2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election

← 2015 October 12, 2019 2023 →

Incumbent Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic



The 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election will be held to elect the Governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards is running for re-election to a second term.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 12, 2019, a runoff election will be held on November 16, 2019, between the top two candidates in the primary.[1] Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

Candidates[edit]

Democratic Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Republican Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Potential[edit]

Declined[edit]

Independents[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Gary Landrieu, businessman and perennial candidate[21]

Potential[edit]

  • Beryl Billiot, perennial candidate[22]
  • John Georges, businessman and candidate for Governor in 2007[23]
  • Bob Lang, perennial candidate[22]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron, candidate for Governor in 2015[22]
  • Arden Wells, perennial candidate[22]

Endorsements[edit]

Ralph Abraham
Politicians
John Bel Edwards
Organizations
  • Louisiana Democratic Party[26]

Events prior to the election[edit]

On Inauguration Day, House Republicans, in a break with tradition, elected their own speaker, Rep. Taylor Barras of New Iberia, over Edwards' choice, Rep. Walt Leger of New Orleans. This move was said to be orchestrated by House GOP Chairman Lance Harris, a potential gubernatorial 2019 candidate and frequent Edwards critic.[27] Edwards and Republican Legislative leaders have clashed repeatedly over budget, tax and spending measures.

Attorney General Jeff Landry is perhaps Edwards' most prominent detractor, filing multiple lawsuits against the governor and frequently criticizing him in the media. The two mostly disagree on social policies, such as Landry's staunch opposition to Edwards' executive order providing protections for LGBT workers of state government and contractors.[28] Landry has defeated Edwards in every legal challenge so far.[29] Landry also assumed the leadership of David Vitter's Political Action Committee, the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority. Former Vitter Chief of Staff Kyle Rukert heads the groups' operations.[30] They were instrumental to Clay Higgins' upset Congressional victory over Scott Angelle in 2016 and other Republican gains in the state.[31] Landry has closely aligned with President Donald Trump and attended Trump's 2017 State of the Union speech.[32]

Edwards also become a favorite target of Congressman Garret Graves, a Republican from Baton Rouge and former aide to Governor Bobby Jindal. Graves frequently criticized the governor during the state's response to the 2016 August floods in the state. The two notably sparred during a hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, of which Graves is a member. Edwards' aides called the exchange a "political ambush" while Graves accused the governor of lying.[33] Graves is also closely aligned with the Trump Administration and donated $300 to the Trump Inaugural fund.[34] Graves also accompanied Vice President Mike Pence during a visit to parts of the Baton Rouge area in May 2017.[35]

As the only Democratic Governor in the Deep South, Edwards and his agenda also been the target of numerous attacks from numerous groups affiliated with the Republican Party such as America Rising and Americans for Prosperity.[36] Edwards, however, has said he is unbothered by and "just doesn't pay attention to" those groups. He went on to classify them as "a Washington, D.C., political action committee, trying to bring the never-ending campaign cycle to Louisiana."[36]

Aware of their gubernatorial ambitions, Edwards and his aides have repeatedly spoofed both John Kennedy and Jeff Landry during their traditional response skits at Baton Rouge's Gridiron Show.[37]

According to fundraising reports filed in 2016, Edwards had raised close to $3.3 million for his 2019 re-election effort.[38][39] By comparison, Landry had $544,000 on hand for a potential future campaign.[39] Graves and Kennedy had yet to form separate entities for statewide campaigns per Louisiana Law.

In the summer of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser announced that he would not be a candidate for governor in 2019, and had decided to run for re-election. Nungesser, said that running for re-election was his plan all along and he had disclosed those plans to then Governor-Elect John Bel Edwards during the transition.

As of the fall of 2017, Congressman Ralph Abraham was reported to be running polls and assembling a staff to enter the race.

General election[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics Apr 25–29, 2019 650 ± 3.8% 38% 23% 7% 32%
Remington (R)[A] Mar 13–14, 2019 1,464 ± 2.6% 44% 33% 10% 13%
LJR Custom Strategies (D)[B] Jan 14–27, 2019 600 45% 17% 4% 1% 32%
Remington (R)[A] Dec 11–12, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 43% 31% 9% 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
John
Kennedy (R)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Oct 15–21, 2018 605 ± 4.9% 36% 6% 30% 8% 4% 18%
35% 38% 5% 21%
Remington Sep 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 40% 8% 37% 3% 12%
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Jun 19–22, 2018 600 ± 4.8% 35% 8% 35% 22%

Runoff[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Lean D April 19, 2019
Inside Elections[41] Tossup April 19, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] Lean D December 6, 2018

Polling[edit]

with Ralph Abraham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
Undecided
JMC Analytics Apr 25–29, 2019 650 ± 3.8% 40% 36% 24%
Remington (R)[A] Mar 13–14, 2019 1,464 ± 2.6% 47% 45% 8%
LJR Custom Strategies (D)[B] Jan 14–27, 2019 600 47% 27%
Remington (R)[A] Dec 11–12, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 44% 44% 12%
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Oct 15–21, 2018 605 ± 4.9% 45% 37% 18%
Remington Sep 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 48% 35% 17%
Mason-Dixon Feb 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 51% 28% 21%
with Eddie Rispone
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
Undecided
JMC Analytics Apr 25–29, 2019 650 ± 3.8% 41% 28% 31%
Remington (R)[A] Mar 13–14, 2019 1,464 ± 2.6% 48% 42% 10%
LJR Custom Strategies (D)[B] Jan 14–27, 2019 600 47% 19%
Remington (R)[A] Dec 11–12, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 46% 39% 15%
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Oct 15–21, 2018 605 ± 4.9% 47% 33% 19%
Remington Sep 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 52% 29% 19%
Hypothetical polling
with John Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
John
Kennedy (R)
Undecided
Bernie R. Pinsonat, Inc. Nov 16–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 49% 6%
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Oct 15–21, 2018 605 ± 4.9% 39% 48% 14%
Remington Sep 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 43% 47% 10%
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Jun 19–22, 2018 600 ± 4.8% 37% 51%
Mason-Dixon Feb 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
with Jeff Landry
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA (R)[C] Oct 15–21, 2018 605 ± 4.9% 44% 39% 17%
with Steve Scalise
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Steve
Scalise (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the Ralph Abraham campaign
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Education Reform Now Advocacy, the 501(c)(3) arm of Democrats for Education Reform
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by the John Kennedy campaign

References[edit]

  1. ^ https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/PublishedDocuments/ElectionsCalendar2019.pdf
  2. ^ "Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards: 'I am running again in four years'". The Advocate. Retrieved August 20, 2016.
  3. ^ "Gov. John Bel Edwards makes it official with roll out of re-election campaign pitch video". The Advocate. Retrieved January 22, 2019.
  4. ^ Yakowenko, Taylor (December 6, 2018). "Ralph Abraham announces run for Governor". KNOE. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
  5. ^ "And Now...Eddie Rispone For Governor?". The Hayride. August 10, 2018. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
  6. ^ "Rispone 'definitely running' for Louisiana governor - Baton Rouge Business Report". Baton Rouge Business Report. October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
  7. ^ a b "Danae Columbus: Skrmetta and Boustany, two new contenders for governor's race? – Uptown Messenger". uptownmessenger.com. Retrieved December 14, 2018.
  8. ^ Rabalais, Mitch; Alford, Jeremy (January 15, 2019). "The Tuesday Tracker, Sponsored By Harris, DeVille & Associates". LaPolitics. Retrieved January 15, 2019.
  9. ^ a b @LaPoliticsNow (December 3, 2018). "Sens. Bret Allain and @ConradAppel tell LaPolitics that they will not be running for governor next year. #LaLege #LaGov" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ^ Hilburn, Greg (December 4, 2018). "Louisiana governor's race: Who's In? Who's Out? Who's on the clock?". WWL. Retrieved December 5, 2018.
  11. ^ "lapolitics.com/tuesday-tracker/". LaPolitics.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  12. ^ a b @LaPoliticsNow (December 3, 2018). ".@RepAlanSeabaugh and @CameronHenryLA also confirm that they will not be running for governor next year. #LaLege #LaGov" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. ^ Hilburn, Greg (April 11, 2019). "BREAKING: Sen. Hewitt won't run for governor 'for now'". The News-Star. Retrieved April 11, 2019.
  14. ^ "Sen. John Kennedy announced he's not running for Louisiana Governor". WAFB. December 3, 2018. Retrieved December 3, 2018.
  15. ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (November 14, 2018). "Jeff Landry to run for re-election, not Louisiana governor". The Advocate. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  16. ^ "BAYHAM: A Very Early Look At 2019". TheHayride.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  17. ^ Stole, Bryn (November 12, 2018). "U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise, on whirlwind book tour, rejects run for governor and returns to Congress". The New Orleans Advocate. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  18. ^ Hilburn, Greg (December 10, 2018). "Governor's race: Schroder's out; Hewitt's on the clock". The News-Star. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
  19. ^ Yokley, ELI. "Vitter Won't Seek Re-Election After Louisiana Governor's Loss". Roll Call.
  20. ^ Rainey, Richard. "David Vitter to join Mercury Public Affairs lobbying firm". NOLA.com.
  21. ^ "Elect Gary Landrieu for Governor". Elect Gary Landrieu for Governor. Retrieved January 29, 2019.
  22. ^ a b c d mballard@theadvocate.com, mark ballard. "Five longshot contenders insist they could be next Louisiana governor". The Advocate. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  23. ^ "John Georges could shape the Louisiana governor's race if he decided to run". NOLA.com. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  24. ^ a b Hilburn, Greg (May 13, 2019). "Abraham campaign releases new endorsements". Monroe News Star. Retrieved May 14, 2019.
  25. ^ a b "Abraham Posts 125 Endorsements From Elected Officials". Ralph Abraham for Governor. May 1, 2019. Retrieved May 11, 2019.
  26. ^ "Louisiana Democrats - no surprise - endorse John Bel Edwards". al.com. March 9, 2019. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  27. ^ mballard@theadvocate.com, mark ballard. "In rarely seen twist, last-minute candidate Taylor Barras selected Louisiana House speaker". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  28. ^ "John Bel Edwards, Jeff Landry head to court over LGBT issues: 4 things to know". NOLA.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  29. ^ "John Bel Edwards' LGBT protections declared unlawful". NOLA.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  30. ^ http://www.washingtontimes.com, The Washington Times. "Analysis: Jeff Landry to take leadership role of Vitter PAC". The Washington Times. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  31. ^ "Louisiana congressional race: Career public servant vs. YouTube star". NOLA.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  32. ^ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "AG Jeff Landry in Washington, D.C., with attorneys general group that met with President Donald Trump". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  33. ^ rallen@theadvocate.com, REBEKAH ALLEN |. "U.S. Rep. Garret Graves, Gov. John Bel Edwards sniping about flood recovery, again". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  34. ^ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "Louisiana residents give more than $1M to Trump's inauguration". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  35. ^ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "VP Mike Pence vows 'Obamacare' repeal, touts budget plan and returns to flooded home during Louisiana trip". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  36. ^ a b ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "National GOP-backing group launches site against John Bel Edwards, 'The Accidental Governor'". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  37. ^ tbridges@theadvocate.com, tyler bridges |. "Who stayed? Who went? Who never left? People, groups, things after Gov. John Bel Edwards took over". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  38. ^ tbridges@theadvocate.com, TYLER BRIDGES |. "Gov. John Bel Edwards, once long-shot candidate, building war chest ahead of 2019 re-election campaign". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  39. ^ a b Press, Associated. "In 2019 governor's race, John Bel Edwards has hefty fundraising lead on potential challenger Jeff Landry". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  40. ^ "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  41. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  42. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites