Next Australian federal election

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Next Australian federal election
Australia
2013 ←
On or before 14 January 2017

All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Tony Abbott Bill Shorten
Leader Tony Abbott Bill Shorten
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 1 December 2009 (2009-12-01) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Warringah Maribyrnong
Last election 90 seats
45.55%
55 seats
33.38%
Seats needed Steady Increase21
2013 TPP 53.5% 46.5%
TPP polling 49% 51%
BPM polling 41% 38%

  Richard Di Natale Clive Palmer
Leader Richard Di Natale Clive Palmer
Party Greens Palmer United
Leader since 6 May 2015 (2015-05-06) April 2013 (2013-04)
Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Fairfax
Last election 1 seat
8.65%
1 seat
5.49%
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75

  Bob Katter
Leader Bob Katter
Party Katter's Australian
Leader since 3 June 2011 (2011-06-03)
Leader's seat Kennedy
Last election 1 seat
1.04%
Seats needed Increase75

Incumbent Prime Minister

Tony Abbott
Liberal–National coalition

The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 44th Parliament.

Elections in Australia use a full-preference instant-runoff voting system in single member seats for the lower house, the House of Representatives, and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house, the Senate. Voting is compulsory.

By Westminster convention, but subject to Constitutional constraints, the decision as to the type of election and date on which an election is to take place is that of the Prime Minister, who 'advises' the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the House of Representatives and then issuing writs for election.

Election date[edit]

Section 13 of the Constitution of Australia requires that in half-Senate elections the election of State senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. As the terms of half the senators end on 30 June 2017, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2016, and the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 6 August 2016.[1] While there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, both the government and electorate have long preferred for Senate elections to take place simultaneously with those of the House of Representatives. Nonetheless, half-Senate elections only have taken place in the past.

A House-only election can be called at any time during the parliamentary term. Whether held simultaneously with an election for the Senate or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 14 January 2017,[1] which is calculated under provisions of the Constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the Constitution provides that the term of a House of Representatives expires three years from the first sitting of the House. The last federal election was held on 7 September 2013, and the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013,[2] and its term would expire on 11 November 2016.[3] Writs for election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House.[4] Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations,[5] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,[6] resulting in the latest election date of Saturday, 14 January 2017.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[7] That means a double dissolution must be granted by 11 May 2016. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election is 16 July 2016.[1]

Constitutional and legal provisions[edit]

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[8]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[9] Since the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013, it will expire on 11 November 2016.[10]
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 11 November 2016 is 21 November 2016.
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[11] Twenty-seven days after 21 November 2016 is 18 December 2016.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [12] Thirty-one days after 18 December 2016 is 18 January 2017, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[13] The Saturday before 18 January 2017 is 14 January 2017. This is therefore the latest possible date for the election. However, it is unlikely that the election would be held this late, as schools would be closed for summer holidays at this time. Governments tend to avoid holding elections during school holidays, since schools are often used as polling places.[14]

Background[edit]

The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of 150 lower house seats on a 17-seat 3.6-point two-party swing, defeating the six-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

The Abbott Government was sworn in to office on 18 September 2013.[15]

Kevin Rudd resigned as leader of the Australian Labor Party following the defeat of the party. Chris Bowen was the interim leader of the Labor Party in the lead-up to a leadership election. Two candidates, Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten, declared their candidacy for the Labor leadership, with Shorten declared the winner on 13 October 2013.

On 22 November 2013 Kevin Rudd resigned from parliament after 15 years, triggering a by-election in the seat of Griffith. Terri Butler retained the seat for Labor.

As a result of lost ballot papers, on 18 February 2014 the High Court of Australia, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, ordered a new half-Senate election for Western Australia, which took place on Saturday 5 April 2014.

Senator John Madigan resigned from the Democratic Labour Party and became an independent Senator in September 2014, citing long-term internal party tensions.[16]

On 24 November 2014, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie resigned from the Palmer United Party and on 13 March 2015, Queensland Senator Glenn Lazarus also announced his resignation from the Palmer United Party, both continuing to sit as independents.

On 13 November 2014, the Australian Electoral Commission announced that a redistribution of electoral boundaries in the states of New South Wales and Western Australia would be undertaken before the next election. A determination of the states' membership entitlements under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 means that Western Australia's entitlement will increase from 15 to 16 seats, and New South Wales' will decrease from 48 to 47 seats. A redistribution will also occur in the Australian Capital Territory, as seven years have elapsed since the last time the ACT's boundaries were reviewed.[17]

Retiring MPs and senators[edit]

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor[edit]

Greens[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results[edit]

House of Representatives polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP Green Other L/NP ALP
29 June 2015 Morgan[22] 39% 36% 14% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
16 June 2015 Newspoll[23] 40% 34% 14% 12% 49% 51%
16 June 2015 Essential 42% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
15 June 2015 Morgan[24] 37.5% 37.5% 13.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
11-13 June 2015 Ipsos[25] 40% 37% 14% 10% 47% 53%
11-13 June 2015 Essential 41% 40% 9% 10% 48% 52%
2 June 2015 Newspoll[26] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
2 June 2015 Essential[27] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
23-24, 30-31 May 2015 Morgan[28] 41% 37% 13% 9% 47% 53%
26 May 2015 Essential[29] 41% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
18 May 2015 Morgan[30] 41.5% 35.5% 12.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[31] 43% 35% 13% 9% 50% 50%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[32] 40% 37% 12% 11% 47% 53%
13 May 2015 ReachTel[33] 41.1% 38.3% 12.1% 8.6% 47% 53%
7-10 May 2015 Essential[34] 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
4 May 2015 Newspoll[35] 39% 35% 12% 14% 48% 52%
4 May 2015 Morgan[36] 40% 37.5% 11.5% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
28 Apr 2015 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38% 12% 11% 47% 53%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[37] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[38] 39% 38% 13% 9% 46% 54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015 Morgan[39] 40.5% 36% 12.5% 11% 47% 53%
29 Mar 2015 ReachTEL[40] 39.6% 40.5% 11.5% 8.5% 46% 54%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[41] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015 Morgan[42] 38% 40% 11% 11% 44% 56%
17 Mar 2015 Essential 40% 39% 9% 11% 48% 52%
10 Mar 2015 Essential[43] 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[44] 38% 39% 12% 11% 45% 55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015 Morgan[45] 39% 38% 12.5% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
20–22 Feb 2015 Essential 40% 41% 9% 10% 47% 53%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 38% 38% 12% 12% 47% 53%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015 Morgan 35% 41% 12% 12% 42.5% 57.5%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 41% 12% 12% 43% 57%
5 Feb 2015 ReachTEL 38.4% 41.4% 11.2% 8.9% 45% 55%
4–5 Feb 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
27 Jan 2015 ReachTEL 39.7% 40.2% 11.3% 8.8% 46% 54%
27 Jan 2015 Essential 39% 41% 9% 11% 46% 54%
20 Jan 2015 Essential 40% 40% 10% 11% 47% 53%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 38% 40% 10% 11% 46% 54%
12 Jan 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38.5% 9.5% 13.5% 45.5% 54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014 Morgan 37.5% 39.5% 12% 11% 43.5% 56.5%
16 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
12–15 Dec 2014 Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 46% 54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014 Morgan 35% 41% 11.5% 12.5% 42.5% 57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 40% 37% 12% 11% 48% 52%
2–4 Dec 2014 Galaxy 38% 41% 11% 10% 45% 55%
2 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014 Morgan 37% 37.5% 12% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
29–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 13% 13% 46% 54%
25 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
21 Nov 2014 ReachTEL 40.2% 38.7% 11.1% 9.9% 47% 53%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 39% 11% 14% 45% 55%
17 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
17 Nov 2014 Morgan 38% 38.5% 12% 11.5% 44.5% 55.5%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 13% 48% 52%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 38% 36% 13% 13% 46% 54%
4 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 42% 37% 12% 10% 49% 51%
28 Oct 2014 Essential 39% 39% 9% 12% 47% 53%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL 40.1% 37.5% 11.5% 10.9% 48% 52%
21 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
20 Oct 2014 Morgan 39.5% 35.5% 12% 13% 48% 52%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 41% 39% 10% 10% 48% 52%
7 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
4–5 Oct 2014 Morgan 40% 35% 12% 13% 47% 53%
4–5 Oct 2014 Galaxy 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 34% 11% 14% 49% 51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12% 12% 45.5% 54.5%
18 Sep 2014 ReachTEL 41.6% 37.4% 10.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014 Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46% 54%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48% 52%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49% 51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5% 55.5%
19 Aug 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
9–10 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44% 56%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48% 52%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46% 54%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46% 54%
1 Jul 2014 Essential[46] 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
30 Jun 2014 Morgan[47] 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5% 57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45% 55%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47% 53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46% 54%
27 May 2014 Essential[48] 40% 39% 9% 12% 48% 52%
20 May 2014 Essential[49] 40% 40% 8% 12% 48% 52%
17–18 May 2014 Morgan[50] 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5% 57.5%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45% 55%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen[51] 35% 40% 14% 12% 44% 56%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll[52] 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
4 May 2014 Galaxy[53] 39% 37% 11% 13% 48% 52%
30 Apr 2014 Essential[54] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
22 Apr 2014 Morgan[55] 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48% 52%
15 Apr 2014 Essential[56] 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen[57] 40% 34% 17% 9% 48% 52%
8 Apr 2014 Essential[58] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
7 Apr 2014 Morgan[59] 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5% 51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll[60] 43% 34% 11% 12% 51% 49%
25 Mar 2014 Morgan[61] 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5% 54.5%
25 Mar 2014 Essential[62] 44% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll[63] 40% 36% 13% 11% 48% 52%
18 Mar 2014 Essential[64] 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen[65] 44% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49% 51%
5 Mar 2014 Essential[66] 44% 38% 8% 10% 51% 49%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[67] 39% 39% 10% 12% 46% 54%
23 Feb 2014 Morgan[68] 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[69] 44% 33% 12% 11% 52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll[70] 41% 35% 12% 12% 49% 51%
28 Jan 2014 Morgan[71] 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47% 53%
23 Jan 2014 ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47% 53%
17–20 Jan 2014 Essential[72] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
13 Jan 2014 Morgan[73] 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5% 52.5%
16 Dec 2013 Morgan[74] 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5% 52.5%
15 Dec 2013 ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48% 52%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013 Essential[75] 44% 36% 8% 11% 52% 48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013 Morgan (multi)[76] 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5% 51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12% 52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[77] 41% 37% 11% 11% 48% 52%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11% 53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12% 56% 44%
2013 election 45.6% 33.4% 8.7% 12.3% 53.5% 46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013 Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14% 54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013 ReachTEL[78] 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6% 53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12% 54% 46%
Preferred Prime Minister and satisfaction polling^
Date Firm Preferred Prime Minister Abbott Shorten
Abbott Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
11-13 June 2015 Newspoll[23] 41% 38% 34% 56% 28% 54%
11-13 June 2015 Ipsos[79] 41% 42%
2 June 2015 Essential 38% 33% 39% 50% 32% 45%
2 June 2015 Newspoll[80] 41% 37% 38% 53% 32% 50%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[81] 44% 39% 42% 50% 41% 45%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[82] 41% 40% 39% 52% 35% 46%
12 Apr 2015 Essential 35% 32% 36% 54% 32% 41%
5 Apr 2015 Newspoll[83] 38% 38% 37% 56% 34% 50%
27 Apr 2015 Morgan 44% 39% 37% 53% 34% 48%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 33% 35% 33% 58% 33% 42%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[37] 40% 41% 33% 59% 33% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[38] 38% 46% 34% 60% 42% 44%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[41] 36% 41% 29% 61% 36% 47%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[44] 33% 44% 28% 63% 39% 42%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 39% 44% 32% 62% 43% 43%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 43% 25% 68% 35% 49%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 30% 48% 24% 68% 42% 40%
1 Feb 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
14 Jan 2015 Morgan 41% 43% 37% 52% 37% 40%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 35% 37% 37% 53% 39% 33%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 44% 33% 58% 37% 43%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 39% 47%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 43% 33% 57% 39% 43%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 43% 36% 55% 39% 41%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 36% 34% 39% 50% 37% 38%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 37% 52% 37% 45%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 41% 41% 42% 49% 43% 40%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 38% 53% 35% 46%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 38% 32% 40% 48% 35% 36%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 52% 38% 43%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 35% 54% 36% 43%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 39% 40% 36% 55% 40% 39%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 36% 54% 36% 44%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 38% 38% 36% 53% 38% 41%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 41% 31% 60% 34% 43%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 31% 62% 34% 41%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 40% 30% 61% 34% 45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 45% 33% 59% 38% 43%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 30% 60% 42% 39%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 40% 51% 34% 62% 47% 39%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 40% 38% 35% 56% 35% 41%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 45% 44% 43% 50% 43% 41%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 32% 41% 47% 34% 38%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 47% 31% 42%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 43% 36% 40% 50% 36% 43%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 48% 43% 45% 49% 42% 42%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 42% 36% 38% 50% 33% 43%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[67] 38% 37% 36% 52% 35% 39%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[67] 49% 39% 45% 47% 40% 40%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 45% 35% 35%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 41% 34% 40% 45% 44% 27%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 44% 33% 42% 42% 39% 27%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[77] 49% 41% 47% 46% 51% 30%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 46% 30% 45% 38% 37% 24%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 28% 47% 34% 32% 24%
2013 election
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 45% 44% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Green, Antony (12 November 2013). "Timetable for the Next Federal Election". abc.net.au. Retrieved 13 November 2013. 
  2. ^ 2013 Parliamentary Sittings: APH
  3. ^ See Anthony Green's Election Blog
  4. ^ Section 32 of the Constitution
  5. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
  6. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
  7. ^ Section 57 of the Constitution
  8. ^ Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
  9. ^ Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28
  10. ^ The reason why it does not expire on 12 November 2016 is because 12 November 2013 was "Day 1" of the current House, not "Day 0". Therefore 12 November 2016 would be "Year 3, Day 1" and if the House sat on this day, it would be serving for longer than its 3-year mandate. Therefore its term would expire on the previous day. See Anthony Green's Election Blog
  11. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
  12. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
  13. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158
  14. ^ Possible federal election dates
  15. ^ "Abbott's team to be sworn in next week". theage.com.au. 9 September 2013. Retrieved 13 September 2013. 
  16. ^ Senator Madigan cuts ties with Democratic Labour Party, will serve out term as independent: ABC 4 September 2014
  17. ^ "Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives". Australian Electoral Commission. 13 November 2014. Retrieved 14 November 2014. 
  18. ^ Willingham, Richard (10 February 2015). "Former minister Alan Griffin to leave politics". The Age. Retrieved 10 February 2015. 
  19. ^ ABC News. 14 April 2015 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-14/bernie-ripoll-retirement-opens-door-for-milton-dick/6392358. Retrieved 14 April 2015.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  20. ^ "Queensland senator Joe Ludwig to resign at next election". ABC Online. 10 March 2015. 
  21. ^ "Queensland Labor senator Jan McLucas loses preselection battle to contest next Federal election". ABC Online. 5 April 2015. 
  22. ^ "L-NP vote up 1% as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten under controversy for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and caught out on a lie – however ALP would still win a Federal Election". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 29 June 2015. 
  23. ^ a b Phillip Hudson (15 June 2015). "Newspoll: Bill Shorten approval rating at record low 28 per cent". The Australian. 
  24. ^ "ALP increases lead after Hockey says first home buyers should ‘get a good job that pays good money’". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 15 June 2015. 
  25. ^ "Voters drift away from Tony Abbott amid worsening housing affordability crisis and same-sex marriage debate". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 15 June 2015. 
  26. ^ "Tony Abbott passes Bill Shorten on approval rating". Newspoll. Retrieved 2 May 2015. 
  27. ^ "Federal politics – voting intention". Essential Vision. Essential Media Communications. Retrieved 27 May 2015. 
  28. ^ "‘Budget Bounce’ over for the L-NP as ALP regain initiative with Shorten’s call for same-sex marriage". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Researcg. Retrieved 3 June 2015. 
  29. ^ "Federal politics – voting intention". Essential Vision. Essential Media Communications. Retrieved 27 May 2015. 
  30. ^ "L-NP gets ‘Budget boost’ – now highest in over a year (February 2014)". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan. Retrieved 18 May 2015. 
  31. ^ "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Coalition draws 50-50 with Labor, Abbott approval soars". The Age. Retrieved 17 May 2015. 
  32. ^ "Newspoll: Budget win for voters, economy … and Tony Abbott". The Australian. Retrieved 17 May 2015. 
  33. ^ "ReachTel: 7 News - National Poll - 13 May 2015". ReachTel. Retrieved 15 May 2015. 
  34. ^ The Essential Report (Report). Essential Research. 12 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015. 
  35. ^ "Newspoll: Tony Abbott catches Shorten, Labor keeps lead". The Australian. Retrieved 5 May 2015. 
  36. ^ "L-NP vote virtually unchanged as Abbott Government prepares for second Federal Budget". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 4 May 2015. 
  37. ^ a b "Newspoll: Bill Shorten posts worst ratings as Tony Abbott claws back ground". Newspoll. 12 April 2015. Retrieved 13 April 2015. 
  38. ^ a b "Abbott and Hockey lead Coalition poll dive". Ipsos. 12 April 2015. Retrieved 13 April 2015. 
  39. ^ "L-NP support jumps following Mike Baird’s triumph in NSW Election". Roy Morgan Research. 7 April 2015. Retrieved 8 April 2015. 
  40. ^ "7 News - National Poll - 29 March 2015". ReachTEL. 30 March 2015. Retrieved 2 April 2015. 
  41. ^ a b Peter Mumble (25 March 2015). "Mumble: Newspoll takes pressure off Tony Abott’s leadership". The Australian. Retrieved 26 March 2015. 
  42. ^ "Federal ALP increases lead as NSW prepares to vote in State Election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 March 2015. Retrieved 25 March 2015. 
  43. ^ Essential Media (10 March 2015). "Essential: Federal politics – voting intention". Retrieved 12 March 2015. 
  44. ^ a b Phillip Hudson (9 March 2015). "Newspoll: Tony Abbott rises but Labor has commanding lead". The Australian. Retrieved 9 March 2015. 
  45. ^ Roy Morgan Research (10 March 2015). "Roy Morgan Research: L-NP support increases after PM Abbott commits to sending Australian troops to Iraq". Retrieved 12 March 2015. 
  46. ^ Essential. 1 Jul 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport. Retrieved 6 Jul 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  47. ^ Morgan. 30 Jun 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5659-federal-voting-intention-june-30-2014-201406300634. Retrieved 6 Jul 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  48. ^ Essential. 30 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-32. Retrieved 4 May 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  49. ^ Essential. 20 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-32. Retrieved 28 May 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  50. ^ Essential. 18 May 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5591-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-may-19-2014-201405190655. Retrieved 20 May 2014.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
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