Opinion polling for the Mexican general election, 2018

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Opinion polling is being carried out prior to the Mexican general election, 2018.

The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).

Coalition backgrounds[edit]

Todos por México[edit]

PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition "Todos por México" ("Everyone for Mexico").

Por México al Frente[edit]

PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy[1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.

PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called "Por México al Frente" ("For Mexico, to the Front").[2][3][4][5]

Juntos Haremos Historia[edit]

MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD.[6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called "Juntos Haremos Historia" ("Together we'll make history").

By coalitions[edit]

Pollster Date PANPRDMC MORENAPTPES PRIPVEMNA
Independiente (Mexico).png
Other None Not mentioned
Mitofsky[7] July 2017 21.7% 16.7% 15.9% 5.5% 3.0% 37.2%
Mitofsky August 2017 21.2% 16.4% 14.8% 4% 3.9% 39.7%
Parametría[8] September 2017 32% 23% 15% 14% 16%
Reforma[9] September 2017 24% 31% 28% 8%
México Elige[10] October 2017 22.5% 36.1% 21.8% 11.4% 8.2%
El Financiero[11] November 2017 18% 24% 22% 21% 15%
El Economista[12] December 2017 23.1% 22.6% 21.4% 7.4% 0.6% 24.9%
Parametría[13] January 2018 32% 42% 26% 12% 18%
Arias Consultores[14] January 2018 18.1% 50.1% 15.5% 6.5% 9.8%
SABA[15] 4-12 Feb 2018 12.3% 38.5% 10.3% 11.3% 29%
Revista 32[16] 15-16 Feb 2018 18.1% 46.2% 18.0% 5.8% 11.8%
Revista 32[17] 19-23 Mar 2018 15.9% 44.6% 17.8% 6.6% 15.1%
Parametría[18] 23-28 Mar 2018 25% 36% 20% 7% 5% 5% 2%
Revista 32[19] 23-25 April 2018 18.1% 46.9% 13.6% 4.1% 17.3%

By candidates (January–June 2018)[edit]

Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018.
Agency Date Obrador Anaya Meade Zavala Rodríguez Other/None
Parametría[13] January 31% 19% 20% 10% 2% 19%
SDP Noticias[20] 7-9 Jan 38.1% 17.7% 26.1% 7.9% 2.9% 7.3%
Mitofsky[21] January 23.6% 20.4% 18.2% 10%
Focus Asesores[22][23] January 47% 11% 11% 5% 2% 28%
Arias Consultores[24] 23-25 Jan 56.2% 14.3% 16.3% 6.5% 2.5% 4.1%
El Universal[25] 19-25 Jan 32% 26% 16% 4% 2% 4.1%
El Financiero[26] 27-31 Jan 38% 27% 22% 7% 3% 3%
Parametría[27] 25 Jan-2 Feb 34% 23% 18% 7% 2% 16%
Mendoza Blanco[28] 2-4 Feb 30% 26% 16% 3% 2% 23%
SDP Noticias[29] 2-6 Feb 38.4% 19.5% 25.7% 7.2% 2.6% 6.8%
Mitofksy[30] 9-11 Feb 27.1% 22.3% 18.0%
Reforma[31] 8-11 Feb 33% 25% 14% 4% 2% 22%
SABA[32] 4-12 Feb 38.3% 12.5% 10.3% 8.0% 1.9% 29%
Parámetro[33] 9-11 Feb 30.5% 23.8% 23.3% 3.9% 2.0% 16.5%
Fox News[34] 9-11 Feb 40% 31% 20% 9%
Revista 32[35] 15-16 Feb 48.2% 16.3% 17.8% 4.2% 2.5% 10.9%
Massive Caller[36] February 30.55% 24.78% 15.4% 7.23% 2% 20.04%
El Pais[37] March 37.8% 29.2% 23.8% 5.7% 2.6%
Parametría[38] 24 Feb-1 Mar 35% 21% 16% 10% 5% 13%
Bloomberg[39] 8 March 42.2% 27.4% 20.6% 4% 1.6%
Indemerc[40] 8-10 March 44.1% 15.1% 10.9% 8.2% 2% 19.7%
El Financiero[41] 9-14 March 42% 23% 24% 7% 2% 2%
Arias Consultores[42] 19-23 March 47.8% 14.6% 18.1% 6.2% 13.2%
Parametría[43] 23-28 March 38% 20% 16% 13%
Gii 360[44] 30 March-3 April 43% 19% 13% 7% 18%
Berumen y Asociados[45] 3–5 April 42% 31.1% 21.9% 5%
SDP Noticias[46] 11–14 April 41.9% 19.7% 22.7% 9% 2.5%
Reforma[47] 12–15 April 48% 26% 18% 5% 3%
Bloomberg[48] 15 April 47.8% 26.6% 17.9% 5.1%
SDP Noticias[49] 25–28 April 41.4% 24.7% 22.2% 4.8% 3.1% 3.8%
Revista 32[50] 23–25 April 50.9% 17.8% 13.5% 2.2% 2.8% 13.8%
La Silla Rota[51] 25-28 April 45% 29% 18% 5% 3%
Reforma[52] 26-30 April 48% 30% 17% 3% 2%
Varela y Asociados[53] 28 April- 4 May 47.5% 33.1% 16.2% 1.7% 1.4%
El Financiero[54] 26 April- 2 May 46% 26% 20% 5% 3%
Ipsos[55] 11-15 May 43% 24% 16% 2% 15%
SDP Noticias[56] 18-19 May 42.4% 25.8% 24.2% 0.6% 3.3% 3.7%
Eje Central[57] 21-22 May 49% 26% 21% 4%
Reforma[58] 24-27 May 52% 26% 19% 4%
Parametría[59] 23-29 May 54% 24% 17% 3% 2%
Varela y Asociados[60] 30 May-4 June 50.6% 29.5% 17.6% 2.2%
BGC[61] 31 May-4 June 47% 29% 21% 3%
De Las Heras Demotecnia[62] 10-13 June 50% 25% 19% 5% 1%
Arias Consultores[63] 13-15 June 62% 19.8% 13.7% 3.3%
Reforma[64] 20-24 June 51% 27% 19% 3%
BGC[65] 22-25 June 49% 26% 21% 4%
El Financiero[66] 15-23 June 54% 21% 22% 3%
Presidential election 1 July 53.19% 22.28% 16.41% 0.06% 5.23%

By candidates (April–December 2017)[edit]

Pollsters Date Obrador Zavala Chong Mancera Rodríguez Anaya Ávila Valle Nuño Meade Other None Not mentioned
El Financiero April 2017 29% 32% 27% 8% 4%
El Universal April 2017 33% 27% 13% 6% 4%
32% 16% 6% 20%
32% 26% 6% 13%
GEA-ISA June 2017 18% 6% 4% 2% 7% 5% 4%
Reforma July 2017 31% 26% 15% 7% 1% 15% 5%
30% 26% 14% 6% 5% 1% 14% 4%
30% 27% 14% 9% 1% 14% 5%
32% 17% 8% 17% 1% 20% 5%
33% 17% 16% 8% 1% 19% 6%
El Financiero July 2017 30% 28% 24% 10% 8%
Mitofsky August 2017 25.9% 19.7% 14.8% 4.4% 4.6%
24.9% 15.4% 5.2% 3.8% 20.5%
26.3% 15.7% 4.5% 4.9% 19.8%
25.9% 18.7% 5.1% 5% 13.6%
26.2% 19.3% 5% 4.5% 12.8%
25.6% 4.9% 5.2% 20.1% 13.1%
México Elige[10] October 2017 36.7% 14.7% 19.6% 5.3% 2.2%
Reforma November 2017 31% 8% 2% 19% 17% 1% 10% 12%
GCE[67][68] December 2017 27.8% 9.7% 6.3% 4.2% 9.2% 21.5% 0.3% 7.5% 13.5%
Massive Caller[69] December 2017 27.2% 9% 9% 18.1% 20.4% 4.3% 18.2%

By political parties[edit]

Pollster Date
PRI
PAN
PRD
MORENA
PT
PVEM
MC
NA
PES
Independiente (Mexico).png
Other No-one Not mentioned
Parametría August 2015 29% 23% 9% 21% 8% 5% 2% 3%
GEA-ISA March 2016 33% 16% 7% 7% 4% 17% 18%
Mitofsky March 2016 21.5% 16.4% 10.8% 11.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 4.3% 14% 16.7%
Mitofsky May 2016 22.3% 18.6% 8.7% 12.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 4.6% 28.2%
GEA-ISA June 2016 28% 19% 5% 11% 6% 11% 21%
El Financiero June 2016 29% 28% 8% 19% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 6%
Mitofsky July 2016 19.6 20% 8.1% 12.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 1% 1.1% 2.8% 30.9%
Reforma August 2016 22% 27% 6% 18% 5% 3% 11% 8%
GEA-ISA September 2016 22% 23% 8% 9% 7% 15% 15%
Parametría September 2016 27% 30% 10% 21% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Mitofsky September 2016 19.5% 20.2% 7.8% 12.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 1% 3.3% 31.2%
El Financiero November 2016 28% 29% 11% 18% 5%
Reforma December 2016 22% 27% 5% 22% 3% 5% 11% 5%
Massive Caller January 2017 12.8% 20.48% 5.5% 21.68% 1.6% 8.5% 5.2% 23.9%
Reforma January 2017 17% 24% 10% 27% 2% 4% 10% 6%
El Financiero February 2017 22% 25% 9% 25% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 6%
Mitofsky February 2017 13% 18.8% 5.1% 15.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 3.0% 38.5%
México Elige February 2017 12.4% 21.0% 1.2% 36.9% 0.2% 0.4% 3% 0.5% 0.6% 14.5%
GEA-ISA March 2017 19% 20% 7% 15% 5% 17% 18%
El Financiero April 2017 28% 29% 10% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 4%
Excelsior April 2017 19% 21% 8% 26% 2% 24%
El Universal April 2017 13% 27% 6% 33% 4%
El Universal April 2017 13% 23% 6% 24% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 17%
Parametría[13] January 2018 25% 24% 5% 30% 12% 18%
SDP Noticias[29] 2-6 Feb 2018 20.6% 13.6% 2.8% 36.0% 1.1% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.3% 11.2% 5.4%
SABA[70] 4-12 Feb 9.4% 9.9% 1.7% 30.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 8.4% 0.6% 15.7% 16.8%
Parametría[18] 23-28 Mar 15% 15% 5% 29% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 15%
Gii 360[71] 30 March-3 April 2018 12% 14% 2% 34% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 26%

References[edit]

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  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference Lidera was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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External links[edit]