Mexican general election, 2018

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Mexican general election, 2018
Mexico
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Andrés Manuel López Obrador (agosto de 2017 cropped).jpg
Jose-Antonio-Meade (cropped).jpg
Candidate Ricardo Anaya Cortés Andrés Manuel López Obrador José Antonio Meade Kuribreña
Party PAN MORENA PRI
Alliance For Mexico to the Front[2][3] Together We Will Make History (es)[4][5] Everyone for Mexico[1]
Home state Querétaro Tabasco Mexico City

  Riospiter (cropped).jpg Jaime H. Rodriguez.jpg Margarita Zavala De Calderon (cropped).jpg
Candidate Armando Rios Piter [6] Jaime Heliodoro Rodríguez Calderón Margarita Ester Zavala Gómez del Campo
Party Independent Independent Independent
Home state Guerrero Nuevo León Mexico City

Mexico presidential election results 2018.png

Incumbent President

Enrique Peña Nieto
PRI



Seal of the Government of Mexico.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Mexico
Foreign relations

General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 1 July 2018.[7] Voters will elect a new president to serve a six-year term, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 128 members of the Senate. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections.

Incumbent president Enrique Peña Nieto is not eligible for a second term according to Mexico's constitution.

Electoral system[edit]

The country's president is elected by plurality in a single round of voting.[8]

The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods; 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 200 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation, with seats allocated using the simple quotient and largest remainder method. No party is allowed to hold more than 300 seats.[9]

The 128 members of the Senate are also elected by two methods, with 96 elected in 32 three-seat constituencies based on the states and 32 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. In the three-seat constituencies two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes.[10]

Presidential candidates[edit]

None of the political parties have had a formal announcement of candidacy for the 2018 general election. The National Indigenous Congress announced on 28 May 2017 the election of María de Jesús Patricio Martínez as spokeswoman and indigenous representative for the 2018 general election, aiming to obtain an independent candidacy.[11]

Everyone for Mexico (Todos por México) (PRI, PVEM, and Nueva Alianza) coalition[edit]

PRIPVEMPANAL.png
The method for choosing the presidential candidate will be through a convention of delegates. The PRI will hold its convention of delegates on 18 February 2018.[12] José Antonio Meade Kuribreña was the only candidate to register for the nomination, thus, making him the “presumptive nominee”.[13]

Presumptive Nominee[edit]

For Mexico to the Front (Por México al Frente) (PAN, PRD, and MC) coalition[edit]

Partidos que forman parte del Frente Ciudadano por México.png
It has been announced that the center-right National Action Party, and the centre-left parties of PRD, and MC, both of whom nominated Andrés Manuel López Obrador twice to the elections of 2006 and 2012, will go together in an electoral alliance for the election, this in order to create a broader front and defeat Mexico’s ruling party, PRI, and also defeat the election front runner, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.[14][15][16][3]

On September 5, the front was officially registered before the National Electoral Institute.[2] On December 8, the coalition changed its name to "Por México al Frente". The next day, PAN president, Ricardo Anaya Cortés, resigned from his position and expressed his intentions to be the candidate for the alliance.[17]

Meanwhile, former first lady, Margarita Zavala, submitted her resignation from the PAN on October 6, having been a member for 33 years, and registered as an independent candidate six days later.[18] She will seek the presidency through an independent bid.

Presumptive Nominee[edit]

Together we will make history (Juntos haremos historia) (MORENA, PT, and PES) coalition[edit]

Alianza por la esperanza de México.svg
On December 12, Andrés Manuel López Obrador registered as the presumptive nominee for MORENA and submitted his resignation as president of the party.[19]

Presumptive Nominee[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

Polls by party preference.

Campaign[edit]

It is believed that the PRI has hired Venezuelan right-wing political strategist JJ Rendón to work in their campaign, as he stated in January that he would do "everything within the law to prevent López Obrador from becoming President"; Rendón had previously worked for the PRI during Peña Nieto's 2012 presidential campaign.[20].

As in the 2006 and 2012 elections, the 2018 campaign has featured numerous acussations and attack ads directed at the leftist frontrunner candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who will be contesting the elections with the support of his party MORENA ("Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional", "National Regeneration Movement"). A Red Scare-like campaign has been used by the PRI and PAN candidates to convince voters that an AMLO victory would turn Mexico into "another Venezuela"[21][22]. In a speech, PRI president Ochoa Reza stated that "if the people from MORENA like Venezuela so much, they should just go and live in there"[23].

In January, former president Felipe Calderón shared a video on his social media, in which a Venezuelan citizen living in Mexico warned voters not to vote for AMLO, as he would put Mexico in the "path to ruin" like Chavismo had done in her country. It later surfaced that the woman, whose name is Carmen Martilez, is an actress who previously had uploaded a video in which she asked for street vendors to be "exterminated"[24].

In that same month, the PRI began to claim that AMLO's campaign is being supported by "Venezuelan and Russian interests". AMLO dismissed the acussations, and later joked about them, calling himself "Andrés Manuelovich"[25][26].

Later in January, citizens across the country received phone calls procedent from the city of Puebla, in which a pre-recorded audio warned them not to vote for AMLO because he has supposedly agreed to sell the Mexican oil to "the Russians". The MORENA representant in Puebla has asked for an investigation into said phone calls.[27][28].

Also in January, AMLO uploaded a video on his social media asking president Peña Nieto and PRI president Ochoa Reza to "calm down", and advised them to take some "AMLOdipine"[29].

A jingle entitled "Movimiento Naranja", which was recorded for the political party Movimiento Ciudadano (which is part of the "Por México al Frente" coalition alongside the PAN and the PRD) and performed by an indigenous child called Yuawi, became viral and Yuawi turned into a celebrity overnight[30][31]. Drawing on its success, the pre-candidate for the Frente, Ricardo Anaya recorded a video in which he performs the song with Yuawi[32].

PRI candidate José Antonio Meade was accused of plagiarism when it was noted that one of his ads, in which he critizises a "populist" speech on TV, was identical to an ad that had been used by Justin Trudeau when he became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in 2013[33]. Later on PRI's Enrique Ochoa made a tweet and quickly deleted it, where he referred to PRI politicians who defected to MORENA as "Prietos que no aprientan (dark skined people who can't get a hold)" while trying to make a pun on the word PRI-etos (because MORENA is a synonim for prietos), the expression was criticized as interpreted as racist by Regeneracion[34] and news journalist Jorge Ramos.[35] Pajaro Politico later revealed that Jose Antonio Meade defended Enrique Ochoa's ussage of the expression.[36] On February 19, 2018, Regeneracion published an article accusing Enrique Ocho Reza of owning a $15 million pesos house near a golf club in Morelia, stating the posibility of it being bought with public money.[37]

Controversies[edit]

Foreign intervention[edit]

There have been accusations of other countries trying to intervene in the Mexican electoral process. As early as April 2017, then US Secretary of Homeland Security John F. Kelly stated that the election of a left-wing president in Mexico "would not be good for America or Mexico". The statement was widely believed to be a reference to López Obrador, the leftist, frontrunner candidate, and created controversy in Mexico, as it seemed to be an attempt to influence the election against him.[38][39][40]

In December 2017, US National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster claimed that Russia has launched a campaign to "influence Mexico’s 2018 presidential election and stir up division", without defining the methods of the supposed meddling, or indicating which would be the candidate favoured by the Kremlin. The Russian government has denied the claims.[41] PRI president Enrique Ochoa Reza affirmed, without evidence, that "Russian and Venezuelan interests" are supporting López Obrador's campaign.[42] López Obrador has responded that Ochoa's declarations are part of a smear campaign against him[43], and later posted a video on his social media, where he joked about the claims and called himself "Andres Manuelovich".[44] [45]

Guatemalan right-wing commentator Gloria Álvarez has embarked on a tour troughout Mexico, calling AMLO a "dangerous populist" and urging Mexican citizens not to vote for him. She was invited to a PAN legislators assembly on January 31, where she critized the alliance with the PRD, which she called "a party just like MORENA".[46][47]

US Senators Bob Menendez and Marco Rubio asked US secretary of State Rex Tillerson to "fight Russian meddling" in the Mexican elections[48]. In February 2, during a summit in Mexico, Tillerson stated that Mexico should "beware the Russian interference"[49]. Dr. Tony Payan, director of the Mexico Center at Rice University noted that there has been no evidence of actual Russian tampering in the Mexican electoral process, and considered the acussations "absurd" given that the Trump administration "will not admit Russia interfered in the US election"[50].

Internal intervention and warnings towards the possibility of the PRI committing electoral fraud[edit]

In December 2017, Mexican newspaper Regeneracion has warned about the possibility of the PRI committing an electoral fraud, citing the controversial law of internal security that the PRI senators approved as the means to diminish the protests towards such electoral fraud.[51] The website Bloomberg also supported that possible outcome, with Tony Payan, director of the Houston's Mexico Center at Rice University’s Baker Institute suggesting that both vote buyout and computer hackings were possible, citing the 1988 previous electoral fraud committed by the PRI. Bloomberg's article also suggested Meade could be also receiving unfair help from the over-budget amounts of money spent in publicity by incumbent president Enrique Peña Nieto (who also campaigned with the PRI).[52] A December 2017 New York Times article reported Enrique Peña Nieto spent about 2 billion dollars on publicity during his first 5 years as president, the largest publicity budget ever to have been spent by a Mexican president. Additionally the article mentioned concerns about 68 percent of news journalists admitting to not believe to have enough freedom of speech. To support the statement the article mentioned the time award-winning news reporter Carmen Aristegui was controversially, and some debate illegally fired,[53] shortly after revealing the Mexican White House scandals (concerning a conflict of interest regarding a house owned by Enrique Peña Nieto).[54]

Additionally, Meade has spent more pre-campaign propaganda budget than Lopez Obrador and Anaya together, while failing to report where his budget came from, while in contrast Lopez Obrador has attended the most events while spending the fewest money and succesfully reporting better than his rivals where he obtained the resources to pay such events.[55] News media also reported that at a Meade event at Cancun was a complete failure, when instead of the thousands persons expected only 53 attended.[56]

During 2017, the PRI had already faced serious alegations of electoral fraud, concerning the election of Peña Nieto's cousin Alfredo del Mazo Maza as Governor of the state of Mexico. Despite the official vote results given by the INE (Electoral National Institute) giving the win to Del Mazo, the election was marred by irregularities including reports of vote-buying,[57] spending beyond legal campaign finance limits,[58] and electoral counts that gave del Mazo extra votes that awarded the election to him.[59] In November 2017, magazine Proceso published an article accusing the PRI of breaking at least 16 state laws during the elections, which were denounced 619 times. They said that all of them were broken in order to favor del Mazo during the election.[60]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "'Todos por México' será el nombre de coalición de Meade". Excelsior (in Spanish). 2018-01-15. Retrieved 2018-01-15. 
  2. ^ a b "Formalizan PAN, PRD y MC Frente ante INE". www.reforma.com. Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  3. ^ a b "Registran Frente Amplio ante el INE". El Universal (in Spanish). 5 September 2017. Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  4. ^ "Aprueba PT coalición con Morena en elecciones de 2018". SDPnoticias.com (in Spanish). 25 June 2017. Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  5. ^ "PES irá en alianza con Morena para presidencial de 2018". SDPnoticias.com (in Spanish). 2017-11-26. Retrieved 2017-11-27. 
  6. ^ "Ríos Piter está a punto; 'Bronco' y Margarita, casi". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2018-01-24. Retrieved 2018-01-24. 
  7. ^ Electoral Calendar Senate of the Republic (in Spanish)
  8. ^ Mexico IFES
  9. ^ Electoral system IPU
  10. ^ Electoral system IPU
  11. ^ Concheiro, Luciano (28 May 2017). "Los pueblos indígenas de México eligen a su vocera e irrumpen en el escenario político (The indigenous peoples of Mexico elect their spokesperson and break into the political scene)". The New York Times (in Spanish). ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 1 June 2017. 
  12. ^ Mexican ruling party to pick presidential candidate Feb. 18 Yahoo News, 24 November 2017
  13. ^ José Antonio Meade, oficial precandidato del PRI para 2018 Debate, 3 December 2017
  14. ^ "PAN, PRD y MC avalan Frente pero sin definir sus alcances". Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  15. ^ "Se confirma el Frente Opositor: PAN, MC y PRD irán en alianza para 2018". DiarioCambio.com.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  16. ^ "El PAN, el PRD y Movimiento Ciudadano constituirán un frente común para 2018". Expansión (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 September 2017. 
  17. ^ "Anaya renunció al PAN, va por candidatura del Frente" (in Spanish). Político MX. 9 September 2017. Retrieved 9 December 2017. 
  18. ^ "Zavala renuncia al PAN, buscará candidatura independiente" (in Spanish). Político MX. 6 October 2017. Retrieved 11 December 2017. 
  19. ^ "AMLO registra precandidatura y anuncia proyecto de nación" (in Spanish). Excelsior. 13 December 2017. Retrieved 16 January 2018. 
  20. ^ "PRI se desmarca del publicista JJ Rendón; AMLO pide evitar violencia política". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). 14 January 2018. Retrieved 14 January 2018. 
  21. ^ "La campaña del miedo contra AMLO". Periodismo Negro (in Spanish). 19 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  22. ^ "Las Campañas del miedo". Diario de Yucatán (in Spanish). 11 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  23. ^ "Si a los de Morena les gusta Venezuela, que se vayan a vivir allá: Ochoa". Periodismo Negro (in Spanish). 15 November 2017. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  24. ^ ""Venezolana" que llora y pide no votar por AMLO, también quiere exterminar vendedores en CdMx". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 19 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  25. ^ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-politics/andres-manuelovich-mexican-leftist-laughs-off-russia-election-jabs-idUSKBN1F735X
  26. ^ https://aristeguinoticias.com/tag/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador/
  27. ^ "Arman campaña contra AMLO en Puebla; "los rusos vienen a quitarnos nuestro petróleo", dicen en llamadas". Proceso (in Spanish). 31 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  28. ^ "Pedirán que se investiguen llamadas telefónicas contra AMLO". El Sol de Puebla (in Spanish). 31 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  29. ^ "Amlodipino is for whatever ails EPN". Mexico News Daily. 18 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  30. ^ "Movimiento Naranja, la propaganda política que suena hasta en las discotecas". Semana (in Spanish). 20 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  31. ^ "'Movimiento Naranja' la pegadiza canción de una campaña política que suena en todas partes". Europa FM (in Spanish). 22 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  32. ^ "Yuawi y Anaya se avientan un "palomazo"". Milenio (in Spanish). 23 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  33. ^ "Destacan parecido estilo en spot de Meade a uno de Trudeau". SDP Noticias (in Spanish). 18 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  34. ^ https://twitter.com/RegeneracionMx/status/962456096232394752
  35. ^ https://twitter.com/jorgeramosnews/status/962676460170465280
  36. ^ https://twitter.com/Pajaropolitico/status/963284157307805698
  37. ^ https://regeneracion.mx/priista-que-denuncio-casa-de-15-mdp-de-ochoa-reza-reta-a-que-lo-demande/
  38. ^ Dinan, Stephen (5 April 2017). "Trump administration wades into Mexican election, warns against left-wing candidate". The Washington Times. Retrieved 9 January 2018. 
  39. ^ "Mexico urges respect from U.S. for 2018 presidential election". Reuters. 6 April 2017. Retrieved 9 January 2018. 
  40. ^ "Mexico wants John Kelly and John McCain to butt out of its election". Business Insider. 17 April 2017. Retrieved 9 January 2018. 
  41. ^ "Russia meddling in Mexican election: White House aide McMaster". Reuters. 7 January 2018. Retrieved 9 January 2018. 
  42. ^ "Intereses de Rusia y Venezuela apoyan a "López": PRI". Proceso (in Spanish). 12 January 2018. Retrieved 14 January 2018. 
  43. ^ "PRI se desmarca del publicista JJ Rendón; AMLO pide evitar violencia política". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). 14 January 2018. Retrieved 14 January 2018. 
  44. ^ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-politics/andres-manuelovich-mexican-leftist-laughs-off-russia-election-jabs-idUSKBN1F735X
  45. ^ https://aristeguinoticias.com/tag/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador/
  46. ^ "Preparación académica, la mejor arma contra el populismo: politóloga". Milenio (in Spanish). 31 January 2018. Retrieved 30 September 2017. 
  47. ^ "Critican en plenaria a panistas por aliarse al PRD". El Universal (in Spanish). 31 January 2018. Retrieved 31 January 2018. 
  48. ^ "Senators ask Tillerson to fight Russian interference in Mexico election: report". TheHill. 31 January 2018. Retrieved 2 February 2018. 
  49. ^ "Tillerson warns Mexico to watch Russian election meddling". Business Insider. 2 February 2018. Retrieved 2 February 2018. 
  50. ^ "Rex Tillerson urged to raise Russian meddling in Mexico election on upcoming trip to region". The Independent. 2 February 2018. Retrieved 2 February 2018. 
  51. ^ https://regeneracion.mx/pri-prepara-un-fraude-electoral-en-2018-alertan-academicos-y-expertos/
  52. ^ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-18/mexico-s-biggest-election-could-turn-dirty-it-s-happened-before
  53. ^ http://www.proceso.com.mx/496611/juez-declara-ilegal-la-cancelacion-del-programa-aristegui-en-mvs
  54. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/es/2017/12/25/con-su-enorme-presupuesto-de-publicidad-el-gobierno-mexicano-controla-los-medios-de-comunicacion-pri-pena-nieto/
  55. ^ https://aristeguinoticias.com/0301/mexico/meade-no-reporta-ingresos-ante-ine-y-gasta-mas-del-doble-que-anaya-y-amlo-juntos/
  56. ^ https://regeneracion.mx/meade-ante-50-seguidores-dice-que-encarcelara-y-quitara-propiedades-a-politicos-corruptos/
  57. ^ Hernández, Leopoldo (4 June 2017). "Denuncian compra de votos a favor de Alfredo del Mazo". El Economista. Retrieved 9 June 2017. 
  58. ^ Olvera, Dulce (8 June 2017). "Del Mazo gastó 412 millones 225 mil en Edomex, cuando sólo podía disponer de 285 millones: Morena". SinEmbargo. Retrieved 9 June 2017. 
  59. ^ "El PREP sumó al PRI 238 mil 145 votos de más en el Edomex, con los que da ventaja a Del Mazo". SinEmbargo. 7 June 2017. Retrieved 9 June 2017. 
  60. ^ http://www.proceso.com.mx/511392/ni-libre-ni-autentica-la-eleccion-en-edomex-ni-fraude

External links[edit]