Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016

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Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016
← 2011 5 May 2016 2017 →

All 108 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
55 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout 54.9%[1] (Decrease0.8%)

  First party Second party Third party
  Arlene Foster Martin McGuiness Mike Nesbitt
Leader Arlene Foster Martin McGuinness Mike Nesbitt
Party DUP Sinn Féin UUP
Leader since 17 December 2015 8 May 2007 31 March 2012
Leader's seat Fermanagh and South Tyrone Foyle Strangford
Last election 38 seats, 30.0% 29 seats, 26.9% 16 seats, 13.2%
Seats won 38 28 16
Seat change Steady Decrease1 Steady
Popular vote 202,567 166,785 87,302
Percentage 29.2% 24.0% 12.6%
Swing Decrease0.8% Decrease2.9% Decrease0.6%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Colum Eastwood David Ford Steven Agnew
Leader Colum Eastwood David Ford Steven Agnew
Party SDLP Alliance Green (NI)
Leader since 14 November 2015 6 October 2001 10 January 2011
Leader's seat Foyle South Antrim North Down
Last election 14 seats, 14.2% 8 seats, 7.7% 1 seat, 0.9%
Seats won 12 8 2
Seat change Decrease2 Steady Increase1
Popular vote 83,364 48,447 18,718
Percentage 12.0% 7.0% 2.7%
Swing Decrease2.2% Decrease0.7% Increase1.8%

  Seventh party Eighth party
  Eamonn McCann.jpg Jim Allister
Leader Eamonn McCann [2] Jim Allister
Party People Before Profit TUV
Leader since N/A 7 December 2007
Leader's seat Foyle North Antrim
Last election 0 seats, 0.8% 1 seat, 2.4%
Seats won 2 1
Seat change Increase2 Steady
Popular vote 13,761 23,776
Percentage 2.0% 3.4%
Swing Increase1.2% Increase1.0%

Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2016 - Results by Constituency.svg
Seats won by each party per constituency. Voters elect 6 assembly members from the 18 constituencies.

First Minister and deputy First Minister before election

Arlene Foster (DUP) &
Martin McGuinness (SF)

First Minister and deputy First Minister
after election

Arlene Foster (DUP) &
Martin McGuinness (SF)

The 2016 election to the Northern Ireland Assembly was held on 5 May 2016. It was the fifth election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998. 1,281,595 individuals were registered to vote in the election (representing an increase of 5.9% compared to the previous Assembly election).[3] Turnout in the 2016 Assembly election was 703,744 (54.9%), a decline of less than one percentage point from the previous Assembly Election in 2011, but down 15 percentage points from the first election to the Assembly held in 1998.[4]

As in the 2007 and 2011 elections, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin won the most seats, with the DUP winning 38 and Sinn Féin winning 28 of the available 108 seats. The Ulster Unionist Party won 16 seats, the Social Democratic and Labour Party 12 and the Alliance 8, while two seats were won by the Green Party and People Before Profit. The Traditional Unionist Voice and an independent candidate each won one seat.

Change of date[edit]

Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, elections to the Assembly were originally for a four-year term; thus there would have been an election due in May 2015, four years after the 2011 election. Following the introduction of the UK Fixed Term Parliaments Act, this date would have clashed with the 2015 UK general election.[5] The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections were postponed for a year to 2016 to avoid this clash.[6]

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.[7] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth (rather than fourth, as previously) calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected.[8]

End of dual mandate[edit]

The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 also ends the practice of dual mandate, prohibiting someone being elected to the assembly who is also a member of the House of Commons or Dáil Éireann.[8] At the time the Act was passed, there were three such dual-members: the DUP's Sammy Wilson (MP for East Antrim and MLA for East Antrim) and Gregory Campbell (MP for East Londonderry and MLA for East Londonderry) and the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell (MP for Belfast South and MLA for Belfast South).[9] Wilson and McDonnell resigned from the Assembly after being re-elected to the House of Commons in the 2015 election. Campbell, who was also re-elected as an MP, is retiring from the Assembly at this election.[10]

Earlier dissolution[edit]

There are several circumstances in which the Assembly could be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

Dissolution motion[edit]

Under section 32 of the 1998 Act, the Assembly can be dissolved if a resolution to such an effect is passed by the Assembly, with support of 72 or more members.[citation needed]

Failure to elect the First or deputy First Ministers[edit]

The Act provides that if the Assembly fails to elect either the First Minister or deputy First Minister within six weeks, an election is called. Since the enactment of the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006, the First Minister has been nominated by the largest party overall, and the deputy First Minister has been nominated by the single largest party in the largest community designation ("Nationalist", "Unionist" or "Other") to which the largest party overall does not belong.[citation needed]

New Executive Departments[edit]

It was proposed[11] that after the May 2016 Election there be a reduction in the number of ministries and departments. The amendments were:

° The Department of Education remains the same.

Candidates[edit]

Nominations opened on 30 March 2016 for the assembly election.[12] A full list of candidates is available.[13][14]

Parties standing in more than one constituency were:

Various independents and smaller parties also stood.

Members not seeking re-election[edit]

Alliance[edit]

DUP[edit]

NI21[edit]

SDLP[edit]

Sinn Féin[edit]

UUP[edit]

UKIP[edit]

Results[edit]

Party Leader Seats Votes Seats
Candi-
dates
won Change
from
2011
First
Preference
votes
First
Pref. %
Change
from
2011
on NI Execu-
tive
Change
from
2015
DUP Arlene Foster 44 38 0 202,567 29.2% -0.8% 5 +1
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 39 28 -1 166,785 24.0% -2.9% 4 +1
UUP Mike Nesbitt 33 16 0 87,302 12.6% -0.6% 0 -1
SDLP Colum Eastwood 24 12 -2 83,368 12.0% -2.2% 0 -1
Alliance David Ford 23 8 0 48,447 7.0% -0.7% 0 -1
TUV Jim Allister 15 1 0 23,776 3.4% +1.0% - -
Green (NI) Steven Agnew 18 2 +1 18,718 2.7% +1.8% - -
People Before Profit Eamonn McCann 3 2 +2 13,761 2.0% +1.2% - -
UKIP Nigel Farage 13 - 10,109 1.5% +0.8%
PUP Billy Hutchinson 6 - 5,955 0.9% +0.3%
NI Conservatives David Cameron 12 - 2,554 0.4% N/A
CISTA Paul Birch 4 - 2,510 0.4% N/A
Labour Alternative Owen McCracken 3 - 1,939 0.3% N/A
NI Labour[30] Kathryn Johnston 8 - 1,577 0.2% N/A
Workers' Party John Lowry 4 - 1,565 0.2% ±0.0
South Belfast Unionists William Dickson 1 - 351 0.0% N/A
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson 1 - 224 0.0% N/A
Democracy First Frazer McCammond 1 - 124 0.0% N/A
Northern Ireland First Geoff Dowey 1 - 32 0.0% N/A
Independents N/A 23 1 0 22,650 3.3% +0.9% 1 +1
Seats total and Valid Votes 108   694,314 98.7% 10 -
Invalid Votes   9,430 1.3%
Total valid poll   703,744 100.0%
Electorate and turnout   1,281,595 54.9%
Notes:
Results from Raymond Russell, "Election Report: Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 5 May 2016", Northern Ireland Assembly
  • Total valid poll 703,744. Electorate: 1,281,595; turnout: 54.9%.

Voting summary[edit]

First preference vote
DUP
29.2%
Sinn Féin
24.0%
UUP
12.6%
SDLP
12.0%
Alliance
7.0%
TUV
3.4%
Green (NI)
2.7%
PBPA
2.0%
UKIP
1.5%
PUP
0.9%
Others
1.6%
Independent
3.3%

Seats summary[edit]

Assembly seats
DUP
35.2%
Sinn Féin
25.9%
UUP
14.8%
SDLP
11.1%
Alliance
7.4%
Green (NI)
1.9%
PBPA
1.9%
TUV
0.9%
Independent
0.9%

Distribution of seats by constituency[edit]

Party affiliation of the six Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the general election of 7 May 2015 (under the "first past the post" method).

(The constituencies are arranged here in rough geographical order around Lough Neagh from Antrim to Londonderry. To see them in alphabetical order, click the small square icon after "Constituency"; to restore this geographical order, click the icon after "No." at the left.)

No. 2015 MP Constituency Candi-
dates
Total
seats
PBP
Green
Sinn
Féin
SDLP
Alli-
ance
UUP
DUP
TUV
Ind.
Seat
gained
by
Seat
formerly
held by
1 DUP North Antrim - 6 - - 1 - - 1 3 1 - - -
2 DUP East Antrim - 6 - - 1 - 1 1 3 - - - -
3 UUP South Antrim - 6 - - 1 - 1 1 3 - - - -
4 DUP Belfast North - 6 - - 2 1 - - 3 - - - -
5 SF Belfast West - 6 1 - 4 1 - - - - - PBP SF
6 SDLP Belfast South - 6 - 1 1 1 1 - 2 - -
Green
DUP
SDLP
UUP
7 DUP Belfast East - 6 - - - - 2 1 3 - - - -
8 Ind. North Down - 6 - 1 - - 1 1 3 - - - -
9 DUP Strangford - 6 - - - - 1 2 3 - - - -
10 DUP Lagan Valley - 6 - - - - 1 2 3 - - UUP DUP
11 DUP Upper Bann - 6 - - 2 - - 2 2 - - SF SDLP
12 SDLP South Down - 6 - - 2 2 - 1 1 - - - -
13 SF Newry and Armagh - 6 - - 3 1 - 1 1 - - - -
14 UUP Fermanagh & South Tyrone - 6 - - 2 1 - 1 2 - - SDLP SF
15 SF West Tyrone - 6 - - 3 1 - 1 1 - - - -
16 SF Mid Ulster - 6 - - 3 1 - 1 1 - - - -
17 SDLP Foyle - 6 1 - 2 2 - - 1 - - PBP SDLP
18 DUP East Londonderry - 6 - - 1 1 - - 3 - 1 - -
18 Total - 108 2 2 28 12 8 16 38 1 1
  Change since dissolution - - +2 +1 –1 –2 - +3 - - –1 –1 –1
  Assembly at dissolution - 108 - 1 29 14 8 13 38 1 2 1 UKIP 1 NI21
  Change during Assembly term - - - - - - - –3 - - +1 +1 +1
  Elected on 5 May 2011 218 108 - 1 29 14 8 16 38 1 1 -
  Elected on 7 March 2007 256 108 - 1 28 16 7 18 36 - 1 1 Prog. U.
  Elected on 23 November 2003 108 - - 24 18 6 27 30 - 1 1 Prog. U. 1 UKUP
  Elected on 25 June 1998 108 - - 18 24 6 28 20 - 4 2 Prog. U. 5 UKUP, 2 NIWC

Share of first-preference votes[edit]

Percentage of each constituency's first-preference votes. Four highest percentages in each constituency shaded; absolute majorities underlined. The constituencies are arranged in the geographic order described for the table above; click the icon next to "Constituency" to see them in alphabetical order.

  • [The totals given here are the sum of all valid ballots cast in each constituency, and the percentages are based on such totals. The turnout percentages in the last column, however, are based upon all ballots cast, which also include anything from twenty to a thousand invalid ballots in each constituency. The total valid ballots' percentage of the eligible electorate can correspondingly differ by 0.1% to 2% from the turnout percentage.]
No. 2015
MP
MP's %
of 2015
vote
Constituency PBP
Green
Sinn
Féin
SDLP
Alli-
ance
UUP
DUP
TUV
Ind.
Others.
Total
votes
Eligible
elector-
ate
Turn-
out
 %
1 DUP 43.2% North Antrim 1.3 12.9 7.5 3.2 10.7 43.1 17.9 3.3 - - 52.3%
2 DUP 36.1% East Antrim 2.1 8.1 3.8 14.6 20.2 36.1 5.1 9.9 - - 50.5%
3 UUP 32.7% South Antrim 1.7 13.2 9.6 8.9 22.2 37.5 3.8 1.4 1.7 - - 50.4%
4 DUP 47.0% Belfast North 3.5 2.2 26.5 10.6 7.0 5.4 35.0 1.8 0.9 7.1 - - 51.6%
5 SF 54.2% Belfast West 22.9 0.9 54.5 7.3 0.8 1.8 10.4 1.5 - - 56.7%
6 SDLP 24.5% Belfast South 9.6 14.2 20.0 16.4 6.7 22.0 1.3 1.3 8.5 - - 53.6%
7 DUP 49.3% Belfast East 5.9 2.5 0.4 28.7 11.1 36.7 2.4 3.0 9.4 - - 56.5%
8 Ind. 49.2% North Down 12.7 1.0 1.3 16.8 15.5 41.7 1.9 4.4 4.7 - - 49.0%
9 DUP 44.4% Strangford 2.8 2.0 8.3 10.7 19.5 43.0 4.3 5.9 3.4 - - 49.7%
10 DUP 47.9% Lagan Valley 2.9 2.7 7.5 9.5 21.2 47.2 3.3 2.1 3.6 - - 52.7%
11 DUP 32.7% Upper Bann 1.1 24.9 9.5 3.1 21.6 31.1 2.6 0.1 6.0 - - 53.6%
12 SDLP 42.3% South Down 2.0 31.1 31.4 5.4 8.5 12.3 6.6 2.8 - - 53.1%
13 SF 41.1% Newry & Armagh 0.7 40.9 18.2 1.0 14.1 16.7 5.5 2.9 - - 58.4%
14 UUP 46.4% Fermanagh & S. Tyrone 1.9 40.0 8.5 1.1 12.8 32.7 2.5 0.6 - - 63.5%
15 SF 43.5% West Tyrone 1.2 42.0 11.0 1.3 11.4 22.0 8.9 2.1 - - 59.1%
16 SF 48.7% Mid Ulster 0.9 46.7 15.2 1.2 11.9 18.1 4.6 1.4 - - 57.9%
17 SDLP 47.9% Foyle 10.5 0.4 28.5 30.0 0.6 3.6 11.9 13.9 0.8 - - 55.3%
18 DUP 42.2% East Londonderry 1.3 21.8 9.5 3.7 8.3 36.8 3.5 9.7 5.4 - - 50.1%
18 Northern Ireland 2.0 2.7 24.0 12.0 7.0 12.6 29.2 3.4 3.9 3.3 703,744 1,281,595 54.9%
Change since 2011 +1.2 +1.8 –2.9 –2.2 –0.7 –0.6 –0.8 +1.0 +1.7 +1.0 +42,008 +71,586 –0.7%
Election of May 2011 0.9 26.9 14.2 7.7 13.2 30.0 2.5 2.2 2.3 661,736 1,210,009 55.6%
Election of March 2007 1.7 26.2 15.2 5.2 14.9 30.1 - 3.8 2.8 690,313 1,107,904 62.9%
Election of Nov. 2003 0.4 23.5 17.0 3.7 22.7 25.7 - 5.6 2.8 692,026 1,097,526 63.1%
Election of June 1998 0.1 17.6 22.0 6.5 21.3 18.1 - 10.9 3.5 823,565 1,178,556 69.9%

Incumbents defeated[edit]

Sinn Féin[edit]

Democratic Unionist Party[edit]

Ulster Unionist Party[edit]

Social Democratic and Labour Party[edit]

Independent[edit]

Opinion Polling[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size DUP SF SDLP UUP Alliance TUV Green Others Lead
30 Mar – 1 Apr 2016 Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph 970 26.5% 25.8% 11.9% 15.6% 8.1% 4.1% 2.6% 5.4% 0.7%
8–12 Feb 2016 Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph 2,886 26.6% 24.6% 11.2% 14.5% 8.2% 3.5% 2.6% 8.8% 2.0%
19–21 Oct 2015 Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph 2,517 25.8% 25.4% 10.8% 15.0% 7.6% 3.2% 2.4% 9.8% 0.4%
7 May 2015 General Election Results 718,512 25.7% 24.5% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 2.3% 1.0% 8.0% 1.2%
22 May 2014 2014 Local Election Results 627,777 23.1% 24.1% 13.6% 16.2% 6.7% 4.5% 0.9% 10.9% 1.0%
22 May 2014 2014 European Election Results 626,125 20.9% 25.5% 13.0% 13.3% 7.1% 12.1% 1.7% 6.3% 4.6%
Sep 2013 Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph N/A 29.3% 26.1% 13.8% 10.8% 10.2% 2.2% 1.3% 6.3% 3.2%
Jan 2013 IPSOS-MORI/BBC 1,046 24% 23% 19% 13% 10% 11% 1%
5 May 2011 Assembly Election Results 661,736 29.3% 26.3% 13.9% 12.9% 7.7% 2.4% 0.9% 6.6% 3.0%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Electoral Office for Northern Ireland: Turnout Statistics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 May 2017. Retrieved 8 May 2016.
  2. ^ "View Registration - The Electoral Commission".
  3. ^ "Electoral Office for Northern Ireland: Eligible Electorate" (PDF). Retrieved 8 May 2016.
  4. ^ "Electoral Office for Northern Ireland: Turnout Statistics" (PDF). Retrieved 8 May 2016.
  5. ^ "The new Northern Ireland Bill". AgendaNi. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  6. ^ "Government welcomes elections agreement - Press releases". GOV.UK. 3 May 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  7. ^ "Northern Ireland Assembly elections put back to 2016". BBC News Online. 10 May 2013. Archived from the original on 9 June 2013. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
  8. ^ a b "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  9. ^ "The new Northern Ireland Bill". AgendaNi.com. 2 September 2013. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  10. ^ a b Gareth Gordon (3 March 2016). "Gregory Campbell to stand down as MLA ahead of double-jobbing ban". BBC News Online. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
  11. ^ "Departments Bill 70/11-16" (PDF). Northern Ireland Assembly. Retrieved 31 January 2016.
  12. ^ "Northern Ireland Assembly Election May 2016" (PDF). Electoralcommission.org.uk. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 February 2016. Retrieved 31 December 2015.
  13. ^ "The Electoral Office of Northern Ireland". EONI.org.uk. Archived from the original on 3 May 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  14. ^ "Northern Ireland election 2016: Candidates". BBC News. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  15. ^ "An Alliance For The Future?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  16. ^ "Anna Lo to quit NI politics over disillusionment". BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 3 July 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  17. ^ "Alliance MLA Kieran McCarthy to stand down from Assembly". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  18. ^ "DUP man Moutray to step down from the Assembly - Belfast Newsletter". Newsletter.co.uk. 7 December 2015. Archived from the original on 13 June 2016. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  19. ^ Clarke, Liam (19 November 2015). "DUP's Peter Robinson: I'm standing down within weeks". The Belfast Telegraph. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  20. ^ "I'm finished with politics, says Basil McCrea – bombshell announcementsounds death knell for NI21". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  21. ^ "SDLP's Dominic Bradley to retire as MLA next year". UTV. 19 October 2015.
  22. ^ "Race for Dallat's east Derry seat". Derry Journal. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  23. ^ "SDLP's Alban Maginness: I will not contest assembly election in May". BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 24 January 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  24. ^ "Phil Flanagan fails Sinn Féin reselection test". The Irish News. 15 December 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  25. ^ "Speaker Mitchel McLaughlin to stand down from Assembly". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  26. ^ "Veteran independent councillor Alan Chambers joins UUP". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk.
  27. ^ "Sam Gardiner misses out on UUP selection for Assembly election". Portadown Times. 17 September 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
  28. ^ "Michael McGimpsey to stand down from Northern Ireland Assembly". BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 19 February 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  29. ^ "#EURef Leave campaigns at the UKIP Northern Ireland conference #UKIPNI15". Slugger O'Toole. Archived from the original on 23 April 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  30. ^ (standing as NI Labour Representation Committee)