Western Australian state election, 2017

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Western Australian state election, 2017
Western Australia
2013 ←
11 March 2017

All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
  Colin Barnett, Remembrance Day 2012 (crop).png Mark McGowan, shark cull protest (crop).png No image.svg
Leader Colin Barnett Mark McGowan Terry Redman
Party Liberal Labor Nationals WA
Leader since 6 August 2008 (2008-08-06) 23 January 2012 (2012-01-23) 19 November 2013 (2013-11-19)
Leader's seat Cottesloe Rockingham Warren-Blackwood
Last election 31 seats 21 seats 7 seats
Current seats 30 seats 21 seats 7 seats
Seats needed Steady0 Increase9 Increase23
TPP @ 2013 57.3% 42.7%
TPP polling 47% 53%
BP polling 36% 41%

Incumbent Premier

Colin Barnett
Liberal

The 2017 Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect 59 members to the Legislative Assembly and 36 members to the Legislative Council.

Date of election[edit]

On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms.[1][2]

Seats held[edit]

Lower house[edit]

At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.

Upper house[edit]

At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.

Retiring MPs[edit]

Members who have announced they will not re-nominate at the 2017 election:

Liberal[edit]

National[edit]

2013 pendulum[edit]

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis.[6]

Liberal/National seats
Eyre Graham Jacobs LIB 0.4% v NAT
Belmont Glenys Godfrey LIB 0.9%
Forrestfield Nathan Morton LIB 2.1%
Perth Eleni Evangel LIB 2.6%
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT 3.1% v LIB
Joondalup Jan Norberger LIB 4.5%
Morley Ian Britza LIB 4.7%
Moore Shane Love NAT 5.9% v LIB
Swan Hills Frank Alban LIB 5.9%
Kalgoorlie Wendy Duncan NAT 6.3% v LIB
Balcatta Chris Hatton LIB 7.3%
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT 7.9% v LIB
Jandakot Joe Francis LIB 8.1%
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB 9.2%
Mount Lawley Michael Sutherland LIB 9.4%
North West Central Vince Catania NAT 9.7% v LIB
Kalamunda John Day LIB 10.5%
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB 10.9% v NAT
Wanneroo Paul Miles LIB 11.1%
Pilbara Brendon Grylls NAT 11.5%
Murray-Wellington Murray Cowper LIB 12.0%
Dawesville Kim Hames LIB 12.7%
Bunbury John Castrilli LIB 13.1%
Kingsley Andrea Mitchell LIB 14.8%
Darling Range Tony Simpson LIB 15.3%
Southern River Peter Abetz LIB 17.0%
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB 17.3%
Bateman Matt Taylor LIB 17.8%
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB 18.1%
Ocean Reef Albert Jacob LIB 19.0%
Hillarys Rob Johnson LIB 19.0%
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB 19.1%
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB 20.2%
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB 20.9%
South Perth John McGrath LIB 21.1%
Vasse Troy Buswell LIB 21.2%
Alfred Cove Dean Nalder LIB 23.6%
Wagin Terry Waldron NAT 26.9% v LIB
Labor seats
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP 0.1%
Collie-Preston Mick Murray ALP 0.1%
Butler John Quigley ALP 1.8%
West Swan Rita Saffioti ALP 1.9%
Albany Peter Watson ALP 2.0%
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP 2.1%
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP 2.4%
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP 2.6% v IND
Gosnells Chris Tallentire ALP 2.9%
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP 3.1%
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP 4.1%
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP 4.1%
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP 4.6%
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP 5.1%
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP 5.1%
Mandurah David Templeman ALP 7.7%
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP 7.9%
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP 8.8%
Armadale Tony Buti ALP 9.6%
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP 10.6%
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP 13.2%

Polling[edit]

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
Lib Nat ALP Grn Oth Lib/Nat ALP
Oct–Dec 2015 Newspoll[7] 37% 5% 42% 10% 6% 47% 53%
9–15 Oct 2015 Morgan[8] 37.5% 4.5% 32% 13% 13% 51.5% 48.5%
28–31 Aug 2015 Morgan 35% 7% 34% 15% 9% 50% 50%
Apr–Jun 2015 Newspoll 33% 7% 33% 14% 13% 48% 52%
Jan–Mar 2015 Newspoll 34% 6% 35% 14% 11% 48% 52%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 34% 8% 33% 15% 10% 50% 50%
Jul–Sep 2014 Newspoll 35% 6% 31% 15% 13% 50% 50%
Apr–Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 6% 27% 17% 16% 50% 50%
Oct–Dec 2013 Newspoll 36% 8% 33% 13% 10% 51% 49%
2013 election 47.1% 6.1% 33.1% 8.4% 5.3% 57.3% 42.7%
4–7 Mar 2013 Newspoll 48% 6% 32% 8% 6% 59.5% 40.5%
Better premier polling^
Liberal
Barnett
Labor
McGowan
Oct–Dec 2015[7] 36% 41%
Apr–Jun 2015 37% 43%
Jan–Mar 2015 38% 44%
Oct–Dec 2014 39% 40%
Jul–Sep 2014 38% 41%
Apr–Jun 2014 36% 43%
Oct–Dec 2013 37% 43%
2013 election
4–7 Mar 2013 52% 31%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Satisfaction polling^
Barnett McGowan
Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Oct–Dec 2015[7] 33% 54% 47% 32%
Apr–Jun 2015 36% 57% 49% 33%
Jan–Mar 2015 38% 53% 53% 28%
Oct–Dec 2014 37% 49% 48% 27%
Jul–Sep 2014 32% 56% 47% 29%
Apr–Jun 2014 34% 56% 49% 31%
Oct–Dec 2013 34% 54% 51% 22%
2013 election
4–7 Mar 2013 51% 36% 49% 29%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "New laws fix state election dates". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012. 
  2. ^ Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012. 
  3. ^ "Joe Spagnolo: Hunt for WA Liberal leader to replace Colin Barnett after deputy Kim Hames confirms he will not contest next state election". Perth Now. 2 August 2014. Retrieved 9 August 2014. 
  4. ^ "Waldron to retire from politics". The West Australian. 25 November 2014. Retrieved 25 November 2014. 
  5. ^ "MP Wendy Duncan reflects on career as prospective candidates circle in Kalgoorlie". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015. 
  6. ^ Antony Green (23 April 2013). "2013 WA Election - Final results and New Pendulum". Retrieved 3 August 2013. 
  7. ^ a b c Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia - The Poll Bludger 4 January 2016
  8. ^ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.