44th Quebec general election

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44th Quebec general election
← 2022 On or before October 5, 2026 (2026-10-05)
125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Réseau Express Métropolitain (inauguration; François Legault) 08.jpg
Marc Tanguay Octobre 2023 (cropped).jpg
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (crop).jpg
Leader François Legault Marc Tanguay
(interim) 		Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois[a]
Party Coalition Avenir Québec Liberal Québec solidaire
Leader since November 4, 2011 November 10, 2022[b] May 21, 2017
Leader's seat L'Assomption LaFontaine Gouin
Last election 90 seats, 40.98% 21 seats, 14.37% 11 seats, 15.43%
Current seats 88 19 12
Seats needed Steady Increase 44 Increase 51
 
Paul.St-Pierre.Plamondon.cropped.jpg
Éric Duhaime 2022-07-05 (cropped).jpg
Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Éric Duhaime
Party Parti Québécois Conservative
Leader since October 9, 2020 April 17, 2021
Leader's seat Camille-Laurin None
Last election 3 seats, 14.61% 0 seats, 12.91%
Current seats 4 0
Seats needed Increase 59 Increase 63
Incumbent Premier

François Legault
Coalition Avenir Québec



The 44th Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 5, 2026, to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",[3] setting the date for October 5, 2026. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Background[edit]

In the 2022 general election, the Coalition Avenir Québec increased its parliamentary majority, winning 90 seats. The Liberals, despite finishing fourth in the popular vote behind Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois, remained the official opposition winning 21 seats.[4] The Parti Québecois lost most of its remaining seats but managed to elect its previously seatless leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to a seat.[5] The Conservatives increased their share of the vote to 13%; however, as their support was more spread out throughout Quebec, they did not gain any seats.[6]

Timeline[edit]

2022[edit]

2023[edit]

2024[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

Opinion Polling since 2022 election
Polling aggregators
Polling aggregator Date updated Source MoE CAQ QS PQ PLQ PCQ Other[c] Lead
338Canada March 22, 2024 [1] [d] 22.9 16.7 33.1 14.7 10.7 1.9 10.2
Polling Canada April 23, 2024 [2] — 20.3 13.7 33.1 21.7 10.9 0.3 11.4
2022 election October 3, 2022 41.0 15.4 14.6 14.4 12.9 1.7 25.6
Polling organisation Last date of polling Source Sample size MoE CAQ QS PQ PLQ PCQ Other Lead
Pallas Data April 21, 2024 PDF 1,256 ±2.8% 19.5 12.9 32.9 22.8 10.7 1.2 10.1
Leger March 18, 2024 PDF 1,033 ±3.05% 22 18 34 14 10 2 12
Pallas Data February 24, 2024 PDF 1,122 ±2.9% 23.1 16.5 31.4 14.5 12.8 1.7 8.3
Leger February 5, 2024 PDF 1,032 ±3.05% 25 16 32 15 11 1 7
Pallas Data January 24, 2024 PDF 1,175 ±2.9% 21.1 17 31.7 15.4 11.5 3.2 10.6
Leger December 4, 2023 PDF 1,040 ±3.04% 25 17 31 14 11 2 6
Pallas Data November 18, 2023 PDF 1,178 ±2.86% 24.1 16.1 30.4 15.5 11.3 2.7 6.3
Leger October 30, 2023 PDF 1,026 ±3.06% 30 15 26 15 12 3 4
PQ wins the by-election in Jean-Talon on October 2, 2023.
Pallas Data September 27, 2023 PDF 1,095 ±3.0% 34.5 15.4 19 14.7 14.6 1.9 15.5
Leger September 25, 2023 PDF 1,028 ±3.06% 34 17 22 14 12 1 12
Leger August 21, 2023 PDF 1,036 ±3.0% 37 15 22 12 11 3 15
Leger June 12, 2023 PDF 1,042 ±3.0% 37 16 23 13 9 2 14
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 PDF 506 — 33 17 22 13 12 3[e] 11
Leger May 1, 2023 PDF 1,201 ±3.0% 36 16 22 14 10 2 14
QS wins the by-election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne on March 13, 2023.
Leger February 26, 2023 PDF 1,044 ±3.0% 40 17 18 14 9 2 22
Leger December 10, 2022 PDF 1,002 ±3.1% 41 14 18 14 10 3 23
Leger November 6, 2022 PDF 1,028 ±3.1% 36 19 18 14 11 3 17
2022 election October 3, 2022 4,169,137 41.0 15.4 14.6 14.4 12.9 1.7 25.6

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Québec solidaire designates Nadeau-Dubois and Émilise Lessard-Therrien as co-spokespeople. Nadeau-Dubois was the party's candidate for premier during the 2022 general election.[1] The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Nicolas Chatel-Launay.[2]
  2. ^ Tanguay became interim Quebec Liberal Party leader on November 10, 2022, following the resignation of Dominique Anglade. He is expected to serve as interim leader until a new leader is elected.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.
  4. ^ ±3.9% for the Parti Québécois; ±3.2% for the Coalition Avenir Québec; ±2.6% for Québec Solidaire; ±2.3% for the Conservative Party of Quebec; ±2.2% for the Quebec Liberal Party
  5. ^ Including PVQ at 2%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois to take leadership role in Québec Solidaire as Manon Massé steps back". CBC News. May 16, 2021. Archived from the original on April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 13, 2022.
  2. ^ "Party details - Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  3. ^ An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
  4. ^ "Le PLQ formera l'opposition officielle". TVA Nouvelles (in French). October 3, 2022. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
  5. ^ Lachance, Nicolas (October 3, 2022). "PSPP fait son entrée à l'Assemblée nationale". TVA Nouvelles (in French). Retrieved October 4, 2022.
  6. ^ Serebrin, Jacob (October 4, 2022). "Quebec opposition parties call for electoral reform after vote, seat results". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
  7. ^ "Marie-Claude Nichols expelled from Que. Liberal caucus, will sit as independent". Montreal. October 27, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  8. ^ a b Bruemmer, René (November 7, 2022). "Yielding to critics, Anglade quits as Quebec Liberal leader and MNA". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
  9. ^ "Quebec Liberal Party names Marc Tanguay as interim leader". CBC News. November 10, 2022. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  10. ^ Joe Lofaro (March 7, 2023). "MNA Marie-Louise Tardif temporarily withdraws from CAQ caucus amid police investigation". CTV News. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  11. ^ "Québec Solidaire wins Montreal's Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne byelection". CBC News. March 10, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  12. ^ QMI Agency (March 28, 2023). "Aucune accusation contre la députée: Marie-Louise Tardif réintègre le caucus de la CAQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manon Massé quitte son rôle de co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). May 16, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
  14. ^ Charles Lecavalier (October 13, 2023). "QS facture les médias couvrant son congrès et fait marche arrière". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  15. ^ "La députée caquiste Joëlle Boutin démissionne". Radio-Canada (in French). July 19, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
  16. ^ "Results and statistics".
  17. ^ "Frédéric Beauchemin exclu du caucus libéral". Radio-Canada (in French). October 7, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  18. ^ Charles Lecavalier (November 26, 2023). "Émilise Lessard-Therrien élue co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  19. ^ Karim Ouadia (December 15, 2023). "Parti libéral du Québec : le député Frédéric Beauchemin réintègre le caucus". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  20. ^ Marc-André Gagnon (April 16, 2024). "Eric Lefebvre quitte le caucus de la CAQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved April 17, 2024.
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