2016 Ohio Republican primary

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Ohio Republican primary, 2016

← 2012 March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
  Governor John Kasich.jpg Donald Trump Pentagon 2017.jpg Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Candidate John Kasich Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state Ohio New York Texas
Delegate count 66 0 0
Popular vote 933,886 713,404 264,640
Percentage 46.95% 35.87% 13.31%

Ohio Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Ohio results by county.
  John Kasich
  Donald Trump

The Ohio Republican primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio. The primary was won by the state's incumbent governor, John Kasich.

Background[edit]

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for the 6th of March.[1] However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, only reached 37% of the vote and thus only won 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks.[2] In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided on making the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.[3]

The state of the campaign[edit]

Previous contests[edit]

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[4][5]

Run-up to the election[edit]

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11.[21] The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election.[22] Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.[23]

Results[edit]

Ohio Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
America Symbol.svg John Kasich 933,886 46.95% 66 0 66
Donald Trump 713,404 35.87% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 264,640 13.31% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio 46,478 2.34% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,351 0.72% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 5,398 0.27% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 4,941 0.25% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,430 0.12% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 2,112 0.11% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 1,320 0.07% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,988,960 100.00% 66 0 66
Source: The Green Papers

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.[24]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  2. ^ "Super Tuesday II: Clinton sweeps Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina; Rubio quits after Trump wins Florida". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  3. ^ "Ohio GOP sets presidential primary as a winner-take-all event, a move that could boost John Kasich". cleveland.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  4. ^ "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  5. ^ "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  6. ^ "2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  7. ^ "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF). Monmouth University Polling Institute. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  8. ^ "TRUMP TOPS RUBIO IN FLORIDA, TIES KASICH IN OHIO, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON LEADS SANDERS IN TWO CRITICAL PRIMARIES" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  9. ^ "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida". YouGov. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
  10. ^ "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio". NBC News. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
  11. ^ "Fox News Poll: Kasich ahead in Ohio". Fox News. Retrieved 10 March 2016.
  12. ^ "TRUMP BURIES RUBIO 2-1 IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; KASICH TRYING TO CATCH TRUMP IN OHIO" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 10 March 2016.
  13. ^ "Trump, Kasich in Tight Ohio Race" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 8 March 2016.
  14. ^ Bradner, Eric (2016-03-09). "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio". CNN. Retrieved 2016-03-09.
  15. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  16. ^ "Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  17. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2016.
  18. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
  19. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
  20. ^ "Public Policy Polling" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
  21. ^ CNN, Tal Kopan, Julia Manchester and MJ Lee. "Best chance to stop Trump in Ohio is Kasich, Rubio adviser says". CNN. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  22. ^ "ARG (3/12-3/13 2016)". The Huffington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  23. ^ "What's At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries". FiveThirtyEight. 2016-03-14. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
  24. ^ "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-06-23.