Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2017
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly[n 1]
46 seats needed for a majority
The 2017 election to the Northern Ireland Assembly was held on 2 March 2017. The election was held to elect members (MLAs) following the resignation of deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness in protest over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal. McGuinness' position was not filled, and thus by law his resignation triggered an election. It was the sixth election since the Assembly was re-established in 1998, and the first to implement a reduction in size to 90 MLAs (versus the previous 108).
1,254,709 people were registered to vote in the election (26,886 fewer, or a 2.1% decrease, compared to the 2016 Assembly election). 64.78% of registered voters turned out to vote in the 2017 Assembly election, up 10 percentage points from the previous Assembly election held in 2016, but 5 percentage points less than in the first election to the Assembly held in 1998.
Eight parties had MLAs in the fifth assembly: the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the Greens, People Before Profit (PBP), and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). There was also one Independent Unionist MLA.
- 1 Background
- 2 Candidates
- 3 Members not seeking re-election
- 4 Campaign
- 5 Opinion polling
- 6 Results
- 7 Aftermath
- 8 Footnotes
- 9 References
- 10 External links
Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced in 2013 that the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter. Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected, which after 2016 was to be 6 May 2021. However, by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved before the date scheduled.
Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin), the deputy First Minister, resigned on 9 January 2017 in protest at the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal (RHI) and other issues, such as the DUP's failure to support funding for inquests into killings during The Troubles and for an Irish language project. The First Minister, Arlene Foster (DUP), had been in charge of the RHI scheme in her previous ministerial position, but had refused to temporarily stand down as First Minister while an enquiry took place. Under the power-sharing arrangement, McGuinness' resignation as deputy First Minister meant that Foster automatically lost office as First Minister. The DUP condemned his resignation.
Sinn Féin had seven days, until 5 pm on 16 January 2017, in which to nominate a new deputy First Minister, but refused to do so in the Assembly plenary on 16 January. As a result the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, James Brokenshire, confirmed the same day that a snap election would be held on 2 March.
McGuinness subsequently announced that, owing to ill-health, he would not be seeking re-election to the Assembly; he then stepped down from leading the Sinn Féin group. He was replaced by Michelle O'Neill as leader of Sinn Féin in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Nominations opened on 27 January 2017 for the assembly election and closed on 8 February 2017.
A total of 228 candidates contested the 90 available seats in the Assembly, a reduction from the 276 who contested the 108 seats available in 2016.
The table below lists all of the nominated candidates. Candidates for the same party in a constituency are listed in alphabetical order, which is the order they appeared on the ballot paper.
- * indicates an incumbent MLA
- ** indicates the candidate is the incumbent MLA for a different constituency
- ^ indicates a former MLA who was not a member at the dissolution of the 2016-17 Assembly
- Leaders of parties represented in the assembly at dissolution are shown in bold text
|Belfast East||Mairéad O'Donnell||Andy Allen*||Séamas de Faoite||Andrew Girvin||Georgina Milne||Sheila Bodel|
|Belfast North||Robert Foster||Nichola Mallon*||Nuala McAllister||Malachai O'Hara|
|Belfast South||Máirtín Ó Muilleoir*||Michael Henderson||
||John Hiddleston||Clare Bailey*||George Jabbour|
|Belfast West||Frank McCoubrey||Fred Rogers||Alex Attwood*||Sorcha Eastwood||Ellen Murray|
|East Antrim||Oliver McMullan*||
||Margaret Anne McKillop||
||Ruth Wilson||Dawn Patterson||Alan Dunlop|
|East Londonderry||William McCandless||John Dallat^||Chris McCaw||Jordan Armstrong||Anthony Flynn||David Harding|
|Fermanagh and South Tyrone||Rosemary Barton*||Richie McPhillips*||Noreen Campbell||Alex Elliott||Tanya Jones||Richard Dunn||Donal Ó Cófaigh (CCLA)|
|Foyle||Gary Middleton*||Julia Kee||Colm Cavanagh||Shannon Downey||Stuart Canning|
|Lagan Valley||Peter Doran||Pat Catney||Trevor Lunn*||Samuel Morrison||Dan Barrios-O'Neill||Matthew Robinson|
|Mid Ulster||Keith Buchanan*||Sandra Overend*||Patsy McGlone*||Fay Watson||Hannah Loughrin||Stefan Taylor|
|Newry and Armagh||William Irwin*||Danny Kennedy*||Justin McNulty*||Jackie Coade||Rowan Tunnicliffe||Emmet Crossan (CISTA)|
|North Antrim||Philip McGuigan*||Robin Swann*||Connor Duncan||Patricia O'Lynn||
|North Down||Kieran Maxwell||
||Caoímhe McNeill||Stephen Farry*||Steven Agnew*||Frank Shivers|
|South Antrim||Declan Kearney*||Roisin Lynch||David Ford*||Richard Cairns||Eleanor Bailey||Mark Logan|
|South Down||Jim Wells*||
||Harold McKee*||Patrick Brown||Lyle Rea||Hannah George||Gary Hynds||Patrick Clarke (Ind.)|
|Strangford||Dermot Kennedy||Joe Boyle||Kellie Armstrong*||Stephen Cooper||Ricky Bamford||Scott Benton|
||Dolores Kelly^||Tara Doyle||Roy Ferguson||Simon Lee||Ian Nichols||Colin Craig (WP)|
|West Tyrone||Thomas Buchanan*||Alicia Clarke||Daniel McCrossan*||Stephen Donnelly||Charlie Chittick||Ciaran McClean||Roger Lomas|
Gerry Mullan, who was an MLA for the SDLP before the dissolution, stood as an independent after having been deselected by the party. Jonathan Bell, who was suspended from the DUP, was also standing as an independent. Both failed to get elected.
Members not seeking re-election
The Renewable Heat Incentive scandal remained central in the campaign. Sinn Féin said they would not return to government with the DUP while questions over RHI remain over the DUP's leader, Foster. There were concerns about deteriorating cross-community relationships. If the two parties emerged as the largest in their communities and could not resolve the issue, direct rule by the UK government could be imposed.
The UUP leader, Mike Nesbitt, promoted the possibility of a UUP/SDLP administration. He said he would give his voting preference after the UUP candidates to the SDLP, although he said he would not tell UUP voters what to do with their later preferences. Other UUP candidates opposed the action, saying they will give later preferences to other unionist candidates over the SDLP, and one UUP councillor resigned from the party in protest.
The DUP criticised Nesbitt's position and campaigned arguing that splitting the unionist vote could help Sinn Féin come out as the largest party.
Brexit was also an issue. In the UK-wide referendum on EU membership on 23 June 2016, 56% of voters in Northern Ireland voted to "Remain" a member of the European Union while 44% voted to "Leave". The DUP supported the UK leaving the EU, while nationalist parties and most others opposed, fearing among other things the possibility of a hard border resulting with the Republic of Ireland. It became known during the campaign that the DUP spent £282,000 on a pro-Brexit advert in a newspaper that did not appear in Northern Ireland. The money came from the Constitutional Research Council, a minor pro-union group chaired by the former vice-chair of the Scottish Conservative Party Richard Cook.
|Remain||Alliance Party of Northern Ireland|||
|Green Party in Northern Ireland|||
|Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)|||
|Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)|||
|Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)|||
|People Before Profit Alliance (PBP)|||
|Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)|||
The Alliance Party campaigned on their opposition to sectarianism. People Before Profit focused on their opposition to austerity.
|Polling organisation/client||Sample size||DUP||SF||UUP||SDLP||Alliance||TUV||Green||PBP||Others||Lead|
|2 March 2017||2017 Assembly Election Results||812,783||28.1%||27.9%||12.9%||11.9%||9.1%||2.6%||2.3%||1.8%||3.7%||0.2%|
|24–26 February 2017||Lucid Talk||1,580||26.3%||25.3%||13.9%||12.2%||9.5%||4.4%||3.4%||2.4%||2.7%||1.0%|
|26–28 January 2017||Lucid Talk||1,580||25.9%||25.1%||13.9%||12.4%||8.9%||4.3%||3.9%||2.7%||3.1%||0.8%|
|5 May 2016||2016 Assembly Election Results||703,744||29.2%||24.0%||12.6%||12.0%||7.0%||3.4%||2.7%||2.0%||7.1%||5.2%|
|Sinn Féin||Michelle O'Neill||34||27||1||4||224,245||27.9%||3.9%|
|Green (NI)||Steven Agnew||18||2||18,527||2.3%||0.4%|
|People Before Profit||Eamonn McCann||7||1||1||14,100||1.8%||0.2%|
|NI Conservatives||Emma Pidding||13||0||2,399||0.3%||0.1%|
|Labour Alternative||Owen McCracken||4||0||2,009||0.3%|
|Workers' Party||John Lowry||5||0||1,261||0.2%|
|Electorate: 1,254,709 Total Poll: 812,783 Turnout: 64.78% (9.8%) Invalid Votes: 9,468|
Seat changes compared to a notional result from 2016 with a 90-seat Assembly
Psephologist Nicholas Whyte estimated the likely result in the 2016 election had it been fought with 5-seat constituencies rather than six-seat constituencies. This table shows the different result, and compares the actual result in 2017 to this notional result.
|Party||MLAs elected in 2016||Notional 2016||MLAs elected in 2017||Change from
notional 2016 result
|People Before Profit||2||1||1||Other|
Distribution of seats by constituency
Party affiliation of the five Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the general election of 7 May 2015 (under the "first past the post" method).
(The constituencies are arranged here in rough geographical order around Lough Neagh from Antrim to Londonderry. To see them in alphabetical order, click the small square icon after "Constituency"; to restore this geographical order, click the icon at the left.)
|13||SF||Newry and Armagh||–||5||–||–||3||1||–||–||1||–||–||–||UUP|
|14||UUP||Fermanagh & South Tyrone||–||5||–||–||3||–||–||1||1||–||–||SF|
|Change since dissolution||–||–18||–1||0||–1||–||–||–6||–10||–||–||–||–|
|Assembly at dissolution||–||108||2||2||28||12||8||16||38||1||1||–||–|
|Change during Assembly term||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|Elected on 5 May 2011||218||108||2||2||28||12||8||16||38||1||1||–||–|
|Elected on 7 March 2007||256||108||–||1||28||16||7||18||36||–||1||1 Prog. U.||–|
|Elected on 23 November 2003||108||–||–||24||18||6||27||30||–||1||1 Prog. U.||1 UKUP|
|Elected on 25 June 1998||108||–||–||18||24||6||28||20||–||4||2 Prog. U.||5 UKUP, 2 NIWC|
- Three of the four independents elected in 1998 ran as Independent Unionists
- NIWC = Northern Ireland Women's Coalition; Prog. U. = Progressive Unionist Party; TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice; UKUP = UK Unionist Party
Percentage of each constituency's first-preference votes. Four highest percentages in each constituency shaded; absolute majorities underlined. The constituencies are arranged in the geographic order described for the table above; click the icon next to "Constituency" to see them in alphabetical order.
- [The totals given here are the sum of all valid ballots cast in each constituency, and the percentages are based on such totals. The turnout percentages in the last column, however, are based upon all ballots cast, which also include anything from twenty to a thousand invalid ballots in each constituency. The total valid ballots' percentage of the eligible electorate can correspondingly differ by 0.1% to 2% from the turnout percentage.]
|13||SF||41.1%||Newry & Armagh||0.5||48.3||16.4||2.6||13.2||17.8||1.3||–||–||69.4%|
|14||UUP||46.4%||Fermanagh & S. Tyrone||1.1||42.1||9.8||2.7||11.6||29.8||1.5||1.3||–||–||72.6%|
|Change since 2016||–0.2||–0.4||+3.9||–0.1||+2.1||+0.3||–1.1||–0.9||–2.1||–1.5||+109,039||–26,886||+10.0%|
|Election of May 2016||2.0||2.7||24.0||12.0||7.0||12.6||29.2||3.4||3.9||3.3||703,744||1,281,595||54.9%|
|Election of May 2011||0.9||26.9||14.2||7.7||13.2||30.0||2.5||2.2||2.3||661,736||1,210,009||55.6%|
|Election of March 2007||1.7||26.2||15.2||5.2||14.9||30.1||3.8||2.8||690,313||1,107,904||62.9%|
|Election of Nov. 2003||0.4||23.5||17.0||3.7||22.7||25.7||5.6||2.8||692,026||1,097,526||63.1%|
|Election of June 1998||0.1||17.6||22.0||6.5||21.3||18.1||10.9||3.5||823,565||1,178,556||69.9%|
- Independent Unionist vote in 1998 (2.8%) included in the Independent column (not "others"). TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice.
The election marked a significant shift in Northern Ireland's politics, being the first election since Ireland's partition in 1921 in which unionist parties did not win a majority of seats. The DUP's loss of seats also prevents it from unilaterally using the petition of concern mechanism, which the party had controversially used to block measures such as the introduction of same-sex marriage to Northern Ireland.
UUP leader Mike Nesbitt announced his resignation, following the party's failure to make any breakthrough.
Sinn Féin reiterated that it would not return to a power-sharing arrangement with the DUP without significant changes in the DUP's approach, including Foster not becoming First Minister until the RHI investigation is complete. The parties had three weeks to form an administration; failing that, new elections would have to be called.
While unionism has lost its overall majority in the Assembly, the result has been characterised by political analyst Matthew Whiting as being more about voters seeking competent local leadership, and about the DUP having less success than Sinn Féin in motivating its traditional voter base to turn out, than about a significant move towards a united Ireland.
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland James Brokenshire gave the political parties more time to reach a coalition agreement after the 27 March deadline passed. Sinn Féin called for fresh elections if agreement could not be reached. Negotiations were paused over Easter, but Brokenshire threatened a new election or direct rule if no agreement could be reached by early May. On 18 April, the Conservative Party Prime Minister, Theresa May, then called a snap general election for 8 June 2017. A new deadline of 29 June was then set for power-sharing talks.
The UK General Election saw both the DUP and Sinn Féin advance, with the UUP and SDLP losing all their MPs. The overall result saw the Conservatives losing seats, resulting in a hung parliament. May has sought to continue as Prime Minister running a minority administration through seeking the support of the DUP. Various commentators suggested this raises problems for the UK government's role as a neutral arbiter in Northern Ireland, as is required under the Good Friday Agreement. Talks re-started on 12 June 2017, while a Conservative–DUP agreement was announced and published on 26 June.
A new deadline was set for 29 June, but it appeared that no agreement would be reached in time, with the main sticking point over Sinn Féin's desire for an Irish language act, rejected by the DUP, while Sinn Féin reject a hybrid act that also covers Ulster Scots. The deadline passed with no resolution. Brokenshire extended the time for talks, but Sinn Féin and the DUP remained pessimistic about any quick resolution.
Negotiations resumed in the autumn but failed, leaving it in the hands of the UK Parliament to pass a budget for the ongoing financial year of 2017-18. The bill, which began its passage on 13 November, would if enacted release the final 5% of Northern Ireland's block grant. Talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin recommenced on 6 February 2018, only days before mid-February deadline where, in the absence of an agreement, a regional budget will have to be imposed by Westminster. Despite being attended by Theresa May and Leo Varadkar, the talks collapsed and DUP negotiator Simon Hamilton stated “significant and serious gaps remain between ourselves and Sinn Féin”.
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- Sinn Féin's leader at the time of the election was Gerry Adams, but Michelle O'Neill is the leader of the party in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
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