Next Tasmanian state election

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Next Tasmanian state election

← 2018 Next

All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
  Will Hodgman apples cropped.jpg
Rebecca White MP.jpg
Cassy O'Connor (cropped).jpg
Leader Will Hodgman Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 17 March 2017 12 June 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Clark
Last election 13 seats; 50.26% 10 seats; 32.63% 2 seats; 10.30%
Seats needed Steady Increase3 Increase11

Incumbent Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal



The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held in or before 2022 to elect all 25 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

The incumbent Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Will Hodgman in his second four-year term, will attempt to win a third term against the Labor opposition, currently led by the Tasmanian Opposition Leader, Rebecca White. Also contesting the election will be the Greens, currently led by Cassy O'Connor.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preference instant-runoff voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date[edit]

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election. The writs for the 2018 Tasmanian state election were returned on 15 March 2018.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[2] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[3] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[4] meaning the election must take place by 14 May 2022.

Background[edit]

The previous election in 2018 saw the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman retain government, winning 13 seats compared to the Labor Party's 10 seats and the Greens with 2. Despite holding a one-seat majority, the Liberal Government's choice for Speaker was rejected by the Assembly shortly after the new parliament began sitting in May 2018.[5] Liberal member Sue Hickey was elected to the Speakership with the support of Labor and the Greens.[5] Hickey revealed she would vote independently on government bills though she has said she will "always support the Liberal Government" on confidence and supply.[5][6]

Polling[edit]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[7]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN IND/OTH
July 2019 EMRS[8] 38% 30% 16% 16%
May 2019 EMRS[8] 38% 34% 13% 15%
March 2019 EMRS[8] 38% 34% 14% 14%
20 December 2018 EMRS[9] 39% 35% 14% 12%
31 August 2018 EMRS[10] 36% 34% 16% 14%
10 May 2018 EMRS[11] 47% 30% 14% 8%
2018 election 50.3% 32.6% 10.3% 4.5%
27 February 2018 EMRS[12] 46% 34% 12% 7%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman
Labor
White
July 2019 40% 45%
May 2019 41% 43%
March 2019 41% 44%
December 2018 40% 46%
August 2018 36% 48%
May 2018 47% 41%
2018 election
January 2018 48% 41%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/Elections/e2018.html
  2. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  3. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  4. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  5. ^ a b c "New Speaker Sue Hickey distances herself from Liberal Party in dramatic first day of Parliament". ABC News. 1 May 2018.
  6. ^ "Speaker Sue Hickey departs from Liberal script to call for Glenorchy Council's rescue". ABC News. 22 May 2018.
  7. ^ EMRS.com.au website.
  8. ^ a b c "State Voting Intentions July 2019" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 6 August 2019.
  9. ^ www.emrs.com.au (PDF) https://www.emrs.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/EMRS-State-Voting-Intentions-Report-December-2018.pdf. Retrieved 26 December 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  10. ^ "State Voting Intentions August 2018" (PDF). emrs.com.au. 4 September 2018.
  11. ^ "State Voting Intentions May 2018" (PDF). 17 May 2018.
  12. ^ "Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.