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Abraham, John (2022). "Improved Quantification of the Rate of Ocean Warming". Journal of Climate. 35 (14): 4827–4840. Bibcode:2022JCli...35.4827C. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0895.1.
  82. ^ Levitus, S.; Boyer, T.; Antonov, J. (2005). "Warming of the world ocean: 1955–2003". Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (2). doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.
  83. ^ Upton, John (2016-01-19). "Deep Ocean Waters Are Trapping Vast Stores of Heat". Scientific American. Retrieved 2019-02-01.
  84. ^ Kuhlbrodt, T; Gregory, J.M. (2012). "Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (18): L18608. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..3918608K. doi:10.1029/2012GL052952. S2CID 19120823.
  85. ^ "Antarctic Factsheet". British Antarctic Survey. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  86. ^ a b NASA (7 July 2023). "Antarctic Ice Mass Loss 2002-2023".
  87. ^ Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik; et al. (IMBIE team) (2012). "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance". Science. 338 (6111): 1183–1189. Bibcode:2012Sci...338.1183S. doi:10.1126/science.1228102. hdl:2060/20140006608. PMID 23197528. S2CID 32653236.
  88. ^ Scott K. Johnson (2018-06-13). "Latest estimate shows how much Antarctic ice has fallen into the sea". Ars Technica.
  89. ^ a b Greene, Chad A.; Young, Duncan A.; Gwyther, David E.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Blankenship, Donald D. (6 September 2018). "Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing". The Cryosphere. 12 (9): 2869–2882. Bibcode:2018TCry...12.2869G. doi:10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018.
  90. ^ a b "Antarctica ice melt has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades". CNN. 14 January 2019. Retrieved January 14, 2019. Melting is taking place in the most vulnerable parts of Antarctica ... parts that hold the potential for multiple metres of sea level rise in the coming century or two
  91. ^ Edwards, Tamsin L.; Nowicki, Sophie; Marzeion, Ben; Hock, Regine; et al. (5 May 2021). "Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise". Nature. 593 (7857): 74–82. Bibcode:2021Natur.593...74E. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y. hdl:1874/412157. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 33953415. S2CID 233871029. Archived from the original on 11 May 2021. Alt URL https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/173870/
  92. ^ Fretwell, P.; Pritchard, H. D.; Vaughan, D. G.; Bamber, J. L.; Barrand, N. E.; Bell, R.; Bianchi, C.; Bingham, R. G.; Blankenship, D. D.; Casassa, G.; Catania, G.; Callens, D.; Conway, H.; Cook, A. J.; Corr, H. F. J.; Damaske, D.; Damm, V.; Ferraccioli, F.; Forsberg, R.; Fujita, S.; Gim, Y.; Gogineni, P.; Griggs, J. A.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Holmlund, P.; Holt, J. W.; Jacobel, R. W.; Jenkins, A.; Jokat, W.; Jordan, T.; King, E. C.; Kohler, J.; Krabill, W.; Riger-Kusk, M.; Langley, K. A.; Leitchenkov, G.; Leuschen, C.; Luyendyk, B. P.; Matsuoka, K.; Mouginot, J.; Nitsche, F. O.; Nogi, Y.; Nost, O. A.; Popov, S. V.; Rignot, E.; Rippin, D. M.; Rivera, A.; Roberts, J.; Ross, N.; Siegert, M. J.; Smith, A. M.; Steinhage, D.; Studinger, M.; Sun, B.; Tinto, B. K.; Welch, B. C.; Wilson, D.; Young, D. A.; Xiangbin, C.; Zirizzotti, A. (28 February 2013). "Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica". The Cryosphere. 7 (1): 375–393. Bibcode:2013TCry....7..375F. doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013.
  93. ^ Singh, Hansi A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (10 January 2020). "Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3 (1): 39. Bibcode:2020npCAS...3...39S. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00143-w. S2CID 222179485.
  94. ^ King, M. A.; Bingham, R. J.; Moore, P.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Bentley, M. J.; Milne, G. A. (2012). "Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution". Nature. 491 (7425): 586–589. Bibcode:2012Natur.491..586K. doi:10.1038/nature11621. PMID 23086145. S2CID 4414976.
  95. ^ Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Blankenship, D.; Tapley, B. D. (2009). "Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements". Nature Geoscience. 2 (12): 859. Bibcode:2009NatGe...2..859C. doi:10.1038/ngeo694. S2CID 130927366.
  96. ^ Brancato, V.; Rignot, E.; Milillo, P.; Morlighem, M.; Mouginot, J.; An, L.; Scheuchl, B.; Jeong, S.; Rizzoli, P.; Bueso Bello, J.L.; Prats-Iraola, P. (2020). "Grounding line retreat of Denman Glacier, East Antarctica, measured with COSMO-SkyMed radar interferometry data". Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (7): e2019GL086291. Bibcode:2020GeoRL..4786291B. doi:10.1029/2019GL086291. ISSN 0094-8276.
  97. ^ Amos, Jonathan (2020-03-23). "Climate change: Earth's deepest ice canyon vulnerable to melting". BBC.
  98. ^ Greene, Chad A.; Blankenship, Donald D.; Gwyther, David E.; Silvano, Alessandro; van Wijk, Esmee (1 November 2017). "Wind causes Totten Ice Shelf melt and acceleration". Science Advances. 3 (11): e1701681. Bibcode:2017SciA....3E1681G. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1701681. PMC 5665591. PMID 29109976.
  99. ^ Roberts, Jason; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Paolo, Fernando S.; Donnelly, Claire; Gwyther, David E.; Padman, Laurie; Young, Duncan; Warner, Roland; Greenbaum, Jamin; Fricker, Helen A.; Payne, Antony J.; Cornford, Stephen; Le Brocq, Anne; van Ommen, Tas; Blankenship, Don; Siegert, Martin J. (2018). "Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss". Geological Society, London, Special Publications. 461 (1): 175–186. Bibcode:2018GSLSP.461..175R. doi:10.1144/sp461.6. S2CID 55567382.
  100. ^ Greenbaum, J. S.; Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Richter, T. G.; Roberts, J. L.; Aitken, A. R. A.; Legresy, B.; Schroeder, D. M.; Warner, R. C.; van Ommen, T. D.; Siegert, M. J. (16 March 2015). "Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica". Nature Geoscience. 8 (4): 294–298. Bibcode:2015NatGe...8..294G. doi:10.1038/ngeo2388.
  101. ^ a b Pan, Linda; Powell, Evelyn M.; Latychev, Konstantin; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Creveling, Jessica R.; Gomez, Natalya; Hoggard, Mark J.; Clark, Peter U. (30 April 2021). "Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse". Science Advances. 7 (18). Bibcode:2021SciA....7.7787P. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf7787. PMC 8087405. PMID 33931453.
  102. ^ a b Garbe, Julius; Albrecht, Torsten; Levermann, Anders; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2020). "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet". Nature. 585 (7826): 538–544. Bibcode:2020Natur.585..538G. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5. PMID 32968257. S2CID 221885420.
  103. ^ Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (16 April 2015). "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica". Climate Dynamics. 46 (1–2): 263–271. Bibcode:2016ClDy...46..263L. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5. S2CID 131723421.
  104. ^ Rignot, Eric; Bamber, Jonathan L.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Davis, Curt; Li, Yonghong; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van Meijgaard, Erik (13 January 2008). "Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling". Nature Geoscience. 1 (2): 106–110. Bibcode:2008NatGe...1..106R. doi:10.1038/ngeo102. S2CID 784105.
  105. ^ a b Voosen, Paul (13 December 2021). "Ice shelf holding back keystone Antarctic glacier within years of failure". Science Magazine. Retrieved 2022-10-22. Because Thwaites sits below sea level on ground that dips away from the coast, the warm water is likely to melt its way inland, beneath the glacier itself, freeing its underbelly from bedrock. A collapse of the entire glacier, which some researchers think is only centuries away, would raise global sea level by 65 centimeters.
  106. ^ Amos, Jonathan (December 13, 2021). "Thwaites: Antarctic glacier heading for dramatic change". BBC News. London. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
  107. ^ "The Threat from Thwaites: The Retreat of Antarctica's Riskiest Glacier" (Press release). Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). University of Colorado Boulder. 2021-12-13. Archived from the original on 2022-02-21. Retrieved 2021-12-14.
  108. ^ "After Decades of Losing Ice, Antarctica Is Now Hemorrhaging It". The Atlantic. 2018.
  109. ^ "Marine ice sheet instability". AntarcticGlaciers.org. 2014.
  110. ^ Kaplan, Sarah (December 13, 2021). "Crucial Antarctic ice shelf could fail within five years, scientists say". The Washington Post. Washington DC. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
  111. ^ Robel, Alexander A.; Seroussi, Hélène; Roe, Gerard H. (23 July 2019). "Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (30): 14887–14892. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11614887R. doi:10.1073/pnas.1904822116. PMC 6660720. PMID 31285345.
  112. ^ Perkins, Sid (June 17, 2021). "Collapse may not always be inevitable for marine ice cliffs". ScienceNews. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
  113. ^ Golledge, Nicholas R.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Gomez, Natalya; Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Bernales, Jorge; Trusel, Luke D.; Edwards, Tamsin L. (2019). "Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt". Nature. 566 (7742): 65–72. Bibcode:2019Natur.566...65G. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 30728520. S2CID 59606358.
  114. ^ Moorman, Ruth; Morrison, Adele K.; Hogg, Andrew McC (2020-08-01). "Thermal Responses to Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt in an Eddy-Rich Global Ocean–Sea Ice Model". Journal of Climate. 33 (15): 6599–6620. Bibcode:2020JCli...33.6599M. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0846.1. ISSN 0894-8755. S2CID 219487981.
  115. ^ a b A. Naughten, Kaitlin; R. Holland, Paul; De Rydt, Jan (23 October 2023). "Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century". Nature Climate Change. 13 (11): 1222–1228. Bibcode:2023NatCC..13.1222N. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x. S2CID 264476246.
  116. ^ Fretwell, P.; et al. (28 February 2013). "Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica" (PDF). The Cryosphere. 7 (1): 390. Bibcode:2013TCry....7..375F. doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013. S2CID 13129041. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 February 2020. Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  117. ^ Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E. (3 February 2016). "Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years". Nature Communications. 7: 10325. Bibcode:2016NatCo...710325H. doi:10.1038/ncomms10325. PMC 4742792. PMID 26838462.
  118. ^ Bamber, J.L.; Riva, R.E.M.; Vermeersen, B.L.A.; LeBrocq, A.M. (14 May 2009). "Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet". Science. 324 (5929): 901–903. Bibcode:2009Sci...324..901B. doi:10.1126/science.1169335. PMID 19443778. S2CID 11083712.
  119. ^ Voosen, Paul (2018-12-18). "Discovery of recent Antarctic ice sheet collapse raises fears of a new global flood". Science. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
  120. ^ Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Sebille, Erik van; Jones, Richard T.; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David P.; Davies, Siwan M.; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk (2020-02-11). "Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (8): 3996–4006. Bibcode:2020PNAS..117.3996T. doi:10.1073/pnas.1902469117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7049167. PMID 32047039.
  121. ^ Carlson, Anders E; Walczak, Maureen H; Beard, Brian L; Laffin, Matthew K; Stoner, Joseph S; Hatfield, Robert G (10 December 2018). Absence of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.
  122. ^ Lau, Sally C. Y.; Wilson, Nerida G.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Naish, Tim R.; Watts, Phillip C.; Silva, Catarina N. S.; Cooke, Ira R.; Allcock, A. Louise; Mark, Felix C.; Linse, Katrin (21 December 2023). "Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial" (PDF). Science. 382 (6677): 1384–1389. Bibcode:2023Sci...382.1384L. doi:10.1126/science.ade0664. PMID 38127761. S2CID 266436146.
  123. ^ AHMED, Issam. "Antarctic octopus DNA reveals ice sheet collapse closer than thought". phys.org. Retrieved 2023-12-23.
  124. ^ Poynting, Mark (24 October 2023). "Sea-level rise: West Antarctic ice shelf melt 'unavoidable'". BBC. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  125. ^ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "Feasibility of ice sheet conservation using seabed anchored curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (3): pgad053. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad053. PMC 10062297. PMID 37007716.
  126. ^ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (4): pgad103. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad103. PMC 10118300. PMID 37091546.
  127. ^ "NASA Earth Observatory - Newsroom". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 18 January 2019.
  128. ^ Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H. (16 December 2015). "Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900". Nature. 528 (7582): 396–400. Bibcode:2015Natur.528..396K. doi:10.1038/nature16183. hdl:10852/50174. PMID 26672555. S2CID 4468824.
  129. ^ Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik; Rignot, Eric; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel; Velicogna, Isabella; Whitehouse, Pippa; Briggs, Kate; Joughin, Ian; Krinner, Gerhard; Nowicki, Sophie (2020-03-12). "Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018". Nature. 579 (7798): 233–239. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2. hdl:2268/242139. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 31822019. S2CID 219146922.
  130. ^ a b Bamber, Jonathan L; Westaway, Richard M; Marzeion, Ben; Wouters, Bert (1 June 2018). "The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era". Environmental Research Letters. 13 (6): 063008. Bibcode:2018ERL....13f3008B. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0.
  131. ^ "Greenland ice loss is at 'worse-case scenario' levels, study finds". UCI News. 2019-12-19. Retrieved 2019-12-28.
  132. ^ Sasgen, Ingo; Wouters, Bert; Gardner, Alex S.; King, Michalea D.; Tedesco, Marco; Landerer, Felix W.; Dahle, Christoph; Save, Himanshu; Fettweis, Xavier (20 August 2020). "Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites". Communications Earth & Environment. 1 (1): 8. Bibcode:2020ComEE...1....8S. doi:10.1038/s43247-020-0010-1. ISSN 2662-4435. S2CID 221200001. Text and images are available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
  133. ^ Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R. (31 March 2017). "A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps". Nature Communications. 8 (1): 14730. Bibcode:2017NatCo...814730N. doi:10.1038/ncomms14730. PMC 5380968. PMID 28361871.
  134. ^ "Warming Greenland ice sheet passes point of no return". Ohio State University. 13 August 2020. Retrieved 15 August 2020.
  135. ^ King, Michalea D.; Howat, Ian M.; Candela, Salvatore G.; Noh, Myoung J.; Jeong, Seongsu; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Negrete, Adelaide (13 August 2020). "Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat". Communications Earth & Environment. 1 (1): 1–7. Bibcode:2020ComEE...1....1K. doi:10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2. ISSN 2662-4435. Text and images are available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
  136. ^ Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B.; Colgan, William T.; Fettweis, Xavier; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Wehrlé, Adrien; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Bjørk, Anders A.; Fausto, Robert S. (29 August 2022). "Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise". Nature Climate Change. 12 (9): 808–813. Bibcode:2022NatCC..12..808B. doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2. S2CID 251912711.
  137. ^ Irvalı, Nil; Galaasen, Eirik V.; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Rosenthal, Yair; Born, Andreas; Kleiven, Helga (Kikki) F. (18 December 2019). "A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (1): 190–195. doi:10.1073/pnas.1911902116. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 6955352. PMID 31871153.
  138. ^ Christ, Andrew J.; Bierman, Paul R.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen P.; Corbett, Lee B.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Steig, Eric J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Tison, Jean-Louis; Blard, Pierre-Henri; Perdrial, Nicolas; Dethier, David P.; Lini, Andrea; Hidy, Alan J.; Caffee, Marc W.; Southon, John (30 March 2021). "A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. 118 (13): e2021442118. Bibcode:2021PNAS..11821442C. doi:10.1073/pnas.2021442118. PMC 8020747. PMID 33723012.
  139. ^ Robinson, Alexander; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey (11 March 2012). "Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet". Nature Climate Change. 2 (6): 429–432. Bibcode:2012NatCC...2..429R. doi:10.1038/nclimate1449.
  140. ^ Bochow, Nils; Poltronieri, Anna; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Rypdal, Martin; Boers, Niklas (18 October 2023). "Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet". Nature. 622 (7983): 528–536. Bibcode:2023Natur.622..528B. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9. PMC 10584691. PMID 37853149.
  141. ^ Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A.; Truffer, Martin; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J.; Hock, Regine; Khroulev, Constantine; Mottram, Ruth; Khan, S. Abbas (19 June 2019). "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium". Science Advances. 5 (6): 218–222. Bibcode:2019SciA....5.9396A. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav9396. PMC 6584365. PMID 31223652.
  142. ^ Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien; Hugonnet, Romain; et al. (5 January 2023). "Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters". Science. 379 (6627): 78–83. Bibcode:2023Sci...379...78R. doi:10.1126/science.abo1324. PMID 36603094. S2CID 255441012.
  143. ^ Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine (30 September 2015). "A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise". Frontiers in Earth Science. 3: 54. Bibcode:2015FrEaS...3...54H. doi:10.3389/feart.2015.00054. S2CID 3256381.
  144. ^ Radić, Valentina; Hock, Regine (9 January 2011). "Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise". Nature Geoscience. 4 (2): 91–94. Bibcode:2011NatGe...4...91R. doi:10.1038/ngeo1052.
  145. ^ Dyurgerov, Mark (2002). Glacier Mass Balance and Regime Measurements and Analysis, 1945-2003 (Report). doi:10.7265/N52N506F.
  146. ^ Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien; Hugonnet, Romain; Kochtitzky, William; Huss, Matthias; Berthier, Etienne; Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Compagno, Loris; Copland, Luke; Farinotti, Daniel; Menounos, Brian; McNabb, Robert W. (5 January 2023). "Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters". Science. 79 (6627): 78–83. Bibcode:2023Sci...379...78R. doi:10.1126/science.abo1324. PMID 36603094. S2CID 255441012.
  147. ^ Noerdlinger, Peter D.; Brower, Kay R. (July 2007). "The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level". Geophysical Journal International. 170 (1): 145–150. Bibcode:2007GeoJI.170..145N. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03472.x.
  148. ^ Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S. (15 November 2016). "Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations". Surveys in Geophysics. 38 (1): 131–152. doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9399-6. PMC 7115037. PMID 32269399.
  149. ^ Seo, Ki-Weon; Ryu, Dongryeol; Eom, Jooyoung; Jeon, Taewhan; Kim, Jae-Seung; Youm, Kookhyoun; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R. (15 June 2023). "Drift of Earth's Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010". Geophysical Research Letters. 50 (12): e2023GL103509. Bibcode:2023GeoRL..5003509S. doi:10.1029/2023GL103509. S2CID 259275991.
  150. ^ Sweet, William V.; Dusek, Greg; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Marra, John J. (February 2018). "Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold" (PDF). tidesandcurrents.NOAA.gov. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). p. 4. Archived (PDF) from the original on 15 October 2022. Fig. 2b
  151. ^ Wu, Tao (October 2021). "Quantifying coastal flood vulnerability for climate adaptation policy using principal component analysis". Ecological Indicators. 129: 108006. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108006.
  152. ^ Rosane, Olivia (October 30, 2019). "300 Million People Worldwide Could Suffer Yearly Flooding by 2050". Ecowatch. Retrieved 31 October 2019.
  153. ^ File:Projections of global mean sea level rise by Parris et al. (2012).png
  154. ^ "How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?". Skeptical Science.
  155. ^ McGranahan, Gordon; Balk, Deborah; Anderson, Bridget (29 June 2016). "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones". Environment and Urbanization. 19 (1): 17–37. doi:10.1177/0956247807076960. S2CID 154588933.
  156. ^ Sengupta, Somini (13 February 2020). "A Crisis Right Now: San Francisco and Manila Face Rising Seas". The New York Times. Photographer: Chang W. Lee. Retrieved 4 March 2020.
  157. ^ Storer, Rhi (2021-06-29). "Up to 410 million people at risk from sea level rises – study". The Guardian. Retrieved 2021-07-01.
  158. ^ Hooijer, A.; Vernimmen, R. (2021-06-29). "Global LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics". Nature Communications. 12 (1): 3592. Bibcode:2021NatCo..12.3592H. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23810-9. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 8242013. PMID 34188026.
  159. ^ Carrington, Damian (14 February 2023). "Rising seas threaten 'mass exodus on a biblical scale', UN chief warns". The Guardian. Retrieved 2023-02-25.
  160. ^ Xia, Wenyi; Lindsey, Robin (October 2021). "Port adaptation to climate change and capacity investments under uncertainty". Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. 152: 180–204. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.009. S2CID 239647501.
  161. ^ "Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities — Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate". Retrieved 2021-12-17.
  162. ^ a b Michaelson, Ruth (25 August 2018). "Houses claimed by the canal: life on Egypt's climate change frontline". The Guardian. Retrieved 30 August 2018.
  163. ^ a b Nagothu, Udaya Sekhar (2017-01-18). "Food security threatened by sea-level rise". Nibio. Retrieved 2018-10-21.
  164. ^ "Sea Level Rise". National Geographic. January 13, 2017. Archived from the original on January 17, 2017.
  165. ^ "Ghost forests are eerie evidence of rising seas". Grist.org. 18 September 2016. Retrieved 2017-05-17.
  166. ^ "How Rising Seas Are Killing Southern U.S. Woodlands - Yale E360". e360.yale.edu. Retrieved 2017-05-17.
  167. ^ Rivas, Marga L.; Rodríguez-Caballero, Emilio; Esteban, Nicole; Carpio, Antonio J.; Barrera-Vilarmau, Barbara; Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B.; Robertson, Katharine; Azanza, Julia; León, Yolanda; Ortega, Zaida (2023-04-20). "Uncertain future for global sea turtle populations in face of sea level rise". Scientific Reports. 13 (1): 5277. Bibcode:2023NatSR..13.5277R. doi:10.1038/s41598-023-31467-1. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 10119306. PMID 37081050.
  168. ^ Smith, Lauren (2016-06-15). "Extinct: Bramble Cay melomys". Australian Geographic. Retrieved 2016-06-17.
  169. ^ Hannam, Peter (2019-02-19). "'Our little brown rat': first climate change-caused mammal extinction". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2019-06-25.
  170. ^ Pontee, Nigel (November 2013). "Defining coastal squeeze: A discussion". Ocean & Coastal Management. 84: 204–207. Bibcode:2013OCM....84..204P. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.07.010.
  171. ^ "Mangroves - Northland Regional Council". www.nrc.govt.nz.
  172. ^ Kumara, M. P.; Jayatissa, L. P.; Krauss, K. W.; Phillips, D. H.; Huxham, M. (2010). "High mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise". Oecologia. 164 (2): 545–553. Bibcode:2010Oecol.164..545K. doi:10.1007/s00442-010-1705-2. JSTOR 40864709. PMID 20593198. S2CID 6929383.
  173. ^ Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen (April 2014). "How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level". New Phytologist. 202 (1): 19–34. doi:10.1111/nph.12605. PMID 24251960.
  174. ^ Soares, M.L.G. (2009). "A Conceptual Model for the Responses of Mangrove Forests to Sea Level Rise". Journal of Coastal Research: 267–271. JSTOR 25737579.
  175. ^ Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M. (November 2016). "Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise". Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 181: 93–99. Bibcode:2016ECSS..181...93C. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.018.
  176. ^ Spalding, M.; McIvor, A.; Tonneijck, F.H.; Tol, S.; van Eijk, P. (2014). "Mangroves for coastal defence. Guidelines for coastal managers & policy makers" (PDF). Wetlands International and The Nature Conservancy.
  177. ^ Weston, Nathaniel B. (16 July 2013). "Declining Sediments and Rising Seas: an Unfortunate Convergence for Tidal Wetlands". Estuaries and Coasts. 37 (1): 1–23. doi:10.1007/s12237-013-9654-8. S2CID 128615335.
  178. ^ Wong, Poh Poh; Losado, I.J.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Hinkel, Jochen (2014). "Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas" (PDF). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-11-23. Retrieved 2018-10-07.
  179. ^ McLeman, Robert (2018). "Migration and displacement risks due to mean sea-level rise". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 74 (3): 148–154. Bibcode:2018BuAtS..74c.148M. doi:10.1080/00963402.2018.1461951. ISSN 0096-3402. S2CID 150179939.
  180. ^ "Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Populations and Agriculture". www.fao.org. Archived from the original on 2020-04-18. Retrieved 2018-10-21.
  181. ^ a b De Lellis, Pietro; Marín, Manuel Ruiz; Porfiri, Maurizio (29 March 2021). "Modeling Human Migration Under Environmental Change: A Case Study of the Effect of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh". Earth's Future. 9 (4): e2020EF001931. Bibcode:2021EaFut...901931D. doi:10.1029/2020EF001931. hdl:10317/13078. S2CID 233626963.
  182. ^ "Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 | Dutch Water Sector". www.dutchwatersector.com (in Dutch). Retrieved 2020-12-11.
  183. ^ "Bangladesh Delta Plan (BDP) 2100" (PDF).
  184. ^ "Delta Plan falls behind targets at the onset". The Business Standard. September 5, 2020.
  185. ^ "Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Formulation project".
  186. ^ Englander, John (3 May 2019). "As seas rise, Indonesia is moving its capital city. Other cities should take note". The Washington Post. Retrieved 31 August 2019.
  187. ^ Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Fukuda, Yoichi; Pohan, Yusuf E.; Deguchi, T. (11 June 2011). "Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development". Natural Hazards. 59 (3): 1753–1771. Bibcode:2011NatHa..59.1753A. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9866-9. S2CID 129557182.
  188. ^ Englander, John (May 3, 2019). "As seas rise, Indonesia is moving its capital city. Other cities should take note". The Washington Post. Retrieved 5 May 2019.
  189. ^ Rosane, Olivia (May 3, 2019). "Indonesia Will Move its Capital from Fast-Sinking Jakarta". Ecowatch. Retrieved 5 May 2019.
  190. ^ Erkens, G.; Bucx, T.; Dam, R.; de Lange, G.; Lambert, J. (2015-11-12). "Sinking coastal cities". Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. 372: 189–198. Bibcode:2015PIAHS.372..189E. doi:10.5194/piahs-372-189-2015. ISSN 2199-899X.
  191. ^ Lawrence, J., B. Mackey, F. Chiew, M.J. Costello, K. Hennessy, N. Lansbury, U.B. Nidumolu, G. Pecl, L. Rickards, N. Tapper, A. Woodward, and A. Wreford, 2022: Chapter 11: Australasia. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1581–1688, |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.013
  192. ^ Castellanos, E., M.F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga, N. Chacón, N. Cuvi, C. Huggel, L. Miranda, M. Moncassim Vale, J.P. Ometto, P.L. Peri, J.C. Postigo, L. Ramajo, L. Roco, and M. Rusticucci, 2022: Chapter 12: Central and South America. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1689–1816 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.014
  193. ^ Ballesteros, Caridad; Jiménez, José A.; Valdemoro, Herminia I.; Bosom, Eva (7 September 2017). "Erosion consequences on beach functions along the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain)". Natural Hazards. 90: 173–195. doi:10.1007/s11069-017-3038-5. S2CID 135328414.
  194. ^ Ietto, Fabio; Cantasano, Nicola; Pellicone, Gaetano (11 April 2018). "A New Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment Indicator: Application to the Calabria Tyrrhenian Littoral (Southern Italy)". Environmental Processes. 5 (2): 201–223. Bibcode:2018EProc...5..201I. doi:10.1007/s40710-018-0295-6. S2CID 134889581.
  195. ^ Ferreira, A. M.; Coelho, C.; Narra, P. (13 October 2020). "Coastal erosion risk assessment to discuss mitigation strategies: Barra-Vagueira, Portugal". Natural Hazards. 105: 1069–1107. doi:10.1007/s11069-020-04349-2. S2CID 222318289.
  196. ^ Rivero, Ofelia Yocasta; Margheritini, Lucia; Frigaard, Peter (4 February 2021). "Accumulated effects of chronic, acute and man-induced erosion in Nørlev strand on the Danish west coast". Journal of Coastal Conservation. 25 (1): 24. Bibcode:2021JCC....25...24R. doi:10.1007/s11852-021-00812-9. S2CID 231794192.
  197. ^ Tierolf, Lars; Haer, Toon Haer; Wouter Botzen, W. J.; de Bruijn, Jens A.; Ton, Marijn J.; Reimann, Lena; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. (13 March 2023). "A coupled agent-based model for France for simulating adaptation and migration decisions under future coastal flood risk". Scientific Reports. 13 (1): 4176. Bibcode:2023NatSR..13.4176T. doi:10.1038/s41598-023-31351-y. PMC 10011601. PMID 36914726.
  198. ^ Calma, Justine (November 14, 2019). "Venice's historic flooding blamed on human failure and climate change". The Verge. Retrieved 17 November 2019.
  199. ^ Shepherd, Marshall (16 November 2019). "Venice Flooding Reveals A Real Hoax About Climate Change - Framing It As "Either/Or"". Forbes. Retrieved 17 November 2019.
  200. ^ a b c van der Hurk, Bart; Bisaro, Alexander; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Nicholls, Robert J.; Rehdanz, Katrin; Stuparu, Dana (28 January 2022). "Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales". Climate Risk Management. 35: 100403. Bibcode:2022CliRM..3500403V. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403. S2CID 246354121.
  201. ^ Howard, Tom; Palmer, Matthew D; Bricheno, Lucy M (18 September 2019). "Contributions to 21st century projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK". Environmental Research Communications. 1 (9): 095002. Bibcode:2019ERCom...1i5002H. doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab42d7. S2CID 203120550.
  202. ^ Kimmelman, Michael; Haner, Josh (2017-06-15). "The Dutch Have Solutions to Rising Seas. The World Is Watching". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-02-02.
  203. ^ "Dutch draw up drastic measures to defend coast against rising seas". The New York Times. 3 September 2008.
  204. ^ "Rising Sea Levels Threaten Netherlands". National Post. Toronto. Agence France-Presse. September 4, 2008. p. AL12. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
  205. ^ "Florida Coastal Flooding Maps: Residents Deny Predicted Risks to Their Property". EcoWatch. 2020-02-10. Retrieved 2021-01-31.
  206. ^ Sweet & Park (2015). "Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future". Geophysical Research Letters. 42 (22): 9846–9852. Bibcode:2015GeoRL..42.9846M. doi:10.1002/2015GL066072. S2CID 19624347.
  207. ^ "High Tide Flooding". NOAA. Retrieved 10 July 2023.
  208. ^ "Climate Change, Sea Level Rise Spurring Beach Erosion". Climate Central. 2012.
  209. ^ Carpenter, Adam T. (2020-05-04). "Public priorities on locally-driven sea level rise planning on the East Coast of the United States". PeerJ. 8: e9044. doi:10.7717/peerj.9044. ISSN 2167-8359. PMC 7204830. PMID 32411525.
  210. ^ Jasechko, Scott J.; Perrone, Debra; Seybold, Hansjörg; Fan, Ying; Kirchner, James W. (26 June 2020). "Groundwater level observations in 250,000 coastal US wells reveal scope of potential seawater intrusion". Nature Communications. 11 (1): 3229. Bibcode:2020NatCo..11.3229J. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17038-2. PMC 7319989. PMID 32591535.
  211. ^ a b c Hicke, J.A., S. Lucatello, L.D., Mortsch, J. Dawson, M. Domínguez Aguilar, C.A.F. Enquist, E.A. Gilmore, D.S. Gutzler, S. Harper, K. Holsman, E.B. Jewett, T.A. Kohler, and KA. Miller, 2022: Chapter 14: North America. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1929–2042
  212. ^ Strauss, Benjamin H.; Orton, Philip M.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Gilford, Daniel M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Kulp, Scott; Massey, Chris; Moel, Hans de; Vinogradov, Sergey (18 May 2021). "Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change". Nature Communications. 12 (1): 2720. Bibcode:2021NatCo..12.2720S. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22838-1. PMC 8131618. PMID 34006886. S2CID 234783225.
  213. ^ Seabrook, Victoria (19 May 2021). "Climate change to blame for $8 billion of Hurricane Sandy losses, study finds". Nature Communications. Sky News. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  214. ^ "U.S Coastline to See Up to a Foot of Sea Level by 2050". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 15 February 2022. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
  215. ^ "More Damaging Flooding, 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report". National Ocean Service, NOAA. 2022. Retrieved 2022-03-18.
  216. ^ Gornitz, Vivien (2002). "Impact of Sea Level Rise in the New York City Metropolitan Area" (PDF). Global and Planetary Change. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-09-26. Retrieved 2020-08-09.
  217. ^ "Many Low-Lying Atoll Islands Will Be Uninhabitable by Mid-21st Century | U.S. Geological Survey". www.usgs.gov. Retrieved 2021-12-17.
  218. ^ Zhu, Bozhong; Bai, Yan; He, Xianqiang; Chen, Xiaoyan; Li, Teng; Gong, Fang (2021-09-18). "Long-Term Changes in the Land–Ocean Ecological Environment in Small Island Countries in the South Pacific: A Fiji Vision". Remote Sensing. 13 (18): 3740. Bibcode:2021RemS...13.3740Z. doi:10.3390/rs13183740. ISSN 2072-4292.
  219. ^ Sly, Peter D; Vilcins, Dwan (November 2021). "Climate impacts on air quality and child health and wellbeing: Implications for Oceania". Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health. 57 (11): 1805–1810. doi:10.1111/jpc.15650. ISSN 1034-4810. PMID 34792251. S2CID 244271480.
  220. ^ Megan Angelo (1 May 2009). "Honey, I Sunk the Maldives: Environmental changes could wipe out some of the world's most well-known travel destinations". Archived from the original on 17 July 2012. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  221. ^ Kristina Stefanova (19 April 2009). "Climate refugees in Pacific flee rising sea". The Washington Times.
  222. ^ Klein, Alice. "Five Pacific islands vanish from sight as sea levels rise". New Scientist. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  223. ^ Simon Albert; Javier X Leon; Alistair R Grinham; John A Church; Badin R Gibbes; Colin D Woodroffe (1 May 2016). "Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (5): 054011. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011. ISSN 1748-9326. Wikidata Q29028186.
  224. ^ Nurse, Leonard A.; McLean, Roger (2014). "29: Small Islands" (PDF). In Barros, VR; Field (eds.). AR5 WGII. Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-04-30. Retrieved 2018-09-02.
  225. ^ a b c Grecequet, Martina; Noble, Ian; Hellmann, Jessica (2017-11-16). "Many small island nations can adapt to climate change with global support". The Conversation. Retrieved 2019-02-02.
  226. ^ Nations, United. "Small Islands, Rising Seas". United Nations. Retrieved 2021-12-17.
  227. ^ Caramel, Laurence (July 1, 2014). "Besieged by the rising tides of climate change, Kiribati buys land in Fiji". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
  228. ^ Long, Maebh (2018). "Vanua in the Anthropocene: Relationality and Sea Level Rise in Fiji". Symplokē. 26 (1–2): 51–70. doi:10.5250/symploke.26.1-2.0051. S2CID 150286287.
  229. ^ "Adaptation to Sea Level Rise". UN Environment. 2018-01-11. Retrieved 2019-02-02.
  230. ^ Thomas, Adelle; Baptiste, April; Martyr-Koller, Rosanne; Pringle, Patrick; Rhiney, Kevon (2020-10-17). "Climate Change and Small Island Developing States". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 45 (1): 1–27. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083355. ISSN 1543-5938.
  231. ^ Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D.Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, M.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen, 2022: Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems and their Services (Chapter 3). In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. - Cross-Chapter Box SLR: Sea Level Rise
  232. ^ Dasgupta, Susmita; Wheeler, David; Bandyopadhyay, Sunando; Ghosh, Santadas; Roy, Utpal (February 2022). "Coastal dilemma: Climate change, public assistance and population displacement". World Development. 150: 105707. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105707. ISSN 0305-750X. S2CID 244585347.
  233. ^ "Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise". US EPA, Climate Change Adaptation Resource Center (ARC-X). 2 May 2016.
  234. ^ a b Fletcher, Cameron (2013). "Costs and coasts: an empirical assessment of physical and institutional climate adaptation pathways". Apo.
  235. ^ Sovacool, Benjamin K. (2011). "Hard and soft paths for climate change adaptation" (PDF). Climate Policy. 11 (4): 1177–1183. Bibcode:2011CliPo..11.1177S. doi:10.1080/14693062.2011.579315. S2CID 153384574. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2020-07-10. Retrieved 2018-09-02.
  236. ^ "Coastal cities face rising risk of flood losses, study says". Phys.org. 18 August 2013. Retrieved 17 April 2023.
  237. ^ Hallegatte, Stephane; Green, Colin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Corfee-Morlot, Jan (18 August 2013). "Future flood losses in major coastal cities". Nature Climate Change. 3 (9): 802–806. Bibcode:2013NatCC...3..802H. doi:10.1038/nclimate1979.
  238. ^ Bachner, Gabriel; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen (29 September 2022). "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration". Nature Communications. 13 (1): 5705. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.5705B. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33043-z. PMC 9522673. PMID 36175422.
  239. ^ Hirschfeld, Daniella; Behar, David; Nicholls, Robert J.; Cahill, Niamh; James, Thomas; Horton, Benjamin P.; Portman, Michelle E.; Bell, Rob; Campo, Matthew; Esteban, Miguel; Goble, Bronwyn; Rahman, Munsur; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed; Aunger, Monique; Babitsky, Orly; Beal, Anders; Boyle, Ray; Fang, Jiayi; Gohar, Amir; Hanson, Susan; Karamesines, Saul; Kim, M. J.; Lohmann, Hilary; McInnes, Kathy; Mimura, Nobuo; Ramsay, Doug; Wenger, Landis; Yokoki, Hiromune (3 April 2023). "Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation". Communications Earth & Environment. 4 (1): 102. Bibcode:2023ComEE...4..102H. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x. Text and images are available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
  240. ^ Garner, Andra J.; Sosa, Sarah E.; Tan, Fangyi; Tan, Christabel Wan Jie; Garner, Gregory G.; Horton, Benjamin P. (23 January 2023). "Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea-Level Rise Assessments From the United States". Earth's Future. 11 (2): e2022EF003187. Bibcode:2023EaFut..1103187G. doi:10.1029/2022EF003187. S2CID 256227421.

External links[edit]