Next Japanese general election

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48th Japanese general election
Japan
2014 ←
on or before 13 December 2018

All 475 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan:
295 first-past-the-post in single-member districts, 180 by d'Hondt proportional in 11 regional blocs
  First party Second party Third party
  Shinzō Abe April 2015.jpg Minister Okada.jpg Natsuo Yamaguchi-1.jpg
Leader Shinzō Abe Katsuya Okada Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party Liberal Democratic Democratic Komeito
Leader since 26 September 2012 27 March 2016 8 September 2009
Leader's seat Yamaguchi-4th Mie-3rd not contesting (Coun.)
Last election 291 seats
48.1% (district)
33.11% (block)
New 35 seats
1.5% (district)
13.71% (block)
Seats before 290 seats 96 seats 35 seats

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Kazuo Shii cropped.jpg Ichiro Matsui Ishin IMG 5775 20130713.JPG PLP
Leader Kazuo Shii Ichirō Matsui Ichirō Ozawa
Taro Yamamoto
Party Communist Initiatives People's Life
Leader since 24 November 2000 2 November 2015 21 December 2015
Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR not contesting
(Gov. of Osaka)
Iwate-4th
not contesting (Coun.)
Last election 21 seats
13.3% (district)
11.37% (block)
New 2 seats
0.97% (district)
1.93% (block)
Seats before 21 seats 14 seats 2 seats

  Seventh party
  SDP
Leader Tadatomo Yoshida
Party Social Democratic
Leader since 26 October 2013
Leader's seat not contesting (Coun.)
Last election 2 seats
0.79% (district)
2.46% (block)
Seats before 2 seats

Japan Districts of the House of Representatives map font.png

Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks

Prime Minister before election

Shinzō Abe
Liberal Democratic

Prime Minister-designate

TBD

Imperial Seal of Japan.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Japan

The 48th general election of members of the House of Representatives (第48回衆議院議員総選挙 dai-yonjūhachikai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo?) is due to take place on or before 13 December 2018, a barring by Constitution of Japan. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan – 295 single-member districts and eleven proportional blocks –, in order to appoint all 475 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the prime minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed).

Date of the election[edit]

Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.

The only time in postwar history that the House of Representatives was not dissolved before the end of its term was in 1976. If the House of Representatives completes a full four-year term, the election must be held within 30 days before that. Under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, the election could take place somewhat beyond the actual end of term under the "public offices election act" (kōshokusenkyohō).[1]

As of June 2015, the Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election is held alongside the scheduled House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016.[2]

Polling[edit]

Parties' approval ratings since last GE
Date Polling Firm/Source LDP DPJ JIP K JPC PJK SDP PLP IO VoR AEJ Oth. No
party
Und.
4-6 Mar Yomiuri Shimbun 37.0 8.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 43.0 2.0
12-14 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun 42.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 40.0 3.0
5-7 Feb NHK 37.6 9.6 0.8 3.6 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.1 35.1 7.4
30-31 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun 40.0 7.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 39.0 3.0
9-11 Jan NHK 37.5 8.1 0.3 4.3 4.2 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 33.1 9.4
8-10 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun 40.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 37.0 4.0
2016
17-18 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun 37.0 9.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 39.0 0.0
11-13 Dec NHK 37.5 8.5 0.5 4.7 5.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.8 0.2 34.3 7.0
4-6 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun 36.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 43.0 2.0
6-8 Nov Yomiuri Shimbun 40.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 39.0 2.0
6-8 Nov NHK 37.1 8.4 0.5 3.4 4.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.1 36.3 8.2
10-12 Oct NHK 35.6 8.6 0.7 3.3 4.2 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 35.7 10.3
7-8 Oct Yomiuri Shimbun 39.0 10.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 1.0
19-20 Sep Yomiuri Shimbun 33.0 11.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 3.0
11–13 Sep NHK 34.7 9.8 1.3 3.7 4.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.6 36.2 9.0
15-16 Aug Yomiuri Shimbun 37.0 10.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 3.0
7–9 Aug NHK 34.3 10.9 2.5 3.0 4.2 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 34.5 9.6
24-26 Jul Yomiuri Shimbun 36.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.0 3.0
18–19 Jul Asahi Shimbun 31.0 9.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 41.0 7.0
11–12 Jul Asahi Shimbun 32.0 8.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0 10.0
10–12 Jul NHK 34.7 7.7 2.5 4.2 3.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 36.8 9.5
3-5 Jul Yomiuri Shimbun 35.0 9.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 44.0 1.0
20–21 Jun Asahi Shimbun 36.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 41.0 7.0
5-7 Jun Yomiuri Shimbun 38.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 2.0
5–7 Jun NHK 35.8 9.4 2.6 3.6 4.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 33.9 9.3
16–17 May Asahi Shimbun 39.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 33.0 10.0
8-10 May Yomiuri Shimbun 43.0 10.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 2.0
8–10 May NHK 37.5 7.8 2.0 5.3 3.5 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 34.7 8.4
18–19 Apr Asahi Shimbun 36.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 10.0
10–12 Apr NHK 37.8 9.2 3.6 4.1 4.8 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.3 29.2 9.9
3-5 Apr Yomiuri Shimbun 41.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 1.0
14–15 Mar Asahi Shimbun 38.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 37.0 8.0
6–8 Mar NHK 36.7 10.9 2.0 3.8 4.6 0.0 1.6 0.3 0.3 31.8 8.1
28 Jan-28 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun 43.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 30.0 1.0
14–15 Feb Asahi Shimbun 40.0 7.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 35.0 7.0
6–8 Feb NHK 41.2 10.3 2.2 4.9 4.2 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 29.7 6.5
6-7 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun 42.0 11.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 1.0
17–18 Jan Asahi Shimbun 33.0 9.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 38.0 7.0
10–12 Jan NHK 39.4 9.2 2.7 4.0 3.7 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 31.9 7.7
9-11 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun 41.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 38.0 1.0
2015
24-25 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun 36.0 11.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 32.0 3.0
15–16 Dec Asahi Shimbun 35.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 33.0 12.0
14 Dec 2014 General Election 33.1 18.3 15.7 13.7 11.4 2.7 2.5 1.9 N/A N/A N/A 0.7 N/A N/A
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
Date Polling Firm/Source PM Approval Disapproval No Opinion
4-6 Mar Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 49% 40% 11%
12-14 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 52% 36% 12%
5-7 Feb NHK Shinzo Abe 50% 34% 16%
30-31 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 56% 34% 9%
9-11 Jan NHK Shinzo Abe 46% 35% 19%
8-10 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 54% 36% 9%
2016
17-18 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 49% 39% 12%
11-13 Dec NHK Shinzo Abe 46% 36% 18%
4-6 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 48% 40% 12%
6-8 Nov Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 51% 38% 11%
6-8 Nov NHK Shinzo Abe 47% 39% 14%
10-12 Oct NHK Shinzo Abe 43% 40% 17%
7-8 Oct Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 46% 45% 8%
19-20 Sep Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 41% 51% 8%
11–13 Sep NHK Shinzo Abe 43% 39% 18%
15-16 Aug Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 45% 45% 10%
7–9 Aug NHK Shinzo Abe 37% 46% 17%
24-26 Jul Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 43% 49% 8%
18–19 Jul Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 37% 46% 17%
11–12 Jun Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 39% 42% 19%
10–12 Jul NHK Shinzo Abe 41% 43% 16%
3-5 Jul Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 49% 40% 10%
20–21 Jun Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 39% 37% 24%
5-7 Jun Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 53% 36% 10%
5–7 Jun NHK Shinzo Abe 48% 34% 18%
16–17 May Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 45% 32% 23%
8-10 May Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 58% 32% 10%
8–10 May NHK Shinzo Abe 51% 32% 17%
18–19 Apr Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 44% 35% 21%
10–12 Apr NHK Shinzo Abe 51% 34% 15%
3-5 Apr Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 57% 35% 8%
14–15 Mar Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 46% 33% 21%
6–8 Mar NHK Shinzo Abe 46% 37% 17%
28 Jan-28 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 56% 36% 8%
14–15 Feb Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 50% 31% 19%
6–8 Feb NHK Shinzo Abe 54% 29% 17%
6-7 Feb Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 58% 34% 8%
17–18 Jan Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 42% 37% 21%
10–12 Jan NHK Shinzo Abe 50% 32% 18%
9-11 Jan Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 53% 38% 9%
2015
24-25 Dec Yomiuri Shimbun Shinzo Abe 49% 41% 10%
15–16 Dec Asahi Shimbun Shinzo Abe 43% 34% 23%
5–7 Dec NHK Shinzo Abe 47% 38% 15%
2014

References[edit]

  1. ^ MIC/e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)
  2. ^ "民主、衆参同日選も想定 年内に候補者170人擁立めざす". Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 6 June 2015. Retrieved 8 June 2015.