The Literary Digest
Cover of the 19 February 1921 edition of The Literary Digest
|Founder||Isaac Kaufmann Funk|
|Company||Funk & Wagnalls|
|Based in||New York City|
The Literary Digest was an influential American general interest weekly magazine published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
Beginning with early issues, the emphasis was on opinion articles and an analysis of news events. Established as a weekly newsmagazine, it offered condensations of articles from American, Canadian and European publications. Type-only covers gave way to illustrated covers during the early 1900s. After Isaac Funk's death in 1912, Robert Joseph Cuddihy became the editor. In the 1920s, the covers carried full-color reproductions of famous paintings. By 1927, The Literary Digest climbed to a circulation of over one million. Covers of the final issues displayed various photographic and photo-montage techniques. In 1938, it merged with the Review of Reviews, only to fail soon after. Its subscriber list was bought by Time.
The Literary Digest is best-remembered today for the circumstances surrounding its demise.
From 1916, it conducted a poll regarding the likely outcome of the quadrennial presidential election. Prior to the 1936 election, the poll had always correctly predicted the winner. In 1936, the poll concluded that the Republican candidate, Governor Alfred Landon of Kansas, was likely to be the overwhelming winner.
In November, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt won 46 states, while Landon only won Maine and Vermont; Roosevelt also won the popular vote by 24.26%. The magnitude of the magazine's error (39.08% for the popular vote for Roosevelt v Landon) destroyed the magazine's credibility, and it folded within 18 months of the election.
In hindsight, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were faulty. Although it had polled ten million individuals (of whom 2.27 million responded, an astronomical total for any opinion poll), it had surveyed its own readers first, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time (shown in part by their ability to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression), and two other readily available lists, those of registered automobile owners and that of telephone users, both of which were also wealthier than the average American at the time.
Research published in 1972 and 1988 concluded that as expected this sampling bias was a factor, but non-response bias was the primary source of the error - that is, people who disliked Roosevelt had strong feelings and were more willing to take the time to mail back a response.
George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result of the 1936 election, while Gallup also correctly predicted the (quite different) results of the Literary Digest poll to within 1.1%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000. Gallup's final poll before the election also predicted Roosevelt would receive 56% of the popular vote: the official tally gave Roosevelt 60.8%.
This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques, and later came to be regarded as ushering in the era of modern scientific public opinion research.
- Freedman, David; Pisani, Robert; Purves, Roger (2007). Statistics (4th ed.). New York: Norton. ISBN 0-393-92972-8.
- "Press: Digest Digested". Time. 23 May 1938. Retrieved 8 March 2010.
- "A word a day Man: a biography". Biographical essay. Centre d'études du 19e siècle français Joseph Sablé. Archived from the original on 6 August 2010. Retrieved 18 October 2010.
- "Ewing Galloway Collection of Photographs". Special Collections Research Center. Syracuse University Library. Retrieved 4 June 2013.
- Straw Vote Fight Arouses Interest The Pittsburgh Press; November 2, 1936
- Freedman, et al.: 335-336
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