Next Icelandic parliamentary election

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Next Icelandic legislative election

← 2017 On or before 23 October 2021

All 63 seats in the Althing
32 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Bjarni Benediktsson vid Nordiska Radets session i Stockholm.jpg Katrín Jakobsdóttir at Göteborg Book Fair 2012 03.jpg Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 2016 (cropped).png
Leader Bjarni Benediktsson Katrín Jakobsdóttir Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson
Party Independence Left-Green Progressive
Leader since 29 March 2009 24 February 2013 2 October 2016
Leader's seat Southwest Reykjavík North South
Last election 16 seats, 25.2% 11 seats, 16.9% 8 seats, 10.7%

  Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 2016 (cropped resized).jpg
Leader Logi Már Einarsson Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson Halldóra Mogensen[a]
Party Social Democratic Centre Pirates
Leader since 31 October 2016 24 September 2017 14 September 2017
Leader's seat Northeast Northeast Reykjavík North
Last election 7 seats, 12.1% 7 seats, 10.9% 6 seats, 9.2%

  Thorgerdur K. Gunnarsdottir, Islands kulturminister (cropped).jpg
Leader Inga Sæland Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir
Party People's Reform
Leader since 27 January 2017 11 October 2017
Leader's seat Reykjavík South Southwest
Last election 4 seats, 6.9% 4 seats, 6.7%

Wahlkreise in Island.svg
Electoral constituencies of Iceland

Incumbent Prime Minister

Katrín Jakobsdóttir
Left-Green



The next Icelandic parliamentary election to elect members of the Althing will be held no later than 23 October 2021.

Background[edit]

Previous election[edit]

The 2017 parliamentary election was called after the collapse of the coalition government between the Independence Party, Reform Party, and Bright Future after the withdrawal of the latter over a breach of trust involving a request to grant a convicted pedophile "restored honor" from the father of Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson.[1][2][3] In the 2017 election, the Independence Party lost 5 seats and was reduced to 16, while the Reform Party lost 3 to win 4, and Bright Future was eliminated from the Althing entirely. The Left-Green Movement gained 1 seat to win 11, the Social Democratic Alliance gained 4 seats to win 7, the Progressive Party remained steady with 8 seats, and the Pirate Party lost 4 seats and was reduced to 6 in total. Two parties entered the Althing for the first time, with the People's Party securing 4 seats and the Centre Party winning 7 seats.[4]

With 16 seats and 25.2% of the vote, the Independence Party achieved its second-worst electoral performance in its history in terms of vote percentage, the worst being the 2009 election, and tied its record low number of seats.[5] A total of 24 women were elected to the Althing, compared to 30 in the 2016 election.[6] Of those elected to the Althing, 19 are new, but this is considerably lower than in 2016 with 32.[7]

Government formation[edit]

On 30 October, President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson met with the leaders of the eight parliamentary parties.[8] The four former opposition parties held informal talks,[9] with the Progressive Party in pole position to determine whether the Independence Party or the Left-Greens would lead the next government.[10] After meeting with Guðni, Left-Green leader Katrín Jakobsdóttir declared that she wanted to form a government with the four former opposition parties,[11] noting that though a coalition with additional parties would provide more than 32 seats, it was out of consideration before a four-party coalition was first attempted.[12] On 2 November, Guðni Th. Jóhannesson granted Katrín Jakobsdóttir, leader of the Left-Green Movement, the mandate to form a coalition between her party, the Progressives, Social Democratic Alliance, and Pirates,[13] the four having agreed to begin formal coalition talks.[14]

On 6 November, after the Progressives announced that they would not continue talks over difficult issues with such a thin majority, Katrín announced that she would return her mandate.[15] In the following days, the leaders of the Left-Greens, Independence Party, and Progressive Party discussed the possibility of forming a coalition together, with the Left-Greens insistent that Katrín become prime minister in that case,[16] an idea supported by the Progressives;[17] in exchange, demissionary prime minister Bjarni Benediktsson would be appointed finance minister.[18] Talks between the three parties were completed swiftly, and after meeting with Katrín on 28 November, Guðni formally granted her the mandate to lead a government with the Independence Party and Progressive Party, pending the support of each of the parties, with the new government seated on 30 November.[19]

According Article 22 of the constitution, the president must convene the newly elected Althing within 10 weeks of the election, though it may need to meet earlier in order to approve the 2018 budget.[20]

Electoral system[edit]

The 63 members of the Althing are elected by closed list proportional representation in six multi-member constituencies, with 54 seats distributed between parties at the constituency level with no electoral threshold and 9 leveling seats assigned to party lists at the national level with a threshold of 5 percent required in order to ensure proportionality with the election result.[21] The 54 constituency seats are distributed within each constituency according to the D'Hondt method.[22] Election lists are determined by parties; although voters have the option of marking preferential votes for particular candidates, these have no effect on the result.[21]

In the 2017 election, the Social Democratic Alliance received 7 seats – fewer than the Progressive Party, which came third in number of seats – despite the fact that it came third in the overall vote,[23] with the Centre Party similarly receiving more votes but securing fewer seats than the Progressive Party.[4] In the aftermath of the election, two professors at the University of Akureyri suggested that there was no need for a national constituency to allocate equalization seats, and that 15 leveling seats would be necessary to ensure proportionality in the future.[24] In addition, the imbalance in number of votes between constituencies nearly violated the level stipulated in the constitution, with 2,690 votes cast in the Northwest constituency compared to 5,346 in the Southwest constituency, a ratio of 199%, just short of the constitutional limit of 200%.[25]

Date[edit]

Per Article 20 in Chapter V of Act No. 24 from the 16 May 2000 Law Concerning Parliamentary Elections to the Althing, last amended in 2017, elections must be held no later than the same weekday of the month four years after the previous elections, counting from the turn of the month;[26] therefore, because the 2017 election took place on the fourth Saturday in October, the latest possible date for the next election is 23 October 2021.[27]

Parties[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the Althing after the 2017 parliamentary election.

Name Ideology Leader 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
D Independence Party
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Liberal conservatism Bjarni Benediktsson 25.2%
16 / 63
V Left-Green Movement
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Eco-socialism Katrín Jakobsdóttir 16.9%
11 / 63
B Progressive Party
Framsóknarflokkurinn
Nordic agrarianism Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 10.7%
8 / 63
S Social Democratic Alliance
Samfylkingin
Social democracy Logi Már Einarsson 12.1%
7 / 63
M Centre Party
Miðflokkurinn
Populism Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 10.9%
7 / 63
P Pirate Party
Píratar
Pirate politics Halldóra Mogensen[a] 9.2%
6 / 63
F People's Party
Flokkur fólksins
Disability rights Inga Sæland 6.9%
4 / 63
C Reform Party
Viðreisn
Liberalism Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir 6.7%
4 / 63

Opinion polls[edit]

The sample size listed is the total number of responses, if available; if not, then the sample size listed is the total number of individuals contacted, and the response rate for the poll is given.

Graphical summary[edit]

30 day moving average of polls from the election in 2017 to the next

Vote share[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Resp. D V S M B P F C Others Lead
MMR 8–12 Nov 2018 1,048 19.8 11.5 16.6 12.1 8.8 11.3 7.3 7.8 4.7 3.2
Gallup 2–31 Oct 2018 6,129 54.8 25.8 10.6 17.0 10.3 7.2 10.6 6.2 10.8 1.5 8.8
MMR 22 Oct 2018 20.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 7.8 13.2 5.9 9.9 2.3 4.3
MMR 3–9 Oct 2018 921 20.8 10.9 16.7 11.9 8.9 12.7 6.1 8.6 3.2 4.1
Gallup 3 Sep–1 Oct 2018 5,460 53.3 24.6 10.3 19.3 9.8 6.6 11.5 5.9 10.7 1.3 5.3
MMR 7–12 Sep 2018 953 21.3 11.1 19.8 10.8 8.1 13.2 5.3 7.9 2.5 1.5
Gallup 2 Aug–2 Sep 2018 7,094 52.6 22.7 11.7 19.3 8.7 8.2 12.5 5.7 10.1 1.1 3.4
MMR 10 Aug 2018 22.1 8.8 16.6 10.3 8.9 13.4 7.8 8.7 3.4 5.5
Gallup 29–30 Jul 2018 7,060 50.4 24.6 10.7 16.7 8.6 9.2 13.9 6.0 8.7 1.6 7.9
Gallup 31 May–1 Jul 2018 5,875 55.2 24.5 11.5 15.2 8.0 8.5 13.1 5.1 10.4 3.7 9.3
MMR 12–18 Jun 2018 925 21.6 12.7 15.1 10.6 9.5 14.3 8.2 5.8 2.2 6.5
Gallup 2–31 May 2018 7,113 56.6 23.8 13.3 17.9 8.5 8.9 13.3 4.1 8.4 1.8 5.9
MMR 16–22 May 2018 929 23.7 12.0 14.6 9.8 10.1 14.1 5.6 7.1 3.0 9.1
MMR 2 May 2018 24.5 13.7 14.7 10.3 8.2 13.0 5.8 7.6 2.1 9.8
Gallup 27 Mar–29 Apr 2018 6,766 56.3 25.3 14.1 17.7 7.9 9.6 11.0 4.2 7.7 2.5 7.6
MMR 13–19 Apr 2018 910 23.9 14.3 13.6 8.8 7.3 15.3 6.9 7.0 2.8 8.6
Gallup 1–26 Mar 2018 5,423 57.0 24.5 13.9 16.5 8.7 9.2 12.5 4.9 8.4 1.4 8.0
MMR 19 Mar 2018 25.3 14.8 16.1 10.7 9.0 13.2 3.6 6.0 1.4 9.2
MMR 12 Mar 2018 21.9 16.1 15.9 9.7 8.8 13.8 5.7 6.1 2.0 5.8
Gallup 1–28 Feb 2018 5,564 55.3 23.5 16.6 15.3 8.6 9.3 11.9 5.9 6.8 2.2 6.9
Gallup 4–31 Jan 2018 5,606 53.8 25.5 16.9 16.1 6.8 9.5 10.7 5.5 7.3 1.7 8.6
MMR 25–30 Jan 2018 928 22.3 18.4 14.9 7.7 11.2 12.9 4.2 6.0 2.4 3.9
MMR 9–17 Jan 2018 1,594 25.8 15.0 13.9 6.9 11.2 12.2 6.1 6.2 2.6 10.8
Gallup 30 Nov–28 Dec 2017 7,001 55.2 25.1 17.3 15.5 5.8 11.9 10.1 5.4 6.5 2.4 7.8
MMR 12–15 Dec 2017 923 23.2 16.7 16.8 8.7 8.5 14.1 3.7 5.7 2.5 6.4
Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir 4 Dec 2017 804 26.4 23.5 13.4 7.4 11.3 7.7 4.0 4.8 1.5 2.9
Gallup 8–30 Nov 2017 3,991 57.8 24.0 16.1 16.7 6.8 10.4 10.4 6.4 7.1 2.1 7.3
MMR 14–17 Nov 2017 944 24.4 13.0 16.0 10.5 9.5 9.9 8.4 6.5 1.8 8.4
2017 parliamentary election 28 Oct 2017 25.2 16.9 12.1 10.9 10.7 9.2 6.9 6.7 1.5 8.4

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Resp. D V S M B P F C Others Lead
Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir 4 Dec 2017 804 19 17 9 5 8 5 0 0 0 2
2017 parliamentary election 28 Oct 2017 16 11 7 7 8 6 4 4 0 5

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b The Pirate Party has no official leader; the leader of the parliamentary party has been Halldóra Mogensen since 2017.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Brynjólfur Þór Guðmundsson (15 September 2017). "Benedikt segir sig frá málum um uppreist æru". RÚV. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  2. ^ Ásrún Brynja Ingvarsdóttir (15 September 2017). "Viðreisn vill forsætis-og dómsmálaráðherra frá". RÚV. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  3. ^ Guðmundur Magnússon (17 September 2017). "Aftur tími óstöðugleikans". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Úrslit Alþingiskosninga í október 2017". Morgunblaðið. 29 October 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  5. ^ Alexander Gunnar Kristjánsson (29 October 2017). "Þingflokkur Sjálfstæðisflokks aldrei minni". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  6. ^ Sylvía Rut Sigfúsdóttir (29 October 2017). "Ekki færri konur á Alþingi síðan árið 2007". Vísir. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  7. ^ Bjarki Ármannsson (29 October 2017). "Nítján nýir þingmenn taka sæti". Vísir. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  8. ^ Ásrún Brynja Ingvarsdóttir (29 October 2017). "Forsetinn boðar forystumenn á sinn fund". RÚV. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  9. ^ ""Afslappað og ágætt svona"". Morgunblaðið. 31 October 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  10. ^ Brynjólfur Þór Guðmundsson (30 October 2017). "Framsókn í lykilaðstöðu". RÚV. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  11. ^ Hulda Hólmkelsdóttir (30 October 2017). "Katrín byrjuð að ræða ríkisstjórnarsamstarf við hina stjórnarandstöðuflokkana". Vísir. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  12. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (1 November 2017). "Þarf að ákveða að fara áfram eða hætta". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  13. ^ "Katrín komin með umboðið". Morgunblaðið. 2 November 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2017.
  14. ^ Elín Margrét Böðvarsdóttir (2 November 2017). "Katrín mætt á fund forseta". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  15. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (6 November 2017). "Katrín skilar forsetanum umboðinu". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 6 November 2017.
  16. ^ Agnes Bragadóttir (9 November 2017). "Þrír að hefja viðræður". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 10 November 2017.
  17. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (10 November 2017). "Þrír flokkar halda áfram óformlegum viðræðum". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 10 November 2017.
  18. ^ Agnes Bragadóttir (11 November 2017). "Sætta sig við Katrínu í forsæti". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 11 November 2017.
  19. ^ Jón Pétur Jónsson (28 November 2017). "Katrín fær stjórnarmyndunarumboðið". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
  20. ^ Sigtryggur Sigtryggsson (1 November 2017). "Fjárlög knýja á um að Alþingi komi saman". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  21. ^ a b Ísland, Alþingiskosningar, 27. April 2013: Úttektarskýrsla (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 24 June 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  22. ^ "Útreikningar við úthlutun jöfnunarsæta". Kosningavefur Dómsmála- og Mannréttindaráðuneytisins. 27 April 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  23. ^ Jóhann Ólafsson (29 October 2017). ""Haa, nei! Ég var að skoða þetta"". Morgunblaðið. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  24. ^ Ingvar Þór Björnsson (29 October 2017). "Fjölga þurfi jöfnunarsætum í fimmtán". Vísir. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  25. ^ "Vægi atkvæða nær tvöfalt í NV-kjördæmi". Morgunblaðið. 31 October 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  26. ^ "24/2000: Lög um kosningar til Alþingis". Alþingi. 1 September 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  27. ^ "Atkvæðagreiðsla utan kjörfundar hefst í dag". Morgunblaðið. 20 September 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.

External links[edit]