2020 Bolivian general election

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2020 Bolivian general election

← 2019 3 May 2020
  Luis Arce (23588020275) (cropped).jpg Carlos Mesa, ex-President of Bolivia (croppeda).jpg Jorge Quiroga-1.jpg
Nominee Luis Arce Catacora Carlos Mesa Jorge Quiroga Ramírez
Party Movement for Socialism Civic Community Revolutionary Nationalist Movement
Running mate David Choquehuanca Gustavo Pedraza TBA

  Felix patzi.jpg Jeanine Áñez Chávez.jpg Luis-Fernando-Camacho.png
Nominee Félix Patzi Jeanine Áñez Luis Fernando Camacho
Party Third System Movement Democrat Social Movement TBA
Running mate Lucila Mendieta TBA Marco Pumari

  Chi Hyun Ching (cropped).png
Nominee Chi Hyun Chung
Party TBA
Running mate TBA

Incumbent Interim President

Jeanine Añez
MDS



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General elections will be held in Bolivia on 3 May 2020,[1] after the sequence of events that led to the installation of an interim government on 10 November 2019.

Background[edit]

On 10 November 2019, after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process, trade unions, the military and the police of Bolivia suggested that president Evo Morales resign. After General Williams Kaliman Romero made the military's request for Morales's resignation public, Morales complied, accompanied by other resignations by high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales the following day, which Morales accepted a day afterwards.[2][3]

As Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera, President of the Senate Adriana Salvatierra and President of the Chamber of Deputies Víctor Borda, had already resigned, there existed no explicitly constitutionally-designated successors. Furthermore, the First Vice President of the Senate, Rubén Medinaceli, had also resigned.[4] This left Jeanine Añez, the Second Vice President of the Senate, as the highest-ranking official still in office and prompted her to announce that she would be willing to ascend to the presidency on an interim basis in order to call for new elections. Thus, on 12 November 2019 Añez took temporary charge of the Senate of Bolivia, thereby formally placing herself in the line of succession as acting President of the Senate, and on this basis proceeded to declare herself the Constitutional President of the country. Her accession to office was formally legitimized by a decision of the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal later the same day, which stated that she had lawfully assumed office ipso facto, in accordance with the precedent laid out by Constitutional Declaration 0003/01 of 31 July 2001.[5][6]

On 20 November, Evo Morales offered to not run as a presidential candidate if he was allowed to return to Bolivia and conclude his term.[7]

The same day, the interim government presented a bill that aimed to forge a path to new elections. The two chambers congress were expected to debate the bill which would annul the 20 October election and appoint a new electoral board within 15 days of its passage, paving the way for a new vote.[8] The bill, drafted jointly by MAS and anti-Morales legislators, was approved on 23 November; it also prohibited Morales from participating in the fresh election.[9] In exchange, Áñez's government agreed to withdraw the armed forces from all protest areas (although some servicemen were still permitted to stay at some state companies to "prevent vandalism"), revoke her decree which granted the army immunity from criminal prosecution, release arrested pro-Morales protesters, protect lawmakers and social leaders from attacks and provide compensation for the families of those killed during the crisis. She approved the bill shortly thereafter.[10]

On 5 December, the president of the interim government Jeanine Áñez said she will not be a candidate, nor will she do politics for any presidential candidate.[11]This was further reiterated on 15 January 2020 by minister for the Presidency Yerko Núñez who said that "[Áñez] will not be a candidate. The President has stated on several occasions, she will not be a candidate, this is a government of peace, transition, and management because you can not stop the state apparatus."[12]

In spite of the above statements, Áñez launched her presidential candidacy on 24 January 2020.[13] A survey reported in the Bolivian newspaper Los Tiempos indicated that, while 43% of respondents considered her to have done a "good or very good" job as interim president (compared to 27% bad or very bad), only 24% of respondents consider that she should stand as a candidate in the upcoming elections. In that poll, 63% of respondents agreed with the opposing statement that "as interim president, Jeanine Áñez should call elections and not take advantage of her power to become a presidential candidate.[14]

Electoral system[edit]

The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system: a candidate is declared the winner if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and are 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival.[15] If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.[16]

Presidential candidates[edit]

As of 26 January 2020, nine candidates had officially stated their intention to run for the presidency:[17][18][19][20][21] [22][23][24][25] On 18 January 2020, the Unity Pact of MAS bases elected David Choquehuanca and Andrónico Rodríguez as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. On 20 January, Evo Morales announced that Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Choquehuanca would be the party's presidential and vice presidential candidates. This was following a vote by those members of MAS leadership present in Buenos Aires the previous day.[26] This difference caused some friction among different sections of the MAS bases, including the Barolina Sisa and Tupac Katari Federation who rejected these selections.[27][28] On 21 January, the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB) supplied a third candidacy combination of Choquehuanca paired with Orlando Gutiérrez. MAS President of the Senate, Eva Copa, said the matter was not yet closed and would be decided by a further meeting of the Unity Pact.[29] On 23 January, the Unity Pact ratified the Arce-Choquehuanca binomial chosen in Buenos Aires.[30] On 24 January, a new right-wing political alliance called "We Believe" ("Creemos") was formed, and endorsed the Camacho-Pumari ticket.[31] By the registration deadline, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that five policial coalitions had been registered.[32]

Party Presidential candidate Vice presidential candidate
Movement for Socialism (MAS) Luis Alberto Arce Catacora David Choquehuanca
Civic Community[a] Carlos Mesa Gustavo Pedraza
Libre 21[b] Jorge Quiroga Ramírez TBA
Third System Movement Félix Patzi Lucila Mendieta
Juntos[c] Jeanine Áñez TBA
We Believe[d] Luis Fernando Camacho Marco Pumari
TBA[33] Chi Hyun Chung TBA
United People[e] TBA TBA
Jallalla Bolivia Leonardo Chui Cristina Maydana
The Front For Victory Israel Rodríguez TBA

Opinion polls[edit]

2020[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Leonardo Chui
Israel Rodríguez
United People Candidate
Other
Would not vote
Undecided
Mercados y Muestras SRL January 2020 12% 26% 17% - 6% 17% 1% 3% - - 1%[f] 8% 9%
Ciesmori January 2020 15.6% 20.7%[g] 6.9% - 8.1% 13.8% - 1.6% - - 10.9%[h] 10.2% 12.2%

2019[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
MAS Candidate
Johnny Fernández
Other
Would not vote
Undecided
Mercados y Muestras SRL 24 December 2019 23%[i] 21% 13% 10% 9% - 2% - - - - - 14% 8%
Captura Consulting 5–15 December 2019 18.4%[j] 11.9% 12.8% - 8.5% 2.8% 1.8% 3.7% 2.1% 1.0% 7.5% 2.6% 5.1% 21.8%
12.0%[k] 13.7% - 8.0% 9.4% 3.7% 1.7% 4.8% 2.5% 2.3% 10.0% 3.5% 5.1% 23.3%
13.6%[l] 10.6% 11.1% 5.7% 8.4% 2.6% 2.7% 4.2% 2.2% - 7.3% 11.0%[m] 3.0% 17.6%
Mercados y Muestras SRL November 2019 16%[n] 14% 16% 16% 10% - - - - - - 8% 8% 12%

International reactions[edit]

Representatives of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Organization of American States (OAS) arrived in Bolivia on 9 January 2020 to monitor the 3 May elections. The USAID had been expelled in 2013.[34]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Coalition consisting of FRI, JESUCA and Chuquisaca Para Todos
  2. ^ Coalition consisting of MNR and MPS
  3. ^ Coalition consisting of MDS and Sol.Bo
  4. ^ Coalition consisting of ADN, PDC and UCS
  5. ^ Coalition consisting of PDC and MCSFA
  6. ^ Doria Medina with 1%
  7. ^ Generic MAS candidate
  8. ^ Pumari with 8.2%, Doria Medina with 1.8%, others with 0.9%
  9. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez
  10. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez
  11. ^ David Choquehuanca
  12. ^ Luis Arce Catacora
  13. ^ Waldo Albarracín with 1.1%, other with 9.9%
  14. ^ Andrónico Rodríguez

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Para mayo las nuevas elecciones en Bolivia". El Vocero de Puerto Rico (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 January 2020.
  2. ^ "Mexico says it would offer asylum to Bolivia's Morales if he sought it". 11 November 2019 – via www.reuters.com.
  3. ^ "Bolivia crisis: Evo Morales accepts political asylum in Mexico". BBC News. BBC. 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
  4. ^ Faiola, Anthony. "Evo Morales resigns as Bolivia's president after OAS election audit, protests". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
  5. ^ "Bolivias Constitutional Court Confirms Legitimacy Of Power Transfer To Anez". UrduPoint. Archived from the original on 13 November 2019. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
  6. ^ "COMUNICADO | Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional". tcpbolivia.bo. Archived from the original on 13 November 2019. Retrieved 15 December 2019.
  7. ^ "Evo Morales ofreció no presentarse a elecciones si le permiten regresar a Bolivia y terminar su mandato". Bloomberg (in Spanish). Infobae. 20 November 2019. Archived from the original on 21 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  8. ^ "Bolivia government proposes election bill as its seeks path to peace". Reuters. 20 November 2019. Archived from the original on 24 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  9. ^ "Bolivia Marks End of Era, as Legislators Rush to Approve New Election Without Evo Morales". The Wall Street Journal. 23 November 2019. Archived from the original on 29 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  10. ^ "Bolivian leader agrees to withdraw military in deal to 'pacify' country". Reuters. 24 November 2019. Archived from the original on 28 November 2019. Retrieved 25 November 2019.
  11. ^ Jeanine Áñez no postulará a la Presidencia de Bolivia, según el Gobierno interino. Publicado el 5 de diciembre de 2019. Consultado el 8 de diciembre de 2019.
  12. ^ "Government clarifies that Jeanine Áñez will not be a candidate for the Presidency" (in Spanish).
  13. ^ "Jeanine Áñez confirma candidatura presidencial para las elecciones generales". ATBDigital (in Spanish). 24 January 2020. Retrieved 24 January 2020.
  14. ^ "Survey approves of Áñez's term as president, but rejects her candidacy" (in Spanish). 26 January 2020.
  15. ^ "Will Bolivians give Evo Morales a fourth term?". BBC. 20 October 2019. Archived from the original on 20 October 2019. Retrieved 21 October 2019.
  16. ^ "El Tribunal Electoral define la eventual segunda vuelta para el 15 de diciembre". El Deber. Archived from the original on 2 April 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
  17. ^ "Evo Morales anunció que Luis Arce será el candidato a presidente del MAS en las nuevas elecciones de Bolivia". Infobae (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  18. ^ "Carlos Mesa se postula como candidato a los próximos comicios de Bolivia". France 24. 3 December 2019. Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  19. ^ "El líder cívico Luis Fernando Camacho firmó un acuerdo preliminar con el MNR con miras a las elecciones en Bolivia". Infobae (in Spanish). 2 December 2019. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
  20. ^ "Patzi anuncia que será candidato a la Presidencia en las próximas elecciones". lostiempos.com (in Spanish). 28 December 2019. Retrieved 28 December 2019.
  21. ^ "Jeanine Áñez confirma candidatura presidencial para las elecciones generales". ATBDigital (in Spanish). 24 January 2020. Retrieved 24 January 2020.
  22. ^ "Chi Hyung Chung confirma que será candidato en las nuevas elecciones". Correo del Sur (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  23. ^ "MNR rompe acuerdo con Fernando Camacho y decide apoyar a Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga". www.fmbolivia.com (in Spanish). 22 January 2020. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
  24. ^ "Jallalla Bolivia presenta a una mujer aymara como candidata a la vicepresidencia". www.noticiasfides.com (in Spanish). 23 January 2020. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
  25. ^ "Israel Rodríguez ratifica su candidatura a la presidencia por FPV". eju.tv (in Spanish). 8 January 2020. Retrieved 8 January 2020.
  26. ^ "Evo Morales anunció que Luis Arce será el candidato a presidente del MAS en las nuevas elecciones de Bolivia". Infobae (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  27. ^ "The social and peasant organizations of the department of La Paz feel betrayed by the decision of Evo Morales" (in Spanish). 21 January 2020.
  28. ^ "Morales defends Arce, but more voices of rejection arise" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
  29. ^ "Copa MAS Binomial: We take it as a proposal to be debated" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
  30. ^ "Unity pact accepts the Arce-Choquehuanca" (in Spanish). 23 January 2020.
  31. ^ "Three parties join to endorse the Camacho-Pumari ticket" (in Spanish). 24 January 2020.
  32. ^ "These are all alliances that submitted their applications for registration before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal" (in Spanish). 25 January 2020.
  33. ^ "PDC anuncia que Chi Hyun Chung ya no será su candidato en las próximas elecciones". Los Tiempos (in Spanish). 29 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  34. ^ Higgins, Eoin (10 January 2020). "USAID Arriving in Bolivia to 'Monitor Elections,' Raising Fears of US Meddling in May 3 Vote". Common Dreams. Retrieved 23 January 2020.