Moncrieff is based on Surfers Paradise and the central portion of the Gold Coast. While the Gold Coast has always been a rather conservative area, Surfers Paradise is considered particularly conservative even by Gold Coast standards. As a result, Moncrieff has been a comfortably safe Liberal seat for its entire existence. The Liberals have never won less than 59 percent of the two-party vote, and since 1993 have usually won enough primary votes to retain the seat without the need for preferences. It is currently the ninth-safest Coalition seat in Australia and the third-safest for either side of politics in Queensland, with a 17-point swing needed for Labor to win it.