Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008
|Democratic Primary Results (popular vote). Purple denotes an Obama win and gold a Clinton win.|
The 2008 Democratic presidential primaries were the process by which the Democratic Party chose its nominee for President of the United States in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won and became the party's nominee. However, due to a close race between Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, the contest remained competitive for longer than expected, and neither candidate received enough delegates from state primary races and caucuses to achieve a majority without so-called superdelegate votes.
The presidential primaries actually consisted of both primary elections and caucuses, depending upon what the individual state chose. The goal of the process was to elect the majority of the 4,233 delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, which was held from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado. To secure the nomination, a candidate needed to receive at least 2,117 votes at the convention—or a simple majority of the 4,233 delegate votes. This total included half-votes from American Samoa, Guam, the United States Virgin Islands, and Democrats Abroad, as well as "superdelegates", party leaders and elected officials who were not chosen through a primary or caucus. The race was further complicated by a controversy over the scheduling of the Michigan and Florida state primaries, which had been scheduled earlier than party rules permitted, affecting the number of delegates that those states sent to the national convention.
Although Obama led Clinton in delegates won through state contests, Clinton claimed that she had the popular vote lead as she had more actual votes from the state contests. However, this calculation could not include many states that had held caucuses, which Obama had dominated, and it did include Michigan and Florida, which neither Clinton nor Obama contested due to the Democratic National Committee's penalization of those states for violating party rules.
Obama received enough superdelegate endorsements on June 3 to claim that he had secured the simple majority of delegates necessary to win the nomination, and Clinton conceded the nomination four days later. Obama was nominated on the first ballot, at the August convention. He went on to win the general election, and became the 44th President of the United States on January 20, 2009. Clinton went on to serve as Obama's Secretary of State for his first term.
- 1 Candidates and results
- 2 Delegate system
- 3 Chronicle
- 4 Voter turnout
- 5 See also
- 6 Notes and references
- 7 External links
Candidates and results
Notes for the following table:
- Delegate counts:
- The pledged delegate estimates come from the sum of the Current estimate columns for the states listed in the Chronicle section later in this article
- The source for superdelegate estimates is the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog. Superdelegate endorsements were frozen on June 7, the date of Clinton's concession speech.
|Candidate||Most recent office held
at the end of the primaries
Surpassed by estimation
the 2,208 delegate votes
needed for a majority,
June 3, 2008.
June 7, 2008.
June 7, 2008.
|Former U.S. Senator
January 30, 2008.
May 14, 2008.
January 3, 2008.
June 22, 2008.
Named VP candidate,
August 23, 2008.
January 3, 2008.
February 26, 2008.
|Former U.S. Senator,
|0||0||0||Endorsed Jesse Johnson,
March 13, 2008.
Joined Libertarian Party,
March 25, 2008.
January 23, 2008.
August 26, 2008.
January 10, 2008.
March 21, 2008.
Delegates are the people who decided the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. Delegates from fifty US states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico had a single vote each, while delegates from American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, Guam and Democrats Abroad, as well as the states of Florida and Michigan, which contravened the schedule, had half a vote each. Thus, the total number of delegates was slightly higher than the total number of available delegate votes (4,049). [now updated to 4,233 with FL-MI delegations]
In the modern presidential primary system, candidates for the nomination campaign in a series of primary elections and caucus events. For the Democratic Party, the results from these primaries and caucuses determine the number of pledged delegates committed to vote for each candidate at the Democratic National Convention, intended to reflect the will of the voters. These delegates are not legally bound to vote for the candidate they represent, but candidates may remove delegates whom they feel may be disloyal, and delegates generally vote as pledged. Under the party's Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, delegatese were allocated to each of the fifty U.S. states according to two main criteria: the proportion of votes each state had given to the Democratic candidate in the previous three presidential elections, and the percentage of votes each state had in the United States Electoral College. In addition, fixed numbers of delegates were allocated to the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Democrats Abroad. In 2008, a total of 3,253 pledged delegate votes will be awarded through the primaries and caucuses.
Superdelegate votes are given equal weight to the votes of pledged delegates. Superdelegates are members of the United States House of Representatives and Senate, state and territorial governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, distinguished party leaders, and add-on delegates selected by the state parties. They represented almost 20 percent of the total 4,233 delegates.
The number and composition of superdelegates had the potential to change right up to the start of the Democratic National Convention. The total number of superdelegate votes at the start of the primary season in October 2007 stood at 850. Various events such as deaths, elections, and disqualifications may alter the final number of superdelegates voting in the primary.
While officially uncommitted until the convention, the superdelegates may publicly endorse or commit to a candidate at any time. The presidential candidates compete heavily for these commitments. News organizations survey the superdelegates periodically throughout the election season and try to calculate how many have committed to each of the candidates. The media often include these superdelegate estimates in their reporting on the race, leading to differing delegate counts from various news sources.
Delegate selection rules
Under the Democratic Party's Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, delegates are awarded by proportional representation, with a minimum 15 percent threshold required to receive delegates. Each state party is required to publish its own state level delegate selection plan, indicating how the state will select delegates at the congressional and statewide level, how the delegation will implement the party's affirmative action policy, and how the delegation will ensure an equal balance between women and men. Those plans were adopted at state conventions and forwarded to the national party in mid-2007.
In most state caucuses, the viability threshold must be met at each level in the process, from the precinct level upwards. This puts enormous pressure on the remaining candidates to gain the support of voters whose chosen candidates fall below the 15 percent mark. The focus on viability is designed to weed out small, divisive factions from gaining delegates to disrupt the national convention. However, this can result in candidates gaining viability in some precincts but not in others, and a complicated "caucus math" is required to allocate delegates to the county and state conventions for each precinct. In the primaries, the viability threshold is set based on statewide and congressional district votes. At-large and PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates are allocated based on statewide votes, while district-level delegates are allocated by district votes.
Reporting delegate totals
There is no easy answer to the question, What's the current count? Each of the major news organizations keeps a count of delegate votes, while the campaigns keep their own numbers. Rarely do these totals coincide. Some online sources use an aggregate of sources, leading to even more confusion in delegate vote totals. The actual result may not be known until the votes are cast at the Democratic National Convention.
There are several reasons for this discrepancy. First, some news sources include only pledged delegates in their total count, while others include superdelegates. Second, estimates of superdelegate votes are unreliable and are subject to change. Third, pledged delegates in many states are selected at county or state conventions late in the process; thus, the initial primary and caucus results provide only a projection of pledged delegates, highlighted by the discrepancies with the Iowa county convention results. Fourth, in the days after an election, results in individual precincts may be delayed, and news organizations may project the winners of those precincts based on statistical analysis or may wait for confirmed results. The Democratic nominating process is a complex system that has evolved over time, and in close races, it can be difficult under the current system to know who is leading in the delegate count.
This article uses pledged delegate estimates from the respective Wikipedia articles of each state primary or caucus. Reliable sources appropriate to each state's individual process are found in those articles. The Not Yet Assigned columns in the tables below reflect pledged delegates that these sources have not yet allocated to any candidates. For superdelegate vote estimates, this article uses the Democratic Convention Watch blog. A periodically updated article on the blog also provides a comparison of the delegate totals from several different sources (CBS, CNN, NBC, Associated Press, and The Green Papers).
Notes for the tables in this section:
- Votes to the Convention column:
- The source for delegation sizes is the Democratic National Committee's official Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Specific sources are present for Florida and Michigan. Very recent changes not already in the official source are indicated by the footnotes.
- Pledged Delegate Votes Estimate column:
- The source is each state's primary or caucus article. Click on the Specific Election (link) column to see the sources used in those articles.
- The candidate with the highest pledged delegate vote is highlighted. In some cases, this may be different from the winner of the popular vote.
The race for the 2008 presidential nomination began in earnest after the 2006 midterm elections. Between November 2006 and February 2007, eight major candidates opened their campaigns-Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, and Tom Vilsack-joining Mike Gravel, who had announced his candidacy in April 2006. Potential candidates John Kerry, Al Gore, Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh, Tom Daschle, Wesley Clark, Mark Warner, and Al Sharpton reportedly considered running but ultimately declined to seek the nomination. Vilsack dropped out in February 2007.
In the first three months of 2007, Clinton and Obama raised more than $20 million each and Edwards raised more than $12 million. The three candidates quickly became the frontrunners for the nomination, a status they held all the way through the end of 2007.
On November 21, Obama announced that Oprah Winfrey would be campaigning for him in the early primary states, setting off speculation that, although celebrity endorsements typically have little effect on voter opinions, Winfrey's participation would supply Obama with a large, receptive audience. As word spread that Oprah's first appearance would be in Iowa, polls released in early December revealed Obama taking the lead in that decisive state. Then, on December 8, Oprah kicked-off a three-state tour supporting Obama's campaign, where she drew record-setting crowds in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and was described as "more cogent, more effective, more convincing" than anyone on the campaign trail. The Oprah-Obama tour dominated political news headlines and cast doubts over Clinton's ability to recover her recently lost lead in Iowa caucus polls. A poll released less than two weeks after Winfrey campaigned found Obama achieving more popularity in Iowa than ever before recorded. Two economists would later estimate that Winfrey's endorsement added more than one million votes to Obama's total in the Democratic primaries, and that without it, Clinton would have received more votes.
At the end of the year, December 31, Clinton held a substantial lead in superdelegates, and she was leading in the national polls with 42% of likely voters, over Obama, 23%, and Edwards, 16%. However, Edwards and Obama remained close in state polls for the early contests, including the Iowa caucuses, where the final polling average had Obama leading narrowly, 31%, over Clinton, 30%, Edwards, 26%, Biden, 5%, and Richardson, 5%.
Following tradition, the 2008 primary calendar began with the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. The Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary were the third and fourth contests sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. Under the national committee's rules, no state was allowed to hold primaries or caucuses before February 5 with the exceptions of these four states. Michigan and Florida also held early primaries, but as the contests were unsanctioned, the results were not recognized by the national committee until a political compromise was reached four months later.
The following table shows the pledged delegate votes awarded in the first four contests recognized by the DNC.
|Details||Delegate votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|January 3||Iowa caucuses||45||12||57||16||15||14||||28||14||3|
|January 8||New Hampshire primary||22||8||30||9||9||4||||13||9||0|
|January 19||Nevada caucuses||25||9||34||13||12||0||||14||11||0|
|January 26||South Carolina primary||45||9||54||25||12||8||||33||12||0|
Obama won the Iowa caucuses with 38% of the vote, over Edwards, 30%, and Clinton, 29%. His victory brought him to national prominence as many voters tuned into the race for the first time. In a speech that evening, he defined change as the primary theme of his campaign and said, "On this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do." The delegate count was virtually tied, but Clinton's surprising third-place finish in the popular vote damaged her image as the "inevitable" nominee. However, she remained upbeat, saying "This race begins tonight and ends when Democrats throughout America have their say. Our campaign was built for a marathon." The following day, reports described "panic" among some Clinton donors, and rumors of a staff shake-up began to circulate. Biden and Dodd withdrew from the race.
After Obama's upset win in Iowa, it appeared to many political observers that he would ride a wave of momentum through the New Hampshire primaries and then onward to win the Democratic nomination. His campaign promise for the return of Original New York Seltzer and Crystal Pepsi was pointed to as a winning campaign strategy. Eulogies were published on the Clinton campaign, as Obama surged to a roughly 10-point lead in the New Hampshire polls. However, the race turned quickly in the days before the primary, and the polls were slow to register a reversal toward Clinton. At the Saint Anselm College New Hampshire debate on January 5, 2008, Edwards sided with Obama against Clinton. In one noted exchange, Edwards said that Clinton could not bring about change, while he and Obama could: "Any time you speak out powerfully for change, the forces for status quo attack." Clinton passionately retorted, "Making change is not about what you believe; it's not about a speech you make. It's about working hard. I'm not just running on a promise for change. I'm running on 35 years of change. What we need is somebody who can deliver change. We don't need to be raising false hopes." It came to be seen as the defining statement for her candidacy. The morning before the primary, Clinton became "visibly emotional" in response to a friendly question from a voter. Video of the moment was replayed on cable news television throughout the day, accompanied by pundit commentary that ranged from sympathetic to callous in tone. Voters rallied to Clinton's defense, and she won a surprising three-percent victory over Obama in the popular vote. They tied in the delegate count. Richardson withdrew from the race on January 10.
Momentum shifted in Clinton's favor, and she won the popular vote in the Nevada caucuses eleven days later, despite Obama's endorsement from the influential Culinary Workers Union. However, Obama ran strongly in rural areas throughout the state and beat Clinton in the delegate count. Edwards's support collapsed in Nevada, as voters coalesced around the two apparent frontrunners. Dennis Kucinich withdrew from the race. In the following week, issues of race came to the fore as campaigning began for the South Carolina primary, the first to feature a large proportion of African Americans in the Democratic electorate. Behind in the state polls, Hillary Clinton left to campaign in some Super Tuesday states, while her husband, former president Bill Clinton, stayed in South Carolina and engaged in a series of exchanges with Obama. CBS News reported, "By injecting himself into the Democratic primary campaign with a series of inflammatory and negative statements, Bill Clinton may have helped his wife's presidential hopes in the long term but at the cost of his reputation with a group of voters [African Americans] that have long been one of his strongest bases of political support." Obama won by a more than two-to-one margin over Clinton, gaining 55% of the vote to her 27% and Edwards's 18%. The day of the primary, Bill Clinton compared Obama's expected win to Jesse Jackson's victory in the 1988 South Carolina primary. His comments were widely criticized as an apparent attempt to dismiss the primary results and marginalize Obama by implying that he was "the black candidate." The momentum generated by Obama's larger-than-expected win in South Carolina was deflated somewhat by the win Clinton claimed in the nullified Florida primary the following week. John Edwards suspended his candidacy on January 30. He did not immediately endorse either Clinton or Obama, but said they both had pledged to carry forward his central campaign theme of ending poverty in America. Neither Clinton nor Obama had a clear advantage heading into the February 5 Super Tuesday primaries, with 23 states and territories and 1,681 delegates at stake and more media attention than any primary election day in American history.
In August 2006, the Democratic National Committee adopted a proposal by its Rules and Bylaws Committee stating that only the four states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina would be permitted to hold primaries or caucuses before February 5, 2008. In May 2007, the Florida Legislature passed a bill that moved the date of the state's primary to January 29, 2008, setting up a confrontation with the DNC. In response, the DNC ruled that Florida's 185 pledged delegates and 26 superdelegates would not be seated at the Democratic National Convention, or, if seated, would not be able to vote. In October 2007, Democrats from Florida's congressional delegation filed a federal lawsuit against the DNC to force a recognition of its delegates, but the suit was unsuccessful. The presidential candidates promised not to campaign in Florida.
Meanwhile, Michigan moved its primary to January 15, 2008, also in violation of party rules. In October 2007, Obama, Richardson, Biden, and Edwards withdrew their names from the Michigan primary ballot, under pressure from the DNC and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Kucinich unsuccessfully sought to remove his name from the ballot, whereas Clinton and Dodd opted to remain on the ballot. In December 2007, the DNC ruled that Michigan's 128 pledged delegates and 29 superdelegates would not count in the nominating contest unless it were held on a later date. The Michigan Democratic party responded with a press release noting that the primary would proceed with Clinton, Dodd, Gravel, and Kucinich on the ballot. Supporters of Biden, Edwards, Richardson, and Obama were urged to vote "uncommitted" instead of writing in their candidates' names because write-in votes for those candidates would not be counted.
None of the top candidates campaigned in Florida or Michigan. The events were described in the media as "beauty contests," and voter turnout in both states was relatively low when compared with record-high turnout in other states. Nevertheless, Clinton claimed wins in Florida and Michigan, and she flew to Fort Lauderdale on the night of the Florida election to thank supporters for what she called a "tremendous victory."
As the primaries continued, various groups tried to negotiate a resolution to the standoff between the DNC and the state parties. The Clinton campaign advocated first for the results to stand and then for a new round of voting to take place in Michigan and Florida, while the Obama campaign deferred the matter to the DNC, while expressing a wish that the delegations be seated in some form. On all sides, Democrats worried that a failure to resolve the problem could lead to a rules or credential fight at the convention and low Democratic turnout in the general election in November.
On May 31, 2008, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted unanimously (27-0) to restore half-votes to all the Florida delegates, including superdelegates. The Michigan delegates were also given half-votes, with 69 delegates pledged to Hillary Clinton and 59 to Barack Obama; this proposed change passing by 19-8.
|Details||Restored votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|Awarded by the DNC||Change
|January 15||Michigan primary||128||29 ||157||59||69||0||59||69||0|
|January 29||Florida primary||185||26||211||67||105||13||||67||105||13|
Traditionally, the Tuesday on which the greatest number of states hold primary elections is known as Super Tuesday. In 2007, many states moved their primaries or caucuses early in the calendar to have greater influence over the race. As February 5 was the earliest date allowed by the Democratic National Committee, 23 states and territories moved their elections to that date. This year's Super Tuesday became the date of the nation's first quasi-national primary. It was dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday" or "Tsunami Tuesday," among other names.
After Obama's win in South Carolina on January 26, he received high-profile endorsements from Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former President John F. Kennedy, as well as Senator Ted Kennedy, the former President's brother. Ted Kennedy's endorsement was considered "the biggest Democratic endorsement Obama could possibly get short of Bill Clinton or Al Gore." On January 31, Obama and Clinton met for the first time in a one-on-one debate, and they struck a friendly tone, seeking to put the racially charged comments of the previous week behind them. Obama surged nationally in the polls and held campaign rallies that drew audiences of more than 15,000 people in several states.
A total of 1,681 pledged delegate votes were at stake in the states that voted on February 5. The following table shows the pledged delegate votes awarded in the Super Tuesday states.
|Details||Delegate votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|American Samoa caucuses||3||6||9||1||2||1||2|
|New Jersey primary||107||20||127||48||59||48||59|
|New Mexico primary||26||12||38||12||14||12||14|
|New York primary||232||49||281||93||139||93||139|
|North Dakota caucuses||13||8||21||8||5||8||5|
On election night, both Obama and Clinton claimed victories. In the popular vote, Obama won 13 states and territories to Clinton's 10, including states like Idaho and Georgia where he won by very wide margins. His wins in Connecticut and Missouri were considered upsets. However, Clinton won the large electoral prizes of California and Massachusetts, where some analysts had expected the Kennedy endorsements might carry Obama to victory. Although Obama gained significant ground from where he was polling in mid-January, it was not enough to close the gap in those states. In exit polls, Obama gained the overwhelming support of African American voters, and he strengthened his base among college-educated voters and voters younger than 45. Clinton found significant support among white women, Latinos, and voters over the age of 65. Obama ran strongest in caucus states, Rocky Mountain states, the South and the Midwest. Clinton ran strongest in the Northeast, the Southwest, and the states adjacent to Arkansas, where she served as first lady. When the delegate counting was finished, Obama won an estimated 847 pledged delegates to Clinton's 834. Early in the primary season, many observers had predicted that the nomination would be over after Super Tuesday, but the general verdict on election night was that the candidates had drawn to a virtual tie and that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination would not likely be settled for a month, at least.
In the following week, it became clear that a tie on Super Tuesday left Obama better positioned for the upcoming contests in February, where the demographics of several large states seemed to favor him. The day after Super Tuesday, February 6, Clinton announced that she had personally lent her campaign $5 million in January. The news came as a surprise and set off another round of news stories about Clinton donors and supporters concerned about the campaign's strategy. It was particularly striking in contrast to Obama's announcement that he had raised a record-high $32 million in January, tapping 170,000 new contributors. It became clear that Obama's financial advantage had allowed him to organize and compete in a broader set of states on Super Tuesday, an advantage likely to continue in the coming weeks and months. Clinton's supporters responded by raising $6 million online in 36 hours, but Obama's campaign upped the ante, announcing their own total of $7.5 million in 36 hours and starting a new goal of reaching 500,000 new contributors in 2008 by the end of February.
|Details||Delegate votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|February 9||Louisiana primary||56||11||67||33||23||33||23|
|U.S. Virgin Islands primary||3||6||9||3||0||3||0|
|February 10||Maine caucuses||24||8||32||15||9||15||9|
|February 5–12||Democrats Abroad primary||7||4||11||4½||2½||4½||2½|
|February 12||D.C. primary||15||24||39||12||3||||13||2|
|February 19||Hawaii caucuses||20||9||29||14||6||14||6|
As expected, Obama swept the three nominating events on February 9, which were thought to favor him based on the results in similar states that had voted previously. He then scored a convincing win in Maine, where Clinton had hoped to hold her ground. The same day, Clinton's campaign announced the resignation of campaign advisor Patti Solis Doyle. Obama's momentum carried through the following week, as he scored large delegate gains in the Potomac Primaries, taking the lead in the nationwide popular vote, even under the projection most favorable to Clinton, with Florida and Michigan included. NBC News declared him "Mr. Frontrunner" on February 13. Clinton attempted a comeback win in the demographically more favorable state of Wisconsin, but Obama won again by a larger margin than expected. In a span of 11 days, he swept 11 contests and extended his pledged delegate lead by 120. At the end of the month, Obama had 1,192 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,035. He also began to close the gap in superdelegates, although Clinton still led among superdelegates, 240 to 191. Clinton's campaign tried to downplay the results of the February contests, and the candidate refused to acknowledge the losses in her speeches on election nights. Her advisers acknowledged that she would need big wins in the upcoming states to turn the race around.
With four states and 370 delegates at stake, March 4 was dubbed "Mini-Super Tuesday" or "Super Tuesday 2.0". Just as Obama had been favored in the mid-February states, Clinton was favored in Ohio, with its high proportion of working-class white voters and older voters, and Texas, with its high proportion of Latino voters. Exit polls in previous states showed that all three groups were a part of Clinton's base. In mid-February, Clinton held a 10-point lead in Texas and a 20-point lead in Ohio in RealClearPolitics polling averages. The Clinton campaign set its sights on the Ohio-Texas "firewall," counting on a clear March 4 win to change the narrative and turn around her campaign for the nomination. Meanwhile, Obama hoped to score a win in one or both states that might be enough to knock Clinton out of the race. By February 25, they were in a statistical dead heat in Texas, according to a CNN poll.
In the last week of February, Clinton's campaign seemed to be back on its feet. A Saturday Night Live sketch mocked the media for its supposedly biased coverage in favor of Obama, and Clinton used the sketch to argue that Obama had not received proper scrutiny. The media responded by taking a more critical look at Obama's campaign. Meanwhile, Obama supporter and former fundraiser Tony Rezko went on trial in a political corruption case in Chicago. While Obama was not implicated, questions remained about how forthcoming he had been about his relationship with Rezko. Controversy also erupted when it was reported in the Canadian press that Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee had privately offered assurances that Obama's anti-North American Free Trade Agreement rhetoric on the campaign trail was exaggerated. Obama's campaign denied the substance of the report, but their response was muddled by a series of missteps and may have hurt the candidate's standing with Ohio voters. Clinton launched a five-point attack on Obama's qualifications, "unleashing what one Clinton aide called a 'kitchen sink' fusillade," according to The New York Times. Perhaps the most damaging component was a campaign ad that aired in Texas, using the imagery of the White House "red phone" to suggest that Obama would not be prepared to handle a crisis as commander-in-chief when a phone call comes into the White House at 3 a.m. The ad drew significant media attention in the four days before the election.
|Details||Delegate votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|March 4||Ohio primary||141||21||162||67||74||67||74|
|Rhode Island primary||21||12||33||8||13||8||13|
|March 8||Wyoming caucuses||12||6||18||7||5||7||5|
|March 11||Mississippi primary||33||8||41||20||13||20||13|
On election night, Clinton scored convincing wins in Ohio and Rhode Island. She narrowly won the Texas primary, while losing the Texas caucus. She pitched her wins that night as a comeback: "For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you."
Obama focused on the "delegate math." He won the total delegate count in Texas, and he stayed close to Clinton on the delegate count in Ohio. "No matter what happens tonight," he said, "we have nearly the same delegate lead that we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination." In fact, March 4 was the first election day in which Clinton won more delegates than Obama (though the Florida and Michigan primaries would later be honored by seating half of the states' delegations). After winning contests in Wyoming and Mississippi the following week, Obama erased Clinton's March 4 gains. On March 15, he increased his lead by 10 delegates at the Iowa county conventions, when former supporters of withdrawn candidates switched their support to him.
After the March contests, the Democratic race entered a six-week period with no upcoming contests until April 22. As the campaigns settled in for the long haul, advisors for both candidates escalated their rhetoric and stepped up attacks in their daily conference calls. News reports described the tenor as increasingly "rancorous" and "vitriolic."
On March 14, clips of controversial sermons from Obama's former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, resurfaced on YouTube and received heavy airtime on cable news television. Among other things, Wright said, "God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme." Four days later, Obama responded to the controversy in a 37-minute speech, speaking openly about race and religion in the United States. He denounced Wright's remarks while refusing to condemn the pastor himself, and he attempted to pivot from the immediate circumstances to address the larger theme of "A More Perfect Union." The speech was regarded as "breathtakingly unconventional" in its political strategy and tone, and it received generally positive reviews in the press. The New York Times weighed in with an editorial: "Senator Barack Obama, who has not faced such tests of character this year, faced one on Tuesday. It is hard to imagine how he could have handled it better." Ten days later, the speech had been watched at least 3.4 million times on YouTube.
On March 21, former primary candidate Bill Richardson, who has previously held important posts in the Clinton Administration, endorsed Barack Obama, a move that drew intense criticism from Clinton allies, including James Carville's Eastertime comparison of Richardson with Judas Iscariot. On March 25, Mike Gravel announced that he would leave the Democrats and join the Libertarian Party, entering the race for the 2008 Libertarian presidential nomination the following day.
April and beyond
As the race continued to Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina, many observers concluded that Clinton had little chance to overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates. Even if she were to succeed changing the dynamics of the race, there would not be enough pledged delegates remaining for her to catch up under most realistic scenarios. Some analysts believed Clinton could still win the nomination by raising doubts about Obama's electability, fighting for Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the convention, and convincing superdelegates to support her despite her expected loss in the pledged delegate vote. However, the window of opportunity for re-votes in Michigan and Florida appeared to close in late March, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, chair of the Democratic National Convention, said that it would be harmful to the party if superdelegates were to overturn the result of the pledged delegate vote.
Complicating the equation for Democrats, presidential candidate John McCain clinched the Republican nomination on March 4. With Obama and Clinton engaged in the Democratic primary, McCain was free to define his candidacy for the general election largely unchallenged. Some Democrats expressed concern that Clinton stayed in the campaign through March and April, when they felt she had little chance to win the nomination, but a much greater chance to damage Obama's candidacy in the general election. However, others defended Clinton's right to continue on, arguing that a sustained campaign was good for the Democratic Party and that Clinton still had a realistic shot at the nomination.
On April 22, Clinton scored a convincing win in Pennsylvania. However, on May 6, Obama surprised many observers by winning North Carolina by almost 15 percentage points, effectively erasing Clinton's gains in Pennsylvania. Clinton won by only 1 point in Indiana. With Obama now leading by 164 pledged delegates and with only 217 pledged delegates left to be decided in the remaining contests, many pundits declared that the primary was effectively over. Obama gave an election night speech that looked forward to the general election campaign against McCain. The pace of superdelegate endorsements increased. On May 10, Obama's superdelegate total surpassed Clinton's for the first time in the race, making the math increasingly difficult for a Clinton win.
Clinton vowed to continue campaigning, and won convincingly in primaries in West Virginia on May 13, and Kentucky on May 20 where Appalachian voters strongly preferred her over Obama. However, Obama was able to clear a victory in Oregon on May 20, which allowed him to clinch the majority of pledged delegates. Obama gave a speech in Des Moines, Iowa, the state that propelled his candidacy, in which he stated, "You have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America." Clinton advisers said they would appeal to the DNC's Rules & Bylaws Committee to have the Michigan and Florida delegations seated. However, even under the most favorable seating arrangement, she would not have been able to take a lead in pledged delegates and would have had to rely on superdelegates to win the nomination. On May 31, the rules committee accepted the Michigan state party's 69-59 distribution of pledged delegates and restored half votes to Florida's and Michigan's delegations. This resulted in a net gain for Clinton of 24 pledged delegates. Obama remained significantly ahead, with a lead of 137 pledged delegates before the Puerto Rico primary on June 1.
On June 3, the day of the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana, Obama rolled out about sixty superdelegate endorsements. Those endorsements, together with the pledged delegates awarded in the final primaries, put him well over the "magic number" of 2,117 delegate votes necessary for a majority at the Democratic National Convention. By early in the evening, all major news organizations had announced that Obama had clinched the Democratic nomination, and Obama claimed the status of presumptive nominee in a speech in St. Paul, Minnesota. Clinton did not concede the nomination in her election night speech, saying that she would be "making no decisions tonight". On the morning of June 5, Clinton posted on her website an open letter to her supporters, which she also sent by e-mail that day. It announced that on Saturday (June 7) Clinton would endorse Obama's candidacy. During a well received concession speech in Washington DC on Saturday June 7 Clinton endorsed Obama in the following terms: "The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama, the next president of the United States. Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him."
|Details||Delegate votes to the convention||Pledged delegate vote count|
|April 22||Pennsylvania primary||158||29||187||73||85||73||85|
|May 3||Guam caucuses||4||5||9||2||2||2||2|
|May 6||Indiana primary||72||13||85||34||38||34||38|
|North Carolina primary||115||19||134||67||48||67||48|
|May 13||West Virginia primary||28||11||39||8||20||8||20|
|May 20||Kentucky primary||51||9||60||14||37||14||37|
|June 1||Puerto Rico primary||55||8||63||17||38||17||38|
|June 3||Montana primary||16||9||25||9||7||9||7|
|South Dakota primary||15||8||23||6||9||6||9|
* Two at-large DNC superdelegate seats are vacant, see: History of superdelegate composition changes.
Voter turnout was at historically high levels in the 2008 primaries and caucuses, with many contests setting all-time records for turnout. Voter turnout on Super Tuesday was at 27% of eligible citizens, breaking the previous record of 25.9% set in 1972. Turnout was higher among Democrats than Republicans, with Democratic turnout surpassing Republican turnout even in traditionally red states where the number of registered Democrats is proportionally low. Many states reported high levels of Democratic voter registration in the weeks before primaries. From January 3 through February 5, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout, 19.1 million to 13.1 million.
In the first five weeks of 2008, 'voter turnout' was a phrase that was used almost exclusively in connection with the Democratic Party. There were routine stories of precincts running short on ballots, poll hours being extended, and voters packing haunch to paunch inside community centers and local churches. Crowd sizes were described, often with growing awe, as 'staggering,' 'record breaking,' or 'unprecedented.'
— Kent Garber, U.S. News & World Report
The high Democratic turnout was attributed to several factors:
- the compressed primary calendar, which gave voters in more states an opportunity to participate in the nomination
- the first competitive Democratic race since 1992
- media interest and voter excitement generated by the first viable African American and female presidential contenders
- dissatisfaction with Republican presidential candidates
- the early emergence of John McCain as the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party
- open primaries in some states, which allowed Republicans and independent voters to participate in Democratic contests
- dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush and Iraq War policy
- cyclical party realignment
- Fundraising for the 2008 United States presidential election
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential candidates
- Political positions of Barack Obama
- Political positions of Hillary Rodham Clinton
- Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
- Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008
Notes and references
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- The pledged delegate estimates come from the sum of the states listed in the Chronicle section in this article.
- "Clinton to suspend campaign Saturday". MSNBC. 2008-06-04. Retrieved 2008-06-04.
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- Sources are indicated at each state's primary or caucus article, reached by following the appropriate "Election link."
- Several candidates have withdrawn their nomination bids since the Iowa caucuses on January 3. At the Iowa county conventions on March 15 and the district conventions on April 26, some delegates supporting the withdrawn candidates moved their support to Obama.
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Edwards still has 3 state-wide delegates from Iowa, which will be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14. They will remain in Edwards column until then.
- After John Edwards withdrew from the race and subsequently endorsed Barack Obama on May 14, a delegate supporting Edwards announced an intention to support Obama at the national convention.
- Higher turnout from Obama supporters at the Nevada state convention on May 17 resulted in a 14-11 delegate split, in contrast to the 13-12 split predicted by the precinct caucuses on January 19. See: Obama flips Clinton's Nevada win; captures more national delegates, Inside Nevada Politics, May 17, 2008.
- After John Edwards withdrew from the race and subsequently endorsed Barack Obama on May 14, some delegates supporting Edwards announced their intention to support Obama at the national convention
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- "Four Candidates Withdraw from Michigan Primary Ballot" (Press release). Michigan Department of State. 2007-10-09. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- Zachary Gorchow (2008-01-03). "Kucinich says he'll come to Michigan after all". Detroit Free Press. Archived from the original on 2008-06-25. Retrieved 2008-01-14.
- Kathy Barks Hoffman (2007-10-10). "Clinton In, 5 Dems Out of Mich. Primary". Guardian Unlimited (London). Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-01-14.[dead link]
- Stephen Ohlemacher (2007-12-02). "Democrats Strip Michigan of Delegates". WKRN. Associated Press. Archived from the original on 2007-12-03. Retrieved 2008-01-14.
- "MDP Releases Voter Guide To Help Voters Understand Presidential Primary" (Press release). Michigan Democratic Party. 2007-12-10. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- Balz, Dan (2008-02-09). "Sanctioned States Put Democrats in Quandary". Washington Post. Retrieved 2008-03-20. See also: Sheinin, Aaron Gould (2008-03-06). "Thurmond backs re-voting in Florida, Michigan". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- Krunholz, June (2008-03-19). "Disenfranchising Non-Voters in Florida and Michigan?". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- Broder, John M. (2008-01-30). "Clinton Wins in Florida, but Without Any Delegates to Sweeten the Victory". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- Luo, Michael; John M. Broder (2008-02-15). "Delegate Battles Snarl Democrats in Two States". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20. See also: Mooney, Alexander (2008-03-20). "Obama: Wright flap has 'shaken me up'". CNN. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- "Rules and Bylaws Committee membership". 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. 2008-04-28. Retrieved 2008-05-31.
- "Regulations of the Rules & Bylaws Committee For the 2008 Democratic National Convention (amended)" (PDF). DNC. 2007-02-01. Retrieved 2008-05-31.
- Parnes, Amie; Avi Zenilman (2008-05-31). "DNC panel agrees to seat Mich., Fla.". Politico. Retrieved 2008-06-04.
- "Florida and Michigan Votes Seated". 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. 2008-05-31. Retrieved 2008-05-31.
- +1 due to Brenda Lawrence becoming a DNC Member for National Conference of Democratic Mayors," filling a previous vacancy
- Ken Curtis moved from Maine to Florida. (Florida +1; Maine -1)
- Schneider, Bill (2007-02-07). "It could all be over after 'Super Tuesday'". CNN. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
- Chuck Todd (2007-05-10). "Will Tsunami Tuesday be an Afterthought?". MSNBC.
- Kennedy, Caroline (2008-01-27). "A President Like My Father". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-01-27.
- Allen, Mike; Brown, Carrie Budoff (2008-01-27). "Ted Kennedy embraces Obama". Politico. Retrieved 2008-01-27.
- Jeff Zeleny, Brian Knowlton (2008-01-27). "Kennedy Plans to Back Obama Over Clinton". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-01-27.
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- Rosenthal, Andrew (2008-02-04). "Michelle, Maria, Caroline and Oprah on the Hustings in California". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20. See also: Collins, Gail (2008-01-31). "Four's a Crowd". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20. See also: Zeleny, Jeff; Elisabeth Bumiller (2008-02-03). "Candidates Scrambling As Wave of Votes Nears". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- The final result of the state convention on May 24 was a 10-3 split in pledged delegates. A 9-4 split had been predicted after the precinct caucuses on February 5. See Alaska Democratic caucuses, 2008 for details.
- The final result of the state convention on May 17 and the district conventions was a 36-19 split. A 35-20 split had been predicted after the precinct caucuses on February 5. See Colorado Democratic caucuses, 2008 for details.
- Hook, Janet; Mark Z. Barabak (2008-02-06). "Obama, Clinton campaigns assess Super Tuesday results". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on 2008-02-09. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
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- Healy, Patrick; Jeff Zeleny (2008-02-08). "Obama Outshines Clinton at Raising Funds". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-03-20.
- Washington Democrats use the February 9 caucuses to award delegates and ignore the February 19 primary. See Washington Democratic caucuses, 2008 for details.
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- Clinton pledged delegate Jack Evans has announced an intention to vote for Obama at the national convention. See Washington City Paper and Washington Post articles. See District of Columbia Democratic primary, 2008 for details.
- Albert Wynn announced his resignation as U.S. Representative on March 28, 2008. (Maryland -1) See Helderman, Rosalind S.; Jeffrey H. Birnbaum (2008-03-28). "Wynn Decides to Leave Congress Months Before His Term Expires". Washington Post. Retrieved 2008-03-30.
- In May, pledged Clinton delegate Jack B. Johnson said he would vote for Obama, and urge the entire Maryland delegation to do so also. See "Pr. George's Executive Switches To Obama", Washington Post, May 13, 2008. See Maryland Democratic primary, 2008 for details.
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- Under the rules of Texas's unique "two-step" system, 126 pledged delegates are chosen during the primary on March 4. The remaining 67 pledged delegates are chosen during a caucus process beginning March 4 and culminating in a state convention June 6–7.
- The results from the Texas county conventions on March 29 predict a 37-30 split, in contrast to the precinct conventions on March 4, which predicted a 38-29 split. The June 6 convention changed the split to a 38-29 count for Obama. See Texas Democratic primary and caucuses, 2008 for details.
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