Next Australian federal election

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Next Australian federal election
Australia
2013 ←
On or before 14 January 2017

All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Leader Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 14 September 2015 (2015-09-14) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Wentworth Maribyrnong
Last election 90 seats
45.55%
55 seats
33.38%
Seats needed Steady Increase21
2013 TPP 53.5% 46.5%
TPP polling 56% 44%
BPM polling 59% 20%

  Richard Di Natale Clive Palmer
Leader Richard Di Natale Clive Palmer
Party Greens Palmer United
Leader since 6 May 2015 (2015-05-06) April 2013 (2013-04)
Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Fairfax
Last election 1 seat
8.65%
1 seat
5.49%
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75

  Bob Katter
Leader Bob Katter
Party Katter's Australian
Leader since 3 June 2011 (2011-06-03)
Leader's seat Kennedy
Last election 1 seat
1.04%
Seats needed Increase75

Incumbent Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
Liberal/National coalition

The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 44th Parliament, and must be held on or before 14 January 2017.

Elections in Australia use a full-preference instant-runoff voting system in single member seats for the lower house, the House of Representatives, and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house, the Senate. Voting is compulsory.

By Westminster convention, but subject to Constitutional constraints, the decision as to the type of election and date on which an election is to take place is that of the Prime Minister, who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the House of Representatives and then issuing writs for election.

Election date[edit]

Section 13 of the Constitution of Australia requires that in half-Senate elections the election of State senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. As the terms of half the senators end on 30 June 2017, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2016, and the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 6 August 2016.[1] There is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, and there are precedents for separate elections; however, governments and the electorate have long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously.

A House-only election can be called at any time during the parliamentary term. Whether held simultaneously with an election for the Senate or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 14 January 2017,[1] which is calculated under provisions of the Constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the Constitution provides that the term of a House of Representatives expires three years from the first sitting of the House, unless it is dissolved earlier. The last federal election was held on 7 September 2013, and the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013,[2] and its term would expire on 11 November 2016.[3] Writs for election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House.[4] Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations,[5] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,[6] resulting in the latest election date of Saturday, 14 January 2017.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[7] That means any double dissolution must be granted by 11 May 2016. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election is 16 July 2016.[1]

On 2 November 2015, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull stated: "I would say around September–October [2016] is when you should expect the next election to be."[8] However in December 2015, the ABC reported that some "senior Liberal MPs" had been seeking an election as early as March 2016.[9] An election held at this time would require a separate half-Senate election to be held in late 2016 or early 2017 (unless a double dissolution were to occur in advance of the March 2016 poll).[10]

Constitutional and legal provisions[edit]

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[11]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[12] Since the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013, it will expire on 11 November 2016.[13]
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 11 November 2016 is 21 November 2016.
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[5] Twenty-seven days after 21 November 2016 is 18 December 2016.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[6] Thirty-one days after 18 December 2016 is 18 January 2017, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[14] The Saturday before 18 January 2017 is 14 January 2017. This is therefore the latest possible date for the election. However, it is unlikely that the election would be held this late, as schools would be closed for summer holidays at this time. Governments tend to avoid holding elections during school holidays, since schools are often used as polling places.[15]

Background[edit]

The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, on a swing of 17 seats or 3.6% on a two-party basis, defeating the six-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

The Abbott Government was sworn in to office on 18 September 2013.[16]

Kevin Rudd resigned as leader of the Australian Labor Party following the defeat of the party. Chris Bowen was the interim leader of the Labor Party in the lead-up to a leadership election. Two candidates, Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten, declared their candidacy for the Labor leadership, with Shorten declared the winner on 13 October 2013.

Rudd resigned from parliament on 22 November 2013, triggering a 2014 Griffith by-election, which was held on 8 February, with Terri Butler retaining the seat for Labor. A 2015 Canning by-election, triggered on 21 July following the death of Liberal Don Randall, was held on 19 September with Andrew Hastie retaining the seat for the Liberals, despite having to rely on preferences after suffering a substantial swing to the Labor candidate.[17]

As a result of lost ballot papers, on 18 February 2014 the High Court of Australia, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, ordered a new half-Senate election for Western Australia, which took place on Saturday 5 April 2014.

Senator John Madigan resigned from the Democratic Labour Party and became an independent Senator in September 2014, citing long-term internal party tensions.[18]

On 24 November 2014, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie resigned from the Palmer United Party and on 13 March 2015, Queensland Senator Glenn Lazarus also announced his resignation from the Palmer United Party, both continuing to sit as independents.

On 14 September 2015, the incumbent Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, was challenged for the leadership of the Liberal Party and thus the prime ministership by Malcolm Turnbull, the Minister for Communications. Turnbull won the vote 54 to 44 and on 15 September was sworn in as Prime Minister, starting the Turnbull Government.

Joe Hockey was replaced as Treasurer in Turnbull's cabinet, and announced his resignation from parliament shortly afterwards. A 2015 North Sydney by-election was held on 5 December. The seat was retained for the Liberal Party by Trent Zimmerman. Zimmerman won with 48.2 percent of the primary vote after a larger-than-predicted 12.8 percent swing against the Turnbull Coalition Government. This was only the second time in North Sydney since federation that the successful Liberal candidate did not obtain a majority of the primary vote, and had to rely on preferences. Zimmerman faced a double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − despite the absence of a Labor candidate. Labor have never been successful in the safe Liberal seat. The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2 percent against independent Stephen Ruff compares to the previous election vote of 65.9 percent against Labor.[19] The reduction of 5.7 percent cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing" − when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties does not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows.[20][21] Ian Macfarlane attempted to defect from the Liberal party room to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and the Mal Brough James Ashby diary controversy deepened in the last week of the campaign.[22][23] Along with the unexpected by-election swing and Turnbull's significantly lessened personal ratings in the concurrent December Newspoll, some News Limited journalists opined Malcolm Turnbull's honeymoon to be over.[24][25][26][27][28]

The Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) has listed many candidates throughout Australia for the next election, with further candidate announcements to be made in 2016.[29]

Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson announced on 18 December 2015 that he would leave parliament before the next election, after moving from the outer ministry in the Abbott Government to the backbench in the Turnbull Government. His parliamentary resignation will create a casual vacancy which is expected to be filled in March 2016. He said he would formally resign from parliament once his Liberal replacement was selected.[30][31]

Redistributions[edit]

In November 2014 the Australian Electoral Commission announced that a redistribution of electoral boundaries in New South Wales and Western Australia would be undertaken before the next election. A determination of the states' membership entitlements under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 means that Western Australia's entitlement will increase from 15 to 16 seats, and New South Wales' will decrease from 48 to 47 seats. A redistribution will also occur in the Australian Capital Territory, as seven years have elapsed since the last time the ACT's boundaries were reviewed.[32] On 16 November 2015, the AEC announced that a redistribution of electoral boundaries in Tasmania would be deferred until after the next election, as the Electoral Act provides that a redistribution shall not commence where there is less than a year until the expiry of the House of Representatives (ie., 11 November 2016).[33]

In October 2015 the AEC announced plans to abolish the seat of Hunter. Electors in the north of Hunter will join New England, while the roughly 40% remainder will become part of Paterson, where the Liberal margin is set to be notionally reduced from 9.8% to just 0.5% as a result. Hunter was first contested at the inaugural 1901 federal election; electorate naming guidelines state "Every effort should be made to retain the names of original federal divisions".[34] The commission proposes renaming Charlton to Hunter, and in honour of deceased Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, renaming Throsby to Whitlam.[35][36]

Retiring MPs and senators[edit]

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Labor[edit]

Liberal[edit]

National[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

Several research and polling firms conduct polls in relation to voting intentions in the lead-up to the next election. Some of the firms also ask voters whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the leaders of the two main parties, as well as who would be the better Prime Minister. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Graphical summary[edit]

Primary vote.
Aggregate of voting intention polls between this election and the previous. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Poll results[edit]

Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP Green Other L/NP ALP
28-31 Jan 2016 Newspoll[48] 46% 34% 11% 9% 53% 47%
16-17, 23-24 Jan 2016 Morgan[49] 43.5% 28% 15% 13.5% 55% 45%
21 Jan 2016 ReachTEL[50] 48.5% 31.8% 10.8% 9.1% 55% 45%
15-18 Jan 2016 Essential[51] 44% 35% 10% 12% 51% 49%
2-3, 9-10 Jan 2016 Morgan[52] 47% 29% 13% 11% 56% 44%
15 Dec 2015 Essential[53] 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
5-6, 12-13 Dec 2015 Morgan[54] 48% 27% 14.5% 10.5% 57.5% 42.5%
8 Dec 2015 Essential[55] 44% 36% 11% 10% 51% 49%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll[56] 45% 33% 12% 10% 53% 47%
1 Dec 2015 Essential[57] 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015 Morgan[58] 46.5% 28.5% 14% 11% 56% 44%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL[59] 48.8% 31.1% 11.2% 8.9% 55% 45%
24 Nov 2015 Essential[60] 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll[61] 46% 33% 11% 10% 53% 47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015 Morgan[62] 46% 28% 14.5% 11.5% 56% 44%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos[63][note 1] 48% 29% 13% 10% 57% 43%
10 Nov 2015 Essential[64] 45% 35% 10% 11% 52% 48%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll[65] 46% 34% 10% 10% 53% 47%
3 Nov 2015 Essential 45% 34% 11% 10% 53% 47%
27 Oct 2015 Essential[66] 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015 Morgan[67] 47% 28.5% 14.5% 10% 56.5% 43.5%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll[68] 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
22 Oct 2015 ReachTEL[69] 46.7% 33.0% 11.3% 9.1% 53% 47%
20 Oct 2015 Essential[70] 44% 36% 11% 9% 51% 49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015 Morgan[71] 46.5% 27.5% 15.5% 10.5% 56% 44%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos[72] 45% 30% 14% 10% 54% 46%
13 Oct 2015 Essential[73] 44% 36% 10% 10% 51% 49%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll[74] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015 Morgan[75] 47% 27.5% 14% 11.5% 56% 44%
1–4 Oct 2015 Essential[76] 44% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
24–28 Sep 2015 Essential 44% 35% 11% 11% 52% 48%
17–21 Sep 2015 Essential[77] 43% 37% 11% 9% 50% 50%
19–20 Sep 2015 Morgan[78] 46% 29.5% 13% 11.5% 55% 45%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll[79] 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy[80] 44% 36% 11% 2% 51% 49%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL[81][note 2] 43.3% 35.9% 11.9% 8.9% 50% 50%
14 Sep 2015 Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015 Morgan[82] 35% 36.5% 16% 12.5% 43% 57%
5–6 Sep 2015 Morgan[83] 36.5% 35.5% 16.5% 11.5% 45% 55%
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll[84] 39% 39% 12% 10% 46% 54%
26–30 Aug 2015 Essential[85] 40% 38% 11% 12% 48% 52%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL[86] 40.3% 37.5% 13.4% 8.9% 47% 53%
22–23 Aug 2015 Morgan[87] 38.5% 36% 14% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll[88] 38% 39% 13% 10% 46% 54%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos[89] 38% 36% 16% 11% 44% 56%
11–14 Aug 2015 Essential 41% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
8–9 Aug 2015 Morgan[90] 36.5% 37% 15.5% 11% 43% 57%
8–9 Aug 2015 Newspoll[91] 39% 39% 13% 9% 46% 54%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTel[92] 40.2% 38.3% 12.8% 8.7% 47% 53%
4–7 Aug 2015 Essential 40% 39% 11% 9% 47% 53%
28–31 Jul 2015 Essential[93] 39% 38% 12% 10% 47% 53%
30 Jul 2015 ReachTel[94] 40.6% 38% 12.9% 8.6% 47% 53%
25–26 Jul 2015 Morgan[95] 39% 35.5% 15% 10.5% 46% 54%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll[96] 40% 39% 12% 9% 47% 53%
14–17 Jul 2015 Essential 41% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
11–12 Jul 2015 Morgan[97] 41.5% 34.5% 13.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
4–5 Jul 2015 Newspoll[98] 40% 37% 13% 10% 48% 52%
2–4 Jul 2015 Ipsos[99] 39% 35% 16% 10% 47% 53%
27–28 Jun 2015 Morgan[100] 39% 36% 14% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
16 Jun 2015 Newspoll[101] 40% 34% 14% 12% 49% 51%
16 Jun 2015 Essential 42% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
13–14 Jun 2015 Morgan[102] 37.5% 37.5% 13.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos[103] 40% 37% 14% 10% 47% 53%
11–13 Jun 2015 Essential 41% 40% 9% 10% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll[104] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Essential[105] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015 Morgan[106] 41% 37% 13% 9% 47% 53%
26 May 2015 Essential[105] 41% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
18 May 2015 Morgan[107] 41.5% 35.5% 12.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[108] 43% 35% 13% 9% 50% 50%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[109] 40% 37% 12% 11% 47% 53%
13 May 2015 ReachTel[110] 41.1% 38.3% 12.1% 8.6% 47% 53%
7–10 May 2015 Essential[111] 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
6 May 2015 Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015 Newspoll[112] 39% 35% 12% 14% 48% 52%
4 May 2015 Morgan[113] 40% 37.5% 11.5% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
28 Apr 2015 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015 Morgan[114] 38.5% 38% 12% 11% 47% 53%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[115] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[116] 39% 38% 13% 9% 46% 54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015 Morgan[117] 40.5% 36% 12.5% 11% 47% 53%
29 Mar 2015 ReachTEL[118] 39.6% 40.5% 11.5% 8.5% 46% 54%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[119] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015 Morgan[120] 38% 40% 11% 11% 44% 56%
17 Mar 2015 Essential 40% 39% 9% 11% 48% 52%
10 Mar 2015 Essential[121] 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[122] 38% 39% 12% 11% 45% 55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015 Morgan[123] 39% 38% 12.5% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
20–22 Feb 2015 Essential 40% 41% 9% 10% 47% 53%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 38% 38% 12% 12% 47% 53%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015 Morgan 35% 41% 12% 12% 42.5% 57.5%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 41% 12% 12% 43% 57%
5 Feb 2015 ReachTEL 38.4% 41.4% 11.2% 8.9% 45% 55%
4–5 Feb 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
27 Jan 2015 ReachTEL 39.7% 40.2% 11.3% 8.8% 46% 54%
27 Jan 2015 Essential 39% 41% 9% 11% 46% 54%
20 Jan 2015 Essential 40% 40% 10% 11% 47% 53%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 38% 40% 10% 11% 46% 54%
12 Jan 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38.5% 9.5% 13.5% 45.5% 54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014 Morgan 37.5% 39.5% 12% 11% 43.5% 56.5%
16 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
12–15 Dec 2014 Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 46% 54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014 Morgan 35% 41% 11.5% 12.5% 42.5% 57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 40% 37% 12% 11% 48% 52%
2–4 Dec 2014 Galaxy 38% 41% 11% 10% 45% 55%
2 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014 Morgan 37% 37.5% 12% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
29–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 13% 13% 46% 54%
25 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
21 Nov 2014 ReachTEL 40.2% 38.7% 11.1% 9.9% 47% 53%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 39% 11% 14% 45% 55%
17 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
17 Nov 2014 Morgan 38% 38.5% 12% 11.5% 44.5% 55.5%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 13% 48% 52%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 38% 36% 13% 13% 46% 54%
4 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 42% 37% 12% 10% 49% 51%
28 Oct 2014 Essential 39% 39% 9% 12% 47% 53%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL 40.1% 37.5% 11.5% 10.9% 48% 52%
21 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
20 Oct 2014 Morgan 39.5% 35.5% 12% 13% 48% 52%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 41% 39% 10% 10% 48% 52%
7 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
4–5 Oct 2014 Morgan 40% 35% 12% 13% 47% 53%
4–5 Oct 2014 Galaxy 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 34% 11% 14% 49% 51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12% 12% 45.5% 54.5%
18 Sep 2014 ReachTEL 41.6% 37.4% 10.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014 Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46% 54%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48% 52%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49% 51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5% 55.5%
19 Aug 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
9–10 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44% 56%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48% 52%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46% 54%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46% 54%
1 Jul 2014 Essential[124] 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
30 Jun 2014 Morgan[125] 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5% 57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45% 55%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47% 53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46% 54%
27 May 2014 Essential[126] 40% 39% 9% 12% 48% 52%
20 May 2014 Essential[127] 40% 40% 8% 12% 48% 52%
17–18 May 2014 Morgan[128] 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5% 57.5%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45% 55%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen[129] 35% 40% 14% 12% 44% 56%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll[130] 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
4 May 2014 Galaxy[131] 39% 37% 11% 13% 48% 52%
30 Apr 2014 Essential[126] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
22 Apr 2014 Morgan[132] 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48% 52%
15 Apr 2014 Essential[133] 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen[134] 40% 34% 17% 9% 48% 52%
8 Apr 2014 Essential[135] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
7 Apr 2014 Morgan[136] 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5% 51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll[137] 43% 34% 11% 12% 51% 49%
25 Mar 2014 Morgan[138] 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5% 54.5%
25 Mar 2014 Essential[139] 44% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll[140] 40% 36% 13% 11% 48% 52%
18 Mar 2014 Essential[141] 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen[142] 44% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49% 51%
5 Mar 2014 Essential[143] 44% 38% 8% 10% 51% 49%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[144] 39% 39% 10% 12% 46% 54%
23 Feb 2014 Morgan[145] 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[146] 44% 33% 12% 11% 52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll[147] 41% 35% 12% 12% 49% 51%
28 Jan 2014 Morgan[148] 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47% 53%
23 Jan 2014 ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47% 53%
17–20 Jan 2014 Essential[149] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
13 Jan 2014 Morgan[150] 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5% 52.5%
16 Dec 2013 Morgan[151] 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5% 52.5%
15 Dec 2013 ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48% 52%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013 Essential[152] 44% 36% 8% 11% 52% 48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013 Morgan (multi)[153] 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5% 51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12% 52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[154] 41% 37% 11% 11% 48% 52%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11% 53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12% 56% 44%
19–20 Oct 2013 Morgan[155] 43.5% 34.5% 10% 12% 51.5% 48.5%
13 Oct 2013 Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013 Morgan[156] 43.5% 34% 10.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013 Essential[157] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
12–15 Sep 2013 Essential[157] 44% 36% 9% 11% 53% 47%
2013 election 45.6% 33.4% 8.7% 12.3% 53.5% 46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013 Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14% 54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013 ReachTEL[158] 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6% 53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12% 54% 46%

Preferred Prime Minister and satisfaction polling[edit]

Date Firm Preferred Prime Minister Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Turnbull Shorten Turnbull Shorten
28–31 Jan 2016 Newspoll[48] 59% 20% 53% 31% 25% 60%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll[56] 60% 14% 52% 30% 23% 61%
Nov 2015 Essential[159] 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL[59][note 3] 71.4% 28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll[61] 64% 15% 60% 22% 26% 57%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos[63] 69% 18% 69% 16% 29% 57%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll[65] 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
Oct 2015 Essential 48% 19% 47% 17% 30% 42%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll[160] 63% 17% 58% 23% 26% 58%
20–22 Oct 2015 Morgan[161] 76% 14% 66% 18% 25% 62%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos[72] 67% 21% 68% 17% 32% 56%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 50% 25% 28% 53%
Sep 2015 Essential 53% 17% N/A N/A 29% 50%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll 55% 21% 42% 24% 29% 54%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy[80] 51% 20%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL[81] 61.9% 38.1%
15 Sep 2015 Morgan 70% 24%
Abbott Shorten Abbott Shorten
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll 37% 41% 30% 63% 30% 58%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL[86] 42.1% 57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll[88] 35% 40% 30% 63% 34% 52%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos 39% 45% 35% 59% 39% 49%
11 Aug 2015 Essential 36% 32% 38% 53% 29% 52%
9 Aug 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 61% 29% 57%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTEL 41.5% 58.5%
31 Jul 2015 ReachTEL 44.9% 55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll[96] 39% 36% 33% 60% 27% 59%
7 Jul 2015 Essential 37% 30% 37% 53% 27% 52%
6 Jul 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 60% 28% 56%
11–13 Jun 2015 Newspoll[101] 41% 38% 34% 56% 28% 54%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos[103] 41% 42%
2 Jun 2015 Essential 38% 33% 39% 50% 32% 45%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll[104] 41% 37% 38% 53% 32% 50%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[108] 44% 39% 42% 50% 41% 45%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[109] 41% 40% 39% 52% 35% 46%
12 Apr 2015 Essential 35% 32% 36% 54% 32% 41%
5 Apr 2015 Newspoll[112] 38% 38% 37% 56% 34% 50%
27 Apr 2015 Morgan 44% 39% 37% 53% 34% 48%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 33% 35% 33% 58% 33% 42%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[115] 40% 41% 33% 59% 33% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[116] 38% 46% 34% 60% 42% 44%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[119] 36% 41% 29% 61% 36% 47%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[122] 33% 44% 28% 63% 39% 42%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 39% 44% 32% 62% 43% 43%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 43% 25% 68% 35% 49%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 30% 48% 24% 68% 42% 40%
1 Feb 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
14 Jan 2015 Morgan 41% 43% 37% 52% 37% 40%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 35% 37% 37% 53% 39% 33%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 44% 33% 58% 37% 43%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 39% 47%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 43% 33% 57% 39% 43%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 43% 36% 55% 39% 41%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 36% 34% 39% 50% 37% 38%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 37% 52% 37% 45%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 41% 41% 42% 49% 43% 40%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 38% 53% 35% 46%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 38% 32% 40% 48% 35% 36%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 52% 38% 43%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 35% 54% 36% 43%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 39% 40% 36% 55% 40% 39%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 36% 54% 36% 44%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 38% 38% 36% 53% 38% 41%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 41% 31% 60% 34% 43%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 31% 62% 34% 41%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 40% 30% 61% 34% 45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 45% 33% 59% 38% 43%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 30% 60% 42% 39%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 40% 51% 34% 62% 47% 39%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 40% 38% 35% 56% 35% 41%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 45% 44% 43% 50% 43% 41%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 32% 41% 47% 34% 38%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 47% 31% 42%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 43% 36% 40% 50% 36% 43%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 48% 43% 45% 49% 42% 42%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 42% 36% 38% 50% 33% 43%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[144] 38% 37% 36% 52% 35% 39%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[144] 49% 39% 45% 47% 40% 40%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 45% 35% 35%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 41% 34% 40% 45% 44% 27%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 44% 33% 42% 42% 39% 27%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[154] 49% 41% 47% 46% 51% 30%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 46% 30% 45% 38% 37% 24%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 28% 47% 34% 32% 24%
2013 election
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 45% 44% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Ipsos asked respondents to nominate their own second preferences. Based only on 2013 preference flows, TPP is LNP 56% to ALP 44%.
  2. ^ Malcolm Turnbull succeeded Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader on 14 September 2015. Poll was conducted to gauge the public's response.
  3. ^ The "satisfied" result of the ReachTEL poll was derived from the sum of the percentage of respondents who rated the subject as "very good", "good" or "satisfactory".

References[edit]

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  2. ^ 2013 Parliamentary Sittings: APH
  3. ^ See Anthony Green's Election Blog
  4. ^ Section 32 of the Constitution
  5. ^ a b Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
  6. ^ a b Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
  7. ^ Section 57 of the Constitution
  8. ^ Kenny, Mark (2 November 2015). "Malcolm Turnbull's year of living courageously". The Age. Fairax Media. 
  9. ^ "What are the implications for Briggs, Brough and Turnbull?". ABC The Drum. Retrieved 4 January 2016. 
  10. ^ Green, Antony. "The Turnbull Government's Options for a 2016 Election". ABC News. Retrieved 4 January 2016. 
  11. ^ Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
  12. ^ Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28
  13. ^ The reason why it does not expire on 12 November 2016 is because 12 November 2013 was "Day 1" of the current House, not "Day 0". Therefore 12 November 2016 would be "Year 3, Day 1" and if the House sat on this day, it would be serving for longer than its 3-year mandate. Therefore its term would expire on the previous day. See Anthony Green's Election Blog
  14. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158
  15. ^ Possible federal election dates
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