September 2015 Greek legislative election

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September 2015 Greek legislative election

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All 300 seats of the Hellenic Parliament
151 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered9,840,525 Decrease1.1%
Turnout5,566,295 (56.6%)
Decrease7.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Alexis Tsipras Vangelis Meimarakis Michaloliakos Nikolaos GD b.jpg
Leader Alexis Tsipras Vangelis Meimarakis Nikolaos Michaloliakos
Party SYRIZA ND ΧΑ
Leader since 9 February 2008 5 July 2015 1 November 1993
Leader's seat Heraklion Athens B Athens A
Last election 149 seats, 36.3% 76 seats, 27.8% 17 seats, 6.3%
Seats won 145 75 18
Seat change Decrease4 Decrease1 Increase1
Popular vote 1,926,526 1,526,400 379,722
Percentage 35.5% 28.1% 7.0%
Swing Decrease0.8 pp Increase0.3 pp Increase0.7 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Fofi Gennimata Dimitris Koutsoumpas Stavros Theodorakis
Leader Fofi Gennimata Dimitris Koutsoumpas Stavros Theodorakis
Party PASOK–DIMAR KKE Potami
Leader since 14 June 2015 14 April 2013 26 February 2014
Leader's seat Athens B Athens B Thessaloniki A
Last election 13 seats, 5.2%[a] 15 seats, 5.5% 17 seats, 6.1%
Seats won 17 15 11
Seat change Increase4 ±0 Decrease6
Popular vote 341,732 301,684 222,349
Percentage 6.3% 5.6% 4.1%
Swing Increase1.1 pp Increase0.1 pp Decrease2.0 pp

  Seventh party Eighth party
  Panos Kammenos Vassilis Leventis 2015 (cropped).jpg
Leader Panos Kammenos Vassilis Leventis
Party ANEL EK
Leader since 24 February 2012 2 March 1992
Leader's seat Athens B Athens B
Last election 13 seats, 4.8% 0 seats, 1.8%
Seats won 10 9
Seat change Decrease3 Increase9
Popular vote 200,532 186,644
Percentage 3.7% 3.4%
Swing Decrease1.1 pp Increase1.6 pp

September 2015 Greek legislative election - Vote Strength.svg
Map of electoral districts, showing the largest party by share of votes. Darker shades indicate stronger vote share.

Prime Minister before election

Vassiliki Thanou (interim)
Independent

Elected Prime Minister

Alexis Tsipras
SYRIZA

The September 2015 Greek legislative election was held in Greece on Sunday, 20 September, following Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' announced resignation on 20 August.[1] At stake were all 300 seats in the Hellenic Parliament. This was a snap election, the sixth since 2007, since new elections were not due until February 2019.[2]

The election resulted in an unexpectedly-large victory for Alexis Tsipras' Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), which fell just six seats short of an absolute majority and was able to reform its coalition government with the right-wing Independent Greeks (ANEL). Opposition center-right New Democracy (ND) remained stagnant at 28% and 75 seats, despite pre-election opinion polls predicting a tie with Syriza or even opening the possibility of a ND government. Far-right Golden Dawn (XA) remained the third political force in the country rising slightly to 7%, while the PASOK-DIMAR Democratic Coalition rose to 4th place nationally, as a result of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) failure to increase its vote tally and Potami's collapse. The centrist EK entered Parliament for the first time in history, while Syriza-splinter group Popular Unity fell short of the required 3% threshold and did not win parliamentary representation.

Turnout was exceptionally low at 56.6%, the lowest ever recorded in a Greek legislative election since the restoration of democracy in 1974. Post-election analysis determined that voters' apathy and disaffection with politics and weariness after being continuously called to the polls (this election marked the third vote throughout 2015, after the January 2015 election and the July 2015 referendum) were the most likely causes for the low turnout.[3]

Background[edit]

Third bailout agreement[edit]

Several days after the bailout referendum, on 12 July 2015, the Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras came to an agreement with lenders for a new ESM program. Greece will receive a loan of up to €86 billion, which will be received gradually from 2015 until June 2018, including a buffer of up to €25 billion for the banking sector. In return, Greece will have to streamline the VAT system and broaden the tax base to increase revenue, reform the pension system, safeguard the full legal independence of the Hellenic Statistical Authority, automatically cut public spending to generate primary surpluses, reform justice with a view to accelerate the judicial process and reduce costs, implement all OECD toolkit I recommendations, modernise labour market legislation, modernise and strengthen the Greek administration, revoke the laws passed by the Tsipras government counter to the February 20 agreement—except for the one concerning the "humanitarian crisis"— or identify clear compensatory equivalents for the vested rights that were subsequently created (e.g. for the rehiring of fired public servants), recapitalize the banks, and privatize 50 billion of state assets.[4] To help support growth and job creation in Greece up to 2020, the European Commission will help mobilise up to €35 billion to fund investment and economic activity, including in SMEs. The Investment Plan for Europe will also provide funding opportunities for Greece.[5]

On 14 August, after a rancorous all-night debate, the Hellenic Parliament backed the country's new bailout deal, although more than 40 MPs from Syriza either voted against the deal or abstained, and Tsipras had to rely on the support of three opposition parties: New Democracy, To Potami and PASOK.[6] Following the Parliament's decision, the Eurogroup welcomed the agreement between Greece and its lenders, and initiated the launching of the national procedures required for the approval of the new ESM program. These national procedures were concluded by 19 August, and Greece received the first disbursement of the initial tranche of up to €26 bn.[7]

Government's resignation and snap election[edit]

Although Tsipras passed the bailout agreement through the Parliament and did not face a no-confidence motion, the fact that 43 of Syriza's 149 MPs had either opposed the bailout or abstained meant that he had effectively lost his parliamentary majority. Therefore, on 20 August, following the first disbursement of the initial tranche of the third bailout agreement, Tsipras submitted the resignation of his government to Prokopis Pavlopoulos, the President of Greece. Tsipras asked Pavlopoulos for the earliest possible election date (20 September), and publicly argued that "the present Parliament cannot offer a government of majority or a national unity government." In a televised address to the Greek people, Tsipras recognised that he did not achieve the agreement he expected before the January elections. Following Tsipras' resignation, the Constitution required Pavlopoulos to ask the second- and third-largest party in Parliament to form a government.[8]

Some analysts' expectations that these two parties—and especially New Democracy—could waive their three-days exploratory mandate right to accelerate the procedures were not confirmed. Vangelis Meimarakis, the Leader of the Opposition, received the first exploratory mandate on 21 August, stating that he has the "political obligation and responsibility to exhaust all the options".[9] Failing to form a government, Meimarakis returned the mandate to the President on 24 August. The same day, Panagiotis Lafazanis, the president of the third-largest party in Parliament, the newly formed Popular Unity, was handed the third and final exploratory mandate. Popular Unity was founded on 21 August by 25 anti-austerity and anti-bailout MPs, who split from Syriza and were largely affiliated to the party's Left Platform.[10] After having failed to attract coalition partners for a new government, Lafazanis returned the mandate on 27 August. In a meeting with Pavlopoulos, Lafazanis asked the President to set a date for election no earlier than 27 September and to convene a council meeting of political leaders.[11] However, given that Syriza, the Independent Greeks and the Communist Party had made clear that they had no interest in participating in such a meeting, Pavlopoulos opted for entering into telephone consultations with each political leader individually. After the conclusion of these consultations, which proved to be fruitless, Pavlopoulos named Vassiliki Thanou-Christophilou, President of the Court of Cassation (Areios Pagos), as interim prime minister, with the task of leading Greece to the elections.[12] On 28 August, Pavlopoulos issued a presidential decree for the dissolution of the Parliament and the holding of a snap legislative election on 20 September 2015.[13] The President's decision not to convene the council meeting of political leaders and to call the elections earlier than 27 September was fiercely criticised by Lafazanis; in an official statement, Popular Unity called the President's actions "a raw and provocative violation of both the letter and the spirit of the Constitution". However, other prominent politicians of the Opposition, such as PASOK's Evangelos Venizelos, who is also a Professor of Constitutional Law, suggested that Pavlopoulos acted within the rules and without violating the Constitution.[14]

Electoral system[edit]

All voters are required to vote, with registration being automatic and voting being mandatory.[15] However, none of the legally existing penalties or sanctions[16] have ever been enforced.[17]

250 seats are distributed on the basis of proportional representation, with a threshold of 3% required for entry into parliament. Blank and invalid votes, as well as votes cast for parties that fall short of the 3% threshold, are disregarded for seat allocation purposes. 50 additional seats are awarded as a majority bonus to the party that wins a plurality of votes, with coalitions in that regard not being counted as an overall party but having their votes counted separately for each party in the coalition, according to the election law. Parliamentary majority is achieved by a party or coalition of parties that command at least one half plus one (151 out of 300) of total seats.

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary
Local regression trend line of poll results from 25 January to 20 September 2015, with each line corresponding to a political party.
Poll results

The tables below list nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. Polls that show their results without disregarding those respondents who were undecided or said they would abstain from voting (either physically or by voting blank) have been re-calculated by disregarding these numbers from the totals offered through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results. When available, seat projections are displayed below the percentages in a smaller font. 151 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Hellenic Parliament.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results[edit]

Results, showing the seats won by each party in each electoral district.
Summary of the 20 September 2015 Hellenic Parliament election results
Parliament of Greece September 2015.svg
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) 1,926,526 35.46 –0.88 145 –4
New Democracy (ND) 1,526,400 28.09 +0.28 75 –1
Popular Association–Golden Dawn (ΧΑ) 379,722 6.99 +0.71 18 +1
Democratic Coalition (PASOKDIMAR)[a] 341,732 6.29 +1.13 17 +4
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) 301,684 5.55 +0.08 15 ±0
The River (Potami) 222,349 4.09 –1.96 11 –6
Independent Greeks–National Patriotic Alliance (ANEL) 200,532 3.69 –1.06 10 –3
Union of Centrists (EK) 186,644 3.44 +1.65 9 +9
Popular Unity (LAE) 155,320 2.86 New 0 ±0
Greek Anticapitalist LeftWorkers Revolutionary Party (ANTARSYA–EEK) 46,183 0.85 +0.17 0 ±0
United Popular Front (EPAM) 41,626 0.77 New 0 ±0
Society (Koinonia) 35,594 0.65 New 0 ±0
Recreate Greece (DX) 28,909 0.53 New 0 ±0
Democrats–Society of Values–Pirate Party of Greece (D–KA–KPE) 15,282 0.28 New 0 ±0
Marxist–Leninist Communist Parties of Greece (KKE (m–l)/M–L KKE) 8,873 0.16 +0.03 0 ±0
Patriotic Union–Greek Popular Gathering (ELAS) 6,070 0.11 +0.03 0 ±0
Greek People's Democratic Liberation (ELLADA) 4,421 0.08 +0.05 0 ±0
Organisation of Communist Internationalists of Greece (OKDE) 2,433 0.04 +0.01 0 ±0
Organisation for the Reconstruction of the KKE (OAKKE) 2,230 0.04 New 0 ±0
Independent candidates 846 0.02 ±0.00 0 ±0
Total 5,433,376 100.00 300 ±0
Valid votes 5,433,376 97.58 –0.06
Invalid ballots 69,884 1.26 –0.55
Blank ballots 64,670 1.16 +0.61
Votes cast / turnout 5,567,930 56.16 –7.46
Abstentions 4,480,233 43.84 +7.46
Registered voters 9,913,609
Source: Ministry of Interior
Vote share
SYRIZA
35.46%
ND
28.10%
ΧΑ
6.99%
PASOK-DIMAR
6.28%
KKE
5.55%
Potami
4.09%
ANEL
3.69%
EK
3.43%
LAE
2.86%
Others
3.55%
Parliamentary seats
SYRIZA
48.33%
ND
25.00%
ΧΑ
6.00%
PASOK-DIMAR
5.67%
KKE
5.00%
Potami
3.67%
ANEL
3.33%
EK
3.00%

Gallagher index[edit]

The Gallagher index is a measurement of how faithful to the popular vote a given electoral result is, with 0 being completely proportional. The September 2015 election gave a Gallagher index of 10.45 and despite the fact that Greece uses a system of semi-proportional representation, this result is closer to the Gallagher indexes of single member-district systems such as Australia (11.34) and Canada (12.02). This is due to the majority bonus of 50 seats awarded to the election winner (Syriza in this case). Without the majority bonus, the Gallagher index would have been halved at 5.09.

party % of votes % of seats difference difference
squared
Syriza 35.46 48.33 +12.87 165.72
New Democracy 28.09 25.00 –3.09 9.55
Golden Dawn 6.99 6.00 –0.99 0.98
Democratic Alignment (PASOKDIMAR) 6.29 5.67 –0.62 0.39
Communist Party of Greece 5.55 5.00 –0.55 0.30
The River 4.09 3.67 –0.42 0.18
Independent Greeks 3.69 3.33 –0.36 0.13
Union of Centrists 3.44 3.00 –0.44 0.19
All other parties 6.40 0.00 –6.40 40.96
total of squares of differences 218.40
total / 2 109.20
square root of (total / 2) 10.45

Aftermath[edit]

The governing party SYRIZA won the largest number of seats but fell short of an outright majority. However, the party resurrected its coalition with the right-wing Independent Greeks, a minor party with which it had already formed a government after the January 2015 election. Centre-right New Democracy took the second-largest vote share, while far-right Golden Dawn was a fairly distant third. Popular Unity, the party formed by 26 MPs who had defected from SYRIZA in protest at the bailout, failed to reach the 3% threshold, and thus did not get any seats.

SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras hailed the result as a "victory of the people". He returned to the premiership after resigning earlier in the summer in order to force the new election. He told supporters in Athens that Greece would "continue the struggle we began seven months ago" when SYRIZA was first elected to government. New Democracy leader Vangelis Meimarakis swiftly conceded after the election results began coming in, calling upon Tsipras "to create the government which is needed".[144] Tsipras' former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis criticised the election result as "the 'legalisation' of the capitulation", referring to the bailout deal negotiated between Athens and European creditors during the summer.[145]

The margin of SYRIZA's "decisive" victory was a surprise, with many pundits and analysts predicting a closer race with New Democracy.[144][145] Voter turnout was 7 pp lower than it had been in January.[145]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Democratic Coalition results are compared to the combined totals for PASOK and DIMAR in the January 2015 election.

References[edit]

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