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Hurricane Rosa (2018)

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Hurricane Rosa
Category 4 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Rosa 2018-09-28 0945Z.jpg
Hurricane Rosa at peak intensity southwest of Baja California Sur on September 28
FormedSeptember 25, 2018
DissipatedOctober 3, 2018
(Remnant low after October 2)
Highest winds1-minute sustained: 150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure936 mbar (hPa); 27.64 inHg
Fatalities1 direct, 2 indirect
Damage$50.5 million (2018 USD)
Areas affectedBaja California Peninsula, Northwestern Mexico, Southwestern United States
Part of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Rosa was a strong tropical cyclone that brought severe flooding to northwestern Mexico and the Southwestern United States. The seventeenth named storm, tenth hurricane, and seventh major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Rosa originated from a broad area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center began monitoring on September 22. The disturbance moved westward and then west-northwestward for a few days, before developing into a tropical depression on September 25. Later that day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Rosa. One day later, the system strengthened into a hurricane. On September 27, Rosa began a period of rapid intensification, ultimately peaking as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 936 mbar (27.64 inHg) on the next day. Over the next couple of days, the storm turned towards the northeast. By September 29, Rosa had weakened into a Category 2 hurricane due to ongoing structural changes and less favorable conditions. Later on the same day, the cyclone re-intensified slightly before continuing to weaken as its core structure eroded, falling to tropical storm status early on October 1. The cyclone weakened to a tropical depression on October 2 and made landfall in Baja California. Later in the day, Rosa's remnants crossed into the Gulf of California, with its surface and mid-level remnants later separating entirely. The mid-level remnants continued to travel north, reaching northeast Arizona late in the day. On October 3, Rosa's remnants were absorbed into an upper-level low situated off the coast of California.

Rosa prompted the issuance of tropical storm watches and warnings along the coast of Baja California as well as various flood-related watches and warnings throughout the Southwestern United States. Rainfall from the system affected a large geographical area, due to the remnants having split apart in the Gulf of California. Rosa caused significant flooding throughout northwestern Mexico, which resulted in the deaths of one person and caused minor damage in Baja California. The remnants also caused flash-flooding in Arizona, with several inches of rain falling in areas, which indirectly resulted in the deaths of two individuals. Flood damage from Rosa in the Southwestern United States totaled about US$50.5 million.

Meteorological history[edit]

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

Hurricane Rosa originated from a vigorous tropical wave that departed from the west coast of Africa on September 6. The wave spawned Hurricane Helene on September 7,[1] and then travelled across the tropical Atlantic with minimal convective activity.[2] On September 19, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the wave for tropical development, anticipating that an area of low pressure would form a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend.[3] On September 22, a broad area of low pressure formed approximately 200 mi (320 km) south of Mexico.[4] The NHC continued to track the disturbance for a few more days as it moved westward to west-northwestward.[5] On September 25 at 06:00 UTC, the NHC reported that a tropical depression had formed approximately 350 mi (565 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.[2] Around that time, the NHC stated that the system had a well defined center and deep convection that was increasing in both coverage and intensity. Additionally, the depression was located in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and minimal vertical wind shear.[6] Six hours later, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm and was assigned the name Rosa.[2]

Over the next day, Rosa continued to strengthen, becoming the tenth hurricane of the season at 12:00 UTC on September 26.[2][7] Around that time, the NHC indicated that the storm had a solid mid-level ring and strong, well developed banding in the southern half of the system.[8] Rosa's intensity leveled off for about eighteen hours before strengthening resumed, resulting in the system attaining Category 2 status on September 27 at 12:00 UTC, and major hurricane status six hours later.[2] On September 28, at 03:00 UTC, Rosa peaked with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 936 mbar (27.64 inHg), becoming the seventh Category 4 hurricane of the season.[2][9] Shortly after, the NHC stated that the cyclone's eye had warmed considerably and the clouds in the inner ring had warmed considerably, which marked the commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle.[10] By the afternoon of September 28, Rosa began to track northwest in response to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough.[11] As the eyewall cycle took place and Rosa began to track towards cooler water, the storm steadily weakened and was downgraded to Category 2 status at 00:00 UTC on September 29.[12] After completing its eyewall replacement cycle, the storm briefly re-intensified,[2] following a major increase in organization and the expansion of its northeastward outflow channel.[13] However, westerly wind shear caused the circulation to become displaced,[14] as it tracked due north under the increasing influence of the trough.[13] Rosa resumed weakening, falling to Category 1 status at 12:00 UTC on September 30.[2]

By September 30, a combination of strong southwesterly wind shear, dry air entanglement, and cooler sea surface temperatures caused the core of Rosa to quickly erode, resulting in the collapse of its eye and convection in the storm's southern semicircle.[15][16] On the morning of October 1, at 00:00 UTC, Rosa weakened into a tropical storm.[2] Shortly after, the system began travelling towards the northeast.[17] Twenty-four hours later, Rosa weakened into a tropical depression, with the NHC reporting that the remaining convection was displaced to the northeast of the system's center and that the circulation was becoming elongated.[18] At 11:00 UTC, the depression made landfall approximately 70 mi (115 km) southeast of Punta San Antonio in Baja California.[2] The NHC issued its last advisory on Rosa at 16:00 UTC as it began to cross into the Gulf of California,[19] after which the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) began issuing storm summaries on the system. On the same day, the WPC noted that the low-level and mid-level remnants had split, with the surface low of Rosa located in the Gulf of California while its mid-level remnants were over northeast Arizona.[20] On October 3, the remnants of Rosa were absorbed into a developing upper-level low off the coast of California, and the WPC issued their last advisory on the system.[21]

Preparations and impact[edit]

Mexico[edit]

Satellite image of Category 2 Hurricane Rosa approaching Baja California on September 29
Hurricane Rosa approaching Baja California on September 29

On September 29, the Government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch for the Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintín. On the next day, the watches on the west coast of Baja California were changed to tropical storm warnings and watches were issued for the east coast of Baja California from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe. All the watches and warnings were discontinued after Rosa weakened to a tropical depression.[2] On September 30, the State Unit of Civil Protection of Sonora reported that a yellow alert had been issued for 11 municipalities and a green alert for 19 municipalities in Sonora in anticipation of severe weather conditions.[22] A red alert was issued for San Felipe on October 1 as Rosa approached Baja California.[23] On the same day, schools were closed in several communities throughout Baja California. Classes were also suspended in the neighboring state of Sonora.[24] The Marine Plan, an evacuation and rescue plan, was activated in the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa in anticipation of severe flooding.[25]

Hurricane Rosa caused severe flooding in Baja California; a peak rainfall total of 6.54 in (166 mm) occurred at Percebu.[26] On October 2, a woman drowned in Caborca after being swept away by flood waters.[27] In San Felipe, a section of one highway collapsed and two others were flooded after 5.39 in (137 mm) of rain fell.[26][28] In the port of San Felipe, a sinkhole opened up due to heavy rainfall.[23] In total, damage to roads in the city was about MX$10 million (US$530,000).[29] In Los Cabos, heavy rainfall inundated streets and floodwaters swept vehicles away.[30] In Puerto Peñasco, dozens of homes and businesses experienced flooding after a total of 3.94 in (100 mm) of rain fell. Multiple road closures occurred as a result of the flooding.[31] In Manzanillo, Colima, floodwaters caused multiple sinkholes, ruptured underground pipes, and inundated homes and businesses. Several landslides also occurred, which in turn blocked roads and buried three vehicles with mud.[32] In Michoacán, it was reported that Hurricane Rosa and the nearby Tropical Storm Sergio had destroyed at least 86,000 acres (35,000 ha) of crops by September 30.[33] After Rosa's passage, the governor of Baja California, Francisco Vega de la Madrid, issued a State of Emergency for the cities of Ensenada and Mexicali.[24] On October 3, an emergency declaration was approved for Puerto Peñasco.[31]

United States[edit]

Map of rainfall totals in Arizona for rain generated by Rosa's remnants from October 1–2
Rainfall totals for the second round of rain generated by Rosa's remnants, which lasted from October 1–2.

After Rosa made landfall, its remnants tracked northward, spawning rain showers and thunderstorms in the Four Corners region.[34] On September 30, in anticipation of severe rainfall from the system's remnants, flood watches and warnings were issued for Southern California, Arizona, southwest Colorado, Utah, central Nevada, and a small portion of southeast Idaho.[35] At that time, rainfall was causing flooding in Arizona and Southern California. In San Bernardino County, the remnants of Rosa and a Pacific low produced thunderstorms.[36] On October 1, floodwaters swept rock and other objects across portions of U.S. Route 95.[37] Portions of State Route 62 and State Route 127 were caked with mud and debris as floodwaters surged across the road.[36][38]

By the time of Rosa's absorption on October 3, a total of 6.89 in (175 mm) was reported at Towers Mountain, Arizona, which is approximately 85 mi (135 km) north of Phoenix, with other areas reporting up to 5.5 in (140 mm) of rain.[21] After more than 2 in (50 mm) of rain fell, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for the Phoenix area, and over two dozen road closures and 80 car crashes occurred. Multiple schools and businesses were also closed due to flooding.[39] Rosa caused flash flooding in the communities of Guadalupe, Glendale, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Deer Valley, and Sun City.[40] It also caused thousands of power outages in Yuma.[41] On October 3, a 26-year-old woman was struck by a vehicle and killed just north of Cameron after portions of U.S. Route 89 washed out from flash flooding that had affected the area.[42] In Pioche, Nevada, flash flooding inundated several buildings and deposited debris on Main Street.[43]

At Menagers Dam near Sells, rainfall from Rosa brought the water level to within a foot of maximum capacity, raising concerns about the dam's structural integrity.[44] This prompted the National Weather Service in Tucson to recommend immediate evacuation for the village of Ali Chuk on October 2, stating that dam failure was imminent.[45] On October 2, 162 people were evacuated from Ali Chuk, 32 from Kohatk, and 23 others from the Menegar's Dam community.[44] Despite the water level having receded, there were still concerns that the dam could fail. On October 4, the Tohono O’odham Nation announced that they were gathering engineers to assess the dam before the arrival of more rain later in the week.[46] Over the next two weeks, officials monitored the water level of the dam before allowing residents to return to their homes on October 17.[47] In Kingman, Arizona, a 34-year-old man was killed on October 4 after his vehicle was swept off a road by floodwaters; the vehicle was discovered entirely submerged in water.[48] Damage from flooding totaled about US$50 million.[49]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Avila, Lixion A. (September 8, 2018). Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 3. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Avila, Lixion A. (January 30, 2019). Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Rosa (PDF). National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
  3. ^ Blake, Eric (September 19, 2018). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  4. ^ Zelinsky, David (September 23, 2018). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  5. ^ Zelinsky, David (September 25, 2018). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  6. ^ Cangialosi, John (September 25, 2018). Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
  7. ^ Roberts, Dave (September 26, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 6. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 27, 2018.
  8. ^ Roberts, Dave (September 26, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 6. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  9. ^ Blake, Eric (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 12. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  10. ^ Roberts, Dave (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 13. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  11. ^ Zelinsky, David (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 14...Corrected. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  12. ^ Blake, Eric (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 16. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  13. ^ a b Beven, Jack (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 18. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  14. ^ Stewart, Stacy (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 17. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  15. ^ Stewart, Stacy (September 30, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 21. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  16. ^ Pasch, Richard (September 30, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 22. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  17. ^ Stewart, Stacy (October 1, 2018). Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 25. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 3, 2019.
  18. ^ Brown, Daniel (October 2, 2018). Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  19. ^ Cangialosi, John (October 2, 2018). Remnants Of Rosa Advisory Number 30. National Hurricane Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  20. ^ Otto, Richard (October 2, 2018). Storm Summary Number 5 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa. Weather Prediction Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  21. ^ a b Kong, Kwan-Yin (October 3, 2018). Storm Summary Number 7 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa. Weather Prediction Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  22. ^ "Emiten alerta por llegada de 'Rosa' a Sonora y Baja California". Lopez-Doriga (in Spanish). September 30, 2018. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  23. ^ a b "Sigue alerta en Puerto de San Felipe por remanentes de 'Rosa'". Televisa News (in Spanish). October 2, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  24. ^ a b Peter Orsi, Terry Tang (October 1, 2018). "Tropical Storm Rosa Heads for Baja, US Southwest". U.S News. Associated Press. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  25. ^ "Activan Plan Marina por el poderoso huracán "Rosa" que amenaza a México". El Imparcial (in Spanish). September 28, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  26. ^ a b "Precipitacion (mm) el 1 de octubre de 2018 por el huracán rosa" (Map). gob.mx (in Spanish). Conagua. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  27. ^ Breslin, Sean (October 1, 2018). "Rosa in the Southwest: Overtaken by Floodwaters, Roads Shut Down; 1 Killed in Mexico | The Weather Channel". The Weather Channel. Retrieved October 3, 2018. person reportedly drowned in Mexico after being swept away by floodwaters.
  28. ^ "Colapsa vialidad en San Felipe por intensa lluvia". Uniradio Noticias (in Spanish). October 1, 2018. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  29. ^ Cadena Noticias; Diana Campos (October 3, 2018). "10 millones de pérdidas en San Felipe por lluvias" (in Spanish). Mexicali: Cadena Noticias. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  30. ^ "Las lluvias de 'Rosa' provocan inundaciones en Los Cabos". La Prensa (in Spanish). September 28, 2018. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  31. ^ a b Hernández, Tania Yamileth (October 3, 2018). "Declare emergency in Puerto Peñasco for "Rosa"". elimparcial.com (in Spanish). elimparcial.com. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
  32. ^ "Lluvias dejan afectaciones en La Central, en Manzanillo, Colima". Televisa News (in Spanish). September 27, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  33. ^ "Al menos 35.000 hectáreas de cultivo afectadas en México por fuertes lluvias". NTN 24 (in Spanish). September 30, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  34. ^ October 2018 Climate Summary for Eastern Utah and Western Colorado. National Weather Service (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  35. ^ Tate, Jennifer (October 1, 2018). Storm Summary Number 1 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa...Corrected. Weather Prediction Center (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  36. ^ a b Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  37. ^ Breslin, Sean (October 1, 2018). "Rosa in the Southwest: Overtaken by Floodwaters, Roads Shut Down; 1 Killed in Mexico | The Weather Channel". The Weather Channel. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  38. ^ Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  39. ^ "'One of the rainiest days': Streets flooded, schools closed as Rosa takes toll on Arizona". 13wmaz. October 2, 2018. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  40. ^ Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  41. ^ Breslin, Sean (October 1, 2018). "Rosa in the Southwest: Overtaken by Floodwaters, Roads Shut Down; 1 Killed in Mexico | The Weather Channel". The Weather Channel. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  42. ^ Devereaux, Katie (October 5, 2018). "One dead after part of Highway 89 washed out". Arizona Daily Sun. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  43. ^ Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  44. ^ a b Southern Arizona dam holding as water recedes at the Wayback Machine (archived 2018-10-05)
  45. ^ NWS Tucson [@NWSTucson] (October 2, 2018). "Dam failure is imminent at Menegers Lake on the Tohono O'odham Nation. Evacuation per authorities is strongly advised for the village of Ali Chuk. #azwx" (Tweet). Retrieved October 5, 2018 – via Twitter.
  46. ^ Duarte, Carmen; Knott, Gloria (October 4, 2018). "Water levels drop, but tribal officials remain concerned Arizona dam could fail". Tucson.com. Tucson.com. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  47. ^ Radwany, Sam (October 17, 2018). "Some Tohono O'odham Nation evacuees finally returning home". Kgun 9. ABC. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
  48. ^ Holler, Madeleine (October 5, 2018). "MCSO: One dead in Kingman after flash flood". azfamily.com. AZFamily. Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  49. ^ Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight - 2018 Annual Report (PDF) (Report). Aon Benfield. January 22, 2019. Retrieved January 24, 2019.

External links[edit]

 This article incorporates public domain material from websites or documents of the National Weather Service.