Latvian parliamentary election, 2018

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Latvian parliamentary election, 2018

← 2014 6 October 2018

All 100 seats in the Saeima
51 seats are needed for a majority

  Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis.jpg Karins, Krisjanis-9702.jpg Flickr - Saeima - 10.Saeimas deputāts Māris Kučinskis.jpg
Candidate Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis Krišjānis Kariņš Māris Kučinskis
Party Harmony Unity ZZS
Last election 24 seats, 23.00% 23 seats, 21.87% 21 seats, 19.74%
Current seats 24 23 21
Seats needed Increase27 Increase28 Increase30

  Roberts Zile - Latvian part press photos- Citizens’ Corner debate on EU citizens and their digital rights (15712487334).jpg Flickr - Saeima - 10.Saeimas deputāts Edvards Smiltēns.jpg Inguna Sudraba foto 2014 05a.jpg
Candidate Roberts Zile Edvards Smiltēns Inguna Sudraba
Party National Alliance LRA NSL
Last election 17 seats, 16.61% 8 seats, 6.66% 7 seats, 6.85%
Current seats 17 7 7
Seats needed Increase34 Increase44 Increase44

Latvia elctoral districts.png
Electoral constituencies used in Latvia

Incumbent Prime Minister

Māris Kučinskis
ZZS



Parliamentary elections will be held in Latvia following the expiry of the current Saeima on 6 October 2018.[1][2]

Background[edit]

The 2014 elections saw Social Democratic Party "Harmony" emerge as the largest party. Although the largest party, Harmony has not participated in the government. A coalition was formed by Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and the National Alliance with Laimdota Straujuma as Prime Minister.[3] On 7 December 2015 she resigned after increasing tensions within the ruling coalition.[4][5][6] Following her resignation and several scandals around the Unity leader Solvita Āboltiņa, opinion polls showed a rapid decrease of support for Unity. On 13 January 2016 Māris Kučinskis of the Union of Greens and Farmers was nominated to be the next Prime Minister by President Raimonds Vējonis.[7] His government was approved by the Saeima on 11 February.

Electoral system[edit]

The 100 members of the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from five multi-member constituencies (Kurzeme, Latgale, Riga (in which overseas votes are counted), Vidzeme and Zemgale) between 13 and 32 seats in size. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method with a national electoral threshold of 5%.[8]

Electoral alliances[edit]

The Movement For! and Latvian Development will contest the election on the Development/For! joint list, formed on 20 April 2018.[9]

The Social Democratic Workers' Party, the Christian Democratic Union and Proud to Serve Our Latvia will contest the elections as the SKG Union (lv) electoral list,[10] the memorandum of which was signed by the leaders of the parties on 28 March 2018.[11][12] The long-standing alliance of the Latvian Farmers' Union and the Green Party still stands.

Unity has formed an association in April 2018 with several regional parties under the New Unity alliance. The involved parties are the Kuldīga County Party, For Valmiera and Vidzeme and For Tukums City and County (lv) parties, joined by the Jēkabpils Regional Party.[13][14] The Latgale Party (lv), after a period of consideration,[15] joined the alliance in July,[16] although its Daugavpils chapter has allied itself with The Progressives.[17] The Progressives and Movement For! declined invitations to join the list.[18]

Disqualifications[edit]

The Central Election Commission of Latvia used its powers to remove eight candidates from submitted lists. It did so after receiving notification from the Interior Ministry that the individuals in question were disqualified from election to the Saeima under the country's election law.[19] The eight candidates were Aivars Zablockis and Nikolajs Žeļezņakovs (Eurosceptic Action Party), Zigfrīds Laicāns and Valdis Taupmanis (For Alternative), Edgars Krūmiņš (Latvian Association of Regions), Katrīna Brandala (The Progressives), Aivars Silinieks (Latvian Centrist Party) and Tatjana Ždanoka (Latvian Russian Union).[20] Ždanoka has been barred in the past as Latvian courts have found that she was a member of the Communist Party of Latvia after 31 January 1991, making her ineligible. The Election Commission additionally sought information from the Security Police and the Constitution Protection Bureau to confirm her ineligibility.[21]

Prime Minister candidates[edit]

Party Candidate
1 Union of Greens and Farmers Māris Kučinskis
2 New Conservative Party Jānis Bordāns[22]
3 New Unity Krišjānis Kariņš[23]
4 KPV LV Aldis Gobzems[24]
5 Latvian Association of Regions Edvards Smiltēns[25]
6 National Alliance Roberts Zīle[26]
7 Harmony Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis[27]
8 Russian Union Andrejs Mamikins[28]
9 Progressives Roberts Putnis[29]
10 Development/For! Artis Pabriks

Leading candidate by constituency[edit]

Party Leader
Rīga Vidzeme Latgale Kurzeme Zemgale
1 Union of Greens and Farmers[30] Dana Reizniece-Ozola Māris Kučinskis Jānis Dūklavs Gundars Daudze Augusts Brigmanis
2 Harmony[31] Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis Pēteris Sproģis Jānis Krišāns Anrijs Matīss Ivars Zariņš
3 National Alliance[32] Dace Melbārde Raivis Dzintars Edmunds Teirumnieks Ilze Indriksone Edvīns Šņore
4 New Unity Edgars Rinkēvičs Inese Lībiņa-Egnere Aldis Adamovičs Arvils Ašeradens Jānis Reirs
5 Russian Union Andrejs Mamikins Andris Tolmačovs Jevgēņija Krjukova Elita Kosaka Ludmila Ušakova
6 Association of Regions Ieva Brante Edvards Smiltēns Juris Viļums Nellija Kleinberga Inga Bite
7 Progressives[33] Antoņina Ņenaševa Inga Liepa-Meiere Agnese Logina Dace Kavasa Līga Rasnača
8 Development/For! Daniels Pavļuts Artis Pabriks Mārtiņš Bondars Juris Pūce Ilze Viņķele
9 New Conservatives[34] Juta Strīķe Jānis Bordāns Ilga Šuplinska Juris Jurašs Krišjānis Feldmanis
10 KPV LV Artuss Kaimiņš Linda Liepiņa Roberts Spručs Atis Zakatistovs Kaspars Ģirģens
11 Latvian Nationalists Andris Rubins Alfrēds Buls Vladislavs Bautris Silvestrs Rubins Kārlis Krūmiņš
12 For Latvia from the Heart Inguna Sudraba Gints Gābers Jānis Valtervitenheims Juris Jaunzems Iveta Čivčiša
13 Eurosceptic Action Party Igors Meļņikovs Jurijs Vasiļjevs Tamāra Meļņikova Andris Perjans Jeļena Pičoha
14 For Alternative Einārs Graudiņš Juris Žuravļovs Jānis Kuzins Igors Glazunovs Artūrs Malta
15 Latvian Centrist Party Andžejs Ždanovičs Vazgens Sorokins Georgijs Sokolovskis Dainis Grabovskis Edvīns Puķe
16 SKG Union Armands Agrums Jānis Dinevičs Daiga Ceipiniece Arvīds Kinstlers Valdis Šakars

Other parties[edit]

  • United for Latvia – on 17 May 2018 party leader Inese Muhamberga announced that the party will not run in the elections.[35]
  • Latvian Socialist Party – has not submitted a separate electoral list, instead urging "Latvian workers" to "vote politically bankrupt politicians out of office".[36] Its alliance with Harmony was dissolved in 2014.

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling firm Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample Size SDPS V ZZS NA LRA NSL LKS VL LA JKP GKL KPV PAR Won't vote Don't know Other Lead
Poll of Polls September 2018 24 7 12 11 3 3 (n/a) (Par) 13 (SKG) 13 9 8 11
FACTUM 31 August – 9 September 2018 1,293 21 9 9 14 4 3 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 9 3 6
Norstat LNT 10 - 14 September 2018 501 13.9 3.3 9 5.4 1.4 1.9 (n/a) (Par) 6.1 (SKG) 7.9 4.7 7 36.2 6.2 4.9
FACTUM 30 August – 5 September 2018 1,947 22 8 9 13 4 2 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 10 4 7
Norstat TV3 Latvija September 2018 14.9 3.3 9 5.7 1.8 (n/a) (Par) 6.9 (SKG) 6.6 4.5 5.4 37.6 4.3 5.9
FACTUM 27 August – 2 September 2018 1,915 24 7 9 12 3 2 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 12 11 5 9
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija August 2018 900 33 7.9 17.8 9.4 4.5 2.7 1.9 (n/a) (Par) 4.4 (SKG) 11.6 4.8 15.2
SKDS Web August 2018 900 24.7 5.8 9.2 10.5 4 2.6 5.2 (n/a) (Par) 7.3 (SKG) 17.7 8.4 7
FACTUM 25–31 August 2018 1,750 23 7 10 12 3 3 (n/a) (Par) 15 (SKG) 13 12 4 8
FACTUM 22–28 August 2018 1,337 22 7 11 12 2 3 (n/a) (Par) 13 (SKG) 15 11 4 7
FACTUM 20–26 August 2018 1,340 21 7 12 12 2 2 (n/a) (Par) 12 (SKG) 17 11 6 4
Poll of Polls August 2018 23 5 14 13 2 0 2 (n/a) (Par) 9 (SKG) 13 10 9 9
FACTUM 13–19 August 2018 1,433 21 6 12 12 4 1 4 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 16 10 4 5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija August 2018 ~900 21.5 5.1 11.5 6.1 2.9 1.8 1.2 (n/a) (Par) 2.9 (SKG) 7.5 3.1 12.0 23.0 10
FACTUM 1–6 August 2018 19 5 11 13 2 1 4 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 16 14 5 3
FACTUM 26 July – 1 August 2018 19 5 12 12 2 1 2 (n/a) (Par) 12 (SKG) 18 12 5 1
FACTUM 17–23 July 2018 1,494 19 5 12 14 4 1 2 (n/a) (Par) 10 (SKG) 14 11 3 5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija July 2018 1,000 21.4 2.9 12.4 6.8 1.1 1.9 0.7 (n/a) (Par) 3.9 (SKG) 7 4.4 9
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija June 2018 1,000 21.0 2.7 14.4 6.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 (n/a) (Par) 4.0 (SKG) 4.4 4.7 13.2 23.7 0.0 6.6
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija May 2018 1,000 19.1 3.7 14.6 7 1.7 1.6 1.3 (n/a) (Par) 2.4 (SKG) 3 3 13.7 27.5 4.5
Norstat TV3 Latvija May 2018 1,000 16.3 6.2 17.1 9.1 3.2 2.1 (n/a) 1.8 6.1 (SKG) 3.5 3.6 1.8 26.7 2.6 0.8
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija April 2018 1,000 23.2 4.9 12.8 8.3 2.8 2.1 3.7 (SKG) 2.4 1.7 12.2 24.7 0.4 10.4
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija March 2018 1,000 20.4 4.9 13.9 6.3 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.7 3.6 1.9 1.2 12.9 30.0 0.4 6.5
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija February 2018 1,000 21.2 4.6 14.5 7.8 2.1 4.1 1.9 13.1 25 20.2 6.7
SKDS Latvijas Televīzija January 2018 1,000 20.4 2.9 15.3 5.8 2.5 1.0 4.1 2.0 1.4 16,5 26 2.1 5.2
December 2017 20.7 3.5 14.3 7.3 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.8 0.9 3.0 1.5 1.5 15.3 25 0.5 6.4
November 2017 19.8 3.8 15.3 7.0 2.4 2.1 3.9 1.6 1.2 14 26 2.9 4.5
October 2017 22.5 3.5 13.1 9.5 3.4 2.2 3.9 1.2 1.2 13.8 23.5 2.2 9.4
September 2017 20.2 4.4 11.7 7.6 2.3 1.4 4.1 2.0 1.9 13.7 29.4 1.2 8.5
August 2017 20.9 3.1 13.1 6.8 4.3 1.6 5.5 0.8 15.9 26.1 1.9 7.8
July 2017 21.2 3.7 13.8 5.8 4.5 2.0 4.2 1.4 17.0 24.1 2.4 7.4
June 2017 22.3 4.0 14.5 5.4 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.5 12.4 26.9 1.7 7.8
April 2017 23.0 4.1 14.6 6.4 5.1 2.2 2.0 3.8 12.4 24.1 2.3 8.4
March 2017 21.2 4.2 13.1 7.9 3.9 1.9 2.9 4.0 14.3 24.0 2.6 8.1
January 2017 21.0 4.2 10.5 6.9 3.8 1.9 6.2 15.0 26.0 4.5 10.5
December 2016 17.8 4.5 12.5 7.4 4.2 2.4 6.5 15.1 27.1 2.5 5.3
September 2016 17.9 5.0 17.3 7.3 2.5 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 3.4 13.0 28.6 0.0 0.6
August 2016 18.7 5.2 18.7 7.5 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.6 11.6 28.1 0.0 Tie
July 2016 18.6 6.1 18.2 7.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 4.3 9.4 29.3 0.0 0.4
July 2016 17.8 6.3 17.5 9.1 2.1 1.9 5.9 16.8 19.6 3.0 0.3
June 2016 19.2 5.4 17.1 7.8 2.3 3.1 8.4 11.3 22.7 2.7 2.1
May 2016 19.1 4.1 19.9 6.2 2.4 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 6.1 12.4 25.6 0.0 0.8
April 2016 16.7 3.7 20.0 8.1 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 11.9 29.8 0.0 3.3
March 2016 17.9 5.5 20.2 9.0 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 14.7 22.4 0.0 2.3
February 2016 18.5 5.4 18.1 8.3 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.6 17.5 22.1 1.0 0.4
February 2016 20.1 5.9 21.2 8.7 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.5 11.9 23.9 0.0 1.1
January 2016 18.7 5.3 16.8 8.1 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.2 12.6 30.7 0.0 1.9
December 2015 19.5 5.5 15.6 8.7 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 11.5 31.0 0.0 3.9
November 2015 18.1 8.1 14.9 8.2 5.6 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 12.6 26.8 0.0 3.2
October 2015 20.5 7.2 15.1 7.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 13.0 28.4 0.0 5.4
August 2015 21.7 8.0 13.6 10.0 4.4 2.8 12.7 25.1 1.7 8.1
April 2015 20.5 10.3 13.3 9.0 4.8 3.9 1.0 0.2 11.5 24.5 1.0 7.2
February 2015 18.4 9.8 12.7 7.7 3.6 3.4 15.3 26.5 2.6 5.7
2014 election 23.0 21.9 19.7 16.6 6.7 6.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 - - - - - - 0.4 1.1

Graphical summary[edit]

Opinion polling for Latvian Saeima election, 2018.png

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Saeimas vēlēšanas" (in Latvian). Latvian Central Election Committee. Retrieved 23 December 2016. Reizi četros gados, oktobra pirmajā sestdienā, Latvijā norisinās kārtējās parlamenta jeb Saeimas vēlēšanas. 
  2. ^ "16 parties will contest Saeima elections". Latvijas Sabiedriskais medijs. Retrieved 20 August 2018. 
  3. ^ "President nominates Straujuma to carry on". www.lsm.lv. Retrieved 2016-02-01. 
  4. ^ Kaža, Juris. "Latvia's Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma Steps Down". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2016-02-01. 
  5. ^ "Government falls as Straujuma resigns". www.lsm.lv. Retrieved 2016-02-01. 
  6. ^ Sputnik. "Latvian Prime Minister Straujuma Resigns". sputniknews.com. Retrieved 2016-02-01. 
  7. ^ "President nominates Māris Kučinskis as Prime Minister". www.lsm.lv. Retrieved 2016-02-01. 
  8. ^ Electoral system IPU
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  12. ^ "Izveidota LSDSP/KDS/GKL politisko partiju apvienība - Apvienība SKG". Gods kalpot mūsu Latvijai (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-09-17. 
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  14. ^ DELFI (2018-06-16). "'Jaunajai Vienotībai' pievienojas Jēkabpils reģionālā partija". DELFI (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-06-30. 
  15. ^ Egle, Ināra (2018-05-23). "Latgales partija ir apjukusi ("The Latgale Party is confused")". Diena. Retrieved 2018-06-30. 
  16. ^ "New Unity and Latgales party announce joint start at 13th Saeima elections". Baltic News Network. 2018-07-02. Retrieved 2018-09-17. 
  17. ^ ""Progresīvo" vēlēšanu sarakstā startēs atsevišķi "Latgales partijas" Daugavpils nodaļas pārstāvji". TVNET (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-09-17. 
  18. ^ ""Par!" neiesaistīsies "Vienotības" piedāvātajā apvienībā ar reģionu partijām - Valmieras Ziņas". Valmieras Ziņas (in Latvian). 2018-02-19. Retrieved 2018-06-30. 
  19. ^ The Baltic Course: Seven candidates not allowed to run in Saeima elections by Central Election Commission
  20. ^ Latvijas Sabiedriskais medijs: Russian Union leader Ždanoka nixed from Saeima elections
  21. ^ The Baltic Times: Latvia's Russian Union leader Zdanoka barred from running in Saeima elections
  22. ^ "Jaunās konservatīvās partijas premjera amata kandidāts – Jānis Bordāns - Jaunā konservatīvā partija". Jaunā konservatīvā partija (in Latvian). 2018-03-04. Retrieved 2018-04-19. 
  23. ^ "Apvienības JAUNĀ VIENOTĪBA Ministru prezidenta kandidāts – Krišjānis Kariņš" (in Latvian). 2018-03-23. Retrieved 2018-04-30. 
  24. ^ "KPV LV premjera amatam izvirza advokatu aldi gobzemu" (in Latvian). 2018-05-13. Retrieved 2018-05-13. 
  25. ^ "Regionu apvienibu par savu premjera amata kandidatu izvirza smiltenu" (in Latvian). 2018-05-19. Retrieved 2018-05-19. 
  26. ^ "13.Saeimas vēlēšanas: Nacionālā apvienība premjera amatam izvirza Robertu Zīli" (in Latvian). 2018-05-21. Retrieved 2018-05-26. 
  27. ^ "Opposition Saskaņa party reveals economist and preacher as spearheads". 2018-06-18. Retrieved 2018-06-20. 
  28. ^ "Ždanoka may get shot at Saeima elections after all". 2018-06-30. Retrieved 2018-07-02. 
  29. ^ "Partijas «Progresīvie» premjera amata kandidāts būs Roberts Putnis" (in Latvian). 2018-06-19. Retrieved 2018-07-11. 
  30. ^ "LZS kongress: Pret bēgļiem, par latvisku izglītību, nē koalīcijai ar «Saskaņu»" (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-04-18. 
  31. ^ "«Saskaņa» apstiprina Matīsa un Papules kandidatūras ministru amatiem" (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-06-21. 
  32. ^ "Nacionālā apvienība nosauc sarakstu līderus Saeimas vēlēšanām" (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-06-26. 
  33. ^ "13. Saeimas vēlēšanas: 'Progresīvie' priekšplānā izvirza sievietes" (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-07-20. 
  34. ^ "'Konservatīvie' nāk klajā ar savām Saeimas vēlēšanu lokomotīvēm" (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-07-20. 
  35. ^ DELFI (2018-05-17). "Partija 'Vienoti Latvijai' nestartēs Saeimas vēlēšanās (United for Latvia will not participate in the Saeima elections)". DELFI (in Latvian). Retrieved 2018-09-17. 
  36. ^ "Aicinājums Latvijas Republikas 13. Saeimas vēlētājiem- darbaļaudīm". Latvijas Sociālistiskā partija. Retrieved 2018-09-17.