List of nuclear close calls

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A nuclear close call is an incident that could lead to, or could have led to at least one unintended nuclear detonation/explosion. These incidents typically involve a perceived imminent threat to a nuclear-armed country which could lead to retaliatory strikes against the perceived aggressor. The damage caused by international nuclear exchange is not necessarily limited to the participating countries, as the hypothesized rapid climate change associated with even small-scale regional nuclear war could threaten food production worldwide—a scenario known as nuclear famine.[1]

Despite a reduction in global nuclear tensions and major nuclear arms reductions after the end of the Cold War (in 1991), estimated nuclear warhead stockpiles total roughly 15,000 worldwide, with the United States and Russia holding 90% of the total.[2]

Though exact details on many nuclear close calls are hard to come by, the analysis of particular cases has highlighted the importance of a variety of factors in preventing accidents. At an international level, this includes the importance of context and outside mediation; at the national level, effectiveness in government communications, and involvement of key decision-makers; and, at the individual level, the decisive role of individuals in following intuition and prudent decision-making, often in violation of protocol.[3]

1950s and 1960s[edit]

5 November 1956[edit]

During the Suez Crisis, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) received a number of simultaneous reports, including unidentified aircraft over Turkey, Soviet MiG-15 fighters over Syria, a downed British Canberra medium bomber, and unexpected maneuvers by the Soviet Black Sea Fleet through the Dardanelles that appeared to signal a Soviet offensive. Considering previous Soviet threats to use conventional missiles against France and the United Kingdom, U.S. forces believed these events could trigger a NATO nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. In fact, all reports of Soviet action turned out to be erroneous, misinterpreted, or exaggerated. The perceived threat was due to a coincidental combination of events, including a wedge of swans over Turkey, a fighter escort for Syrian President Shukri al-Quwatli returning from Moscow, a British bomber brought down by mechanical issues, and scheduled exercises of the Soviet fleet.[4]

5 October 1960[edit]

Radar equipment in Thule, Greenland, mistakenly interpreted a moonrise over Norway as a large-scale Soviet missile launch. Upon receiving a report of the supposed attack, NORAD went on high alert. However, doubts about the authenticity of the attack arose due to the presence of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in New York City as head of the USSR's United Nations delegation.[5][6][7]

24 January 1961[edit]

On 24 January 1961, a B-52 Stratofortress carrying two 3–4-megaton Mark 39 nuclear bombs broke up in mid-air near Goldsboro, North Carolina, dropping its nuclear payload in the process.[8] The pilot in command, Walter Scott Tulloch, ordered the crew to eject at 9,000 feet (2,700 m). Five crewmen successfully ejected or bailed out of the aircraft and landed safely, another ejected but did not survive the landing, and two died in the crash.[9] Information declassified in 2013 showed that one of the bombs came very close to detonating.[10]

24 November 1961[edit]

Staff at the Strategic Air Command Headquarters (SAC HQ) simultaneously lost contact with NORAD and multiple Ballistic Missile Early Warning System sites. Since these communication lines were designed to be redundant and independent from one another, the communications failure was interpreted as either a very unlikely coincidence or a coordinated attack. SAC HQ prepared the entire ready force for takeoff before already-overhead aircraft confirmed that there did not appear to be an attack. It was later found that the failure of a single relay station in Colorado was the sole cause of the communications problem.[5]

25 October 1962[edit]

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, US military planners expected that sabotage operations might precede any nuclear first strike by the Soviet Union. Around midnight on 25 October 1962, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction Center saw a figure climbing the security fence. He shot at it and activated the sabotage alarm, which automatically set off similar alarms at other bases in the region. At Volk Field in Wisconsin, a faulty alarm system caused the Klaxon to sound instead, which ordered Air Defense Command (ADC) nuclear-armed F-106A interceptors into the air. The pilots had been told there would be no practice alert drills and, according to political scientist Scott D. Sagan, "fully believed that a nuclear war was starting".[11] Before the planes were able to take off, the base commander contacted Duluth and learned of the error. An officer in the command center drove his car onto the runway, flashing his lights and signaling to the aircraft to stop. The intruder was discovered to be a bear.[11][12]

Sagan writes that the incident raised the dangerous possibility of an ADC interceptor accidentally shooting down a Strategic Air Command (SAC) bomber.[11] Interceptor crews had not been given full information by the SAC of plans to move bombers to dispersal bases (such as Volk Field) or the classified routes flown by bombers on continuous alert as part of Operation Chrome Dome. Declassified ADC documents later revealed that "the incident led to changes in the alert Klaxon system [...] to prevent a recurrence".[11]

27 October 1962[edit]

At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Soviet patrol submarine B-59 almost launched a nuclear-tipped torpedo while under harassment by American naval forces. One of several vessels surrounded by American destroyers near Cuba, B-59 dove to avoid detection and was unable to communicate with Moscow for a number of days.[13] USS Beale began dropping practice depth charges to signal B-59 to surface; however the captain of the Soviet submarine and its zampolit took these to be real depth charges.[14] With low batteries affecting the submarine's life support systems and unable to make contact with Moscow, the commander of B-59 feared that war had already begun and ordered the use of a 10-kiloton nuclear torpedo against the American fleet. The zampolit agreed, but the flotilla commander Vasily Arkhipov, realizing that the use of "toy" depth charges meant the US vessels were only harassing them, not attacking them, refused permission to launch. He convinced the captain to calm down, surface, and make contact with Moscow for new orders.[15][16]

On the same day, an American U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba, and another U-2 flown by United States Air Force Captain Charles Maultsby strayed 300 miles (480 km) into Soviet airspace. Despite orders to avoid Soviet airspace by at least 100 miles (160 km), a navigational error took the U-2 over the Chukotka Peninsula, causing Soviet MiG interceptors to scramble and pursue the aircraft.[4][17] American F-102A interceptors armed with GAR-11 Falcon nuclear air-to-air missiles (each with a 0.25 kiloton yield) were then scrambled to escort the U-2 into friendly airspace.[18] Individual pilots were capable of arming and launching their missiles.

9 November 1965[edit]

The Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning went on full alert after a massive power outage in the northeastern United States. Several nuclear bomb detectors—used to distinguish between regular power outages and power outages caused by a nuclear blast—near major U.S. cities malfunctioned due to circuit errors, creating the illusion of a nuclear attack.[4]

23 May 1967[edit]

A powerful solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection interfered with multiple NORAD radars over the Northern Hemisphere. This interference was initially interpreted as intentional jamming of the radars by the Soviets, thus an act of war. A nuclear bomber counter-strike was nearly launched by the United States.[19]

15 April 1969[edit]

After the 1969 EC-121 shootdown incident, a pilot at Kunsan Air Base was reportedly ordered to load a B61 nuclear bomb onto an F-4 fighter jet and prepare for a nuclear strike against the Democratic People's Republic of Choson (North Korea).[20] After a few hours, the order to stand down was given. The jet never took off. Reportedly, Richard Nixon was drunk when he gave the order for a nuclear attack against the DPRK.[21] The order to stand down was given on the advice of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

1970s and 1980s[edit]

October 1973[edit]

During the Yom Kippur War, Israeli officials panicked that the Arab invasion force would overrun Israel after the Syrian Army nearly achieved a breakout in the Golan Heights, and the U.S. government rebuffed Israel's request for an emergency airlift. According to a former CIA official, General Moshe Dayan requested and received authorization from Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir to arm 13 Jericho missiles and 8 F-4 Phantom II fighter jets with nuclear warheads. The missile launchers were located at Sdot Micha Airbase, while the fighter jets were placed on 24-hour notice at Tel Nof Airbase. The missiles were said to be aimed at the Arab military headquarters in Cairo and Damascus. The United States discovered Israel's nuclear deployment after a Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft spotted the missiles, and it began an airlift the same day. After the U.N. Security Council imposed a ceasefire, conflict resumed when the Israel Defense Force moved to encircle the Egyptian Third Army. According to former U.S. State Department officials, General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev threatened to deploy the Soviet Airborne Forces against Israeli forces, and the U.S. Armed Forces were placed at DEFCON 3. Israel also redeployed its nuclear weapons. While DEFCON 3 was still in effect, mechanics repairing the alarm system at Kincheloe Air Force Base in Michigan accidentally activated it and nearly scrambled the B-52 bombers at the base before the duty officer declared a false alarm.[4] The crisis finally ended when Prime Minister Meir halted all military action.[22] Declassified Israeli documents have not confirmed these allegations directly, but have confirmed that Israel was willing to use "drastic means" to win the war.[23]

9 November 1979[edit]

Computer errors at the NORAD headquarters in Peterson Air Force Base, the Strategic Air Command command post in Offutt Air Force Base, the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon, and the Alternate National Military Command Center in the Raven Rock Mountain Complex led to alarm and full preparation for a nonexistent large-scale Soviet attack.[4][5] NORAD notified national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski that the Soviet Union had launched 250 ballistic missiles with a trajectory for the United States, stating that a decision to retaliate would need to be made by the president within 3 to 7 minutes. NORAD computers then placed the number of incoming missiles at 2,200.[24] Strategic Air Command was notified, and nuclear bombers prepared for takeoff. Within six to seven minutes of the initial response, PAVE PAWS satellite and radar systems were able to confirm that the attack was a false alarm.[4][7][25]

Congress quickly learned of the incident because Senator Charles H. Percy was present at the NORAD headquarters during the panic. A General Accounting Office investigation found that a training scenario was inadvertently loaded into an operational computer in the Cheyenne Mountain Complex.[4] Commenting on the incident, U.S. State Department adviser Marshall Shulman stated that "false alerts of this kind are not a rare occurrence. There is a complacency about handling them that disturbs me."[24] Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev composed a letter to U.S. President Jimmy Carter that the false alarm was "fraught with a tremendous danger" and "I think you will agree with me that there should be no errors in such matters."[26] In the months following the incident there were three more false alarms at NORAD, two of them caused by faulty computer chips.[5] One of them forced the National Emergency Airborne Command Post to taxi into position at Andrews Air Force Base.[26]

15 March 1980[edit]

A Soviet submarine near the Kuril Islands launched four missiles as part of a training exercise. Of these four, American early warning sensors suggested one to be aimed towards the United States. In response, the United States convened officials for a threat assessment conference, at which point it was determined to not be a threat and the situation was resolved.[5]

26 September 1983[edit]

Several weeks after the downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over Soviet airspace, a satellite early-warning system near Moscow reported the launch of one American Minuteman ICBM. Soon after, it reported that five missiles had been launched. Convinced that a real American offensive would involve many more missiles, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Air Defense Forces refused to acknowledge the threat as legitimate and continued to convince his superiors that it was a false alarm until this could be confirmed by ground radar.[7][27][28][29][30][31][32]

7 to 11 November 1983[edit]

Able Archer 83 was a command post exercise carried out by NATO military forces and political leaders between 7 and 11 November 1983.[33] The exercise simulated a Soviet conventional attack on European NATO forces 3 days before the start of the exercise (D-3), transitioning to a large scale chemical war (D-1) and on day 1 (D+1) of the exercise, NATO forces sought political guidance on the use of nuclear weapons to stem the Soviet advance which was approved by political leaders. NATO then began simulating preparations for a transition to nuclear war.[34]

These simulations included 170 radio-silent flights to air lift 19,000 US troops to Europe, regularly shifting military commands to avoid nuclear attack, the use of new nuclear weapon release procedures, the use of nuclear Command, Control, and Communications (C3) networks for passing nuclear orders, the moving of NATO forces in Europe through each of the alert phases from DEFCON 5 to DEFCON 1, and the participation of political leaders like Margaret Thatcher, Helmut Kohl and Ronald Reagan.[35]

The issue was worsened by leaders referring to B-52 sorties as "nuclear strikes",[35] by the increased use of encrypted diplomatic channels between the US and UK,[36] and by the nuclear attack false alarm in September.

In response, Soviet nuclear capable aircraft were fueled and armed ready to launch on the runway, and ICBMs were brought up to alert. Soviet leaders believed the exercise was ruse to cover NATO preparations for a nuclear first strike and frantically sent a telegram to its residencies seeking information on NATO preparations for an attack. The exercise closely aligned with Soviet timeline estimations that a NATO first strike would take 7 to 10 days to execute from the political decision being made.[37][38]

Soviet forces stood down after 11 November when the exercise ended and NATO was not aware of the complete Soviet response until British intelligence asset Oleg Gordievsky passed on the information.[39]

Post–Cold War[edit]

25 January 1995[edit]

Russian President Boris Yeltsin became the first world leader to activate a nuclear briefcase after Russian radar systems detected the launch of what was later determined to be a Norwegian Black Brant XII research rocket being used to study the Northern Lights.[40] Russian ballistic missile submarines were put on alert in preparation for a possible retaliatory strike.[41] When it became clear the rocket did not pose a threat to Russia and was not part of a larger attack, the alarm was cancelled. Russia was in fact one of a number of countries earlier informed of the launch; however, the information had not reached the Russian radar operators.[5]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Fromm, M.; Stocks, B.; Servranckx, R.; et al. (2006). "Smoke in the Stratosphere: What Wildfires have Taught Us About Nuclear Winter". Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union. 87 (52 Fall Meet. Suppl): Abstract U14A–04. Bibcode:2006AGUFM.U14A..04F. Archived from the original on 6 October 2014.
  2. ^ "Nuclear Weapons: Who has what at a glance". Arms Control Association.
  3. ^ Lewis, Patricia; Williams, Heather; Pelopidas, Benoit; Aghlani, Sasan (28 April 2014). "Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy" (PDF). Chatham House Report.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g Philips, Alan F. (1998). "20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War". nuclearfiles.org. Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. Archived from the original on 3 July 2020.
  5. ^ a b c d e f "Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons" (PDF). Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
  6. ^ Carlson, Peter (2009). K Blows Top: A Cold War Comic Interlude Starring Nikita Khrushchev, America's Most Unlikely Tourist. PublicAffairs. ISBN 978-1-58648-497-2.
  7. ^ a b c Stevens, Matt; Mele, Christopher (2018). "Causes of False Missile Alerts: The Sun, the Moon and a 46-Cent Chip". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 14 January 2018.
  8. ^ Schneider, Barry (May 1975). "Big Bangs from Little Bombs". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 31 (5): 28. Bibcode:1975BuAtS..31e..24S. doi:10.1080/00963402.1975.11458238. Retrieved 13 July 2009.
  9. ^ Sedgwick, Jessica. "Bombs Over Goldsboro". This Month in North Carolina History (January 2008). Archived from the original on 28 December 2011. Retrieved 24 January 2012.
  10. ^ "Goldsboro Revisited," The Guardian, 20 September 2013, accessed 20 September 2013.
  11. ^ a b c d Sagan, Scott D. (1993). The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons. Princeton University Press. pp. 3, 99–100. ISBN 978-0-691-21306-4.
  12. ^ Rhodes, Richard (19 June 1995). "The General and World War III". The New Yorker. pp. 47–59.
  13. ^ Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, Vintage, Random House, 2009.
  14. ^ "Chronology of Submarine Contact During the Cuban Missile Crisis". National Security Archive of the George Washington University. Retrieved 15 November 2010.
  15. ^ Edward Wilson (27 October 2012). "Thank you Vasili Arkhipov, the man who stopped nuclear war". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  16. ^ Noam Chomsky (2004). Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance. New York: Henry Holt. p. 74. ISBN 0-8050-7688-3.
  17. ^ Michael Dobbs (June 2008). "Lost in Enemy Airspace". Vanity Fair. Retrieved 29 August 2016.
  18. ^ "Air-to-air Missile Non-comparison Table". X-Plane. Retrieved 29 August 2016.
  19. ^ Wall, Michael D. (9 August 2016). "How a 1967 Solar Storm Nearly Led to Nuclear War". Space.com. Retrieved 12 August 2016.
  20. ^ Archive, Robert Wampler of the National Security. "Nixon Considered Nuclear Option Against N. Korea". NPR.org.
  21. ^ Anthony, Summers. "Drunk in charge (part two)". www.theguardian.com.
  22. ^ "Yom Kippur: Israel's 1973 nuclear alert". UPI. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  23. ^ "Did Israel ever consider using nuclear weapons?". Haaretz.com. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  24. ^ a b "The 3 A.M. Phone Call". The National Security Archive. George Washington University. 1 March 2012. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  25. ^ "CBC Digital Archives". CBC.
  26. ^ a b "False Warnings of Soviet Missile Attacks Put U.S. Forces on Alert in 1979-1980". National Security Archive. 5 March 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
  27. ^ Hoffman, David (10 February 1999). "I Had A Funny Feeling in My Gut". Washington Post. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  28. ^ Shane, Scott. "Cold War's Riskiest Moment". Baltimore Sun, 31 August 2003 (article reprinted as The Nuclear War That Almost Happened in 1983). Archived from the original on 19 August 2006.
  29. ^ "Stanislav Petrov, who averted possible nuclear war, dies at 77". BBC. 18 September 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  30. ^ "Stanislav Petrov, 'the man who saved the world' from nuclear war, dies at 77". Los Angeles Times. Associated Press. 21 September 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  31. ^ Myre, Greg (18 September 2017). "Stanislav Petrov, 'The Man Who Saved The World,' Dies At 77". npr. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  32. ^ Daley, Jason (18 September 2017). Man Who Saved the World From Nuclear Annihilation Dies at 77: In 1983, Soviet lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov kept his cool and reported a U.S. missile strike as a false alarm, preventing a massive counterstrike. Smithsonian.com. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  33. ^ Jones, Nate. "The Able Archer 83 Sourcebook". National Security Archive.
  34. ^ "Exercise Scenario" (PDF). National Security Archive. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 June 2013.
  35. ^ a b "The 1983 War Scare: "The Last Paroxysm" of the Cold War Part II". nsarchive.gwu.edu.
  36. ^ Walker, Martin (1993). The Cold War: A History. New York: Henry Holt and Company. p. 276.
  37. ^ Pry, War Scare, 43–4.
  38. ^ Gates, From the Shadows, 271, 272.
  39. ^ Oberdorfer, A New Era, 67.
  40. ^ Hoffman, David (15 March 1998). "Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die". Washington Post Foreign Service.
  41. ^ "January 25, 1995—The Norwegian Rocket Incident". United States European Command. 23 January 2012. Archived from the original on 21 September 2012.

Further reading[edit]