Metaculus

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Metaculus, Inc.
Metaculus front page.png
Metaculus front page
Type of businessPrivate
Available inEnglish
Founded2015; 6 years ago (2015)
Country of originUnited States
Area servedWorldwide
Founder(s)
  • Anthony Aguirre
  • Max Wainwright
  • Greg Laughlin
ChairmanAnthony Aguirre
CEOGaia Dempsey
Employees10
URLmetaculus.com
AdvertisingNo
CommercialYes
Current statusActive

Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.[2][3]

Reward system[edit]

Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[4] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[5] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[6]

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[7] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[8]

In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.[9] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.[10]

History[edit]

Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.[11][12]

In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.[13] The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[14]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Predicting the Future (of Life), in Future of Life Institute published January 24, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  2. ^ The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
  3. ^ This Site Keeps Track of Elon Musk’s Predictions About The Future, in Futurism published March 10, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  4. ^ The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
  5. ^ Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  6. ^ Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  7. ^ Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019
  8. ^ Metaculus FAQ
  9. ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (January 15, 2020). "The Bentham prize". Metaculus. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
  10. ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (February 13, 2020). "The Li Wenliang prize series for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak". Metaculus. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
  11. ^ Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  12. ^ The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published 18 October 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  13. ^ Metaculus Track Record'
  14. ^ Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019

External links[edit]