Next Romanian legislative election

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Next Romanian legislative election
Romania
← 2020 On or before 21 March 2025

All 136 seats in the Senate
All 330 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
69 and 166 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Chamber
PSD Marcel Ciolacu 105
PNL Nicolae Ciucă 80
USR Cătălin Drulă 46
AUR George Simion 24
UDMR Hunor Kelemen 20
FD Ludovic Orban 16
Minority parties Varujan Pambuccian[a] 18[b]
Senate
PSD Marcel Ciolacu 47
PNL Nicolae Ciucă 37
USR Cătălin Drulă 23
AUR George Simion 13
UDMR Hunor Kelemen 9
FD Ludovic Orban 3
Incumbent Prime Minister
Nicolae Ciucă Nicolae Ciucă
PNL

The next Romanian legislative elections must be held at the latest before 21 March 2025 (highly likely at some point during late 2024), that is three months after the term of the incumbent legislature of the Romanian Parliament (i.e. LVI) expires.

The forthcoming Romanian legislative elections are most likely going to take place in either November or December 2024, along with the presidential election of that year. If that will be the case, it will be for the first time in Romania since the 2004 general election, that the local, legislative, and presidential elections alike will all be held during the same year, thereby creating the premise for a resurgence of the general election in Romania.

Nevertheless, a snap election may be called by the still incumbent President, more specifically Klaus Iohannis, in accordance with the constitutional provisions (i.e. after the dissolution of the current legislature of the incumbent parliament) even considerably earlier than to term in late 2024.

Background[edit]

Following the previous elections in December 2020, the Cîțu Cabinet was appointed, backed by a centre-right coalition of three Romanian political parliamentary parties as follows: the conservative liberal National Liberal Party (PNL), the progressive liberal/neoliberal USR PLUS (subsequently switched back to the old USR acronym in late 2021), and the Hungarian minority-oriented Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR/RMDSZ).[1]

In Romania, the President also plays an active role in politics, in spite of the constitutional prerogatives which held that he should act as an arbiter and mediator. Following the December 2019 presidential election, Klaus Iohannis of the National Liberal Party (PNL) was re-elected for another five years. Nonetheless, he is not eligible for a third term in 2024 or any longer in the future for that matter.

Both legislative and presidential terms will end in late 2024. Hence, both election types could be held on the same days, which would be the first time for such an electoral concatenation in Romania since the 2004 general election.[2]

Organization[edit]

On 18 December 2019, the head of the AEP stated that internet voting would be implemented for the 2024 electoral year.[3]

Events[edit]

Governmental crisis (September–November 2021)[edit]

The Cîțu cabinet, which took office on 23 December 2020,[4] comprised two conservative liberal parties, namely the PNL and the UDMR/RMDSZ as well as the progressive liberal USR PLUS (which, after its latest congress held in early October 2021, returned to its initial official denomination, more specifically USR).[5]

In September 2021, a major rift within the coalition led to the onset of the 2021 Romanian political crisis. Prime Minister Cîțu, with the unconditional support of President Klaus Iohannis, sacked Justice minister Stelian Ion.[6][7] All the other USR ministers withdrew from government by 7 September 2021,[8] which left the Cîțu cabinet in minority (with the limited support of PNL and UDMR/RMDSZ). Subsequently, two motions of no-confidence were filed, one by USR PLUS and the extremist-populist AUR and the second by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) with the three parties holding together a majority of seats needed for the dismissal of Prime Minister Cîțu and his minority cabinet.[9]

Furthermore, Florin Cîțu was contested within the PNL but, in counterpart, received full support of President Iohannis, as he also sought to obtain the PNL leadership from previous PNL president Ludovic Orban. On 25 September 2021, Cîțu defeated Orban in the leadership vote of the PNL Congress.[10] USR PLUS also held a leadership vote where Dacian Cioloș was elected new party president with 50.9% of the votes over Dan Barna, and the party's name switched to USR again.[11][12] In addition, the party line was still to remove Cîțu as Prime Minister.[13]

On 4 October, Cîțu stated that any collaboration with USR was now impossible.[14] According to the incumbent USR Mayor of Brașov, Allen Coliban, Cîțu's minority government held thanks for its limited existence only to the PSD.[15] Nevertheless, on 5 October, the PSD motion of no-confidence was put to a vote, and won a large majority of 281, corresponding to PSD, USR, and AUR. Cîțu continued to serve as acting Prime Minister until the next government, more specifically the Ciucă cabinet, was sworn in on 25 November.[16]

New political parties[edit]

On 19 September 2021, former PSD president Liviu Dragnea, along with former and current ally Codrin Ștefănescu, launched the Alliance for the Fatherland (Romanian: Alianța pentru Patrie, ApP), a split-off from PSD and an alternative to it according to both.[17]

On 3 October 2021, former PNL Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, who had just been defeated for the leadership of the PNL by Florin Cîțu at the 2021 party congress, stated that he is willing "to create a new political construction which would be ready to continue PNL's legacy".[18][19] In this regard, at that time it was thought that he could be following the steps of Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, another former national liberal Prime Minister who left PNL in order to establish his own political party, more specifically ALDE (which was subsequently absorbed by the PNL during late March 2022).[20]

In addition, before further concrete steps on behalf of Orban, various commentators stated that Orban's faction could part ways with the main PNL should he not be designated PM after Cîțu's dismissal by the Parliament (which also occurred in the meantime). Subsequently, after PNL started negotiations with the PSD, more and more MPs resigned from the PNL and joined Orban's faction in the Parliament. Orban's new party was officially registered in December 2021 and is called "Force of the Right" (or FD for short).[21]

Former PSD president and Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă has, in the meantime, become president of the Nation People Together (NOI) party.[22]

Former independent/technocratic Prime Minister and PLUS/USR PLUS/USR member (as well as former USR president) Dacian Cioloș officially quit the USR on 31 May 2022 to form a brand new party called REPER.[23] Several MEPs (more specifically 4) who have been previously elected on the lists of the 2020 USR PLUS Alliance at the 2019 European Parliament election in Romania have sided with Dacian Cioloș for his newly established political project, but still remain affiliated with the Renew group in the European Parliament. REPER can thus be considered a splinter of USR.

New political alliances[edit]

As of May 2022, PNȚ-CD announced that it is preparing a new political alliance with Liviu Dragnea's APP for the forthcoming Romanian general elections scheduled in 2024. The two parties will allegedly form a "sovereignist" block which will oppose the National Coalition for Romania (CNR).[24]

Method[edit]

To enter either chambers of the Parliament of Romania, a list has to overcome the electoral threshold, which is set at 5% for non-ethnic parties, and proportional representation is then applied by county.

National minorities, however, do not have to pass the threshold to enter the lower chamber (i.e. Chamber of Deputies), often resulting in more than a dozen MPs with no affiliation to a nationwide political party.

Opinion polls[edit]

  PSD
  PNL
  USR
  AUR
  UDMR
  PMP
  PRO
  ALDE
[c]
  PUSL
  PER
  ApP
  FD

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Pambuccian has been the parliamentary leader of the national minorities' group since 1996 onwards.
  2. ^ Including one new seat recently occupied in the Chamber by RO.AS.IT (through party switching).
  3. ^ ALDE is no longer active at any political level since late March 2022, having been entirely absorbed by the PNL in the meantime.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Departamentul Politic al Mediafax (23 December 2020). "Noul Guvern de coaliție condus de Florin Cîțu a fost învestit de Parlament. Mesaj scurt al lui Iohannis, la ceremonia de învestire". Mediafax (in Romanian). Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  2. ^ Redacția G4Media (9 June 2020). "Victor Ponta: 2024 e un an special, se întâmplă o dată la 20 de ani să ai toate alegerile. Eu dacă ratez momentul 2024, ca om politic, nu îmi mai vine rândul peste 20 de ani". G4Media (in Romanian). Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  3. ^ G.S. (18 December 2019). "Șeful AEP: În 2024, când toate cele patru rânduri de alegeri vor fi în același an, vom avea vot pe internet". HotNews.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  4. ^ "Liberal Florin Cîțu put forward to be Romania's next prime minister". 19 December 2020. Retrieved 15 April 2021.
  5. ^ Robert Kiss (1 September 2021). "Florin Cîțu, după ce USR PLUS a amenințat că pleacă din Guvern: Amenințările vin și pleacă. Proiectul "Anghel Saligny" va trece". Digi24 (in Romanian). Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  6. ^ Dan Popa (16 September 2021). "PNL, acest PSD de dreapta. Rivale, dar își unesc puterile". Ziare.com (in Romanian). Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  7. ^ Bogdan Păcurar (30 September 2021). "Orban: Florin Cîțu trebuia să-și dea demisia din momentul în care USR PLUS a decis să se retragă din coaliţie". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 30 September 2021.
  8. ^ Andreea Ghiorghe (7 September 2021). "Miniştrii USR PLUS şi-au depus demisiile din Guvernul Cîţu. Barna: "Am făcut ceea ce am anunţat"". Adevărul (in Romanian). Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  9. ^ Robert Kiss (20 September 2021). "PSD va depune moțiune de cenzură dacă cea inițiată de USR PLUS și AUR este declarată neconstituțională". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  10. ^ Redacția Digi24.ro (25 September 2021). "Florin Cîțu este noul președinte al PNL. Are aproape 1.000 de voturi în plus față de Ludovic Orban". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 26 September 2021.
  11. ^ Redacția HotNews.ro (1 October 2021). "LIVEVIDEO Dacian Cioloș va fi noul președinte al USR-PLUS. Scord strâns cu Dan Barna. Rezultatul urmează să fie validat la congres/ Primele reacții ale lui Cioloș și Barna". HotNews.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  12. ^ Alexandru Costea (3 October 2021). "Surse: USR PLUS a decis să se numească doar USR. Susținătorii lui Barna sunt nemulțumiți de alegerea lui Cioloș ca președinte". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 3 October 2021.
  13. ^ Alexandru Costea (1 October 2021). "Cioloș, după ce a fost ales președintele USR PLUS: Toate variantele sunt pe masă, mai puțin premierul Cîțu. Nu intru în Guvern". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  14. ^ Laura Buciu (4 October 2021). "Cîțu: Guvernarea cu USR devine imposibilă după decizia de marți". Mediafax (in Romanian). Retrieved 5 October 2021.
  15. ^ Bogdan Păcurar (4 October 2021). "Allen Coliban: Florin Cîțu și-a încălcat repetat promisiunile și mai este prim-ministru doar cu sprijinul PSD. PNL trebuie să aleagă". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  16. ^ LIVE Guvernul PSD-PNL-UDMR a fost învestit de Parlament cu 318 voturi „pentru” / Ciucă: Ne aflăm într-un moment mult așteptat de toți românii / Ciolacu: Nu voi minți niciodată că am învins pandemia / Barna: De ce nu l-ați chemat direct pe Dragnea să îi predați Ministerul Justiției?
  17. ^ Alexandra Andronie (20 September 2021). "Liviu Dragnea a anunțat numele partidului pe care i-l construiește Codrin Ștefănescu" (in Romanian). Retrieved 31 May 2022.
  18. ^ Liviu Cojan (3 October 2021). "Orban amenință că își face partid: Sunt gata să creez o construcție care să continue trecutul PNL". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 3 October 2021.
  19. ^ Adrian Dumitru (3 October 2021). "Orban: Iohannis a vrut un PNL progresist. Cam bate un vânt nu foarte pe gustul românilor, care e împotriva identităților naționale". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  20. ^ Redacția Aktual24 (22 March 2022). "PNL a inghitit oficial ALDE, cele doua partide au fuzionat. Rares Bogdan a fost in comisia PNL de negociere cu ALDE". Aktual24.ro (in Romanian).
  21. ^ Redacția Aktual24.ro (14 December 2021). "Ludovic Orban si-a lansat noul partid: Forta Dreptei. "Au fost in stare sa voteze un Guvern in care e domnul Grindeanu, cu doamna Firea, personaje care sunt profund displacute"". Aktual24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 15 December 2021.
  22. ^ Bogdan Păcurar (12 April 2022). "Viorica Dăncilă a anunțat că nu primește pesediști în partidul ei: „În acest moment nu"" (in Romanian). Retrieved 31 May 2022.
  23. ^ Redacția Digi24 (31 May 2022). "Dacian Cioloș și oamenii lui și-au dat demisia din USR. Aceștia anunță înființarea partidului REPER". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 31 May 2022.
  24. ^ Monica Bonea (15 May 2022). "PNȚCD anunță că pregătește o alianță politică cu partidul lui Liviu Dragnea". Digi24.ro (in Romanian). Retrieved 15 May 2022.