Next Irish general election

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Next Irish general election
Republic of Ireland
← 2020 On or before 20 February 2025

168–178 of 169–179 seats (exact number TBC) in Dáil Éireann
85–90 (TBC) seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 36
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 36
Fine Gael Leo Varadkar 34
Green Eamon Ryan 12
Labour Ivana Bacik 7
Social Democrats Catherine Murphy &
Róisín Shortall
6
PBP/Solidarity Collective leadership 5
Aontú Peadar Tóibín 1
RTOC Joan Collins 1
Independent N/A 21
Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl 1
Incumbent Taoiseach
Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil

The next Irish general election to Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, the Oireachtas, will be held on or before Thursday 20 February 2025, to elect between 169 and 179 TDs across 39 constituencies (though the number of constituencies may change before the election).

No Taoiseach with a mandate to form a government was nominated by the Dáil when it first met on 20 February 2020. Leo Varadkar resigned as Taoiseach, but continued to carry out the duties pending the appointment of his successor.[1] Negotiations concluded on 27 June 2020 with the election of Micheál Martin as Taoiseach in a three-way coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party.

As the 2020 general election resulted in a situation whereby government formation required the participation of a minimum three political groups (or two political groups plus a number of independents), there is a possibility of a snap election being called before the end of the five-year term of the Dáil.

Electoral system[edit]

On 13 April 2022, the Irish Government approved a proposed amendment to section 56(2)(a) the Electoral Reform Bill 2022 (No 37 of 2022), which (as of May 2022) is currently before the Houses of the Oireachtas.[2] This amendment will empower the forthcoming electoral commission to set the number of members to be elected to the 34th Dáil to be between 169 and 179. This range reflects the growth in the population of the state,[3] and the requirement of Article 16.6.2 of the Constitution of Ireland that there be one TD elected for no less than every 20,000 of the population and no more than every 30,000. The exact size of the next Dáil will be based on the constituency review carried out following the preliminary results of the 2022 census of the Irish population. Constituency boundaries are revised every five years, after publication of data from the preceding census. Owing to a one year delay in holding census 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there will be no change to constituency boundaries or seats before mid 2023.[4]

A Dáil with between 169 and 179 members would be the largest number ever returned in the history of the State. Under current rules, TDs would be elected from 39 multi-seat constituencies. However, the number of constituencies may change, depending on the outcome of the constituency review. Each constituency will return between three and five TDs, using the single transferable vote system, in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers.

When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one. Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[5] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.

The outgoing Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically unless they announce to the Dáil that they wish to retire as a TD.[6]

Latest possible date[edit]

The current Dáil must be dissolved no later than Wednesday 19 February 2025. This date derives from the Electoral Act 1992, Section 33, which states that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.[7] The writ for the election must be moved on dissolution of the Dáil.[8] The election must take place on a day 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day) after the writs have been moved.[9][10]

Retiring incumbents[edit]

The following members of the 33rd Dáil are not seeking re-election:

Constituency Departing TD Party First elected Date confirmed
Donegal Joe McHugh Fine Gael 2007 4 May 2022[11][12]

Opinion polls[edit]

In the run-up to the election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than 20 February 2025.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Last date
of polling
Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size
SF FF FG GP Lab SD PBP/S Aon O/I[nb 1]
?? May 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 1] ? 36 19 24 2 5 2 2 1 9
7 May 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 2] 1,002 34 16 23 3 4 4 4 3 8
27 April 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 3] 1,014 34 16 21 4 4 5 3 2 11
1 April 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 4] 1,135 33 18 22 3 4 6 2 3 10
23 March 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 5] 1,001 33 16 19 5 5 5 3 2 12
8 March 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 6] 928 33 23 24 4 3 1 2 1 9
4 March 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 7] 1,011 31 20 21 4 3 6 4 2 9
23 February 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 8] 1,001 33 17 20 5 4 4 3 2 11
8 February 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 9] 922 34 25 20 5 4 2 1 0 9
5 February 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 10] 1,086 32 17 23 4 3 5 3 3 10
26 January 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 11] 1,001 33 15 21 6 4 5 2 2 12
18 January 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 12] ? 34 24 22 3 4 1 2 0 10
8 January 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 13] 1,369 33 19 23 3 4 4 3 2 9
12 December 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 14] ? 31 17 25 4 4 3 4 3 9
8 December 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 15] 933 34 23 20 5 5 2 1 0 9
8 December 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 16][p 17] 1,200 35 20 20 5 4 2 2 1 10
25 November 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 18] 1,001 33 15 22 5 4 5 2 2 10
14 November 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 19] ? 32 17 24 5 5 4 3 3 7
9 November 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 20] 912 37 20 21 5 3 3 1 1 8
22 October 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 21] ? 33 12 25 4 5 6 3 2 10
16 October 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 22] 1,200 31 16 26 6 4 4 3 3 [nb 2]
12 October 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 23] 943 31 23 21 5 5 4 1 1 8
5 October 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 24][p 25] 1,200 32 20 22 7 4 3 2 1 10
18 September 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 26] 1,000 29 19 23 4 4 6 4 4 [nb 2]
9 September 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 27] 1,031 29 13 28 4 5 5 3 2 10
8 September 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 28] 922 33 21 23 5 5 2 2 0 8
21 August 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 29] 1,203 30 15 24 4 6 6 3 3 9
17 July 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 30] 1,001 30 14 25 4 7 5 4 4 7
13 July 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 31] 894 30 20 25 5 5 1 3 1 10
26 June 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 32] 1,020 29 13 30 5 3 4 2 2 12
19 June 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 33] 1,274 32 15 24 3 4 5 4 4 10
15 June 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 34] 1,200 31 20 27 6 3 2 2 1 8
8 June 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 35] 909 34 20 24 4 3 4 1 1 9
27 May 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 36][p 37] 1,034 29 14 29 5 3 5 3 2 10
18 May 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 38] 914 30 22 28 5 4 2 1 [nb 2] 8
15 May 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 39] 1,237 30 15 25 3 4 7 3 4 9
22 April 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 40] 1,025 27 13 30 4 5 5 2 2 11
15 April 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 41] 1,087 27 16 26 3 5 6 3 4 10
25 March 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 42] 1,000 29 11 30 5 4 5 2 2 11
20 March 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 43] 1,026 31 14 27 2 5 7 3 3 8
25 February 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 44][p 45] 1,000 29 13 29 3 4 6 2 2 12
23 February 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 46] 1,200 28 14 30 6 3 3 1 1 14
12 February 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 47] 1,068 28 15 26 5 5 6 3 4 9
28 January 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 48][p 49] 1,000 27 16 29 5 3 5 3 2 10
17 January 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 50] 1,247 29 15 28 3 5 5 3 4 7
15 December 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 51] 916 32 22 27 3 5 1 2 0 7
29 November 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 52] 1,044 28 17 28 4 4 5 2 4 9
25 November 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 53] 1,000 30 12 33 5 3 4 3 2 8
24 October 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 54][p 55] 1,000 27 11 37 6 3 3 2 2 9
17 October 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 56] 931 30 19 31 5 4 2 2 1 5
6 October 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 57] 1,200 29 17 35 4 4 2 1 [nb 2] 8
26 September 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 58] 1,200 28 14 32 4 4 5 3 3 7
15 September 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 59] 900 32 19 30 5 3 1 1 0 9
9 September 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 60] 1,000 27 10 35 6 3 4 2 2 10
22 August 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 61] 1,000 30 11 35 3 5 5 2 2 7
28 July 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 62] 921 30 20 29 6 3 1 1 0 11
18 July 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 63] 1,000 26 12 38 5 4 3 2 [nb 2] 10
20 June 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 64] 1,000 27 13 34 8 4 3 2 [nb 2] 10
14 June 2020 Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times[p 65] 1,200 25 13 37 12 2 [nb 3] [nb 3] [nb 3] 10[nb 3]
27 May 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 66][p 67] 1,000 27 15 35 5 3 4 2 1 8
23 May 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 68] 1,012 27 16 36 6 4 3 2 [nb 2] 6
29 April 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 69][p 70] 1,019 27 14 35 7 3 3 2 1 8
25 March 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 71][p 72] 1,062 28 18 34 5 3 3 2 2 5
10 March 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 73][p 74] 912 35 19 21 6 3 1 3 0 11
25 February 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 75][p 76] 917 35 20 18 6 3 2 3 1 12
16 February 2020 Amárach Research/Extra.ie[p 77][p 78] 1,040 35 17 18 9 3 5 3 [nb 2] 10
8 February 2020 General election 24.5 22.2 20.9 7.1 4.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 13.9

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Not specifically mentioned in the report.
  3. ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP/S, Aontú and the SocDems.

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