Estonian parliamentary election, 2019

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Estonian parliamentary election, 2019

← 2015 3 March 2019 2023 →

101 seats in the Riigikogu
51 seats are needed for a majority

  First party Second party Third party
  RE Kaja Kallas.jpg RK Jüri Ratas.jpg Jevgeni Ossinovski.jpg
Leader Kaja Kallas[2] Jüri Ratas Jevgeni Ossinovski[1]
Party Reform Centre Social Democratic
Last election 30 seats, 27.7% 27 seats, 24.8% 15 seats, 15.2%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Helir-Valdor.jpg IRL Andres Herkel.jpg Mart Helme.jpg
Leader Helir-Valdor Seeder[3] Andres Herkel[4] Mart Helme
Party Pro Patria Free Party Conservative People's
Last election 14 seats, 13.7% 8 seats, 8.7% 7 seats, 8.1%

Estonian Electoral Districts Blank.png
Electoral districts

Prime Minister before election

Jüri Ratas
Centre

Elected Prime Minister

TBD

Parliamentary elections will be held in Estonia on 3 March 2019.

Electoral system[edit]

The 101 members of the Riigikogu are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. Seats are allocated using a modified D'Hondt method. Parties have to pass a nationwide threshold of 5%, but if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeds or equals the simple quota (obtained by dividing the number of valid votes cast in the electoral district by the number of mandates in the district), they are elected.[5]

Opinion polls[edit]

30 day moving average trend line of Estonian polls towards the election in 2019, each line corresponds to a political party.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Date Polling Firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green Others Lead Govt-Opposition
August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 25 27 11 5 2 19 4 7 2 43 – 46
August 2018 Kantar Emor 29.8 23.8 12.7 5.2 4.7 21.2 2 0.6 6 41.7 – 55.7
July 2018 Kantar Emor 30 24 13 5 3 22 3 0.7 6 42 – 55
June 2018 Kantar Emor 32 23 14 7 3 17 5 9 44 – 52
June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 28 27 9 5 4 18 2 7 1 41 – 50
May 2018 Kantar Emor 32 21 11.9 5 4 16.7 3 6.4 11 37.9 – 52.7
May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 30 26 9 5 3 15 4 8 4 40 – 48
April 2018 Kantar Emor 30 21.6 10.6 5.8 5.8 19.1 6.1 1 8.4 38 – 54.9
April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 33 26 6 4 3 14 3 9 7 36 – 50
8–21 Mar 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 31 26 10 5 3 13 3 9 5 41 – 47
8–14 Mar 2018 Kantar Emor 34.1 23.8 10.6 4.1 5.0 18.3 3.6 0.5 10.3 38.5 – 57.4
7–20 Feb 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 27 27 8 6 4 14 3 11 0 41 – 45
Feb 2018 Kantar Emor 34 21 11 6 7 17 4 0 13 38 – 58
15—29 Jan 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 26 27 11 5 4 12 4 11 1 43 – 42
18–25 Jan 2018 Kantar Emor 34.2 20.5 11 4.5 5.4 18.4 4.5 1.5 13.7 36 – 58
8–14 Dec 2017 Kantar Emor 28 22 15 8 6 17 4 0 6 45 – 51
22 Nov–5 Dec 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 24 29 11 8 3 12 3 10 5 48 – 39
1–14 Nov 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 22 27 10 8 4 13 3 13 5 45 – 39
1–9 Nov 2017 Kantar Emor 29.0 26.0 15.1 7.0 5.1 14.4 3.1 0.3 3 48.1 – 48.5
Oct 2017 Kantar Emor 27 27 16 7 4 15 3 1 0 50 – 46
26 Sep–10 Oct 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 29 10 7 3 13 4 9 4 46 – 41
5–18 Sep 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 27 12 8 4 14 2 8 2 47 – 43
8–14 Sep 2017 Kantar Emor 25.7 23.1 18.7 5.8 6.2 16.7 2.0 1.8 2.6 47.6 – 48,6
9–22 Aug 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 24 29 12 5 6 12 4 8 5 46 – 42
11–17 Aug 2017 TNS Emor 27.6 22.8 14.6 3.8 9.4 17.2 3.7 0.9 4.8 41.2 – 54.2
Jul 2017 TNS Emor 26.4 23.1 14.8 6.3 7.4 15.9 5.4 0.7 3.3 44.2 – 49.7
9–16 June 2017 TNS Emor 25.4 25.1 14.2 6.6 8.5 16.2 3 1 0.3 45.9 – 50.1
25 May–6 Jun 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 26 26 11 6 8 10 3 10 0 43 – 44
17–22 May 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 23.7 24.7 12.9 6.9 4.6 12.8 5.7 8.7 1 44.5 – 41.1
12–18 May 2017 TNS Emor 27.5 21.8 17.8 5.6 9.9 13.4 3.7 0.3 5.7 45.2 – 50.8
25 Apr–9 May 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 4 8 14 3 8 1 42 – 47
Apr 2017 TNS Emor 25 25 15 5 11 14 5 1 0 45 – 50
28 Mar–10 Apr 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 20 30 11 8 7 13 2 9 10 49 – 40
1–14 Mar 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 29 11 7 7 8 3 10 4 47 – 40
Mar 2017 TNS Emor 26 27 15 6 10 14 2 0 1 48 – 50
Feb 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 23 29 10 7 8 10 2 11 6 46 – 41
Feb 2017 TNS Emor 25 27 16 7 10 13 2 0 2 50 – 48
19–31 Jan 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 31 10 6 7 9 1 11 6 47 – 41
Dec 2016 TNS Emor 23 26 19 7 8 11 4 2 3 52 – 42
Dec 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 20 32 15 8 6 8 1 10 12 55 – 34
23 Nov 2016 Jüri Ratas' cabinet is sworn in
Nov 2016 TNS Emor 23 24 19 9 11 10 3 1 1 N/A
Nov 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 29 13 9 9 12 7 8 N/A
9 Nov 2016 Taavi Rõivas loses the vote of no confidence in Riigikogu
Oct 2016 TNS Emor 22 25 17 8 15 10 3 0 3 47 – 50
Oct 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 7 9 10 11 1 44 – 45
Sep 2016 TNS Emor 22 20 19 9 12 13 4 1 2 50 – 45
Sep 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 7 9 10 11 1 44 – 45
Aug 2016 TNS Emor 28 23 15 8 9 13 3 1 5 51 – 45
Aug 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 24 15 5 10 13 10 1 43 – 47
Jun 2016 TNS Emor 27 21 17 6 11 14 3 1 6 50 – 46
Jun 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 20 28 10 7 12 13 2 8 8 37 – 53
May 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 23 12 4 11 14 15 2 37 – 48
Apr 2016 TNS Emor 23 22 16 7 15 13 2 2 1 46 – 50
Apr 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 25 13 7 12 14 8 4 41 – 51
Mar 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 25 13 6 12 13 8 2 42 – 50
Mar 2016 TNS Emor 23 25 14 6 15 14 2 1 2 43 – 54
Feb 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 29 12 6 12 11 7 6 41 – 52
Feb 2016 TNS Emor 22 22 16 6 16 13 3 2 0 44 – 51
Jan 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 17 26 13 7 13 12 12 9 37 – 51
Dec 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 20 25 14 7 13 10 11 5 41 – 48
Dec 2015 TNS Emor 21 25 16 8 15 11 3 1 3 45 – 51
Nov 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 17 33 13 8 11 9 9 16 38 – 53
Nov 2015 TNS Emor 20 23 16 7 16 12 3 1 3 43 – 51
Oct 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 19 27 14 8 14 10 8 8 41 – 51
Sep 2015 TNS Emor 24 24 18 7 17 7 3 1 0 49 – 48
Sep 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 21 29 15 9 11 6 9 8 45 – 46
Aug 2015 TNS Emor 20 25 16 9 17 9 3 2 5 45 – 51
Jun 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 16 28 18 9 15 6 8 10 43 – 49
Jun 2015 TNS Emor 18 26 16 8 19 9 3 1 7 42 – 54
May 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 18 31 13 9 14 7 8 13 40 – 52
May 2015 TNS Emor 19 26 17 8 18 8 3 1 7 44 – 52
Apr 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 22 26 17 10 12 7 6 4 49 – 45
Mar 2015 TNS Emor 28 24 16 10 12 9 1 0 4 54 – 45
1 Mar 2015 Election Results 27.7 24.8 15.2 13.7 8.7 8.1 0.9 0.9 2.9 56,6 – 41,6

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Ossinovski valiti sotside uueks juhiks, Mikser loobus". Postimees. 30 May 2015. Retrieved 30 May 2015. 
  2. ^ "Kaja Kallas elected Reform Party's first-ever chairwoman". ERR. 14 April 2018. Retrieved 30 April 2018. 
  3. ^ "Helir-Valdor Seeder elected chairman of IRL". ERR. 13 May 2017. Retrieved 13 April 2017. 
  4. ^ "Herkel elected Free Party chair". ERR. Retrieved 13 May 2018. 
  5. ^ "Riigikogu Election Act". Riigi Teataja. 20 January 2015. Retrieved 1 April 2015. 

External links[edit]