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Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election

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Dilma Rousseff
PT 		José Serra
PSDB 		Marina Silva
PV

Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election started as early as 2008. All polls conducted between 1 January 2010 and election day were registered in the Supreme Electoral Court database, as required by electoral law.[1] The main nationwide polling institutes are Datafolha, IBOPE, Vox Populi, and Sensus.

Election information

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Main article: 2010 Brazilian presidential election

The first round of the 2010 Brazilian presidential election was held on October 3, as part of the country's general election, with a second round between the two leading candidates on October 31. That happened because under Brazilian law, if none of the candidates receives more than a half of the valid votes, a run-off is held four weeks after the first round.[2] The leading candidate, Dilma Rousseff, received 46.9% of the first-round vote, thereby making a second round necessary.

In the election, Brazilian citizens eligible to vote chose their successor to then-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the democratic socialist/social democratic Workers' Party. According to the Constitution, the president is elected directly to a four-year term, with a limit of two terms. Lula was hence ineligible for a third term, since he was elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006.[3] The 2010 election marked the first time since the end of the military dictatorship that Lula was not a candidate for the presidency.[4]

Candidates overview

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Since the earliest polls for president, former São Paulo Governor José Serra – candidate for the center-right[5] opposition group led by the centrist/Third Way[6][7] Social Democratic Party – was ahead of Dilma Rousseff, pre-candidate for the ruling center-left bloc led by the Workers' Party. Rousseff, however, increased her popularity greatly, rising from 3% in March 2008 to 30% in March 2010. On the May 8, 2010 poll by Vox Populi, she finally surpassed Serra, achieving 37% of the voting intention.

Another potential candidate for the ruling center-left group was Ciro Gomes from the Brazilian Socialist Party,[6] who lost his comfortable second place in polls to Rousseff in May 2009. After that, he maintained an average of 12% of voting intention. On April 27, 2010, Gomes' party declined to launch his candidacy, instead supporting Rousseff.[8] In the left-wing opposition group, Socialism and Freedom Party's Heloísa Helena was the most likely candidate, but her name was withdrawn from polling after she decided to run for a seat in the Senate for Alagoas.[9] Plínio de Arruda Sampaio was her party's candidate for president.[9] Almost simultaneously, Marina Silva left the Workers' Party and joined the Green Party to run for president.[10] Prior to her candidature, she was well known internationally as a defender of the Amazon Rainforest, but was less known in her native Brazil.[6]

Polls

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The results displayed in this article excludes results for spontaneous polls (in which cards with the names of likely candidates are not presented to researched voters), due to the significant number of voters that would vote for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. By law, leaders of all stances of the Executive branch can only be re-elected once.

In September, Vox Populi institute began an unprecedented tracking poll for president, which was intended to last for 36 days until October 2.

First round

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Graphic representation of polls up to 29 September 2010.
Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Rousseff
PT 		Serra
PSDB 		Silva
PV 		Others Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
2010 election 3 Oct 46.91% 32.61% 19.33% 1.15% 8.64% 14.3%
Vox Populi 2 Oct 47% 26% 14% 0% 13% 21%
Ibope 1–2 Oct 47% 29% 16% 0% 8% 18%
Datafolha 1–2 Oct 47% 29% 16% 0% 8% 18%
Vox Populi 1 Oct 48% 27% 12% 0% 13% 21%
Vox Populi 30 Sep 49% 26% 12% 0% 13% 23%
Vox Populi 29 Sep 49% 26% 12% 0% 13% 23%
Datafolha 28–29 Sep 47% 28% 14% 0% 11% 19%
Vox Populi 28 Sep 49% 25% 12% 0% 14% 24%
Datafolha 27 Sep 46% 28% 14% 0% 12% 18%
Vox Populi 27 Sep 49% 24% 13% 0% 14% 25%
CNT/Sensus 26–28 Sep 47.5% 25.6% 11.6% 0.0% 15.3% 21.9%
Vox Populi 26 Sep 49% 24% 12% 0% 15% 25%
Ibope 25–26 Sep 50% 27% 13% 0% 10% 23%
Vox Populi 25 Sep 50% 23% 11% 0% 16% 27%
Vox Populi 24 Sep 50% 24% 10% 0% 16% 26%
Vox Populi 23 Sep 51% 24% 10% 0% 15% 27%
Vox Populi 22 Sep 51% 24% 10% 0% 15% 27%
Ibope 21–23 Sep 50% 28% 12% 0% 10% 22%
Datafolha 21–22 Sep 49% 28% 13% 0% 10% 21%
Vox Populi 21 Sep 52% 25% 9% 0% 14% 27%
Vox Populi 20 Sep 53% 23% 9% 0% 15% 30%
Vox Populi 19 Sep 53% 24% 9% 0% 14% 29%
Vox Populi 18 Sep 51% 24% 9% 0% 16% 27%
Vox Populi 17 Sep 51% 23% 9% 0% 17% 28%
Vox Populi 16 Sep 51% 23% 9% 0% 17% 28%
Vox Populi 15 Sep 52% 22% 9% 0% 17% 30%
Ibope 14–17 Sep 51% 25% 11% 0% 13% 26%
Vox Populi 14 Sep 53% 22% 8% 0% 17% 31%
Datafolha 13–15 Sep 51% 27% 11% 0% 11% 24%
Vox Populi 13 Sep 54% 22% 8% 0% 16% 32%
Vox Populi 12 Sep 53% 23% 9% 0% 15% 30%
Vox Populi 12 Sep 52% 23% 9% 0% 16% 29%
CNT/Sensus 10–12 Sep 50.5% 26.4% 8.9% 0.0% 14.2% 24.1%
Vox Populi 10 Sep 53% 22% 9% 0% 16% 31%
Vox Populi 9 Sep 53% 21% 9% 0% 17% 32%
Datafolha 8–9 Sep 50% 27% 11% 0% 12% 23%
Vox Populi 8 Sep 54% 21% 9% 0% 15% 33%
Vox Populi 7 Sep 56% 21% 8% 0% 15% 35%
Vox Populi 6 Sep 55% 22% 8% 0% 15% 33%
Vox Populi 5 Sep 53% 24% 8% 0% 15% 29%
Vox Populi 4 Sep 53% 24% 8% 0% 15% 29%
Vox Populi 3 Sep 52% 24% 8% 0% 16% 28%
Datafolha 2–3 Sep 50% 28% 10% 0% 12% 22%
Vox Populi 2 Sep 51% 25% 9% 0% 15% 26%
Vox Populi 1 Sep 51% 25% 9% 0% 15% 26%
Ibope 31 Aug–2 Sep 51% 27% 8% 0% 14% 24%
Ibope 24–26 Aug 51% 27% 7% 0% 15% 24%
Datafolha 23–24 Aug 49% 29% 9% 0% 13% 20%
CNT/Sensus 20–22 Aug 46.0% 28.1% 8.1% 1.3%[a] 17.8% 17.9%
Datafolha 20 Aug 47% 30% 9% 0% 14% 17%
Ibope 12–15 Aug 43% 32% 8% 0% 17% 11%
Datafolha 9–12 Aug 41% 33% 10% 0% 16% 8%
Vox Populi 7–10 Aug 45% 29% 8% 0% 18% 16%
Ibope 2–5 Aug 39% 34% 8% 0% 19% 5%
CNT/Sensus 31 Jul–2 Aug 41.6% 31.6% 8.5% 4.4%[b] 18.3% 10%
Ibope 26–29 Jul 39% 34% 7% 0% 19% 5%
Datafolha 20–23 Jul 36% 37% 10% 0% 17% 1%
Vox Populi 17–20 Aug 41% 33% 8% 0% 17% 8%
Datafolha 30 Jun–1 Jul 38% 39% 10% 0% 12% 1%
Ibope 27–30 Jun 39% 39% 10% 0% 13% Tie
Vox Populi 24–26 Jun 40% 35% 8% 0% 17% 5%
CNI/Ibope 19–21 Jun 40% 35% 9% 0% 16% 5%
Ibope 31 May–3 Jun 37% 37% 9% 0% 17% Tie
Datafolha 20–21 May 37% 37% 12% 0% 14% Tie
CNT/Sensus 10–14 May 35.7% 33.2% 8.0% 2.2%[c] 17.3% 2.5%
Vox Populi 8–13 May 38% 35% 7% 0% 22% 3%
Datafolha 15–16 Apr 28% 38% 10% 10%[d] 15% 10%
Ibope 13–16 Apr 29% 36% 8% 8%[e] 19% 7%
CNT/Sensus 5–9 Apr 32.4% 32.7% 8.1% 10.1%[f] 16.7% 0.3%
Vox Populi 30–31 Mar 31% 34% 5% 10%[g] 20% 3%
Datafolha 25–26 Mar 27% 36% 8% 11%[h] 18% 9%
Ibope 6–10 Mar 30% 35% 6% 11%[h] 18% 5%
Datafolha 24–25 Feb 28% 32% 8% 12%[i] 19% 4%
Ibope 6–9 Feb 25% 36% 8% 11%[h] 20% 11%
CNT/Sensus 25–29 Jan 27.8% 33.2% 6.8% 11.9%[j] 20.3% 5.4%
Vox Populi 14–17 Jan 27% 34% 9% 11%[h] 19% 7%
Datafolha 14–18 Dec 2009 23% 37% 8% 13%[k] 19% 14%
Ibope 26–30 Nov 2009 17% 38% 6% 13%[k] 25% 21%
CNT/Sensus 23 Nov 2009 21.7% 31.8% 5.9% 17.5%[l] 23.1% 10.1%
Vox Populi 11 Nov 2009 19% 36% 3% 19%[m] 23% 17%
CNT/Sensus 8 Sep 2009 19% 39.5% 4.8% 9.7%[n] 27% 20.5%
Vox Populi 18 Aug 2009 21% 30% – 29%[o] 20% 9%
Datafolha 16 Aug 2009 17% 38% 3% 26%[p] 18% 21%
Ibope 9 Jun 2009 18% 38% – 19%[q] 25% 20%
Datafolha 28 May 2009 16% 38% – 25%[r] 21% 22%
Datafolha 19 Mar 2009 11% 41% – 27%[s] 21% 25%
Datafolha 28 Nov 2008 8% 41% – 29%[t] 21% 26%
Datafolha 27 Mar 2008 3% 38% – 34%[u] 25% 18%

Second round

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Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Rousseff
PT 		Serra
PSDB 		Abst.
Undec. 		Lead
2010 election 31 Oct 56.05% 43.95% 6.70% 12.1%
Vox Populi 30 Oct 51% 39% 10% 12%
Datafolha 29–30 Oct 51% 41% 8% 10%
CNT/Sensus 28–29 Oct 50.3% 37.6% 12.1% 12.7%
Datafolha 28 Oct 50% 40% 10% 10%
Ibope 27–30 Oct 52% 40% 8% 12%
Datafolha 27 Oct 49% 38% 13% 11%
Ibope 26–28 Oct 52% 39% 9% 13%
CNT/Sensus 23–25 Oct 51.9% 36.7% 11.4% 15.2%
Vox Populi 23–24 Oct 49% 38% 13% 11%
Datafolha 21 Oct 50% 40% 10% 10%
CNT/Sensus 18–19 Oct 46.8% 41.8% 11.4% 5.0%
Ibope 17–20 Oct 51% 40% 9% 11%
Vox Populi 15–17 Oct 51% 39% 10% 12%
Datafolha 14–15 Oct 47% 41% 12% 6%
CNT/Sensus 11–13 Oct 46.8% 42.7% 10.5 4.1%
Ibope 11–13 Oct 49% 43% 8% 6%
Vox Populi 10–11 Oct 48% 40% 12% 8%
Datafolha 8 Oct 48% 41% 11% 7%

Notes

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  1. ^ Eymael (PSDC) with 0.3%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
  2. ^ Ivan Pinheiro (PCB) with 0.1%; Eymael (PSDC) with 0.5%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 1.7%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.1%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1.9%
  3. ^ Eymael (PSDC) with 1.1%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda Sampaio (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
  4. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 9%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1%
  5. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 8%
  6. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10.1%
  7. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10%
  8. ^ a b c d Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11%
  9. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%
  10. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11.9%
  11. ^ a b Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%
  12. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17.5%
  13. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 6%
  14. ^ Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 9.7%
  15. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
  16. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 14%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
  17. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 7%
  18. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 10%
  19. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 16%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 11%
  20. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%
  21. ^ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 20%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%

References

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  1. ^ (in Portuguese) "Confira o calendário eleitoral 2010". Terra.
  2. ^ Colitt, Raymond. "Key dates in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
  3. ^ Barrionuevo, Alexei. "The Health of a Likely Presidential Candidate Comes Under Brazil's Microscope". The New York Times, May 23, 2009. Accessed June 14, 2009.
  4. ^ Colitt, Raymond. "Positions of Brazil's leading candidates". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
  5. ^ Freedom House (July 16, 2009). "Freedom in the World 2009 - Brazil". UNHCR. Archived from the original on July 24, 2011. Retrieved May 14, 2010. In early 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (...) forged a three-party, centre-right coalition around his Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB).
  6. ^ a b c Colitt, Raymond. "Key names in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. December 17, 2010.
  7. ^ Segrillo, Angelo (2004). "A confusão esquerda-direita no mundo pós-Muro de Berlim" [The left-right confusion in the post-Berlin Wall world]. Dados (in Portuguese). 47: 615–632. doi:10.1590/S0011-52582004000300006. ISSN 0011-5258. Most analysts defined PSDB as center-left as of its foundation (...) The story changed after 1994, with the election of PSDB to the Presidency. A rhetoric of overcoming the classical ideological divisions (...) was one of the justifications for the grand parliamentary alliance center and right-wing parties (...). As a matter of fact, after the 1994 election, most analysts starting defining PSDB as a centrist party along with PMDB
  8. ^ "Ciro Gomes diz que decisão do PSB foi 'erro tático'". 27 April 2010.
  9. ^ a b (in Portuguese) Faria, Tales. "PSol aprova resolução para se afastar de Marina Silva". Último Segundo. December 8, 2009.
  10. ^ (in Portuguese) Agência Estado. "PV já articula apoio à candidatura de Marina Silva". August 14, 2009. Globo.com. Retrieved on 2009-08-15.
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