Next Tasmanian state election

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Next Tasmanian state election
Tasmania
← 2014 On or Before 19 May 2018

All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Will Hodgman apples cropped.jpg Cassy O'Connor (cropped).jpg
Leader Will Hodgman Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 17 March 2017 12 June 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Denison
Last election 15 seats 7 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase6 Increase10
Vote @ 2014 51.2% 27.3% 13.8%
Vote Polling 37% 34% 16%
PP Polling 37% 48%

Incumbent Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal



The next Tasmanian state election for Australia's island state of Tasmania must be held no later than 19 May 2018[1] to elect all 25 members to the five divisions of the Tasmanian House of Assembly (the Lower House of the bicameral Tasmanian Parliament). The first term incumbent Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Will Hodgman, will seek a second four-year term and will be challenged by the Labor opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Rebecca White, and the Greens, who lost their official parliamentary party status at the 2014 election, currently led by Cassy O'Connor.

The House of Assembly has five multi-member divisions with five members each for a total of 25 seats, 13 of which are required for a majority. The divisions correspond in name and boundaries to the five federal electorates for the Australian House of Representatives. The election will be conducted using the Hare-Clark electoral system, and a candidate is declared elected when they reach 16.7% (one-sixth) of the total formal vote during counting.

House of Assembly elections are not tied to the election dates for the Legislative Council (Upper House) which occur in May each year for two or three of the 15 divisions, completing a fixed periodic cycle over six years. Elections in Tasmania are conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date[edit]

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, terms in the Tasmanian House of Assembly end a maximum of four years from the return of the writs following the previous election, in this case 29 March 2014. Technically, the election date is not fixed and can be called at any time with the agreement of the Governor of Tasmania. The Electoral Act 2004 governs the process of elections.[1][2] The Governor must issue writs between five and ten days after the Premier of Tasmania calls an election.[3] Candidate nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[4] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after candidate nominations close.[5] Accordingly, on the assumption that the lower house runs to full term in 2018, the Saturday election date will be between 28 April and 19 May inclusive.[1]

Background[edit]

The results of the previous election saw a landslide victory for the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the incumbent Labor government led by Lara Giddings, which governed with the support of the Greens. The election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens losing their parliamentary party status.

Following the 2014 Labor loss, Giddings resigned as leader of the Labor Party and was succeeded by Bryan Green. Green resigned Labor leadership on 17 March 2017, and Rebecca White was elected leader unopposed.[6]

Retiring MPs[edit]

Labor[edit]

Polling[edit]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[9] Polling is also conducted irregularly by ReachTEL and by Roy Morgan Research, the latter with sample sizes of typically a few hundred voters.[10]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Firm Political parties
Lib ALP Grn ONP JLN IND/OTH
August 2017 EMRS 37% 34% 16% - 5% 7%
May 2017 EMRS [11] 39% 34% 15% 3% - 9%
March 2017 EMRS 35% 29% 19% 6% - 11%
November 2016 ReachTEL [12] 45.5% 30.9% 15.1% - - 8.5%
November 2016 EMRS 40% 28% 18% - - 11%
October 2016 Morgan 39% 33% 16% - - 12%
August 2016 EMRS 41% 31% 15% - - 13%
August 2016 Morgan 37.5% 36% 15.5% - - 11%
July 2016 EMRS 37% 32% 17% - - 14%
May 2016 EMRS 41% 29% 21% - - 9%
May 2016 Morgan 41% 34.5% 17% - - 7.5%
March 2016 Morgan 40% 33% 21.5% - - 5.5%
February 2016 EMRS 46% 27% 18% - - 9%
November 2015 EMRS 48% 25% 20% - - 7%
August 2015 EMRS 40% 29% 21% - - 9%
May 2015 EMRS 46% 29% 19% - - 6%
February 2015 EMRS 42% 34% 15% - 1%1 8%
November 2014 EMRS 42% 31% 19% - 2%1 6%
August 2014 EMRS 46% 33% 16% - 2%1 4%
May 2014 EMRS 48% 25% 21% - 3%1 3%
2014 election 51.2% 27.3% 13.8% - 5.0%1 1.3%
Feb 2014 EMRS 44% 20% 15% - 5%1 3%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
1 Palmer United Party (PUP)
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman
Labor
White
August 2017 37% 48%
May 2017 [11] 42% 39%
March 2017 52% 20%1
November 2016 [13] 59.8% 40.2%1
October 2016 55.5% 44.5%1
July 2016 48% 25%1
February 2016 52% 21%1
November 2015 56% 19%1
August 2015 49% 21%1
May 2015 52% 24%1
February 2015 48% 26%1
November 2014 50% 22%1
August 2014 51% 25%1
May 2014 54% 22%1
2014 election
Feb 2014 48% 21%2
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Bryan Green.
2 Lara Giddings.

External links[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c ‘So when is the next election?’: APH.gov.au 1 September 2016
  2. ^ "2013/2014 Tasmanian Electoral Commission Annual Report" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. 
  3. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  4. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  5. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  6. ^ "Green out, White in for Tasmanian Labor, the ABC understands". ABC News. 17 March 2017. Retrieved 17 March 2017. 
  7. ^ Wisbey, Michelle (14 May 2017). "Giddings to leave politics". The Examiner. Retrieved 15 May 2017. 
  8. ^ Hansen, Ben. "TONIGHT: @WINNews_Tas speaks with David Llewellyn after he announced he's stepping down from politics after 28 years. Details 6pm. #politas". WIN News. Retrieved 15 May 2017. 
  9. ^ EMRS.com.au website.
  10. ^ [1], Roy Morgan Research, "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW while Palaszczuk consolidates lead in Queensland and ALP preferred in Tasmania", October 10 2016.
  11. ^ a b State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS May 2017
  12. ^ [2], William Bowe, "State polling miscellany", November 2015.
  13. ^ [3], Matt Smith, "Green, White, Bacon, Giddings? Exclusive polling reveals who Tasmanians think should lead the Labor party, Townsville Bulletin (online), Nov 18 2016