Next United Kingdom general election

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Next United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 No later than 24 January 2025

All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader % Seats +/–
Conservative Rishi Sunak
Labour Keir Starmer
SNP Nicola Sturgeon
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey
DUP Jeffrey Donaldson
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald
Plaid Cymru Adam Price
SDLP Colum Eastwood
Alba Alex Salmond
Green Carla Denyer &
Adrian Ramsay
Alliance Naomi Long
Independent n/a
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Prime Minister before
Rishi Sunak
Conservative

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025. It will determine the 59th House of Commons.

Background[edit]

The next election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

The result of the 2019 United Kingdom general election and members in the House of Commons is given below.

Affiliation Members
Elected[1] Current[2] Change
Conservative[a] 365 355 Decrease 10
Labour[b] 202 195 Decrease 7
SNP 48 45 Decrease 3
Liberal Democrats 11 14 Increase 3
DUP 8 8 Steady
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 3 Decrease 1
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alba 0[c] 2 Increase 2
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Independent 0 15 Increase 15
Total 650 649 Decrease 1
Voting total[d] 639 638 Decrease 1
Vacant 0 1 Increase 1
Government majority 87[e] 68[f] Decrease 19

For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Ahead of this general election, HuffPost reported in March 2022 that the Labour Party had abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an "unlawful" practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[7]

Following the UK Supreme Court's decision, in November 2022, that a proposed second Scottish independence referendum is outside the competence of the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) announced her intention to treat the next general election as a de facto independence referendum.[8] Unionist parties have rejected this characterisation.[8]

Electoral system[edit]

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the fifteen-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[9] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews[edit]

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, was commenced in 2011, but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[10][11][12] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[13][14] and made their reports public a week later.[15][16][17][13] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[18]

A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[19][20]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[21][22] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[23] and the four Boundary Commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[24][25][26][27] They are required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[18] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

Date of the election[edit]

At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[28] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[29]

In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[30] In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. The Daily Telegraph reported that an election could be held in May or June 2023.[31][32] In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[33] On becoming Conservative leader in September 2022, Liz Truss said she would deliver "a great victory for the Conservative Party in 2024".[34]

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March and entered into force the same day. The Prime Minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." For the MPs elected in the 2019 United Kingdom general election, who first met on 17 December 2019, this means the fifth-anniversary date of 17 December 2024 and the latest possible polling day 25 working days later, which is 24 January 2025.[35][36]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election[edit]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Douglas Ross Moray 2017 Conservative 14 October 2021[37]
Alex Cunningham Stockton North 2010 Labour 25 November 2021[38]
Margaret Hodge Barking 1994 Labour 2 December 2021[39]
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 1979 Labour 4 December 2021[40]
Harriet Harman Camberwell and Peckham 1982 Labour 7 December 2021[41]
Alan Whitehead Southampton Test 1997 Labour 14 January 2022[42]
Charles Walker Broxbourne 2005 Conservative 1 February 2022[43]
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 1997 Labour 3 February 2022[44]
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[45]
Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central 2010 Labour 21 February 2022[46]
Rosie Winterton Doncaster Central 1997 Labour 27 February 2022[47]
Margaret Beckett Derby South 1974[g] Labour 25 March 2022[48]
Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty 2010 Conservative 9 April 2022[49]
Crispin Blunt Reigate 1997 Conservative 1 May 2022[50]
Mike Penning Hemel Hempstead 2005 Conservative 17 May 2022[51]
Adam Afriyie Windsor 2005 Conservative 22 July 2022[52]
Jon Cruddas Dagenham and Rainham 2001 Labour 28 July 2022[53]
Colleen Fletcher Coventry North East 2015 Labour 5 September 2022[54]
Alister Jack Dumfries and Galloway 2017 Conservative 7 November 2022[55]
Alok Sharma Reading West 2010 Conservative
Nadine Dorries Mid Bedfordshire 2005 Conservative
Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole 2010 Conservative 8 November 2022[56]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[57]
Chloe Smith Norwich North 2009 Conservative 22 November 2022[58][59]
William Wragg Hazel Grove 2015 Conservative
Gary Streeter South West Devon 1992 Conservative 25 November 2022[60][61]
Dehenna Davison Bishop Auckland 2019 Conservative
Chris Skidmore Kingswood 2010 Conservative 26 November 2022[62]
Sajid Javid Bromsgrove 2010 Conservative 2 December 2022[63]
Mark Pawsey Rugby 2010 Conservative 5 December 2022[64]
Matt Hancock West Suffolk 2010 Independent[h] 7 December 2022[65]
George Eustice Camborne and Redruth 2010 Conservative 18 January 2023[66]

Opinion polling[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The Government of the United Kingdom is headed by the Prime Minister, who is currently the leader of the Conservative Party, the largest party in the House of Commons.
  2. ^ Labour, as the largest party not in government, takes the role of Official Opposition. The Labour total includes 26 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[3]
  3. ^ At the time of the 2019 election the Alba Party did not exist.[4]
  4. ^ The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[5] the Speaker and three Deputy Speakers (two Conservative and one Labour) have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[6]
  5. ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting Deputy Speakers (363), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting Speaker and one Deputy Speaker (276).[2]
  6. ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting Deputy Speakers (353), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting Speaker and one Deputy Speaker (285).
  7. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Lincoln in the October 1974 election, the second held that year.
  8. ^ Elected as Conservative.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Election 2019: Results". BBC News. Retrieved 10 December 2022.
  2. ^ a b "State of the parties". parliament.uk. Retrieved 13 January 2023.
  3. ^ "About the Party". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 22 February 2019.
  4. ^ "Registrations – Alba Party". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 15 October 2022.
  5. ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  6. ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Retrieved 25 July 2018.
  7. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (7 March 2022). "Exclusive: Labour Drops All-Women Shortlists For Next General Election". HuffPost. Retrieved 26 March 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Next national election will be de facto vote on Scottish independence - Sturgeon". BBC News. Archived from the original on 23 November 2022. Retrieved 23 November 2022.
  9. ^ "Our Plan - Conservative Manifesto 2019". Conservative Party. Retrieved 17 December 2019.
  10. ^ "Boundary review launched". Boundary Commission for England. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  11. ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  12. ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  13. ^ a b "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 16 February 2016. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  14. ^ "Towards final recommendations (and beyond)". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  15. ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for England. Boundary Commission for England. Archived from the original on 10 September 2018. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  16. ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  17. ^ "2018 Review of Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Wales. Archived from the original on 18 October 2016. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  18. ^ a b "Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020". Archived from the original on 6 August 2021.
  19. ^ Jones, Ian [@ian_a_jones] (10 September 2018). "New constituency boundaries could have given the Tories a majority of 16 at the last election (projection: Rallings/Thrasher)" (Tweet). Retrieved 30 October 2019 – via Twitter.
  20. ^ "New parliamentary map would have given Tories a majority of 16 at last election". ITV News. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  21. ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" (PDF). parliament.uk.
  22. ^ Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  23. ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
  24. ^ "2023 Review launched". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  25. ^ "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  26. ^ "2023 Review". Boundary Commisison for Wales. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  27. ^ "2023 Review: Electoral Quota and Allocation of Constituencies Announced". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 5 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  28. ^ Kettle, Martin (12 December 2019). "If the exit poll is right, this election will transform British politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  29. ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
  30. ^ "Government to fulfil manifesto commitment and scrap Fixed-term Parliaments Act". GOV.UK. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
  31. ^ Hope, Christopher; Diver, Tony (15 September 2021). "Exclusive: Get ready for a general election, says Oliver Dowden". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 11 January 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  32. ^ Ferguson, Emily (16 September 2021). "MPs told to prepare for 2023 general election as fallout from brutal reshuffle continues". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  33. ^ Mason, Rowena (18 March 2022). "Boris Johnson to launch two-year election campaign in May". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
  34. ^ Jones, Ian (5 September 2022). "Truss signals possible general election in 2024". Evening Standard. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
  35. ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022".
  36. ^ "Representation of the People Act 1983".
  37. ^ Malik, Paul (14 October 2021). "Westminster boundary shake-up will impact all Courier voters'". The Courier. Retrieved 14 October 2021.
  38. ^ "Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham to retire at next election". BBC News. 25 November 2021. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  39. ^ "Labour's Margaret Hodge to step down as MP for Barking". BBC News. 2 December 2021. Retrieved 2 December 2021.
  40. ^ Prest, Victoria (4 December 2021). "Barry Sheerman to stand down as Huddersfield MP after 40 years". YorkshireLive. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
  41. ^ Prest, Victoria (7 December 2021). "Labour MP Harriet Harman to stand down at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 7 December 2021.
  42. ^ "Southampton Test Labour MP Alan Whitehead to step down". BBC News. 14 January 2022. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
  43. ^ "Broxbourne's Conservative MP to quit at next election". BBC News. 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  44. ^ Merritt, Anita (3 February 2022). "Exeter MP Ben Bradshaw is stepping down after 25 years". DevonLive. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  45. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  46. ^ Kessen, David (21 February 2022). "Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield to stand down from Parliament at next general election". Sheffield Star.
  47. ^ Hennessey, Ted (27 February 2022). "Deputy Commons speaker stepping down as Labour MP at next election". The Independent. Archived from the original on 18 June 2022.
  48. ^ Ovens, Ruth (25 March 2022). "Dame Margaret Beckett announces she will not stand as MP in next election". Derbyshire Live. Retrieved 25 March 2022.
  49. ^ "Nigel Adams: Selby and Ainsty MP to stand down at election". BBC News. 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  50. ^ "Crispin Blunt marks 25 Years as Member of Parliament for Reigate". Crispin Blunt MP.
  51. ^ "Hemel Hempstead MP Sir Mike Penning to retire at next election". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  52. ^ "Windsor MP Adam Afriyie to stand down at next general election". BBC News. 22 July 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
  53. ^ Lynch, Ben (1 August 2022). "Jon Cruddas, MP for Rainham and Dagenham, to step down at next general election". Romford Recorder. Retrieved 12 August 2022.
  54. ^ Brown, Ellie (5 September 2022). "Coventry MP to stand down at next general election". CoventryLive. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
  55. ^ Adu, Aletha; Walker, Peter (8 November 2022). "Tory MPs nominated for peerages to delay accepting them". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 November 2022.
  56. ^ "Bye Bye Brigg and Goole". 8 November 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  57. ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  58. ^ "Ex-Cabinet minister Chloe Smith to stand down as MP at next election". Redditch Advertiser. 22 November 2022. Retrieved 22 November 2022.
  59. ^ "William Wragg: Tory MP will not stand at the next election". BBC News. 22 November 2022. Retrieved 23 November 2022.
  60. ^ Gary Streeter MP [@garystreeterSWD] (25 November 2022). "Today I've announced that I will not be seeking re-election at the next general election. It has been an honour and privilege to serve the people of South West Devon and I will continue to do so until the next election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  61. ^ "Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison will not stand at next election". ITV News. 25 November 2022. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
  62. ^ PA (26 November 2022). "Chris Skidmore ninth Tory MP to set exit plan as party hit with dire opinion polls". the Guardian. Retrieved 26 November 2022.
  63. ^ Sajid Javid MP [@sajidjavid] (2 December 2022). "After much reflection I have decided that I will not be standing again at the next General Election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  64. ^ "Rugby Conservative MP Mark Pawsey to step down". BBC News. 5 December 2022. Retrieved 5 December 2022.
  65. ^ Ferguson, Emily (7 December 2022). "Matt Hancock to quit as MP before next election and will instead 'explore new ways to communicate with people'". i news. Retrieved 7 December 2022.
  66. ^ "Former environment secretary George Eustice to step down at next election". Sky News. Retrieved 18 January 2023.