Next Tasmanian state election

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Next Tasmanian state election
Tasmania
← 2014 On or Before 26 May 2018

All 25 seats in the House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Will Hodgman apples cropped.jpg Cassy O'Connor (cropped).jpg
Leader Will Hodgman Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 17 March 2017 12 June 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Denison
Last election 15 seats 7 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase6 Increase10
2014 vote 51.2% 27.4% 13.8%
BP Polling 52% 20%

Incumbent Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal



The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held on or before 2018 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The first-term Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Will Hodgman, will attempt to win a second term. The Labor opposition is led by Bryan Green, while the Greens, who lost their official parliamentary party status at the 2014 election, are led by Cassy O'Connor. The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preferential voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date[edit]

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the term of the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 29 March 2014.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[2] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[3] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[4] meaning that the polling day cannot be earlier than Saturday 21 April and not later than Saturday 26 May 2018.

Background[edit]

The results of the previous election saw landslide victory for the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the incumbent Labor government led by Lara Giddings, governing with the support of the Greens. The election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens losing their parliamentary party status.

Polling[edit]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[5] Polling is also conducted irregularly by ReachTEL and by Roy Morgan Research, the latter with sample sizes of typically a few hundred voters.[6]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Firm Political parties
Lib ALP Grn ON PUP Ind/Others
March 2017 EMRS 35% 29% 19% 6% - 10%
November 2016 ReachTEL[7] 45.5% 30.9% 15.1% - - 8.5%
November 2016 EMRS 40% 28% 18% - - 11%
October 2016 Morgan 39% 33% 16% - - 12%
August 2016 EMRS 41% 31% 15% - - 13%
August 2016 Morgan 37.5% 36% 15.5% - - 11%
July 2016 EMRS 37% 32% 17% - - 14%
May 2016 EMRS 41% 29% 21% - - 9%
May 2016 Morgan 41% 34.5% 17% - - 7.5%
March 2016 Morgan 40% 33% 21.5% - - 5.5%
February 2016 EMRS 46% 27% 18% - - 9%
November 2015 EMRS 48% 25% 20% - - 7%
August 2015 EMRS 40% 29% 21% - - 9%
May 2015 EMRS 46% 29% 19% - - 6%
February 2015 EMRS 42% 34% 15% - 1% 8%
November 2014 EMRS 42% 31% 19% - 2% 6%
August 2014 EMRS 46% 33% 16% - 2% 4%
May 2014 EMRS 48% 25% 21% - 3% 3%
2014 election 51.2% 27.3% 13.8% - 5.0% 1.3%
Feb 2014 EMRS 44% 20% 15% - 5% 3%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman
Labor
Green
March 2017 52% 20%
November 2016 [8] 59.8% 40.2%
October 2016 55.5% 44.5%
July 2016 48% 25%
February 2016 52% 21%
November 2015 56% 19%
August 2015 49% 21%
May 2015 52% 24%
February 2015 48% 26%
November 2014 50% 22%
August 2014 51% 25%
May 2014 54% 22%
2014 election
Feb 2014 48% 21%1
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Lara Giddings.

External links[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2013/2014 Tasmanian Electoral Commission Annual Report" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. 
  2. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  3. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  4. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  5. ^ [1], EMRS, November 2015.
  6. ^ [2], Roy Morgan Research, "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW while Palaszczuk consolidates lead in Queensland and ALP preferred in Tasmania", October 10 2016.
  7. ^ [3], William Bowe, "State polling miscellany", November 2015.
  8. ^ [4], Matt Smith, "Green, White, Bacon, Giddings? Exclusive polling reveals who Tasmanians think should lead the Labor party, Townsville Bulletin (online), Nov 18 2016