Florida's 13th congressional district special election, 2014

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Florida's 13th congressional district special election, 2014
Florida
← 2012 March 11, 2014 2014 →

Florida's 13th congressional district
  David Jolly.jpg Alex Sink.png
Nominee David Jolly Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 89,099 85,642
Percentage 48.4% 46.6%

U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner of the special election.

Background[edit]

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died 9 days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.[4][5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists' agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.[6]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Bircher
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Undecided
St. Pete Polls January 9, 2014 653 ± 3.8% 26.3% 36.5% 23.9% 13.3%
Gravis Marketing January 8, 2014 976 ± 3% 25% 34% 28% 14%
St. Pete Polls December 30, 2013 488 ± 4.4% 17.7% 39.4% 27.7% 15.1%
St. Pete Polls December 18, 2013 660 ± 3.8% 16.1% 34.9% 30.2% 18.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 534 ± 4.2% 17.2% 27.8% 27.1% 28.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Baker
Neil
Brickfield
Larry
Crow
Frank
Hibbard
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Karen
Seel
Other Undecided
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 582 ± 4.1% 39.2% 17.3% 30.9% 12.6%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 498 ± 4.4% 16.8% 15% 18.7% 28.7% 20.8%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 742 ± 3.6% 51% 7% 4% 2% 10% 27%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Jolly 20,493 45
Republican Kathleen Peters 14,234 31
Republican Mark Bircher 11,242 24
Total votes 45,810 100

Democratic nomination[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[47]

Debates[edit]

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[48] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[49]

Campaign spending[edit]

During the campaign, the Center for Responsive Politics reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[50]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.[51]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Lucas
Overby (L)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 7–9, 2014 702 ± 3.7% 45% 48% 6% 2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. February 25–27, 2014 391 ± 6% 46% 44% 5% 5%
St. Pete Polls February 25, 2014 1,269 ± 2.8% 45.6% 45.9% 6.4% 2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates February 17–18, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%
St. Pete Polls February 12, 2014 1,130 ± 2.9% 46.2% 44% 6.6% 2.4%
St. Leo University February 9–11, 2014 400 ± 5% 37% 46% 12% 5%
Braun Research February 4–9, 2014 603 ± 4% 35% 42% 4% 14%
DCCC January 24, 2014 527 ± 4.3% 45% 49% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates January 16–19, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 43% 38% 4% 15%
St. Pete Polls January 15, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 47% 42.8% 4.4% 5.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 36.3% 49% 5.6% 8.8%
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 1,252 ± 2.8% 34.9% 49.3% 15.7%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 31% 51.5% 17.5%

Results[edit]

Florida's 13th Congressional District special election, 2014 [62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Jolly 89,099 48.43
Democratic Alex Sink 85,642 46.55
Libertarian Lucas Overby 8,893 4.83
N/A Write-ins 328 0.18
Total votes 183,962 100
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Alex Isenstadt (October 18, 2013). "Bill Young, longest-serving House Republican, dies". Politico. Retrieved October 19, 2013. 
  2. ^ Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "Florida House Special-Election Date Scheduled". Roll Call. 
  3. ^ "November 6, 2012 General Election – Official Results". Florida Department of State. Retrieved October 19, 2013. 
  4. ^ Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young’s purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post.
  5. ^ The Hill
    CNN
    Orlando Sentinel
    New York Magazine
    Sunshine State News
    WSJ
    WWSB
  6. ^ Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik (March 12, 2014). "The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election". Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. 
    Nathan L. Gonzales (March 10, 2014). "Why Florida's 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup". The Rothenberg Political Report. 
    Sean Trende (March 11, 2014). "What Should We Read Into FL-13? Maybe Nothing.". RealClearPolitics. 
    Harry Enten (March 12, 2014). "Don't Read Too Much Into Result in Florida's 13th District". FiveThirtyEight. 
    Nate Silver (September 13, 2011). "A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin". FiveThirtyEight. 
  7. ^ a b c d e f g Curtis Krueger (November 19, 2013). "State Rep. Kathleen Peters enters Pinellas congressional race, creating a GOP contest". Tampa Bay Times. 
  8. ^ a b c d "Rick Baker won't run for Young's seat, but David Jolly will". Tampa Bay Times. November 2, 2013. Retrieved November 2, 2013. 
  9. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 18, 2013). "State Rep. Peters files paperwork for Pinellas congressional seat, plans announcement for Tuesday". Tampa Bay Times. 
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Peter Schorsch (November 10, 2013). "Rick Baker endorses David Jolly in special election for Congressional District 13". SaintPetersBlog. 
  11. ^ "Safety Harbor Mayor Ayoub not running for Congress and so far not supporting GOP candidate David Jolly". November 13, 2012. Retrieved November 13, 2013. 
  12. ^ Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013). "Former St. Pete mayor Rick Baker announcing he is NOT running for Congressional District 13". SaintPetersBlog. 
  13. ^ Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013). "Former Pinellas Commissioner Brickfield will not run for Congress". Tampa Bay Times. 
  14. ^ a b Curtis Krueger (November 2, 2013). "Who's in, who's out in race for Rep. C.W. Bill Young's seat". Tampa Bay Times. 
  15. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013). "Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri says no to congressional run". Tampa Bay Times. 
  16. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013). "GOP's Gualtieri and Hibbard rule out campaign to replace Young in Congress". Tampa Bay Times. 
  17. ^ Peter Schorsch (November 6, 2013). "Tea Party loon, charity scammer Michael Pinson announces he won't run for Congress". SaintPetersBlog. 
  18. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 5, 2013). "Pinellas Commissioner Karen Seel won't run for Congress". Tampa Bay Times. 
  19. ^ Peter Schorsch (November 1, 2013). "Bill Young, Jr. announces HE WILL NOT seek his father's congressional seat". SaintPetersBlog. 
  20. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 11, 2013). "Tom Young won't run for his brother's seat in Congress". Tampa Bay Times. 
  21. ^ Peter Schorsch (October 22, 2013). "CD 13 aspirant Nick Zoller tells me he won't run in special election; wants Beverly Young to complete term". SaintPetersBlog. 
  22. ^ Adam C. Smith (December 18, 2013). "Allen West backs Mark Bircher in race for Young seat". Tampa Bay Times. 
  23. ^ a b Peter Schorsch (November 14, 2013). "David Jolly gets key Pinellas endorsement from Sen. Jeff Brandes". SaintPetersBlog. 
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Clearwater Fraternal Order of Police Endorses Republican David Jolly for Congress" (PDF). Friends of David Jolly. November 21, 2013. 
  25. ^ a b Curtis Krueger (December 10, 2013). "Endorsement wars are raging in Pinellas congressional race". Tampa Bay Times. 
  26. ^ a b Peter Schorsch (November 17, 2013). "Property Appraiser Pam Dubov backs David Jolly's bid for CD 13". SaintPetersBlog. 
  27. ^ a b Peter Schorsch (November 8, 2013). "U.S. Rep. Richard Nugent endorses David Jolly's congressional bid". SaintPetersBlog. 
  28. ^ a b c d Curtis Krueger (November 8, 2013). "Endorsements for Congressional candidate David Jolly". Tampa Bay Times. 
  29. ^ a b Bob Barker says ‘the choice is right’ – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs
  30. ^ a b c Curtis Krueger (December 17, 2013). "Farkas endorses Peters, contractors endorse Jolly in Pinellas GOP congress race". Tampa Bay Times. 
  31. ^ "Tribune endorses David Jolly for District 13 GOP primary". Tampa Tribune. December 22, 2013. 
  32. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Phil Ammann (November 30, 2013). "Bill Young Jr. helping to host Dec. 4 fundraiser for Kathleen Peters". SaintPetersBlog. 
  33. ^ Peter Schorsch (December 10, 2013). "Email Insights: not-too-bitter Bill Foster endorses Kathleen Peters". SaintPetersBlog. 
  34. ^ Abby Livingston (December 9, 2013). "House GOP Women Fundraise for Florida Special Candidate (Updated)". RollCall. 
  35. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 21, 2013). "In Pinellas congressional race, Peters and Jolly receive new endorsementss". Tampa Bay Times. 
  36. ^ "Times recommends: Kathleen Peters for U.S. House GOP primary". Tampa Bay Times. December 16, 2013. 
  37. ^ . Associated Press http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_US_House_0114.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS. Retrieved January 14, 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  38. ^ Adam C. Smith (October 30, 2013). "Alex Sink is running for C.W. Bill Young's congressional seat, will move to Pinellas". Tampa Bay Times. 
  39. ^ Abby Livingston (November 6, 2013). "Democrat Suspends Campaign Against Alex Sink in Florida District". Roll Call. 
  40. ^ Curtis Krueger (October 28, 2013). "Pinellas Commissioner Janet Long decides against running for Congress". Tampa Bay Times. 
  41. ^ a b "Pinellas Commissioner Charlie Justice won't run for Young's seat, Libertarian Lucas Overby will". Tampa Bay Times. October 25, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2013. 
  42. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af Curtis Krueger (November 12, 2013). "Congressional candidate Alex Sink touts Pinellas endorsements". Tampa Bay Times. 
  43. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Peter Schorsch (December 2, 2013). "Alex Sink picks up more endorsements from Pinellas elected officials". SaintPetersBlog. 
  44. ^ a b Peter Schorsch (November 14, 2013). "Dog bites man: Kathy Castor endorses Alex Sink for Congress". SaintPetersBlog. 
  45. ^ a b "EMILY's List Endorses Alex Sink For Florida Congressional Seat". Talking Points Memo. October 31, 2013. Retrieved October 31, 2013. 
  46. ^ Curtis Krueger (November 20, 2013). "Congressional candidate Jolly calls for replacing controversial flood insurance program". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved November 20, 2013. 
  47. ^ Leary, Alex (February 3, 2014). "Campaign site misleads man into donating money against Sink". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved February 3, 2014. 
  48. ^ Florida 13th District Debate | Video | C-SPAN.org
  49. ^ "Who do you think did best at Monday night's Congressional debate?". Bay News 9. Retrieved 9 February 2014. 
  50. ^ "Outside Spending Dominates in Florida, to Jolly's Benefit". OpenSecrets. Retrieved 17 February 2014. 
  51. ^ "Florida Special Election Results: David Jolly Wins House Seat In State's 13th District". Associated Press/Huffington Post. Retrieved 11 March 2014. 
  52. ^ a b c Curtis Krueger (January 15, 2014). "Kathleen Peters not ready to endorse David Jolly". Tampa Bay Times. 
  53. ^ a b Rick Scott raising money for David Jolly - SaintPetersBlog
  54. ^ Kevin Derby (January 23, 2014). "John McCain, NRCC Help Out David Jolly Over Alex Sink". Sunshine State News. 
  55. ^ Curtis Krueger (January 20, 2014). "After balking, GOP candidate supports David Jolly in Pinellas congressional race". Tampa Bay Times. 
  56. ^ Rand Paul Does American Crossroads Robocall to Thwart Libertarian Candidate in FL-13
  57. ^ Marco Rubio highlights his support of David Jolly over Alex Sink | Sunshine State News
  58. ^ "Tribune endorsement: David Jolly for U.S. House District 13". Tampa Tribune. February 9, 2014. Retrieved February 21, 2014. 
  59. ^ Jed Ziggler (January 13, 2014). "Gary Johnson endorses Lucas Overby". Independent Political Report. 
  60. ^ Adam C. Smith (February 23, 2014). "Republican endorses Alex Sink". Tampa Bay Times. 
  61. ^ "Times recommends: Alex Sink for U.S. House". Tampa Bay Times. February 7, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2014. 
  62. ^ Pinellas - Election Results

External links[edit]