Next Estonian parliamentary election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Next Estonian parliamentary election

← 2019 by the 5 March 2023

All 101 seats in the Riigikogu
51 seats needed for a majority
  Kaja Kallas (36784407542) (cropped).jpg RK Jüri Ratas (cropped).jpg RK Mart Helme (cropped).jpg
Leader Kaja Kallas Jüri Ratas Mart Helme
Party Reform Centre EKRE
Last election 34 seats, 28.8% 26 seats, 23.1% 19 seats, 17.8%

  RK Helir-Valdor Seeder (cropped).jpg Indrek Saar 2017-05-25 (cropped).jpg
Leader Helir-Valdor Seeder Indrek Saar
Party Pro Patria Social Democratic
Last election 12 seats, 11.4% 10 seats, 9.8%

Estonian Electoral Districts Blank.png
Electoral districts

Incumbent Prime Minister

Jüri Ratas
Centre



The next parliamentary elections will be held in Estonia by 5 March 2023 to elect all 101 members of the Riigikogu.

Electoral system[edit]

The 101 members of the Riigikogu are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. Seats are allocated using a modified D'Hondt method. Parties have to pass a nationwide threshold of 5%, but if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeds or equals the simple quota (obtained by dividing the number of valid votes cast in the electoral district by the number of mandates in the district), they are elected.[1]

Seats by electoral district[edit]

Electoral District Seats[2]
1 Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn 10
2 Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn 13
3 Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn 8
4 Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties 15
5 Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties 6
6 Lääne-Viru county 5
7 Ida-Viru county 7
8 Järva and Viljandi counties 7
9 Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu) 7
10 City of Tartu 8
11 Võru, Valga and Põlva counties 8
12 Pärnu county 7

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The bottom number under the prior election represents the number of seats obtained.

30 day moving average trend line of Estonian polls towards the election in 2023, each line corresponds to a political party.
Fieldwork Polling Firm Sample Size Ref Kesk EKRE I SDE E200 Green EVA Others Lead Gov. Opp.
05 – 12 August 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 33.5 22.0 16.4 9.1 10.0 3.5 3.9 0.3 1.1 11.5 47.5 51.2
30 July – 05 August 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 41.0 18.9 12.7 8.8 8.1 4.2 2.8 0.8 3.0 22.1 40.1 56.9
22 – 30 July 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 36.2 17.8 17.7 7.1 12.0 4.0 1.9 0.6 2.6 18.4 42.6 54.8
18–24 July 2019 Kantar Emor 1,305 34.5 15.3 19.4 6.8 10.8 7.9 15.1 41.5 53.2
15 – 22 July 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 39.1 18.3 16.6 7.7 7.6 4.4 2.7 0.2 3.6 20.8 42.6 54.0
8 – 15 July 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 37.7 16.4 15.8 11.0 8.7 4.0 2.7 1.1 2.7 21.3 43.2 54.2
2 – 8 July 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 31.9 22.3 18.0 8.2 11.0 4.3 2.5 0.9 1.0 9.6 48.5 50.6
26 June – 1 July 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 34.3 20.8 17.5 9.2 9.8 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.7 13.5 47.5 51.7
11–19 June 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 37.7 20.2 15.2 5.6 13.6 4.0 1.7 0.3 1.6 17.5 41.0 57.3
6–13 June 2019 Kantar Emor 1,129 36.0 14.7 16.7 6.9 12.8 8.3 3.0 0 1.0 19.3 38.3 60.1
4–11 June 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 30.3 21.4 19.1 8.7 9.4 5.8 2.6 1.4 1.0 8.9 49.2 49.5
28 May–10 June 2019 Turu-uuringud 1,000 32 19 18 9 11 4 1 1 1 13 46 49
27 May–03 June 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 30 23 19 8 12 3 3 0 1 7 50 48
20-27 May 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 33.0 19.5 16.8 10.4 11.7 4.6 2.4 0.4 1.1 13.5 46.7 52.1
20-23 May 2019 Kantar Emor 1,390 30.6 14.7 15.0 7.9 12.1 11.8 15.6 37.6 54.4
14–20 May 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 28.6 21.5 22.0 8.8 9.4 5.3 2.2 0.7 1.5 6.6 52.3 46.2
2-15 May 2019 Turu-uuringud 2,037 27 20 17 10 10 8 3 1 1 7 47 49
6-13 May 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 31.8 19.4 16.2 8.0 12.2 5.1 4.5 0.3 2.0 12.4 43.6 53.9
7–9 May 2019 Kantar Emor 1,271 33.5 15.3 16.9 6.1 12.9 11.5 - - 3.8 16.6 38.3 57.9
29 Apr–07 May 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 35.6 19.9 15.0 8.3 10.8 6.0 2.5 0.5 1.6 15.7 43.2 55.4
22–29 Apr 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 33.6 18.5 19.1 7.6 8.5 7.2 3.4 0.3 1.9 14.5 45.2 53.0
24 Apr 2019 The Jüri Ratas' second cabinet is formed by the Centre, EKRE and Pro Patria.
15–22 Apr 2019 Norstat ≥1,000 32 20.1 20.1 9.2 8.4 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.7 11.9 49.4 49.1
10–15 Apr 2019 Kantar Emor 1,000 32.3 17 15.4 8.5 11.4 10.3 2.7 1.1 - 15.3 40.9 57.8
8–15 Apr 2019 Norstat 1,000 34.6 19.4 18 7.3 10.1 5.9 2.5 0.3 1.6 16 44.7 53.4
18 Mar–15 Apr 2019 Norstat 4,014 33.0 20.6 17.9 9.4 9.2 5.8 2.3 1.8 12.4 47.9 50.3
1–8 Apr 2019 Norstat 1,000 33.4 22.5 14.8 11.6 8.0 4.8 3.0 0.5 1.3 10.9 48.9 49.7
25–29 Mar 2019 Norstat 1,000 32.5 20.5 19.1 9.0 10.1 5.5 1.7 0.6 1.0 12.0 48.6 50.4
18–24 Mar 2019 Norstat 1,000 31.9 19.5 18.8 8.9 9.3 7.2 2.1 0.9 1.5 12.4 47.2 51.4
14–21 Mar 2019 Kantar Emor 1,214 32 17 18 7 11 10 3 0.3 1.7 14.0 42.0 56.3
5–18 Mar 2019 Turu-uuringute AS 1,004 27 24 21 11 9 5 1 1 1 3.0 56.0 43.0
11–15 Mar 2019 Norstat 1,000 36.9 19.4 12.6 11.2 9.0 6.5 1.7 0.6 2.1 17.5 43.2 54.7
12–13 Mar 2019 Kantar Emor 752 30 19.4 18.1 7.3 12.5 8.5 1.7 0.6 2.2 10.6 44.8 53.3
5–11 Mar 2019 Norstat 1,000 31.9 21.2 18.1 11.4 9.1 4.4 1.7 1.1 1.2 10.7 50.7 48.2
3 Mar 2019 Election Results N/A 28.9 23.1 17.8 11.4 9.8 4.4 1.8 1.2 1.6 5.7 52.3 46.1
34 26 19 12 10 0 0 0 8.0 57 44

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Riigikogu Election Act". Riigi Teataja. 20 January 2015. Retrieved 1 April 2015.
  2. ^ "Mandaatide jaotamine 2019. a Riigikogu valimisteks". Estonian National Electoral Committee. Retrieved 9 January 2019.

External links[edit]