Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

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In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote[edit]

First round[edit]

Date(s)
administered
Poll source Sample size Marcelo2015.png Maria de Belém Roseira.jpg António Nóvoa 2013-06-19 (reduzida).jpg No image.png EdgarSilva2016.jpg Marisa Matias 2014 crop.jpg PauloMorais(quadrado).png No image.png No image.png Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD, CDS-PP
Belém
Ind.
Nóvoa
Ind.
Neto
Ind.
E. Silva
PCP
Matias
BE
Morais
Ind.
Ferreira
Ind.
V. Silva
Ind.
Sequeira
Ind.
24 January 2016 Election Results 48.7% 52.0 4.2 22.9 0.8 3.9 10.1 2.2 0.2 3.2 0.3 N/A
24 Jan UCP–CESOP[a] 31,018 51.5 4.0 23.5 1.0 4.0 10.0 2.0 0.5 3.0 0.5 N/A
24 Jan Eurosondagem[a] 43,678 52.5 4.1 23.0 1.1 3.6 10.1 2.0 0.5 3.2 0.5 N/A
24 Jan Intercampus[a] 15,481 53.3 4.4 21.3 3.4 10.6 7.0
Exit Polls
16–20 Jan Aximage 1,301 51.5 9.0 22.6 0.8 5.2 6.6 2.3 0.1 1.8 0.1
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,043 51.8 10.1 16.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 2.9 0.5 2.5 0.6
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,025 55.0 13.3 19.0 1.1 3.7 5.3 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 16.1[1]
16–17 Jan UCP–CESOP 3,340 52.0 8.0 22.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 3.0 0.5 2.0 0.5
11–14 Jan Consulmark2 1,004 53.0 10.5 23.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 3.8 0.1 1.5 0.3
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,516 54.8 16.3 16.8 1.1 4.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 17.7[2]
2–5 Jan Aximage 602 52.9 11.8 16.9 1.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 8.8
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,515 52.5 18.1 16.9 1.3 4.7 4.8 1.7
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,183 62.0 14.0 15.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0
28 Nov–2 Dec Aximage 605 54.6 13.4 13.2 0.4 1.9 2.4 1.1 13.0
13–18 Nov Eurosondagem 1,510 48.0 18.9 16.7 2.2 5.2 6.9 1.1 1.0
31 Oct–4 Nov Aximage 603 56.9 13.1 15.3 2.1 12.9
26 Sep–1 Oct Aximage 1,387 29.7 14.7 13.0 1.1 JS (10.3) 31.2[3]
23–30 Sep Intercampus 1,013 49.3 17.0 10.1 1.4 22.2[4]
2015

Hypothetical runoff polling[edit]

Date(s)
administered
Poll source Sample size Marcelo2015.png Rui Rio.jpg Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg Barroso EPP Summit October 2010.jpg Antonio Guterres 1-1.jpg Antonio Vitorino Politico.jpg Carvalho da Silva (squared).jpg António Nóvoa 2013-06-19 (reduzida).jpg Maria de Belém Roseira.jpg JaimeGama2008(qd).jpg
Marcelo
PSD
Rio
PSD
Santana
PSD
Barroso
PSD
Guterres
PS
Vitorino
PS
Silva
Ind.
Nóvoa
Ind.
Belém
PS
Gama
PS
14–20 Jan Intercampus 1,043 68.4 - - - - - - - 31.6 -
67.0 - - - - - - 33.0 - -
14–19 Jan Eurosondagem 2,025 65.2 - - - - - - - 34.8 -
64.8 - - - - - - 35.2 - -
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 1,516 63.7 - - - - - - - 36.3 -
63.0 - - - - - - 37.0 - -
2016
16–21 Dec Eurosondagem 1,515 62.5 - - - - - - - 37.5 -
62.1 - - - - - - 37.9 - -
5–6 Dec UCP–CESOP 1,183 57.0 - - - - - - - 17.0 -
57.0 - - - - - - 17.0 - -
4–8 Feb Aximage 608 65.9 - - - - - - - 34.1 -
65.7 - - - - - - - - 34.3
62.8 - - - - 37.2 - - - -
- 59.6 - - - - - - 40.4 -
- 67.7 - - - - - - - 32.3
- 54.8 - - - 45.2 - - - -
- - 24.9 - - 75.1 - - - -
- - 35.2 - - - - - 64.8 -
- - 34.9 - - - - - - 65.1
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 47.5 - - - 52.5 - - - - -
- 45.9 - - 54.1 - - - - -
- - 44.8 - 55.2 - - - - -
48.0 - - - - 52.0 - - - -
- 46.1 - - - 53.9 - - - -
- - 43.4 - - 56.6 - - - -
61.1 - - - - - - 38.9 - -
- 56.5 - - - - - 43.5 - -
- - 58.3 - - - - 41.7 - -
2015
17–21 Nov Eurosondagem 1,033 - - - 39.7 60.3 - - - - -
47.4 - - - 52.6 - - - - -
- - 41.3 - 58.7 - - - - -
- 44.2 - - 55.8 - - - - -
- - - 40.7 - 59.3 - - - -
48.2 - - - - 51.8 - - - -
- - 44.5 - - 55.5 - - - -
- 47.5 - - - 52.5 - - - -
- - - 55.2 - - 44.8 - - -
64.9 - - - - - 35.1 - - -
- - 58.0 - - - 42.0 - - -
- 64.8 - - - - 35.2 - - -
- - - 69.5 - - - 30.5 - -
70.2 - - - - - - 29.8 - -
- - 65.1 - - - - 34.9 - -
- 70.6 - - - - - 29.4 - -
2014

Leadership polls[edit]

Preferred candidate[edit]

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right[edit]

Date(s)
administered
Poll source Sample size Marcelo2015.png Rui Rio.jpg Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg Barroso EPP Summit October 2010.jpg P Portas 2009.png No image.png No image.png No image.png Manuela Ferreira Leite.jpg PauloMorais(quadrado).png Others/
Undecided
Marcelo
PSD
Rio
PSD
Santana
PSD
Barroso
PSD
Portas
CDS–PP
Mendes
PSD
Esteves
PSD
Beleza
PSD
Leite
PSD
Morais
Ind.
12–16 Jul Aximage 607 46.2 36.7 - 6.5 - - - - - - 10.6
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025 29.6 24.8 16.9 - - - - - - 2.0 26.7
3–6 Mar Aximage[5] 600 49.8 35.7 5.6 - - - - - 7.0 - 1.9
3–6 Mar Aximage[6] 600 39.7 40.2 4.8 - - - - - 8.6 - 6.7
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 609 44.2 32.3 4.2 8.2 - - - 4.3 - - 6.8
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 29.3 26.4 13.3 6.9 4.8 2.5 2.1 - - - 14.7
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 40.0 - 9.3 22.9 - - - 8.3 - - 19.5
2012

Centre-Left/Left[edit]

Date(s)
administered
Poll source Sample size António Costa img 6536.jpg Antonio Guterres 1-1.jpg Socrates2006-2t.jpg Antonio Vitorino Politico.jpg Carvalho da Silva (squared).jpg Ferro Rodrigues.jpg António Nóvoa 2013-06-19 (reduzida).jpg Maria de Belém Roseira.jpg No image.png Guilherme d'Oliveira Martins.jpg No image.png Others/
Undecided
Costa
PS
Guterres
PS
Sócrates
PS
Vitorino
PS
Silva
Ind.
Rodrigues
PS
Nóvoa
Ind.
Belém
PS
Seguro
PS
Oliveira Martins
Ind.
Neto
PS
12–16 Jul Aximage 607 - - - - - - 25.9 32.4 - 18.1 - 23.7
2–7 Jul Eurosondagem 1,025 - - - - - - 33.3 25.0 - - 4.8 36.9
3–6 Mar Aximage[7] 600 - - - 39.5 20.0 - - 25.7 8.8 - - 6.0
3–6 Mar Aximage[6] 600 - - - 42.4 10.7 - - 21.1 13.4 - - 12.4
2015
6–9 Dez Aximage 609 43.8 27.3 - - 6.3 - 3.1 10.4 - - - 9.1
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 26.6 20.9 13.7 10.0 6.5 3.3 2.2 - - - - 16.8
2013
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 33.1 25.4 - - 10.3 - - 15.0 - - - 16.2
2012

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Undecided voters: 16.1
  2. ^ Undecided voters: 17.7
  3. ^ Rui Rio: 21.5
  4. ^ Rui Rio: 15.1
  5. ^ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
  6. ^ a b All voters asked.
  7. ^ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

External links[edit]