Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.

National polls[edit]

Pre-campaign period[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[a]
Link CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC Others[b] Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 21, 2024 [1] 41 25 18 8 3 4 1 ±2.0 pp 2,415 online 16
Nanos Research May 17, 2024 [2] 42.8 25.0 17.1 7.7 2.5 4.5 0.5 ±2.9 pp 1,152 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 17.8
Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [3] 43 24 17 7 3 4 1 ±2.0 pp 2,000 online 19
Ipsos May 13, 2024 [4] 44 25 16 8 3 2 1 ±3.8 pp 1,000 online 19
Nanos Research May 10, 2024 [5] 43.2 22.8 15.9 10.3 2.5 4.3 1.0 ±2.9 pp 1,135 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 20.4
Relay Strategies May 9, 2024 [6] 45 23 16 7 3 4 2 ±3 pp 1,555 online 22
Nanos Research May 3, 2024 [7] 42.4 24.4 16.1 7.4 3.1 5.2 ±3 pp 1,082 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 18.0
Mainstreet Research April 30, 2024 [8] 43.2 25.4 15.0 7.0 2.6 3.8 2.9 ±2.6 pp 1,392 IVR 17.8
Abacus Data April 29, 2024 [9] 44 23 17 7 4 4 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 21
Leger April 28, 2024 [10] 44 23 17 8 2 5 1 ±2.44 pp 1,610 online 21
Nanos Research April 26, 2024 [11] 43.6 23.7 16.3 8.3 3.0 4.0 1.1 ±3 pp 1,105 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 19.9
Angus Reid April 23, 2024 [12] 43 23 19 8 1 4 2 ±2 pp 3,015 online 20
EKOS April 22, 2024 [13] 36.9 25.9 22.8 6.4 3.1 4.2 0.8 ±3.1 pp 1,033 IVR 11.0
Innovative Research April 21, 2024 [14] 41 26 17 8 5 3 1,408 online 15
Nanos Research April 19, 2024 [15] 41.8 23.3 19.1 9.3 3.0 2.7 0.8 ±3.1 pp 1,037 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 18.5
Ipsos April 18, 2024 [16] 43 24 19 8 4 2 1 ±3.8 pp 1,000 online 19
Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [17] 43 23 18 7 3 5 1 ±2 pp 2,300 online 20
Nanos Research April 12, 2024 [18] 40.0 23.7 20.6 9.1 2.2 3.6 0.8 ±3 pp 1,053 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 16.3
Research Co. April 10, 2024 [19] 38 26 20 10 1 3 1 ±3.1 pp 1,001 online 12
Abacus Data April 9, 2024 [20] 44 24 17 6 3 5 1 ±2.1 pp 2,000 online 20
Pallas Data April 8, 2024 [21] 41 26 18 7 3 4 ±2 pp 2,375 online 15
Nanos Research April 5, 2024 [22] 38.4 25.9 18.9 9.7 1.7 3.8 1.6 ±3 pp 1,089 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 12.5
Nanos Research March 29, 2024 [23] 37.5 25.7 18.7 9.9 2.1 4.7 1.3 ±3 pp 1,075 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 11.8
Leger March 25, 2024 [24] 42 26 17 7 2 4 1 ±2.45 pp 1,605 online 16
Nanos Research March 22, 2024 [25] 39.3 24.1 19.8 9.2 1.5 5.0 1.0 ±3 pp 1,092 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15.2
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [26] 41 23 19 7 4 4 0 ±1.7 pp 3,550 online 18
Ipsos March 18, 2024 [27] 41 23 20 7 3 4 1 ±3.8 pp 1,000 online 18
Nanos Research March 15, 2024 [28] 39.2 24.7 20.3 8.2 1.5 5.0 1.1 ±3 pp 1,092 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 14.5
Mainstreet Research March 9, 2024 [29] 45.6 24.9 15.4 6.1 2.1 3.6 2.4 ±2.7 pp 1,274 IVR 20.7
Nanos Research March 8, 2024 [30] 40.6 23.3 21.2 7.2 1.7 4.9 1.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 17.3
Abacus Data March 6, 2024 [31] 42 24 18 7 3 4 1 ±2.5 pp 1,500 online 18
Angus Reid March 4, 2024 [32] 40 23 21 9 2 4 1 ±2 pp 3,908 online 17
March 4, 2024 A federal by-election was held in Durham, with Jamil Jivani holding the seat for the Conservative Party.
Nanos Research March 1, 2024 [33] 42.8 23.3 21.4 6.2 1.3 4.2 0.7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 19.5
Leger February 25, 2024 [34] 41 25 18 7 3 5 1 ±2.49 pp 1,590 online 16
Nanos Research February 23, 2024 [35] 40.8 23.4 22.1 6.6 1.4 4.7 1.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 17.4
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [36] 41 24 19 8 3 5 1 ±2.1 pp 2,125 online 17
Nanos Research February 16, 2024 [37] 40.6 23.8 21.9 6.2 1.5 5.1 0.9 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 16.8
Nanos Research February 9, 2024 [38] 40.2 24.0 20.9 6.9 1.4 5.7 0.9 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 16.2
Abacus Data February 7, 2024 [39] 43 24 18 8 3 4 0 ±2.0 pp 2,398 online 19
Nanos Research February 2, 2024 [40] 40.0 24.7 20.6 7.4 1.3 5.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15.3
Leger January 28, 2024 [41] 40 25 20 8 2 5 1 ±2.47 pp 1,579 online 15
Mainstreet Research January 26, 2024 [42] 43 26 16 6 3 4 2 ±3.2 pp 947 IVR 17
Nanos Research January 26, 2024 [43] 39.0 27.1 20.4 6.8 1.4 4.7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 11.9
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [44] 40 25 20 8 3 5 0 ±2.1 pp 2,199 online 15
Ipsos January 22, 2024 [45] 36 27 20 8 3 3 2 ±3.8 pp 1,001 online 9
Nanos Research January 19, 2024 [46] 38.7 26.2 21.1 7.6 2.2 3.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 12.5
Angus Reid January 17, 2024 [47] 41 24 20 9 1 4 2 ±2 pp 1,620 online 17
Nanos Research January 12, 2024 [48] 39.4 27.6 19.6 7.4 2.0 3.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 11.8
Abacus Data January 9, 2024 [49] 41 24 18 7 5 4 0 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 17
Nanos Research January 5, 2024 [50] 38.3 26.4 20.5 7.4 2.1 4.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 11.9
Nanos Research December 29, 2023 [51] 40.3 26.6 18.1 7.3 1.9 4.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 13.7
Spark Advocacy December 27, 2023 [52] 40 26 19 8 5 3 ±2.0 pp 2,175 online 14
Nanos Research December 22, 2023 [53] 40.6 27.0 18.2 6.9 1.4 5.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 13.6
Leger December 17, 2023 [54] 38 28 18 7 2 5 2 ±2.43 pp 1,622 online 10
Pallas Data December 15, 2023 [55] 41 27 17 7 3 5 ±2.9 pp 1,177 online 14
Nanos Research December 15, 2023 [56] 40.8 24.9 20.4 5.7 1.6 5.6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15.9
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [57] 37 27 19 7 4 5 1 ±2.3 pp 1,919 online 10
Mainstreet Research December 9, 2023 [58] 42 24 17 7 3 5 2 ±3.3 pp 879 IVR 18
Nanos Research December 8, 2023 [59] 39.8 26.1 20.2 5.6 1.8 5.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 13.7
Innovative Research December 5, 2023 [60] 40 24 19 7 4 5 5,534 online 16
Angus Reid December 1, 2023 [61] 41 24 20 9 1 4 2 ±1.5 pp 3,755 online 17
Nanos Research December 1, 2023 [62] 40.4 23.4 21.2 6.3 1.9 5.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 17.0
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [63] 42 23 19 7 3 4 1 ±2.0 pp 2,417 online 19
Research Co. November 27, 2023 [64] 38 24 21 9 2 4 1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online 14
Pluriel Research November 26, 2023 [65] 39 25 19 7 6 4 ±2.6 pp 1,374 online 14
Leger November 26, 2023 [66] 40 26 20 7 2 3 1 ±2.51 pp 1,529 online 14
Nanos Research November 24, 2023 [67] 41.0 22.0 22.0 6.1 2.0 5.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 19.0
Abacus Data November 22, 2023 [68] 39 24 20 8 4 5 1 ±1.7 pp 3,450 online 15
Ipsos November 17, 2023 [69] 40 24 21 8 2 4 1 ±3.8 pp 1,000 online 16
Nanos Research November 17, 2023 [70] 39 24 22 6 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15
Angus Reid November 14, 2023 [71] 41 27 20 7 1 4 1 ±1.5 pp 2,512 online 14
Abacus Data November 12, 2023 [72] 41 25 19 6 4 3 ±2.3 pp 2,000 online 16
Nanos Research November 10, 2023 [73] 40.3 22.4 20.3 6.7 2.1 7.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 17.9
Mainstreet Research November 6, 2023 [74] 41.0 25.8 18.2 6.2 2.9 4.1 1.8 ±2.3 pp 1,892 IVR 15.2
Nanos Research November 3, 2023 [75] 40 25 20 6 2 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15
Abacus Data November 1, 2023 [76] 39 26 18 7 4 5 1 ±2.1 pp 2,200 online 13
Innovative Research October 31, 2023 [77] 38 24 20 7 4 5 5,974 online 14
Leger October 29, 2023 [78] 40 26 17 7 3 6 1 ±2.4 pp 1,632 online 14
Nanos Research October 27, 2023 [79] 37.7 25.4 19.9 5.5 3.4 7.9 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 12.3
Pallas Data October 22, 2023 [80] 43 27 16 7 3 3 ±2.5 pp 1,484 IVR 16
Nanos Research October 20, 2023 [81] 39.5 23.6 19.3 5.0 4.5 7.5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15.9
Angus Reid October 13, 2023 [82] 39 28 21 7 1 3 1 ±2 pp 1,878 online 11
Nanos Research October 13, 2023 [83] 40 25 19 5 3 7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 15
Mainstreet Research October 12, 2023 [84] 41 27 17 6 3 3 2 ±2.8 pp 1,223 IVR 14
Abacus Data October 10, 2023 [85] 40 26 19 7 5 ±2.2 pp 1,915 online 14
Nanos Research October 6, 2023 [86] 38 26 20 6 3 7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 12
Abacus Data October 5, 2023 [87] 39 26 18 7 5 4 ±2.2 pp 1,985 online 13
Nanos Research September 29, 2023 [88] 37.9 26.5 21.2 6.2 2.0 5.7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 11.4
Leger September 24, 2023 [89] 39 27 18 7 2 4 2 ±2.4 pp 1,652 online 12
EKOS September 24, 2023 [90] 42.1 22.9 17.9 6.4 2.9 6.9 0.9 ±3.1 pp 1,025 IVR 19.2
Nanos Research September 22, 2023 [91] 35.6 28.6 21.4 7.3 1.7 5.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7.0
Ipsos September 18, 2023 [92] 39 30 17 8 2 3 2 ±2.9 pp 1,500 online 9
Nanos Research September 15, 2023 [93] 34.9 28.9 22.2 7.1 1.8 4.7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6.0
Abacus Data September 13, 2023 [94] 41 26 18 8 3 3 1 ±2.1 pp 2,125 online 15
Pluriel Research September 8, 2023 [95] 37.9 29.1 19.6 6.4 4.0 3.0 ±3 pp 1,001 online 8.8
Nanos Research September 8, 2023 [96] 34.0 29.0 21.8 7.1 2.6 5.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5.0
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [97] 39 27 19 8 2 4 0 ±1.5 pp 3,400 online 12
Research Co. September 4, 2023 [98] 37 31 17 8 1 3 1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online 6
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [99] 40 26 19 6 3 4 1 ±1.7 pp 3,595 online 14
Nanos Research September 1, 2023 [100] 32 32 21 7 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0
Leger August 27, 2023 [101] 38 29 18 8 2 4 1 ±2.5 pp 1,597 online 9
Nanos Research August 25, 2023 [102] 33 30 22 7 2 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3
Mainstreet Research August 23, 2023 [103] 41 28 15 7 3 4 3 ±2.7 pp 1,280 IVR 13
Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [104] 38 26 19 7 4 4 ±2.0 pp 2,189 online 12
Nanos Research August 18, 2023 [105] 34.1 29.5 19.8 7.2 2.4 6.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 4.6
Pallas Data August 17, 2023 [106] 39.1 29.6 16.6 6.7 2.0 4.7 1.2 ±3.1 pp 1,021 IVR 9.5
Angus Reid August 11, 2023 [107] 38 31 18 7 1 5 0 ±2 pp 1,606 online 7
Nanos Research August 11, 2023 [108] 35 29 19 7 2 7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Abacus Data August 7, 2023 [109] 37 28 19 8 3 4 1 ±2.0 pp 1,650 online 9
Nanos Research August 4, 2023 [110] 37 27 20 7 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 10
Nanos Research July 28, 2023 [111] 36 29 17 7 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [112] 38 28 18 7 4 5 1 ±2.0 pp 2,486 online 10
July 24, 2023 A federal by-election was held in Calgary Heritage, with Shuvaloy Majumdar holding the seat for the Conservative Party.
Nanos Research July 21, 2023 [113] 35.4 28.6 19.6 7.1 2.3 5.9 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6.8
Nanos Research July 14, 2023 [114] 35 29 19 7 2 7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Leger July 10, 2023 [115] 37 28 17 7 3 5 2 ±2.5 pp 1,512 online 9
Mainstreet Research July 8, 2023 [116] 37 30 17 6 3 5 2 ±2.8 pp 1,200 IVR 7
Nanos Research July 7, 2023 [117] 37 30 19 7 2 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7
Nanos Research June 30, 2023 [118] 35.8 29.6 18.9 6.4 2.4 6.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6.2
Abacus Data June 27, 2023 [119] 34 29 20 7 5 5 1 ±2.0 pp 1,500 online 5
Pollara June 23, 2023 [120] 32 30 21 8 3 5 1 ±1.2 pp 7,001 online 2
Nanos Research June 23, 2023 [121] 35 29 20 7 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Ipsos June 20, 2023 [122] 37 32 16 8 2 3 1 ±3.5 pp 1,000 online 5
June 19, 2023 A federal by-election was held in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, with Anna Gainey holding the seat for the Liberal Party.
June 19, 2023 A federal by-election was held in Oxford, with Arpan Khanna holding the seat for the Conservative Party.
June 19, 2023 A federal by-election was held in Portage—Lisgar, with Branden Leslie holding the seat for the Conservative Party.
June 19, 2023 A federal by-election was held in Winnipeg South Centre, with Ben Carr holding the seat for the Liberal Party.
Nanos Research June 16, 2023 [123] 35 30 21 7 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [124] 35 28 21 7 4 4 1 ±2.0 pp 2,000 online 7
Nanos Research June 9, 2023 [125] 32 30 23 6 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 2
Mainstreet Research June 8, 2023 [126] 35 29 21 5 2 5 3 ±3 pp 1,045 IVR 6
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [127] 37 29 20 8 2 4 0 ±1 pp 3,885 online 8
Nanos Research June 2, 2023 [118] 32.4 29.3 23.8 6.8 2.7 3.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3.1
Leger May 29, 2023 [128] 31 33 19 8 2 6 1 ±2.51 pp 1,531 online 2
Nanos Research May 26, 2023 [129] 33 28 24 7 3 4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Nanos Research May 19, 2023 [130] 34 27 24 7 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7
Abacus Data May 12, 2023 [131] 33 30 18 7 5 5 1 ±2.0 pp 2,500 online 3
Nanos Research May 12, 2023 [132] 36 27 22 7 4 4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 9
Leger May 8, 2023 [133] 33 32 20 7 2 5 2 ±2.51 pp 1,523 online 1
Mainstreet Research May 6, 2023 [134] 36 30 17 6 3 4 2 ±2.7 pp 1,272 IVR 6
Nanos Research May 5, 2023 [135] 35.2 27.7 21.7 7.1 3.4 4.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7.5
Abacus Data May 3, 2023 [136] 33 31 19 7 5 4 1 ±2.4 pp 1,750 online 2
Nanos Research April 28, 2023 [137] 35 30 20 6 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Leger April 23, 2023 [138] 36 30 19 7 2 4 1 1,515 online 6
Nanos Research April 21, 2023 [139] 34 31 21 6 3 4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3
Nanos Research April 14, 2023 [140] 34 31 21 6 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3
Leger April 10, 2023 [141] 34 30 21 8 3 3 1 ±2.52 pp 1,517 online 4
Nanos Research April 7, 2023 [142] 35.8 30.6 18.1 5.5 3.4 5.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5.2
Nanos Research March 31, 2023 [143] 36 28 20 6 4 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 8
Mainstreet Research March 30, 2023 [144] 35.9 28.9 18.1 6.5 1.8 6.8 2.1 ±2.8 pp 1,267 IVR 7.0
Nanos Research March 24, 2023 [145] 34.8 28.9 19.0 6.3 4.4 5.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5.9
Abacus Data March 21, 2023 [146] 33 31 18 8 5 4 1 ±2.3 pp 1,963 online 2
Nanos Research March 17, 2023 [147] 34 27 20 9 5 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7
Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [148] 35 29 20 8 2 4 1 ±1 pp 4,899 online 6
EKOS March 13, 2023 [149] 31.4 28.2 25.0 6.0 3.6 4.8 1.1 ±1.6 pp 3,115 telephone/online 3.2
Leger March 12, 2023 [150] 32 33 19 9 2 4 1 ±2.49 pp 1,544 online 1
Mainstreet Research March 10, 2023 [151] 36.9 30.8 15.2 6.2 3.3 4.8 2.7 ±2.8 pp 1,255 IVR 6.1
Abacus Data March 10, 2023 [152] 34 29 19 7 6 3 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 5
Nanos Research March 10, 2023 [153] 32.8 28.4 20.6 8.9 3.5 5.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 4.4
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [154] 36 29 18 8 4 3 2 ±2.0 pp 2,600 online 7
Nanos Research March 3, 2023 [155] 34 30 20 9 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (3/4) telephone (rolling) 4
Research Co. February 27, 2023 [156] 33 34 18 8 1 3 1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online 1
Abacus Data February 18, 2023 [157] 37 29 18 7 4 4 1 ±1.6 pp 4,000 online 8
Ipsos February 17, 2023 [158] 33 33 18 7 3 4 1 ±3.1 pp 1,350 online 0
Leger February 12, 2023 [159] 35 32 18 7 2 4 1 ±2.50 pp 1,539 online 3
Nanos Research February 10, 2023 [160] 32.9 33.1 20.5 6.4 2.8 4.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.2
Pollara February 6, 2023 [161] 32 32 20 8 3 4 1 ±1.8 pp 3,850 online 0
Abacus Data January 30, 2023 [162] 37 29 18 7 4 4 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 8
Mainstreet Research January 27, 2023 [163] 36.9 33.1 13.6 6.4 2.4 4.8 2.8 ±2.8 pp 1,261 IVR 3.8
Nanos Research January 27, 2023 [164] 34 31 19 8 2 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3
Leger January 22, 2023 [165] 34 34 19 7 1 3 1 ±2.49 pp 1,554 online 0
Nanos Research January 20, 2023 [166] 35 30 18 9 2 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Abacus Data January 16, 2023 [167] 35 31 18 7 5 4 1 ±2.2 pp 2,099 online 4
Nanos Research January 13, 2023 [168] 35.6 28.3 20.7 7.4 2.1 5.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 7.3
Pollara January 12, 2023 [161] 32 33 21 8 2 4 3,020 online 1
Nanos Research January 6, 2023 [169] 34 29 22 6 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Nanos Research December 30, 2022 [170] 34 29 22 6 3 6 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 5
Nanos Research December 23, 2022 [171] 35 29 23 6 2 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Pollara December 20, 2022 [161] 33 30 21 8 3 5 4,020 online 3
Nanos Research December 16, 2022 [172] 35 29 21 6 3 5 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Mainstreet Research December 15, 2022 [173] 36.0 31.3 18.6 5.8 2.9 3.9 1.5 ±2.6 pp 1,416 IVR 4.7
December 12, 2022 A federal by-election was held in Mississauga—Lakeshore, with Charles Sousa holding the seat for the Liberal Party.
Leger December 11, 2022 [174] 33 30 21 7 4 4 2 ±2.50 pp 1,526 online 3
Abacus Data December 10, 2022 [175] 36 30 19 6 4 4 1 2,500 online 6
Nanos Research December 9, 2022 [176] 33.6 30.3 20.9 5.5 2.6 5.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 3.3
Mainstreet Research December 8, 2022 [177] 37.9 33.6 16.4 5.1 2.4 3.6 1.0 ±2.8 pp 1,267 IVR 4.3
Nanos Research December 2, 2022 [178] 33 31 22 6 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 2
Nanos Research November 25, 2022 [179] 30.3 31.0 22.5 7.1 3.4 4.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.7
EKOS November 23, 2022 [180] 33.6 31.3 18.1 5.1 3.4 6.6 1.9 ±3.1 pp 1,034 IVR 2.3
November 19, 2022 Elizabeth May returns as leader of the Green Party
Innovative Research November 14, 2022 [181] 33 32 18 7 2 6 1 2,236 online 1
Leger November 13, 2022 [182] 34 32 19 7 2 4 2 ±2.50 pp 1,537 online 2
Nanos Research November 11, 2022 [176] 31.3 32.9 20.0 8.1 1.7 5.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 1.6
Mainstreet Research November 7, 2022 [183] 37.6 30.3 19.3 3.8 4.1 3.5 1.4 ±2.7 pp 1,276 IVR 7.3
Pollara November 3, 2022 [161] 33 31 20 9 3 3 3,418 online 2
Nanos Research October 28, 2022 [179] 34.4 32.1 16.9 7.9 3.2 4.3 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 2.3
Research Co. October 26, 2022 [184] 35 31 19 8 2 4 1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online 4
Abacus Data October 26, 2022 [185] 34 31 18 6 4 5 1 ±2.1 pp 1,500 online 3
Nanos Research October 21, 2022 [186] 36 30 17 8 4 4 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 6
Nanos Research October 14, 2022 [187] 35 34 18 6 3 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 1
Leger October 10, 2022 [188] 33 31 21 8 2 3 1 ±2.50 pp 1,534 online 2
Nanos Research October 7, 2022 [189] 33 32 21 6 2 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 1
Nanos Research September 30, 2022 [190] 33 29 23 6 2 5 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 4
Mainstreet Research September 22, 2022 [191] 40.8 32.7 12.4 5.2 3.4 2.6 2.7 ±3.0 pp 1,088 IVR 8.1
Angus Reid September 22, 2022 [192] 37 30 20 7 1 3 1 ±2 pp 5,014 online 7
Ipsos September 21, 2022 [193] 35 30 20 7 3 3 2 ±3.5 pp 1,000 online 5
Leger September 18, 2022 [194] 34 28 23 8 3 3 1 ±2.51 pp 1,522 online 6
EKOS September 16, 2022 [195] 33.7 31.7 20.1 5.9 3.1 5.0 0.5 ±3.1 pp 1,005 IVR 2.0
Nanos Research September 16, 2022 [196] 30.7 28.4 26.0 6.0 3.4 4.8 ±3.00 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 2.3
Abacus Data September 14, 2022 [197] 35 30 17 9 4 4 1 ±2.2 pp 1,990 online 5
September 10, 2022 Pierre Poilievre is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Abacus Data August 30, 2022 [198] 33 32 19 7 5 3 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 1
Nanos Research August 19, 2022 [196] 32.5 33.3 20.1 5.5 2.1 5.6 ±3.00 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.8
Leger August 7, 2022 [199] 28 33 21 8 5 4 2 ±2.52 pp 1,509 online 5
Nanos Research August 5, 2022 [200] 32.6 29.0 22.7 6.3 1.7 6.8 ±3.0 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 3.6
Abacus Data July 27, 2022 [201] 35 30 19 7 4 4 1 ±2.0 pp 2,400 online 5
Mainstreet Research July 18, 2022 [202] 38.3 27.6 18.1 5.9 5.2 2.6 2.3 ±2.3 pp 1,749 IVR 10.7
Abacus Data July 17, 2022 [203] 33 31 19 8 4 4 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 2
Leger July 10, 2022 [204] 28 32 21 7 5 4 3 ±2.49 pp 1,538 online 4
Nanos Research July 8, 2022 [200] 34.1 30.6 20.8 5.6 2.8 5.4 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (3/4) telephone (rolling) 3.5
Abacus Data June 23, 2022 [205] 34 30 18 8 5 4 1 ±1.8 pp 3,026 online 4
Ipsos June 20, 2022 [206] 33 32 21 8 2 2 1 ±2.5 pp 2,002 online 1
Nanos Research June 17, 2022 [207] 35.5 30.5 19.2 6.1 2.9 5.1 ±2.9 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 5.0
Mainstreet Research June 16, 2022 [208] 25.8 34.0 22.8 7.8 3.1 4.5 2.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 online 8.2
Leger June 12, 2022 [209] 32 30 21 6 4 4 2 ±2.5 pp 1,528 online 2
Abacus Data May 24, 2022 [210] 31 31 19 8 5 5 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 0
Nanos Research May 20, 2022 [207] 32.5 34.4 19.6 6.1 3.3 4.1 ±2.9 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 1.9
EKOS May 17, 2022 [211] 35.4 29.2 19.9 4.3 4.2 4.5 3 ±2.8 pp 1,244 IVR 6.2
EKOS May 9, 2022 [212] 31.4 31.8 20.3 4.8 4.8 5.2 2 ±2.1 pp 2,140 IVR 0.4
Abacus Data May 6, 2022 [213] 33 31 19 8 5 3 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 2
Mainstreet Research April 29, 2022 [214] 38.4 32.2 16.9 6.7 2.8 3.1 ±2.7 pp 1,327 IVR 6.2
Nanos Research April 22, 2022 [215] 35.6 30.0 19.6 5.4 3.4 5.5 ±2.9 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 5.6
Leger April 10, 2022 [216] 29 31 21 7 6 4 2 ±2.5 pp 1,538 online 2
Abacus Data April 9, 2022 [217] 31 33 18 8 5 4 1 ±2.1 pp 2,000 online 2
Nanos Research April 8, 2022 [218] 33 33 18 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0
Nanos Research April 1, 2022 [218] 31 33 21 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 2
Abacus Data March 25, 2022 [219] 33 31 17 7 6 4 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 2
Nanos Research March 25, 2022 [215] 31.3 32.2 21.6 5.9 3.6 4.8 ±2.9 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.9
March 22, 2022 The Liberals and NDP enter into a confidence-and-supply agreement.
Nanos Research March 11, 2022 [220] 29.3 32.1 22.2 6.4 5.0 4.9 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 2.8
Leger March 6, 2022 [221] 28 33 22 8 5 3 1 ±2.5 pp 1,591 online 5
Nanos Research February 25, 2022 [222] 32.2 30.3 17.7 5.4 6.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 1.9
Abacus Data February 22, 2022 [223] 31 31 20 8 6 3 1 ±1.4 pp 5,200 online 0
Ipsos February 21, 2022 [224] 32 32 23 6 4 3 1 ±3.5 pp 1,001 online 0
Mainstreet Research February 17, 2022 [225] 38.7 30.6 14.6 6.3 6.2 1.9 1.7 ±2.7 pp 1,323 IVR 8.1
Nanos Research February 11, 2022 [226] 31.1 30.6 16.9 7.1 7.1 6.4 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/2) telephone (rolling) 0.5
Abacus Data February 8, 2022 [227] 30 33 19 8 6 3 1 ±2.6 pp 1,500 online 3
Leger February 6, 2022 [228] 29 33 21 8 4 4 0 ±2.49 pp 1,546 online 4
February 2, 2022 Erin O'Toole is removed as leader of the Conservative Party. Candice Bergen is named interim leader.
Nanos Research January 28, 2022 [229] 30.4 29.9 20.7 6.7 5.8 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.5
Mainstreet Research January 23, 2022 [230] 29.3 29.4 16.7 5.8 12.7 3.2 2.8 ±2.3 pp 1,813 IVR 0.1
Leger January 23, 2022 [231] 31 34 18 7 6 3 2 ±2.51 pp 1,525 online 3
Nanos Research January 21, 2022 [232] 29.4 28.4 22.3 5.6 7.0 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 1.0
EKOS January 17, 2022 [233] 29.7 30.3 19.5 5.9 9.1 4.5 1 ±1.9 pp 2,612 IVR 0.6
Nanos Research January 14, 2022 [234] 28.5 28.2 24.3 6.1 5.3 6.3 ±3.0 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.3
Angus Reid January 12, 2022 [235] 29 34 20 5 6 3 2 ±2.0 pp 5,002 online 5
Abacus Data January 12, 2022 [236] 30 32 19 8 7 3 1 ±2.089 pp 2,200 online 2
Nanos Research January 7, 2022 [237] 29.0 30.6 21.4 6.2 5.7 6.1 ±3.0 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 1.6
Discover by Navigator January 5, 2022 [238] 29 32 22 6 7 4 2,513 online 3
EKOS December 21, 2021 [239] 25 32 23 4 10 4 2 ±3.1 pp 1,015 IVR 7
Nanos Research December 10, 2021 [237] 30.4 33.3 19.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 ±3.0 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 2.9
Leger December 5, 2021 [240] 29 36 19 7 5 3 1 ±2.49 pp 1,547 online 7
Mainstreet Research November 30, 2021 [241] 30.3 33.5 15.7 5.5 10.0 3.2 1.9 ±2.36 pp 1,719 IVR 3.2
Abacus Data November 30, 2021 [242] 30 32 20 8 6 3 1 ±2.2 pp 2,025 online 2
Angus Reid November 29, 2021 [243] 29 35 20 7 5 2 1 ±2 pp 2,005 online 6
November 27, 2021 Amita Kuttner is named interim leader of the Green Party
EKOS November 21, 2021 [244] 26.6 30.4 19.1 5.9 11.4 5.2 1 ±3.1 pp 1,006 IVR 3.8
Leger November 7, 2021 [245] 26 35 22 8 5 3 2 ±2.48 pp 1,565 online 9
Nanos Research October 29, 2021 [246] 30.1 30.8 21.6 7.4 5.8 3.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (1/4) telephone (rolling) 0.7
Mainstreet Research October 24, 2021 [247] 33.3 33.8 15.4 5.5 3.0 8.9 ±2.4 pp 1,711 IVR 0.5
Nanos Research October 22, 2021 [248] 30.8 29.9 23.1 7.3 5.3 2.7 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 0.9
Abacus Data October 20, 2021 [249] 30 33 19 7 6 3 1 ±1.9 pp 2,220 online 3
September 27, 2021 Annamie Paul announces her intention to resign as the leader of the Green Party
2021 election September 20, 2021 HTML 33.7 32.6 17.8 7.6 4.9 2.3 1.1 17,042,591 1.1
Polling firm Last date
of polling[a]
Link Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC

Voting intention with LPC-NDP merger/alliance[edit]

Under Justin Trudeau leadership[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC-NDP CPC BQ GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Research Co October 8, 2023 [250] 36 42 8 8 2 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 6
Leger April 23, 2023 [251] 41 39 8 6 3 ± 3.1 pp 1,515 online 2

Under Jagmeet Singh leadership[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC-NDP CPC BQ GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Research Co October 8, 2023 [250] 36 43 9 7 2 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 7

Regional polls[edit]

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level. Note that this section displays results from stand-alone polls, not subsets of national polls.

British Columbia[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 9, 2024 [252] 18 44 26 8 3 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 18
Mainstreet Research April 24, 2024 [253] 17.8 55.8 15.8 6.9 3.7 ± 3.2 pp 962 Smart IVR 38
Mainstreet Research March 19, 2024 [254] 22.8 49.6 19.4 5.8 2.4 ± 3 pp 1,063 Smart IVR 26.8
Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [255] 21 40 29 9 2 ± 3 pp 809 online 11

Metro Vancouver[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 9, 2024 [256] 21 46 23 8 1 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 23

Vancouver Island[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 9, 2024 [257] 14 37 39 7 2 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 2

Interior/Northern BC[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 9, 2024 [258] 14 46 26 9 5 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 20

Alberta[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Leger March 24, 2024 [259] 14 60 20 3 2 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,002 Online 40
Mainstreet Research May 2, 2023 [260] 18 55 13 1 3 1 ± 2.5 pp 1,524 Smart IVR 37
Yorkville Strategies March 9, 2022 [261] 18 48 20 4 7 3 ± 4 pp 600 Phone 28

Manitoba[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Probe Research March 18, 2024 [262] 23 47 26 2 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 IVR + online 21

City of Winnipeg[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Probe Research March 18, 2024 [262] 28 38 31 2 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 IVR + online 7

Rural/Northern Manitoba[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Probe Research March 18, 2024 [262] 16 61 19 2 2 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 IVR + online 42

Ontario[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [263] 29 45 17 4 5 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 16

City of Toronto[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Angus Reid April 23, 2024 [264] 32 38 23 4 1 2 ± 2 pp 158 online 6
Abacus Data March 6, 2024 [265] 33 41 18 958 online 8
Liason Strategies January 4, 2024 [266] 38 32 22 5 3 ± 3.39 pp 831 IVR 6
Liason Strategies October 4, 2023 [267] 40 29 24 4 3 ± 3.43 pp 817 IVR 11
Abacus Data February 7, 2023 [268] 44 27 18 6 5 1 ± 3.1 pp 1,000 online 17

Peel region[edit]

City of Mississauga[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2024 [269] 39.2 42.8 14.0 2.3 1.6 0.1 ± 2.8 pp 1183 IVR 3.6
Liason Strategies January 11, 2024 [270] 41 36 15 3 5 ± 3.06 pp 983 IVR 5
City of Brampton[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2024 [269] 37.4 41.3 15.2 4.0 1.5 0.7 ± 2.8 pp 1183 IVR 3.9
Town of Caledon[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2024 [269] 17.9 49.5 25.4 4.1 3.1 0 ± 2.8 pp 1183 IVR 24.1

Quebec[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Leger April 21, 2024 [271] 26 24 10 35 2 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1,026 Online 9
Pallas Data April 8, 2024 [272] 25.3 26.2 9.9 28.6 0.7 2.2 0.6 ± 2 pp 700 IVR 2.4
Leger March 18, 2024 [273] 27 23 14 30 3 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1,033 Online 3
Leger February 6, 2024 [274] 28 24 14 29 3 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1032 Online 1
Leger December 4, 2023 [275] 28 25 10 31 2 2 2 ± 3.04 pp 846 Online 3
Pallas Data September 27, 2023 [276] 34 25 7 28 3 2 1 ± 2.96 pp 1,095 IVR 6
Leger September 25, 2023 [277] 29 23 13 29 2 1 ± 3.0 pp 1,046 Online 0
Leger February 26, 2023 [278] 33 15 13 31 4 2 ± 3.0 pp 1,044 Online 2
Leger November 6, 2022 [279] 34 18 12 30 2 2 ± 3.1 pp 1,028 Online 4

Newfoundland and Labrador[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Lead
Abacus Data September 25, 2023 [280] 33 42 23 1 1 ± 4.5 pp 500 Online 9

Leadership polls[edit]

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best prime minister:

November 2022 – present[edit]

Polling firm Last date of polling Link Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error
[c]
Lead
Nanos Research May 17, 2024 [2] 21.8 38.2 12.9 5.9 4.8 2.2 14.2 ±2.9 pp 16.4
Nanos Research May 10, 2024 [5] 21.2 38.0 11.4 5.6 4.7 2.2 16.8 ±2.9 pp 16.8
Nanos Research May 3, 2024 [7] 19.8 36.5 11.6 4.2 5.2 2.1 20.6 ±3 pp 16.7
Abacus Data April 29, 2024 [9] 21 41 17 21 ±2.6 pp 20
Leger April 28, 2024 [10] 16 32 11 4 2 14 ±2.44 pp 16
Nanos Research April 26, 2024 [11] 19.0 37.1 12.5 4.7 3.9 2.4 20.4 ±3 pp 18.1
Angus Reid April 23, 2024 [281] 16 35 13 10 ±2 pp 19
Nanos Research April 19, 2024 [15] 18.4 34.9 14.1 4.9 3.3 2.0 22.4 ±3.1 pp 16.5
Ipsos April 18, 2024 [282] 23 48 22 ±3.8 pp 25
Nanos Research April 12, 2024 [18] 19.8 33.9 16.8 5.6 3.7 1.4 18.8 ±3 pp 14.1
Research Co. April 10, 2024 [19] 26 32 17 6 3 1 16 ±3.1 pp 6
Nanos Research April 5, 2024 [22] 21.1 32.0 17.0 5.9 4.9 2.7 16.5 ±3 pp 10.9
Nanos Research March 29, 2024 [23] 21.5 33.4 14.8 6.0 5.3 2.0 17.1 ±3 pp 11.9
Leger March 25, 2024 [24] 17 29 17 3 1 15 ±2.45 pp 12
Nanos Research March 22, 2024 [25] 19.7 33.7 16.9 5.2 4.6 1.7 18.2 ±3 pp 14.0
Nanos Research March 15, 2024 [28] 19.9 33.5 16.2 4.6 4.6 1.8 19.4 ±3 pp 13.6
Nanos Research March 8, 2024 [30] 18.8 34.9 17.2 4.5 3.8 2.1 18.6 ±3.1 pp 16.1
Angus Reid March 4, 2024 [32] 17 31 15 10 ±2 pp 14
Nanos Research March 1, 2024 [33] 19.2 36.9 17.0 3.8 2.7 1.7 18.7 ±3.1 pp 17.7
Leger February 25, 2024 [34] 17 27 16 4 2 14 ±2.49 pp 10
Nanos Research February 23, 2024 [35] 18.6 36.3 16.9 3.9 3.7 1.6 19.0 ±3.1 pp 17.7
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [36] 45 55 ±2.1 pp 10
Nanos Research February 16, 2024 [37] 20.3 35.8 15.0 3.9 3.8 1.9 19.3 ±3.1 pp 15.5
Nanos Research February 9, 2024 [38] 20.8 36.2 14.5 4.0 4.0 1.9 18.6 ±3.1 pp 15.4
Nanos Research February 2, 2024 [40] 20.8 35.1 13.8 4.4 4.3 2.2 19.3 ±3.1 pp 14.3
Leger January 26, 2024 [41] 18 27 16 3 2 16 ±2.47 pp 9
Nanos Research January 26, 2024 [43] 22.8 33.4 14.3 4.1 3.3 2.3 19.8 ±3.1 pp 10.6
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [44] 46 54 ±2.1 pp 8
Ipsos January 22, 2024 [283] 30 40 24 6 ±3.8 pp 10
Nanos Research January 19, 2024 [46] 22.4 32.3 15.7 4.6 3.4 1.8 19.8 ±3.1 pp 9.9
Nanos Research January 12, 2024 [48] 22.0 31.4 15.6 4.1 4.1 1.6 21.3 ±3.1 pp 9.4
Nanos Research January 5, 2024 [50] 21.2 31.4 16.3 3.8 4.2 1.6 21.6 ±3.1 pp 10.2
Nanos Research December 29, 2023 [51] 21.4 33.0 15.2 3.3 4.5 1.4 21.2 ±3.1 pp 11.6
Nanos Research December 22, 2023 [53] 20.6 34.3 15.4 3.2 4.0 1.8 20.9 ±3.1 pp 13.7
Leger December 17, 2023 [54] 20 25 16 3 1 15 ±2.43 pp 5
Nanos Research December 15, 2023 [56] 20.8 33.4 17.4 3.2 4.2 1.9 19.2 ±3.1 pp 12.6
Nanos Research December 8, 2023 [59] 20.9 32.8 16.2 3.5 4.3 1.8 20.5 ±3.1 pp 11.9
Innovative Research December 5, 2023 [60] 23 41 21 6 5 4 18
Angus Reid December 1, 2023 [284] 16 34 13 10 ±1.5 pp 18
Nanos Research December 1, 2023 [62] 19.1 33.4 16.8 3.9 4.8 1.9 20.1 ±3.1 pp 14.3
Research Co. November 27, 2023 [64] 23 32 18 4 4 2 18 ±3.1 pp 9
Leger November 26, 2023 [66] 19 25 17 3 2 16 ±2.51 pp 6
Nanos Research November 24, 2023 [67] 19.0 34.1 16.2 3.6 5.7 1.7 19.7 ±3.1 pp 15.1
Nanos Research November 17, 2023 [285] 19.2 33.1 15.5 4.0 5.0 2.0 21.2 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Leger November 12, 2023 [286] 17 27 16 2 2 18 ±2.44 pp 10
Nanos Research November 10, 2023 [287] 21.2 33.7 16.1 3.8 5.4 1.7 18.0 ±3.1 pp 12.6
Nanos Research November 3, 2023 [288] 22.7 34.1 16.0 3.7 4.5 1.8 17.2 ±3.1 pp 11.4
Innovative Research October 31, 2023 [77] 24 39 23 5 4 5 15
Leger October 29, 2023 [78] 18 29 15 4 2 17 ±2.4 pp 11
Nanos Research October 27, 2023 [79] 23.3 31.5 17.8 3.5 4.6 2.1 17.2 ±3.1 pp 8.2
Nanos Research October 20, 2023 [289] 23.0 32.6 16.8 2.9 5.1 2.2 17.4 ±3.1 pp 9.6
Angus Reid October 13, 2023 [82] 16 30 15 11 ±2 pp 14
Nanos Research October 13, 2023 [290] 23.3 32.9 15.2 3.2 4.7 2.5 18.3 ±3.1 pp 9.6
Nanos Research October 6, 2023 [291] 23.5 32.1 15.0 3.4 4.7 2.3 19.0 ±3.1 pp 8.6
Nanos Research September 29, 2023 [88] 23.0 32.1 15.6 3.7 4.2 2.0 19.4 ±3.1 pp 9.1
Leger September 24, 2023 [89] 20 26 14 2 2 17 ±2.4 pp 6
Nanos Research September 22, 2023 [91] 23.9 31.3 16.5 3.7 3.9 2.2 18.6 ±3.1 pp 7.4
Ipsos September 18, 2023 [292] 31 40 22 6 ±2.9 pp 9
Nanos Research September 15, 2023 [93] 24.6 30.7 16.7 3.2 4.1 2.1 18.7 ±3.1 pp 6.1
Nanos Research September 8, 2023 [96] 25.4 28.9 16.9 3.2 4.3 2.9 18.4 ±3.1 pp 3.5
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [97] 17 32 15 11 ±1.5 pp 15
Research Co. September 4, 2023 [98] 28 28 17 4 3 1 20 ±3.1 pp 0
Nanos Research September 1, 2023 [293] 27.7 27.2 15.9 3.5 4.6 2.6 18.6 ±3.1 pp 0.5
Nanos Research August 25, 2023 [294] 27.5 27.5 16.1 3.9 5.1 2.4 17.6 ±3.1 pp 0
Nanos Research August 18, 2023 [105] 28.2 27.5 16.9 4.3 4.5 2.1 15.9 ±3.1 pp 0.7
Nanos Research August 11, 2023 [295] 28.0 27.8 16.3 4.1 5.0 1.5 17.3 ±3.1 pp 0.2
Nanos Research August 4, 2023 [296] 27.9 28.6 16.0 4.2 4.3 1.8 17.3 ±3.1 pp 0.7
Nanos Research July 28, 2023 [297] 25.9 28.4 15.3 4.4 4.0 2.5 19.5 ±3.1 pp 2.5
Nanos Research July 21, 2023 [298] 25.8 26.7 16.5 4.3 4.1 3.2 19.5 ±3.1 pp 0.9
Nanos Research July 14, 2023 [299] 26.3 28.2 16.9 3.6 3.7 2.9 18.3 ±3.1 pp 1.9
Nanos Research July 7, 2023 [300] 25.8 29.1 17.5 3.4 3.5 2.7 18.0 ±3.1 pp 3.3
Nanos Research June 30, 2023 [301] 27.2 28.4 17.8 3.4 3.4 2.4 17.3 ±3.1 pp 1.2
Nanos Research June 23, 2023 [302] 27.3 28.0 16.6 3.7 3.4 2.8 18.0 ±3.1 pp 0.7
Nanos Research June 16, 2023 [303] 27.1 27.5 17.9 3.5 3.0 2.4 18.5 ±3.1 pp 0.4
Nanos Research June 9, 2023 [304] 27.6 25.8 18.5 3.8 3.1 2.6 18.7 ±3.1 pp 1.8
Nanos Research June 2, 2023 [305] 26.8 26.6 19.1 3.7 2.5 2.4 18.9 ±3.1 pp 0.2
Nanos Research May 26, 2023 [306] 25.9 26.6 20.1 3.9 2.5 2.2 19.0 ±3.1 pp 0.7
Nanos Research May 19, 2023 [307] 25.9 27.3 19.1 4.2 2.9 2.2 18.4 ±3.1 pp 1.4
Nanos Research May 12, 2023 [308] 24.3 28.6 18.7 4.0 3.4 2.6 18.3 ±3.1 pp 4.3
Leger May 8, 2023 [309] 24 19 16 3 2 ±2.51 pp 5
Nanos Research May 5, 2023 [135] 23.9 28.3 18.8 4.5 3.4 2.8 18.3 ±3.1 pp 4.4
Nanos Research April 28, 2023 [310] 25.6 28.1 18.1 4.4 3.3 2.8 18.1 ±3.1 pp 2.5
Nanos Research April 21, 2023 [311] 25.3 27.5 18.4 3.8 3.4 2.5 19.1 ±3.1 pp 2.2
Nanos Research April 14, 2023 [312] 25.9 26.9 18.1 3.7 3.3 2.2 19.8 ±3.1 pp 1.0
Leger April 11, 2023 [313] 23 21 17 3 3 ±2.52 pp 2
Nanos Research April 7, 2023 [314] 26.2 28.4 16.0 4.0 3.5 2.8 18.9 ±3.1 pp 2.2
Nanos Research March 31, 2023 [315] 25.3 29.4 15.5 4.2 3.7 3.4 18.6 ±3.1 pp 4.1
Nanos Research March 24, 2023 [316] 25.9 28.7 16.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 17.2 ±3.1 pp 2.8
Nanos Research March 17, 2023 [317] 25.6 29.6 15.1 5.3 4.2 3.9 16.3 ±3.1 pp 4.0
Leger March 12, 2023 [150] 24 19 18 2 2 ±2.49 pp 5
Nanos Research March 10, 2023 [318] 27.5 27.3 15.8 5.5 3.9 3.3 16.6 ±3.1 pp 0.2
Nanos Research March 3, 2023 [319] 28.4 27 16.2 4.9 4.3 2.6 17.1 ±3.1 pp 1.4
Research Co. February 27, 2023 [156] 33 25 15 3 3 1 20 ±3.1 pp 8
Nanos Research February 24, 2023 [320] 31.4 26.7 14.2 5.0 4.5 2.2 16.1 ±3.1 pp 4.7
Nanos Research February 17, 2023 [321] 32.3 26.1 16.1 3.8 2.9 2.1 16.8 ±3.1 pp 6.2
Leger February 12, 2023 [159] 24 21 17 3 2 ±2.5 pp 3
Nanos Research February 10, 2023 [160] 32.8 25.8 15.8 3.6 3.5 2.0 16.3 ±3.1 pp 7.0
Nanos Research February 3, 2023 [322] 31.9 26.3 14.6 4.2 4.1 1.8 17.2 ±3.1 pp 5.6
Nanos Research January 27, 2023 [323] 30.4 26.3 16.1 4.5 3.8 1.9 17.0 ±3.1 pp 4.1
Nanos Research January 20, 2023 [324] 30.2 27.1 15.2 4.7 3.9 2 16.8 ±3.1 pp 3.1
Nanos Research January 13, 2023 [168] 30 27.5 16.2 4.2 4.2 2 15.9 ±3.1 pp 2.5
Nanos Research January 6, 2023 [325] 30.6 26.6 17.5 3.9 4.1 2.4 14.8 ±3.1 pp 4
Nanos Research December 30, 2022 [326] 30.5 27.4 16.8 3.5 3.8 2.2 15.9 ±3.1 pp 3.1
Nanos Research December 23, 2022 [327] 30 27 17.6 3.8 3.6 1.8 16.0 ±3.1 pp 3
Nanos Research December 16, 2022 [328] 29 27 17.3 4.4 3.6 1.8 16.8 ±3.1 pp 2
Nanos Research December 9, 2022 [329] 27.9 27.8 16.4 3.3 2.9 2.6 19.2 ±3.1 pp 0.1
Nanos Research December 2, 2022 [330] 29.2 25.8 18.2 2.8 2.7 2 19.3 ±3.1 pp 3.4
Nanos Research November 25, 2022 [331] 29.4 25.8 18.4 3.6 2.1 2.5 18.3 ±3.1 pp 3.6

September 2022 – November 2022[edit]

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Amita Kuttner Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error
[c]
Lead
Nanos Research November 18, 2022 [332] 30.5 26.1 18.4 3.6 1.5 2.0 18.0 ±3.1 pp 4.4
Nanos Research November 11, 2022 [333] 31.0 27.3 18.0 4.1 1.6 1.4 16.6 ±3.1 pp 3.7
Nanos Research November 4, 2022 [334] 31.5 28.0 16.5 4.6 1.5 2.1 15.7 ±3.1 pp 3.5
Nanos Research October 28, 2022 [335] 30.7 28.9 15.1 4.8 1.6 3.0 15.9 ±3.1 pp 1.8
Research Co. October 26, 2022 [184] 30 24 17 4 1 2 21 ±3.1 pp 4
Nanos Research October 21, 2022 [336] 29.5 30.0 16.2 5.2 1.2 3.0 15.0 ±3.1 pp 0.5
Nanos Research October 14, 2022 [337] 29.8 30.0 14.9 3.7 0.7 2.7 18.1 ±3.1 pp 0.2
Nanos Research October 7, 2022 [338] 29.0 27.0 19.4 3.2 1.1 2.6 17.7 ±3.1 pp 2.0
Nanos Research September 30, 2022 [339] 28.2 24.8 20.8 2.9 1.1 2.6 19.6 ±3.1 pp 3.4
Nanos Research September 23, 2022 [340] 29.2 20.9 19.6 2.5 1.6 3.2 22.9 ±3.1 pp 8.3
Ipsos September 20, 2022 [341] 31 35 26 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 4
Leger September 18, 2022 [194] 24 21 17 N/A 1 3 N/A N/A 3
Nanos Research September 16, 2022 [342] 27.4 18.4 20.9 2.9 1.6 3.1 25.8 ±3.0 pp 6.5

February 2022 – September 2022[edit]

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Candice Bergen Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Amita Kuttner Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error
[c]
Lead
Nanos Research September 9, 2022 [343] 29.6 19.3 17.4 3.3 1.4 3.2 25.8 ±3.0 pp 10.3
Nanos Research September 2, 2022 [344] 31.1 18.8 16.9 3.1 1.4 3.3 25.4 ±2.9 pp 12.3
Nanos Research August 26, 2022 [345] 31.1 18.1 17.0 3.5 1.6 3.2 25.6 ±2.9 pp 13.0
Nanos Research August 19, 2022 [346] 30.1 19.2 17.1 3.6 2.2 3.4 24.4 ±2.9 pp 10.9
Nanos Research August 12, 2022 [347] 28.7 17.8 18.1 2.9 2.5 3.5 26.6 ±2.9 pp 10.6
Nanos Research August 5, 2022 [348] 26.7 18.2 19.0 3.6 3.0 3.3 26.2 ±3.0 pp 7.7
Nanos Research July 29, 2022 [349] 27.8 17.6 18.9 3.6 2.5 2.7 26.9 ±3.0 pp 8.9
Nanos Research July 22, 2022 [350] 27.3 16.6 18.8 3.7 2.3 2.7 28.7 ±3.0 pp 8.5
Nanos Research July 15, 2022 [351] 28.1 17.7 18.9 4.0 2.3 2.6 26.4 ±3.0 pp 9.2
Nanos Research July 8, 2022 [352] 29.9 18.1 17.5 3.2 2.1 2.4 26.5 ±3.0 pp 11.8
Nanos Research July 1, 2022 [353] 30.1 19.5 17.2 3.0 1.6 2.7 25.4 ±3.0 pp 10.6
Nanos Research June 24, 2022 [354] 31.0 18.5 16.9 2.9 1.7 3.8 25.3 ±3.0 pp 12.5
Nanos Research June 17, 2022 [355] 29.8 18.2 16.9 2.9 1.8 4.6 25.8 ±3.0 pp 11.6
Nanos Research June 10, 2022 [356] 29.8 19.3 16.0 3.7 2.1 4.8 24.3 ±3.1 pp 10.5
Nanos Research June 3, 2022 [357] 28.8 19.9 16.2 4.4 1.6 4.7 24.5 ±3.0 pp 8.9
Nanos Research May 27, 2022 [358] 30.7 20.6 16.5 4.5 1.6 3.9 22.2 ±3.0 pp 10.1
Nanos Research May 20, 2022 [359] 31.1 20.5 16.6 4.8 1.7 3.5 21.7 ±3.0 pp 10.6
Nanos Research May 13, 2022 [360] 31.9 20.3 17.4 4.4 1.5 2.8 21.7 ±3.1 pp 11.6
Nanos Research May 6, 2022 [361] 30.8 20.3 18.5 3.7 1.5 2.6 22.6 ±3.1 pp 10.5
Nanos Research April 29, 2022 [362] 29.7 21.5 16.8 4.4 1.6 3.2 22.9 ±3.1 pp 8.2
Nanos Research April 22, 2022 [363] 29.7 20.4 17.3 4.7 1.1 3.4 23.3 ±3.1 pp 9.3
Nanos Research April 15, 2022 [364] 29.7 19.1 17.4 4.9 1.4 4.2 23.2 ±3.1 pp 10.6
Nanos Research April 8, 2022 [365] 31.8 18.5 17.1 4.2 1.9 5.2 21.3 ±3.1 pp 13.3
Nanos Research April 1, 2022 [366] 30.0 16.9 19.0 4.1 1.8 4.8 23.3 ±3.1 pp 11.0
Nanos Research March 25, 2022 [367] 30.4 17.1 19.5 3.3 1.9 4.5 23.2 ±3.1 pp 10.9
Nanos Research March 18, 2022 [368] 30.0 18.5 19.3 3.1 1.2 4.7 23.2 ±3.1 pp 10.7
Nanos Research March 11, 2022 [369] 31.0 17.2 19.1 3.5 1.1 5.6 22.4 ±3.1 pp 11.9
Nanos Research March 4, 2022 [370] 30.6 18.0 17.5 3.2 1.1 6.1 23.4 ±3.1 pp 12.6
Nanos Research February 25, 2022 [371] 29.9 19.2 17.1 3.3 1.2 7.3 22.0 ±3.1 pp 10.7
Nanos Research February 18, 2022 [372] 28.6 19.2 16.7 3.4 1.5 8.0 22.5 ±3.1 pp 9.4

Government approval polls[edit]

Polling firm Last date of polling[a] Link Approve Disapprove Unsure/
Neither
Margin
of error[c]
Sample
size[d]
Polling method[e] Net
approval
Leger April 28, 2024 [10] 25% 69% 4% ±2.44 pp 1,610 Online –44%
Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [17] 25% 57% ±2 pp 2,300 Online –32%
Abacus Data April 9, 2024 [20] 26% 60% ±2.1 pp 2,000 Online –34%
Leger March 25, 2024 [24] 28% 66% 4% ±2.45 pp 1,605 Online –38%
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [26] 26% 59% ±1.7 pp 3,550 Online –33%
Abacus Data March 6, 2024 [31] 26% 58% ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online –32%
Leger February 25, 2024 [34] 29% 66% 4% ±2.49 pp 1,590 Online –37%
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [36] 24% 59% 18% ±2.0 pp 2,125 Online –35%
Abacus Data February 7, 2024 [39] 24% 59% 17% ±2.0 pp 2,398 Online –35%
Leger January 28, 2024 [41] 30% 63% 5% ±2.47 pp 1,579 Online –33%
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [44] 28% 58% 14% ±2.1 pp 2,199 Online –30%
Abacus Data January 9, 2024 [49] 26% 58% 16% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –32%
Leger December 17, 2023 [54] 33% 61% 5% ±2.43 pp 1,622 Online –28%
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [373] 28% 56% 16% ±2.3 pp 1,919 Online –28%
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [374] 27% 57% 16% ±2.0 pp 2,417 Online –30%
Leger November 26, 2023 [66] 29% 64% 6% ±2.51 pp 1,529 Online –35%
Leger November 12, 2023 [375] 30% 63% 7% ±2.44 pp 1,612 Online –33%
Abacus Data November 12, 2023 [376] 26% 58% 16% ±2.3 pp 2,000 Online –32%
Leger October 29, 2023 [78] 30% 63% 5% ±2.4 pp 1,632 Online –33%
Leger September 27, 2023 [89] 33% 60% 5% ±2.4 pp 1,652 Online –27%
Abacus Data September 12, 2023 [94] 29% 57% 14% ±2.1 pp 2,125 Online –28%
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [99] 31% 53% 16% ±1.7 pp 3,595 Online –22%
Abacus Data August 7, 2023 [377] 31% 54% 15% ±2.0 pp 1,650 Online –23%
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [112] 32% 51% 17% ±2.0 pp 2,486 Online –19%
Abacus Data May 3, 2023 [136] 34% 49% 17% ±2.4 pp 1,750 Online –15%
Abacus Data March 21, 2023 [146] 33% 49% 18% ±2.3 pp 1,963 Online –16%
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [154] 35% 49% 16% ±2.0 pp 2,600 Online –14%
Abacus Data February 18, 2023 [157] 34% 48% 18% ±1.6 pp 4,000 Online –14%
Abacus Data January 30, 2023 [162] 34% 49% 17% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –15%
Abacus Data January 16, 2023 [167] 34% 47% 19% ±2.2 pp 2,099 Online –13%
Abacus Data October 26, 2022 [185] 35% 47% 18% ±2.1 pp 1,500 Online –12%
Ipsos September 21, 2022 [193] 42% 58% ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online –16%
Abacus Data September 14, 2022 [201] 37% 49% 14% ±2.2 pp 1,990 Online –12%
Abacus Data August 30, 2022 [201] 36% 49% 15% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –13%
Abacus Data July 27, 2022 [201] 34% 51% 15% ±2.0 pp 2,400 Online –17%
Abacus Data July 17, 2022 [203] 38% 46% 16% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –8%
Abacus Data June 23, 2022 [203] 38% 45% 17% ±1.8 pp 3,026 Online –7%
Abacus Data May 24, 2022 [210] 40% 43% 17% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –3%
Abacus Data May 6, 2022 [213] 41% 42% 17% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –1%
Abacus Data April 9, 2022 [217] 41% 44% 15% ±2.1 pp 2,000 Online –3%
Abacus Data March 25, 2022 [219] 40% 42% 18% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –2%
Abacus Data February 22, 2022 [223] 39% 46% 15% ±1.4 pp 5,200 Online –7%
Abacus Data February 8, 2022 [227] 38% 45% 16% ±2.6 pp 1,500 Online –7%
Ipsos January 17, 2022 [378] 49% 51% ±3.5 pp 1,001 Online –2%
Abacus Data January 12, 2022 [236] 44% 40% 16% ±2.1 pp 2,200 Online +4%
Abacus Data November 30, 2021 [242] 41% 44% 15% ±2.2 pp 2,025 Online –3%
Ipsos November 15, 2021 [379] 48% 52% ±3.5 pp 1,001 Online –4%
Abacus Data October 20, 2021 [249] 42% 43% 16% ±1.9 pp 2,200 Online –1%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. ^ Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References[edit]

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