Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

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Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
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2016 (specific dates TBD)
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The Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016, will take place in the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories, as well as among U.S. citizens living all over the world,[1] prior to the 2016 general election to determine the Democratic Party's nominee for the Presidency of the United States.[2] Incumbent president and 2012 nominee Barack Obama is ineligible for reelection, due to term limits under the Twenty-second Amendment.

Background[edit]

In the weeks following the re-election of incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, media speculation regarding potential candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2016 presidential election began to circulate. The speculation centered on the prospects of Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, making a second presidential bid in the 2016 election. Clinton had previously served as a U.S. Senator (2001–09) and was the First Lady of the U.S. (1993–2001).[3][4] A January 2013 Washington PostABC News poll indicated that she had high popularity among the American public.[5][6] This polling data prompted numerous political pundits and observers to anticipate that Clinton would mount a second presidential bid in 2016, entering the race as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination.[7]

Within the party's liberal left wing were calls for a more progressive candidate to challenge what was perceived by many within this segment as the party's "establishment".[8] U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren quickly became a highly touted figure within this movement as well as the object of an ongoing draft movement to run in the primaries,[9] despite her repeated denials of interest in doing so.[8][10] The MoveOn.org campaign 'Run Warren Run', announced that they will disband on June 8, 2015, and instead focus their efforts toward progressive issues.[11] The draft campaign's New Hampshire staffer Kurt Ehrenberg has joined Bernie Sanders' team and most of the remaining staffers are expected to do the same.[12]

Independent U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is running as a presidential candidate for the Democratic nomination.[13] He officially announced his run for candidacy on April 30, 2015.[14] Bernie Sanders is seen as the biggest rival to Hillary Clinton.[15]

Given the historical tendency for sitting Vice Presidents to seek the presidency in election cycles in which the incumbent President is not a candidate, there was also considerable speculation regarding a potential presidential run by incumbent Vice President Joe Biden,[16][17] who had previously campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in the election cycles of 1988 and 2008.[18] This speculation was further fueled by Biden's own expressions of interest in a possible run in 2016.[18][19] Early polling indicated that while Biden would likely be at best a distant runner-up in a match-up against Clinton, he would be the probable frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in the event that Clinton chose not to run.[16][20]

In November 2014 Jim Webb, a former U.S. Senator who had once served as the U.S. Secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration, announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a possible run for the Democratic presidential nomination.[21] This made Webb the first major potential candidate to take a formal action toward seeking the party's 2016 nomination.[21]

Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland as well as a former Mayor of Baltimore, made formal steps toward a campaign for the party's nomination in January 2015 with the hiring and retaining of personnel who had served the previous year as political operatives in Iowa – the first presidential nominating state in the primary elections cycle – as staff for his political action committee (PAC). O'Malley had started the "O’ Say Can You See" PAC in 2012 which had, prior to 2015, functioned primarily as fundraising vehicles for various Democratic candidates around as well for two 2014 ballot measures in Maryland.[22] With the 2015 staffing moves, the PAC ostensibly became a vehicle for O'Malley – who had for several months openly contemplated a presidential bid – to lay the groundwork for a potential campaign for the party's presidential nomination.[23]

In August 2015, Lawrence Lessig unexpectedly announced his intention to enter the race, promising to run if his exploratory committee raised $1 million by Labor Day.[24][25] After accomplishing this, Lessig announced his formal entrance into race.[26] Lessig has described his candidacy as a referendum on campaign finance reform and electoral reform legislation. His campaign is unique for clearly prioritizing a single issue: restoring democracy via The Citizen Equality Act, a proposal that couples campaign finance reform with other laws aimed at curbing gerrymandering and ensuring voting access.[27] [28]

As of September 2015, the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire have been seen as contested between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, although Clinton holds a solid lead in other early states, and is considered to have a "Super Tuesday firewall."

Candidates[edit]

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). They are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls[edit]

The following candidates have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls.

Campaign gallery[edit]

Other candidates[edit]

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC. As of October 2015, none have been featured in a national poll.

Withdrew before the primaries[edit]

  • Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator from Virginia (2007–2013). Suspended campaign on October 20, 2015.[48]

Process[edit]

The Democratic Party presidential primaries and caucuses are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention; these delegates in turn directly elect the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. However, depending on each state's law and each state's party rules, when voters cast ballots for a candidate, they may be voting to actually award delegates bound to vote for a particular candidate at the state or national convention (binding primary or caucus), or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to the national convention (non-binding primary or caucus).

There are 3,636 pledged delegates in the 2016 cycle. Under the party's delegate selection rules, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. is determined using a formula based on two main factors:

  1. The proportion of votes each state gave to the Democratic candidate in the last three presidential elections (2004, 2008 and 2012)
  2. The number of electoral votes each state has in the United States Electoral College.

For the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands; and Democrats Abroad, fixed numbers of pledged delegates are allocated. Each state and U.S territory will also be awarded bonus pledged delegates based on whether they schedule their primary or caucus later in the primary season. All states and territories then must use a proportional representation system, where their pledged delegates are awarded proportionally to the election results.[49]

The current 704 unpledged superdelegates will include members of the United States House of Representatives and Senate, state and territorial governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, and other party leaders. Because of possible deaths, resignations, or the results of intervening or special elections, the final number of these superdelegates may be reduced before the convention.[49]

The Democratic National Committee has also imposed rules for states wishing to hold early contests in 2016. No state will be permitted to hold a primary or caucus in January; and only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are entitled to February contests. Any state that violates these rules will be penalized half of their pledged delegates and all of their unpledged delegates to the 2016 convention.[49]

Schedule of primaries and caucuses[edit]

The tentative schedule for 2016 is as follows:

Date[50][51] State/territory Calculated delegates[52] Type[a]
Pledged Unpledged[b]
February 1, 2016 Iowa 46 8 Semi-open caucus
February 9, 2016 New Hampshire 24 8 Semi-closed primary
February 20, 2016 Nevada 31 8 Closed caucus
February 27, 2016 South Carolina 51 6 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Alabama 52 6 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Arkansas 32 5 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Colorado 64 13 Closed caucus
March 1–8, 2016 Democrats abroad 13 4 Closed primary
March 1, 2016 Georgia 98 14 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Massachusetts 95 26 Semi-closed primary
March 1, 2016 Minnesota 78 16 Open caucus
March 1, 2016 Oklahoma 38 4 Semi-closed primary
March 1, 2016 Tennessee 68 9 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Texas 208 29 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Vermont 15 8 Open primary
March 1, 2016 Virginia 95 17 Open primary
March 5, 2016 Louisiana 54 7 Closed primary
March 5, 2016 Nebraska 26 5 Closed caucus
March 5, 2016 Kansas 33 4 Closed primary
March 6, 2016 Maine 25 5 Closed caucus
March 8, 2016 Mississippi 36 5 Open primary
March 8, 2016 Michigan 133 19 Open primary
March 15, 2016 Florida 207 31 Closed primary
March 15, 2016 Illinois 160 30 Semi-closed primary
March 15, 2016 Missouri 75 13 Open primary
March 15, 2016 North Carolina 107 13 Semi-closed primary
March 15, 2016 Ohio 148 17 Semi-open primary
March 22, 2016 Arizona 63 12 Closed primary
March 22, 2016 Idaho 20 4 Semi-closed caucus
March 22, 2016 Utah 24 4 Semi-open caucus
March 26, 2016 Alaska 14 4 Closed caucus
March 26, 2016 Hawaii 22 9 Semi-closed caucus
March 26, 2016 Washington 86 16 Open caucus
April 5, 2016 Wisconsin 79 10 Open primary
April 9, 2016 Wyoming 13 4 Closed caucus
April 19, 2016 New York 233 44 Closed primary
April 26, 2016 Maryland 78 27 Closed primary
April 26, 2016 Connecticut 51 14 Closed primary
April 26, 2016 Delaware 17 10 Closed primary
April 26, 2016 Pennsylvania 160 21 Closed primary
April 26, 2016 Rhode Island 22 9 Semi-closed primary
May 3, 2016 Indiana 70 9 Open primary
May 7, 2016 Guam 6 5 Closed caucus
May 10, 2016 West Virginia 26 9 Semi-closed primary
May 17, 2016 Kentucky 47 6 Closed primary
May 17, 2016 Oregon 52 12 Closed primary
June 5, 2016 Puerto Rico 51 7 Open primary
June 7, 2016 California 405 71 Semi-closed primary
June 7, 2016 Montana 15 7 Open primary
June 7, 2016 New Jersey 110 16 Closed primary
June 7, 2016 New Mexico 29 9 Closed primary
June 7, 2016 South Dakota 15 5 Semi-open primary
June 14, 2016 District of Columbia 17 20 Closed primary
TBA North Dakota 14 5 Open primary
TBA American Samoa 6 4 Open caucus
TBA Northern Marianas 6 5 N/A
TBA Virgin Islands 6 5 Closed caucus

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Primary and Delegates for Democrats Abroad". Retrieved April 13, 2015. 
  2. ^ Cillizza, Chris (February 13, 2013). "Hillary and the rest: The Fix’s ranking of the 2016 Democratic primary field". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 11, 2014. 
  3. ^ Cohen, Jon (December 5, 2012). "Run Hillary Run!: Majority want a Clinton 2016 candidacy". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 7, 2015. 
  4. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (December 10, 2012). "Clinton rides high poll numbers into private life (for now?)". CNN.com. Retrieved March 7, 2015. 
  5. ^ Cohen, Jon; Blake, Aaron (January 23, 2013). "Hillary Clinton reaches new heights of political popularity". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 7, 2015. 
  6. ^ Marlantes, Liz (December 10, 2012). "Are Republicans really 'incapable' of beating Hillary Clinton in 2016?". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved March 7, 2015. 
  7. ^ Marlantes, Liz (December 5, 2012). "New polls fuel speculation about Hillary Clinton in 2016". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved March 7, 2015. 
  8. ^ a b Bolton, Alexander (November 12, 2013). "Left wants challenger for Hillary Clinton". The Hill. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  9. ^ Martin, Jonathan (September 29, 2013). "Populist Left Makes Warren Its Hot Ticket". The New York Times. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  10. ^ December 4, 2013. "Elizabeth Warren: I'm Not Running For President". The Huffington Post. Associated Press. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  11. ^ "Campaign To Draft Elizabeth Warren For President Comes To A Halt". Retrieved June 5, 2015. 
  12. ^ "Sanders Eyes Run Warren Run’s Network in Iowa". Retrieved June 5, 2015. 
  13. ^ "Bernie Sanders formally launches run for president with attack on 'grotesque' level of inequality". Retrieved June 5, 2015. 
  14. ^ "Bernie Sanders, Long-Serving Independent, Enters Presidential Race as a Democrat". Retrieved June 5, 2015. 
  15. ^ "Challenging Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders Gains Momentum in Iowa". Retrieved June 5, 2015. 
  16. ^ a b Rudin Ken (May 7, 2013). "Joe Biden Has History On His Side But Little Else If Hillary Clinton Runs". NPR.com. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  17. ^ Hobratsch , Jonathan (March 17, 2014). "When Vice Presidents Run for President". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  18. ^ a b Gaudiano, Nicole (January 22, 2013). "Will Joe Biden run for president in 2016?". USA Today. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  19. ^ Rucker, Philip (May 2, 2013). "Biden ponders a 2016 bid, but a promotion to the top job seems to be a long shot". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  20. ^ Falcone, Michael (May 2, 2013). "Biden’s Poll Lead Evaporates If Clinton Runs in 2016". ABC News.com. Retrieved March 10, 2015. 
  21. ^ a b Lee, Kurtis (November 20, 2014). "Long shot Jim Webb launches exploratory committee for presidential bid". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 20, 2014. 
  22. ^ Wagner, John (July 26, 2012). "O’Malley launches federal PAC as national profile rises". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 11, 2015. 
  23. ^ Wagner, John (January 27, 2015). "O’Malley, with eye on 2016, retains two political operatives with Iowa experience". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 11, 2015. 
  24. ^ "Harvard Professor Hits Million Dollar Benchmark for White House Bid". Associated Press. September 6, 2015. 
  25. ^ Foran, Clare (August 11, 2015). "Why Exactly Is Lawrence Lessig Considering Running for President?". National Journal. Retrieved August 11, 2015. 
  26. ^ Walker, Hayley (September 6, 2015). "Harvard Professor Larry Lessig Says He's Running for President". ABC News. Retrieved September 6, 2015. 
  27. ^ Merica, Dan (August 11, 2015). "Harvard professor Lawrence Lessig is exploring a long shot presidential bid". CNN.com. Retrieved August 11, 2015. 
  28. ^ http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/referendum-presidency-larry-lessig/411013/
  29. ^ DelReal, Jose A. (June 3, 2015). "Lincoln Chafee announces long-shot presidential bid". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 3, 2015. 
  30. ^ "Lincoln Chafee FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. June 16, 2015. Retrieved June 16, 2015. 
  31. ^ Chozick, Amy. "Hillary Clinton Announces 2016 Presidential Bid". The New York Times. Retrieved April 12, 2015. 
  32. ^ Karni, Annie (April 12, 2015). "Hillary Clinton formally announces 2016 run". Politico. Retrieved April 18, 2015. 
  33. ^ "Hillary Rodham Clinton FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. April 13, 2015. Retrieved April 13, 2015. 
  34. ^ "Meet Lessig". Retrieved October 5, 2015. 
  35. ^ Jackson, David & Cooper, Allen (May 30, 2015). "Martin O'Malley jumps into presidential race". USA Today. Retrieved May 30, 2015. 
  36. ^ "Martin O'Malley FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2015. Retrieved June 2, 2015. 
  37. ^ Rappeport, Alan (April 30, 2015). "Bernie Sanders Announces He Is Running for President". The New York Times. Retrieved April 30, 2015. 
  38. ^ "Bernard Sanders FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. April 28, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2015. 
  39. ^ Walker, Hunter (December 26, 2012). "Conspiracy Theorist Jeff Boss Launches Mayoral Bid". Politicker Network. Retrieved June 23, 2013. 
  40. ^ "Jeff Boss FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. August 25, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2015. 
  41. ^ "Harry Braun FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. May 28, 2015. Retrieved August 27, 2015. 
  42. ^ Burns, Michael (October 30, 2014) "Presidential candidate visits his old home in Greer", The Greenville News. Retrieved November 24, 2014.
  43. ^ Palmes-Dennis, Susan (November 1, 2013) "Democratic presidential aspirant lays out game plan for US", Sun.Star. Retrieved November 22, 2013
  44. ^ "Robert Carr Wells Jr. FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. November 11, 2013. Retrieved April 13, 2015. 
  45. ^ Willie Wilson Throws Hat In the Ring to Bid for President Chicago Defender. May 12, 2015. Accessed June 3, 2015.
  46. ^ Chicago businessman Willie Wilson running for president WGN-TV. June 1, 2015. Accessed June 3, 2015.
  47. ^ "Willie Wilson FEC filing" (PDF). FEC. May 13, 2015. Retrieved June 3, 2015. 
  48. ^ Rappeport, Alan (October 20, 2015). "Jim Webb Withdraws From Race for Democratic Presidential Nomination". The New York Times. Retrieved October 21, 2015. 
  49. ^ a b c "Democratic Detailed Delegate Allocation – 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 14, 2015. 
  50. ^ "When to vote". Vote for Bernie '16. 
  51. ^ "2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Major Events Chronologically". The Green Papers. 
  52. ^ "Democratic Detailed Delegate Allocation — 2016". The Green Papers. 

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Differences between types:
    • Open: Anyone can vote regardless of their registered party affiliation.
    • Closed: One must be registered as a Democrat to vote in this election.
    • Semi-open: As long as one is not registered as a Republican, they can vote in this election.
    • Semi-closed: One must be registered as either a Democrat or undeclared to vote in this election.
  2. ^ Also known as a superdelegate. These individuals can vote for any candidate regardless of primary votes.

External links[edit]