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July 2025 Central Texas floods

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July 2025 Central Texas floods
Clockwise from top: Aerial photo of the heavy flooding near Hunt, Texas, on July 4, 2025. Satellite imagery of the storm responsible for the historic floods. A footbridge damaged by the heavy flooding. Search and Rescue operations along the Guadalupe River. Photo of a washed out road and several trees snapped and littered across the ground.
CauseHeavy rains due to a mesoscale convective vortex partially fed by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry
Meteorological history
DurationJuly 4–7, 2025 (3 days)
Flood
Maximum rainfall20.33 inches (516.4 mm)
Overall effects
Fatalities121+[1][2]
Missing166+
Areas affectedTexas Hill Country, Central Texas (especially Kerr County), Guadalupe River Watershed

From July 4 through July 7, 2025, a destructive and deadly flood took place in the Texas Hill Country, particularly in Kerr County, in the U.S. state of Texas. During the flooding, water levels along the Guadalupe River rose quickly and significantly when 5–11 in (130–280 mm) of rain fell in a short amount of time. As a result, at least 121 fatalities have been confirmed, of which at least 96 are in Kerr County, with more than 166 reported missing. The flooding was caused by a mesoscale convective vortex partially fed by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry.

Flooding began on the morning of July 4, after significant rainfall accumulated across Central Texas. Six flash flood emergency warnings, which included the cities of Kerrville and Mason, were issued the same day. The Guadalupe River rose about 26 ft (7.9 m) in 45 minutes.[3] It surged an estimated 29 ft (8.8 m) in the Hunt area, where more than 20 children were declared missing from a summer camp. July 5 saw more flash flood warnings for the Lake Travis area, which is part of the Colorado River watershed. In the span of a few hours, the equivalent to four months worth of rain fell across the Texas Hill Country region, with the highest rain totals being 20.33 in (516 mm). This flood was the deadliest inland flooding event in the United States since the 1976 Big Thompson River flood, surpassing flooding from Hurricane Helene in 2024.[4][5]

After the disaster, Governor Greg Abbott signed a state disaster declaration for several counties in Central Texas and US President Donald Trump signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County. Over 2,000 volunteers arrived in Kerr County to help with the search and rescue. Several state and volunteer firefighters and search and rescue teams, including a team from Mexico, moved along the Guadalupe River. Over 400 people were rescued from the floods; one rescue swimmer saved 165 people. The flood also sparked conspiracy theories about weather manipulation and cloud seeding that were quickly debunked.

After the disaster, the preparation and response to the floods by Kerr County officials have fallen under scrutiny. The county lacked an independent flood warning system, though a former sheriff advocated for such a system nine years earlier and the county commissioner at the time noted that their area was at the highest risk for flooding. The lack of follow-through was attributed to the high cost of such a system, and lack of support from the local residents. Although officials were notified when the flooding began on July 4, it took several additional hours before any county alert messages were sent out.

Background and meteorological synopsis

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See also: Tropical Storm Barry (2025)
Area of "Flash Flood Alley" in Texas; the lighter curved region running from Dallas down through San Antonio

Central Texas, and more specifically the Hill Country region, is known for being prone to major floods. With one of the highest risks for flash flooding in the country, the area is referred to as the flash flood alley, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority.[6] This is caused by a combination of steep hills and arid soil that water tends to run off quickly, funneling water rapidly into rivers during rainstorms.[7] The Guadalupe River and surrounding rivers in the region have flooded multiple times in recent decades, often with deadly consequences. This includes flooding in July 1987 that killed 10, flooding in October 1998 that killed 31,[8] flooding in May 2015 on the nearby Blanco River that killed 13, and flooding just 3 weeks earlier in nearby San Antonio that killed 13.[9][10]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed with "high confidence" that extreme rainfall events in North America are becoming more common due to climate change, because warmer air can contain more water vapor.[11][vague] According to Climate Central, San Antonio rainfall intensity has increased by 6% since 1970 while Austin's has risen by 19%, meaning that more rain falls in a given hour than did decades ago.[12][dubious – discuss] Natural climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation may have contributed as well.[11]

Late on July 3, 2025, the remnant mid-level circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry became embedded within a broader mid-level trough containing tropical east Pacific remnant moisture.[13][14] This system developed into thunderstorms which stalled over Central Texas, causing heavy rains that led to deadly flooding in that region on July 4–7, especially along the Guadalupe River.[15][16] In total, more than 1.8 trillion gallons of rain, four months worth of rain, fell in or around the Texas Hill Country.[17][18]

Preparations and impact

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At 1:18 pm CDT on July 3, 2025, the National Weather Service office in San Antonio, Texas, issued a flood watch for Kerr County and other areas that would later be impacted by severe flooding. The watch warned of 1–3 inches (25–76 mm) of rain, with isolated areas seeing closer to 5–7 inches (130–180 mm). The watch noted that there would be "rounds of scattered to widespread showers and storms with heavy rain rates possible."[19]

"Moderate" risk of excessive rainfall outlined by the Weather Prediction Center at 1430Z on July 4

On July 3 at 6:10 pm CDT, the Weather Prediction Center branch of the National Weather Service issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion citing that "areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX overnight with very heavy rainfall expected.[20] Hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches (51–76 mm) seems reasonable given the environment and localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches (150 mm) will be possible", and detailing that the potential flooding may have "significant impacts".[21] Another discussion issued at 6:27 am on July 4 used stronger wording, warning that "Considerable to catastrophic flash flood impacts can continue to be expected."[22]

Numerous flash flood warnings were issued throughout the event. Several of these warnings contained dire flash flood emergency wording. The first flash flood warning for the event was issued at 11:41 pm CDT on July 3 and was for Bandera County. At 1:14 am CDT on July 4, the first flash flood warning with a "considerable" tags was issued for Bandera and Kerr counties;[20] for Hunt and Ingram in Kerr County, at 4:03 am on July 4, a flash flood emergency was issued urging residents to "SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" and that rainfall rates of 2–4 inches (50–100 mm) per hour would continue to impact the area which had already seen 4–10 inches (100–250 mm) of rain.[23] By 4:05, the Guadalupe River at Hunt had risen to 21.99 feet (6.70 m), rising over ten feet (3.0 m) in an hour and reaching major flood stage. The river continued to surge, reaching 37.52 feet (11.44 m) and still rising at 5:10 am when the gauge at Hunt stopped updating. This level marked the highest ever recorded at Hunt, surpassing flash flooding that occurred in 1987 by almost a foot.[24] Multiple summer camps near Hunt, notably Camp Mystic, experienced catastrophic flooding.[25]

GOES-19 Infrared imagery of the storm system on July 4

Further down the Guadalupe River, a flash flood emergency was issued by the National Weather Service for Kerrville at 5:34 am, again warning of the potential for "catastrophic" flood damage. Between 5:15 and 6:45, the river surged from less than two feet (60 cm) to 34.29 feet (10.45 m) and major flood stage.[26][27]

Another flash flood emergency was issued for Comfort, where the water level at the Guadalupe River surged from 3.15 feet (100 cm) at 8:45 am to 35.26 feet (10.75 m) just two hours later at 10:45 as a wall of water surged down the river. The area was placed under a flash flood emergency at 7:24 am, warning that "automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River" over an hour before the water level began to surge.[28][29] In total, the National Weather Service issued 22 alerts of escalating severity over the course of July 3 and 4.[30]

On July 7, another "moderate" risk for excessive rainfall was outlined by the Weather Prediction Center;[31] A flash flood watch was issued for much of central Texas at 11:46 pm CDT on July 6, warning of 2-4 inches of rain with some areas possibly seeing as much as 10 inches through 7 pm on July 7.[32]

Effects

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In the early morning of July 4, 6.5 inches (170 mm) of rain fell in just three hours, resulting in numerous water-related rescues.[33] In Hunt, Texas, where the two branches of the Guadalupe River meet, the river gauge recorded a 22-foot (6.7 m) rise in 2 hours before failing when it reached 29 feet (8.8 m).[34] Downstream in Kerrville, the river surged to 21 feet (6.4 m).[35] Further downstream, in Comfort, it surged to 29.86 feet (9.10 m).[35] The city of Kerrville issued a disaster declaration on July 4 following the floods.[36] In total, 5–11 inches (130–280 mm) of rain fell on some areas that experienced significant flood effects.[37]

Flooding continued into July 5[38] with two more flash flood emergencies being issued for areas around Lake Travis north of Austin.[39][40][41] Later, a third flash flood emergency was issued for central Comal County, noting that "local law enforcement reported flooding of the Guadalupe River".[42] 20.33 inches (516 mm) of rain fell northwest of Streeter.[43]

Search and rescue

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Footage of a United States Coast Guard rescue mission during July 4

Over 200 people were rescued from the floods over the course of July 4.[44][45] Search-and-rescue operations took place on July 4 and overnight from July 4 to 5, resulting in at least 237 people being rescued from floodwaters [46] including 167 people rescued via helicopter.[47] US Coast Guard rescue swimmer Scott Ruskan was hailed as a hero after Department of Homeland Security officials, including Secretary Kristi Noem, credited him with rescuing 165 people.[48] Telecommunication outages in the area made it hard to contact many people in the region.[49] The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said on July 8 that more than 440 people had been rescued since July 4, while authorities had searched 26 miles (42 km) of river.[25] Over 2,000 volunteers helped out in the emergency operations in Kerr County alone.[50]

Multiple groups from other US states and agencies, as well as from Mexico, joined the search and rescue. Firefighters and first responders from Mexico, specifically from Fundación 911 stationed at Acuña, Mexico, volunteered to assist in the operations along the Guadalupe River. Under the command of the Mountain Home fire department and Texas state fire department, the team of 13 brought search and rescue canines from Nuevo León. The Mexican team was brought in despite rising tensions along the Mexico–United States border and the US federal and state administration's crackdown on immigration.[51] On July 7, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced the deployment of skilled Urban Search and Rescue Team members to the Texas floods in close coordination with FEMA; the teams were experienced in major disaster rescue operations, including Hurricane Katrina and the September 11 attacks.[52] The next day, he announced that an additional 18 highly skilled rescue team members would assist in the response.[53]

Twenty-two Arkansas National Guardsmen, including pilots, crew chiefs, and maintenance personnel, were deployed to assist with transportation of search and rescue personnel during the early morning hours of July 8, after receiving an Emergency Management Assistance Compact request from Texas.[54] On the same day, Colorado Task Force One was activated in response to the Texas floods; the team consisted of 48 members, including four canines, spanning 16 different agencies and five affiliate member agencies. South Metro Fire Rescue sent ten members, Poudre Fire Authority sent six members, and Colorado Springs Fire Department five members.[55] On July 7, the Governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, dispatched fourteen Swift Water Rescue personnel to Texas to assist in the ongoing flood response.[56] On July 9, NASA deployed two aircraft to assist state and local authorities in the recovery operation. The planes are a part of NASA's Disasters Response Coordination System, which was activated to support emergency responses and was working closely with Texas Division of Emergency Management, FEMA, and two charities, Save the Children and GiveDirectly.[57]

North Dakota's governor Kelly Armstrong authorized the North Dakota National Guard to send a MQ-9 Reaper drone to help locate survivors under the request from Emergency Management Assistance Compact. Remote controlled from Fargo by the North Dakota Air National Guard’s 119th Wing, the MQ-9 Reaper is being used to collect aerial surveillance, search for the missing, and assess damage in inaccessible areas.[58]

Officials urged untrained civilians to stay away from active search zones because of safety risks and coordination challenges.[59] They also criticized the influx of sightseers and the use of unauthorized drones for complicating rescue operations.[60][61] On July 7, a private drone was illegally flown into temporarily restricted airspace over Kerrville and crashed into a rescue helicopter, forcing the pilot to make an emergency landing, and damaging and rendering unusable a critical piece of emergency response equipment.[62]

Casualties

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County Deaths[1][2]
Kerr County 96+
Kendall County 8
Travis County 8
Burnet County 5
Williamson County 3
Tom Green County 1
Total 121+

As of July 10, there were 121 people confirmed dead in the floods.[1][63] At least 96 deaths were confirmed in Kerr County (60 adults and 36 children), eight in Kendall County, seven in Travis County, five in Burnet County, three in Williamson County, and one in Tom Green County.[1][2]

Several of the fatalities that occurred in Kerr County were young girls who were staying at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp, located 6 miles (10 km) southwest of Hunt. On July 4, 27 were declared missing from Camp Mystic.[64] The number of girls missing dropped to 10 on July 7 with the same counselor still missing.[65] Camp Mystic director Dick Eastland, who purchased the camp in 1974, was confirmed to be among those dead as well.[66][67] On July 7, CNN reported that 27 campers and counselors had died in floods at Camp Mystic and that ten girls and a counselor were still missing.[68] By July 9, five girls and one counselor remained missing.[2]

As of July 9, at least 166 people were missing across several counties: 161 in Kerr County, 4 in Travis County, 1 in Burnet County.[1]

Aftermath

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Scouts help unload donated supplies for Red Cross distribution in Boerne, Texas

All Hands and Hearts partnered with Airbnb to support first responders, search and rescue teams, and families who survived the floods, with Airbnb providing emergency temporary housing for first responders, people looking for missing loved ones wanting to stay near search and rescue efforts, and residents with heavily damaged or destroyed homes, working with local nonprofits to identify those in greatest need.[69][70] In response to the floods, the World Central Kitchen Relief team was mobilized in central Texas to support the communities impacted by the floods by providing food and waters to anyone in need, including first responders.[71]

Samaritan's Purse sent a disaster relief unit to central Texas, with the unit equipped with tools and relief supplies from Southwest Ministry Center in Coppell, Texas. Volunteers from the organization were also prepared to assist families in recovery efforts.[72] Texas non-profit Operation Airdrop has mobilized aircraft, crews, and volunteer pilots to deliver emergency supplies to people stranded in hard-to-reach areas.[73] First responders and firefighters from Acuna, Mexico, located across the border from Del Rio, Texas, were deployed by nonprofit Foundation 911 on July 9 to aid in search and rescue efforts in Kerrville, Kerr County.[74][75] T-Mobile donated $500,000 to support relief efforts in Kerr County to the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country.[76]

Walmart and their foundation, and Sam's Club partnered up to support communities in South and Central Texas after the floods. These three companies and organization committed up to $500,000 in grants and donations, including up to $250,000 match of customer and member donations through online or in-stores or clubs in Texas. At the Walmart Supercenter in Kerrville, Operation BBQ relief were offering free meals, with Tide's Loads of Hope laundry trucks and showers provided by Matthew 25: Ministries, Procter & Gamble and Walmart will be deployed to the area. Walmart and their charity foundation will also fund local partners like the American Red Cross and The Salvation Army with food, water, and other supplies for the relief efforts.[77]

Response

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External videos
video icon "Governor Abbott and Other Officials Hold News Conference on Texas Floods", July 6, 2025, C-SPAN
video icon "Gov. Abbott and Others News Conference on Texas Floods", July 8, 2025, C-SPAN

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said that he is working in coordination with the state's emergency response team on the "significant" and "catastrophic" flooding in Kerr County.[78][79] Governor Greg Abbott also signed a state disaster declaration for several counties in Central Texas. The next day, on July 5, Abbott expanded the disaster declaration to additional counties affected by storms.[80] The next day, Abbott announced Trump signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County, with other counties planning to be added later.[81] On July 5, Abbott toured the damage from the flooding in Kerrville, with local, state and federal officials including Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.[82]

Trump commented that the floods were "terrible" and promised federal aid to those affected.[83] In response to Abbott's July 4 disaster declaration and request for federal support, Trump issued a federal disaster declaration on July 6.[84][85][86] States petition the federal government for emergency assistance when "the necessary response to a disaster is beyond the capacity of state and local governments";[87] it is estimated that federal funding already covered approximately 75% of the operations budget for the state of Texas emergency management.[88] As of July 7, the White House was also making plans for Trump to visit Texas, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying "The White House is currently arranging those travel plans. We hope that it will be later this week, likely on Friday. But of course, we want to do it at the most appropriate time on the ground for state and local officials."[89]

David Richardson, the acting director of FEMA, has not made any public statements regarding the deadly flooding, which FEMA staff say is highly unusual.[90] The Texas Division of Emergency Management, FEMA and U.S. Small Business Administration staff opened a Disaster Recovery Center in Kerrville on July 10 to offer help to survivors affected by extreme weather.[91]

Analysis and criticism

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NOAA and weather forecasts

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In the immediate aftermath of the flooding, Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd criticized the forecasts from the National Weather Service stating "the amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts...It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw.”[92][93][94] Former officials from NOAA and the NWS were quick to point out "the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm's unusually abrupt escalation" but staffing shortages from recent reductions in the federal workforce "suggested a separate problem (...) the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight",[95] like the absence of Paul Yura, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin / San Antonio office, who took the early retirement offer as part of NOAA’s cuts to personnel and budget. Yura had over 32 years of experience understanding local weather patterns and ensuring timely warnings were disseminated to the public.[96][97] As of July 6, 2025, six positions in that office were vacant, including his.[98] A Commerce Department spokesman rejected the assertion that the response of the NWS had been inadequate.[95] The Associated Press and NWS Union concurred stating that staffing at NWS offices for the weather event was appropriate.[99][100]

Kerr Country preparation and response

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Focus has also fallen on the lack of an independent warning system and the lack of evacuation orders in Kerr County.[101] It relied on cellphone emergency alerts, which may not work in rural areas with poor service, at night, when phones are off, or when there are no phones around: the Camp Mystic girls weren’t allowed to bring them. Also, people tend to ignore repeated phone alerts.[102] Areas that did have a warning system in place, such as Comfort in Kendall County, had no casualties. Comfort has a computer-backed system costing about $60,000 that is linked to the National Weather Service by a satellite dish that can withstand violent weather, and automatically triggers sirens when the agency declares flash flood emergencies for the area. Comfort chose to trigger its sirens manually when officials noticed that flood waters had risen past a certain point.[102][103]

In 2016, the then sheriff of Kerr County advocated for a warning system, including sirens,[104] but other people did not want the disturbance of sirens going off accidentally, and then-Commissioner H.A. "Buster" Baldwin said, "I think this whole thing is a little extravagant for Kerr County, with sirens and such."[102] A county commissioner noted that year that Kerr County was "probably the highest risk area in the state for flooding".[105] Discussions about funding and constructing a system continued on and off until at least 2021.[105] The current Kerr County judge, Rob Kelly, said that the lack of a warning system was due to its high cost and claimed that residents were resistant to the idea for that reason.[95][106] Kerr County twice requested government grants in 2017 and 2018 from the Texas Division of Emergency Management for additional measuring equipment, upgrades to existing water gauge systems, and software / website for real-time information for the public. These requests were not approved.[107] Kelly stated during the floods that "no one knew this kind of flood was coming",[108][109] while President Donald Trump claimed that "Nobody expected it, nobody saw it" until it was too late.[110]

Kerr County officials have been under scrutiny for their slow warning time. A dispatch audio reveals that around 4:22 a.m. CDT, around the time the flood started, a firefighter from Ingram asked the Kerr County Sheriff's office to alert residents about the floods, but it took nearly six hours for Kerr County officials to heed the call, with the dispatcher waiting for approval by their supervisors. The first alert from Kerr County's CodeRED[111] system did not go out until 90 minutes later, with some messages not arriving until 10 a.m. CDT.[112]

See also

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References

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