Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but he eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Gordon Brown has since maintained that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader after the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally[clarification needed] in the European parliament elections of 2009, and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Gordon Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May 2010, Gordon Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that David Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making their leader Nick Clegg deputy prime minister.

Background[edit]

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[2][3][4]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005[edit]

Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.[5]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.

Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government.[6]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[7]

After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.

Exit poll[edit]

At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[8] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[9]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[10] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[9]

Graphical summaries[edit]

The following graph shows ICM poll results since the last general election. Results for Conservative are in Blue, Labour in Red, Liberal Democrat Gold and Others in Grey. Other polling houses may show different results, and all polls are subject to a margin of error and possible house bias.

UK election opinion 2005-2010.png

The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

UK General Election 2010 YouGov Polls Graph.png

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

ComRes Graph Election 2010.JPG

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
6 May Election Results (GB only) 29.7% 36.9% 23.6% 9.8% 7.2%
5 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,216 29% 36% 27% 8% 7%
4–5 May YouGov/The Sun 6,483 28% 35% 28% 9% 7%
4–5 May Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 4,014 29% 35% 27% 7% 6%
4–5 May Populus/The Times 2,505 28% 37% 27% 8% 9%
4–5 May Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,283 24% 36% 29% 11% 7%
4–5 May Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,383 27% 35% 26% 12% 8%
4–5 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,025 28% 37% 28% 7% 9%
3–4 May ICM/The Guardian 1,527 28% 36% 26% 10% 8%
3–4 May YouGov/The Sun 1,461 30% 35% 24% 11% 5%
29 Apr–4 May TNS-BMRB 1,864 27% 33% 29% 11% 4%
28 Apr–4 May Harris Interactive/Metro 786 26% 36% 28% 10% 8%
2–3 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8%
2–3 May YouGov/The Sun 1,455 28% 35% 28% 9% 7%
30 Apr – 3 May Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,870 28% 33% 27% 12% 5%
1–2 May YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,475 28% 34% 29% 9% 5%
1–2 May ComRes/ITV/The Independent 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8%
30 Apr – 2 May ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,026 28% 33% 28% 12% 5%
30 Apr – 1 May YouGov/Sunday Times[permanent dead link] 1,483 27% 35% 28% 10% 7%
30 Apr – 1 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,019 28% 38% 25% 9% 10%
30 Apr – 1 May BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,136 27% 34% 30% 9% 4%
30 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,412 28% 34% 28% 10% 6%
30 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,019 29% 36% 27% 8% 7%
29–30 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express 1,874 23% 35% 29% 13% 6%
29–30 Apr Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 1,020 24% 33% 32% 11% 1%
29 Apr The third Prime Ministerial debate
28–29 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,623 27% 34% 28% 11% 6%
27–28 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,530 27% 34% 31% 8% 3%
26–27 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,598 29% 33% 28% 10% 4%
26–27 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,006 29% 36% 26% 9% 7%
26–27 Apr Populus/The Times 1,510 27% 36% 28% 8% 8%
21–27 Apr TNS-BMRB 2,078 27% 34% 30% 9% 4%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,491 28% 33% 29% 10% 4%
25–26 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,005 29% 33% 29% 9% 4%
23–26 Apr Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,942 25% 34% 28% 13% 6%
23–26 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/The Economist 2,433 23% 33% 30% 14% 3%
20–26 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,678 25% 32% 30% 13% 2%
24–25 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,466 28% 34% 30% 8% 4%
24–25 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,003 28% 32% 31% 9% 1%
23–25 Apr ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,031 28% 33% 30% 8% 3%
23–24 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,412 27% 35% 28% 9% 7%
23–24 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,006 28% 34% 29% 9% 5%
23–24 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,139 26% 34% 30% 10% 4%
23 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,020 26% 35% 31% 8% 4%
23 Apr Ipsos MORI/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,245 30% 36% 23% 11% 6%
22–23 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,381 29% 34% 29% 8% 5%
22–23 Apr Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 1,048 26% 34% 29% 11% 5%
22 Apr The second televised Prime Ministerial debate
21–22 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,576 29% 34% 28% 9% 5%
20–21 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,545 27% 33% 31% 9% 2%
19–20 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,595 26% 31% 34% 9% 3%
19–20 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 1,953 23% 32% 33% 12% 1%
19–20 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,015 25% 35% 27% 13% 8%
19–20 Apr Populus/The Times[permanent dead link] 1,501 28% 32% 31% 9% 1%
18–20 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Standard 1,253 28% 32% 32% 8% Tie
14–20 Apr TNS-BMRB 1,953 29% 34% 30% 7% 4%
18–19 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,012 26% 35% 26% 13% 9%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,509 27% 33% 31% 8% 2%
16–19 Apr Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,957 26% 32% 29% 13% 3%
16–19 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 24% 32% 32% 12% Tie
14–19 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,792 26% 31% 30% 13% 1%
17–18 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,003 28% 32% 28% 12% 4%
17–18 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,433 26% 32% 33% 8% 1%
16–18 Apr ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,024 28% 33% 30% 9% 3%
16–17 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,149 28% 31% 32% 9% 1%
16–17 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times[permanent dead link] 1,490 30% 33% 29% 8% 3%
16–17 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,006 27% 31% 29% 13% 2%
15–16 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,290 28% 33% 30% 9% 3%
15 Apr ComRes/ITV News 4,032 28% 35% 24% 13% 7%
15 Apr The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate
14–15 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,033 29% 34% 27% 10% 5%
14–15 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,490 31% 37% 22% 10% 6%
13–14 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,578 32% 41% 18% 9% 9%
12–13 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,001 29% 35% 21% 15% 6%
12–13 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,583 31% 39% 20% 9% 8%
8–13 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 1,523 27% 36% 23% 14% 9%
7–13 Apr TNS-BMRB[permanent dead link] 1,916 33% 36% 22% 9% 3%
12 Apr Populus/The Times 1,525 33% 36% 21% 9% 3%
11–12 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,002 31% 36% 19% 14% 5%
11–12 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,006 28% 38% 22% 12% 10%
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,493 33% 39% 20% 8% 6%
9–12 Apr Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,825 31% 39% 17% 13% 8%
10–11 Apr ComRes/ITV News/The Independent 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
10–11 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,455 31% 37% 20% 12% 6%
9–11 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,024 31% 37% 20% 11% 6%
9–10 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,431 32% 40% 18% 10% 8%
9–10 Apr ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror 1,001 32% 39% 16% 13% 7%
9–10 Apr BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,051 31% 38% 20% 11% 7%
8–9 Apr YouGov/The Sun[permanent dead link] 1,527 30% 40% 20% 10% 10%
7–8 Apr Harris Interactive/Daily Mail 1,012 27% 37% 22% 14% 10%
7–8 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,626 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
7 Apr ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,032 30% 38% 21% 10% 8%
6–7 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,484 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
6–7 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,193 26% 37% 22% 14% 11%
6 Apr Populus/The Times 1,507 32% 39% 21% 8% 7%
6 Apr Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces his intention to seek a general election to be held on 6 May 2010
5–6 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,456 32% 40% 17% 11% 8%
31 Mar-6 Apr Harris Interactive/Metro 2,080 28% 37% 20% 15% 9%
4–5 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,620 31% 41% 18% 11% 10%
2–5 Apr Opinium/Daily Express 1,903 29% 39% 17% 15% 10%
1–3 Apr ICM/Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,001 33% 37% 21% 9% 4%
1–2 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,503 29% 39% 20% 12% 10%
31 Mar-1 Apr Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express 1,991 27% 38% 20% 15% 11%
31 Mar-1 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,552 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
30–31 Mar ICM/Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,003 29% 38% 23% 10% 9%
30–31 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,615 32% 38% 19% 11% 6%
30–31 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,013 28% 37% 22% 13% 9%
29–30 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,681 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
24–30 Mar TNS-BMRB 1,819 33% 38% 19% 10% 5%
28–29 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,614 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%
26–29 Mar Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,780 28% 38% 18% 16% 10%
23–29 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,133 27% 37% 19% 17% 10%
26–28 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,001 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
25–26 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,533 32% 37% 19% 13% 5%
25–26 Mar BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 800 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
24–25 Mar ICM/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,003 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
24–25 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,483 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
23–24 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,554 34% 36% 17% 13% 2%
22–23 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,756 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
21–22 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,560 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
19–22 Mar Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror 1,503 30% 35% 21% 14% 5%
19–22 Mar Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,975 30% 37% 15% 18% 7%
17–22 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 2,117 28% 35% 17% 20% 7%
18–19 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,547 31% 38% 19% 13% 7%
17–18 Mar ICM/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,002 32% 38% 19% 10% 6%
17–18 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,671 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
16–17 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,676 32% 36% 20% 11% 4%
15–16 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,003 26% 39% 21% 15% 13%
15–16 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,460 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
10–16 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,934 28% 36% 18% 18% 8%
14–15 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,466 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
12–15 Mar Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,951 28% 39% 16% 17% 11%
12–14 Mar ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
11–12 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,507 33% 37% 17% 12% 4%
10–11 Mar ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,007 31% 38% 21% 10% 7%
10–11 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,434 34% 37% 17% 12% 3%
9–10 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,473 32% 37% 17% 14% 5%
9–10 Mar Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,003 26% 39% 18% 17% 13%
8–9 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,524 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
7–8 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,747 34% 39% 16% 11% 5%
5–8 Mar Opinium/Daily Express[permanent dead link] 1,960 30% 37% 16% 16% 7%
3–8 Mar Harris Interactive/Metro 1,498 29% 37% 18% 16% 8%
4–5 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,558 33% 38% 17% 12% 5%
4–5 Mar BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 5,655 34% 36% 18% 12% 2%
3–4 Mar ICM/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,005 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
3–4 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,640 32% 38% 17% 13% 6%
2–3 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,661 32% 38% 19% 12% 6%
25 Feb – 3 Mar TNS-BMRB 1,973 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
1–2 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,479 33% 38% 16% 13% 5%
28 Feb-1 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,505 32% 39% 17% 12% 7%
26–28 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,005 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
25–26 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,436 35% 37% 17% 11% 2%
24–25 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,472 33% 39% 16% 12% 6%
23–24 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,473 32% 38% 19% 10% 6%
18–24 Feb TNS-BMRB 1,954 32% 36% 21% 12% 4%
22–23 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,469 32% 38% 17% 12% 6%
21–22 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,578 33% 39% 17% 12% 6%
19–22 Feb Ipsos MORI/Daily Telegraph 1,533 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
16–22 Feb Harris Interative/Metro 918 30% 39% 22% 9% 9%
19–21 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
18–19 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,472 33% 39% 17% 11% 6%
16–19 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 4,004 26% 38% 19% 16% 12%
17–18 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,558 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%
16–17 Feb ComRes/Theos 1,085 30% 38% 20% 11% 8%
16–17 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 26% 40% 18% 16% 14%
16–17 Feb YouGov/The Sun 2,145 30% 39% 18% 13% 9%
10–11 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,009 29% 40% 21% 10% 11%
9–10 Feb Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 25% 38% 20% 16% 13%
5–7 Feb Populus/The Times 1,502 30% 40% 20% 11% 10%
3–4 Feb ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,001 30% 39% 20% 11% 9%
29–31 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,001 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
29–30 Jan BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 1,524 30% 39% 18% 13% 9%
28–29 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,054 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
26–28 Jan YouGov/The People 2,044 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
26–28 Jan Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror 1,001 32% 40% 16% 12% 8%
26–27 Jan Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 24% 40% 19% 16% 16%
22–24 Jan ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,000 29% 40% 21% 10% 11%
20–21 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror 1,004 29% 38% 19% 14% 9%
14–15 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,033 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
13–14 Jan ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,005 29% 42% 19% 10% 13%
9–10 Jan Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com[permanent dead link] 2,010 24% 40% 20% 17% 16%
8–10 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 28% 41% 19% 12% 13%
6–7 Jan ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,003 30% 40% 18% 12% 10%
6–7 Jan YouGov/The Sun 2,832 30% 42% 16% 12% 12%
5–6 Jan YouGov/The Sun 4,167 31% 40% 17% 12% 9%

2009[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
29–30 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,848 30% 40% 17% 12% 10%
19–20 Dec ComRes/The Independent 1,006 29% 38% 19% 14% 9%
16–18 Dec Angus Reid Strategies/Political Betting.com 2,010 24% 40% 20% 15% 16%
15–17 Dec YouGov/The People 2,052 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
11–13 Dec ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,009 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
11–13 Dec Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,017 26% 43% 20% 12% 17%
10–11 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,044 31% 40% 16% 13% 9%
10–11 Dec BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,036 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
9–10 Dec ComRes/The Independent on Sunday[permanent dead link] 1,001 24% 41% 21% 14% 17%
8–10 Dec Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,002 23% 40% 19% 19% 17%
4–6 Dec Populus/The Times 1,505 30% 38% 20% 12% 8%
3–4 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,095 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
2–3 Dec ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,001 29% 40% 19% 12% 11%
27–29 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,003 27% 37% 20% 16% 10%
24–26 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,004 29% 39% 19% 13% 10%
20–23 Nov Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com 2,004 22% 39% 21% 18% 17%
13–15 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,006 31% 37% 17% 13% 6%
13–15 Nov ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,010 29% 42% 19% 10% 13%
12–13 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 2,026 27% 41% 18% 14% 14%
12 Nov Glasgow North East by-election
11–12 Nov ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,007 25% 39% 17% 19% 14%
6–8 Nov Populus/The Times 1,504 29% 39% 18% 14% 10%
4–6 Nov Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com[permanent dead link] 2,000 24% 38% 20% 17% 14%
4–5 Nov YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,021 27% 41% 17% 16% 14%
28–29 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,007 25% 42% 21% 13% 17%
27–29 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,024 28% 41% 16% 15% 13%
23–25 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,004 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
22–23 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,314 27% 40% 19% 14% 13%
16–18 Oct ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,002 27% 44% 18% 11% 17%
16–18 Oct Ipsos MORI 996 26% 43% 19% 11% 17%
15–16 Oct Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com[permanent dead link] 2,077 23% 40% 20% 15% 17%
15–16 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 2,025 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
14–15 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,008 28% 40% 19% 13% 12%
9–11 Oct Populus/The Times 1,509 30% 40% 18% 12% 10%
8–9 Oct BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] 2,136 29% 43% 16% 12% 14%
8–9 Oct BPIX/Daily Mail[11] 2,215 28% 42% 18% 12% 14%
8–9 Oct YouGov/The Sun 2,161 28% 42% 18% 12% 14%
8–9 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,064 27% 44% 17% 12% 17%
7–9 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,008 26% 45% 18% 10% 19%
7–8 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,074 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
6–7 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,039 29% 43% 17% 11% 14%
5–6 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,223 28% 41% 18% 13% 13%
4–5 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,102 27% 40% 20% 13% 13%
3 Oct YouGov/The People 2,027 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
1–2 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,053 29% 41% 17% 13% 12%
30 Sep-1 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,022 28% 40% 19% 13% 12%
30 Sep-1 Oct YouGov/Sky News 1,085 26% 40% 20% 15% 14%
29–30 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,078 30% 37% 21% 12% 7%
28–29 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,024 29% 40% 18% 13% 11%
27–28 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,051 29% 39% 20% 13% 10%
25–27 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,003 24% 36% 25% 15% 11%
25–27 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,003 23% 38% 23% 16% 15%
27 SepP BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 25% 40% 22% 13% 15%
24–25 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,059 24% 40% 21% 14% 16%
23–24 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,057 25% 38% 23% 14% 13%
23–24 Sep ICM/News of the World 1,003 26% 40% 23% 11% 14%
22–24 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,026 26% 39% 20% 15% 13%
22–23 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,036 28% 38% 19% 15% 10%
21–22 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,062 27% 39% 20% 13% 12%
20–21 Sep YouGov/Sky News 1,081 30% 39% 17% 14% 9%
18–20 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,001 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
11–13 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 27% 41% 18% 14% 14%
10–11 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,009 27% 41% 17% 15% 14%
4–6 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,005 24% 40% 21% 15% 16%
4–6 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,573 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
27–28 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,996 28% 42% 17% 14% 14%
25–27 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,199 26% 42% 18% 14% 16%
21–23 Aug Ipsos MORI 1,013 26% 43% 17% 13% 17%
21–23 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,004 25% 41% 19% 14% 16%
19–20 Aug ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,013 24% 41% 18% 16% 17%
13–14 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 2,007 28% 42% 18% 13% 14%
12–13 Aug ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,005 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
28–30 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,334 27% 41% 18% 15% 14%
24–26 July ComRes/The Independent 1,008 24% 42% 18% 16% 18%
23 July Norwich North by-election
21–23 July YouGov/The People 2,218 25% 40% 20% 16% 15%
17–19 July Ipsos MORI 1,012 24% 40% 18% 18% 16%
17–19 July Populus/The Times 1,504 26% 38% 20% 16% 12%
16–17 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,956 25% 42% 18% 15% 17%
15–16 July ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 23% 38% 22% 16% 15%
10–11 July ICM/The Guardian 1,000 27% 41% 20% 12% 14%
1–3 July YouGov/Fabian Society 2,001 26% 39% 19% 17% 13%
26–28 June ComRes/The Independent 1,007 25% 36% 19% 20% 11%
24–26 June YouGov/The People 2,017 24% 40% 17% 19% 16%
23–25 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,233 25% 38% 18% 19% 13%
19–21 June Ipsos MORI 1,004 21% 38% 19% 23% 17%
17–18 June ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,012 22% 39% 18% 21% 17%
10–17 June Harris Interative/Metro 2,081 20% 35% 16% 29% 15%
12–14 June Ipsos MORI/UNISON 1,252 25% 39% 19% 17% 14%
12–14 June ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,006 27% 39% 18% 15% 12%
11–12 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,902 24% 40% 18% 19% 16%
9–10 June Populus/The Times 1,001 24% 36% 19% 21% 12%
8 June 2009 European Parliament election
5–7 June ComRes/The Independent 1,001 22% 38% 20% 20% 16%
5 June 2009 United Kingdom local elections
2–3 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 4,014 21% 37% 19% 23% 16%
29–31 May ComRes/The Independent 1,005 22% 30% 18% 30% 8%
29–31 May Ipsos MORI 1,001 18% 40% 18% 24% 22%
27–29 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 5,016 22% 39% 18% 21% 17%
27–28 May ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,013 22% 40% 25% 13% 15%
27–28 May Populus/The Times 1,001 21% 41% 15% 23% 20%
19–20 May Populus/ITV News 1,000 27% 39% 17% 18% 12%
15–17 May ICM/The Guardian 1,002 28% 39% 20% 14% 11%
17 MayP BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 20% 42% 15% 23% 22%
14–16 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,235 23% 39% 19% 19% 16%
13–14 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 21% 40% 18% 21% 19%
13–14 May YouGov/The Sun 1,814 22% 41% 19% 18% 19%
8–10 May Populus/The Times 1,504 26% 39% 22% 13% 13%
8–9 May BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] Unknown[11] 23% 45% 17% 15% 22%
7–8 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,209 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
24–26 April ComRes/The Independent 1,003 26% 45% 17% 12% 19%
23–24 April YouGov/Sunday People 1,855 27% 45% 17% 12% 18%
22–23 April YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,896 27% 45% 18% 10% 18%
17–19 April Ipsos MORI 1,011 28% 41% 22% 9% 13%
17–19 April ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,005 30% 40% 19% 11% 10%
16–18 April BPIX/The Mail on Sunday[11] 1,889 26% 45% 17% 12% 19%
15–16 April Marketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph 1,007 26% 43% 21% 10% 17%
3–5 April Populus/The Times 1,512 30% 43% 18% 9% 13%
3–4 April YouGov/Sunday Times 2,125 34% 41% 16% 10% 7%
27–29 March ComRes/The Independent 1,002 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
25–26 March ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,003 31% 44% 18% 8% 13%
24–26 March YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,104 31% 41% 17% 11% 10%
18–19 March ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,002 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
13–15 March ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,004 30% 42% 20% 8% 12%
13–15 March Ipsos MORI 1,007 32% 42% 14% 11% 10%
12–13 March YouGov/Sunday Times 1,840 31% 41% 17% 11% 10%
6–8 March Populus/The Times 1,504 30% 42% 19% 9% 12%
27 Feb-1 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,006 28% 44% 17% 12% 16%
24–26 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,063 31% 41% 15% 12% 10%
20–22 Feb ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,004 30% 42% 18% 10% 12%
13–15 Feb Ipsos MORI 1,001 28% 48% 17% 7% 20%
12–13 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,711 32% 44% 14% 10% 12%
11–12 Feb ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,002 25% 41% 22% 12% 16%
6–8 Feb Populus/The Times 1,504 28% 42% 18% 12% 14%
4–5 Feb ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 28% 40% 22% 10% 12%
27–29 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,338 32% 43% 16% 10% 11%
23–25 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 44% 16% 8% 12%
21–22 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,012 28% 43% 16% 13% 15%
16–18 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,005 30% 44% 17% 9% 14%
15–16 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,077 32% 45% 14% 9% 13%
14–15 Jan ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,009 32% 41% 15% 12% 9%
9–11 Jan Populus/The Times 1,500 33% 43% 15% 9% 10%
7–8 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,835 34% 41% 15% 10% 7%

2008[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
19–21 Dec ComRes/The Independent 1,000 34% 39% 16% 11% 5%
16–18 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,241 35% 42% 14% 9% 7%
12–14 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,000 35% 39% 15% 11% 4%
12–14 Dec ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,003 33% 38% 19% 10% 5%
11–12 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,098 35% 41% 15% 10% 6%
10–11 Dec ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,003 36% 37% 14% 12% 1%
10–11 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,007 36% 41% 11% 12% 5%
5–7 Dec Populus/The Times 1,505 35% 39% 17% 9% 4%
28–30 Nov ComRes/The Independent 1,005 36% 37% 17% 10% 1%
27–28 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,017 32% 43% 15% 10% 11%
25–26 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,027 30% 45% 18% 7% 15%
24–25 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,556 36% 40% 14% 10% 4%
19–20 Nov ICM/Sunday Mirror[permanent dead link] 1,010 31% 42% 19% 8% 11%
14–16 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,002 37% 40% 12% 11% 3%
13–14 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 2,080 36% 41% 14% 10% 5%
12–13 Nov ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 32% 43% 12% 13% 11%
7–9 Nov Populus/The Times 1,503 35% 41% 16% 8% 6%
5–6 Nov ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,005 30% 43% 18% 9% 13%
6 Nov Glenrothes by-election
2 NovP BPIX[11] ? 31% 45% 13% 11% 14%
27–29 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,271 33% 42% 15% 10% 9%
24–26 Oct ComRes/The Independent 1,001 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
17–19 Oct Ipsos MORI 1,004 30% 45% 14% 11% 15%
17–19 Oct ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,007 30% 42% 21% 7% 12%
16–18 Oct BPIX[11] 2,046 30% 46% 13% 11% 16%
15–17 Oct YouGov/Daily Mirror 2,029 34% 42% 14% 10% 8%
15–16 Oct ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,005 31% 40% 16% 14% 9%
9–10 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,941 33% 43% 14% 10% 10%
3–5 Oct Populus/The Times 1,503 30% 45% 15% 10% 15%
1–3 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,048 31% 45% 15% 9% 14%
26–28 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,017 29% 41% 18% 12% 12%
24–26 Sep BPIX[11] 2,020 31% 43% 17% 9% 12%
24–25 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,012 32% 41% 18% 9% 9%
23–24 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,536 31% 41% 16% 12% 10%
17–18 Sep ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,010 27% 39% 21% 12% 12%
17–19 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,227 24% 44% 20% 12% 20%
12–14 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,017 24% 52% 12% 12% 28%
10–12 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 2,161 27% 46% 16% 11% 19%
3–4 Sep ComRes/The Independent 1,013 25% 44% 17% 14% 19%
29–31 Aug Populus/The Times 1,506 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
26–27 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,267 26% 45% 16% 13% 19%
20–21 Aug ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,014 25% 46% 16% 13% 21%
15–17 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,002 29% 44% 19% 8% 15%
15–17 Aug Ipsos MORI 1,005 24% 48% 16% 12% 24%
14–15 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,745 25% 45% 18% 12% 20%
6–8 Aug YouGov/News of the World 2,031 26% 46% 17% 11% 20%
31 Jul – 2 Aug BPIX[11] 1,333 24% 47% 16% 13% 23%
30 Jul – 1 Aug ICM/Sunday Express 1,001 29% 45% 16% 10% 16%
29–31 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,949 25% 47% 16% 12% 22%
25–27 July Populus/The Times 1,002 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
23–25 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,120 26% 45% 17% 12% 19%
23–24 July ComRes/The Independent 1,021 24% 46% 18% 12% 22%
24 July Glasgow East by-election
18–20 July Ipsos MORI 1,016 27% 47% 15% 11% 20%
18–20 July ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,007 28% 43% 19% 10% 15%
16–17 July ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,016 24% 45% 16% 15% 21%
10–11 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,832 25% 47% 16% 12% 22%
4–6 July Populus/The Times 1,507 28% 41% 19% 12% 13%
25–26 June ComRes/The Independent 1,007 25% 46% 18% 11% 21%
23–25 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,163 28% 46% 15% 11% 18%
26 June Henley by-election
20–22 June ICM/The Guardian 1,000 25% 45% 20% 10% 20%
18–20 June BPIX[11] 2,385 26% 49% 14% 11% 23%
13–15 June Ipsos MORI 1,012 28% 45% 16% 11% 17%
11–12 June ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,012 26% 44% 17% 13% 18%
12–13 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,769 25% 47% 18% 10% 22%
6–8 June Populus/The Times 1,508 25% 45% 20% 10% 20%
4–5 June ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,023 26% 42% 21% 11% 16%
30 May-1 June ComRes/The Independent 1,006 30% 44% 16% 10% 14%
27–29 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,241 23% 47% 18% 12% 24%
22 May Crewe and Nantwich by-election
16–18 May ICM/The Guardian 1,008 27% 41% 22% 10% 14%
15–16 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,854 25% 45% 18% 12% 20%
14–15 May ComRes/The Independent on Sunday 1,004 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
7–8 May YouGov/The Sun 1,571 23% 49% 17% 11% 26%
2–4 May Populus/The Times 1,509 29% 40% 19% 11% 11%
1 May 2008 United Kingdom local elections
25–27 Apr ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,005 26% 40% 20% 14% 14%
23–24 Apr ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,010 29% 39% 20% 12% 10%
21–23 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,073 26% 44% 17% 13% 18%
17–22 Apr Ipsos-MORI/The Observer 1,059 31% 40% 19% 10% 9%
18–20 Apr ICM/The Gurdian 1,000 34% 39% 19% 8% 5%
16–17 Apr Populus/Sunday Mirror 1,006 30% 40% 19% 11% 10%
10–11 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,755 28% 44% 17% 11% 16%
8–10 Apr Populus/The Times 1,502 33% 39% 17% 6% 6%
2–3 Apr ICM/The Sunday Telegraph 1,010 32% 43% 18% 7% 11%
28–30 Mar ComRes/The Independent 1,004 31% 38% 17% 14% 7%
25–27 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,926 29% 43% 17% 11% 14%
13–18 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,983 35% 40% 18% 7% 5%
14–16 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,003 29% 42% 21% 8% 13%
13–14 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 2,311 27% 43% 16% 13% 16%
12–13 Mar ICM/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
7–9 Mar Populus/The Times 1,502 34% 37% 19% 10% 3%
25–27 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,011 33% 40% 16% 11% 7%
21–26 Feb Ipsos MORI 2,063 37% 39% 16% 8% 2%
22–24 Feb ComRes/The Independent 1,010 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
18–20 Feb YouGov/The Economist 2,118 34% 40% 16% 11% 6%
15–17 Feb ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,003 34% 37% 21% 8% 3%
14–15 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,469 32% 41% 16% 11% 9%
1–3 Feb Populus/The Times 1,504 31% 40% 17% 12% 9%
30–31 Jan ICM/The Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,012 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
25–27 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,003 30% 38% 17% 15% 8%
21–23 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,992 33% 41% 16% 10% 8%
17–22 Jan Ipsos MORI 2,045 38% 37% 16% 9% 1%
18–20 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,009 35% 37% 20% 8% 2%
10–11 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 2,139 33% 43% 14% 11% 10%
9–10 Jan ICM/The Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,011 33% 40% 18% 9% 7%
9–10 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,006 32% 42% 15% 11% 10%
4–6 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 33% 37% 19% 11% 4%

2007[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
18–19 Dec ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,034 34% 39% 18% 9% 5%
17–19 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,060 31% 43% 16% 11% 12%
18 Dec Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
14–16 Dec ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,004 30% 41% 16% 12% 11%
13–14 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,481 32% 45% 14% 10% 13%
7–9 Dec Populus/The Times 1,506 32% 40% 16% 11% 8%
29 Nov-7 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,859 35% 42% 14% 9% 7%
28–29 Nov ICM/News of the World[permanent dead link] 1,011 30% 41% 19% 10% 11%
26–29 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 4,004 32% 43% 14% 11% 11%
23–27 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,933 32% 41% 17% 10% 9%
23–25 Nov ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,009 27% 41% 18% 15% 13%
21–22 Nov ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,005 31% 37% 21% 10% 6%
21–22 Nov YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,600 32% 41% 14% 13% 9%
14–16 Nov YouGov/Sunday Times 1,983 35% 41% 13% 11% 6%
8–10 Nov ICM/Sunday Express[permanent dead link] 1,001 35% 43% 15% 7% 8%
2–4 Nov Populus/The Times 1,503 37% 36% 16% 11% 1%
31 Oct-1 Nov Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,013 35% 40% 13% 12% 5%
26–28 Oct ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,011 35% 40% 18% 7% 5%
26–28 Oct ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,002 33% 42% 15% 10% 8%
22–24 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,105 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
18–23 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,987 41% 40% 13% 6% 1%
10–11 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph[permanent dead link] 1,010 36% 43% 14% 8% 7%
10 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,007 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
5–6 Oct YouGov/Sunday Times 1,757 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
5–7 Oct Populus/The Times 1,008 40% 38% 12% 10% 2%
3–4 Oct YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,741 40% 36% 13% 11% 4%
3–4 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,008 38% 38% 16% 8% Tie
2–3 Oct Populus/The Times 1,000 39% 36% 15% 10% 3%
26–28 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,165 43% 32% 15% 10% 11%
27–28 Sep Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,000 41% 34% 16% 9% 7%
26–27 Sep Populus/The Times 1,002 41% 31% 17% 10% 10%
20–26 Sep Ipsos MORI 1,964 44% 31% 15% 10% 13%
24–25 Sep YouGov/Channel 4 News 1,341 44% 33% 13% 11% 11%
20–22 Sep Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,009 42% 34% 14% 10% 8%
19–21 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,085 39% 33% 16% 12% 6%
19–20 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,029 39% 33% 19% 9% 6%
13–16 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,005 40% 32% 20% 8% 8%
13–14 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,942 39% 34% 15% 12% 5%
11–12 Sep ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,005 37% 34% 15% 14% 3%
31 Aug-2 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 37% 36% 18% 9% 1%
29–31 Aug YouGov/GMTV 2,154 38% 35% 15% 12% 3%
29–30 Aug ComRes/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,016 35% 36% 14% 14% 1%
23–29 Aug Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,941 41% 36% 16% 7% 5%
25–28 Aug Populus/Conservative Party 530 37% 36% 16% 10% 1%
24–28 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,266 41% 33% 14% 12% 8%
22–23 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,016 39% 34% 18% 9% 5%
9–10 Aug YouGov/Sunday Times 1,966 42% 32% 14% 12% 10%
8–10 Aug ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,007 39% 33% 18% 10% 6%
8–9 Aug Ipsos MORI/The Sun 531 38% 33% 15% 14% 5%
27–29 July Populus/The Times 1,511 39% 33% 15% 13% 6%
27–29 July Communicate/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,006 37% 34% 16% 14% 3%
23–25 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,877 41% 32% 16% 11% 9%
20–22 July ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 32% 20% 10% 6%
19–20 July YouGov/Sunday Times 1,664 40% 33% 15% 12% 7%
12–17 July Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,919 41% 35% 15% 9% 6%
4–5 July ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,006 37% 35% 17% 10% 2%
1 July Populus/The Times 1,504 37% 34% 18% 11% 3%
28–29 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,886 38% 35% 15% 12% 3%
27–28 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 39% 35% 18% 8% 4%
27 June Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
22–24 June Communicate/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,005 32% 37% 18% 13% 5%
14–20 June Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,970 39% 36% 15% 10% 3%
14–15 June YouGov/Sunday Times 1,753 35% 37% 14% 14% 2%
1–3 June Populus 1,503 33% 36% 17% 14% 3%
30–31 May ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,014 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
25–28 May Communicate/The Independent[permanent dead link] 1,003 31% 35% 19% 15% 4%
21–23 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,050 33% 39% 15% 13% 6%
18–20 May ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 34% 21% 12% 2%
11–13 May Populus/The Times 1,504 33% 37% 17% 13% 4%
10–11 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,962 34% 38% 15% 14% 4%
3 May 2007 United Kingdom local elections
23–25 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5%
19–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,163 31% 38% 20% 11% 7%
20–22 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,005 30% 37% 21% 12% 7%
13–15 Apr Populus/The Times 1,503 29% 37% 20% 14% 8%
4–5 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,218 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
26–28 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,042 32% 39% 17% 13% 7%
23–25 Mar Communicate[permanent dead link] 1,002 31% 35% 20% 14% 4%
21–22 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,752 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
16–18 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,011 31% 41% 18% 10% 10%
15–16 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,897 32% 38% 16% 14% 6%
9–15 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,983 33% 41% 17% 9% 8%
2–4 Mar Populus/The Times 1,509 30% 38% 18% 14% 8%
23–25 Feb Communicate[permanent dead link] 1,001 29% 40% 17% 14% 11%
19–21 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,292 32% 37% 17% 14% 5%
16–18 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,000 31% 40% 19% 10% 9%
8–9 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5%
2–4 Feb Populus/The Times 1,509 33% 36% 19% 12% 3%
19–29 Jan Ipsos MORI 949 35% 39% 19% 7% 4%
26–28 Jan Communicate[permanent dead link] 1,008 29% 34% 21% 16% 5%
22–24 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,245 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
19–21 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,004 31% 37% 23% 9% 6%
5–7 Jan Populus/The Times 1,507 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%

2006[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
20–22 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,918 32% 37% 15% 15% 5%
18–20 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,874 33% 37% 17% 13% 4%
19–20 Dec Communicate 1,009 37% 36% 14% 14% 1%
15–17 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 40% 18% 10% 8%
9–12 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,938 36% 37% 18% 9% 1%
8–10 Dec Populus/The Times 1,513 33% 34% 19% 14% 1%
28–30 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,979 32% 37% 16% 15% 5%
29–30 Nov ICM/News of the World 1,006 31% 39% 20% 10% 8%
24–26 Nov Communicate 1,004 36% 34% 17% 12% 2%
17–19 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,000 32% 37% 22% 9% 5%
9–14 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,115 33% 35% 20% 12% 2%
3–5 Nov Populus/The Times 1,510 33% 36% 20% 11% 3%
24–26 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,722 32% 39% 16% 13% 7%
20–22 Oct Communicate 977 32% 38% 14% 15% 6%
20–22 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,019 29% 39% 22% 9% 10%
12–16 Oct Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,113 37% 35% 18% 10% 2%
6–8 Oct Populus/The Times 1,515 35% 36% 18% 11% 1%
4–5 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,005 32% 38% 20% 10% 6%
28–30 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,029 35% 36% 19% 11% 1%
27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,849 36% 36% 16% 12% Tie
21–22 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,546 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
19–22 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,733 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
19–20 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,066 32% 36% 22% 10% 4%
13–14 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,003 33% 37% 21% 8% 4%
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,519 31% 38% 18% 14% 7%
6–7 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,504 32% 40% 17% 11% 8%
31 Aug – 6 Sep Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times 1,186 36% 35% 19% 10% 1%
1–3 Sep Populus/The Times 1,504 32% 36% 20% 13% 4%
22–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,757 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
18–20 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,007 31% 40% 22% 8% 9%
24–26 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,633 33% 38% 18% 11% 5%
20–24 July Ipsos MORI 1,897 32% 36% 24% 8% 4%
21–23 July ICM/The Guardian 1,001 35% 39% 17% 9% 4%
7–9 July Populus/The Times 1,512 34% 36% 19% 11% 2%
29 June By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chiselhurst
28–29 June ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 35% 36% 18% 11% 1%
26–28 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,962 33% 39% 18% 10% 6%
22–26 June Ipsos MORI 1,931 33% 36% 21% 10% 3%
21–23 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,009 32% 39% 17% 12% 7%
16–18 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 32% 37% 21% 9% 5%
8–12 June Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,975 34% 41% 18% 7% 7%
2–4 June Populus/The Times 1,505 34% 37% 18% 11% 3%
25–30 May Ipsos MORI 1,984 31% 41% 18% 10% 10%
23–25 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,102 32% 38% 16% 14% 6%
19–21 May ICM/The Guardian 1,001 34% 38% 20% 8% 4%
8–9 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,910 31% 37% 17% 15% 6%
5–7 May Populus/The Times 1,516 30% 38% 20% 11% 8%
4 May 2006 United Kingdom local elections
27 Apr-2 May Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,078 32% 36% 21% 11% 4%
27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,930 32% 35% 18% 15% 3%
21–23 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 34% 24% 10% 2%
20–22 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,006 30% 30% 25% 15% Tie
18–20 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,075 35% 33% 17% 15% 2%
31 Mar-2 Apr Populus/The Times 1,503 36% 34% 21% 10% 2%
27–29 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,873 36% 36% 18% 10% Tie
16–21 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,155 39% 34% 19% 8% 5%
16–18 Mar ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 37% 33% 21% 9% 4%
16–17 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,811 35% 38% 19% 8% 3%
10–12 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,006 37% 34% 21% 8% 3%
3–5 Mar Populus/The Times 1,509 35% 35% 20% 9% Tie
2 Mar Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,019 36% 38% 18% 9% 2%
16–20 Feb Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,143 38% 35% 20% 7% 3%
17–19 Feb ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,002 34% 37% 21% 8% 3%
9–10 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,617 39% 37% 15% 10% 2%
9 Feb Dunfermline and West Fife by-election
3–5 Feb Populus/The Times 1,508 36% 37% 18% 9% 1%
24–26 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,096 40% 39% 13% 9% 1%
19–23 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,163 38% 40% 17% 5% 2%
20–22 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,009 36% 37% 19% 7% 1%
12–17 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Sun 541 39% 39% 15% 7% Tie
6–8 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 39% 36% 16% 9% 3%

2005[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
15–18 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,004 36% 37% 21% 7% 1%
13–15 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,071 36% 38% 18% 8% 2%
9–12 Dec MORI/The Observer 1,000 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
9–11 Dec Populus/The Times 1,521 38% 35% 19% 8% 3%
6–8 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,089 36% 37% 18% 8% 1%
7–8 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 35% 37% 21% 7% 2%
6 Dec David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 Dec YouGov/Sky News 1,612 36% 36% 18% 10% Tie
22–24 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,616 37% 35% 20% 8% 2%
17–22 Nov MORI 1,089 42% 32% 19% 7% 10%
18–20 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,013 38% 33% 19% 10% 5%
4–6 Nov Populus/The Times 1,512 40% 32% 19% 9% 8%
2–3 Nov ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 39% 33% 21% 7% 6%
25–27 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,947 40% 32% 19% 9% 8%
20–25 Oct MORI 1,904 40% 34% 21% 5% 6%
19–20 Oct ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] 1,007 36% 33% 22% 8% 3%
7–9 Oct Populus/The Times 1,509 40% 30% 21% 9% 10%
5–6 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,015 38% 32% 22% 8% 5%
27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,183 40% 32% 20% 9% 8%
22–26 Sep MORI 1,132 39% 29% 25% 7% 10%
16–17 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,013 40% 31% 21% 8% 9%
8–9 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,856 37% 32% 21% 10% 5%
2–4 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 37% 35% 20% 8% 2%
19–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 40% 33% 20% 7% 7%
11–15 Aug MORI 1,191 39% 31% 24% 6% 8%
12–14 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,006 38% 31% 22% 9% 7%
26–28 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 40% 31% 21% 8% 9%
22–24 July Populus/The Times 1,506 40% 28% 22% 10% 12%
14–18 July MORI/The Observer 1,227 41% 28% 25% 6% 13%
15–17 July ICM/The Guardian 1,005 39% 31% 23% 7% 8%
28–30 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 3,717 38% 33% 20% 9% 5%
16–20 June MORI 1,227 42% 29% 21% 8% 13%
17–19 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 31% 23% 8% 7%
24–26 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 38% 31% 23% 8% 7%
19–23 May MORI/Financial Times 1,274 37% 30% 26% 7% 7%
5 May 2005 general election (GB figures)[12] 36.2% 33.2% 22.7% 7.9% 3%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Predicting Results UK Polling Report
  2. ^ Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post The Guardian, 18 April 2010
  3. ^ The Lib Dems surge in Britain Washington Examiner
  4. ^ Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
  5. ^ Anthony Wells (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
  6. ^ YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points UK Polling Report, 29 January 2010
  7. ^ General election 2010: All change for new politics The Guardian, 20 April 2010
  8. ^ Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
  9. ^ a b "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  10. ^ "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
  12. ^ Opinion polling is conducted on a Great Britain basis, and election forecasting also uses GB figures. Northern Ireland, being outside the main party system, is treated separately.

PThe dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

External links[edit]