History and use of instant-runoff voting

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Instant-runoff voting (IRV) is a voting method used in single-seat elections with more than two candidates. Instead of voting only for a single candidate, voters in IRV elections can rank the candidates in order of preference. Ballots are initially counted for each elector's top choice, losing candidates are eliminated, and ballots for losing candidates are redistributed until one candidate is the top remaining choice of a majority of the voters. When the field is reduced to two, it has become an "instant runoff" that allows a comparison of the top two candidates head-to-head.

IRV more commonly known outside the US as the alternative vote or preferential voting, was devised around 1870 by the US architect W. R. Ware. Today it is in use at a national level to elect the Australian House of Representatives, the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, the President of Ireland and President of India. In Australia it is also used for elections to the legislative assemblies (lower houses) of all states and territories except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, and for the Tasmanian Legislative Council (upper house).

IRV is also used a number of municipal elections in Australia, the United States, United Kingdom and New Zealand. Because of its relationship to the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system, IRV is used for by-elections and elections with only a single winner (such as elections for the President of Ireland) in some jurisdictions that use STV for ordinary parliamentary elections, such as the Republic of Ireland and Scotland.

IRV is known by different names in the various countries in which it is used. It is also known as the 'Alternative Vote', 'Ranked Choice Voting', and 'Preferential Voting', although IRV is only one of a number of forms of preferential voting systems.

History[edit]

This method was considered by Condorcet as early as 1788, though only to condemn it, for its ability to eliminate a candidate preferred by a majority of voters.[1][2]

Instant-runoff voting is based on the Single Transferable Vote electoral system, developed by Hill in 1819, Hare in 1857, and Andrae in 1855. Unlike IRV, the Single Transferable Vote was designed as a form of proportional representation involving multi-seat constituencies, and today STV is used in a number of countries, including Australia, the Republic of Ireland and Malta.

It is also known as Ware's method, after William Robert Ware, the founder of the schools of architecture at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Columbia University,[3] who, while describing the Single Transferable Vote system in 1871, mentioned that it could also be used for single-winner elections.[4][5] IRV was adopted for the Australian House of Representatives in 1918 and has been used to elect the President of Ireland since the office came into being in 1937. It was introduced in Fiji in 1999 and in Papua New Guinea in 2007.

Use by country[edit]

Australia[edit]

IRV (in Australia called preferential voting) was introduced for House of Representatives elections in Australia after the Swan by-election in October 1918, when the conservative Country Party, representing small farmers, split the non-Labor vote in conservative country areas, allowing Labor candidates to win on a first-past-the-post vote then in place. The conservative Nationalist government of Billy Hughes introduced preferential voting to enable the Coalition parties to field candidates in the same electorates without putting Coalition seats at risk.[6] It was first used at the Corangamite by-election on 14 December 1918, and nationwide at the 1919 election.[7] Preferential voting continued to benefit the Coalition until the 1990 election, when for the first time the Labor Bob Hawke government obtained a net benefit from preferential voting.[8]

Ballot papers are marked with the order of preferences: 1, 2, 3, etc. Counting of the ballot papers proceeds and when no candidate receives 50% plus one vote of the first preference vote (candidates with a number one), the candidate with the fewest first preference votes is eliminated and that candidate's votes are distributed to the remaining candidates. The process continues until a candidate accumulates 50% plus one vote, or a simple majority. Counting will continue to finality, which results in what is referred to as the two-party preferred vote, which expresses the electorate's voting preference equivalent to a 2-person election of the two most popular candidates.[9] Most council (local government) elections also use the method, as do the lower house elections of four states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia), the sole house of one state (Queensland) and one territory (the Northern Territory) and the upper house of one other state (Tasmania).

A study of the 2007 federal election found that every House of Representatives electorate had at least four candidates, and the average number of candidates was seven. 76 candidates depended on preferences to win, which represented more than half of the 150 winners.[10]

Preferential voting is used for most state and local elections in Australia, but sometimes with optional preferential voting where voters are allowed to limit their number of rankings. The Australian Senate, the upper houses of four states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia), the lower house of one state (Tasmania) and the sole house of the Australian Capital Territory, use the single transferable vote.

Canada[edit]

Under the name 'preferential' or 'elimination ballot' or alternative vote,[11] IRV was used in the British Columbia's general elections of 1952 and 1953. IRV was initially brought in by the governing coalition consisting of the Liberal and Conservative parties. In the next election many CCF supporters chose the relatively unknown Social Credit Party, a minor party that had never held any seats in the British Columbia legislature, as their second choice. The Social Credit Party achieved an upset victory in the 1952 election, winning 19 seats in the 48-member legislature to 18 for the CCF, 6 for the Liberals and 4 for the Conservatives. The Socreds formed a short-lived minority government until the 1953 election, in which they won a majority of seats (28 of 48). After the 1953 election, the Liberal and renamed Progressive Conservative Parties were reduced to third parties in the province, and first-past-the-post was reinstated by the government.

It has never been used for federal elections but was also used for provincial elections in Alberta (1926–1955 in rural districts), and Manitoba (1927–1953).[12]

IRV is used for certain party and private elections in Canada, including such large-scale elections at the Canadian Wheat Board,[13] the 2006 Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leadership election, where it has generated high turnout,[14] and the 2011 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election. The Liberal Party of Canada had adopted IRV with a national primary for its leadership elections.[15]

In 2014, the Province of Ontario announced that municipalities would have the option to use IRV for local elections starting in 2018,[16] and authorizing legislation was passed in 2016.[17] London, Ontario became the first city to use ranked choice voting in 2018,[18] and Cambridge and Kingston will join in 2022.[19]

Instant-runoff voting is used in whole or in part to elect the leaders of the three largest federal political parties in Canada: the Liberal Party of Canada,[20] the Conservative Party of Canada, and the New Democratic Party, albeit the New Democratic Party uses a mixture of IRV and exhaustive voting, allowing each member to choose one format or the other for their vote (as was used in their 2017 leadership election). In 2013, members of the Liberal Party of Canada elected Justin Trudeau as party leader through IRV in a national leadership election.[21] The Conservative Party used IRV (where each of the party's 338 riding associations are weighted equally, regardless of how many members voted in each riding) to elect Erin O'Toole as party leader in 2020, Andrew Scheer in 2017, and Stephen Harper in 2004.

Czech Republic[edit]

IRV is used to elect leaders of the Green party.[22]

Hong Kong[edit]

IRV is used to elect a small number of functional constituencies of the Legislative Council of Hong Kong, all of which have very small electorates.

India[edit]

IRV is used in numerous electoral college environments, including the election of the President of India by the members of the Parliament of India and of the Vidhan Sabhas – the state legislatures.[23] The election is held with IRV, which in the Indian Constitution (Article 55) is called single transferable vote.

Ireland[edit]

All public elections in the Republic of Ireland are described as using the single transferable vote, or "proportional representation by the means of the single transferable vote".[24] In the case of single-winner elections STV reduces to IRV, although neither "instant runoff voting" nor "alternative vote" is a commonly used name in Ireland. All constituencies for Dáil, Seanad, MEP, and local elections are multi-member (STV). Single-winner (IRV) elections include: all presidential elections; single-vacancy[n 1] Dáil by-elections; all Seanad by-elections;[27] and three of the seven Údarás na Gaeltachta constituencies (1999–2012).[28][29] The Dáil elects a Taoiseach (prime minister) by majority motion, but since 2016 elects its Ceann Comhairle (speaker) by IRV ballot.[30] Local authorities elect their cathaoirleach (chairperson) by exhaustive ballot, "non-instant" runoff voting.[31] The Local Government Act 2019 provides for steps towards introducing directly elected mayors; the government's detailed proposal document implies IRV would be used to elect them.[32] Referendums in Ireland currently require a binary yes/no question; in 2018 the Citizens' Assembly recommended allowing multiple-choice referendums with the result determined via IRV.[33]

While most elections in the Republic of Ireland use the single transferable vote (STV),[34] in single-winner contests this reduces to IRV.[35] This is the case in all Presidential elections[35] and Seanad panel by-elections,[36] and most Dáil by-elections[35] In the rare event of multiple simultaneous vacancies in a single Dáil constituency, a single STV by-election may be held;[37] for Seanad panels, multiple IRV by-elections are held.[36]

New Zealand[edit]

The single transferable vote (STV), a multi-seat variation of IRV, is used for all district health board elections.[38] Starting in 2004, several New Zealand cities and local authorities began to use STV for their elections—including the nation's second largest city and capital Wellington and its fifth largest city Dunedin [39] Where electing a mayor directly, these cities used instant runoff voting. In 2007, for example, Wellington's mayor Kerry Prendergast defeated her 10 rivals on the 9th round of counting.[40] Other contested IRV races have included the 2010 Dunedin mayoral election and 2010 Wellington City mayoral election.

In the 1992 referendum on the voting method to elect members of the New Zealand House of Representatives, the alternative vote was one of the four alternative methods available (alongside MMP, STV and SM). It came third of the alternative methods (ahead of SM) with 6.6% of the vote. IRV, under the name preferential vote, was one of the four alternative methods choices presented in the 2011 voting method referendum, but the referendum resulted in New Zealanders choosing to keep their proportional method of representation instead, while IRV came last with 8.34%.

As of September 2013, seven authorities are elected with STV: Dunedin City Council, Greater Wellington Council, Kapiti Coast District Council, Marlborough District Council, Palmerston North City Council, Porirua City Council, and Wellington City Council.[38] Wellington upheld STV in a 2008 ballot measure.[41] Multi-member wards in these cities use STV.[42]

The New Zealand Labour Party in 2013 was using IRV to pick a new party leader.[43]

IRV (again under the name preferential vote[44]) was used on the initial ballot of the 2015–2016 New Zealand flag referendums for voters to rank their preferences about the five new flag options.

Papua New Guinea[edit]

A form of IRV has been used to elect members of parliament since last plurality voting election in 2002. Called "limited preferential voting" because voters are limited to ranking three candidates, the system has been credited with reducing election violence in a highly fractured political system.[45] IRV has been used since 2003 for the national parliament election, where voters are limited to ranking three candidates.[46][47]

United Kingdom[edit]

IRV is currently used in the United Kingdom for by-elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly and to local assemblies in Scotland, both of which use the single transferable vote method of proportional representation in regularly scheduled elections. It is used in its contingent vote form (also called the supplementary vote), for all direct elections for mayor in England, including in London.[48] It is used to fill vacancies within the House of Lords,[49][50] to elect the leaders of the Liberal Democrats[51] and the Labour Party[52] and for many private elections, including for Chancellor of Oxford University [53] and rectorial elections at the University of Edinburgh.[54] IRV was the electoral method available to select a replacement MEP by election for the Northern Ireland constituency of the European parliament, however now a party can co-opt a replacement without the need for a by-election.[55]

IRV has been debated vigorously in the country since the early 20th century. In 1917, for example, the Speaker's Conference advocated the adoption of IRV for 358 of the 569 constituencies in the UK, and STV for the rest; its intention was that STV would be used in densely populated urban areas but, in order to keep constituencies from being too large, IRV would be used in more sparsely populated rural areas. Although the House of Commons voted in favour of the proposals five times, the House of Lords rejected it until the nationwide effort was ultimately abandoned in parliament.

In 1921 the Government of Ireland Act established two home rule parliaments in Ireland–the Parliament of Northern Ireland and the Parliament of Southern Ireland–and while STV was used for regular elections to these bodies, IRV was used for by-elections. This combination of IRV and STV has been used in what is now the Republic of Ireland ever since. The Northern Ireland Parliament continued to use the combination until the late 1920s when it switched to the 'first past the post' plurality system. However, STV for regular elections, and IRV for by-elections, has been reintroduced and used there to elect devolved assemblies since the 1970s.

IRV is usually referred to in the UK as the 'Alternative Vote' or 'AV'. In 1998 the Jenkins Commission, charged by the government with suggesting an alternative system to plurality, devised a new system called the Alternative Vote Plus (AV+) for elections to the British Parliament. This involved a combination of party-list proportional representation and single seat constituencies elected under IRV. However no action has been taken on the Commission's report.

In March 2009 the government announced that it would run an inquiry into the use of IRV at future general elections,[56] and in February 2010 the House of Commons voted to hold a national referendum on AV.[57] The government's term expired before this legislation was approved, but in July 2010, newly elected Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg announced a referendum on AV,[58] subsequently held on 5 May 2011.[59] The proposal would have affected the way in which Members of Parliament are elected to the British House of Commons at Westminster. It was only the second national referendum ever to be held within the United Kingdom and the result of the referendum was a decisive rejection of the adoption of the alternative vote by a margin of 67.9% to 32.1% of voters on a national turnout of 42%.[60]

United States[edit]

Since 1912, IRV has been adopted and repealed in various United States jurisdictions.

Between 1912 and 1930, limited forms of RCV (typically with only two rankings[61]) were implemented and subsequently repealed in Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Since 2002, IRV has been adopted by more than a dozen cities, with some adoptions pending implementation.

Jurisdictions that have implemented and then repealed IRV include Ann Arbor, Michigan (1974–1976);[62] Pierce County, Washington (2006–2009);[63] Burlington, Vermont (2005–2010);[64] Aspen, Colorado (2007–2010);[65] and in North Carolina (2006–2013).

As of September 2013, American cities currently using IRV to elect at least one office include Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California; St. Paul, Minnesota; San Francisco, California; Takoma Park, Maryland; Berkeley, California; San Leandro, California; and Telluride, Colorado.[66]

San Francisco's system of IRV was challenged in federal court, but a unanimous panel of the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit upheld San Francisco's IRV law, finding that the plaintiff failed to establish that the City's chosen electoral system was unconstitutional.[67]

Private organizations in the U.S. that use IRV[68] include the Hugo Awards for science fiction,[69] the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in selection of the Oscar for Best Picture,[70] and more than fifty colleges and universities for student elections.[71]

Maine became the first U.S. state to approve IRV for its primary and general elections for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state legislature in a 2016 referendum.[72] The state supreme court ruled this method of voting was unconstitutional for state general elections, but this ruling did not affect primary and federal elections.[73] The state legislature attempted to repeal IRV for all elections unless the state constitution was amended, but this repeal was put on hold by a people's veto petition. The June 2018 primary election both used IRV to determine party candidates and Maine Question 1 passed, which blocked the repeal. Democrat Jared Golden became the first congressional candidate in the United States to win a general election as a result of IRV, defeating incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin in second round balloting for Maine's 2nd congressional district in 2018.[74] In the future, IRV will also be used for primary elections for federal elections and only primary elections for state offices. A bill passed in August 2019 will make Maine the first state to use IRV in presidential general elections in 2020, but use in presidential primaries has been delayed until 2024.[75]

Six states planned to use RCV in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters; Iowa and Nevada for absentee voters.[76] Rather than eliminating candidates until a single winner is chosen, voters' choices would be reallocated until all remaining candidates have at least 15%, the threshold to receive delegates to the convention.[77]

See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ If there are multiple vacancies simultaneously in a single constituency, then a single STV election is held to fill all.[25] This happened in two of the seven by-elections in the "mini general election" of 1925.[26]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Nanson, E. J. (1882). "Methods of election: Ware's Method". Transactions and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria. 19: 206. The method was, however, mentioned by Condorcet, but only to be condemned.
  2. ^ Condorcet, Jean-Antoine-Nicolas de Caritat (1788). On the Constitution and the Functions of Provincial Assemblies. Complete Works of Condorcet (in French). 13 (published 1804). p. 243. En effet, lorsqu'il y a plus de trois concurrents, le véritable vœu de la pluralité peut être pour un candidat qui n'ait eu aucune des voix dans le premier scrutin.
  3. ^ "William R. Ware Papers 1826-1914: Institute Archives & Special Collections: MIT". MIT Institute Archives & Special Collections. 2008-09-06. Archived from the original on 2008-09-06. Retrieved 2019-07-05.
  4. ^ Ware, William R. (1871). Application of Mr. Hare's system of voting to the nomination of overseers of Harvard College. OCLC 81791186. It is equally efficient whether one candidate is to be chosen, or a dozen.
  5. ^ Benjamin Reilly. "The Global Spread of Preferential Voting: Australian Institutional Imperialism" (PDF). FairVote.org. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
  6. ^ Green, Antony (2004). "History of Preferential Voting in Australia". Antony Green Election Guide: Federal Election 2004. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 2007-07-01.
  7. ^ "Australian Electoral History: Voting Methods". Australianpolitics.com. Archived from the original on 19 March 2011. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
  8. ^ "The Origin of Senate Group Ticket Voting, and it didn't come from the Major Parties".
  9. ^ "Australian Electoral Commission". Aec.gov.au. 23 April 2014. Retrieved 30 April 2014.
  10. ^ "International Snapshot: Australia 2007". fairvote.org. 2008-01-01. Retrieved 2011-05-27.
  11. ^ "Alternative voting of mixed-member proportional: What can we expect? Louis Massicotte, University of Montreal". Policy Options. July–August 2001. Archived from the original on 24 April 2014. Retrieved 23 April 2014.
  12. ^ Jansen, Harold J. (September 2004). "The Political Consequences of the Alternative Vote: Lessons from Western Canada. Harold J. Jansen, University of Lethbridge". Canadian Journal of Political Science. 37 (3). doi:10.1017/S0008423904030227.
  13. ^ 2006 CWB Election of Directors Archived January 6, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
  14. ^ "Canadian Wheat Board - 2002". Cwb.ca. 2002-12-16. Archived from the original on 2011-01-06. Retrieved 2011-01-31.
  15. ^ Zehr, Garrett (2 May 2009). "Liberals adopt one-member, one-vote election system :: The Hook". Thetyee.ca. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  16. ^ Benzie, Robert (30 September 2014). "Ranked ballot a priority for 2018 civic elections, Kathleen Wynne says". The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on 21 February 2017.
  17. ^ Municipal Elections Modernization Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 15, s. 30
  18. ^ Maloney, Patrick (2 May 2017). "Electoral reform: City council votes 9–5 to scrap first-past-the-post voting and make London a Canadian trailblazer". London Free Press.
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  23. ^ swapnil (29 October 2010). "IAS OUR DREAM: Presidents of India, Rashtrapati Bhavan, Trivia". Swapsushias.blogspot.com. Retrieved 3 December 2010.
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  25. ^ "Electoral Act 1992, sec 39(3)". electronic Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 31 March 2019.; replacing "Electoral Act 1963, sec 12(3)". electronic Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 31 March 2019.; replacing "Electoral Act 1923, sec 54(3)". electronic Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 31 March 2019..
  26. ^ Took, Christopher; Donnelly, Seán. "Dáil By Elections". Elections Ireland. Nos 13 and 16. Retrieved 30 March 2019.
  27. ^ "Seanad Electoral (Panel Members) Act, 1947 s.58". electronic Irish Statute Book (eISB). Retrieved 2 April 2019. replacing "Seanad Electoral (Panel Members) (Bye-Elections) Act, 1940 s.8". electronic Irish Statute Book (eISB). Retrieved 30 March 2019.
  28. ^ "Údarás na Gaeltachta (Amendment) (No. 2) Act, 1999, Section 15". Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 18 March 2016.
  29. ^ "Gaeltacht Act 2012, Schedule". Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 18 March 2016.
  30. ^ Dáil Éireann (17 January 2017). "Standing Orders Relative to Public Business; together with Oireachtas Library & Research Service Rules" (PDF) (in English and Irish). Oireachtas. p. 3; S.O. 6(10)(g). Retrieved 31 March 2019. The ballot shall be counted under the Proportional Representation [sic] Single Transferable Vote (PRSTV) system.
  31. ^ "Local Government Act 2001 [as amended] s.37". Revised Acts. Dublin: Law Reform Commission. 31 January 2019. Retrieved 9 April 2019.
  32. ^ "Directly Elected Mayors with Executive Functions: Detailed Policy Proposals" (PDF). Dublin: Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government. 2 April 2019. p. 39. Retrieved 5 April 2019. Mayoral candidates could have a proportion of their electoral expenses reimbursed upon achieving a percentage of the quota of votes.
  33. ^ "Manner in which referenda are held". Citizens' Assembly. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
  34. ^ Franchise Section (February 2011). "Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Electoral System" (PDF). Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2011. Retrieved 29 April 2011.
  35. ^ a b c Muckerras, Malcolm; William Muley (1998). "Preferential Voting in Australia, Ireland and Malta" (PDF). Griffith Law Review. 7 (2): 225–248.
  36. ^ a b Seanad Electoral (Panel Members) Act, 1947 §58: Provision applicable where more than one casual vacancy. Irish Statute Book
  37. ^ Electoral Act, 1992 §39(3) Irish Statute Book
  38. ^ a b "Single Transferable Vote". Stv.govt.nz. 2004-10-05. Retrieved 2013-09-09.
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  53. ^ "Oxford University Gazette: Election of Chancellor of the University (supplement)". Ox.ac.uk. Retrieved 2011-01-31.
  54. ^ The University of Edinburgh - Rectorial Election Archived January 11, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  55. ^ System for replacing MEPs changed BBC Northern Ireland
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  59. ^ Norman Smith Chief political correspondent, BBC Radio 4 (2 July 2010). "Voting reform referendum planned for next May". BBC. Retrieved 3 October 2010.
  60. ^ The Electoral Commission Referendum result
  61. ^ Hoag, Clarence Gilbert (1914). Effective Voting: An Article on Preferential Voting and Proportional Representation. U.S. Government Printing Office.
  62. ^ Walter, Benjamin (2001-08-26). "Instant Runoff Voting: History in Ann Arbor, Michigan". Green Party of Michigan. Archived from the original on September 17, 2008. Retrieved 2018-01-02.
  63. ^ "Pierce voters nix 'ranked-choice voting' – From Our Corner". blogs.sos.wa.gov. November 10, 2009. Retrieved 2018-01-02.
  64. ^ McCrea, Lynne (2010-03-03). "Burlington Voters Repeal Instant Runoff Voting". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved 2018-01-02.
  65. ^ Wackerle, Curtis (November 3, 2010). "City voters repeal IRV". Aspen Daily News. Retrieved 2018-01-02.
  66. ^ "InstantRunoff.com - In the United States". www.instantrunoff.com.
  67. ^ Dudum v. Arntz, 640 F.3d 1098 (9th Cir. 2011)
  68. ^ "Organizations & Corporations". FairVote. 17 March 2001. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  69. ^ "Oscars Copy Hugos". The Hugo Awards. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  70. ^ "Preferential Voting Extended to Best Picture on Final Ballot for 2009 Oscars". Oscars.org. 2014-09-10. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  71. ^ instantrunoff.com
  72. ^ "Maine became the first state in the country Tuesday to pass ranked choice voting". 10 November 2016.
  73. ^ "Opinion of the Justices of the Supreme Judicial Court". 23 May 2017.
  74. ^ "In Maine, Golden Wins Nation's First Ranked-Choice Voting Runoff". WBUR. 15 November 2018.
  75. ^ Sherpard, Michael (September 6, 2019). "Maine will use ranked-choice voting in next year's presidential election — but not the 2020 primaries". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved September 6, 2019.
  76. ^ Daley, David (2019-07-09). "Ranked Choice Voting Is On a Roll: 6 States Have Opted In for the 2020 Democratic Primary". In These Times. ISSN 0160-5992. Retrieved 2019-08-22.
  77. ^ FairVote.org. "How ranked choice voting will affect Democratic presidential primary". FairVote. Retrieved 2019-08-22.