2020 Serbian parliamentary election

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2020 Serbian parliamentary election
Serbia
← 2016 2020
Party Leader Current seats
SNS coalition Aleksandar Vučić 130
SzS Collective leadership 30
SPSJSZS Ivica Dačić 28
SRS Vojislav Šešelj 22
LDPLSV Čedomir Jovanović 8
SMS Collective leadership 6
VMSZVMDP István Pásztor 4
DJB Saša Radulović 3
Civic Platform Jovan Jovanović 2
SPP Muamer Zukorlić 2
SDA S Sulejman Ugljanin 2
DSS Miloš Jovanović 2
ZES Goran Čabradi 2
NOVA Zoran Živković 1
NS Velimir Ilić 1
PDD Riza Halimi 1
Incumbent Prime Minister
Ana Brnabić
SNS
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Serbia no later than 3 May 2020.[1]

Background[edit]

In the 2016 parliamentary election, the ruling parties—the Serbian Progressive Party-led coalition and the Socialist Party of Serbia-led coalition—were returned to power, and incumbent Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić was re-elected. However, in the 2017 presidential election, Vučić was elected president, and left the government for his new position. The election result sparked protests around Serbia. Thousands of protesters accused Vučić of leading the country towards authoritarianism.[2] The OSCE report criticized unbalanced media coverage during the election campaign, use of public resources to support Vučić and reports of pressure on employees of state-affiliated institutions to support Vučić and secure, in a cascade fashion, support from family members and friends.[3] Ana Brnabić was appointed for the head of government as a non-partisan politician, becoming Serbia's first female and first openly gay Prime Minister. Two years later, she joined the ruling Serbian Progressive Party.

In January 2019, Vučić repeated that there was a possibility of holding early elections 'some time during 2019'. Observers noted that this was highly likely, as it would enable the SNS to make electoral gains before having to compromise on unpopular decisions regarding the status of Kosovo, which is expected to hit the party's rating.[4]

In May 2019, the European Commission in the Serbia 2019 Report criticized election conditions and expressed a serious concern about press freedom.[5] They also stated that there was a negative impact on the work of democratic institutions, in particular the National Assembly, and there was an urgent need to create space for genuine cross-party debate and conditions for meaningful participation by the opposition in the parliament.[5]

Anti-government protests[edit]

Meanwhile, Vučić was also put under pressure by civil and opposition protests in Belgrade and other cities, with the opposition demanding more media freedom, as well as free and fair elections and ministerial resignations. These were the largest anti-government protests since Vučić came to power in 2012, with media reports estimating the attendance at protests to be between 25,000 and 70,000 people.[6] Parallel to the protests, Vučić launched a campaign "Future of Serbia”, organizing rallies in all districts of Serbia.[7]

After the most massive civil and opposition protest on 13 April, the non-partisan expert group was introduced and they later formulated the demands of the protests, concluded there were no conditions for free and fair elections, and eventually drafted a comprehensive document with demands and recommendations.[8][9][10] In early September, the protest organizers called for a boycott of the coming election because no recommendation of the expert team was adopted.[11]

Inter-party negotiations[edit]

Afther the unsuccessful conclusion of the negotiation mediated by the University of Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences and NGOs, the first round of inter-party European Parliament-mediated dialogue in Serbia took place in October, which was initiated by David McAllister, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the EP.[12] The Alliance for Serbia refused to participate, stating that there is no time for their demands for fair election conditions to be met before April, when the election is scheduled.[12] In December 2019, following three rounds of dialogue, the EP delegation members announced that conditions for fair and free elections had not been established.[13] After the last round, it was concluded that continued observation of implementation was necessary and it was agreed to move the election as late as possible.[14]

Participating parties[edit]

After the 2017 presidential elections, Saša Janković, who finished second with 16.3% of the vote, formed the centre-left Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) in May 2017.[15][16] In October 2017, Vuk Jeremić, who finished fourth with 5.6% of the vote, formed his own centre-right People's Party (NS), which cooperates closely with Janković's party.[17][18]

In June 2018, opposition parties held talks on forming an alliance, which became possible with the election of leadership in the Democratic Party, which is in favor of forming the alliance with Dragan Đilas (who was very successful in Belgrade local election) and the PSG and NS. This alliance of mostly pro-Western and pro-EU parties will include other opposition organizations, regardless of their stance on EU, including Dveri, an anti-EU party.[19] The opposition alliance is dubbed by the media and main participants in its formation as Alliance for Serbia (Serbian: Savez sa Srbiju - SZS).

Boycott[edit]

Almost all opposition parties (except Democratic Party of Serbia, Enough is Enough, Serbian Patriotic Alliance and Don't let Belgrade d(r)own) signed Agreement with People in February 2019, where they promised to boycott the 2020 elections if they were deemed irregular. In addition, in September 2019, the protest organizers called for a boycott of the next election.

Parties and individuals that have declared election boycott so far:

Parties that are waiting elections to be called to decide:

Opposition parties that are against boycott:

Electoral system[edit]

The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 5% (with the percentages calculated including the invalid and blank votes cast), although it is waived for ethnic minority parties.[20]

Opinion polls[edit]

The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown with a hyphen (-). If a poll was conducted prior to an establishment of a party, a hyphen is given instead of the result. Poll results use the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

The results of the SNS in different polls represent results of the party itself, although it usually runs in a broad coalition, which includes, besides SNS as the largest party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Movement of Socialists, Strength of Serbia Movement, Independent Democratic Party of Serbia and Serbian People's Party. SPS formed a longstanding coalition with United Serbia, included in SPS poll results. All polls are conducted excluding Kosovo.

Polling Organization Date Sample size SNS SPS SRS DJB DS Dveri DSS PSG NS SZS SPAS Others Lead
PSG declared election boycott
Faktor plus 04 Jan 1,200 53.1 9.9 3.2 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.4 6.6 (with SZS) 10 4.3 10.5 43.1
NDI 04 Jan - 34 7 3 - (with SZS) (with SZS) - 3 (with SZS) 6 2 45 27
2020
NSPM 24 Dec 1,000 43.1 11.3 2.5 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1 3.8 (with SZS) 14 2.3 21.9 29.1
Faktor plus 9 Dec - 52.9 9.8 3.2 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.4 6.5 (with SZS) 10.1 4.1 11 42.8
Ipsos 4 Nov - 56 12.5 5 3.5 (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.7 5 (with SZS) 8.5 3.6 3.1 43.5
NSPM 15-22 Sep 1,000 43.8 10.8 2 1.1 (with SZS) (with SZS) - 4.3 (with SZS) 14.2 2.4 19.4[a] 29.6
Faktor plus 15 Oct - 52 9.8 3.8 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.4 5.7 (with SZS) 11.2 4 11.1 40.8
SZS declared election boycott
Faktor plus 11 Sep - 52.4 10 4 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.2 5.5 (with SZS) 11.5 3.8 12.8 40.9
Faktor plus 29 Jul–1 Aug 1,000 52.3 9.5 4.8 2.3 (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.9 5.3 (with SZS) 11.2 3.5 10.5 41.1
BIRODI 9 Jul 1,006 50.7 6.0 - - (with SZS) (with SZS) - 3.9 (with SZS) 15.2 4.1 20.1 35.5
NSPM 30 Jun–7 Jul 1,000 44.5 8.2 2.8 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 0.7 3.7 (with SZS) 11.3 2.7 26[b] 33.2
Faktor plus 28 Jun–4 Jul 1,200 53 9.9 5.3 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 3 5.2 (with SZS) 11.1 3.5 9 41.9
Faktor plus 30 May–5 Jun 1,200 51.3 9.7 5.8 - (with SZS) (with SZS) (with SPAS) 5.1 (with SZS) 10.6 6.7 10.2 40.7
Faktor plus 30 Apr–8 May - 55 9.8 3.2 - (with SZS) (with SZS) (with SPAS) 5 (with SZS) 10.5 6.6 9.9 44.5
NSPM 19–27 Apr 1,000 44.4 9.1 2 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1 4 (with SZS) 14.5 1.5 23.5[c] 29.9
Faktor plus 7–11 Apr 1,000 54.8 10.1 3.1 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.9 5.1 (with SZS) 11.8 3.2 9[d] 43
Ipsos 4–5 Apr 1,100 53.9 12.2 4 3.0 (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.3 6.2 (with SZS) 9.8 3.0 13.9 41.7
NSPM 16 Mar 1,000 43.4 8.7 2.7 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1.7 4.4 (with SZS) 13.2 2.9 23.1[e] 30.2
Ipsos 13 Mar - 55 12 4.5 - (with SZS) (with SZS) - 8 (with SZS) 10 - 10.5 43
Faktor plus 8 Mar 1,200 55.1 10 3.8 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.8 5 (with SZS) 12.2 3.1 8[f] 42.9
Faktor plus 1 Feb - 55 10 4.2 1.9 (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.3 2.5 (with SZS) 13.6 2.9 7.6[g] 41.4
Ipsos 20 Jan 1,000 55 12 4 2 (with SZS) (with SZS) 1.5 3 (with SZS) 14 3 5.5 41
2019
Faktor plus 17–26 Dec 1,250 53.8 9.8 4.5 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.2 1.2 (with SZS) 14.4 2.8 11.3[h] 39.4
Faktor plus 3–6 Dec 1,050 53.5 9 4 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2.1 3.4 (with SZS) 13.9 2.9 11.2[i] 39.7
Civil and opposition protests began
NSPM 15–23 Nov 1,000 48.4 11.8 2.6 0.5 (with SZS) (with SZS) - 1 (with SZS) 17.3 2.8 15.6 31.1
Faktor plus 9 Nov 1,200 53.6 9.5 4.7 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 2 3.5 (with SZS) 13.1 2.7 13.6[j] 40.5
Faktor plus 5–11 Oct 1,200 54 9 3.8 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1.9 3.8 (with SZS) 11.7 2.5 13.3[k] 42.3
CeSid 5–20 Sep 1,510 53.3 8.8 4.2 1.8 (with SZS) (with SZS) - 4.2 (with SZS) 15.3 4.9 7.5 38
Faktor plus 31 Aug–7 Sep 1,200 54.7 9.4 4.2 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1.7 3.5 (with SZS) 9.7 1.8 15[l] 45
Faktor plus 3–8 Aug 1,100 54.8 9.4 4.3 - (with SZS) (with SZS) 1.8 3.6 (with SZS) 9.6 - 16.5[m] 45.2
SZS and SPAS formed
NSPM 12–19 Jul 1,000 50 9.3 3 - 2.2 2.3 - 1.6 2.9 6.3[n] - 22.4 40.7
Faktor plus 1–6 Jul 1,200 54.8 8.8 4.3 - 3.2 2.8 1.3 2.4 3.2 5.2[n] - 14[o] 46
Faktor plus 1–7 Jun 1,200 55.3 9.4 2.7 - 3.6 3 1.3 1.6 3.5 - - 19.6[p] 45.9
Faktor plus 2–6 May 1,040 56.9 9.6 2.8 - 3.5 3 1.3 1.8 3.6 - - 17.5[q] 47.3
Faktor plus 6 April 1,100 56.7 9.5 2.6 1 3.8 2.8 1.3 2 3.4 - - 16.9[r] 47.2
Faktor plus 8 March - 54 9.8 2.9 1.7 3.5 2.8 1.2 3.9 3 - - 17.2[s] 44.2
Faktor plus 23–29 Jan 1,200 53.1 10 4.2 2.8 6.9 3 - 4.8 3.9 - - 11.3[t] 43.1
NSPM[u] 24 Dec–4 Jan 1,200 45.6 8.9 4.5 4.7 9 5 - 11.1 3.1 - - 8.1 34.5
2018
Faktor plus 15–25 Dec 1,200 53 10 5.2 3.1 7 3 - 5.7 3.8 - - 9.2 43
Faktor plus 28 Nov–5 Dec 1,200 53 9.5 4 2.8 6.9 3 - 5.6 3.8 - - 11.4 43.5
NSPM[u] 1–10 Nov 1,200 44.2 8.8 5.5 2.9 5.6 5.2 - 16.2 3.5 - - 8.1 28
Faktor plus 9 Nov - 52.9 9.1 4.2 2.6 6.7 3.2 - 7.2 3.3 - - 10.8 43.8
NS formed
Ipsos 23 Oct - 55 8 6 3 4 5 - 8 - - - 11 47
Faktor plus 4–8 Oct 1,250 52.8 9.2 4.1 2.3 6.9 3 - 7.8 - - - 13.9[v] 43.6
NSPM 20–27 Aug 1,000 46.4 9.8 5.3 2.5 4.5 4.4 - 10.3 3.1[w] - - 13.7[x] 36.1
Faktor plus 5–10 Aug 1,200 52.1 9.7 4 2.9 7.9 2.8 - 7 - - - 13.6 42.4
Ninamedia 17–28 Jul 1,061 52.1 8 5.1 3.1 4.1 5 - 7.2 - - - 15.4 44.1
Ipsos 31 Jul - 54 8 5 4 5 5 - 11 - - - 8 43
Faktor plus 30 Jun–6 Jul 1,200 52.2 9.8 4 2.8 8 2.9 - 7.9 - - - 12.4 42.4
Faktor plus 26–31 May 1,100 52 9.1 5.1 3.7 7.4 2.7 - 8.5 - - - 11.5 42.9
NSPM 10–17 May 1,000 47.7 10.1 5.2 2.5 6.4 3.9 - 10.5 4.9[w] - - 8.8 37.2
Ipsos 19–24 Apr - 55 8 5 2 5 4 - 11 - - - 10 44
2017 presidential election (Vučić from SNS wins), PSG formed
Faktor plus 4–7 Mar 1,200 50.6 10.6 8 6.5 7.5 4 - - - - - 12.8 40
Faktor plus 24–31 Jan 1,200 51.2 10.5 8.7 7 6.8 3.8 - - - - - 12 40.7
2017
NSPM 23–30 Dec 1,350 51.1 10.8 7.9 7.1 4.9 4.3 1.2 - - - - 12.7 40.3
Faktor plus 16–26 Dec 1,200 51.4 10 8.8 7 6.5 - - - - - - 16.3 41.4
Faktor plus 9–16 Nov 1,100 51.5 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.5 3.3 - - - - - 13.4 41.1
Faktor plus 6–11 Oct 1,200 51.4 10.6 8.9 7 5 3.2 2.1 - - - - 11.8 40.8
Faktor plus 1–8 Sep 1,200 51 10.1 8 6.3 4.8 3.1 2 - - - - 14.7 40.9
Faktor plus 1–8 Aug 1,100 51.9 10.3 7.1 7 5 3 2.3 - - - - 13.4 41.6
NSPM 11–22 Jul 1,100 47.5 10 7.1 6 6.7 4.1 2.8 - - - - 15.8 37.5
Faktor plus 24–30 Jun 1,200 51.8 10.1 7.7 7.4 5 5.3 (with Dveri) - - - - 12.7 41.7
Faktor plus 30 May 1,200 50.1 10.8 8 7.5 5.5 5.6 (with Dveri) - - - - 12.5 39.3
2016 election 24 Apr 16 N/A 48.25 10.95 8.10 6.02 6.02 5.04 (with Dveri) - - - - 9.24 37.3

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Including 15.8% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
  2. ^ Including 22.8% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
  3. ^ Including 19.2% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
  4. ^ Including 3.5% for the PUPS, and 2.3% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  5. ^ Including 17.9% for the opposition, but still undecided as to whom.
  6. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, and 2.3% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  7. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  8. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  9. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, and 2.1% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  10. ^ Including 1.4% for the PUPS, and 2% for the SNP. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  11. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  12. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.3% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  13. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.4% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  14. ^ a b Hypothetical rating of a party expected to be formed by Dragan Djilas, former Mayor of Belgrade
  15. ^ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.8% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  16. ^ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.7% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  17. ^ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.5% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  18. ^ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.8% for the SDPS, and 1.3% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  19. ^ Including 3.2% for the PUPS, 3% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  20. ^ Including 3.2% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  21. ^ a b Poll was conducted in Belgrade, on the matter of voting preferences regarding state level government
  22. ^ Including 3.1% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  23. ^ a b Hypothetical rating
  24. ^ Including 1.7% for the SDPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2020: elections in the Western Balkans". RFE. 1 January 2020. (in Serbian)
  2. ^ McLaughlin, Daniel. "Young Serbs vow to stop 'dictatorship' of president-elect Vucic". The Irish Times. Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  3. ^ "Presidential election 2017, OSCE/ODIHR Election Assessment Mission Final Report". Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Retrieved 18 December 2018.
  4. ^ "Analitičari: Motiv da Vučić od 2019. napravi izbornu godinu - Kosovo (in Serbian)".
  5. ^ a b "Serbia 2019 Report" (PDF). European Commission. Retrieved 29 May 2019.
  6. ^ "Serbia: thousands rally in fourth week of anti-government protests".
  7. ^ "Protests against President Vucic spreads throughout Serbia". France 24. 9 February 2019.
  8. ^ "Serbian protest organizers name negotiators, define issues for talks". N1. Retrieved 20 April 2019.
  9. ^ "Civil protests' experts: No conditions for free and fair elections in Serbia". N1. Retrieved 3 June 2019.
  10. ^ "Predstavljanje preporuka stručnog tima protesta #1od5miliona". poceloje.rs. Retrieved 3 June 2019.
  11. ^ "Organizatori protesta „1 od 5 miliona" pozvali na bojkot izbora (VIDEO)". Danas (in Serbian). Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  12. ^ a b "First EP-mediated dialogue in Serbia: Part of the opposition refuses to participate". European Western Balkans. Retrieved 11 October 2019.
  13. ^ "Conditions for fair elections in Serbia not established after three rounds of dialogue". European Western Balkans. Retrieved 19 January 2019.
  14. ^ "3rd Inter-Party Dialogue in the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia On Improving the Conditions for Holding Parliamentary Elections". europa.rs/. Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  15. ^ "Saša Janković osnovao pokret Slobodni građani Srbije". RTS. 21 May 2017. Retrieved 13 November 2017.
  16. ^ "Janković osniva pokret".
  17. ^ "Osnovana narodna stranka".
  18. ^ "Narodna stranka i PSG počeli pregovore o saradnji".
  19. ^ "Pocetak ujedinjenja opozicije? (In Serbian)".
  20. ^ Electoral system IPU