Next Irish general election
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168–178 of 169–179 seats (exact number TBC) in Dáil Éireann 85–90 (TBC) seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Irish general election to Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, the Oireachtas, will be held on or before Thursday 20 February 2025, to elect between 169 and 179 TDs across 39 constituencies (though the number of constituencies may change before the election).
No Taoiseach with a mandate to form a government was nominated by the Dáil when it first met on 20 February 2020. Leo Varadkar resigned as Taoiseach, but continued to carry out the duties pending the appointment of his successor.[1] Negotiations concluded on 27 June 2020 with the election of Micheál Martin as Taoiseach in a three-way coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party.
As the 2020 general election resulted in a situation whereby government formation required the participation of a minimum three political groups (or two political groups plus a number of independents), there is a possibility of a snap election being called before the end of the five-year term of the Dáil.
Electoral system[edit]
On 13 April 2022, the Irish Government approved a proposed amendment to section 56(2)(a) the Electoral Reform Bill 2022 (No 37 of 2022), which (as of May 2022) is currently before the Houses of the Oireachtas.[2] This amendment will empower the forthcoming electoral commission to set the number of members to be elected to the 34th Dáil to be between 169 and 179. This range reflects the growth in the population of the state,[3] and the requirement of Article 16.6.2 of the Constitution of Ireland that there be one TD elected for no less than every 20,000 of the population and no more than every 30,000. The exact size of the next Dáil will be based on the constituency review carried out following the preliminary results of the 2022 census of the Irish population. Constituency boundaries are revised every five years, after publication of data from the preceding census. Owing to a one year delay in holding census 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there will be no change to constituency boundaries or seats before mid 2023.[4]
A Dáil with between 169 and 179 members would be the largest number ever returned in the history of the State. Under current rules, TDs would be elected from 39 multi-seat constituencies. However, the number of constituencies may change, depending on the outcome of the constituency review. Each constituency will return between three and five TDs, using the single transferable vote system, in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers.
When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one. Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[5] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.
The outgoing Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically unless they announce to the Dáil that they wish to retire as a TD.[6]
Latest possible date[edit]
The current Dáil must be dissolved no later than Wednesday 19 February 2025. This date derives from the Electoral Act 1992, Section 33, which states that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.[7] The writ for the election must be moved on dissolution of the Dáil.[8] The election must take place on a day 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day) after the writs have been moved.[9][10]
Retiring incumbents[edit]
The following members of the 33rd Dáil are not seeking re-election:
Constituency | Departing TD | Party | First elected | Date confirmed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donegal | Joe McHugh | Fine Gael | 2007 | 4 May 2022[11][12] |
Opinion polls[edit]
In the run-up to the election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than 20 February 2025.

Last date of polling |
Polling firm / Commissioner | Sample size |
SF | FF | FG | GP | Lab | SD | PBP/S | Aon | O/I[nb 1] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
?? May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 1] | ? | 36 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 2] | 1,002 | 34 | 16 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
27 April 2022 | Red C/Business Post[p 3] | 1,014 | 34 | 16 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 4] | 1,135 | 33 | 18 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
23 March 2022 | Red C/Business Post[p 5] | 1,001 | 33 | 16 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 6] | 928 | 33 | 23 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 7] | 1,011 | 31 | 20 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
23 February 2022 | Red C/Business Post[p 8] | 1,001 | 33 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 9] | 922 | 34 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 10] | 1,086 | 32 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
26 January 2022 | Red C/Business Post[p 11] | 1,001 | 33 | 15 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 12] | ? | 34 | 24 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 13] | 1,369 | 33 | 19 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 14] | ? | 31 | 17 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 15] | 933 | 34 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 16][p 17] | 1,200 | 35 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
25 November 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 18] | 1,001 | 33 | 15 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 19] | ? | 32 | 17 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 20] | 912 | 37 | 20 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
22 October 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 21] | ? | 33 | 12 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 22] | 1,200 | 31 | 16 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | – [nb 2] |
12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 23] | 943 | 31 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 24][p 25] | 1,200 | 32 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 26] | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | – [nb 2] |
9 September 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 27] | 1,031 | 29 | 13 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 28] | 922 | 33 | 21 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 29] | 1,203 | 30 | 15 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 30] | 1,001 | 30 | 14 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 31] | 894 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
26 June 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 32] | 1,020 | 29 | 13 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 33] | 1,274 | 32 | 15 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 34] | 1,200 | 31 | 20 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 35] | 909 | 34 | 20 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
27 May 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 36][p 37] | 1,034 | 29 | 14 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 38] | 914 | 30 | 22 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | – [nb 2] | 8 |
15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 39] | 1,237 | 30 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
22 April 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 40] | 1,025 | 27 | 13 | 30 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 41] | 1,087 | 27 | 16 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
25 March 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 42] | 1,000 | 29 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 43] | 1,026 | 31 | 14 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
25 February 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 44][p 45] | 1,000 | 29 | 13 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 46] | 1,200 | 28 | 14 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 47] | 1,068 | 28 | 15 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
28 January 2021 | Red C/Business Post[p 48][p 49] | 1,000 | 27 | 16 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 50] | 1,247 | 29 | 15 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 51] | 916 | 32 | 22 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 52] | 1,044 | 28 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
25 November 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 53] | 1,000 | 30 | 12 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
24 October 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 54][p 55] | 1,000 | 27 | 11 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 56] | 931 | 30 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 57] | 1,200 | 29 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | – [nb 2] | 8 |
26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 58] | 1,200 | 28 | 14 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 59] | 900 | 32 | 19 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
9 September 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 60] | 1,000 | 27 | 10 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 61] | 1,000 | 30 | 11 | 35 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 62] | 921 | 30 | 20 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 63] | 1,000 | 26 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 2] | 10 |
20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 64] | 1,000 | 27 | 13 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 2] | 10 |
14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times[p 65] | 1,200 | 25 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 2 | [nb 3] | [nb 3] | [nb 3] | 10[nb 3] |
27 May 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 66][p 67] | 1,000 | 27 | 15 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 68] | 1,012 | 27 | 16 | 36 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | – [nb 2] | 6 |
29 April 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 69][p 70] | 1,019 | 27 | 14 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
25 March 2020 | Red C/Business Post[p 71][p 72] | 1,062 | 28 | 18 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 73][p 74] | 912 | 35 | 19 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 75][p 76] | 917 | 35 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
16 February 2020 | Amárach Research/Extra.ie[p 77][p 78] | 1,040 | 35 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3 | – [nb 2] | 10 |
8 February 2020 | General election | – | 24.5 | 22.2 | 20.9 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 13.9 |
Notes[edit]
- ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Not specifically mentioned in the report.
- ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP/S, Aontú and the SocDems.
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- ^ Electoral (Amendment) Act, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved 8 June 2021, Irish Statute Book.
- ^ Hosford, Paul (4 May 2022). "Fine Gael TD and former education minister Joe McHugh won't stand for re-election". Irish Examiner. Cork. ISSN 1393-9564. Archived from the original on 4 May 2022. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "Donegal TD Joe McHugh won't contest next general election". RTÉ News. 4 May 2022. Archived from the original on 4 May 2022. Retrieved 4 May 2022.