2020 Serbian parliamentary election
|This article is part of a series on the|
politics and government of
In the 2016 parliamentary election, the ruling parties—the Serbian Progressive Party-led coalition and the Socialist Party of Serbia-led coalition—were returned to power, and incumbent Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić was re-elected. However, in the 2017 presidential election, Vučić was elected president, and left the government for his new position. The election result sparked protests around Serbia. Thousands of protesters accused Vučić of leading the country towards authoritarianism. The OSCE report criticized unbalanced media coverage during the election campaign, use of public resources to support Vučić and reports of pressure on employees of state-affiliated institutions to support Vučić and secure, in a cascade fashion, support from family members and friends. Ana Brnabić was appointed for the head of government as a non-partisan politician, becoming Serbia's first female and first openly gay Prime Minister. Two years later, she joined the ruling Serbian Progressive Party.
In January 2019, Vučić repeated that there was a possibility of holding early elections 'some time during 2019'. Observers noted that this was highly likely, as it would enable the SNS to make electoral gains before having to compromise on unpopular decisions regarding the status of Kosovo, which is expected to hit the party's rating.
In May 2019, the European Commission in the Serbia 2019 Report criticized election conditions and expressed a serious concern about press freedom. They also stated that there was a negative impact on the work of democratic institutions, in particular the National Assembly, and there was an urgent need to create space for genuine cross-party debate and conditions for meaningful participation by the opposition in the parliament.
Meanwhile, Vučić was also put under pressure by civil and opposition protests in Belgrade and other cities, with the opposition demanding more media freedom, as well as free and fair elections and ministerial resignations. These were the largest anti-government protests since Vučić came to power in 2012, with media reports estimating the attendance at protests to be between 25,000 and 70,000 people. Parallel to the protests, Vučić launched a campaign "Future of Serbia”, organizing rallies in all districts of Serbia.
After the most massive civil and opposition protest on 13 April, the non-partisan expert group was introduced and they later formulated the demands of the protests, concluded there were no conditions for free and fair elections, and eventually drafted a comprehensive document with demands and recommendations. In early September, the protest organizers called for a boycott of the coming election because no recommendation of the expert team was adopted.
Afther the unsuccessful conclusion of the negotiation mediated by the University of Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences and NGOs, the first round of inter-party European Parliament-mediated dialogue in Serbia took place in October, which was initiated by David McAllister, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the EP. The Alliance for Serbia refused to participate, stating that there is no time for their demands for fair election conditions to be met before April, when the election is scheduled. In December 2019, following three rounds of dialogue, the EP delegation members announced that conditions for fair and free elections had not been established. After the last round, it was concluded that continued observation of implementation was necessary and it was agreed to move the election as late as possible.
After the 2017 presidential elections, Saša Janković, who finished second with 16.3% of the vote, formed the centre-left Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) in May 2017. In October 2017, Vuk Jeremić, who finished fourth with 5.6% of the vote, formed his own centre-right People's Party (NS), which cooperates closely with Janković's party.
In June 2018, opposition parties held talks on forming an alliance, which became possible with the election of leadership in the Democratic Party, which is in favor of forming the alliance with Dragan Đilas (who was very successful in Belgrade local election) and the PSG and NS. This alliance of mostly pro-Western and pro-EU parties will include other opposition organizations, regardless of their stance on EU, including Dveri, an anti-EU party. The opposition alliance is dubbed by the media and main participants in its formation as Alliance for Serbia (Serbian: Savez sa Srbiju - SZS).
Almost all opposition parties (except Democratic Party of Serbia, Enough is Enough, Serbian Patriotic Alliance and Don't let Belgrade d(r)own) signed Agreement with People in February 2019, where they promised to boycott the 2020 elections if they were deemed irregular. In addition, in September 2019, the protest organizers called for a boycott of the next election.
Parties and individuals that have declared election boycott so far:
- Alliance for Serbia:
- Civic Front
- Enough is Enough
- Movement of Free Citizens
Parties that are waiting elections to be called to decide:
Opposition parties that are against boycott:
- Party of Modern Serbia
- Liberal Democratic Party
- League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina
- Serbian Radical Party
- New Serbia
- Serbian Patriotic Alliance
The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 5% (with the percentages calculated including the invalid and blank votes cast), although it is waived for ethnic minority parties.
The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown with a hyphen (-). If a poll was conducted prior to an establishment of a party, a hyphen is given instead of the result. Poll results use the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.
The results of the SNS in different polls represent results of the party itself, although it usually runs in a broad coalition, which includes, besides SNS as the largest party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Movement of Socialists, Strength of Serbia Movement, Independent Democratic Party of Serbia and Serbian People's Party. SPS formed a longstanding coalition with United Serbia, included in SPS poll results. All polls are conducted excluding Kosovo.
|Polling Organization||Date||Sample size||SNS||SPS||SRS||DJB||DS||Dveri||DSS||PSG||NS||SZS||SPAS||Others||Lead|
|PSG declared election boycott|
|Faktor plus||04 Jan||1,200||53.1||9.9||3.2||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.4||6.6||(with SZS)||10||4.3||10.5||43.1|
|NDI||04 Jan||-||34||7||3||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||3||(with SZS)||6||2||45||27|
|NSPM||24 Dec||1,000||43.1||11.3||2.5||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1||3.8||(with SZS)||14||2.3||21.9||29.1|
|Faktor plus||9 Dec||-||52.9||9.8||3.2||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.4||6.5||(with SZS)||10.1||4.1||11||42.8|
|Ipsos||4 Nov||-||56||12.5||5||3.5||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.7||5||(with SZS)||8.5||3.6||3.1||43.5|
|NSPM||15-22 Sep||1,000||43.8||10.8||2||1.1||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||4.3||(with SZS)||14.2||2.4||19.4[a]||29.6|
|Faktor plus||15 Oct||-||52||9.8||3.8||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.4||5.7||(with SZS)||11.2||4||11.1||40.8|
|SZS declared election boycott|
|Faktor plus||11 Sep||-||52.4||10||4||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.2||5.5||(with SZS)||11.5||3.8||12.8||40.9|
|Faktor plus||29 Jul–1 Aug||1,000||52.3||9.5||4.8||2.3||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.9||5.3||(with SZS)||11.2||3.5||10.5||41.1|
|BIRODI||9 Jul||1,006||50.7||6.0||-||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||3.9||(with SZS)||15.2||4.1||20.1||35.5|
|NSPM||30 Jun–7 Jul||1,000||44.5||8.2||2.8||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||0.7||3.7||(with SZS)||11.3||2.7||26[b]||33.2|
|Faktor plus||28 Jun–4 Jul||1,200||53||9.9||5.3||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||3||5.2||(with SZS)||11.1||3.5||9||41.9|
|Faktor plus||30 May–5 Jun||1,200||51.3||9.7||5.8||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||(with SPAS)||5.1||(with SZS)||10.6||6.7||10.2||40.7|
|Faktor plus||30 Apr–8 May||-||55||9.8||3.2||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||(with SPAS)||5||(with SZS)||10.5||6.6||9.9||44.5|
|NSPM||19–27 Apr||1,000||44.4||9.1||2||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1||4||(with SZS)||14.5||1.5||23.5[c]||29.9|
|Faktor plus||7–11 Apr||1,000||54.8||10.1||3.1||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.9||5.1||(with SZS)||11.8||3.2||9[d]||43|
|Ipsos||4–5 Apr||1,100||53.9||12.2||4||3.0||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.3||6.2||(with SZS)||9.8||3.0||13.9||41.7|
|NSPM||16 Mar||1,000||43.4||8.7||2.7||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1.7||4.4||(with SZS)||13.2||2.9||23.1[e]||30.2|
|Ipsos||13 Mar||-||55||12||4.5||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||8||(with SZS)||10||-||10.5||43|
|Faktor plus||8 Mar||1,200||55.1||10||3.8||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.8||5||(with SZS)||12.2||3.1||8[f]||42.9|
|Faktor plus||1 Feb||-||55||10||4.2||1.9||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.3||2.5||(with SZS)||13.6||2.9||7.6[g]||41.4|
|Ipsos||20 Jan||1,000||55||12||4||2||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1.5||3||(with SZS)||14||3||5.5||41|
|Faktor plus||17–26 Dec||1,250||53.8||9.8||4.5||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.2||1.2||(with SZS)||14.4||2.8||11.3[h]||39.4|
|Faktor plus||3–6 Dec||1,050||53.5||9||4||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2.1||3.4||(with SZS)||13.9||2.9||11.2[i]||39.7|
|Civil and opposition protests began|
|NSPM||15–23 Nov||1,000||48.4||11.8||2.6||0.5||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||1||(with SZS)||17.3||2.8||15.6||31.1|
|Faktor plus||9 Nov||1,200||53.6||9.5||4.7||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||2||3.5||(with SZS)||13.1||2.7||13.6[j]||40.5|
|Faktor plus||5–11 Oct||1,200||54||9||3.8||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1.9||3.8||(with SZS)||11.7||2.5||13.3[k]||42.3|
|CeSid||5–20 Sep||1,510||53.3||8.8||4.2||1.8||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||-||4.2||(with SZS)||15.3||4.9||7.5||38|
|Faktor plus||31 Aug–7 Sep||1,200||54.7||9.4||4.2||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1.7||3.5||(with SZS)||9.7||1.8||15[l]||45|
|Faktor plus||3–8 Aug||1,100||54.8||9.4||4.3||-||(with SZS)||(with SZS)||1.8||3.6||(with SZS)||9.6||-||16.5[m]||45.2|
|SZS and SPAS formed|
|Faktor plus||1–6 Jul||1,200||54.8||8.8||4.3||-||3.2||2.8||1.3||2.4||3.2||5.2[n]||-||14[o]||46|
|Faktor plus||1–7 Jun||1,200||55.3||9.4||2.7||-||3.6||3||1.3||1.6||3.5||-||-||19.6[p]||45.9|
|Faktor plus||2–6 May||1,040||56.9||9.6||2.8||-||3.5||3||1.3||1.8||3.6||-||-||17.5[q]||47.3|
|Faktor plus||6 April||1,100||56.7||9.5||2.6||1||3.8||2.8||1.3||2||3.4||-||-||16.9[r]||47.2|
|Faktor plus||8 March||-||54||9.8||2.9||1.7||3.5||2.8||1.2||3.9||3||-||-||17.2[s]||44.2|
|Faktor plus||23–29 Jan||1,200||53.1||10||4.2||2.8||6.9||3||-||4.8||3.9||-||-||11.3[t]||43.1|
|NSPM[u]||24 Dec–4 Jan||1,200||45.6||8.9||4.5||4.7||9||5||-||11.1||3.1||-||-||8.1||34.5|
|Faktor plus||15–25 Dec||1,200||53||10||5.2||3.1||7||3||-||5.7||3.8||-||-||9.2||43|
|Faktor plus||28 Nov–5 Dec||1,200||53||9.5||4||2.8||6.9||3||-||5.6||3.8||-||-||11.4||43.5|
|Faktor plus||9 Nov||-||52.9||9.1||4.2||2.6||6.7||3.2||-||7.2||3.3||-||-||10.8||43.8|
|Faktor plus||4–8 Oct||1,250||52.8||9.2||4.1||2.3||6.9||3||-||7.8||-||-||-||13.9[v]||43.6|
|Faktor plus||5–10 Aug||1,200||52.1||9.7||4||2.9||7.9||2.8||-||7||-||-||-||13.6||42.4|
|Faktor plus||30 Jun–6 Jul||1,200||52.2||9.8||4||2.8||8||2.9||-||7.9||-||-||-||12.4||42.4|
|Faktor plus||26–31 May||1,100||52||9.1||5.1||3.7||7.4||2.7||-||8.5||-||-||-||11.5||42.9|
|2017 presidential election (Vučić from SNS wins), PSG formed|
|Faktor plus||4–7 Mar||1,200||50.6||10.6||8||6.5||7.5||4||-||-||-||-||-||12.8||40|
|Faktor plus||24–31 Jan||1,200||51.2||10.5||8.7||7||6.8||3.8||-||-||-||-||-||12||40.7|
|Faktor plus||16–26 Dec||1,200||51.4||10||8.8||7||6.5||-||-||-||-||-||-||16.3||41.4|
|Faktor plus||9–16 Nov||1,100||51.5||10.4||8.8||7.1||5.5||3.3||-||-||-||-||-||13.4||41.1|
|Faktor plus||6–11 Oct||1,200||51.4||10.6||8.9||7||5||3.2||2.1||-||-||-||-||11.8||40.8|
|Faktor plus||1–8 Sep||1,200||51||10.1||8||6.3||4.8||3.1||2||-||-||-||-||14.7||40.9|
|Faktor plus||1–8 Aug||1,100||51.9||10.3||7.1||7||5||3||2.3||-||-||-||-||13.4||41.6|
|Faktor plus||24–30 Jun||1,200||51.8||10.1||7.7||7.4||5||5.3||(with Dveri)||-||-||-||-||12.7||41.7|
|Faktor plus||30 May||1,200||50.1||10.8||8||7.5||5.5||5.6||(with Dveri)||-||-||-||-||12.5||39.3|
|2016 election||24 Apr 16||N/A||48.25||10.95||8.10||6.02||6.02||5.04||(with Dveri)||-||-||-||-||9.24||37.3|
- Including 15.8% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
- Including 22.8% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
- Including 19.2% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
- Including 3.5% for the PUPS, and 2.3% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 17.9% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, and 2.3% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, and 2.1% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 1.4% for the PUPS, and 2% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.3% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.4% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Hypothetical rating of a party expected to be formed by Dragan Djilas, former Mayor of Belgrade
- Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.8% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.7% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.5% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.8% for the SDPS, and 1.3% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.2% for the PUPS, 3% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Including 3.2% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Poll was conducted in Belgrade, on the matter of voting preferences regarding state level government
- Including 3.1% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
- Hypothetical rating
- Including 1.7% for the SDPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
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- Electoral system IPU