October surprise

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In American political jargon, an October surprise is a news event deliberately created or timed or sometimes occurring spontaneously to influence the outcome of an election, particularly one for the U.S. presidency. Because the date for national elections (as well as many state and local elections) is in early November, events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters. Thus these relatively last-minute news stories could either completely change the entire course of an election or strongly reinforce the inevitable.[1]

The term "October surprise" was coined by William Casey when he served as campaign manager of Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign.[2] There have been however October election-upending events that predate the coining of the term.[1][2]

1972: McGovern vs. Nixon[edit]

During the 1972 presidential election between Republican incumbent Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern, the United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the very long and domestically divisive Vietnam War. On October 26, 1972, twelve days before the election on November 7, the United States' chief negotiator, the presidential National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, appeared at a press conference held at the White House and announced, "We believe that peace is at hand."[3] Nixon, despite having vowed to end the unpopular war during his presidential election campaign four years earlier, had failed to cease hostilities but significantly reduced American involvement, especially ground forces. Nixon was nevertheless already widely considered to be assured of an easy reelection victory against McGovern, but Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration may have increased Nixon's already high standing with the electorate. In the event, Nixon outpolled McGovern in every state except Massachusetts and achieved a 20-point lead in the nationwide popular vote. Remaining U.S. ground forces were withdrawn in 1973, but U.S. military involvement in Vietnam continued until 1975.[4]

1980: Carter vs. Reagan[edit]

In the 1980 presidential election, Republican challenger Ronald Reagan feared that a last-minute deal to release American hostages held in Iran might earn incumbent Jimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election.[5][6] As it happened, in the days prior to the election, press coverage was consumed with the Iranian government's decision—and Carter's simultaneous announcement—that the hostages would not be released until after the election.[6]

It was first written about in a Jack Anderson article in The Washington Post in the fall of 1980, in which he alleged that the Carter administration was preparing a major military operation in Iran for rescuing U.S. hostages in order to help him get reelected. Subsequent allegations surfaced against Reagan alleging that his team had impeded the hostage release to negate the potential boost to the Carter campaign.[7]

After the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981, minutes after Reagan's inauguration, some charged that the Reagan campaign had made a secret deal with the Iranian government whereby the Iranians would hold the hostages until after Reagan was elected and inaugurated.[6]

Gary Sick, member of the National Security council under Presidents Ford and Carter (before being relieved of his duties weeks into Reagan's term)[8] made the accusation in a New York Times editorial[9] in the run-up to the 1992 election. The initial bipartisan response from Congress was skeptical: House Democrats refused to authorize an inquiry, and Senate Republicans denied a $600,000 appropriation for a probe.

Eight former hostages also sent an open letter demanding an inquiry in 1991.[9] In subsequent Congressional testimony, Sick said that the popular media had distorted and misrepresented the accusers, reducing them to "gross generalizations" and "generic conspiracy theorists". Sick penned a book on the subject and sold the movie rights to it for a reported $300,000.[10] His sources and thesis were contested by a number of commentators on both sides of the aisle.[11][12]

Abolhassan Banisadr, the former President of Iran, has also stated "that the Reagan campaign struck a deal with Tehran to delay the release of the hostages in 1980", asserting that "by the month before the American Presidential election in November 1980, many in Iran's ruling circles were openly discussing the fact that a deal had been made between the Reagan campaign team and some Iranian religious leaders in which the hostages' release would be delayed until after the election so as to prevent President Carter's re-election."[13] He repeated the charge in My Turn to Speak: Iran, the Revolution & Secret Deals with the U.S.[14]

Two separate congressional investigations looked into the charges, both concluding that there was no plan to seek to delay the hostages' release.[6]

In a memoir by Joseph V. Reed Jr. it is revealed that the "team" around David Rockefeller "collaborated closely with the Reagan campaign in its efforts to pre-empt and discourage what it derisively labeled an “October surprise” — a pre-election release of the American hostages, the papers show. The Chase team helped the Reagan campaign gather and spread rumors about possible payoffs to win the release, a propaganda effort that Carter administration officials have said impeded talks to free the captives.".[15]

1992: Bush vs. Clinton[edit]

In June 1992, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger was indicted in the Iran–Contra affair.[16][17] Though he claims to have been opposed to the sale on principle, Weinberger participated in the transfer of United States TOW missiles to Iran, that were used to stop Saddam Hussein's massive tank army, and was later indicted on several felony charges of lying to the Iran-Contra independent counsel during its investigation. Republicans angrily accused Independent Counsel Lawrence E. Walsh of timing Weinberger's indictment to hurt George H. W. Bush's re-election chances. As Weinberger's trial approached, more concrete information on Bush's direct role emerged, including statements by Reagan Middle East specialist Howard Teicher that Bush knew of the arms deal in spring 1986 and an Israeli memo that made it clear that Bush was well versed in the deal by July 1986.[18][19]

2000: Gore vs. Bush[edit]

Days before the November 7 election, Thomas J. Connolly of Scarborough, Maine, a prominent defense attorney and 1998 Democratic candidate for governor, confirmed to a reporter that Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in that state in 1976. Bush confirmed the report in a press conference moments after it was revealed.[20]

2003: California governor recall election[edit]

On October 2, 2003, the Los Angeles Times released a story about Arnold Schwarzenegger and subsequent allegations that he was a womanizer guilty of multiple acts of sexual misconduct in past decades. The story was released just before the 2003 California recall (which was scheduled for October 7), prompting many pundits to charge that the timing of the story was aimed specifically at derailing the recall campaign.[21] It was not the only embarrassing story about Schwarzenegger to surface just days before the campaign: the next day, ABC News and The New York Times reported that in 1975 Schwarzenegger had praised Adolf Hitler during interviews for the film Pumping Iron, which was responsible for the bodybuilder-turned-actor's fame.[22] The twin controversies later led Los Angeles Times columnist Steve Lopez to coin the term "gropenfuhrer" to describe California's governor-elect (a compounded pun on the Nazi paramilitary rank Gruppenführer and the words to grope and Führer).;[23] a series of Doonesbury strips made the term famous.

2004: Kerry vs. Bush[edit]

On October 27, The New York Times reported the disappearance of huge cache of explosives from a warehouse in al Qa'qaa (see Missing explosives in Iraq). The John Kerry campaign blamed the Bush administration for this supposed mismanagement; administration officials charged that the Times had gotten the story wrong, and that the explosives had been cleared from the storage facility before the looting was supposed to have taken place.

On October 29, the Arabic news agency Al Jazeera aired a video of Osama bin Laden.[5] In a speech that justifies and takes responsibility for the actions of September 11, bin Laden calls out the Bush administration and the American position in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. "Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al-Qaeda," bin Laden claimed; "Your security is in your own hands."[24] This is believed to have helped President Bush's campaign as it thrust the War on Terror back into the public eye. There is debate as to whether bin Laden was aware of the effect the video would have on the elections; the "Bush bounce" from the video did not surprise most outside observers of the 2004 election.

It has been claimed that Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud cut the price of oil (thus reducing gas prices) to help ensure a Bush victory.[25] According to a 60 Minutes broadcast, "Prince Bandar enjoys easy access to the Oval Office. His family and the Bush family are close. And Woodward told us that Bandar has promised the president that Saudi Arabia will lower oil prices in the months before the election to ensure the U.S. economy is strong on Election Day."[26]

2006: midterm elections[edit]

The Mark Foley scandal, in which the congressman resigned over sexual computer messages he exchanged with underage congressional pages, broke on September 28, 2006, and dominated the news in early October. Bloomberg.com wrote, "The October surprise came early this election year...."[27] Allegations that both Republicans and Democrats had knowledge of Foley's actions months before the breaking of the story only fueled the speculation regarding the possibly politically motivated timing of the story's release.[28]

Two studies by The Lancet on mortality in Iraq before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq have been described as October surprises for the 2004 and 2006 elections.[29] Les Roberts acknowledged that the 2004 study was timed to appear just before the presidential election,[30] though he denied that it was meant to favor one candidate over another.[citation needed] Although the studies used standard epidemiological methods, was peer reviewed and supported by a majority of statisticians and epidemiologists, political critics have dismissed the studies based on a variety of alleged shortcomings.[30]

News that the Saddam Hussein trial verdict would be rendered on November 5, 2006, just two days ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, led Tom Engelhardt of magazine The Nation to dub it, on October 17, the "November Surprise".[31] In a White House Press gaggle on November 4, 2006, a reporter suggested that the timing of the verdict might be an attempt to influence the outcome of the November election, to which White House Press Secretary Tony Snow replied "Are you smoking rope?" Snow later told CNN's Late Edition, "The idea is preposterous, that somehow we've been scheming and plotting with the Iraqis".[32]

2008: McCain vs. Obama[edit]

On October 31, 2008, four days before the 2008 presidential election, the Associated Press reported that Zeituni Onyango, half-aunt of Democratic candidate Barack Obama, was living as an illegal immigrant in Boston. She had been denied asylum and ordered to leave the United States in 2004.[33] Some have also described the October 2008 record rise in unemployment as an "October Surprise".[34]

2012: Romney vs. Obama[edit]

Hurricane Sandy was labelled an October surprise by some in the media.[35][36][37] Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who had been a staunch critic of President Barack Obama, was seen praising the response of the Obama administration.[citation needed] Given that the event was not created by human beings, the term is a misnomer.

On September 17, left-leaning magazine Mother Jones published audio tape secretly recorded at a private Mitt Romney fund raiser wherein the candidate made disparaging remarks about the 47% of Americans who pay no federal income tax. While not occurring in October, some regarded the release as an "October Surprise" given its release relatively late in the election cycle and the fact that the original tape had been recorded in May. In subsequent writings, David Corn, the reporter who broke the story, explained that the timing of the release was because of negotiations between Mother Jones and the man who recorded the tape over precisely how to release it. Corn insists that the timing was not politically motivated.

2016: Clinton vs. Trump[edit]

On October 7, a recording from 2005 was released in which Republican Party nominee Donald Trump, using explicit language, claimed that women let him kiss and grope them because he is "a star". Several politicians from both major parties expressed their disapproval of these remarks. Trump, who had been accused of sexism on several occasions before, later apologized for these remarks, saying they "don't reflect who I am."[38][39][40] But the remarks led to many Republicans withdrawing their endorsement from Trump including Arizona Senator John McCain, New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, and Carly Fiorina. Many others who had not previously endorsed him asked him to step aside as the Republican nominee, including former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

The same day, WikiLeaks began a two month campaign of releasing emails and excerpts from the account of John Podesta. They would later become known as the Podesta Leaks. They shed a strongly negative light on Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton, and included voice excerpts of speeches given by Clinton to a variety of banks, debate questions being leaked to Hillary prior to the debate, a stance on trade-deals different from those purported by Clinton during her campaign, along with her belief that it is beneficial to hold both public and private beliefs.[41]

Three weeks later, on October 28, then FBI Director James Comey announced in a letter to Congress that he would take "appropriate investigative steps" to review additional emails related to Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server. This was announced after newly discovered emails were found on a computer that was seized by the FBI, during an investigation of former congressman Anthony Weiner after being accused of sending explicit pictures to a minor. The emails were found on a computer used by both Weiner and his ex-wife, top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, according to law enforcement officials. Several hours later, Hillary Clinton responded to the decision of the Director by calling on the FBI to be fully transparent and to release "full and complete facts" on what the emails contained. On October 30, it was reported that 650,000 emails on Weiner's computer were to be investigated, potentially being relevant to this particular and other cases.[42][43][44]

2018: midterm elections[edit]

A caravan of migrants from Central America became the "October surprise" of 2018.[45][46][47] President Trump tweeted information about the caravan,[48][49][50][51][52][53] and later released a Republican television advertisement that many criticized as racist (Fox News, NBC, and Facebook removed the advertisement after they considered it racist and CNN refused to air it).[54][55][56][57][58] The story dominated discussion on many news networks, with many pundits criticizing Trump. News host Shepard Smith said on his Fox News show that the migrant caravan "hysteria" was actually intended to stoke fear before the midterm election and ridiculed Trump's claims.[59][60]

See also[edit]


  1. ^ a b Gee, Taylor (October 4, 2016). "15 October Surprises That Wreaked Havoc on Politics". Politico Magazine. Politico. Retrieved July 16, 2020.
  2. ^ a b Keller, Jared (October 11, 2016). "The Strange History of the October Surprise". Smithsonian. Smithsonian Institution. Retrieved July 16, 2020.
  3. ^ Kissinger 2003:591
  4. ^ "Star-News - Google News Archive Search". news.google.com. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  5. ^ a b "John McCain and the October Surprise". The New York Observer. Archived from the original on October 12, 2008. Retrieved January 27, 2009. The term "October surprise" is most famously associated with the 1980 campaign, when Republicans spent the fall worrying that Jimmy Carter would engineer a last-minute deal to free the American hostages who had been held in Iran since the previous year. Carter and Ronald Reagan were locked in a close race, but an awful economy and flagging national confidence made the president supremely vulnerable.
  6. ^ a b c d Lewis, Neil A. (January 13, 1993). "House Inquiry Finds No Evidence of Deal On Hostages in 1980". The New York Times. Retrieved September 21, 2014. A bipartisan House panel has concluded that there is no merit to the persistent accusations that people associated with the 1980 Presidential campaign of Ronald Reagan struck a secret deal with Iran to delay the release of American hostages until after the election.
  7. ^ Lenahan, Rod (1998). Crippled Eagle: A Historical Perspective Of U.S. Special Operations 1976–1996. Narwhal Press. p. 178. ISBN 1-886391-23-8.
  8. ^ "SIPA: Faculty Gary Sick". Sipa.columbia.edu. Archived from the original on August 4, 2010. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  9. ^ a b Gary Sick (April 15, 1991). "The Election Story of the Decade". The New York Times. reprinted in "Creating a Task Force to Investigate Certain Allegations Concerning the Holding of Americans as Hostages by Iran in 1980 (House of Representatives - February 05, 1992)". Fas.org. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  10. ^ Dreifus, Claudia (January 24, 1992). "Himself Surprised". Entertainment Weekly. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  11. ^ Michael Ledeen (June 1, 1992). "October Surprise, by Gary Sick". Commentary. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  12. ^ Daniel Pipes (January 1, 2003). "The "October Surprise" Theory". Daniel Pipes. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  13. ^ Lewis, Neil A. (May 7, 1991). "Bani-Sadr, in U.S., Renews Charges of 1980 Deal". The New York Times. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  14. ^ Abolhassan Banisadr. My Turn to Speak: Iran, the Revolution and Secret Deals With the U.S.. From a series of interviews with Jean-Charles Deniau. Foreword by L. Bruce Laingen. Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 1991. ISBN 0-08-040563-0. Translation of Abol Hassan Bani Sadr. Le complot des ayatollahs. Propos recueillis par Jean-Charles Deniau. Paris: La Découverte, 1989.
  15. ^ Kirkpatrick, David D. (December 29, 2019). "How a Chase Bank Chairman Helped the Deposed Shah of Iran Enter the U.S." The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 19, 2020.
  16. ^ Johnston, David (June 17, 1992). "Weinberger Faces 5 Counts In Iran-Contra Indictment". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via NYTimes.com.
  17. ^ http://fas.org/irp/offdocs/walsh/
  18. ^ Johnston, David (October 4, 1992). "Years Later, Questions Remain About Bush's Role in the Iran-Contra Affair". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via NYTimes.com.
  19. ^ "Mr. Bush Had to Know". October 5, 1992. Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via NYTimes.com.
  20. ^ Adam Cohen (November 13, 2000). "Fallout From A Midnight Ride". Time. Retrieved March 6, 2020.
  21. ^ "CBS eyed '60 Minutes' Bush bombshell". The Washington Times. October 27, 2004. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  22. ^ "Arnold Allegedly Praised Hitler in 1975 Interview". Fox News. October 3, 2003.
  23. ^ Steve Lopez (October 8, 2003). "Der Gropenfuhrer Muscles His Way Into Office – So What Now?". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  24. ^ "Excerpts: Bin Laden video". BBC News. October 29, 2004. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  25. ^ "Saudis said to boost oil output". Money.cnn.com. April 19, 2004. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  26. ^ "Did Bush Cut Secret Oil Deal With Saudis Ahead of 2004 Election?". Democracy Now. April 20, 2004. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
  27. ^ Catherine Dodge; Jay Newton-Small (October 3, 2006). "October Surprise in This Campaign Puts Republicans On the Spot". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 3, 2006.
  28. ^ "Is Foley Scandal the 'October Surprise'?". Fox News. October 6, 2006.
  29. ^ Linton Weeks (October 21, 2006). "Boo!? An Inevitable October Surprise". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  30. ^ a b National Journal, Data Bomb Archived March 24, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  31. ^ Tom Engelhardt (October 17, 2006). "November Surprise?". The Nation. Retrieved October 18, 2006.
  32. ^ Christine Hauser (November 5, 2006). "Praising Verdict, Bush Says U.S. Will Stand By Iraq". The New York Times. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  33. ^ Hsu, Spencer S.; Rakowsky, Judy (November 2, 2008). "Disclosure About Obama's Aunt May Have Violated Privacy Policy". The Washington Post.
  34. ^ Goodman, Peter S. (November 8, 2008). "Jobless Rate at 14-Year High After October Losses". The New York Times.
  35. ^ Jurek Martin (October 30, 2012). "Frankenstorm generates 'October surprise'". Financial Times. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  36. ^ Aiko Stevenson (October 30, 2012). "October Surprise Arrives With Less Than a Week to Go". The Huffington Post. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  37. ^ "Hurricane Sandy might be an October Surprise, a site curated by MSU". Archived from the original on January 19, 2013. Retrieved October 30, 2012.
  38. ^ Collinson, Stephen. "Can Donald Trump recover from this?". CNN. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  39. ^ Tom Liddy (October 7, 2016). "Donald Trump's List of Excuses for Comments About Women". ABC News. Retrieved October 8, 2016.
  40. ^ Claire Cohen (October 8, 2016). "Donald Trump sexism tracker: Every offensive comment in one place". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved October 8, 2016.
  41. ^ Jamieson, Amber (October 31, 2016). "DNC head leaked debate question to Clinton, Podesta emails suggests". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved April 22, 2020.
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  45. ^ Maza, Carlos (November 5, 2018). "Why every election gets its own crisis". Vox. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  46. ^ Henninger, Daniel (October 24, 2018). "Opinion - The October Surprise Arrives". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via www.wsj.com.
  47. ^ https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/10/migrant_caravan_points_way_to_gop_midterm_success.html
  48. ^ Grynbaum, Michael M.; Chokshi, Niraj (November 5, 2018). "Even Fox News Stops Running Trump Caravan Ad Criticized as Racist". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via NYTimes.com.
  49. ^ "FACT CHECK: President Trump's Claims On Migrant Caravan, Tax Cuts". NPR.org. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  50. ^ "Donald Trump says Democrats invite migrant caravans". @politifact. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  51. ^ Qiu, Linda (November 3, 2018). "Fact-Checking Trump's Montana Rally". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via NYTimes.com.
  52. ^ Serwer, Adam (October 28, 2018). "Trump's Caravan Hysteria Led to This". The Atlantic. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  53. ^ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/09/trump-administrations-fuzzy-math-criminals-caravan/
  54. ^ Business, Brian Stelter and Oliver Darcy, CNN. "NBC and Fox finally stop running Trump's racist ad after it was viewed by millions". CNN. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  55. ^ Bort, Ryan; Bort, Ryan (November 5, 2018). "Trump's New Ad Is Too Racist for Fox News". rollingstone.com. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  56. ^ Markay, Lachlan (November 5, 2018). "Facebook Pulls Racist Trump Ad Following NBC, CNN, and Fox News". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via www.thedailybeast.com.
  57. ^ Stewart, Emily (November 5, 2018). "Fox News, NBC, and Facebook pulled Trump's racist campaign ad. He's not happy about it". Vox. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
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  59. ^ Shamsian, Jacob. "'There is nothing at all to worry about': Fox News host Shep Smith says the migrant caravan hysteria is actually about the midterm election". Business Insider. Retrieved February 4, 2019.
  60. ^ Papenfuss, Mary (October 30, 2018). "Fox News' Shep Smith Ridicules Trump's Migrant Caravan 'Invasion' Claim". Retrieved February 4, 2019 – via Huff Post.


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