Opinion polling for the Turkish general election, November 2015
| This article is part of a series on the Turkish general election, November 2015 |
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| Sunday, 1 November 2015
Opinion polling · Electoral districts · Electoral system · Members elected |
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| Solution process · 2015 Suruç bombing · Turkey–ISIL conflict · Turkey–PKK conflict · Operation Martyr Yalçın · Counter-terrorism raids · Syrian refugee crisis · Media censorship · Presidential system · Ankara bombings | ||||
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Results
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Party
|
Votes
|
%
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MPs
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|
| AKP | ||||
| CHP | ||||
| MHP | ||||
| HDP | ||||
| Others | ||||
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Total
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550 | |||
In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.
The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.
Contents
Polling accuracy[edit]
The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.
| Party | Actual vote 7 June 2015 |
Most accurate pollster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollster | Poll date | Predicted vote | Error margin | |||
| AKP | 40.7 | ANAR | 27 May | 40.5 | ||
| CHP | 25.1 | MAK | 18-26 May | 24.9 | ||
| ORC | 30 May-1 June | 25.3 | ||||
| MHP | 16.5 | Gezici | 2 June | 16.5 | ||
| HDP | 13.0 | Konda | 30-31 May | 12.6 | ||
| Overall most accurate | ANAR | 27 May | – | |||
Controversies[edit]
According to media reports, Turkey's AK Party government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AK Party will lose seats in the election.
Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AK Party will lose power in the next election.[1]
[edit]
Graphical summary[edit]
Poll results[edit]
| Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | Election results Domestic vote only |
|||||||
| 22 Oct |
The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls
|
|||||||
| 21 Oct | Konda[2] | – | 40.9 | 30.4 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 10.5 |
| 16-20 Oct | Betimar[3] | 2,000 | 44.3 | 25.5 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 18.8 |
| 13-19 Oct | Konsensus[4] | 2,002 | 43.0 | 28.6 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 14.4 |
| 12-17 Oct | Gezici[5][6] | 4,864 | 41.3 | 27.0 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 14.3 |
| 12-17 Oct | MAK[7] | – | 43.5 | 27.8 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 15.7 |
| 12-16 Oct | Argetus[8] | 4,472 | 43.1 | 26.2 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 16.9 |
| 10-16 Oct | Perspektif[9] | 1,255 | 42.3 | 27.6 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 2.6 | 14.7 |
| 8-15 Oct | Sonar[10] | 3,000 | 40.5 | 27.3 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 13.2 |
| 10 Oct |
Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara
|
|||||||
| 5-9 Oct | Samer[11] | 4,144 | 41.4 | 26.9 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 2.4 | 14.5 |
| 4-7 Oct | MetroPoll[12] | 2,526 | 42.5 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 16.2 |
| 3-6 Oct | Andy-Ar[13] | 1,764 | 42.6 | 27.1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 15.5 |
| 3-4 Oct | Gezici[14][15] | 4,860 | 40.8 | 27.6 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 13.2 |
| 28 Sep-1 Oct | TÜSİAR[16] | 3,041 | 43.0 | 26.4 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 16.6 |
| 30 Sep | Konda[17] | – | 41.7 | 24.8 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 16.9 |
| 26-27 Sep | Gezici[18] | 4,860 | 39.8 | 28.2 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 11.6 |
| 17-24 Sep | LRC[19] | 2,425 | 38.9 | 26.0 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 12.9 |
| 23 Sep | AKAM[20][21] | 1,214 | 38.9 | 27.7 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 11.2 |
| 19-23 Sep | MAK[22] | 5,500 | 43.7 | 26.7 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 17.0 |
| 22 Sep | ||||||||
| 19-21 Sep | Ada[23] | 3,000 | 44.7 | 27.6 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 17.1 |
| 18 Sep | ||||||||
| 16 Sep | Andy-Ar[24][25] | – | 42.9 | 27.0 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 1.4 | 15.9 |
| 12-15 Sep | ORC[26][27] | 2,760 | 44.0 | 27.8 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 16.2 |
| 2-15 Sep | KURD-TEK[28][29] | 5,348 | 38.5 | 26.7 | 17.5 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 11.8 |
| 12-13 Sep | Gezici[30] | 5,000 | 39.3 | 28.1 | 16.8 | 13.5 | 2.3 | 11.2 |
| 5-13 Sep | Konsensus[31] | 1,500 | 43.3 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 15.7 |
| 27 Aug-13 Sep | ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[32] | 157,907 | 44.2 | 25.4 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 18.8 |
| 12 Sep | ||||||||
| 5-12 Sep | Sonar[33] | 2,500 | 38.2 | 28.0 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 10.2 |
| 2-5 Sep | MetroPoll[34] | 2,540 | 41.4 | 27.3 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 14.1 |
| 3 Sep | Varyans[35] | 15,000 | 43.9 | 26.2 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 17.7 |
| 2 Sep | KamuAR[36] | 5,249 | 42.3 | 26.0 | 18.7 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 16.3 |
| 28 Aug | ||||||||
| 22-25 Aug | ORC[37] | 2,450 | 43.7 | 27.5 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 16.2 |
| 24 Aug |
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015
|
|||||||
| 24 Aug | AKAM[38] | 1,624 | 39.7 | 28.5 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| 22-23 Aug | Gezici[39] | 4,860 | 38.9 | 27.8 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 11.1 |
| 19-23 Aug | Argetus[40] | 2,960 | 42.6 | 25.5 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 17.1 |
| 21 Aug | MetroPoll[41] | 2,520 | 41.7 | 25.5 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 2.4 | 16.2 |
| 20 Aug | CHP[42] | – | 38.8 | 28.7 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 4.1 | 10.1 |
| 18 Aug |
AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the
President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down |
|||||||
| 18 Aug | Gezici[43] | – | 39.2 | 26.4 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 4.1 | 12.8 |
| 13 Aug | ||||||||
| 13 Aug | AK Party[44] | – | 43.8 | 25.5 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 2.8 | 18.3 |
| 13 Aug | Andy-Ar[45] | 1,504 | 42.8 | 27.0 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 1.5 | 15.8 |
| 7-9 Aug | ORC[46] | 1,580 | 44.1 | 26.8 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 17.3 |
| 4 - 8 Aug | MAK[47] | 5,500 | 44.7 | 25.3 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 19.4 |
| 24 Jul - 4 Aug | SONAR[48] | 3,500 | 42.9 | 25.2 | 17.0 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 17.2 |
| 27 Jul | AKAM[49] | 1,412 | 39.9 | 27.5 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 4.4 | 12.4 |
| 21 Jul | ||||||||
| 20 Jul |
A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) |
|||||||
| 11-15 Jul | ORC[50] | 3,200 | 43.5 | 27.0 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 16.5 |
| 4-5 Jul | Gezici[51] | 4,860 | 40.1 | 26.1 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 4.9 | 14.0 |
| 29 Jun | Andy-Ar[52] | 1,556 | 42.8 | 27.3 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 15.5 |
| 24 Jun | MetroPoll[53] | 2,483 | 41.6 | 25.1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 4.2 | 16.5 |
| 8 Jun | IPSOS[54] | 1,750 | 45.0 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 |
| 7 Jun | June 2015 general election Domestic vote only |
45,121,773 | 40.7 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 15.6 |
| 12 Jun 2011 | June 2011 general election Domestic vote only |
42,813,896 | 49.8 | 26.0 | 13.0 | – | 11.2 | 23.8 |
Seat predictions[edit]
| Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-20 Oct | Betimar[55] | 2,000 |
278 / 550
|
132 / 550
|
61 / 550
|
79 / 550
|
6 |
| 17-18 Oct | Gezici[56][57] | 4,864 |
262 / 550
|
137 / 550
|
74 / 550
|
77 / 550
|
Hung |
| 3-4 Oct | Gezici[58] | 4,860 |
256 / 550
|
141 / 550
|
73 / 550
|
80 / 550
|
Hung |
| 26-27 Sep | Gezici[59] | 4,860 |
246 / 550
|
140 / 550
|
87 / 550
|
77 / 550
|
Hung |
| 23 Sep | AKAM[60] | 1,214 |
243 / 550
|
149 / 550
|
72 / 550
|
86 / 550
|
Hung |
| 27 Aug-13 Sep | ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[61] | 157,907 |
276 / 550
|
129 / 550
|
65 / 550
|
80 / 550
|
2 |
| 24 Aug | AKAM[38] | 1,624 |
250 / 550
|
144 / 550
|
68 / 550
|
88 / 550
|
Hung |
| 22-23 Aug | Gezici[62] | 4,860 |
240 / 550
|
142 / 550
|
85 / 550
|
83 / 550
|
Hung |
| 21 Aug | MetroPoll[41] | 2,520 |
259 / 550
|
133 / 550
|
74 / 550
|
84 / 550
|
Hung |
| 20 Aug | CHP[42] | – |
238 / 550
|
149 / 550
|
76 / 550
|
86 / 550
|
Hung |
| 27 Jul | AKAM[49] | 1,412 |
254 / 550
|
147 / 550
|
63 / 550
|
86 / 550
|
Hung |
| 7 Jun | June 2015 general election | – |
258 / 550
|
132 / 550
|
80 / 550
|
80 / 550
|
Hung |
| 12 Jun 2011 | June 2011 general election | – |
327 / 550
|
135 / 550
|
53 / 550
|
35 / 550
|
104 |
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ Gezici research company says its pollsters detained on the job
- ^ http://www.businessht.com.tr/guncel/haber/1143046-kondanin-son-anketinden-sasirtici-sonuclar
- ^ http://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/turkiye/son-secim-anketinde-ak-parti-tek-basina-iktidar/7
- ^ http://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/turkiye/1-kasim-2015-secimleri-icin-konsensusun-secim-anketi/2
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/391417/1/Gezici_Arastirma_dan_son_secim_anketi.html
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/391417/3/Gezici_Arastirma_dan_son_secim_anketi.html
- ^ http://www.gazetevatan.com/mak-in-son-secim-anketinde-partilerin-oylari-875196-gundem/htm
- ^ http://www.iha.com.tr/haber-iste-son-secim-anketi-504673/
- ^ http://perspektifs.com/ekim-anket-sonucu/
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/1-kasim-gunu-ufukta-yine-koalisyon-var-961853/
- ^ http://www.ssamer.com/Rapor_Detay-Ekim_2015_Türkiye_Geneli_Seçim_Araştırması_-1021-3.html
- ^ http://www.metropoll.com.tr/upload/content/files/1788-turkiyenin-nabzi-ekim-2015.pdf
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/yandas-ankette-bile-akp-dusuk-cikti-952942/?utm_source=sm_fb&utm_medium=free&utm_campaign=gundem
- ^ http://www.todayszaman.com/latest-news_turkish-poll-shows-ruling-ak-party-support-short-of-majority_401564.html
- ^ https://twitter.com/mrtgezici/status/654586958547668992
- ^ http://www.tusiar.com/FileUpload/bs313608/File/secime_1_ay_kala_turkiye_de_son_siyasi_durum_arastirmasi.pdf
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/siyaset/379007/KONDA_dan_1_Kasim_secimleri_icin_bomba_anket.html
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/381445/2/AKP___40_in_altinda.html
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/381445/2/AKP___40_in_altinda.html
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/secim-anketinde-sasirtan-sonuclar-cikti-942267/6/
- ^ http://www.avrasyaarastirma.com/?Syf=4&Fa=4&Id=251486
- ^ http://www.makdanismanlik.org/yonetim/pdfler/MAK%20DANI%C5%9EMANLIK%20EYL%C3%9CL%202015%20S%C4%B0YAS%C4%B0%20G%C3%9CNDEM%20ARA%C5%9ETIRMASI.docx
- ^ http://www.milliyet.com.tr/milletvekili-listeleri-sonrasi-ilk/siyaset/detay/2124389/default.htm
- ^ http://www.haberler.com/andy-ar-baskani-secmen-mhp-ye-yonelmeye-basladi-7696744-haberi/
- ^ The source only includes polling results including undecided voters to give the following results: AKP 35.1%, CHP 22.1%, MHP 13.0%, HDP 10.5% and others 1.2%, with 18.1% undecided voters. The undecided voters have been redistributed proportionally among the parties in this poll.
- ^ http://www.turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/fotogaleri/ak_parti_tek_basina_iktidar_olabilecek_mi_iste_son_anket-3562.aspx?O=8
- ^ http://www.turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/fotogaleri/ak_parti_tek_basina_iktidar_olabilecek_mi_iste_son_anket-3562.aspx?O=1
- ^ http://t24.com.tr/yazarlar/celal-baslangic/sinirotesinden-secim-anketi-akp-yuzde-38lerde-hdp-15e-dayandi,12757
- ^ Poll takes into account overseas results
- ^ http://www.diken.com.tr/gezici-arastirmasi-yuzde-41lik-kesim-kaos-ortamindan-erdogani-sorumlu-tutuyor/
- ^ http://www.milliyet.com.tr/son-secim-anketi-aciklandi/siyaset/detay/2120031/default.htm
- ^ http://haberay.net/4-farkli-sirket-arastirdi-basbakan-talimat-verdi-2103g-p5.htm
- ^ http://www.internethaber.com/son-erken-secim-anketi-sonuclari-sonar-acikladi-813693h.htm
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/369011/9/Metropoll_un_son_arastirmasinda_cikan_cok_carpici_sonuclar.html
- ^ http://www.internethaber.com/son-secim-anketinde-2-partiye-buyuk-sok-811113h.htm
- ^ https://twitter.com/KamuARarastirma/status/639061524917714944
- ^ http://www.haberler.com/birinci-yilini-dolduran-erdogan-a-destek-yuzde-7636544-haberi/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_campaign=facebook_hc
- ^ a b http://m.sondakika.com/haber/haber-hdp-nin-anketinde-ak-parti-ve-mhp-ye-kotu-haber-7623590/
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/akpnin-oyu-11-puan-eridi-18-vekil-gidici-921492/?utm_source=sm_fb&utm_medium=free&utm_campaign=gundem
- ^ http://www.turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/fotogaleri/secim_karari_sonrasi_yapilan_son_anketin_sonucu-3405.aspx?O=15
- ^ a b http://t24.com.tr/haber/metropollun-son-anketine-gore-hdpnin-oy-orani-yuzde-15-bandina-dayandi,307491
- ^ a b "Kılıçdaroğlu'nun masasındaki son anket". Haber7. 30 September 2014. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi - (Fotoğraf) İşte son seçim anketi". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 18 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ turkiyegazetesi editor (13 August 2015). "İşte son seçim anketi! AK Parti'nin oyu yükselişte". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Türkiye Gazetesi". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 21 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ http://www.orcarastirma.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AĞUSTOS-2015-GÜNDEM-ARAŞTIRMASI-RAPORU.pdf
- ^ "7 Haziran'da güldüren araştırma şirketine göre son oy oranları". BirGun.net. 10 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi - SONAR anketinde sürpriz sonuçlar". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 5 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ a b "‘Erken seçim’den tek başına iktidar çıkar mı?". Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Support for AK Party increases as majority calls for early elections". DailySabah. 23 July 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Seçim sonrası anketinden flaş sonuçlar". sozcu.com.tr. 9 July 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Erken seçimde oyunu artıracak 2 parti". Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "İşte erken seçim anketi". sozcu.com.tr. 24 June 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ "Seçimlerden sonra ilk araştırma…". sozcu.com.tr. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
- ^ http://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/turkiye/son-secim-anketinde-ak-parti-tek-basina-iktidar/7
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/391417/1/Gezici_Arastirma_dan_son_secim_anketi.html
- ^ http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/foto_galeri/391417/3/Gezici_Arastirma_dan_son_secim_anketi.html
- ^ https://twitter.com/mrtgezici/status/654586958547668992
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/iste-son-yapilan-anket-sonuclari-950887/2/
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/secim-anketinde-sasirtan-sonuclar-cikti-942267/7/
- ^ http://www.milliyet.com.tr/her-kapiyi-tek-tek-calin/siyaset/ydetay/2121029/default.htm
- ^ http://www.sozcu.com.tr/2015/gundem/akpnin-oyu-11-puan-eridi-18-vekil-gidici-921492/?utm_source=sm_fb&utm_medium=free&utm_campaign=gundem