Next Italian general election

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Next Italian general election
Italy
← 2018 No later than 1 June 2023[a]

All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
and 200 seats in the Senate of the Republic
Party Leader Current seats
Chamber of Deputies
Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 159
League Matteo Salvini 133
Democratic Party Enrico Letta 95
Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi 77
Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 37
Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 26
Coraggio Italia Luigi Brugnaro 24
Article One Roberto Speranza 6
Green Europe Angelo Bonelli, Eleonora Evi 5
Action Carlo Calenda 2
Italian Left Nicola Fratoianni 1
More Europe Benedetto Della Vedova 1
Senate of the Republic
Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 74
League Matteo Salvini 64
Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi 47
Democratic Party Enrico Letta 39
Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 21
Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 16
Coraggio Italia Luigi Brugnaro 7
Article One Roberto Speranza 1
Green Europe Angelo Bonelli, Eleonora Evi 0
Action Carlo Calenda 1
Italian Left Nicola Fratoianni 1
More Europe Benedetto Della Vedova 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Mario Draghi
Independent

The next Italian general election is due to be held in Italy no later than 1 June 2023.[a]

As a result of the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the number of MPs will be reduced in this election. Under the amended Constitution, there will be 400 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 200 elected members of the Senate of the Republic, down from 630 and 315, respectively.

Background[edit]

In the 2018 Italian general election, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.[1] On 4 March, the centre-right alliance, in which Matteo Salvini's League emerged as the main political force, won a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes. The centre-left coalition, led by Matteo Renzi, came third.[2] As a result, protracted negotiations were required before a new government could be formed.

First Conte Government[edit]

The talks between the M5S and the League resulted in the proposal of the so-called "government of change" under the leadership of university professor Giuseppe Conte, a law professor close to the M5S.[3] After some bickering with President Sergio Mattarella,[4][5] Conte's cabinet, which was dubbed by the media as Western European "first all-populist government", was sworn in on 1 June.[6]

In August 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced a motion of no confidence against Conte, after growing tensions within the majority.[7][8] Many political analysts believe the no confidence motion was an attempt to force early elections to improve Lega's standing in Parliament, ensuring Salvini could become the next Prime Minister.[9] On 20 August, following the parliamentary debate in which Conte harshly accused Salvini of being a political opportunist who "had triggered the political crisis only to serve his personal interest",[10] the Prime Minister resigned his post to President Sergio Mattarella.[11]

Second Conte Government[edit]

On 21 August, Mattarella started the consultations with all the parliamentary groups. On the same day, the national direction of the Democratic Party (PD) officially opened to a cabinet with the M5S,[10] based on pro-Europeanism, a green economy, sustainable development, the fight against economic inequality and a new immigration policy.[12] However, the talks with President Mattarella resulted in an unclear outcome; thus, Mattarella announced a second round of consultation for 27 or 28 August.[13]

Conte during the 2020 Republic Day, wearing a protection mask amid the COVID-19 pandemic which deeply affected Italy

In the days that preceded the second round, a confrontation between the PD and M5S started,[14] while the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) announced that they would support a potential M5S–PD cabinet.[15] On 28 August, the leader of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, announced at the Quirinal Palace his favorable position on forming a new government with the Five Stars with Giuseppe Conte at its head.[16] On same day, Mattarella summoned Conte to the Quirinal Palace for the 29 August to give him the task of forming a new cabinet.[17] On 3 September, the members of the M5S voted on the so-called "Rousseau Platform" in favor of an agreement with the Democrats, under the premiership of Giuseppe Conte, with more than 79% of votes out of nearly 80,000 voters.[18] On 4 September, Conte announced the ministers of his new cabinet, which was sworn in at the Quirinal Palace on the following day.[19]

In 2020, Italy became one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Conte's government was the first in the Western world to implement a national lockdown to stop the spread of the disease.[20][21] Despite being widely approved by public opinion, the lockdown was also described as the largest suppression of constitutional rights in the history of the Italian Republic.[22]

Moreover under Conte's governments, the Italian Parliament approved the so-called "Fraccaro Reform", from the name of the M5S deputy who was the bill's first signatory.[23] The reform was finally approved by the Parliament, with the fourth and final vote in the Chamber of Deputies on 8 October 2019 with 553 votes in favor and 14 against. In the final vote, the bill was supported both by the majority and the opposition;[24] only the liberal party More Europe (+Eu) and other small groups voted against.[25] The reform provided a cut in the number of MPs, which would shrink from 630 to 400 deputies and from 315 to 200 senators.[26] On 20 and 21 September 2020, Italians largely approved the reform with nearly 70% of votes.[27]

Draghi Government[edit]

In January 2021, Renzi's Italia Viva withdrew its support for Conte's government.[28] Although Conte was able to win confidence votes in the Parliament in the subsequent days, he chose to resign due to failing to reach an absolute majority in the Senate.[29] After negotiations to form a Conte's third cabinet failed, the former President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, formed a national unity government, composed by independent technocrats and politicians from M5S, Lega, FI, PD, IV and LeU.[30]

In March 2021, the Secretary of the PD Zingaretti resigned after growing tensions within the PD, with the party's minority accusing him for the management of the government crisis.[31] Many prominent members of the party asked to former Prime Minister Enrico Letta to become the new leader; after a few days, on 14 March, he was elected as new Secretary by the national assembly.[32][33] In August 2021, former prime minister Giuseppe Conte was elected president of the Five Star Movement.[34]

Electoral system[edit]

After the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the Italian electoral law of 2017 (Rosatellum), used in 2018 Italian general election, was initially expected to be replaced entirely or its FPTP single-member districts be redesigned on the Italian territory for the next elections with 600 MPs.[35][36] The single-member districts changes were eventually approved and published on 30 December in the Italian government gazette Gazzetta Ufficiale: the Chamber of Deputies went down from 232 to 147 districts, the Senate down from 116 to 74.[37][38]

Date of the election[edit]

According to articles 60 and 61 of the Italian Constitution the election of both Houses of Parliament must take place every five years and no later than seventy days after the end of the previous legislature.[39]

Parties and leaders[edit]

This is a list of the main active parties which would likely participate in the election and are polled in most opinion surveys.

Party Ideology Leader/s Current seats
Deputies Senators Total MPs
Five Star Movement (M5S) Populism Giuseppe Conte
159
74
233
League (Lega) Right-wing populism Matteo Salvini
133
63
196
Democratic Party (PD) Social democracy Enrico Letta
95
39
134
Forza Italia (FI) Liberal conservatism Silvio Berlusconi
76
47
123
Brothers of Italy (FdI) National conservatism Giorgia Meloni
37
21
58
Italia Viva (IV) Liberalism Matteo Renzi
27
15
42
Coraggio Italia (CI) Liberal conservatism Luigi Brugnaro
24
7
31
Article One (Art.1) Social democracy Roberto Speranza
8
1
9
Green Europe (EV) Green politics Angelo Bonelli, Eleonora Evi
5
0
5
Action (Az) Social liberalism Carlo Calenda
2
1
3
Italian Left (SI) Democratic socialism Nicola Fratoianni
1
1
2
More Europe (+Eu) Liberalism Benedetto Della Vedova
1
1
2

Opinion polls[edit]

Local regression trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b While elections in Italy are usually held on a Sunday or Sunday and Monday, there is no constitutional provision to do so; therefore, the latest possibile date for a general election is always the 70th day after the expiration of the previous Parliament's five-year term.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Sala, Alessandro (2018). "Elezioni 2018: M5S primo partito, nel centrodestra la Lega supera FI".
  2. ^ "Elezioni politiche: vincono M5s e Lega. Crollo del Partito democratico. Centrodestra prima coalizione. Il Carroccio sorpassa Forza Italia". 4 March 2018.
  3. ^ "Conte says to be Italians' defence lawyer in govt of change" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  4. ^ "Mattarella meets Conte, 'vetoed' Savona" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  5. ^ "Conte drops govt bid" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  6. ^ "Governo Conte, la lista di tutti i ministri: Salvini all’Interno e Di Maio al Welfare. Saranno vicepremier" Archived 1 June 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
  7. ^ "La Lega presenta al Senato una mozione di sfiducia a Conte. M5S attacca Salvini: "Giullare"". rainews.
  8. ^ "Il Senato ha bocciato la mozione del M5S sulla TAV". Il Post (in Italian). 7 August 2019. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
  9. ^ Squires, Nick (August 9, 2019). "Italy's League files no confidence motion in prime minister in bid to trigger election". The Telegraph – via www.telegraph.co.uk.
  10. ^ a b Giuffrida, Angela (August 20, 2019). "Italian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' Salvini". The Guardian – via www.theguardian.com.
  11. ^ Horowitz, Jason (August 20, 2019). "Italy's Government Collapses, Turning Chaos Into Crisis". The New York Times.
  12. ^ "Governo, Zingaretti: "I 5 punti per trattare con il M5S. No accordicchi, governo di svolta"". Repubblica.it. August 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "Crisi di governo, secondo giro di consultazioni al Colle". Tgcom24. Archived from the original on 2019-08-27. Retrieved 2019-09-04.
  14. ^ "Ecco l'accordo sul Conte bis: Zingaretti dà il via libera, nodo su ministeri e manovra". Fanpage.it (in Italian). Retrieved 2021-01-31.
  15. ^ "Grasso, possibile intesa M5s-Pd-Leu - Ultima Ora". Agenzia ANSA. August 19, 2019.
  16. ^ "Italy's Conte might be back at helm with Salvini shut out". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2019-08-28.
  17. ^ "C'è l'accordo tra M5s e Pd. Governo giallorosso ai nastri di partenza". Agi (in Italian). Retrieved 2021-01-31.
  18. ^ "Governo, via libera di Rousseau all'intesa M5s-Pd con il 79% dei voti. Conte domattina al Quirinale". Repubblica.it. September 3, 2019.
  19. ^ "Italy swears in new coalition government | DW | 05.09.2019". Deutsche Welle. 5 September 2019. Retrieved 1 October 2019.
  20. ^ "All of Italy to be placed on coronavirus lockdown". BBC News. 9 March 2020. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  21. ^ "Italy, the first country in Europe to enter lockdown, starts to emerge". The Economist. Retrieved 2 September 2020.
  22. ^ Così le norme contro il virus possono rievocare il «dictator», Avvenire
  23. ^ "La Camera approva la riforma Fraccaro. Via al taglio dei parlamentari - TGR Trento". TGR. Archived from the original on 24 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  24. ^ Sciorilli Borrelli, Silvia (8 October 2019). "Italian lawmakers want fewer Italian lawmakers". POLITICO. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  25. ^ "Taglio dei parlamentari, Orfini: "La riforma fa schifo". Chi sono i contrari". it.notizie.yahoo.com. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  26. ^ "Italy shrinks parliament 'to save €1bn'". BBC News. 8 October 2019. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
  27. ^ Elezioni e Referendum 2020, risultati in diretta: vince il Sì con il 69%. Toscana e la Puglia restano a sinistra: vittorie di Giani ed Emiliano. Marche a destra. Plebisciti per Zaia e De Luca, Toti si tiene la Liguria, Il Fatto Quotidiano
  28. ^ Crisi di governo, Renzi ritira le ministre Bonetti e Bellanova. Conte: “Grave responsabilità di Italia viva, danno al Paese. Mai sottratto al confronto ma terreno era minato”, Il Fatto Quotidiano
  29. ^ Conte si dimette e tenta il ter (senza chiudere la porta a Renzi), Il Sole 24 Ore
  30. ^ Mario Draghi giura al Quirinale con tre minuti di anticipo, Huffington Post
  31. ^ Pd, Zingaretti si dimette. Dice addio il decimo segretario in 14 anni, Il Sole 24 Ore
  32. ^ Letta, il giorno della scelta. Zingaretti: rilancerà il Pd, il manifesto
  33. ^ Letta: "Non vi serve un nuovo segretario, ma un nuovo Pd", Huffington Post
  34. ^ adminm5s (2021-08-06). "Giuseppe Conte eletto Presidente del MoVimento 5 Stelle". Movimento 5 Stelle (in Italian). Retrieved 2021-08-06.
  35. ^ "La nuova legge elettorale, il testo base è in commissione" [New electoral law, the text entered evaluation]. Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (in Italian). 7 September 2020. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  36. ^ "Taglio dei parlamentari: perché serve anche una nuova legge elettorale" [MPs cut: why a new electoral law is needed]. Corriere della Sera (in Italian). 23 August 2019. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  37. ^ "Simulazione YouTrend: se si votasse oggi con i nuovi collegi del Rosatellum?" [YouTrend simulation: what if we would vote today with the new Rosatellum districts?]. YouTrend (in Italian). 11 January 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  38. ^ "Riduzione dei parlamentari, pubblicati in Gazzetta i nuovi collegi di Camera e Senato" [MPs reduction, new districts of Chamber and Senate published in the Gazzetta]. Centropagina.it (in Italian). 30 December 2020. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  39. ^ "Constitution of the Italian Republic" (PDF). senato.it. Senate of the Republic. Retrieved 14 November 2019.