Next Australian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Next Australian federal election

← 2016
On or before 18 May 2019 (half-Senate)

On or before 2 November 2019 (House of Representatives)


All 151 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls

  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Leader Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Party Coalition Labor
Leader since 14 September 2015 (2015-09-14) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Wentworth Maribyrnong
Last election 76 seats 69 seats
Current seats 76 seats 65 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase11
2016 TPP 50.36% 49.64%

  Richard Di Natale Bob Katter
Leader Richard Di Natale Bob Katter
Party Greens Katter's Australian
Leader since 6 May 2015 (2015-05-06) 3 June 2011 (2011-06-03)
Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Kennedy
Last election 1 seat 1 seat
Current seats 1 seat 1 seat
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75

Incumbent Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
Coalition



The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election.

Except for another double dissolution, the next election must be held between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019 for half of the Senators (from the states) and on or before 2 November 2019 for the House of Representatives and the Senators from the territories. The earliest possible date for a simultaneous House of Representatives and half-Senate election is 4 August 2018.

Australia has compulsory voting; it uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single member seats for the lower house, the House of Representatives (currently 150 seats, but will be 151 seats at the next election),[1] and optional-preference single transferable voting in the proportionally represented upper house, the 76-seat Senate.

Background[edit]

Previous election[edit]

Though federal election outcomes are traditionally called by political commentators on election night, even during the following day the outcome could not be predicted, with many close seats in doubt.[2][3][4][5][6] After a week of vote counting, still no party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government.[7][8][9] Neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party were in a position to concede defeat or claim victory.[10][11] Many political commentators predicted a hung parliament such as occurred at the 2010 election.[9][12][13]

Turnbull repeatedly claimed prior to the election that a vote for a Labor, Green or Independent candidate was a vote for "the Labor/Green/Independent alliance",[14][15] and also refused to countenance a hung parliament.[16] However, during the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and from independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government.[17] During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament".[18] On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day.[19] In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a one-seat majority government.[20] It was the first election result since federation where the post-election opposition won more seats than the post-election government in both of Australia's two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.[21]

Result[edit]

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government suffered a 14-seat swing, reducing it to 76 seats, a bare one-seat majority. Resulting from the national three percent two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats − totaling 69 seats. On the crossbench the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes.[22][23] The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.[24][25][26]

The final outcome in the 76-seat Australian Senate took over four weeks to complete despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote.[27] The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three.[28][29][30] As per convention, the government and opposition agreed to support a motion in the parliament that the first six senators elected in each state would serve a six-year term, while the last six elected would serve a three-year term.[31][32][33][34][35]

Changes in parliamentary composition[edit]

In the time elapsed between the 2016 election and the following federal election, many parliamentarians resigned from their seats, while some were disqualified by the High Court of Australia. The parliamentary eligibility crisis involving dual citizenship was responsible for a significant portion of these departures, although the cases of Barnaby Joyce and John Alexander only left brief vacancies due to their prompt returns in by-elections. Some individual parliamentarians also made an impact by changing their party membership or independent status.

Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Vic (Senate) Stephen Conroy Labor Resignation 30 September 2016 25 October 2016 Kimberley Kitching Labor
SA (Senate) Bob Day Family First Resignation, disqualification 1 November 2016 19 April 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Family First
WA (Senate) Rod Culleton One Nation Departure from party 18 December 2016 Rod Culleton Independent
Independent Disqualification 11 January 2017 27 March 2017 Peter Georgiou One Nation
SA (Senate) Cory Bernardi Liberal Formation of new party 7 February 2017 Cory Bernardi Conservatives
SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Family First Refusal to join party merger 3 May 2017 Lucy Gichuhi Independent
WA (Senate) Scott Ludlam Greens Resignation, disqualification 14 July 2017 10 November 2017 Jordon Steele-John Greens
Qld (Senate) Larissa Waters Greens 18 July 2017 10 November 2017 Andrew Bartlett Greens
WA (Senate) Chris Back Liberal Resignation 31 July 2017 16 August 2017 Slade Brockman Liberal
Qld (Senate) Malcolm Roberts One Nation Disqualification 27 October 2017 10 November 2017 Fraser Anning One Nation
New England Barnaby Joyce National 2 December 2017 Barnaby Joyce
(re-elected)
National
NSW (Senate) Fiona Nash National 22 December 2017 Jim Molan Liberal
SA (Senate) Nick Xenophon Xenophon Team Resignation 31 October 2017 14 November 2017 Rex Patrick Xenophon Team
Tas (Senate) Stephen Parry Liberal Resignation, disqualification 2 November 2017 9 February 2018 Richard Colbeck Liberal
Bennelong John Alexander Liberal Resignation 11 November 2017 16 December 2017 John Alexander
(re-elected)
Liberal
Tas (Senate) Jacqui Lambie Lambie Network Resignation, disqualification 14 November 2017 9 February 2018 Steve Martin Independent
SA (Senate) Skye Kakoschke-Moore Xenophon Team 22 November 2017 16 February 2018 Tim Storer Independent
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning One Nation Departure from party 15 January 2018 Fraser Anning Independent
NSW (Senate) Sam Dastyari Labor Resignation 25 January 2018 14 February 2018 Kristina Keneally Labor
Batman David Feeney Labor Resignation 1 February 2018 17 March 2018 Ged Kearney Labor
SA (Senate) Lucy Gichuhi Independent Party membership 2 February 2018 Lucy Gichuhi Liberal
Qld (Senate) George Brandis LNP Resignation 8 February 2018 21 March 2018 Amanda Stoker LNP
ACT (Senate) Katy Gallagher Labor Disqualification 9 May 2018 23 May 2018 David Smith Labor
Perth Tim Hammond Labor Resignation 10 May 2018 28 July 2018 Vacant pending by-election
Braddon Justine Keay Labor Resignation Vacant pending by-election
Fremantle Josh Wilson Labor Vacant pending by-election
Longman Susan Lamb Labor Vacant pending by-election
Mayo Rebekha Sharkie Xenophon Team 11 May 2018 Vacant pending by-election
Tas (Senate) Steve Martin Independent Party membership 28 May 2018 Steve Martin National
Qld (Senate) Fraser Anning Independent Party membership 4 June 2018 Fraser Anning Katter's Australian
NSW (Senate) Brian Burston One Nation Departure from party 14 June 2018 Brian Burston Independent
Independent Party membership 18 June 2018 United Australia

all as a result of the ongoing 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis.[36]

Marginal seat pendulum[edit]

Based on the 2016 post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, this Mackerras pendulum has the Liberal/National Coalition government on 76 of 150 seats with the Labor opposition on 69 seats and a crossbench of five seats.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require Labor with 51.0% of the two-party vote from a 1.4-point two-party swing or greater, while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require the Coalition with 49.8% of the two-party vote from a 0.6-point two-party swing or greater.

The key marginal seats are as follows:

Marginal Coalition seats
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.63
^^^ Government loses majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.63
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.73
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.04
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.14
Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB 51.24
Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther LIB 51.43
^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.44
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 51.46
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 51.60
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.65
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 51.95 v NXT
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.05
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.30
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 53.13
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.34
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.39
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 53.50
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.59
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.63
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 53.95
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 54.56 v IND
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.69
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 54.74 v NXT
Murray (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 55.13 v LIB
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 55.68
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 55.89
Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 55.92
Marginal Labor seats
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.02
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 50.58
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.68
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 50.79
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.11
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.38
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.60
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.19
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.20
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 52.31
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.93
Perth (WA) Tim Hammond ALP 53.33
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.74
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 53.96
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.02
Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 54.08
Batman (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP 54.38 v GRN
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 54.65
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 54.67
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.81
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP 54.88 v GRN
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 55.32
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 55.73
150-seat House of Representatives

Government (76)
Coalition
     Liberal (46)
     LNP (21)[a]
     National (9)

Opposition (65)
     Labor (65)

Crossbench (4)
     Greens (1)
     Katter (1)
     Independent (2)[b]
     Vacant (5)  

[[File:Australian Senate 2016 election.svg|right|thumb|250px|76-seat Senate

Government (31)
Coalition
     Liberal (22)
     LNP (5)[c]
     National (3)
     CLP (1)[d]

Opposition (26)
     Labor (26)

Crossbench (19)
     Greens (9)
     One Nation (2)
     Xenophon (2)
     Conservative (1)
     Liberal Democrat (1)
     Hinch (1)
independent- 1
United Australia 1
Katters Australia Party 1

Retiring MPs and Senators[edit]

Members of Parliament and Senators who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

House of Representatives[edit]

Electorate Departing MP Party First elected Date announced
Adelaide Kate Ellis Labor 2004 9 March 2017[37]
Lilley Wayne Swan Labor 1993 10 February 2018[38]
Melbourne Ports Michael Danby Labor 1998 5 July 2018[39]
Jagajaga Jenny Macklin Labor 1996 6 July 2018[40]

Senate[edit]

State Departing Senator Party First elected Date announced
NSW John Williams National 2007 31 May 2016[41]
NSW Doug Cameron Labor 2007 24 July 2016[42]

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Voting intention[edit]

House of Representatives (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
16 Jul 2018 Newspoll[43] 38% 36% 10% 7% 9% 49% 51%
3 Jul 2018 Essential[44] 40% 37% 11% 6% 6% 48% 52%
2 Jul 2018 Newspoll[45] 39% 37% 9% 6% 9% 49% 51%
21-24 Jun 2018 Ipsos[46] 35% 35% 12% 6% 12% 47% 53%
14–17 Jun 2018 Newspoll[47] 38% 38% 10% 6% 8% 48% 52%
14–17 Jun 2018 Essential[48] 38% 35% 11% 7% 9% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2018 ReachTEL[49] 35% 34% 11% 9% 11% 48% 52%
31 May – 3 Jun 2018 Essential[50] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 46% 54%
24–27 May 2018 Newspoll[51] 38% 38% 9% 8% 7% 48% 52%
17–20 May 2018 Essential[52] 40% 36% 10% 8% 7% 49% 51%
10–13 May 2018 Essential[53] 38% 36% 10% 7% 8% 48% 52%
10–13 May 2018 Newspoll[54] 39% 38% 9% 6% 8% 49% 51%
10–12 May 2018 Ipsos[55] 36% 37% 11% 5% 11% 46% 54%
3–6 May 2018 Essential[56] 38% 37% 10% 6% 9% 47% 53%
30 Apr 2018 ReachTEL[57] 36% 35% 11% 6% 12% 48% 52%
19–22 Apr 2018 Essential[58] 37% 36% 11% 8% 8% 47% 53%
22 Apr 2018 Newspoll[59] 38% 37% 9% 7% 9% 49% 51%
5–8 Apr 2018 Essential[60] 38% 37% 10% 7% 8% 47% 53%
5–8 Apr 2018 Newspoll[61] 38% 37% 10% 7% 8% 48% 52%
3–5 Apr 2018 Ipsos[62][63] 36% 34% 12% 8% 10% 48% 52%
24 Mar – 1 Apr 2018 Roy Morgan[64] 38.5% 37.5% 11% 3% 10% 49% 51%
28 Mar 2018 ReachTEL[65] 34% 36% 10% 7% 13% 46% 54%
22–25 Mar 2018 Essential[66] 38% 36% 9% 8% 9% 48% 52%
22–25 Mar 2018 Newspoll[67] 37% 39% 9% 7% 8% 47% 53%
17–25 Mar 2018 Roy Morgan[68] 40% 35% 12% 3.5% 9.5% 49% 51%
8–11 Mar 2018 Essential[69] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 46% 54%
3–11 Mar 2018 Roy Morgan[70] 36% 36% 13.5% 3% 11.5% 46% 54%
1–4 Mar 2018 Newspoll[71] 37% 38% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
22–25 Feb 2018 Essential[72] 35% 35% 10% 8% 12% 47% 53%
24 Feb 2018 ReachTEL[73] 33% 37% 11% 7% 12% 46% 54%
15–18 Feb 2018 Newspoll[74] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
8–11 Feb 2018 Essential[75] 36% 37% 10% 6% 11% 46% 54%
1–3 Feb 2018 Newspoll[76] 38% 37% 10% 5% 10% 48% 52%
26–28 Jan 2018 Essential[77] 35% 36% 10% 8% 11% 46% 54%
25 Jan 2018 ReachTEL[78] 34% 36% 10% 8% 12% 48% 52%
11–15 Jan 2018 Essential[79] 37% 38% 9% 6% 10% 47% 53%
19 Dec 2017 Essential[80] 37% 38% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
14–17 Dec 2017 Newspoll[81] 36% 37% 10% 7% 10% 47% 53%
12 Dec 2017 Essential[82] 35% 38% 10% 7% 9% 46% 54%
7–10 Dec 2017 YouGov[83] 34% 35% 11% 8% 13% 50% 50%
5 Dec 2017 Essential[84] 35% 38% 9% 8% 10% 45% 55%
30 Nov − 3 Dec 2017 Newspoll[85] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
29 Nov 2017 ReachTEL[86] 33% 36% 10% 9% 12% 47% 53%
28 Nov 2017 Essential[87] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 46% 54%
23–27 Nov 2017 YouGov[88] 32% 32% 10% 11% 16% 47% 53%
21 Nov 2017 Essential[89] 35% 38% 9% 8% 10% 46% 54%
14 Nov 2017 YouGov[90] 31% 34% 11% 11% 14% 48% 52%
14 Nov 2017 Essential[91] 36% 38% 9% 8% 10% 46% 54%
13 Nov 2017 Newspoll[92] 34% 38% 9% 10% 9% 45% 55%
30 Oct 2017 Essential[93] 36% 37% 10% 7% 9% 46% 54%
26–29 Oct 2017 Newspoll 35% 37% 10% 9% 9% 46% 54%
24 Oct 2017 Essential[94] 37% 36% 9% 8% 10% 48% 52%
12–15 Oct 2017 Newspoll 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
4 Oct 2017 Essential[95] 36% 38% 10% 7% 10% 46% 54%
1 Oct 2017 ReachTEL[96] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 47% 53%
26 Sep 2017 Essential[97] 37% 37% 10% 7% 9% 47% 53%
21–24 Sep 2017 Newspoll[98] 36% 38% 9% 8% 9% 46% 54%
19 Sep 2017 Essential[99] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
14–18 Sep 2017 YouGov[100] 34% 35% 11% 9% 11% 50% 50%
12 Sep 2017 Essential[101] 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
6–9 Sep 2017 Ipsos[102][103] 35% 34% 14% 1% 15% 47% 53%
5 Sep 2017 Essential[101] 36% 37% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
31 Aug – 4 Sep 2017 YouGov[104] 34% 32% 12% 9% 13% 50% 50%
28 Aug – 2 Sep 2017 Newspoll[105] 37% 38% 9% 8% 8% 47% 53%
29 Aug 2017 Essential[106] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
23 Aug 2017 ReachTEL[107] 34.5% 36.7% 10.3% 10.4% 8.2% 48% 52%
22 Aug 2017 Essential[108] 37% 37% 9% 8% 9% 47% 53%
17–21 Aug 2017 YouGov[109] 34% 33% 10% 10% 13% 51% 49%
17–20 Aug 2017 Newspoll[110] 35% 38% 9% 9% 9% 46% 54%
15 Aug 2017 Essential[111] 37% 39% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
8 Aug 2017 Essential[112] 37% 39% 9% 8% 7% 46% 54%
3–6 Aug 2017 Newspoll[113] 36% 36% 11% 8% 9% 47% 53%
1 Aug 2017 Essential[114] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
25 Jul 2017 Essential[115] 38% 37% 10% 7% 8% 47% 53%
20–24 Jul 2017 YouGov[116] 36% 33% 10% 8% 13% 50% 50%
20–23 Jul 2017 Newspoll[117] 36% 37% 9% 9% 9% 47% 53%
19 Jul 2017 ReachTEL[118] 37.2% 35.1% 8.8% 11.7% 7.2% 49% 51%
18 Jul 2017 Essential[119] 36% 38% 10% 7% 9% 46% 54%
6–11 Jul 2017 YouGov[120] 36% 33% 12% 7% 12% 52% 48%
6–9 Jul 2017 Newspoll[121] 35% 36% 10% 11% 8% 47% 53%
29 June 2017 ReachTEL[122] 36.4% 35.4% 10.2% 9.6% 8.3% 48% 52%
22–27 Jun 2017 YouGov[123] 33% 34% 12% 7% 14% 49% 51%
15–18 Jun 2017 Newspoll[124] 36% 37% 9% 11% 7% 47% 53%
14 June 2017 Essential[125] 38% 36% 10% 8% 8% 48% 52%
26–29 May 2017 Newspoll[126] 36% 36% 10% 9% 9% 47% 53%
23 May 2017 Essential[127] 37% 38% 10% 6% 9% 46% 54%
12–15 May 2017 Newspoll[128] 36% 36% 10% 9% 9% 47% 53%
11 May 2017 ReachTEL[129] 38% 34.1% 10.9% 11% 6% 47% 53%
10–11 May 2017 Ipsos[130] 37% 35% 13% 2% 13% 47% 53%
26–30 Apr 2017 Essential[131] 38% 37% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
20–23 Apr 2017 Newspoll[132] 36% 35% 9% 10% 10% 48% 52%
13–16 Apr 2017 Essential[133] 36% 37% 10% 8% 10% 46% 54%
6–9 Apr 2017 Essential[134] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
1–4 Apr 2017 Essential[135] 37% 36% 10% 8% 9% 47% 53%
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017 Newspoll[136] 36% 36% 10% 10% 8% 47% 53%
24–27 Mar 2017 Essential[137] 35% 37% 10% 8% 11% 46% 54%
22–25 Mar 2017 Ipsos[138][139] 33% 34% 16% 2% 15% 45% 55%
17–20 Mar 2017 Essential[140] 34% 37% 9% 10% 9% 45% 55%
16–19 Mar 2017 Newspoll[141] 37% 35% 9% 10% 9% 48% 52%
10–13 Mar 2017 Essential[142] 35% 36% 9% 11% 9% 47% 53%
3–6 Mar 2017 Essential[143] 37% 37% 9% 9% 8% 47% 53%
23–26 Feb 2017 Newspoll[144] 34% 37% 10% 10% 9% 45% 55%
16–19 Feb 2017 Essential[145] 36% 34% 10% 10% 10% 48% 52%
9–12 Feb 2017 Essential[146] 36% 35% 9% 10% 9% 48% 52%
2–5 Feb 2017 Newspoll[147] 35% 36% 10% 8% 11% 46% 54%
20–23 Jan 2017 Essential[148] 35% 37% 10% 9% 8% 46% 54%
13–16 Jan 2017 Essential[149] 38% 37% 9% 8% 8% 47% 53%
12 Jan 2017 ReachTEL[150] 37.1% 35.0% 9.8% 10.6% 7.5% 46% 54%
9–12 Dec 2016 Essential[151] 37% 37% 9% 7% 9% 47% 53%
1–4 Dec 2016 Newspoll[152] 39% 36% 10% 5% 10% 48% 52%
25–28 Nov 2016 Essential[153] 39% 36% 9% 7% 9% 49% 51%
24–26 Nov 2016 Ipsos[154] 36% 30% 16% 7% 9% 49% 51%
17–20 Nov 2016 Newspoll[155] 38% 38% 10% 4% 10% 47% 53%
11–14 Nov 2016 Essential[156] 37% 37% 11% 6% 9% 47% 53%
3–6 Nov 2016 Newspoll[157] 39% 38% 10% 13% 47% 53%
20–23 Oct 2016 Newspoll[158] 39% 37% 10% 5% 9% 48% 52%
14–17 Oct 2016 Essential[159] 37% 37% 11% 5% 9% 47% 53%
7–10 Oct 2016 Essential[160] 38% 36% 10% 6% 10% 48% 52%
6–9 Oct 2016 Newspoll[161] 39% 36% 10% 6% 9% 48% 52%
22–25 Sep 2016 Newspoll[162] 38% 37% 10% 15% 48% 52%
9–12 Sep 2016 Essential[163] 38% 37% 10% 5% 11% 48% 52%
8–11 Sep 2016 Newspoll[164] 41% 36% 9% 14% 50% 50%
26–29 Aug 2016 Essential[165] 40% 37% 10% 13% 49% 51%
25–28 Aug 2016 Newspoll[166] 41% 36% 9% 14% 50% 50%
19–22 Aug 2016 Essential[167] 39% 36% 10% 15% 49% 51%
12–15 Aug 2016 Essential[168] 39% 37% 10% 14% 48% 52%
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[169] 40% 37% 10% 13% 48% 52%
27 Jul – 1 Aug 2016 Essential[170] 39% 37% 10% 14% 48% 52%
20–24 Jul 2016 Essential[171] 39% 37% 10% 14% 48% 52%
13–17 Jul 2016 Essential[172] 39% 36% 10% 15% 49% 51%
6–10 Jul 2016 Essential[173] 41% 36% 10% 13% 49% 51%
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2016 Essential[174] 41% 37% 10% 12% 50% 50%
2 July 2016 election 42.0% 34.7% 10.2% 1.3% 11.8% 50.4% 49.6%
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[175] 42% 35% 10% 13% 50.5% 49.5%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[176] 42.8% 34.6% 10.7% 12% 51% 49%
27–30 Jun 2016 Essential[177] 42.5% 34.5% 11.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5%
28–29 Jun 2016 Galaxy[178] 43% 36% 10% 11% 51% 49%
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[179] 40% 33% 13% 14% 50% 50%

Preferred Prime Minister and satisfaction[edit]

Leadership polling
Date Firm Preferred Prime Minister Turnbull Shorten
Turnbull Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
16 July Newspoll[54] 48% 29% 39% 50% 33% 55%
10–13 May 2018 Newspoll[180] 46% 32% 41% 49% 32% 56%
3–6 May 2018 Essential[181] 40% 26% 40% 42% 37% 41%
4–6 Mar 2018 Essential[131] 37% 35% - - - -
26–30 Apr 2017 Essential[131] 45% 31% 35% 47% 33% 47%
20–23 Apr 2017 Newspoll[132] 42% 33% 32% 57% 33% 53%
30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017 Newspoll[136] 41% 32% 30% 59% 32% 54%
22–25 Mar 2017 Ipsos[138] 45% 33% - - - -
17–20 Mar 2017 Essential[140] 43% 29% - - - -
16–19 Mar 2017 Newspoll[141] 43% 29% 30% 57% 29% 57%
10–13 Mar 2017 Essential[142] 38% 26% 33% 50% 30% 49%
23–26 Feb 2017 Newspoll[182] 40% 33% 29% 59% 30% 56%
2–5 Feb 2017 Newspoll[147] 42% 30% 35% 54% 32% 54%
1–4 Dec 2016 Newspoll[152] 41% 32% 32% 55% 34% 51%
24–26 Nov 2016 Ipsos[154] 51% 30% 45% 45% 37% 53%
17–20 Nov 2016 Newspoll[155] 43% 33% 34% 54% 36% 51%
3–6 Nov 2016 Newspoll[157] 42% 32% 30% 58% 36% 51%
20–23 Oct 2016 Newspoll[158] 42% 32% 29% 57% 36% 51%
6–9 Oct 2016 Newspoll[161] 45% 30% 31% 56% 35% 51%
9–12 Sep 2016 Essential[163] 41% 26% 35% 43% 36% 41%
8–11 Sep 2016 Newspoll[164] 43% 31% 34% 53% 35% 52%
25–28 Aug 2016 Newspoll[166] 43% 32% 34% 52% 36% 50%
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[169] 40% 30% 38% 43% 37% 41%
6–10 Jul 2016 Essential[173] 39% 31% 37% 48% 39% 41%
2 Jul 2016 election
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[175] 48% 31% 40% 47% 36% 51%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[176] 52.9% 47.1% - - - -
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[179] 49% 35% 49% 41% 42% 50%
23–26 Jun 2016 Essential[183] 40% 29% 40% 40% 37% 39%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Timeline[edit]

  • 30 August 2016 — First sitting of 45th Parliament

Election date[edit]

An election for the House of Representatives can be called at any time during the three-year parliamentary term. The Constitution of Australia does not require simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, and there are precedents for separate elections. However governments and the electorate have long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously in order to limit costs. The last House-only election took place in 1969, and the last Senate-only election took place in 1970.

Section 13 of the Constitution requires that in half-Senate elections the election of State senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. Since the last election was a double dissolution, half the Senate was allocated three-year terms that end on 30 June 2019, while the other half was allocated six-year terms that end on 30 June 2022. Senators from the Territories serve three-year terms tied to the timing of House elections. For these reasons, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2018. Since campaigns run for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 4 August 2018.[184]

The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office is 1 July 2019. This took over a month in 2016, so practically the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place before the three-year terms expire is 18 May 2019.

Whether held simultaneously with an election for the Senate or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 2 November 2019.[184] The latest date for the election is calculated under provisions of the Constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the Constitution provides that the term of a House of Representatives expires three years from the first sitting of the House, unless it is dissolved earlier. The last federal election was held on 2 July 2016. The 45th Parliament opened on 30 August 2016[185] and its term would expire on 29 August 2019.[186] Writs for election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House.[187] Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations,[188] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,[189] resulting in the latest election date for the House of Representatives of Saturday, 2 November 2019.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[190] That means any double dissolution must be granted by 28 February 2019. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 4 May 2019.[184] This could only occur if a bill that had passed the House of Representatives was rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Constitutional and legal provisions[edit]

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[191]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[192] Since the 45th Parliament of Australia opened on 30 August 2016, it will expire on 29 August 2019.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 29 August 2019 is 8 September 2019.
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[188] Twenty-seven days after 8 September 2019 is 5 October 2019.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[189] Thirty-one days after 5 October 2019 is 5 November 2019, a Tuesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[193] The Saturday before 5 November 2019 is 2 November 2019. This is therefore the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Redistributions[edit]

Changes to representation entitlement[edit]

A South Australian seat will be abolished due to national population shifts which have occurred since the state's last redistribution in 2011—although South Australia's population is still increasing, faster increases in other states will see a reduction in South Australia's representation from 11 to 10 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives. South Australia only relatively recently experienced this twice, with Hawker being abolished in 1993, followed by Bonython in 2004. South Australia held a state-record 13 seats between the 1984 enlargement of parliament until 1993. For almost a century beforehand, only one single-member seat had ever been abolished in South Australia, Angas and Angas' earlier incarnation. South Australia is the least-populated state where the current number of seats can decrease, as Tasmania's current representation is the minimum guaranteed by the Constitution.[194][195][196]

Under the new census figures released on 27 June 2017, the Parliamentary Library calculated that under the new numbers, the next election will be held to elect 151 MPs, with one lost in South Australia, and one gain each in Victoria and the ACT.[197]

On 31 August 2017, the Australian Electoral Commission announced that a redistribution of federal electoral divisions will be required in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. As a result of the determination, the total number of members to be elected to the House of Representatives at the election will increase from 150 to 151 members.[198] Victoria's number of seats will increase to 38 (+1), the Australian Capital Territory's number of seats will increase to 3 (+1), and South Australia's number of seats will decrease to 10 (−1).[198] If a redistribution is not completed by the time of the election, the AEC can invoke a never-used provision to perform a rapid mini-redistribution based on divisional enrolment figures.[199] A parliamentary library paper suggested the two outer rural South Australian Liberal seats of Barker and Grey would likely be merged.[200][201][202]

Northern Territory[edit]

On 7 December 2016, the augmented Electoral Commission for the Northern Territory announced the results of its deliberations into the boundaries of Lingiari and Solomon, the two federal electoral divisions in the Northern Territory. New boundaries gazetted from 7 February 2017 will see the remainder of the Litchfield Municipality and parts of Palmerston (the suburbs of Farrar, Johnston, Mitchell, Zuccoli and part of Yarrawonga) transferred from Solomon to Lingiari. Both divisions will retain their current names.[203]

Tasmania[edit]

A scheduled redistribution began in Tasmania on 1 September 2016, to be finalised by November 2017.[204] The determinations were announced on 27 September 2017. In addition to boundary changes, the Division of Denison will be renamed the Division of Clark after Andrew Inglis Clark.[205]

Queensland[edit]

A scheduled redistribution began in Queensland on 6 January 2017, and was finalised on 27 March 2018. Changes were made to the boundaries of 18 of Queensland's 30 electoral divisions, and no division names were changed.[206]

Australian Capital Territory[edit]

A redistribution of federal electoral divisions in the Australian Capital Territory commenced on 4 September 2017, due to changes in the territory's representation entitlement. The AEC released a proposed redistribution on 6 April 2018, and the final determination on 3 July 2018.[207] The redistribution will see the creation of a third ACT electoral division named Bean after historian Charles Bean.[208]

Victoria[edit]

A redistribution of federal electoral divisions in Victoria commenced on 4 September 2017, due to changes in the state's representation entitlement. The determinations were announced on 20 June 2018, and will see the creation of a 38th electoral division named Fraser after prime minister Malcolm Fraser. The commission also renamed several divisions: Batman to Cooper (after William Cooper), McMillan to Monash (after Sir John Monash), Melbourne Ports to Macnamara (after Dame Jean Macnamara) and Murray to Nicholls (after Sir Douglas Nicholls and Lady Gladys Nicholls). A proposal to rename Corangamite to Cox (after swimming instructor May Cox) did not proceed.[209]

South Australia[edit]

A redistribution of federal electoral divisions in South Australia commenced on 4 September 2017, due to changes in the state's representation entitlement. The proposed redistribution report was released on 13 April 2018, and the final determination on 26 June 2018. The commission abolished the division of Port Adelaide, and renamed the division of Wakefield to Spence, after Catherine Helen Spence.[210]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ 15 LNP MPs sit in the Liberal party room and 6 in the National party room
  2. ^ Current independent MPs: Andrew Wilkie (Denison) and Cathy McGowan (Indi).
  3. ^ 3 LNP Senators sit in the Liberal party room and 2 in the National party room
  4. ^ Sits in National party room

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives". Australian Electoral Commission. 31 August 2017. Retrieved 31 December 2017. 
  2. ^ "Insiders 90-minute post-election program". ABC TV. 3 July 2016. 
  3. ^ "Swing against Malcolm Turnbull's Coalition leaves election on a knife-edge". ABC News. Australia. 2 July 2016. 
  4. ^ "We don't have a winner, so what happens now?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016. 
  5. ^ "What. Just. Happened?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016. 
  6. ^ "How the night unfolded with no clear winner". The Guardian. Australia. 3 July 2016. 
  7. ^ "Election 2016: Ballot count could take a month to finalise, AEC says". ABC News. Australia. 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  8. ^ Gough, Deborah (3 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: No results until at least ... Tuesday". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  9. ^ a b Smith, Jennifer (3 July 2016). "'I can form a majority government': Malcolm Turnbull's confident he'll win the election and avoid a hung parliament as Bill Shorten praises Labor's 'magnificent campaign'... but there may not be a result until TUESDAY". Daily Mail Australia. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  10. ^ "Liberals 'cautiously optimistic' on majority". Sky News Australia. 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  11. ^ Hunter, Fergus (4 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: Bill Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull 'should quit'". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  12. ^ Maher, Sid (4 July 2016). "Federal election 2016: here's the sequel, Hung Parliament II". The Australian. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  13. ^ Taylor, Lenore (3 July 2016). "Turnbull and Shorten court independents with hung parliament in play". The Guardian. Australia. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  14. ^ "Malcolm Turnbull launches election campaign". The Australian. 26 June 2016. 
  15. ^ "Why Malcolm Turnbull Is So Scared Of People Voting Independents". Huffington Post. 27 June 2016. 
  16. ^ "Turnbull talks down protest vote". SBS News. 27 June 2016. 
  17. ^ "Bill Shorten predicts second poll as Cathy McGowan offers Coaltion support". The Sydney Morning Herald. 8 July 2016. 
  18. ^ "Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. 10 July 2016. 
  19. ^ Ross, Monique (10 July 2016). "Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. Retrieved 10 July 2016. 
  20. ^ "Election 2016: LNP retains Capricornia, gives Coalition 76-seat majority government". ABC News. Australia. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2016. 
  21. ^ "Australian Politics and Elections Database: University of Western Austrralia". Elections.uwa.edu.au. 2018-03-13. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  22. ^ "Statement from the Australian Electoral Commission: Recount in the Division of Herbert" (Press release). Australian Electoral Commission. 19 July 2016. Retrieved 25 July 2016. 
  23. ^ "Federal Election 2016 Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2016. 
  24. ^ "Labor wins seat of Herbert after recount". Abc.net.au. 2016-07-31. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  25. ^ Federal Politics (2016-07-31). "Labor takes seat of Herbert, leaving Malcolm Turnbull with majority of just one seat". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  26. ^ Australian Electoral Commission. "Herbert – 2016 election". Vtr.aec.gov.au. Archived from the original on 3 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016. 
  27. ^ Hasham, Nicole (3 July 2016). "Election 2016 results: Senate count throws up a wild mix as One Nation, Fred Nile, Liberal Democrats vie for seats". news.com.au. Retrieved 3 July 2016. 
  28. ^ "AEC". Twitter. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  29. ^ "Federal Election 2016: Senate Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016. 
  30. ^ "Senate photo finishes". crikey.com.au. 2016-07-12. Retrieved 2016-07-30. 
  31. ^ "Senate terms: Derryn Hinch and Greens' Lee Rhiannon given three years". The Guardian. Australia. 12 August 2016. 
  32. ^ "ALP-LNP deal to force senators back to poll in three years". The Australian. 13 August 2016. 
  33. ^ "Coalition and Labor team up to clear out crossbench senators in 2019". Sydney Morning Herald. 12 August 2016. 
  34. ^ "Coalition flags first elected Senate plan". Sky News. 12 August 2016. 
  35. ^ "Cormann raises 'first elected' plan to halve Senate terms for crossbenchers". The Australian. 12 December 2016. 
  36. ^ "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News. 2018-05-09. Retrieved 2018-06-26. 
  37. ^ "Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis to quit politics at next federal election". ABC Online. 9 March 2017. 
  38. ^ "'Time stops for no one': Wayne Swan to quit politics at the next election". The Guardian. 10 February 2018. 
  39. ^ "Labor's Danby to retire from marginal seat". SBS News. 5 July 2018. 
  40. ^ "Veteran Labor MP Jenny Macklin announces retirement after 22-year career". ABC News. 6 July 2018. 
  41. ^ "Election 2016: Wacka pleased with Senate ticket rank". Inverell Times. 31 May 2016. 
  42. ^ "Doug Cameron serving last term". SBS News. 24 July 2016. Archived from the original on 26 July 2016. 
  43. ^ [hhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiph9D4jaLcAhUGm5QKHRVzBJkQqUMILzAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fnewspoll-malcolm-turnbull-leaves-bill-shorten-in-the-dust%2Fnews-story%2F7a3b6110427fa43d00597bf7f04bd49c&usg=AOvVaw3WvIDyy7MGceAavdeYonN9 "Newspoll"]. 16 July 2018. 
  44. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 2 July 2018. 
  45. ^ "Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor". 2 July 2018. 
  46. ^ "Age editorial: Voters' choice would be to mix and match". 24 June 2018. 
  47. ^ "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor". 20 June 2018. 
  48. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 19 June 2018. 
  49. ^ "ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman". 3 June 2018. 
  50. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 5 June 2018. 
  51. ^ "Newspoll: Voters snub Bill Shorten's tax attack". 28 May 2018. 
  52. ^ "The Essential Report 22 May 2018" (PDF). 22 May 2018. 
  53. ^ "The Essential Report 15 May 2018" (PDF). 15 May 2018. 
  54. ^ a b "Newspoll results" (PDF). 14 May 2018. 
  55. ^ "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Budget passes fairness test but Labor's support surges". 13 May 2018. 
  56. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 8 May 2018. 
  57. ^ "Coalition gains two points as preferred party but continues to trail Labor". 2 May 2018. 
  58. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 24 April 2018. 
  59. ^ "Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps". www.theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2018-04-08. 
  60. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 10 April 2018. 
  61. ^ "Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps". www.theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2018-04-08. 
  62. ^ "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Malcolm Turnbull is back in the game". 7 April 2018. 
  63. ^ Adrian Beaumont (11 April 2018). "Poll wrap: Newspoll not all bad news for Turnbull as Coalition's position improves". 
  64. ^ "Federal Election still too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%". 6 April 2018. 
  65. ^ "Exclusive: Labor holds onto election winning lead". 29 March 2018. 
  66. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 27 March 2018. 
  67. ^ "Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull loses 29th straight Newspoll as Labor vote climbs". 26 March 2018. 
  68. ^ "Roy Morgan: Federal Election too close to call as L-NP holds big lead in Queensland". 27 March 2018. 
  69. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 13 March 2018. 
  70. ^ "Roy Morgan". 27 March 2018. 
  71. ^ "Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull suffers drop as preferred PM in the wake of Barnaby Joyce's baby scandal". 4 March 2018. 
  72. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 27 February 2018. 
  73. ^ "Barnaby Joyce affair saga was a distraction: Bishop". 25 February 2018. 
  74. ^ "Newspoll: Joyce should quit as voters punish government". 19 February 2018. 
  75. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 13 February 2018. 
  76. ^ "Encouragement for Turnbull in Newspoll as parliamentary year starts". 4 February 2018. 
  77. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 30 January 2018. 
  78. ^ "Tasmanian election likely to be close, while Labor continues to lead federally". 30 January 2018. 
  79. ^ "Essential Report" (PDF). 16 January 2018. 
  80. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 19 December 2017. 
  81. ^ "Coalition still trails Labor but Turnbull extends as preferred PM". 17 December 2017. 
  82. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 12 December 2017. 
  83. ^ "YouGov / Fifty Acres Survey Results" (PDF). 12 December 2017. 
  84. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 5 December 2017. 
  85. ^ "Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor". 3 December 2017. 
  86. ^ "More bad news for government in latest poll". Sky News. 29 November 2017. 
  87. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 28 November 2017. 
  88. ^ "YouGov / Fifty Acres Survey Results" (PDF). 28 November 2017. 
  89. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 21 November 2017. 
  90. ^ https://au.yougov.com/news/2017/11/14/same-sex-marriage-results/
  91. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 14 November 2017. 
  92. ^ "Misery for Malcolm Turnbull in horror poll slump". The Australian. 13 November 2017. (Subscription required (help)). 
  93. ^ "Essential: Essential Report" (PDF). 31 October 2017. 
  94. ^ "Essential: Essential Report" (PDF). 24 October 2017. 
  95. ^ "Essential: Essential Report" (PDF). 4 October 2017. 
  96. ^ "ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor". 1 October 2017. 
  97. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 26 September 2017. 
  98. ^ "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor". 24 September 2017. 
  99. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 19 September 2017. 
  100. ^ "YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9". 20 September 2017. 
  101. ^ a b "Essential: Essential Report". 5 September 2017. 
  102. ^ "Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor". 10 September 2017. 
  103. ^ "Labor maintain their lead – Fairfax Ipsos Poll". 
  104. ^ "YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9". 6 September 2017. 
  105. ^ "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". 3 September 2017. 
  106. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 29 August 2017. 
  107. ^ "ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor". 24 August 2017. 
  108. ^ "Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor". 22 August 2017. 
  109. ^ "YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10". 23 August 2017. 
  110. ^ "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor". 20 August 2017. 
  111. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 15 August 2017. 
  112. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 8 August 2017. 
  113. ^ "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". 7 August 2017. 
  114. ^ "Essential: Essential Report". 1 August 2017. 
  115. ^ "Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor". 25 July 2017. 
  116. ^ "YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50". 26 July 2017. 
  117. ^ "Newspoll: Majors turn tide on Greens, One Nation". 24 July 2017. 
  118. ^ "ReachTEL federal opinion poll 19 Jul 2017" (PDF). 20 July 2017. 
  119. ^ "Essential: 54-46 to Labor" (PDF). Retrieved 18 July 2017. 
  120. ^ "YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7". 13 July 2017. 
  121. ^ "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". Retrieved 10 July 2017. 
  122. ^ "ReachTEL opinion poll 29 Jun 2017" (PDF). 30 June 2017. 
  123. ^ "YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor". 28 June 2017. 
  124. ^ "Newspoll" (PDF). 
  125. ^ "Essential:52-48 to Labor". 
  126. ^ "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". Retrieved 18 June 2017. 
  127. ^ "Essential:54-46 to Labor". 
  128. ^ "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". Retrieved 16 May 2017. 
  129. ^ "ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor". 
  130. ^ "Lift for Coalition following second Turnbull/Morrison budget". Retrieved 26 May 2017. 
  131. ^ a b c "Essential report: 2 May 2017" (PDF). Retrieved 4 May 2017. 
  132. ^ a b "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor". Retrieved 24 April 2017. 
  133. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Retrieved 21 April 2017. 
  134. ^ "The Essential Report". Retrieved 21 April 2017. 
  135. ^ "The Guardian Essential Poll: Majority of voters back emissions trading scheme, poll finds". Retrieved 4 April 2017. 
  136. ^ a b "Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor". Retrieved 24 April 2017. 
  137. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Report. Essential Media. Retrieved 2 April 2017. 
  138. ^ a b Massola, James. "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Support for Turnbull government crashes as Labor takes thumping lead". The Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 26 March 2017. 
  139. ^ "Labor benefits from lacklustre Turnbull government". Ipsos Australia. 
  140. ^ a b "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Report. Essential Media. Retrieved 21 March 2017. 
  141. ^ a b "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor". Retrieved 24 April 2017. 
  142. ^ a b "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Report. Essential Media. Retrieved 16 March 2017. 
  143. ^ "Federal voting intention". Essential Report. Essential Research. Retrieved 8 March 2017. 
  144. ^ Crowe, David (26 February 2017). "Coalition tumbles as voters turn to Hanson". The Australian. The Australian. Retrieved 26 February 2017. 
  145. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). essentialmedia.com.au. Essential Research. Retrieved 25 February 2017. 
  146. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 14 February 2017. Retrieved 14 February 2017. 
  147. ^ a b "Newspoll: Hanson on the rise as Coalition support dives". The Australian. 6 February 2017. Retrieved 6 February 2017. 
  148. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 24 January 2017. Retrieved 24 January 2017. 
  149. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 17 January 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2017. 
  150. ^ "Centrelink and Sussan Ley controversy hit Turnbull in polls". AAP. 16 January 2017. 
  151. ^ Essential Report (PDF) (Report). 13 December 2016. Retrieved 14 December 2016. 
  152. ^ a b "Newspoll: fix economy say voters as PM support falls to lowest level". The Australian. 5 December 2016. Retrieved 6 December 2016. 
  153. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 29 November 2016. Retrieved 29 November 2016. 
  154. ^ a b Mark Kenny (27 November 2016). "Crashing to zero: Malcolm Turnbull's support evaporates in Fairfax-Ipsos poll". The Age. 
  155. ^ a b "Newspoll: Another Labor win as Turnbull loses his economic touch". The Australian. 21 November 2016. Retrieved 22 November 2016. 
  156. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 15 November 2016. Retrieved 21 November 2016. 
  157. ^ a b "Newspoll: Labor vote highest since Turnbull became PM". The Australian. 8 November 2016. Retrieved 8 November 2016. 
  158. ^ a b "Turnbull hits lowest rating as Labor maintains lead, says Newspoll". The Australian. 24 October 2016. Retrieved 25 October 2016. 
  159. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 18 October 2016. Retrieved 18 October 2016. 
  160. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 11 October 2016. Retrieved 11 October 2016. 
  161. ^ a b "Newspoll: Labor still leading, 100 days since election". The Australian. 9 October 2016. Retrieved 10 October 2016. 
  162. ^ "Newspoll: biggest lead for Labor in Malcolm Turnbull era". The Australian. 27 September 2016. Retrieved 26 September 2016. 
  163. ^ a b "The Essential Report 13 September 2016" (PDF). Essential Vision. Essential Research. Retrieved 14 September 2016. 
  164. ^ a b "Newspoll: Turnbull trails Shorten with Coalition and ALP in tie". The Australian. 12 September 2016. Retrieved 2016-09-13. 
  165. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 30 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-31. 
  166. ^ a b "Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull in plunge to new low". The Australian. 30 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-30. 
  167. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 23 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-31. 
  168. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 16 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-18. 
  169. ^ a b "The Essential Report" (PDF). 9 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  170. ^ "Essential: 2 August 2016" (PDF). 2 August 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  171. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  172. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  173. ^ a b "The Essential Report" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  174. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  175. ^ a b "Turnbull clings to narrow lead". The Australian. 2 July 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  176. ^ a b "1 July 2016 ReachTEL". Reachtel.com.au. 1 July 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  177. ^ "The Essential Report" (PDF). 1 July 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  178. ^ "Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition – The Poll Bludger". 30 June 2016. Retrieved 2016-06-30. 
  179. ^ a b "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Dead heat on election eve as final poll points to cliffhanger". theage.com.au. 30 June 2016. Retrieved 2016-06-30. 
  180. ^ [hhttps://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-malcolm-turnbull-leaves-bill-shorten-in-the-dust/news-story/7a3b6110427fa43d00597bf7f04bd49c "Newspoll results"]. 64 May 2018.  Check date values in: |date= (help)
  181. ^ "The Guardian Essential Report". The Guardian. The Guardian. Retrieved 10 May 2018. 
  182. ^ Bowe, William. "Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor". Crikey. Crikey. Retrieved 26 February 2017. 
  183. ^ "Essential: 28 June 2016" (PDF). 28 June 2016. Retrieved 2016-08-11. 
  184. ^ a b c Elections Timetable from Parliamentary Library
  185. ^ "2016 Parliamentary sittings". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 12 August 2016. 
  186. ^ See Anthony Green's Election Blog
  187. ^ Section 32 of the Constitution
  188. ^ a b "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  189. ^ a b "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  190. ^ Section 57 of the Constitution
  191. ^ Lundie, Rob. "Australian elections timetable". Parliament of Australia. Archived from the original on 8 January 2011. 
  192. ^ "Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  193. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  194. ^ "Electoral redistributions during the 45th Parliament: APH Statistics and Mapping". Aph.gov.au. 2016-08-25. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  195. ^ "South Australia to potentially lose federal seat under future redistribution". Abc.net.au. 2016-08-25. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  196. ^ "South Australia set to be reduced to 10 federal electorates". The Advertiser. 2016-08-25. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  197. ^ Giuliano, Christopher. "Gains and losses on the electorate roundabout". FlagPost. Parliamentary Library. Retrieved 27 June 2017. 
  198. ^ a b "Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives". aec.gov.au. 31 August 2017. 
  199. ^ "Australian Federal Redistributions 1901–2003" (PDF). AEC Research. AEC. Retrieved 27 June 2017. 
  200. ^ "Decision time on potential loss of SA federal seat". Indaily.com.au. 2017-08-28. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  201. ^ "SA MP Rowan Ramsey calls possible expansion of massive Grey electorate 'ridiculous'". Abc.net.au. 2017-08-30. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  202. ^ "Seat of Grey could expand". Portlincolntimes.com.au. 2017-08-30. Retrieved 2018-03-19. 
  203. ^ "Media release: Augmented Electoral Commission decides names and boundaries of federal electoral divisions in the Northern Territory". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 December 2016. 
  204. ^ "Tasmanian redistribution indicative timetable". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 31 August 2017. 
  205. ^ "Names and boundaries of federal electoral divisions in Tasmania decided". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 September 2017. 
  206. ^ "Queensland redistribution indicative timetable". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 31 August 2017. 
  207. ^ "Step 6 – announcement of names and boundaries of federal electoral divisions in the Australian Capital Territory". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 July 2018. 
  208. ^ "Proposed federal electoral divisions for ACT released". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 April 2018. 
  209. ^ "Names and boundaries of federal electoral divisions in Victoria decided". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 June 2018. 
  210. ^ "Proposed federal electoral divisions for South Australia released". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2018.