List of target seats in the United Kingdom general election, 2015

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This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 to be held on 7 May 2015.

In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,[2] with an updated list of 10 reported in April 2015,[3] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.[4] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.[5] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.[6][7]

Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.

Labour targets[8] Swing required Conservative targets[9] Swing required Liberal Democrat targets[10] Swing required
1 North Warwickshire (CON) 0.05% Hampstead and Kilburn (LAB) 0.04% Camborne and Redruth (CON) 0.08%
2 Thurrock (CON) 0.10% Bolton West (LAB) 0.10% Oldham East and Saddleworth[note 1] (LAB) 0.12%
3 Hendon (CON) 0.12% Solihull (LD) 0.16% Oxford West and Abingdon (CON) 0.16%
4 Cardiff North (CON) 0.20% Southampton Itchen (LAB) 0.22% Ashfield (LAB) 0.20%
5 Sherwood (CON) 0.22% Mid Dorset and North Poole (LD) 0.29% Sheffield Central (LAB) 0.20%
6 Norwich South (LD) 0.32% Wirral South (LAB) 0.66% Edinburgh South (LAB) 0.36%
7 Stockton South (CON) 0.33% Derby North (LAB) 0.68% Truro and Falmouth (CON) 0.45%
8 Broxtowe (CON) 0.37% Wells (LD) 0.72% Newton Abbot (CON) 0.55%
9 Lancaster and Fleetwood (CON) 0.39% Dudley North (LAB) 0.84% Chesterfield (LAB) 0.60%
10 Bradford East (LD) 0.45% Great Grimsby (LAB) 1.08% Swansea West (LAB) 0.71%
11 Amber Valley (CON) 0.58% Morley and Outwood (LAB) 1.13% Hull North (LAB) 0.96%
12 Waveney (CON) 0.75% Telford (LAB) 1.19% Rochdale (LAB) 0.97%
13 Wolverhampton South West (CON) 0.85% Walsall North (LAB) 1.37% Harrogate and Knaresborough (CON) 0.98%
14 Morecambe and Lunesdale (CON) 1.00% St Austell and Newquay (LD) 1.39% Watford (CON) 1.29%
15 Carlisle (CON) 1.01% Somerton and Frome (LD) 1.50% Hampstead and Kilburn (LAB) 1.51%
16 Stroud (CON) 1.12% Birmingham Edgbaston (LAB) 1.54% Montgomeryshire (CON) 1.75%
17 Weaver Vale (CON) 1.13% Sutton and Cheam (LD) 1.66% Edinburgh North and Leith (LAB) 1.82%
18 Lincoln (CON) 1.16% Halifax (LAB) 1.69% St. Albans (CON) 2.19%
19 Brighton Pavilion (Green) 1.21% Newcastle-under-Lyme (LAB) 1.80% Newport East (LAB) 2.39%
20 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (CON) 1.31% Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (LAB) 1.82% Weston-super-Mare (CON) 2.56%
21 Dewsbury (CON) 1.41% Wakefield (LAB) 1.82% Hereford and Herefordshire South (CON) 2.57%
22 Warrington South (CON) 1.42% St. Ives (LD) 1.87% Torridge and West Devon (CON) 2.68%
23 Brent Central (LD) 1.48% Plymouth Moor View (LAB) 1.91% Winchester (CON) 2.73%
24 Bedford (CON) 1.50% Gedling (LAB) 1.93% Northampton North (CON) 3.09%
25 Brighton Kemptown (CON) 1.56% Eltham (LAB) 1.98% South East Cornwall (CON) 3.25%
26 Pudsey (CON) 1.69% Walsall South (LAB) 2.15% Bristol North West (CON) 3.25%
27 Brentford and Isleworth (CON) 1.82% Nottingham South (LAB) 2.17% City of Durham (LAB) 3.32%
SNP targets Swing required Plaid Cymru targets Swing required
1 Ochil & Perthshire South (LAB) 5.14% Ynys Môn (LAB) 3.55%
Green Party targets Swing required Respect targets Swing required
1 Norwich South (LD) 7.20% Birmingham Hall Green (LAB) 3.9%
Sinn Féin targets Swing required SDLP targets Swing required DUP targets Swing required Alliance targets Swing required
1 Belfast North (DUP) 3.01% Newry and Armagh (SF) 9.3% Belfast East (Alliance) 2.22% Belfast South (SDLP) 15.00%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015". Politicshome.com. Retrieved 3 May 2013. 
  2. ^ "Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats". Telegraph.co.uk. 26 August 2014. 
  3. ^ "Ukip concentrates on key constituencies after it loses ground in polls - Daily Mail Online". Mail Online. 
  4. ^ Roberts, Marcus. "REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome" (PDF). Fabian Society. 
  5. ^ "Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  6. ^ "Will you pledge to vote Green?". Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  7. ^ "The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?". Retrieved 7 March 2015. 
  8. ^ "Labour TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.  External link in |publisher= (help)
  9. ^ "CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.  External link in |publisher= (help)
  10. ^ "LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS". http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.  External link in |publisher= (help)