Hessian state election, 2018

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Hesse state election, 2018

← 2013 28 October 2018

All 110 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, as well as 8 overhang and 19 leveling seats
69 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
  MJK00898 Volker Bouffier.jpg 2016-02-04 Tarek Al-Wazir - MdL Hessen - 3647-2.jpg
2016-02-04 Priska Hinz - Staatsministerin im Umweltministerium Hessen - 3535-2.jpg
MJK00857 Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel.jpg
Leader Volker Bouffier Tarek Al-Wazir
Priska Hinz
Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel
Party CDU Green SPD
Last election 47 seats, 38.3% 14 seats, 11.1% 37 seats, 30.7%
Seats before 47 13 37
Seats won 40 29 29
Seat change Decrease7 Increase16 Decrease8
Popular vote 776,254 570,260 570,166
Percentage 27.0% 19.8% 19.8%
Swing Decrease11.3% Increase8.7% Decrease10.9%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  DSC02691 AfD in Neuhof (2) Rainer Rahn.jpg René Rock (MdL Hessen 2014-01-18).jpg 2018-06-09 Bundesparteitag Die Linke 2018 in Leipzig by Sandro Halank–132.jpg
DSC02660 wir sind mehr Fulda 2018 (14) Jan Schalauske.jpg
Leader Rainer Rahn René Rock Janine Wissler
Jan Schalauske
Party AfD FDP Left
Last election 4.1% 6 seats, 5.0% 6 seats, 5.2%
Seats before - 6 6
Seats won 19 11 9
Seat change Increase19 Increase5 Increase3
Popular vote 378,376 215,642 181,263
Percentage 13.1% 7.5% 6.3%
Swing Increase9.0% Increase2.5% Increase1.1%

Minister-President before election

Volker Bouffier
CDU

Elected Minister-President

TBD

A state election was held in Hesse on 28 October 2018.[1]

It followed the vote in Bavaria two weeks earlier. Like in Bavaria, the parties of Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal government coalition − CDU and SPD − lost more than 20 percentage points combined (CDU -11.3%, SPD -10.9%), while the Hessian CDU's coalition partner The Greens and the opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the biggest increases in votes compared to the last election in 2013. The AfD's gains (+9%) were slightly larger than those of The Greens (+8.7%), making it the greatest net winner by additional votes and seats. Smaller parties also made gains. Turn-out decreased by 5.9 points to 67.3%.[2]

Despite suffering the biggest net loss of votes, the Christian Democratic Union maintained its leading position. The Greens beat the Social Democrats by 94 votes and became the second-strongest party. AfD, which ran for the first time for a state legislature in Hesse in 2013 and failed to win any seats, was the only new addition to the Hessian Landtag, and, by entering it, became present in all German state legislatures, a trait shared only by SPD and CDU/CSU, though the latter are technically two separate parties.

Like the preceding Bavarian election, the election in Hesse was overshadowed by federal politics and the poor condition of the German coalition government after two government crises, the "asylum quarrel" in June/July and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September.[3][4] As a consequence of the severe losses, the day after the election, chancellor Angela Merkel announced that that she will not seek re-election as party head at the party convention in Hamburg in early December and as German chancellor in 2021.[5]

Background[edit]

The incumbent Hesse government coalition consisted of CDU and the Greens.

The regional election for Hesse, along with the Bavarian state election held just two weeks before, was widely seen as a test for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition of Angela Merkel's fourth federal cabinet.[6]

Campaigns[edit]

Opinion polling[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD Grüne Linke FDP AfD Others Lead
2018 state election 28 Oct 2018 27.0 19.8 19.8 6.3 7.5 13.1 6.5 7.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–25 Oct 2018 1,025 28 20 20 8 8 12 4 8
Civey 18–24 Oct 2018 4,467 27.0 22.0 18.5 7.5 8.0 13.0 4.0 5.0
INSA 18–22 Oct 2018 1,004 26 21 21 8 7 13 4 5
Infratest dimap 16–17 Oct 2018 1,002 26 21 20 8 9 12 4 5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Oct 2018 1,035 26 20 22 8 8 12 4 4
Civey 2–12 Oct 2018 4,549 28.5 24.9 18.2 7.5 5.6 11.8 3.5 3.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24 Sep–1 Oct 2018 1,038 29 23 18 8 6 13 3 6
Civey 19–26 Sep 2018 4,509 28.6 23.0 15.8 8.8 7.6 12.4 3.8 5.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Sep 2018 1,039 32 25 15 8 6 11 3 7
Infratest dimap 13–19 Sep 2018 1,000 28 23 17 8 7 14 3 5
INSA 3–6 Sep 2018 1,039 29 24 14 8 7 14 4 5
Civey 14–30 Aug 2018 4,532 31.1 23.9 13.4 7.9 7.1 12.7 3.9 7.2
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2018 1,003 31 22 14 7 7 15 4 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–11 Jun 2018 1,049 31 25 13 8 8 11 4 6
INSA 9–16 May 2018 1,067 33 24 13 8 7 11 4 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–21 Mar 2018 1,011 31 26 13 8 7 10 5 5
Allensbach 19 Dec 2017–31 Jan 2018 760 31 26 12 7 9 11 ? 5
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,035 33 23 14 7 8 10 5 10
Infratest dimap 9–16 Jan 2018 1,006 31 25 13 8 8 12 3 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 30.9 23.5 9.7 8.1 11.5 11.9 4.4 7.3
Infratest dimap 5–10 Jan 2017 1,003 32 24 14 8 6 14 2 8
dimap 15–22 Aug 2016 1,000 36 27 13 6 4 9 5 9
Forsa 1–8 Apr 2016 1,004 33 27 11 6 7 10 6 6
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 2016 1,000 34 26 11 8 5 12 4 8
Forsa 17–26 Aug 2015 1,009 38 28 13 5 5 4 7 14
dimap 6–13 Jul 2015 1,003 41 27 14 6 6 2 4 14
dimap 10–14 Dec 2014 1,000 38 27 16 7 2 5 5 11
2014 European election 25 May 2014 30.6 30.3 12.9 5.6 4.1 9.1 7.3 0.3
Forsa 18–27 Feb 2014 1,002 39 27 12 7 5 5 5 12
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 39.2 28.8 9.9 6.0 5.6 5.6 4.9 10.4
2013 state election 22 Sep 2013 38.3 30.7 11.1 5.2 5.0 4.1 5.6 7.6


Results[edit]

Summary of the 28 October 2018 election results for the Hessian Landtag[citation needed]
Landtag of Hesse 2018.svg
Party Ideology Votes Votes % (change) Seats (change) Seats % (change)
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Christian democracy 776,254 27.0% −11.3pp 40 −7 29.2% -13.5pp
Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) Green politics 570,260 19.8% +8.9pp 29 +16 21.2% +9.4pp
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Social democracy 570,166 19.8% −10.9pp 29 −8 21.2% -12.4pp
Alternative for Germany (AfD) German nationalism 378,376 13.1% +9.0pp 19 +19 13.9% +13.9pp
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Liberalism 215,642 7.5% +1.8pp 11 +5 8.0% +2.5pp
The Left (Die Linke) Democratic socialism 181,263 6.3% +1.1pp 9 +3 6.6% +1.1pp
Others 187,341 6.5% 0 ±0 0%
Total 2,879,302 100.0% 137 +28 100.0%

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm#termine-2018-01-23
  2. ^ https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/landesergebnis Official result
  3. ^ Was die Hessenwahl für die Bundespolitik bedeutet, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 28 October 2018
  4. ^ Schicksalswahl für Merkels Koalition, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 26 October 2018
  5. ^ Angela Merkel bietet Verzicht auf Parteivorsitz an, Die Zeit, 29 October 2018
  6. ^ "Hesse election: Merkel facing double trouble in German vote". BBC News. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 28 October 2018.

External links[edit]

Media related to Hesse state election 2018 at Wikimedia Commons