Opinion polling for the 2019 Portuguese legislative election

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In the run up to the 2019 Portuguese legislative election (held on 6 October 2019), various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous legislative election, held on 4 October 2015, to the present day.

Nationwide polling[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Graph showing a 30-day average trendline of Portuguese opinion polls from the election in 2015 to the election in 2019. Each line corresponds to a political party.

Polling[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD PS BE CDS–PP CDU PAN A O Lead
Multidados 18–28 Jul 2019 800 ? 20.3 35.5 14.7 3.3 5.6 7.9 N/A 12.7 15.2
Aximage 12–15 Jul 2019 601 ? 23.6 37.5 9.4 4.9 6.8 4.0 N/A 13.8 13.9
Pitagórica 8–14 Jul 2019 800 ? 21.6 43.2 9.2 6.0 6.8 3.6 1.2 8.4 21.6
Eurosondagem 7–11 Jul 2019 1,011 ? 23.6 37.3 9.0 6.4 6.8 4.3 1.5 11.1 13.7
GfK/Metris 15–27 Jun 2019 801 ? 23 38 11 5 8 4 0 11 15
Aximage 13–19 Jun 2019 605 64.1 23.1 35.6 9.0 6.6 7.0 4.2 0.8 13.7 12.5
Eurosondagem 2–6 Jun 2019 1,008 ? 24.0 37.1 9.1 6.0 6.3 4.8 1.9 10.8 13.1
2019 EP Elections 26 May 2019 N/A 30.7 21.9 33.4 9.8 6.2 6.9 5.1 1.9 14.8 11.5
UCP–CESOP 26 May 2019 4,589 ? 25 39 9 6 8 4 1 8 14
Aximage 16–20 May 2019 622 63.7 25.7 36.5 9.1 6.9 7.3 1.5 1.3 11.7 10.8
UCP–CESOP 16–19 May 2019 1,882 ? 28 39 9 7 8 3 1 5 11
Pitagórica 10–19 May 2019 605 ? 22.5 40.4 8.2 6.1 6.5 3.6 1.5 11.1 17.9
Aximage 3–8 May 2019 601 63.3 27.6 35.4 7.9 7.4 7.2 1.6 1.4 11.5 7.8
Pitagórica 3–13 Apr 2019 605 ? 25.6 37.2 8.3 6.5 6.5 2.8 1.8 11.4 11.6
Eurosondagem 7–11 Apr 2019 1,019 ? 25.0 36.9 7.8 8.4 7.3 2.5 3.5 8.6 11.9
Aximage 30 Mar–1 Apr 2019 602 63.6 27.3 34.6 8.5 8.5 7.0 2.2 1.6 10.3 7.3
Eurosondagem 10–14 Mar 2019 1,020 ? 25.2 37.3 8.1 8.5 7.1 2.4 3.3 8.1 12.1
Aximage 9–13 Mar 2019 600 ? 23.9 36.3 9.2 9.7 6.8 2.2 1.8 10.1 12.4
GfK/Metris 9–21 Feb 2019 801 ? 25 37 8 8 8 3 2 9 12
Aximage 5–10 Feb 2019 602 66.3 24.4 36.4 8.9 9.3 6.3 2.5 1.6 10.6 12.0
Eurosondagem 2–9 Jan 2019 1,010 ? 24.8 40.0 7.6 7.1 7.1 1.9 4.0 7.5 15.2
Aximage 4–7 Jan 2019 608 65.4 24.1 37.7 8.8 9.4 7.2 3.5 1.2 8.1 13.6
Aximage 7–11 Dec 2018 602 66.6 24.7 37.0 10.0 8.7 6.3 N/A N/A 13.3 12.3
Eurosondagem 7–14 Nov 2018 1,018 ? 26.8 41.8 7.7 7.0 7.0 1.8 N/A 7.9 15.0
Aximage 9–12 Nov 2018 603 67.0 26.4 37.8 9.1 7.7 6.2 N/A N/A 12.8 11.4
Aximage 1–3 Oct 2018 601 67.0 24.0 38.9 9.1 9.2 7.4 N/A Did not exist 11.4 14.9
Eurosondagem 5–12 Sep 2018 1,008 ? 27.5 41.4 8.0 7.7 6.9 1.1 7.4 13.9
Aximage 1–2 Sep 2018 603 66.5 24.1 39.9 7.8 9.2 7.1 N/A 11.9 15.8
Aximage 13–16 Jul 2018 600 64.6 27.2 39.0 9.5 7.4 7.0 N/A 9.9 11.8
Eurosondagem 4–11 Jul 2018 1,011 ? 27.3 42.0 7.9 7.5 7.3 1.1 6.9 14.7
Aximage 9–12 Jun 2018 602 67.2 27.8 37.0 10.3 6.3 7.2 N/A 11.4 9.2
Aximage 5–9 May 2018 600 67.2 27.6 37.7 10.0 6.7 7.7 N/A 10.3 10.1
Eurosondagem 3–9 May 2018 1,008 ? 28.0 41.0 8.0 7.0 7.5 1.4 7.1 13.0
Aximage 8–12 Apr 2018 601 68.7 26.7 38.0 10.0 7.0 7.7 N/A 10.6 11.3
Eurosondagem 8–14 Mar 2018 1,010 ? 28.4 41.5 7.7 6.6 7.3 1.5 7.0 13.1
Aximage 2–5 Mar 2018 605 67.3 27.0 39.2 10.0 5.4 7.4 N/A 11.0 12.2
Aximage 3–6 Feb 2018 603 66.4 26.4 40.6 8.8 6.2 7.7 N/A 10.3 14.2
Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 2018 1,018 ? 26.9 41.3 8.5 7.0 6.9 1.8 7.6 14.4
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2018 600 65.8 26.2 40.2 9.2 6.2 6.8 N/A 11.4 14.0
Eurosondagem 6–12 Dec 2017 1,017 ? 27.9 40.2 8.6 6.9 7.0 1.7 7.7 12.3
Aximage 1–4 Dec 2017 603 67.4 26.1 39.9 9.3 6.5 7.5 N/A 10.7 13.8
Eurosondagem 8–15 Nov 2017 1,010 ? 28.4 40.0 8.7 6.6 6.9 1.7 7.7 11.6
Aximage 4–6 Nov 2017 600 67.4 25.5 39.1 8.7 6.7 8.6 N/A 11.4 13.6
Aximage 14–17 Oct 2017 603 64.5 23.8 41.9 9.0 5.9 7.7 N/A 11.7 18.1
Eurosondagem 4–11 Oct 2017 1,011 ? 28.0 41.0 9.0 6.0 7.5 1.4 7.1 13.0
2017 Local Elections 1 Oct 2017 N/A 55.0 30.3 38.7 3.3 4.1 9.5 1.1 13.0 8.4
Aximage 26–28 Sep 2017 600 65.3 25.8 43.7 7.8 4.1 7.8 N/A 10.8 17.9
Eurosondagem 31 Aug–6 Sep 2017 1,007 ? 28.7 40.3 8.4 6.8 7.3 1.5 7.0 11.6
Aximage 29–30 Aug 2017 597 65.0 22.9 43.0 9.1 5.2 7.8 N/A 12.0 20.1
Eurosondagem 27 Jul–2 Aug 2017 1,011 ? 28.1 40.8 8.4 6.9 7.6 1.1 7.1 12.7
Aximage 6–11 Jul 2017 604 66.4 22.9 44.0 10.1 5.3 7.8 N/A 9.9 21.1
Eurosondagem 28 Jun–5 Jul 2017 1,008 ? 28.6 40.4 8.5 6.2 7.8 1.3 7.2 11.8
Aximage 7–11 Jun 2017 601 66.4 24.6 43.7 9.7 4.6 7.8 N/A 9.6 19.1
Eurosondagem 1–7 Jun 2017 1,010 ? 29.0 40.0 8.6 6.4 7.5 1.7 6.8 11.0
Eurosondagem 3–10 May 2017 1,005 ? 29.0 39.0 9.0 6.9 7.6 1.2 7.3 10.0
Aximage 5–8 May 2017 603 64.7 24.5 42.4 10.0 5.4 7.7 N/A 10.0 17.9
Eurosondagem 30 Mar–5 Apr 2017 1,003 ? 29.3 39.3 9.0 6.4 7.5 1.4 7.1 10.0
Aximage 2–4 Apr 2017 600 ? 24.6 42.0 9.5 4.8 7.6 N/A 11.5 17.4
Eurosondagem 1–8 Mar 2017 1,011 ? 28.8 38.3 9.2 7.2 8.0 1.8 6.7 9.5
Aximage 4–6 Mar 2017 608 65.5 26.0 41.7 9.2 5.3 6.8 N/A 11.0 15.7
Aximage 5–8 Feb 2017 601 65.4 26.4 42.0 8.4 5.0 7.9 N/A 10.3 15.6
Eurosondagem 1–8 Feb 2017 1,017 ? 29.2 37.8 9.2 7.0 8.3 1.1 7.4 8.6
Eurosondagem 5–11 Jan 2017 1,010 ? 30.0 37.3 9.5 6.9 7.8 1.6 6.9 7.3
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2017 603 66.5 25.1 41.7 9.1 6.8 6.9 N/A 10.4 16.6
Eurosondagem 7–14 Dec 2016 1,016 ? 30.0 38.0 9.1 6.8 7.7 1.6 6.8 8.0
Aximage 2–4 Dec 2016 605 64.3 27.4 40.1 8.3 6.7 7.5 N/A 10.0 12.7
UCP–CESOP 19–22 Nov 2016 977 ? 30 43 8 6 6 2 5 13
Eurosondagem 2–9 Nov 2016 1,011 ? 30.4 37.0 9.7 6.6 8.2 1.1 7.0 6.6
Aximage 31 Oct–1 Nov 2016 601 63.4 28.7 38.3 9.0 6.4 7.3 N/A 10.3 9.6
Eurosondagem 6–12 Oct 2016 1,010 ? 30.7 36.3 9.5 7.0 8.3 1.3 6.9 5.6
Aximage 1–3 Oct 2016 608 ? 30.6 37.7 8.7 6.1 7.5 N/A 9.4 7.1
Eurosondagem 7–14 Sep 2016 1,009 ? 32.1 36.0 8.9 6.9 8.1 1.4 6.5 3.9
Aximage 2–5 Sep 2016 603 65.3 30.1 39.8 10.6 4.6 6.6 N/A 8.3 9.7
Eurosondagem 26 Jul–2 Aug 2016 1,005 ? 32.5 35.5 9.7 6.0 7.8 1.4 7.1 3.0
Aximage 15–17 Jul 2016 606 65.0 30.5 39.0 10.0 4.9 6.8 N/A 8.8 8.5
Eurosondagem 30 Jun–6 Jul 2016 1,023 ? 32.5 35.0 9.5 6.5 8.0 1.6 6.9 2.5
Eurosondagem 1–7 Jun 2016 1,025 ? 31.9 35.3 9.9 6.8 8.1 1.5 6.5 3.4
Aximage 30 May–1 Jun 2016 603 65.5 32.1 38.5 10.2 4.2 6.7 N/A 8.3 6.4
Eurosondagem 5–11 May 2016 1,031 ? 31.7 34.8 9.6 7.0 8.4 1.7 6.8 3.1
Aximage 7–9 May 2016 600 63.7 32.3 38.5 9.7 4.0 6.6 N/A 8.9 6.2
Eurosondagem 7–13 Apr 2016 1,026 ? 32.0 34.3 9.7 7.7 8.3 1.3 6.7 2.3
Aximage 2–3 Apr 2016 601 63.9 33.5 35.6 10.0 4.2 6.2 N/A 10.5 2.1
Eurosondagem 3–9 Mar 2016 1,005 ? 32.0 35.0 9.2 8.0 7.8 1.4 6.6 3.0
Aximage 1–4 Mar 2016 609 64.4 36.1 33.8 11.3 2.2 6.6 N/A 10.0 2.3
Eurosondagem 4–10 Feb 2016 1,010 ? 32.5 33.6 10.0 7.5 8.4 1.2 6.8 1.1
Aximage 30–31 Jan 2016 606 67.0 36.1 34.8 10.9 2.7 6.6 N/A 8.9 1.3
Aximage 16–20 Jan 2016 1,301 65.4 35.7 35.3 10.0 3.3 6.8 N/A 8.9 0.4
Eurosondagem 1–6 Jan 2016 1,016 ? 32.1 33.3 10.1 7.5 8.5 1.5 7.0 1.2
Aximage 2–5 Jan 2016 602 64.1 36.2 35.5 9.8 3.6 5.6 N/A 9.3 0.7
Eurosondagem 3–9 Dec 2015 1,015 ? 33.0 33.7 9.5 8.0 7.8 1.3 6.7 0.7
Aximage 28 Nov–2 Dec 2015 605 64.8 35.3 34.0 12.1 4.1 7.4 N/A 7.1 1.3
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PàF PS BE CDS–PP CDU PAN O Lead
UCP–CESOP 5–6 Dec 2015 1,183 64 41 34 11 [a] 7 2 5 7
Aximage 31 Oct–4 Nov 2015 603 63.3 40.1 32.9 10.5 [a] 8.0 2.0 6.5 7.2
Eurosondagem 29 Oct–3 Nov 2015 1,036 ? 40.8 32.5 10.0 [a] 8.0 1.5 7.2 8.3
Intercampus 14–17 Oct 2015 807 ? 41.3 32.7 11.0 [a] 7.7 N/A 7.3 8.6
2015 Legislative Election 4 Oct 2015 N/A 55.8 38.6
107
32.3
86
10.2
19
[a] 8.3
17
1.4
1
9.2
0
6.3

Constituency polling[edit]

Porto district[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD PS BE CDS–PP CDU PAN O Lead
Eurosondagem 2–4 Jul 2019 1,005 ? 25.0
11/12
38.7
17/18
8.9
4
5.5
2
5.4
2
5.0
2
11.5
0
13.7
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PàF PS BE CDS–PP CDU PAN O Lead
2015 Legislative Election 4 Oct 2015 N/A 60.3 39.6
17
32.7
14
11.1
5
[a] 6.8
3
1.6
0
8.2
0
6.9

Leadership polls[edit]

Preferred Prime Minister[edit]

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Rui Rio vs António Costa[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Rui Rio (cropped).jpg António Costa 2014 (cropped) 2.jpg N Both/
O
NO Lead
Aximage 12–15 Jul 2019 27.2 55.3 N/A N/A N/A 28.1
Aximage 13–19 Jun 2019 25.7 54.0 N/A N/A N/A 28.3
Aximage 3–8 May 2019 29.5 52.8 N/A N/A N/A 23.3
Aximage 30 Mar–1 Apr 2019 30.5 51.0 N/A N/A N/A 20.5
Aximage 9–13 Mar 2019 27.7 53.8 N/A N/A N/A 26.1
Aximage 5–10 Feb 2019 31.4 52.7 N/A N/A N/A 21.3
Aximage 4–7 Jan 2019 26.9 55.4 N/A N/A N/A 28.5
Aximage 7–11 Dec 2018 28.1 55.3 15.3 0.6 0.7 27.2
Aximage 9–12 Nov 2018 30.3 53.5 N/A N/A N/A 23.2
Aximage 1–3 Oct 2018 30.1 55.3 N/A N/A N/A 25.2
Aximage 1–2 Sep 2018 28.0 57.6 N/A N/A N/A 29.6
Aximage 13–16 Jul 2018 30.1 57.0 N/A N/A N/A 26.9
Aximage 9–12 Jun 2018 31.2 57.3 N/A N/A N/A 26.1
Aximage 5–9 May 2018 29.0 59.8 N/A N/A N/A 30.8
Aximage 8–12 Apr 2018 26.4 61.8 N/A N/A N/A 35.4
Aximage 2–5 Mar 2018 27.8 62.9 N/A N/A N/A 35.1
Aximage 3–6 Feb 2018 22.0 64.1 N/A N/A N/A 42.1
Eurosondagem 8–10 Jan 2018 25.1 51.3 N/A N/A 23.6 26.2
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2018 33.0 55.7 8.1 1.2 2.0 22.7
Eurosondagem 4–6 Dec 2017 26.9 51.9 N/A N/A 21.2 25.0
Aximage 1–4 Dec 2017 32.8 60.1 4.1 0.6 2.4 27.3
Eurosondagem 6–8 Nov 2017 25.0 52.0 N/A N/A 23.0 27.0
Aximage 4–6 Nov 2017 34.1 56.2 6.4 0.7 2.6 22.1
Aximage 31 Oct–1 Nov 2016 43.0 48.1 2.6 1.3 5.0 5.1

Passos Coelho vs António Costa[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Pedro Passos Coelho 2011 (cropped).jpg António Costa 2014 (cropped) 2.jpg N Both/
O
NO Lead
Aximage 14–17 Oct 2017 20.8 67.6 10.1 0.4 1.1 46.8
Aximage 26–28 Sep 2017 24.4 64.0 N/A N/A N/A 39.6
Aximage 29–30 Aug 2017 23.4 65.8 9.2 0.9 0.9 42.4
Aximage 6–11 Jul 2017 23.2 66.3 N/A N/A N/A 43.1
Aximage 7–11 Jun 2017 22.2 69.1 6.8 0.7 1.2 46.9
Aximage 5–8 May 2017 23.3 66.2 8.4 0.7 1.4 42.9
Aximage 2–4 Apr 2017 24.1 67.5 N/A N/A N/A 43.4
Aximage 4–6 Mar 2017 26.2 63.6 8.8 0.6 0.8 37.4
Aximage 5–8 Feb 2017 25.0 66.1 7.5 0.7 0.7 41.1
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2017 23.7 64.3 N/A N/A N/A 40.6
Aximage 2–4 Dec 2016 26.5 61.6 10.5 0.6 0.8 35.1
Aximage 31 Oct–1 Nov 2016 30.8 55.4 0.4 12.5 0.9 24.6
Aximage 1–3 Oct 2016 32.8 54.0 0.4 12.1 0.7 21.2
Aximage 2–5 Sep 2016 31.2 57.3 0.4 10.3 0.8 26.1
Aximage 15–17 Jul 2016 31.6 56.8 0.8 9.5 1.3 25.2
Aximage 30 May–1 Jun 2016 35.2 55.2 7.4 1.4 0.8 20.0
Aximage 7–9 May 2016 36.1 54.5 4.9 3.5 1.0 18.4
Aximage 2–3 Apr 2016 38.8 50.8 8.4 0.5 1.5 12.0
Aximage 1–4 Mar 2016 41.6 47.8 8.4 0.5 1.7 6.2
Aximage 30–31 Jan 2016 41.9 48.1 7.6 0.7 1.7 6.2
Aximage 2–5 Jan 2016 38.9 48.3 9.5 1.1 2.2 9.4
Aximage 28 Nov–2 Dec 2015 44.3 43.2 10.5 0.6 1.4 1.1
Aximage 31 Oct–4 Nov 2015 45.5 39.6 13.7 0.2 1.0 5.9

Santana Lopes vs António Costa[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg António Costa 2014 (cropped) 2.jpg N Both/
O
NO Lead
Eurosondagem 8–10 Jan 2018 29.6 51.7 N/A N/A 23.6 22.1
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2018 19.0 71.0 8.5 0.1 1.4 52.0
Eurosondagem 4–6 Dec 2017 30.2 52.7 N/A N/A 17.1 22.5
Aximage 1–4 Dec 2017 19.7 71.7 6.6 0.0 2.0 52.0
Eurosondagem 6–8 Nov 2017 27.5 52.5 N/A N/A 20.0 25.0
Aximage 4–6 Nov 2017 21.9 68.4 7.0 0.0 2.7 46.5

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e f The People's Party (CDS–PP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Portugal Ahead (PàF) alongside the Social Democratic Party (PSD). CDS–PP elected 18 MPs, while PSD elected 89 MPs.

External links[edit]