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Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election

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In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]

Post-poll surveys, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3]

Opinion polling

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day.

Date published Polling agency Others Leadα Majority
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 283 135 125 148 11
Mar 2019 News Nation 273 133 137 136 1
Mar 2019 ABP News – C voter 264 141 138 123 Hung
Mar 2019 IndiaTV-CNX 285 126 132 159 13
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas 264 165 114 99 Hung
Feb 2019 VDP Associates 242 148 153 94 Hung
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 252 147 144 105 Hung
Jan 2019 ABP News -Cvoter 233 167 143 66 Hung
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy 237 166 140 67 Hung
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 225 167 150 58 Hung
Dec 2018 India Today 257 146 140 111 Hung
Dec 2018 ABP News – C Voter 247 171 125 76 Hung
Dec 2018 India TV – CNX 281 124 138 157 9
Nov 2018 ABP News – C Voter 261 119 163 142 Hung
Oct 2018 ABP News 276 112 155 164 4
Aug 2018 India Today- Karvy 281 122 140 159 9
May 2018 ABP News-CSDS 274 164 105 110 2
Jan 2018 Republic-CVoter 335 89 119 246 63
Jan 2018 India Today 309 102 132 207 37
April–May 2014 General election results 336 60 113 276 64

Vote share

Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 News Nation 34% 28% 38% 6%
Mar 2019 ABP News – C voter[1] 41% 31% 28% 10%
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 38.7% 32.6% 28.7% 6.1%
Jan 2019 Republic TV - Cvoter 37.6% 32.2% 30.2% 5.4%
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy 35% 33% 32% 2%
April–May 2014 General election results 31% 19.3% 49.7% 11.7%

Polling on politicians

Next Prime Minister

Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election

Date published Polling agency Can't say Lead
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee K. Chandrashekar Rao P. Chidambaram Akhilesh Yadav Arvind Kejriwal Naveen Patnaik Sharad Pawar Mayawati Nitish Kumar Sonia Gandhi Mulayam Singh Yadav
Jan 2019 India Today- Karvy 62% 32% 3%  – 3% 3%  –  –  – 7%  –  –  – 12% 34%
Jul 2018 India Today- Karvy 46% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2%  –  –  – 12% 34%
Jan 2018 45% 9% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3%  –  –  – 12% 33%
Jul 2017 21% 4% 6% 4%  – 7% 3%  – 2% 13% 12% 3% 22% 1%
Jan 2017 28% 4% 3% 2% 7% 2% 3% 13% 9% 3% 24% 4%
Aug 2016 23% 4% 4% 2% 12% 3% 3% 13% 9% 3% 21% 2%
Feb 2016 32% 2% 5%  – 10% 1% 3% 8% 15% 2% 15% 17%

Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

Date published Polling agency Lead
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi
Jan 2019 India Today 60% 24% 36%
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 41% 23% 18%
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 56% 36% 20%
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 60% 34% 26%
Jan 2018 66% 28% 38%
2017 69% 26% 43%

Narendra Modi vs Priyanka Gandhi Vadra

Date published Polling agency Lead
Yes No
Feb 2019 ABP news - Cvoter 60% 32% 28%

Approval ratings

Economic performance; compared to previous government

Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Better Worse
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy 49% 28% 23% 21%
Aug 2018 India Today -Karvy 51% 24% 25% 27%
Jan 2018 India Today -Karvy 56% 21% 23% 34%

Issues

Key Issues

Date published Polling agency Unemployment Price rise Corruption Farmers' plight
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy 37% 19% 15% 12%

Farm distress; Low crop causing farm distress

Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Yes No
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy 65% 25% 10% 40%

Jobs; Enough created

Date published Polling agency Don't know Lead
Yes No
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy 42% 46% 12% 4%

Corruption in Rafale deal

Date published Polling agency Yes No Not aware of deal Can't say
Jan 2019 India today - Karvy 30% 32% 23% 15%

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (25)

Date published Polling agency Lead
YSRCP TDP UPA NDA
Jan 2019 Spick Media 22 3 0 0 19
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 19 6 0 0 13
Date published Polling agency
YSRCP TDP UPA NDA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 41% 33% 9.8% 7.2%

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Feb 2019 Great Indian Opinion Poll 1 1 -
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 2  – 2
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 25.3% 37.6% 17.1% 7.7%

Assam (14)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AIUDF
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 8 4 2 4
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 6 7 1 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA AIUDF
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 37.0% 32.40% 12.80% 14.30% 4.60%
Jan 2019 Tv - Cvoter 44.3% 44.6% 2.5% 8.6% 0.3%

Bihar (40)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Spick Media 24 16 08
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 35 5 30
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 34 6 28
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 22 18 4
31 9 22
Jul 2018 Spick Media 9 31 22
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 45.1% 37.5% 17.4% 7.6%

Chhattisgarh (11)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
March 2019 News Nation 5 6 1
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 5 6 1
Oct 2018 Times Now 8 3 5
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 9 2 7
Oct 2018 Times Now 8 3 5
Jul 2018 Spick Media 5 6 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA JCC
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 43.4% 41.1% 7.5% 8.1% 2.3%

Goa (2)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Spick Media - 2 2
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 1 1  –
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 43.7% 38.5% 17.8% 5.2%

Gujarat (26)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
March 2019 News Nation 24 2 22
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 24 2 22
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 54.1% 39.1% 6.8% 15%

Haryana (10)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA INLD
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 7 3 - 4
Nov 2018 Spick Media 3 4 3 1
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 6 3 1 3
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA INLD
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 44.7% 33.6% 17.8% 3.9% 11.1%
Sep 2018 Spick Media 23.47% 30.1% 25.2% 21.2% 4.9%

Himachal Pradesh (4)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 4  – 4
Nov 2018 Spick Media 2 2  –
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 49.5% 38.7% 11.9% 10.2%

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now 2 4 2
Feb 2019 Great Indian Opinion Poll[citation needed] 5 1 4
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 2 4 2
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA JKPDP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 36% 40.6% 13.4% 10% 4.6%

Jharkhand (14)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA JMM JVM
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 5 8 1 3
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 4 5 4 1 1
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA JMM JVM
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 41.9% 46.5% 10.1% 4.6%

Karnataka (28)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Spick Media 13 15 2
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 14 14  –
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 44% 47.9% 8.1% 3.9%

Kerala (20)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UDF LDF NDA
March 2019 News Nation 15 4 1 11
March 2019 Times Now-VMR 16 3 1 12
Jan 2019 Spick Media 13 5 2 8
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 16 4  – 12
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 12 6 2 6
Sep 2018 Spick Media 12 8  – 4
Date published Polling agency Lead
UDF LDF NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 45% 29.20% 21.70% 15.80%
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 43.15% 35.1% 12.7% 10.8%

Madhya Pradesh (29)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 24 5 19
Jan 2019 ABP News -Cvoter 23 6 17
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 18 11 7
Nov 2018 ABP News - C Voters 22 7 15
Oct 2018 Times Now 21 8 13
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 23 6 17
Jul 2018 Spick Media 16 13 3
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 49.20% 39.70% 4.30% 9.5%
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 48.4% 44.1% 7.5% 4.3%

Maharashtra (48)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA SHS UPA NCP
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 28 20 8
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 23 2 23  –
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 22 8 18 4
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 23 5 14 6 9
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 16 2 30 14
36 12 24
22 7 11 8 11
Sep 2018 Spick Media 20 16 12 4
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA SHS UPA NCP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 49.8 42.4% 7.4

Manipur (2)

Date published Polling agency NPF Lead
UPA NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now 1 1 -

Meghalaya (2)

Mizoram (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA MNF NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now 0 1 1

Nagaland (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NPF NDA
March 2019 Times Now-VMR 0 1 1

Odisha (21)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA BJD
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 12  – 9 3
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 13 3 5 6
Oct 2018 Spick Media 1 4 16 12
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 13 2 6 7
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA BJD
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 33.2% 26.2% 30.7% 2.5%

Punjab (13)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas 1 10 2 6
Mar 2019 India TV 3 9 1 6
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 1 12 0 11
Nov 2018 Spick Media 1 8 4 4
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 1 12 0 11
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 34% 44%.7 16.9% 10.7%

Rajasthan (25)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
March 2019 News Nation 17 8 9
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 15 10 5
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 12 13 1
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voters 17 8 9
Oct 2018 Spick Media 10 15 5
Oct 2018 Times Now 24 1 23
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 18 7 11
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 49.4% 44% 6.7% 5.4%

Sikkim (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA SDF NDA
March 2019 Times Now 0 1 1

Tamil Nadu (39)

Date published Polling agency AMMK Lead
UPA NDA
Mar 2019 News Nation 34 5 NA 29
Mar 2019 Times 18 15 6 3
Mar 2019 India TV-CNX 22 15 2 7

Telangana (17)

Date published Polling agency Lead
TRS UPA BJP AIMIM
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 12 1 2 1 12
Jan 2019 Spick Media 17 0 0 0 17
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 16  –  – 1 15
Oct 2018 Spick Media 6 7 3 1 1
Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA TRS AIMIM NDA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 30.30% 41.20% 7.4% 17.60% 10.9%
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 29% 42.4% 7.7% 12.7% 13.4%

Tripura (2)

Date published Polling agency Lead
Left NDA UPA
Mar 2019 Times Now-VMR 0 2 0 2
March 2019 India TV-CNX 1 1 0 -
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 0 2 0 2
Dec 2018 India Today 1 1 0 -

Uttarakhand (5)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2018 Republic Tv - Cvoter 5  – 5
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 4 1 3
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 49.2% 33.5% 17.3% 15.7%

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA SP BSP
March 2019 Times Now-VMR 42 2 36 6
March 2019 News Nation 35 2 43 8
March 2019 India TV-CNX 41 4 35 6
Feb 2019 Spick Media 25 4 51 26
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 27 2 51 24
Jan 2019 ABP News - Cvoter 25 4 51 26
Jan 2019 India Today 18 4 58 40
Jan 2019 ABP News- C Voter 31 5 44 13
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 31 5 44 13
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 36 2 42 6
Average 29 4 47 22
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA SP BSP
Feb 2019 Spick Media 32.73% 13.58% 48.04% 15.31%
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 42% 12.7% 43% 1%

West Bengal (42)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AITC LF
Feb 2019 Spick Media 8 2 16 16  –
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 7 1 34 0 27
Nov 2018 Spick Media 5 4 32 1 27
Nov 2018 ABP News- C Voter 9 1 32  – 23
Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AITC LF
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 18.8% 9.6% 31.47% 29.4% 11.9%

Union territories

Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 1  – 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 47.3% 40.1% 10.4% 7.2%

Chandigarh (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 1  –  – 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA AAP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 47.3% 33.7% 8.6% 10.4% 13.7%

Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 1  – 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv -Cvoter 50.1% 40.2% 9.7% 9.9%

Daman and Diu (1)

Lakshadweep (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 1  – 1
Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA NCP
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 65.1% 2.1% 30.5% 34.6%

Puducherry (1)

Date published Polling agency Lead
UPA NDA
Jan 2019 Spick Media 1  – 1
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 1  – 1
Date published Polling agency Others Lead
UPA NDA
Jan 2019 Republic Tv - Cvoter 49.7% 14.7% 35.6% 35%

NCT of Delhi (7)

Date published Polling agency Lead
NDA UPA AAP
March 2019 News Nation 6 0 1 5
Jan 2019 India TV - CNX 5 1 1 4
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 4  – 3 1


See also

References

  1. ^ "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
  2. ^ Karandikar, Rajeeva. "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences". The Hindu Center. Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  3. ^ Bureau, Our. "What exit polls are really about". @businessline. Retrieved 20 March 2019.

External links