Next Irish general election

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Next Irish general election
Republic of Ireland
← 2020 On or before 20 February 2025

159 of 160 seats in Dáil Éireann
80 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 37
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 37
Fine Gael Leo Varadkar 35
Green Eamon Ryan 12
Labour Alan Kelly 6
Social Democrats Catherine Murphy & Róisín Shortall 6
Solidarity–PBP Collective leadership 5
Aontú Peadar Tóibín 1
Right to Change Joan Collins 1
Independent N/A 19
Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl 1
Incumbent Taoiseach
Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil

The next Irish general election to Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, the Oireachtas, will be held on or before Thursday 20 February 2025, to elect 160 TDs across 39 constituencies.

As the 2020 general election resulted in a situation whereby government formation required the participation of a minimum three political groups (or two political groups plus a number of independents), the possibility of a snap election being held before the end of the five-year term of the Dáil remains high.

No Taoiseach with a mandate to form a government was nominated by the Dáil when it first met on 20 February. Leo Varadkar resigned as Taoiseach, but continued to carry out the duties pending the appointment of his successor.[1] Negotiations continued, and concluded on 27 June 2020 with the election of Micheál Martin as Taoiseach in a three-way coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Electoral system[edit]

The 160 members of the Dáil will be elected in 39 multi-member constituencies, each with between three and five seats, using the single transferable vote system in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers. When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one.

Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[2] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.

The outgoing Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically unless they announce to the Dáil that they wish to retire as a TD.[3]

Constituency Boundaries are automatically revised every 5 years after publication of census data from censii normally held in the 1st and 6th year of a decade. In the normal course of events this would result in a revision of constituency boundaries the following year, 2022 in this case. Owing to a one year delay in holding census 2021 there will be no change to constituency boundaries or seats before mid 2023. [4]

Latest possible date[edit]

The next general election cannot be held later than Thursday 20 February 2025. This date derives from the Electoral Act, 1992: Section 33, which states that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.[5]

Opinion polls[edit]

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Last date
of polling
Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size
SF FF FG GP Lab SD S–PBP Aon O/I[nb 1]
23 February 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 1] 1,200 28 14 30 6 3 3 1 1 14
12 February 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 2] 1,068 28 15 26 5 5 6 3 4 9
28 January 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 3][p 4] 1,000 27 16 29 5 3 5 3 2 10
17 January 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 5] 1,247 29 15 28 3 5 5 3 4 7
15 December 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 6] 916 32 22 27 3 5 1 2 0 7
29 November 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 7] 1,044 28 17 28 4 4 5 2 4 9
25 November 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 8] 1,000 30 12 33 5 3 4 3 2 8
24 October 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 9][p 10] 1,000 27 11 37 6 3 3 2 2 9
17 October 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 11] 931 30 19 31 5 4 2 2 1 5
6 October 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 12] 1,200 29 17 35 4 4 2 1 [nb 2] 8
26 September 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 13] 1,200 28 14 32 4 4 5 3 3 7
15 September 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 14] 900 32 19 30 5 3 1 1 0 9
9 September 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 15] 1,000 27 10 35 6 3 4 2 2 10
22 August 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 16] 1000 30 11 35 3 5 5 2 2 7
28 July 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 17] 921 30 20 29 6 3 1 1 0 11
18 July 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 18] 1,000 26 12 38 5 4 3 2 [nb 2] 10
20 June 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 19] 1,000 27 13 34 8 4 3 2 [nb 2] 10
14 June 2020 Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times[p 20] 1,200 25 13 37 12 2 [nb 3] [nb 3] [nb 3] 10[nb 3]
27 May 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 21][p 22] 1,000 27 15 35 5 3 4 2 1 8
23 May 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 23] 1,012 27 16 36 6 4 3 2 [nb 2] 6
29 April 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 24][p 25] 1,019 27 14 35 7 3 3 2 1 8
25 March 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 26][p 27] 1,062 28 18 34 5 3 3 2 2 5
10 March 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 28][p 29] 912 35 19 21 6 3 1 3 0 11
25 February 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 30][p 31] 917 35 20 18 6 3 2 3 1 12
16 February 2020 Amárach Research/Extra.ie[p 32][p 33] 1,040 35 17 18 9 3 5 3 [nb 2] 10
8 February 2020 General election 24.5 22.2 20.9 7.1 4.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 13.9

Opinion poll footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. ^ a b c d e Not specifically mentioned in the report.
  3. ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of S–PBP, Aontú and the SocDems.

Opinion poll sources[edit]

  1. ^ Leahy, Pat (24 February 2021). "Fall in support for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael as confidence in Covid-19 management slumps – poll". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 16 February 2021.
  2. ^ Hosford, Paul (14 February 2021). "Sinn Féin leads in new poll despite slippage". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 16 February 2021.
  3. ^ "Fianna Fáil and Social Democrats make gains in latest Business Post/Red C poll". Business Post. Retrieved 30 January 2021.
  4. ^ "Business Post/Red C Poll". Twitter. Retrieved 30 January 2021.
  5. ^ "Next Irish General Election". Twitter. Retrieved 16 January 2021.
  6. ^ Moloney, Marita (20 December 2020). "Sinn Féin has overtaken Fine Gael to become the most popular political party in the country". Retrieved 20 December 2020.
  7. ^ "Next Irish General Election". Twitter. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
  8. ^ "Boost for Sinn Féin in latest poll but Fine Gael remains most popular party". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
  9. ^ "Budget earns Fiana Fáil 'baby bounce' of just 1% in latest poll". Business Post. Retrieved 25 October 2020.
  10. ^ "Red C Research". Twitter. Retrieved 25 October 2020.
  11. ^ O'Brien, Stephen. "Steady support locked down for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and government in poll". ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
  12. ^ Editor, Pat Leahy. "Fall in support for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael as confidence in Covid-19 management slumps – poll". The Irish Times. Retrieved 24 February 2021.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  13. ^ Grennan, Dan (27 September 2020). "New poll finally shows surge in support for Taoiseach as Sinn Fein start to drop off". extra.ie. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  14. ^ Cunningham, Paul (19 September 2020). "Slight rise in support for Sinn Féin and Fine Gael". RTÉ.
  15. ^ "Poll: Fianna Fáil fades in office as Fine Gael holds strong". Business Post. Retrieved 13 September 2020.
  16. ^ "Fine Gael remains most popular party as support for Sinn Féin surges in new opinion poll". Galway Daily. 23 August 2020. Retrieved 24 August 2020.
  17. ^ https://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.202038-Sunday-Times-July-2020-Report.pdf
  18. ^ McDermott, Stephen (19 July 2020). "Fine Gael's popularity continues to rise as support for coalition partners falls". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 19 July 2020.
  19. ^ "Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Mail on Sunday, 19–20 June 2020". filipvanlaenen.github.io. 15 June 2020. Retrieved 8 August 2020.
  20. ^ Leahy, Pat. "Irish Times poll: Almost half of Green voters support proposed coalition government". The Irish Times. Retrieved 16 June 2020.
  21. ^ Beresford, Jack (31 May 2020). "New opinion poll shows support for Fine Gael remains high during Covid-19 pandemic". Irish Post. Retrieved 31 May 2020.
  22. ^ Colwell, Richard. "General Election Opinion Poll May 2020" (PDF). RedC/Business Post. Retrieved 7 June 2020.
  23. ^ Drennan, John (24 May 2020). "Latest poll shows support for Fianna Fail has dropped with one winner". Extra.ie. Retrieved 24 May 2020.
  24. ^ Lee, John (3 May 2020). "Fine Gael pull streets ahead of Sinn Fein in latest poll sparking rumours of new election". Extra.ie. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  25. ^ "General Election Poll, May 2020" (PDF). 3 May 2020. Retrieved 10 May 2020.
  26. ^ McCrave, Conor (29 March 2020). "Coronavirus measures bring surge in public support for Fine Gael, new opinion poll suggests". The Journal. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
  27. ^ "Post-Election & Covid-19 Opinion Poll March 2020" (PDF). Red C. 31 March 2020. Retrieved 2 April 2020.
  28. ^ Cunningham, Paul (14 March 2020). "Opinion poll suggests increase in support for Fine Gael". RTÉ. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
  29. ^ McShane, Ian (14 March 2020). "Sunday Times March 2020 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
  30. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (1 March 2020). "Opinion poll suggests increase in Sinn Féin support". RTÉ. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
  31. ^ McShane, Ian (2 March 2020). "Sunday Times February 2020 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
  32. ^ Grennan, Dan (19 February 2020). "Sinn Fein popularity would rise to 35% in event of a second election — Extra.ie Poll". Extra.ie. Retrieved 2 March 2020.
  33. ^ "Ireland, Amárach Research poll". @EuropeElects. 20 February 2020. Retrieved 2 March 2020.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Carroll, Rory (20 February 2020). "Varadkar resigns as Irish government enters stalemate". The Guardian. Retrieved 20 February 2020.
  2. ^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
  3. ^ "Electoral Act 1992, Section 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 16 June 2020.
  4. ^ "Census 2021 postponed until 2022 due to Covid-19". RTÉ. 15 September 1992. Retrieved 24 September 2020.
  5. ^ "Electoral Act, 1992; Part VI. Duration and Membership of Dáil". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 13 March 2016.