Global Terrorism Index

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The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a report published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), and was developed by IT entrepreneur and IEP's founder Steve Killelea.

The index provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2000. It produces a composite score in order to provide an ordinal ranking of countries on the impact of terrorism.

It is an attempt to systematically rank the nations of the world according to terrorist activity. The index combines a number of factors associated with terrorist attacks to build an explicit picture of the impact of terrorism, illustrating trends, and providing a data series for analysis by researchers and policymakers.

The GTI is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) which is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD has codified over 150,000 cases of terrorism.[1]

The GTI covers 163 countries, covering 99.7% of the worlds population.

The aim of the report is to examine trends and to help inform a positive and practical debate about the future of terrorism and the required policy responses.

The GTI was developed in consultation with the Global Peace Index expert panel.

Methodology[edit]

There is no single internationally accepted definition of what constitutes terrorism, IEP accepts the terminology and definitions agreed to by the authors of the GTD, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) researchers and its advisory panel. The GTI therefore defines terrorism as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”[2]. This definition recognises that terrorism it not only the physical act of an attack, but also the psychological impact it has on a society for many years after.

In order to be included as an incident in the GTD the act has to be: “an intentional act of violence or threat of violence by a non-state actor". This means an incident has to meet three criteria in order for it to be counted as a terrorist act:

  1. The incident must be intentional – the result of a conscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.
  2. The incident must entail some level of violence or threat of violence — including property damage, as well as violence against people.
  3. The perpetrators of the incidents must be sub-national actors. This database does not include acts of state terrorism.[3]

GTI Scoring System[edit]

The GTI score for a country in a given year is based on a unique scoring system to account for the relative impact of incidents in the year. There are four factors counted in each country's yearly score:

Each of the factors is weighted differently and a five-year weighted average is applied to importantly reflect the lingering psychological effect of terrorist acts over time. The weightings shown in the table below were determined by consultation with the GPI Expert Panel:

Dimension Weight
Total number of incidents 1
Total number of fatalities 3
Total number of injuries 0.5
Sum of property damages measure 2

The greatest weighting is attributed to a fatality. The property damage measure is further disaggregated into four bands depending on the measured scope of the property damage inflicted by one incident. These bandings are shown in the table below, whereby incidents causing less than US$1 million are accorded a weight of 1, between $1 million and $1 billion, and more than $1 billion. A great majority of incidents are coded in the GTD as an 'unknown' level of property damage, thus scoring nil, with 'catastrophic' events being extremely rare.

Code Damage level
0 Unknown
1 Minor (likely < $1 million)
2 Major (likely between $1 million and $1 billion)
3 Catastrophic (likely > $1 billion)

Example of a country's GTI Score[edit]

To assign a relative number to how a country has been directly impacted by terrorism in any given year, for every incident recorded, the GTI calculates a weighted sum of all indicators. To illustrate, the table below depicts a hypothetical country's score for a given year:

Dimension Weight # of records for the given year Score
Total number of incidents 1 21 21
Total number of fatalities 3 36 108
Total number of injuries 0.5 53 26.5
Sum of property damages measure (depending on severity) 0-3 20 40
Total Raw Score 195.5

Economic impact of terrorism[edit]

The economic impact of terrorism is calculated using IEP’s cost of violence methodology.

The model includes both the direct and indirect costs, such as the lost life-time earnings, cost of medical treatments and property destruction from incidents of terrorism. The direct costs include those borne by the victim of the terrorist act and associated expenditure, such as medical spending. The indirect costs include lost productivity and earning as well as the psychological trauma to the victims, their families and friends.

The analysis presents conservative estimates of the economic impact of terrorism and does not include variables for which detailed appropriate data was not available. For instance, the analysis does not include the impact on business, the cost of fear from terrorism or the cost of counterterrorism.[4]

The global economic impact of terrorism reached US$89.6 billion in 2015, decreasing by 15 per cent from its 2014 level.

There have been three peaks in the economic impact of terrorism since the year 2000 and they are linked to the three major waves of terrorism. The first large increase in the economic impact of terrorism happened in 2001, when the attacks of September 11 in New York City and Washington D.C. took place. The second peak was in 2007 at the height of the Iraq war. The 2007 increase is mainly attributed to al-Qa’ida affiliated terrorist groups and coincided with the coalition troop surge in Iraq. The third wave started in 2012 and is still continuing, with the economic impact of terrorism peaking at US$105.6 billion in 2014.[5] The increase in the last four years was mainly driven by increases in terrorism in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.[6]

Publications by year[edit]

Institute for Economics and Peace has published four editions of Global Terrorism Index to date. The fifth report is due to be launched in November 2017.[7][8][9][10]

2012[edit]

The first edition of Global Terrorism Index was published in 2012. The study covered analysis of 158 countries.[7]

The 2012 report found that the global impact of terrorism increased significantly from 2002 to 2007, reaching its peak in 2007, and subsequently plateauing. The biggest rise took place over the period from 2005 to 2007 when the majority of the global increase in terrorism was driven by events in Iraq. Four other countries also significantly contributed to the global rise with Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and the Philippines all experiencing increases, especially between 2007 and 2009.

Only 20 nations scored a zero for terrorist impact over the 2002-2011 period, indicating the impact of terror, while heavily concentrated in some places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, was widely distributed around the world.

The countries most heavily affected by terrorism in 2011 were, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Yemen.

2014[edit]

The second edition of Global Terrorism Index was published in November 2014. The study covered analysis of 162 countries.[8]

In 2013 terrorist activity increased substantially with the total number of deaths rising from 11,133 in 2012 to 17,958 in 2013, a 61 per cent increase. Over the same period, the number of countries that experienced more than 50 deaths rose from 15 to 24. This highlighted that not only was the intensity of terrorism increasing, its breadth was increasing as well.

The countries most heavily affected by terrorism in 2013 were, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria.

2015[edit]

A world map indicating the GTI by country (based on 2015 data)

The third edition of Global Terrorism Index was published in November 2015. The study covered analysis of 162 countries.[9]

Terrorist activity increased by 80 per cent in 2014 to its highest recorded level. The largest ever year-on-year increase in deaths from terrorism was recorded in 2014, rising from 18,111 in 2013 to 32,685 in 2014. The number of people who have died from terrorist activity has increased nine-fold since the year 2000. [11]

The rise in terrorism can largely be attributed to two groups: ISIS; and Boko Haram, the Nigerian jihadist group that pledged allegiance to ISIS in March of 2015. Combined, these groups were responsible for 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in 2014.[12]

The countries most heavily affected by terrorism in 2014 were, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria.

2016[edit]

A world map indicating the GTI by country (2016)

The fourth edition of Global Terrorism Index was published in November 2016. The study covered analysis of 163 countries.

In OECD member countries, deaths from terrorism dramatically increased in 2015, rising by 650 per cent when compared to 2014. Twenty-one of the 34 OECD countries experienced at least one terrorist attack with the majority of deaths occurring in Turkey and France. [13]

GTI ranks and scores, 2016
Rank[10][14] Country Score Change in score
(2015 to 2016)
1  Iraq 9.96 Positive decrease −0.04
2  Afghanistan 9.444 Negative increase 0.229
3  Nigeria 9.314 Negative increase 0.075
4  Pakistan 8.613 Positive decrease −0.027
5  Syria 8.587 Negative increase 0.458
6  Yemen 8.076 Negative increase 0.607
7  Somalia 7.548 Negative increase 0.012
8  India 7.484 Positive decrease −0.059
9  Egypt 7.328 Negative increase 0.751
10  Libya 7.283 Negative increase 0.228
11  Ukraine 7.132 Negative increase 0.094
12  Philippines 7.098 Negative increase 0.071
13  Cameroon 7.002 Negative increase 0.504
14  Turkey 6.738 Negative increase 1.272
15  Thailand 6.706 Positive decrease −0.249
16  Niger 6.682 Negative increase 3.474
17  Democratic Republic of the Congo 6.633 Negative increase 0.209
18  Sudan 6.66 Steady 0
19  Kenya 6.578 Positive decrease −0.04
20  Central African Republic 6.518 Positive decrease −0.229
21  South Sudan 6.497 Positive decrease −0.273
22  Bangladesh 6.479 Negative increase 0.959
23  China 6.108 Positive decrease −0.206
24  Lebanon 6.068 Positive decrease −0.122
25  Mali 6.03 Negative increase 0.347
26  Colombia 5.954 Positive decrease −0.197
27  Chad 5.83 Negative increase 3.663
28  Palestine 5.659 Negative increase 0.658
29  France 5.603 Negative increase 2.02
30  Russia 5.43 Positive decrease −0.623
31  Burundi 5.417 Negative increase 2.156
32  Saudi Arabia 5.404 Negative increase 1.678
33  Israel 5.248 Positive decrease −0.302
34  United Kingdom 5.08 Negative increase 0.012
35  Tunisia 4.963 Negative increase 1.452
36  United States 4.877 Negative increase 0.358
37  Kuwait 4.449 Negative increase 4.43
38  Indonesia 4.429 Positive decrease −0.027
39    Nepal 4.415 Negative increase 0.063
40  Uganda 4.327 Positive decrease −0.615
41  Germany 4.308 Negative increase 1.582
42  Algeria 4.282 Positive decrease −0.377
43  Greece 4.218 Positive decrease −0.011
44  Bahrain 4.206 Positive decrease −0.299
45  Myanmar 4.167 Negative increase 0.364
46  Sweden 3.984 Negative increase 1.858
47  Iran 3.949 Positive decrease −0.226
48  Paraguay 3.84 Negative increase 0.286
49  Tanzania 3.832 Positive decrease −0.125
50  Mexico 3.723 Positive decrease −0.129
51  Mozambique 3.536 Positive decrease −0.551
52  South Africa 3.531 Negative increase 1.676
53  Sri Lanka 3.486 Positive decrease −0.194
54  Ethiopia 3.454 Positive decrease −0.007
55  Ireland 3.429 Negative increase 0.1
56  Tajikistan 3.086 Negative increase 1.368
57  Peru 2.984 Positive decrease −0.046
58  Jordan 2.858 Negative increase 1.363
59  Australia 2.742 Positive decrease −0.026
60  Chile 2.699 Positive decrease −0.659
61  Malaysia 2.691 Positive decrease −0.341
62  Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.675 Negative increase 1.455
63  Burkina Faso 2.623 Negative increase 2.316
64  Senegal 2.598 Positive decrease −0.638
65  Rwanda 2.589 Positive decrease −0.726
66  Canada 2.518 Positive decrease −0.084
67  Japan 2.447 Negative increase 2.447
68  Finland 2.377 Negative increase 2.377
69  Italy 2.363 Positive decrease −0.205
70  Kosovo 2.205 Positive decrease −0.357
71  Czech Republic 2.179 Negative increase 0.25
72  Ivory Coast 2.177 Positive decrease −0.752
73  Denmark 2.152 Negative increase 2.061
74  Nicaragua 2.093 Positive decrease −0.656
75  Norway 2.077 Positive decrease −0.656
76  Cyprus 2.04 Positive decrease −0.301
77  Venezuela 1.998 Negative increase 0.357
78  Macedonia 1.86 Negative increase 0.02
79  Djibouti 1.78 Positive decrease −0.691
80  Brazil 1.74 Positive decrease −0.306
81  Madagascar 1.671 Positive decrease −0.67
82  Bulgaria 1.631 Positive decrease −0.38
83  Dominican Republic 1.562 Positive decrease −0.649
84  Kyrgyzstan 1.445 Negative increase 0.134
85  Guinea 1.403 Negative increase 0.942
86  Belarus 1.357 Positive decrease −0.698
87  Georgia 1.257 Positive decrease −0.677
88  Belgium 1.245 Positive decrease −0.684
89  Spain 1.203 Positive decrease −0.701
90  Honduras 1.144 Positive decrease −0.666
90  Guatemala 1.144 Positive decrease −0.666
92  Albania 1.103 Positive decrease −0.498
92  Estonia 1.103 Negative increase 1.026
94  Kazakhstan 0.934 Positive decrease −0.658
95  Morocco 0.892 Positive decrease −0.445
95  Lesotho 0.892 Negative increase 0.892
97  Netherlands 0.864 Negative increase 0.586
98  Ecuador 0.793 Negative increase 0.313
99  Laos 0.695 Negative increase 0.657
100  Eritrea 0.534 Positive decrease −1.082
101  Argentina 0.499 Positive decrease −0.491
101  Trinidad and Tobago 0.499 Positive decrease −0.28
103  United Arab Emirates 0.422 Positive decrease −0.635
104  Zimbabwe 0.413 Positive decrease −0.61
105  Republic of the Congo 0.365 Positive decrease −0.47
106  Azerbaijan 0.346 Positive decrease −0.433
106  Ghana 0.346 Positive decrease −0.433
108   Switzerland 0.288 Positive decrease −0.323
108  Armenia 0.288 Negative increase 0.173
110  Iceland 0.25 Positive decrease −0.249
110  Liberia 0.25 Positive decrease −0.249
112  Hungary 0.23 Positive decrease −0.231
112  New Zealand 0.23 Positive decrease −0.231
112  South Korea 0.23 Negative increase 0.23
112  Qatar 0.23 Negative increase 0.23
116  Austria 0.182 Positive decrease −0.183
117  Montenegro 0.154 Positive decrease −0.153
117  Uzbekistan 0.154 Negative increase 0.154
119  Bhutan 0.115 Positive decrease −0.115
119  Jamaica 0.115 Positive decrease −0.115
121  Serbia 0.086 Positive decrease −0.135
122  Guinea-Bissau 0.077 Positive decrease −0.077
122  Cambodia 0.077 Positive decrease −0.077
122  Taiwan 0.077 Positive decrease −0.077
125  Mauritania 0.067 Positive decrease −0.125
126  Portugal 0.058 Positive decrease −0.057
126  Croatia 0.058 Positive decrease −0.057
128  Bolivia 0.038 Positive decrease −0.039
129  Moldova 0.019 Positive decrease −0.019
130  Angola 0 Positive decrease −0.168
130  Benin 0 Steady 0
130  Botswana 0 Steady 0
130  Costa Rica 0 Steady 0
130  Cuba 0 Steady 0
130  Gabon 0 Steady 0
130  Gambia 0 Steady 0
130  Equatorial Guinea 0 Steady 0
130  Guyana 0 Steady 0
130  Haiti 0 Steady 0
130  Lithuania 0 Steady 0
130  Latvia 0 Steady 0
130  Mauritius 0 Steady 0
130  Malawi 0 Steady 0
130  Mongolia 0 Steady 0
130  Namibia 0 Steady 0
130  North Korea 0 Steady 0
130  Oman 0 Steady 0
130  Panama 0 Steady 0
130  Papua New Guinea 0 Steady 0
130  Poland 0 Steady 0
130  Romania 0 Steady 0
130  Sierra Leone 0 Steady 0
130  Singapore 0 Steady 0
130  El Salvador 0 Steady 0
130  Slovakia 0 Steady 0
130  Slovenia 0 Steady 0
130  Swaziland 0 Steady 0
130  Togo 0 Steady 0
130  Turkmenistan 0 Steady 0
130  Timor-Leste 0 Steady 0
130  Uruguay 0 Steady 0
130  Vietnam 0 Steady 0
130  Zambia 0 Steady 0

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "About the GTI". p. Vision of Humanity. Retrieved 11 February 2013. 
  2. ^ "Data Collection Methodology". www.start.umd.edu. Retrieved 2017-07-13. 
  3. ^ https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/Codebook.pdf
  4. ^ "Global Terrorism Index 2016". ReliefWeb. 2016-11-17. Retrieved 2017-07-13. 
  5. ^ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/what-is-the-economic-impact-of-terrorism/
  6. ^ [1]
  7. ^ a b "2012 Global Terrorism Index: Capturing the Impact of Terrorism from 2002 – 2011" (PDF). Institute for Economics & Peace (published 4 December 2012). n.d. ISBN 978-0-9874448-5-1. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 April 2017. Retrieved 11 April 2017 – via ReliefWeb. 
  8. ^ a b "Global Terrorism Index 2014: Measuring And Understanding The Impact Of Terrorism" (PDF). Institute for Economics & Peace (published 16 November 2014). November 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 April 2017. Retrieved 11 April 2017. 
  9. ^ a b "Global Terrorism Index 2015: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism" (PDF). Institute for Economics & Peace (published 17 November 2015). November 2015. ISBN 978-0-9942456-4-9. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 April 2017. Retrieved 11 April 2017. 
  10. ^ a b "Global Terrorism Index 2016" (PDF). Institute for Economics & Peace. November 2016. pp. 94–95. ISBN 978-0-9942456-4-9. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 April 2017. Retrieved 10 April 2017. 
  11. ^ Bender, Jeremy (2015-11-19). "This map shows how terrorism has spiked across the world over the past year". Business Insider Australia. Retrieved 2017-07-13. 
  12. ^ "The measure of terror: the 2015 Global Terrorism Index | The Strategist". The Strategist. 2015-12-09. Retrieved 2017-07-13. 
  13. ^ "The 10 developed countries that have suffered the most deaths from terrorism". The Independent. 2016-11-15. Retrieved 2017-07-13. 
  14. ^ "Global Terrorism Index Report". Vision of Humanity. Institute for Economics & Peace. 

External links[edit]