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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

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This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college.[1][2] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts. Retrospective analyses differ as to why the polls and commentators interpreting them were unable to correctly forecast the result of the election.[1][2] Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often incorrectly predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.[3]

Aggregate polls[edit]

Poll numbers verified as of November 8, 2016.

Race Poll model Hillary
Clinton

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Gary
Johnson

Libertarian
Jill
Stein

Green
Leading by
(points)
Two-way 270 to Win[4] 47.2% 43.6% 3.6
BBC 48.0% 44.0% 4.0
HuffPost Pollster[5] 47.3% 42.0% 5.3
New York Times 45.9% 42.8% 3.1
Real Clear Politics 46.8% 43.6% 3.2
TPM Polltracker 48.8% 43.9% 4.9
Three-way FiveThirtyEight 45.7% 41.8% 4.8% 3.9
HuffPost Pollster[5] 45.7% 40.8% 5.0% 4.9
New York Times 45.4% 42.3% 5.0% 3.1
TPM Polltracker 46.0% 44.1% 4.9% 1.9
Four-way 270 to Win[4] 45.6% 42.5% 4.8% 2.1% 3.1
Real Clear Politics 45.5% 42.2% 4.7% 1.9% 3.3
CNN Poll of Polls 46.0% 42.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0
TPM Polltracker 46.6% 43.8% 4.6% 2.7% 2.8
Election results (popular vote) 48.2% 46.1% 3.3% 1.1% 2.1

Individual polls[edit]

Two-way race[edit]

After convention nominations[edit]

Polls conducted in 2016[edit]

Polls in 2016

Polls conducted in 2015[edit]

Polls in 2015
Poll source Date Democratic
candidate
% Republican
candidate
% Leading by % Sample
Size
Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports[400] December 22–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton 37% Donald Trump 36% 1 1000 ± 3.0%
CNN/ORC[401] December 17–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 49% Donald Trump 47% 2 927 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 49% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Ted Cruz 48% 2
Ipsos/Reuters[402] December 16–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 39% Donald Trump 27% 12 1627 ± 2.8–3.7%
Emerson College Polling Society[403] December 17–20, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 41% 5 754 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 45% Tied
Hillary Clinton 48% Donald Trump 46% 2
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 45% 2
Quinnipiac University[404] December 16–20, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Donald Trump 40% 7 1140 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 44% Marco Rubio 43% 1
Hillary Clinton 44% Ted Cruz 44% Tied
Bernie Sanders 51% Donald Trump 38% 13
Bernie Sanders 42% Marco Rubio 45% 3
Bernie Sanders 43% Ted Cruz 44% 1
Fox News[405] December 16–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton 49% Donald Trump 38% 11 1013 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 45% Ted Cruz 45% Tied
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 45% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 44% 2
Public Policy Polling[406] December 16–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 43% 3 1267 ± 2.8%
Hillary Clinton 45% Ted Cruz 43% 2
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 45% Ben Carson 45% Tied
Hillary Clinton 44% Jeb Bush 39% 5
Bernie Sanders 41% Donald Trump 43% 2
Bernie Sanders 41% Ted Cruz 42% 1
Bernie Sanders 39% Marco Rubio 42% 3
Bernie Sanders 41% Ben Carson 41% Tied
Bernie Sanders 41% Jeb Bush 42% 1
Morning Consult[407] December 11–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 38% 8 4038 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 35% 11
Hillary Clinton 45% Ben Carson 39% 6
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 36% 9
Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 37% 9
ABC News/Washington Post[408] December 10–13, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 44% 6 851 ± 3.5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[409] December 6–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 40% 10 1000 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 45% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 47% 1
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 48% 3
Hillary Clinton 51% Jeb Bush 49% 2
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 50% Tied
Hillary Clinton 51% Rand Paul 49% 2
Hillary Clinton 52% Ted Cruz 48% 4
Hillary Clinton 51% Ben Carson 49% 2
Hillary Clinton 52% Carly Fiorina 48% 4
Morning Consult[410] December 3–7, 2015
Hillary Clinton 41% Jeb Bush 41% Tied 2047 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 40% Chris Christie 40% Tied
Hillary Clinton 40% Ben Carson 45% 5
Hillary Clinton 40% Marco Rubio 41% 1
Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 45% 5
Hillary Clinton 42% Ted Cruz 40% 2
USA Today/Suffolk University[411] December 2–6, 2015 Hillary Clinton 48% Donald Trump 44% 4 1000 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 45% 2
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 48% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 45% 1
Saint Leo University Polling Institute[412] November 29 – December 3, 2015 Hillary Clinton 51% Ben Carson 38% 13 1007 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 48% Marco Rubio 38% 10
Hillary Clinton 51% Donald Trump 37% 14
Hillary Clinton 52% Ted Cruz 36% 16
Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 35% 14
Hillary Clinton 51% Carly Fiorina 32% 19
MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist[413] November 15 – December 2, 2015 Hillary Clinton 52% Donald Trump 41% 11 2360 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 51% Ted Cruz 44% 7
Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 45% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Marco Rubio 45% 3
Hillary Clinton 48% Ben Carson 47% 1
CNN/ORC[414] November 27 – December 1, 2015
Hillary Clinton 49% Donald Trump 46% 3 1020 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 50% 3
Hillary Clinton 48% Marco Rubio 49% 1
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 47% 3
Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 47% 2
Quinnipiac University[415] November 23–30, 2015
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 43% 3 1453 ± 2.6%
Hillary Clinton 47% Donald Trump 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 42% 5
Bernie Sanders 47% Ben Carson 41% 6
Bernie Sanders 49% Donald Trump 41% 8
Bernie Sanders 44% Marco Rubio 43% 1
Bernie Sanders 49% Ted Cruz 39% 10
ABC News/Washington Post[416] November 16–19, 2015
Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 43% 3 1004 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 42% 8
Hillary Clinton 49% Ben Carson 40% 9
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 43% 4
Fox News[417] November 16–19, 2015
Bernie Sanders 41% Donald Trump 46% 5 1016 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 41% Donald Trump 46% 5
Hillary Clinton 42% Ben Carson 47% 5
Hillary Clinton 42% Marco Rubio 50% 8
Hillary Clinton 41% Ted Cruz 45% 4
Hillary Clinton 39% Jeb Bush 45% 6
Hillary Clinton 42% Carly Fiorina 42% Tied
Hillary Clinton 43% Chris Christie 46% 3
Public Policy Polling[418] November 16–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton 43% Jeb Bush 41% 2 1360 ± 2.7%
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 45% 1
Hillary Clinton 46% Ted Cruz 44% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Carly Fiorina 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 45% 2
Hillary Clinton 45% Donald Trump 44% 1
Bernie Sanders 39% Jeb Bush 42% 3
Bernie Sanders 39% Ben Carson 46% 7
Bernie Sanders 39% Ted Cruz 44% 5
Bernie Sanders 40% Carly Fiorina 42% 2
Bernie Sanders 38% Marco Rubio 44% 6
Bernie Sanders 41% Donald Trump 44% 3
McClatchy-Marist[419] October 29 – November 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton 56% Donald Trump 41% 15 540 ± 4.2%
Hillary Clinton 50% Ben Carson 48% 2
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 45% 5
Hillary Clinton 52% Jeb Bush 44% 8
Hillary Clinton 53% Ted Cruz 43% 10
Hillary Clinton 53% Carly Fiorina 43% 10
Bernie Sanders 53% Donald Trump 41% 12
Bernie Sanders 45% Ben Carson 47% 2
Bernie Sanders 48% Marco Rubio 45% 3
Bernie Sanders 51% Jeb Bush 41% 10
Bernie Sanders 51% Ted Cruz 39% 12
Bernie Sanders 53% Carly Fiorina 39% 14
Quinnipiac University[420] October 29 – November 2, 2015 Hillary Clinton 40% Ben Carson 50% 10 1144 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 41% Marco Rubio 46% 5
Hillary Clinton 43% Ted Cruz 46% 3
Hillary Clinton 41% Chris Christie 46% 5
Bernie Sanders 39% Ben Carson 51% 12
Bernie Sanders 46% Donald Trump 44% 2
Bernie Sanders 41% Marco Rubio 47% 6
Bernie Sanders 44% Ted Cruz 45% 1
Bernie Sanders 42% Chris Christie 45% 3
Morning Consult[421] October 29 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 39% 6 2350 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 37% 10
Hillary Clinton 43% Ben Carson 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 39% 6
Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 44% Tied
Hillary Clinton 46% Carly Fiorina 36% 10
Bay News 9/News 13/SurveyUSA[422] October 28 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton 43% Donald Trump 47% 4 2712 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 44% Ben Carson 47% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 44% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 45% 1
Hillary Clinton 48% Carly Fiorina 42% 6
Bernie Sanders 41% Donald Trump 50% 9
Bernie Sanders 40% Ben Carson 48% 8
Bernie Sanders 44% Jeb Bush 46% 2
Bernie Sanders 44% Marco Rubio 46% 2
Bernie Sanders 46% Carly Fiorina 43% 3
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[423] October 25–29, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 42% 8 847 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 47% Tied
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 43% 4
Bernie Sanders 50% Donald Trump 41% 9
Bernie Sanders 46% Marco Rubio 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 50% Jeb Bush 50% Tied
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 50% Tied
Hillary Clinton 53% Rand Paul 47% 6
Hillary Clinton 53% Ted Cruz 47% 6
Hillary Clinton 49% Ben Carson 51% 2
Hillary Clinton 52% Carly Fiorina 48% 4
Morning Consult[424] October 22–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton 41% Jeb Bush 41% Tied 1689 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 44% Rand Paul 38% 6
Hillary Clinton 41% Ben Carson 42% 1
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 38% 5
Hillary Clinton 43% Donald Trump 43% Tied
Hillary Clinton 44% Carly Fiorina 37% 7
Saint Leo University Polling Institute[425] October 17–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Donald Trump 38% 9 1005 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 47% Carly Fiorina 36% 11
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 34% 11
Rasmussen Reports[426] October 18–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton 36% Donald Trump 38% 2 1000 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 40% Carly Fiorina 34% 6
Morning Consult[427] October 15–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 37% 9 2017 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 35% 13
Hillary Clinton 43% Ben Carson 41% 2
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 35% 12
Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 41% 3
Hillary Clinton 45% Carly Fiorina 34% 11
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[428] October 15–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 45% 2 400 ± 4.9%
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 45% 1
Hillary Clinton 49% Ted Cruz 41% 8
Bernie Sanders 44% Ben Carson 43% 1
Bernie Sanders 45% Marco Rubio 41% 4
Bernie Sanders 50% Ted Cruz 38% 12
Emerson College Polling Society[429] October 15–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton 43% Jeb Bush 45% 2 783 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 45% Ben Carson 48% 3
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 46% 2
Bernie Sanders 42% Donald Trump 46% 4
Hillary Clinton 45% Carly Fiorina 44% 1
CNN/ORC[430] October 14–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 45% 5 956 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 48% 1
Bernie Sanders 53% Donald Trump 44% 9
Bernie Sanders 46% Ben Carson 48% 2
Joe Biden 53% Donald Trump 43% 10
Joe Biden 52% Ben Carson 44% 8
Morning Consult[431] October 8–12, 2015 Hillary Clinton 41% Jeb Bush 41% Tied 2002 ± 2%
Hillary Clinton 43% Rand Paul 37% 6
Hillary Clinton 41% Ben Carson 43% 2
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 39% 4
Hillary Clinton 43% Donald Trump 41% 2
Hillary Clinton 41% Carly Fiorina 36% 5
Fox News[432] October 10–12, 2015 Hillary Clinton 39% Carly Fiorina 42% 3 1004 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 40% Jeb Bush 42% 2
Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 45% 5
Hillary Clinton 39% Ben Carson 50% 11
Joe Biden 50% Donald Trump 37% 13
Joe Biden 46% Jeb Bush 41% 5
Joe Biden 46% Carly Fiorina 42% 4
Joe Biden 46% Ben Carson 42% 4
Joe Biden 44% Marco Rubio 43% 1
Public Policy Polling[433] October 1–4, 2015 Hillary Clinton 42% Jeb Bush 43% 1 1338 ± 2.7%
Hillary Clinton 44% Ben Carson 48% 4
Joe Biden 42% Ben Carson 45% 3
Bernie Sanders 35% Ben Carson 46% 11
Hillary Clinton 46% Ted Cruz 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 44% Carly Fiorina 42% 1
Joe Biden 46% Carly Fiorina 40% 6
Bernie Sanders 38% Carly Fiorina 44% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Mike Huckabee 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 42% John Kasich 39% 3
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 43% Tied
Joe Biden 45% Marco Rubio 40% 5
Bernie Sanders 38% Marco Rubio 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 44% Tied
Joe Biden 48% Donald Trump 40% 8
Bernie Sanders 44% Donald Trump 44% Tied
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[434] September 20–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 44% 1 1000 ± 3.10%
Hillary Clinton 49% Donald Trump 39% 10
Hillary Clinton 45% Ben Carson 46% 1
Hillary Clinton 44% Carly Fiorina 45% 1
Joe Biden 48% Jeb Bush 40% 8
Joe Biden 56% Donald Trump 35% 21
Joe Biden 49% Ben Carson 41% 8
Joe Biden 47% Carly Fiorina 41% 6
Bernie Sanders 52% Donald Trump 36% 16
Quinnipiac University[435] September 17–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton 42% Jeb Bush 44% 2 1574 ± 2.5%
Hillary Clinton 42% Ben Carson 49% 7
Hillary Clinton 43% Carly Fiorina 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 45% Donald Trump 43% 2
Joe Biden 46% Jeb Bush 41% 5
Joe Biden 45% Ben Carson 45% Tied
Joe Biden 46% Carly Fiorina 43% 3
Joe Biden 51% Donald Trump 40% 11
Bernie Sanders 44% Jeb Bush 44% Tied
Bernie Sanders 39% Ben Carson 49% 10
Bernie Sanders 43% Carly Fiorina 44% 1
Bernie Sanders 47% Donald Trump 42% 5
Fox News[436] September 20–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 42% 4 1013 ± 3%
MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist[437] August 26 – September 9, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 44% 6 1115 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 53% Donald Trump 40% 13
Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 45% 4
Hillary Clinton 52% Ted Cruz 41% 11
Joe Biden 50% Marco Rubio 42% 8
Joe Biden 56% Donald Trump 38% 18
Joe Biden 50% Jeb Bush 42% 8
Joe Biden 54% Ted Cruz 41% 13
ABC News/Washington Post[438] September 7–10, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 43% 3 1003 ± 4%
CNN/ORC[439] September 4–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 49% 2 1012 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 48% Donald Trump 48% Tied
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 51% 5
Joe Biden 52% Jeb Bush 44% 8
Joe Biden 54% Donald Trump 44% 10
Joe Biden 47% Ben Carson 50% 3
SurveyUSA[440] September 2–3, 2015 Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 45% 5 1000 ± 3.3%
Bernie Sanders 40% Donald Trump 44% 4
Joe Biden 42% Donald Trump 44% 2
Al Gore 41% Donald Trump 44% 3
Public Policy Polling[441] August 28–30, 2015 Hillary Clinton 44% Ben Carson 44% Tied 1254 ± 2.8%
Hillary Clinton 45% Carly Fiorina 43% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 44% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 42% 4
Bernie Sanders 39% Carly Fiorina 38% 1
Bernie Sanders 42% Donald Trump 43% 1
Bernie Sanders 36% Ben Carson 42% 6
Bernie Sanders 40% Jeb Bush 41% 1
Joe Biden 47% Donald Trump 41% 6
Joe Biden 44% Jeb Bush 41% 3
Fox News[442] August 11–13, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Carly Fiorina 40% 7 1008 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Donald Trump 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 44% Marco Rubio 46% 2
Hillary Clinton 42% Jeb Bush 44% 2
Morning Consult[443] August 7–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton 44% Jeb Bush 41% 3 2029 ± 2.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Donald Trump 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 35% 13
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 39% 7
Gravis Marketing[444] August 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 50% Tied 1535 2.5%
Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 51% 2
Hillary Clinton 50% Scott Walker 50% Tied
Hillary Clinton 52% Marco Rubio 48% 4
Hillary Clinton 53% Rand Paul 47% 6
Hillary Clinton 53% Ted Cruz 47% 6
Hillary Clinton 52% Ben Carson 48% 4
Hillary Clinton 52% Rick Perry 48% 4
Hillary Clinton 54% Carly Fiorina 46% 8
McClatchy-Marist[445] July 22–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 43% 6 964 ± 2.8%
Hillary Clinton 49% Ben Carson 39% 10
Hillary Clinton 50% Chris Christie 40% 10
Hillary Clinton 49% Ted Cruz 40% 9
Hillary Clinton 53% Carly Fiorina 35% 18
Hillary Clinton 53% Jim Gilmore 32% 21
Hillary Clinton 52% Lindsey Graham 35% 17
Hillary Clinton 50% Mike Huckabee 41% 9
Hillary Clinton 52% Bobby Jindal 36% 16
Hillary Clinton 49% John Kasich 39% 10
Hillary Clinton 50% George Pataki 37% 13
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 43% 5
Hillary Clinton 47% Rick Perry 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 51% Rick Santorum 39% 12
Hillary Clinton 54% Donald Trump 38% 16
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 41% 7
Quinnipiac University[446] July 23–28, 2015 Joe Biden 43% Jeb Bush 42% 1 1,644 ± 2.4%
Joe Biden 49% Donald Trump 37% 12
Joe Biden 43% Scott Walker 43% Tied
Hillary Clinton 41% Jeb Bush 42% 1
Hillary Clinton 48% Donald Trump 36% 12
Hillary Clinton 44% Scott Walker 43% 1
Bernie Sanders 39% Jeb Bush 44% 5
Bernie Sanders 45% Donald Trump 37% 8
Bernie Sanders 37% Scott Walker 42% 5
CNN/ORC[447] July 22–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton 51% Jeb Bush 46% 5 898 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 56% Donald Trump 40% 16
Hillary Clinton 53% Scott Walker 44% 9
Bernie Sanders 47% Jeb Bush 48% 1
Bernie Sanders 59% Donald Trump 38% 21
Bernie Sanders 48% Scott Walker 43% 5
Public Policy Polling[448] July 20–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 41% 5 1,087 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 39% 8
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 38% 8
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 40% 8
Hillary Clinton 47% Carly Fiorina 37% 10
Hillary Clinton 46% Mike Huckabee 40% 6
Hillary Clinton 45% Rand Paul 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 37% 13
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 41% 5
Bernie Sanders 37% Jeb Bush 44% 7
Bernie Sanders 36% Marco Rubio 41% 5
Bernie Sanders 47% Donald Trump 37% 10
Bernie Sanders 39% Scott Walker 40% 1
ABC News/Washington Post[449] July 16–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Jeb Bush 44% 6 815 ± 4.0%
CNN/ORC[450] June 26–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton 54% Jeb Bush 41% 13 1,017 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 55% Chris Christie 39% 16
Hillary Clinton 56% Marco Rubio 40% 16
Hillary Clinton 59% Donald Trump 35% 24
Hillary Clinton 57% Scott Walker 40% 17
Zogby Analytics[451] June 23–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton 42% Jeb Bush 33% 9 1,341 ± ?
Hillary Clinton 44% Rand Paul 33% 9
Hillary Clinton 43% Marco Rubio 32% 11
Hillary Clinton 43% Scott Walker 33% 10
Fox News[452] June 21–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton 44% Michael Bloomberg 38% 6 1,005 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 43% Jeb Bush 43% Tied
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 45% Carly Fiorina 39% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 44% 1
Hillary Clinton 48% Donald Trump 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 47% Scott Walker 41% 6
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[453] June 14–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 40% 8 1,000 ± 3.1%
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 40% 10
Hillary Clinton 51% Scott Walker 37% 14
Public Policy Polling[454] June 11–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 41% 4 1,129 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 46% Ben Carson 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 41% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Carly Fiorina 40% 6
Hillary Clinton 47% Mike Huckabee 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 42% 4
Lincoln Chafee 27% Scott Walker 39% 12
Martin O'Malley 31% Scott Walker 39% 8
Bernie Sanders 32% Scott Walker 40% 8
Jim Webb 28% Scott Walker 39% 11
CNN/ORC[455] May 29–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton 51% Jeb Bush 43% 8 1,025 ± 3.0%
Hillary Clinton 52% Ted Cruz 43% 9
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 47% 1
Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 46% 3
Hillary Clinton 49% Scott Walker 46% 3
ABC News/Washington Post[456] May 28–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 44% 3 836 ± 4.0%
Quinnipiac University[457] May 19–26, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 37% 10 1,711 ± 2.4%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 37% 9
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 37% 11
Hillary Clinton 47% Mike Huckabee 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 41% 4
Hillary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 32% 18
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 38% 8
Fox News[458] May 9–12, 2015 Hillary Clinton 44% Jeb Bush 45% 1 1,006 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 48% Ben Carson 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 43% 5
Hillary Clinton 49% Carly Fiorina 37% 12
Hillary Clinton 47% Mike Huckabee 44% 3
Hillary Clinton 48% John Kasich 40% 8
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 43% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 42% 6
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[459] April 26–30, 2015 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 43% 6 1,000 ± 3.1%
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 44% 3
Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 43% 6
Hillary Clinton 50% Scott Walker 40% 10
Joe Biden 40% Jeb Bush 48% 8
The Economist/YouGov[460] April 25–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 34% 12 854 ± ?
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 34% 12
Hillary Clinton 48% Mike Huckabee 34% 14
Fox News[461] April 19–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 41% 4 1,012 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 40% 6
Quinnipiac University[462] April 16–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 39% 7 1,353 ± 2.7%
Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 40% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 41% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Mike Huckabee 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 43% 2
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 41% 5
CNN/ORC[463] April 16–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton 56% Jeb Bush 39% 17 1,018 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 60% Ben Carson 36% 24
Hillary Clinton 58% Chris Christie 39% 19
Hillary Clinton 60% Ted Cruz 36% 24
Hillary Clinton 58% Mike Huckabee 37% 21
Hillary Clinton 58% Rand Paul 39% 19
Hillary Clinton 55% Marco Rubio 41% 14
Hillary Clinton 59% Scott Walker 37% 22
Rasmussen Reports[464] April 9 & 12, 2015 Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 38% 9 1,000 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 37% 10
Fox News[465] March 29–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 45% Tied 1,025 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 45% 2
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 43% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 42% 6
Public Policy Polling[466] March 26–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 40% 6 989 ± 3.1%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 37% 9
Hillary Clinton 49% Ted Cruz 43% 6
Hillary Clinton 48% Mike Huckabee 41% 7
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Rick Perry 39% 9
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 42% 4
Joe Biden 40% Scott Walker 46% 6
Elizabeth Warren 39% Scott Walker 43% 4
ABC News/Washington Post[467] March 26–29, 2015 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 41% 12 ? ± 4%
Hillary Clinton 56% Ted Cruz 39% 17
Hillary Clinton 54% Marco Rubio 39% 15
Hillary Clinton 54% Scott Walker 40% 14
CNN/ORC[468] March 13–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton 55% Jeb Bush 40% 15 1,009 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 56% Ben Carson 40% 16
Hillary Clinton 55% Chris Christie 40% 15
Hillary Clinton 55% Mike Huckabee 41% 14
Hillary Clinton 54% Rand Paul 43% 11
Hillary Clinton 55% Marco Rubio 42% 13
Hillary Clinton 55% Scott Walker 40% 15
McClatchy-Marist[469] March 1–4, 2015 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 42% 7 1,036 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 53% Ted Cruz 39% 14
Hillary Clinton 51% Rand Paul 40% 11
Hillary Clinton 51% Rick Perry 42% 9
Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 42% 7
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 44% 4
Quinnipiac University[470] February 26 – March 2, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 42% 3 1,286 ± 2.7%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 38% 10
Hillary Clinton 47% Mike Huckabee 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 39% 9
Rasmussen Reports[471] February 28 – March 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 36% 9 1,000 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 47% Ben Carson 36% 11
Hillary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 41% 5
Public Policy Polling[472] February 20–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton 50% Jeb Bush 40% 10 691 ± 3.7%
Hillary Clinton 48% Ben Carson 40% 8
Hillary Clinton 48% Chris Christie 40% 8
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 40% 10
Hillary Clinton 50% Mike Huckabee 41% 9
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 40% 7
Hillary Clinton 48% Rick Perry 41% 7
Hillary Clinton 48% Marco Rubio 41% 7
Hillary Clinton 48% Scott Walker 40% 8
Joe Biden 39% Jeb Bush 45% 6
Elizabeth Warren 41% Jeb Bush 43% 2
Fox News[473] January 25–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 43% 5 1,009 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 48% Chris Christie 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 44% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied
Public Policy Polling[474] January 20–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 41% 4 861 ± ?
Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 40% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4
Hillary Clinton 45% Scott Walker 42% 3
ABC News/Washington Post[475] January 12–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton 54% Jeb Bush 41% 13 843 ± 4%
Hillary Clinton 53% Chris Christie 40% 13
Hillary Clinton 56% Mike Huckabee 39% 17
Hillary Clinton 54% Rand Paul 41% 13
Hillary Clinton 55% Mitt Romney 40% 15
The Economist/YouGov[476] January 10–12, 2015 Hillary Clinton 43% Jeb Bush 32% 11 1,000 ± 4.8%
Greenberg Quinlan Roser Research[477] January 5–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton 52% Jeb Bush 40% 12 950 ± 3.2%
Hillary Clinton 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6

Polls conducted in 2014[edit]

Polls in 2014
Poll source Date Democratic
candidate
% Republican
candidate
% Leading by % Sample
Size
Margin of error
CNN/ORC[478] December 18–21 Hillary Clinton 54% Jeb Bush 41% 13 1,011 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 56% Ben Carson 35% 21
Hillary Clinton 56% Chris Christie 39% 17
Hillary Clinton 60% Ted Cruz 35% 25
Hillary Clinton 59% Mike Huckabee 38% 21
Hillary Clinton 58% Rand Paul 38% 20
Hillary Clinton 56% Paul Ryan 41% 15
Fox News[479] December 7–9 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 42% 7 1,043 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 52% Chris Christie 40% 12
Hillary Clinton 53% John Kasich 37% 16
Hillary Clinton 51% Rand Paul 40% 11
McClatchy-Marist[480] December 3–9 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 40% 13 923 ± 3.2%
Hillary Clinton 53% Chris Christie 41% 12
Hillary Clinton 54% Rand Paul 40% 14
Hillary Clinton 53% Mitt Romney 41% 12
Bloomberg Politics/Selzer & Co.[481] December 3–5 Hillary Clinton 43% Jeb Bush 37% 6 753 ± 3.6%
Hillary Clinton 42% Chris Christie 36% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Ted Cruz 33% 13
Hillary Clinton 45% Rand Paul 37% 8
Hillary Clinton 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6
Quinnipiac University[482] November 18–23 Hillary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 41% 5 1,623 ± 2.4%
Hillary Clinton 43% Chris Christie 42% 1
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 37% 11
Hillary Clinton 46% Mike Huckabee 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1
Hillary Clinton 46% Paul Ryan 42% 4
McClatchy-Marist[483] September 24–29 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 42% 11 884 ± 3.3%
Hillary Clinton 51% Chris Christie 42% 11
Hillary Clinton 52% Rand Paul 43% 9
McClatchy-Marist[484] August 4–7 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 41% 7 806 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 47% Chris Christie 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 42% 6
Fox News[485] July 20–22 Hillary Clinton 52% Jeb Bush 39% 13 1,057 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 50% Chris Christie 40% 10
Hillary Clinton 54% John Kasich 35% 19
Hillary Clinton 52% Rand Paul 41% 11
CNN/ORC[486] July 18–20 Hillary Clinton 55% Mitt Romney 42% 13 899 ± 3%
Quinnipiac University[487] June 24–30 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 41% 7 1,446 ± 2.6%
Hillary Clinton 47% Chris Christie 38% 9
Hillary Clinton 49% Mike Huckabee 40% 9
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 40% 9
Hillary Clinton 48% Paul Ryan 41% 7
Rasmussen[488] June 14–17 & 20–21 Hillary Clinton 45% Ben Carson 38% 7 1,000 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 47% Chris Christie 33% 14
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 37% 13
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 39% 7
Hillary Clinton 50% Rick Perry 36% 14
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 36% 11
Bloomberg Politics/Selzer & Co.[489] June 6–9 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 38% 9 723
Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 38% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 38% 9
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 36% 11
Saint Leo University[490] May 28 – June 4 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 35% 18 802 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 52% Chris Christie 34% 18
Hillary Clinton 54% Ted Cruz 30% 24
Hillary Clinton 55% Rand Paul 34% 21
Hillary Clinton 54% Paul Ryan 33% 21
Hillary Clinton 53% Marco Rubio 31% 22
ABC News/Washington Post[491] May 29 – June 1 Hillary Clinton 53% Rand Paul 43% 10 1,002 ± 3.5%
Public Policy Polling[492] June 2 Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 42% 7 735 ± 3.6%
ABC News/Washington Post[493] April 24–27 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 41% 12 855 ± 3.5%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[494] April 21–27 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 33% 16 1,051 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 36% 10
Hillary Clinton 49% Mike Huckabee 36% 13
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 37% 11
Hillary Clinton 46% Paul Ryan 38% 8
Fox News[495] April 13–15 Hillary Clinton 51% Jeb Bush 42% 9 1,012 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 50% Chris Christie 42% 8
Hillary Clinton 51% Rand Paul 42% 9
McClatchy-Marist[496] April 7–10 Hillary Clinton 55% Jeb Bush 39% 16 1,036 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 53% Chris Christie 42% 11
Hillary Clinton 54% Ted Cruz 39% 15
Hillary Clinton 53% Mike Huckabee 40% 13
Hillary Clinton 54% Rand Paul 40% 14
Hillary Clinton 54% Marco Rubio 38% 16
Hillary Clinton 51% Paul Ryan 43% 8
Public Policy Polling[497] March 6–9 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 44% 3 1,152 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 42% 4
Hillary Clinton 51% Ted Cruz 40% 11
Hillary Clinton 49% Mike Huckabee 42% 7
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 42% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5
Hillary Clinton 48% Marco Rubio 40% 8
Hillary Clinton 48% Paul Ryan 43% 5
Joe Biden 41% Mike Huckabee 46% 5
Elizabeth Warren 33% Mike Huckabee 44% 11
Bloomberg Politics/Selzer & Co.[498] March 7–10 Hillary Clinton 52% Chris Christie 39% 13 678 ± >3.1%
Rasmussen[499] March 4–5 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 33% 14 1,000 ± 3%
Fox News[500] March 2–4 Hillary Clinton 51% Jeb Bush 38% 13 1,002 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 49% Chris Christie 38% 11
Hillary Clinton 52% Ted Cruz 36% 16
McClatchy-Marist[501] February 4–9 Hillary Clinton 58% Jeb Bush 38% 20 970 ± 3.1%
Hillary Clinton 58% Chris Christie 37% 21
Hillary Clinton 56% Ted Cruz 39% 17
Hillary Clinton 55% Mike Huckabee 41% 14
Hillary Clinton 62% Sarah Palin 35% 27
Hillary Clinton 58% Rand Paul 38% 20
Hillary Clinton 53% Mitt Romney 44% 9
Hillary Clinton 58% Marco Rubio 37% 21
Hillary Clinton 52% Paul Ryan 44% 8
CNN/ORC[502] January 31 – February 2 Hillary Clinton 57% Jeb Bush 37% 20 900 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 55% Chris Christie 39% 16
Hillary Clinton 56% Mike Huckabee 39% 16
Hillary Clinton 57% Rand Paul 39% 18
Hillary Clinton 55% Paul Ryan 40% 15
Public Policy Polling[503] January 23–26 Hillary Clinton 45% Jeb Bush 43% 2 845 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 43% 2
Hillary Clinton 47% Ted Cruz 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 46% Mike Huckabee 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Rand Paul 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 46% Paul Ryan 44% 2
Joe Biden 35% Chris Christie 46% 11
Elizabeth Warren 34% Chris Christie 43% 9
ABC News/Washington Post[504] January 20–23 Hillary Clinton 53% Chris Christie 41% 12 873 ± 3.5%
Quinnipiac University[505] January 15–19 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 38% 11 1,933 ± 2.2%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 38% 8
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 35% 15
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 39% 10
NBC News/Marist Poll[506] January 12–14 Hillary Clinton 50% Chris Christie 37% 13 1,039 ± 3%

Polls conducted in 2013[edit]

Polls in 2013
Poll source Date Democratic
candidate
% Republican
candidate
% Leading by % Sample
Size
Margin of error
CNN/ORC[507] December 16–19 Hillary Clinton 58% Jeb Bush 37% 21 950 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 48% 2
Hillary Clinton 57% Ted Cruz 39% 19
Hillary Clinton 55% Mike Huckabee 40% 15
Hillary Clinton 54% Rand Paul 41% 13
Hillary Clinton 56% Rick Perry 39% 17
Hillary Clinton 56% Marco Rubio 37% 19
Hillary Clinton 52% Paul Ryan 44% 8
Hillary Clinton 57% Rick Santorum 38% 19
Public Policy Polling[508] December 12–15 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 43% 5 1,316 ± 2.7%
Hillary Clinton 42% Chris Christie 45% 3
Hillary Clinton 49% Ted Cruz 41% 8
Hillary Clinton 48% Mike Huckabee 42% 6
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 43% 5
Joe Biden 35% Chris Christie 49% 14
Howard Dean 29% Chris Christie 51% 22
John Kerry 35% Chris Christie 46% 11
Elizabeth Warren 33% Chris Christie 49% 16
Quinnipiac University[509] December 3–9 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 39% 9 2,692 ± 1.9%
Hillary Clinton 41% Chris Christie 42% 1
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 37% 13
Hillary Clinton 48% Rand Paul 41% 7
McClatchy-Marist[510] December 3–5 Hillary Clinton 53% Jeb Bush 41% 12 1,173 ± 2.9%
Hillary Clinton 48% Chris Christie 45% 3
Hillary Clinton 57% Ted Cruz 35% 22
Hillary Clinton 59% Sarah Palin 36% 23
Hillary Clinton 55% Rand Paul 40% 15
Hillary Clinton 58% Rick Perry 37% 21
Hillary Clinton 52% Marco Rubio 42% 10
Hillary Clinton 56% Paul Ryan 40% 16
Quinnipiac University[511] November 6–11 Hillary Clinton 42% Chris Christie 43% 1 2,545 ± 1.9%
Hillary Clinton 51% Ted Cruz 36% 15
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 40% 9
Hillary Clinton 49% Paul Ryan 40% 9
NBC News[512] November 7–10 Hillary Clinton 44% Chris Christie 34% 10 1,003 ± 3.6%
Rasmussen[513] November 7–8 Hillary Clinton 43% Chris Christie 41% 2 1,000 ± 3%
Public Policy Polling[514] October 29–31 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 39% 9 649 ± 3.8%
Hillary Clinton 44% Chris Christie 39% 5
Hillary Clinton 50% Ted Cruz 33% 17
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 37% 12
Joe Biden 42% Jeb Bush 43% 1
Joe Biden 38% Chris Christie 45% 7
Joe Biden 46% Ted Cruz 36% 10
Joe Biden 45% Rand Paul 38% 7
Quinnipiac University[515] September 23–29 Hillary Clinton 49% Chris Christie 36% 13 1,497 ± 2.5%
Hillary Clinton 54% Ted Cruz 31% 23
Hillary Clinton 53% Rand Paul 36% 17
Rasmussen[516] September 16–17 Joe Biden 35% Chris Christie 39% 4 1,000 ± 3%
Monmouth University[517] July 25–30 Hillary Clinton 47% Jeb Bush 37% 10 850 ± 3.4%
Hillary Clinton 43% Chris Christie 39% 4
Hillary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 32% 16
Hillary Clinton 47% Marco Rubio 36% 11
Public Policy Polling[518] July 19–21 Hillary Clinton 44% Jeb Bush 41% 3 800 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 43% Chris Christie 42% 1
Hillary Clinton 47% Rand Paul 39% 8
Hillary Clinton 45% Marco Rubio 40% 5
Hillary Clinton 46% Paul Ryan 44% 2
Joe Biden 41% Jeb Bush 45% 4
Joe Biden 39% Chris Christie 45% 6
Joe Biden 43% Rand Paul 43% Tied
Joe Biden 42% Marco Rubio 42% Tied
Joe Biden 43% Paul Ryan 46% 3
McClatchy-Marist[519] July 15–18 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 40% 8 491 ± 4.4%
Hillary Clinton 47% Chris Christie 41% 6
Hillary Clinton 50% Rand Paul 38% 12
Hillary Clinton 52% Rick Perry 36% 16
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 38% 12
Hillary Clinton 53% Paul Ryan 37% 16
Quinnipiac University[520] June 28 – July 8 Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 40% 6 2,014 ± 2.2%
Hillary Clinton 50% Rand Paul 38% 12
Joe Biden 35% Chris Christie 46% 11
Joe Biden 42% Rand Paul 42% Tied
Quinnipiac University[521] May 22–28 Hillary Clinton 48% Jeb Bush 40% 8 1,419 ± 2.6%
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 41% 8
Joe Biden 38% Jeb Bush 44% 6
Joe Biden 39% Rand Paul 43% 4
Public Policy Polling[522] May 6–9 Hillary Clinton 47% Chris Christie 44% 3 1,099 ± 3%
Hillary Clinton 51% Rand Paul 41% 10
Hillary Clinton 51% Marco Rubio 41% 10
Joe Biden 40% Chris Christie 49% 9
Joe Biden 46% Rand Paul 44% 2
Joe Biden 46% Marco Rubio 45% 1
Public Policy Polling[523] March 27–30 Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 42% 4 1,247 ± 2.8%
Hillary Clinton 49% Rand Paul 43% 6
Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 42% 7
Hillary Clinton 50% Paul Ryan 43% 7
Joe Biden 40% Chris Christie 49% 9
Joe Biden 47% Rand Paul 43% 4
Joe Biden 46% Marco Rubio 44% 2
Joe Biden 48% Paul Ryan 45% 3
McClatchy-Marist[524] March 25–27 Hillary Clinton 54% Jeb Bush 38% 16 519 ± 4.3%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 43% 3
Hillary Clinton 52% Rand Paul 41% 11
Hillary Clinton 52% Marco Rubio 40% 12
Joe Biden 49% Jeb Bush 41% 8
Joe Biden 43% Chris Christie 46% 3
Joe Biden 50% Rand Paul 41% 9
Joe Biden 53% Marco Rubio 39% 14
Quinnipiac University[525] February 27 – March 4 Hillary Clinton 45% Chris Christie 37% 8 1,944 ± 2.2%
Hillary Clinton 50% Marco Rubio 34% 16
Hillary Clinton 50% Paul Ryan 38% 12
Joe Biden 40% Chris Christie 43% 3
Joe Biden 45% Marco Rubio 38% 7
Joe Biden 45% Paul Ryan 42% 3
Andrew Cuomo 28% Chris Christie 45% 17
Andrew Cuomo 37% Marco Rubio 37% Tie
Andrew Cuomo 37% Paul Ryan 42% 5
Public Policy Polling[526] January 31 – February 3 Hillary Clinton 49% Jeb Bush 43% 6 800 ± 3.5%
Hillary Clinton 46% Chris Christie 41% 5
Hillary Clinton 49% Marco Rubio 41% 8
Hillary Clinton 50% Paul Ryan 44% 6
Joe Biden 48% Jeb Bush 45% 3
Joe Biden 44% Chris Christie 44% Tie
Joe Biden 48% Marco Rubio 43% 5
Joe Biden 49% Paul Ryan 45% 4
Purple Strategies[527] December 8–10, 2012 Hillary Clinton 53% Paul Ryan 36% 17 1,000 ± 3.1%

Three-way race[edit]

Polls up to August 2, when three-way polls paused

Four-way race[edit]

Five-way race[edit]

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Evan McMullin
Independent
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Saint Leo University[570] October 22–26, 2016 42% 31% 6% 1% 5% 11 1,050
Public Policy Polling[142] September 27–28, 2016 44% 40% 6% 1% 2% 4 933 ±3.2%
Echelon Insights[144] September 26–27, 2016 44% 39% 6% 2% 1% 5 1,833
Public Policy Polling[207] August 26–28, 2016 42% 37% 6% 4% 1% 5 881 ±3.3%

Post-election analysis[edit]

BBC News discussed whether polling should be abandoned due to its perceived failure.[1] Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out".[2] He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters.[2] Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[2] Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling".[630]

A particular case was the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not.[631] The poll's findings caused skepticism, especially from other pollsters and media outlets, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it.[632] Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the fact that the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they're 100 percent sure, saying if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, [let's] do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll."[633] The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."[634]

See also[edit]

General election polling

Democratic primary polling

Republican primary polling

After the election

References[edit]

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