Division of Bennelong
Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Bennelong (green) in New South Wales
|Area||58 km2 (22.4 sq mi)|
The Division of Bennelong is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1949 and is named for Bennelong, an Aboriginal man befriended by the first Governor of New South Wales, Arthur Phillip.
It was represented from 1974 to 2007 by John Howard who served as the 25th Prime Minister of Australia from 1996 to 2007 when his government was defeated. Howard also became the second sitting Australian Prime minister to lose his own seat. Though often historically marginal, Maxine McKew of the Australian Labor Party won the seat making her the first Labor MP for Bennelong. However, McKew lost the seat back to the Liberals at the 2010 election.
When the Division of Bennelong was created in 1949, it covered mainly the suburbs of Ryde, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, all of which were (and still are) relatively affluent areas, and as such it has historically been a "fairly safe" Liberal seat.
Over the years Bennelong became increasingly marginal, and this has been attributed to two factors. Firstly, the electoral boundary of Bennelong has been redrawn ("redistributed") numerous times, pushing it further westward into Labor-friendly territory. Successive redistributions eliminated wealthy Lane Cove and Hunters Hill in the East and incorporated Eastwood, Epping, Carlingford and middle class Ermington in the North and West. Secondly, the demographic has changed as well: since the early 1990s, Eastwood and surrounding suburbs have seen an influx of migrants from China, Hong Kong, South Korea and India, who are relatively affluent and conservative, but are sensitive towards political policies on immigration and multiculturalism.
In 1998 Prime Minister Howard finished just short of a majority on the first count in the seat, and was only assured of re-election on the ninth count. He ultimately won a fairly comfortable 56 percent of the two-party preferred vote. In 2004, for the second time since becoming Prime Minister, Howard came up short of a majority in the first count for the seat. He was assured of re-election on the third count, ultimately winning 53.3 percent of the two-party preferred vote.
The two-party preferred vote for the Liberals declined 3.4% in the 2004 election, contrary to a strong national trend to the Coalition (and a particularly strong one to the Coalition in outer-suburban metropolitan seats), making Bennelong a marginal seat at that time, with a margin of just 4.3%. The 2006 redistribution pushed this margin slightly further into Labor territory, due to the inclusion of the predominantly working class and public housing suburb of Ermington in Bennelong's boundaries. The Greens increased their vote at this election by 12.34% to 16.37% at this election due to the preselection of the high-profile Andrew Wilkie.
In the 2007 election, the incumbent Member for Bennelong, then-Prime Minister John Howard, lost the seat to Labor candidate Maxine McKew, after holding it for 33 years. This was only the second time in Australian history that an incumbent Prime Minister had been defeated in his own electorate, the first being Stanley Bruce in 1929. The election marked the first time a Labor candidate won, and also the first time a woman won the seat.
In his national address conceding the election, Howard had admitted that it was "very likely" that he had lost the seat, and many media outlets listed Bennelong as a Labor gain on election night. Following initial reluctance to officially call the outcome (despite confidence of success), McKew declared victory officially on 1 December. At that time, the Australian Electoral Commission showed McKew ahead on a two candidate preferred basis, 43,272 votes to 41,159; however, pre-poll, postal and absent votes were still being counted and could possibly have affected the outcome.
Howard formally conceded defeat in Bennelong on 12 December. The Electoral Commission declared the seat, with 44,685 votes for McKew to 42,251 for Howard. McKew led for most of the night, and ultimately won on the 14th count after over three-fourths of Green preferences flowed to her. Voter turnout in Bennelong was 95%.
|3 October 1998||1998 election||56.03%||43.97%|
|4–5 April 2001||Roy Morgan||57%||43%|
|10 November 2001||2001 election||57.70%||42.30%|
|9 October 2004||2004 election||54.33%||45.67%|
|14–15 February 2007||Roy Morgan||45%||55%|
|9–10 May 2007||Galaxy||48%||52%|
|8–9 August 2007||Galaxy||47%||53%|
For the 2010 Federal election, the Liberal Party pre-selected former tennis professional and tennis commentator John Alexander to contest the marginal seat. McKew recontested the seat for Labor. After a long and high profile campaign, Alexander won the seat back from Labor and increased both the Liberals' two party preferred and primary vote for the first time since 2001 and the largest swing towards the Liberals since 1996. Alexander defeated McKew with a two party preferred swing of 4.52% (c.f. 2.58% national swing in Australian federal election, 2010), contributing to the Gillard Government's loss of its parliamentary majority.
McKew said Labor had failed to repeat the professional and targeted campaign of 2007. She also conceded that the removal of Kevin Rudd had been a factor in the party's poor showing, along with the Government's dumping of the emissions trading scheme and a lacklustre national campaign.
|Australian federal election, 2013: Bennelong|
|Labor||Jason Yat-Sen Li||28,726||32.45||−4.67|
|Christian Democrats||Julie Worsley||2,135||2.41||+0.28|
|Palmer United||Rob Marks||1,589||1.80||+1.80|
|Democratic Labour||Lachlan McCaffrey||617||0.70||+0.70|
|Australia First||Victor Waterson||492||0.56||+0.56|
|Total formal votes||88,522||92.48||−0.15|
|Labor||Jason Yat-Sen Li||37,383||42.23||−4.65|
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- "Special Crikey Morgan Poll: Howard Would Lose Bennelong". Roy Morgan Research. 19 February 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-25.
- "Four Liberals vying for Bennelong seat". ABC News. 20 November 2009. Retrieved 2010-02-28.
- "Bennelong, NSW". Election 2010. Australian Electoral Commission. 2010.
- "Labor bloodbath begins and Maxine McKew throws the first punch". news.com.au. 22 August 2010.